2025 Golf Handicapping Thread....

[chipnotized]

Putter Regression Plays

Rd3 Matchups
1u each

Hoey ov Hodges -110
Fishburn -0.5 ov Hodges +103
...I don't think Hodges carries the hot flat stick into moving day

Keegan ov Deki +118
Tom Kim ov Deki +103
...fading Deki in a possible stiff breeze

Futures add-ons

1.5u
Montgomery Top 20 (ties paid) +1000
...I'm looking at 10-1 as a gift for the best putter on tour (putts per round) that's starting the weekend 3 strokes out of the top 20

1u
Kohles Top 20 (ties paid) +200
...he's got the short game to stay in the mix while the leaderboard shakes up

 

[Teapot9]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1877868477232370160

 

[laopadak]

Late add rd.3 Smalley under 69.5 -150, 5u (FD)

 

[laopadak]

2-1-1 rd.2 +5u. -1u for the tourney. Connors came thru, missed the juiced 68.5 on Bobby Mac, played under 67.5 and paid the price, ugh.

Looking to add rd.3. GL this weekend

Rd.3 add- McCarthy under 68.5 -140 5.5u (FD)

 

[laopadak]

1-1 rd.3 -2.2u, -3.2u for the tourney. Looks like same wind conditions tomorrow. Good night in the NFL so getting this one in early.

Rd.4 Theegala under 68.5 -140 6.6u (FD)

Rd.4 add- JJ top 5 (ties paid) / Bills -2, -104 6u (MGM)

GL on your Sunday plays

 

[laopadak]

Sony rd.4 add Fishburn under 68.5 +105 5u (DK)

 

[B.A.R.]

Nick Taylor missing four foot birdie putts on 15 and 16 will make this a restless night.

+8000 would have been a nice way to start the season

 

[B.A.R.]

Nick Taylor missing four foot birdie putts on 15 and 16 will make this a restless night.

+8000 would have been a nice way to start the season

Of course chips in for eagle on 18!!!

Maybe playoff.

 

[B.A.R.]

Issue is, I tried to bet Echavarria when he was on 14.

Guy was plus 3800 then

Hit a terrible shot -- I waited -- holed long par and went down to 875

Ugh. Almost had 2 playoff participants (potentially)

 

[laopadak]

Sounds like you hit +6000 @B.A.R. If so, that’s friggin awesome

 

[B.A.R.]

Sounds like you hit +6000 @B.A.R. If so, that’s friggin awesome

+8000

Even better!!

Thanks.

I bet Nico +250 with both Spaun and Jaeger tee shots not in fairway too but obviously Nick the bigger payout.

Unreal finish by Taylor.

Still shaking

 

[laopadak]

+8000

Even better!!

Thanks.

I bet Nico +250 with both Spaun and Jaeger tee shots not in fairway too but obviously Nick the bigger payout.

Unreal finish by Taylor.

Still shaking

Wow, unreal win. Congrats.

 

[chipnotized]

+8000

Even better!!

Thanks.

I bet Nico +250 with both Spaun and Jaeger tee shots not in fairway too but obviously Nick the bigger payout.

Unreal finish by Taylor.

Still shaking

Beauty work grand poobah! Nothing like banking a little house money in week 2!

 

[B.A.R.]

Beauty work grand poobah! Nothing like banking a little house money in week 2!

There's a backstory here of why I even capped this tournament.... But it sure paid off!

 

[B.A.R.]

I'll be capping AMEX heavy