2025 Golf Handicapping Thread....

Bombed some unders once I saw the early scoring. Paid 10 cents or so but seems like players getting after it early.
 
Went big on SS under 69.5. Missing those early 5s going to cost him. Don't see anyone scoring anymore today
 
I'm going to pivot to the overs for the final round....I think it's going to play tougher than they're pricing it.

Pebble Rd4

Round robin'd x2 on underdog

Scottie O 67.5
Wyndham O 69.5
Speith O 69.5
Sungjae O 69
Rai O 69.5
Hovland U 5.5 Birdies
 
Rd4 con't

1u each

Straka +225 ov Rory; Lowry
Rose +200 ov Tom Kim; Davis
Eckroat +180 ov Henley; Glover
Hojgaard +180 ov Day; Hodges
 
Pebble Rd4 con't

4.5u

Scottie--Top 10 finish (ties paid) -150

...if I'm offered Scheffler to maintain/improve his placing in a tourney entering the final round, in sub-par conditions, with a bunch of players above him who can suffer the 'Sunday Scaries', I'm fiduciarily obligated to take it.
 
laopadak said:
Great price on Scotty @chipnotized best I can find is -200. Likely still playing it in a parlay
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It seems suspiciously low, but I'm trying not to look a gift horse in the mouth.

GL out there today, hopefully JT and neck-beard can shoot their way through the chaos and back into the top 20 for us.
 
gps_3 said:
Took last week off after a disastrous AMEX. I'm not a huge fan of this tournament, because even as iconic as the course is, I get tired of them telling me how great it is when it's overcast and 50 degrees. But now that we have all the good players in it, I am forced to pay attention. Not sure how much tourney history helps due to everything pre-2024 had a pretty weak field. And last year was a 54 hole finish. I made fade Clark as the main reason he won was the shortened tournament and the fact he shot a 60 in the 2nd round. I'll pay to see him do that again.

Pebble and Spyglass are both short by tour standards and have the smallest greens on the schedule, so it usually boils down to a ball-striking competition. If he's not too rusty, Scheffler should be in the mix. I haven't looked, but maybe his prices are tolerable due to coming off the surgery? I want to like Ludvig, but his drop last week is concerning. I think I read that he got sick, so maybe it's a one off. No interest in Spieth as I'll have to see him play like a world class player again before I believe it. No weak field to beat up on like he did before 2023

One and done I have Morikawa for now. I've missed 2 cuts in a row in my pool, so the no cut is nice, but I need a big finish so I don't get too far behind. I am open to switching however
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I completely forgot to post my plays, and of course they are looking pretty good going into round 4.
 
chipnotized said:
It seems suspiciously low, but I'm trying not to look a gift horse in the mouth.

GL out there today, hopefully JT and neck-beard can shoot their way through the chaos and back into the top 20 for us.
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Scotty top 10 is a good bet today. He’s -150ish vs Rors which is another great bet.

Need JT, Cantlay and Scotty to make a run today.

GL today
 
Dead heat places have Scheff t10 at -150, no dead heat are -200 and up after looking all over. Probably worth laying it with the DH rules at those prices if you're going to play it, I'm not. Just going to bet some live stuff based on conditions.
 
Rose not good enough odds. Wanted 20-1. Took a flier on SS at 48-1. Probably a 2% shot but figure if the leaders struggle and he shoots under front 9 he has a shot.
 
Starting to think the coverages are in with the books with the round totals. Yesterday was all about how scoring was as easy as Thursday and they didn’t know if weather was coming in. Today all they did was talk about the 25 mph winds coming in that never came to.
 
Inspekdah said:
Starting to think the coverages are in with the books with the round totals. Yesterday was all about how scoring was as easy as Thursday and they didn’t know if weather was coming in. Today all they did was talk about the 25 mph winds coming in that never came to.
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Those flags are all over the place. Just not like yesterday which was predicted 3 days before the tournament started.
 
KJ said:
Those flags are all over the place. Just not like yesterday which was predicted 3 days before the tournament started.
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All morning yesterday they said it was a birdie fest and no weather likely for hours. 5 minutes later it was a Cat 1.

Today they said it was coming again and looks like a perfect day all day long.
 
Inspekdah said:
All morning yesterday they said it was a birdie fest and no weather likely for hours. 5 minutes later it was a Cat 1.

Today they said it was coming again and looks like a perfect day all day long.
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I can't get a read from these folks....guess I just buy what the forecast is selling but that's definitely not the easiest thing to do up there on the Coast especially

Just hard to gauge and we get to do it again in two weeks back at Torrey Pines

Next week will just be whatever we've done forever. Likely calm with a chance of nudity
 
BTW, the Tour just ruined this event last year making it a signature event and eliminating the amateurs Saturday & Sunday. Another casualty of Monahan's regime.
 
Gandolf said:
BTW, the Tour just ruined this event last year making it a signature event and eliminating the amateurs Saturday & Sunday. Another casualty of Monahan's regime.
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I won’t speak for others, but I’ve enjoyed not having to watch 75 year old Bill Murray act like a clown for 4 hours
 
Gandolf said:
BTW, the Tour just ruined this event last year making it a signature event and eliminating the amateurs Saturday & Sunday. Another casualty of Monahan's regime.
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The fields were really weak the past few years.

Very tough situation tbh.
 
It was a celebrity-oriented event, going all the way back to the Bing Crosby years. Having the stars play Pebble on Saturday made it worth the watch, regardless of the field strength. It was different than the usual grind of golf tournaments. Now, not so much.
 
Gandolf said:
It was a celebrity-oriented event, going all the way back to the Bing Crosby years. Having the stars play Pebble on Saturday made it worth the watch, regardless of the field strength. It was different than the usual grind of golf tournaments. Now, not so much.
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And now we get the Genesis at Torrey Pines. I know that's not the fault of the PGA but it's all just feels sleezy in golf world
 
Congrats to those that made coin over the weekend / ATT. Posted plays for ATT -17.1u (actually more loses as I had a couple of big futures that didn't cash).

Tough start to the 2025 golf season for me.

Sentry +2.5u
Sony +1.8u
Amex -18.5
Farmers -6.7
ATT -17.1
January total: -38u

Prior to this week, it was fine as other sports cashed nicely but finally caught up to me this week. Long season so it'll ebb and flow. Not overly concerned but honestly expected/expecting + money on a monthly basis.
 
Gandolf said:
It was a celebrity-oriented event, going all the way back to the Bing Crosby years. Having the stars play Pebble on Saturday made it worth the watch, regardless of the field strength. It was different than the usual grind of golf tournaments. Now, not so much.
Click to expand...
I'll have to disagree on watching the celebs playing being entertaining. Maybe it's just Bill Murray. But I also don't care about watching Ray Romano slicing into the ocean or Condi Rice topping one down the hill on #7. And like most of the pro-ams, it seems there are far more CEO/CFO/COO's of the sponsors than any celebs anyway
 
gps_3 said:
I'll have to disagree on watching the celebs playing being entertaining. Maybe it's just Bill Murray. But I also don't care about watching Ray Romano slicing into the ocean or Condi Rice topping one down the hill on #7. And like most of the pro-ams, it seems there are far more CEO/CFO/COO's of the sponsors than any celebs anyway
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That's is a great point -- really less celebrities lately -- just corporate names we barely know
 
gps_3 said:
I'll have to disagree on watching the celebs playing being entertaining. Maybe it's just Bill Murray. But I also don't care about watching Ray Romano slicing into the ocean or Condi Rice topping one down the hill on #7. And like most of the pro-ams, it seems there are far more CEO/CFO/COO's of the sponsors than any celebs anyway
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The corporate guys dominate now for sure. The celebs got sliced off when the field size was reduced. Money talks, fun walks.
 
If you are comfortable with betting on him as a favorite so be it

No chance in hell I'm betting on him after reconstructive hand surgery until he wins at least two events. That dude needs his hands to operate, why is that getting a pass simply because how good he has been in the past? That matters a lot for me.

Probably the best forecast for this tournament since I've lived here which is a lot of years. Low scores commence.
 
Ground out a couple units at Pebble, mostly thanks to the soft lines at underdog. I'm destined to be collared there in the near future...didn't even attempt to season the account.

Waste Management Phoenix Open

2u

4-teamer +314

Make Cut

Clanton -200
Min Woo -225
Bobby Mac -250
Theegala -275

1u each

Mccarty--Top 40 (ties paid) +190
Hoffman--Top 40 (ties paid) +105

I anticipate a whole bunch of Scottie exposure tied to superbowl props and some underdog round robin score wagers along the way.

Swing it easy boys.
 
Forecast wise, it's always been a pullover if you go early and make sure you're fine tying it around the waist when it heats up. Frost delays some years. There will be none of that this year, it will be a comfy temp from dusk til dawn and everything in between. No wind. No frost. Low scores.
 
KJ said:
Forecast wise, it's always been a pullover if you go early and make sure you're fine tying it around the waist when it heats up. Frost delays some years. There will be none of that this year, it will be a comfy temp from dusk til dawn and everything in between. No wind. No frost. Low scores.
Click to expand...

Low 90s in the afternoon not a problem? Greens should be fine?
 
aplous said:
Headed to PHX shortly, will be on the 16th on Saturday. Weather looks amazing after last’s shitshow.
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Enjoy, assume you have a box ticket? Make surre to find the resident bookkeeper if so. Sat on 16 is better than Vegas for MM if you're with the right people. Just hope the Sat pin isn't back left. That sucks.
 
Got a late start but here's what I have:

Fitzpatrick EV over MacIntyre
Sahith -110 over An

Top 10:
JT +150
Burns +235
Sahith +450

Top 20:
Billy Ho +225
Fitz +250
Hoge +300
Hoffman +350
Knapp +450

Rolling with Sam Burns in my one and done
 
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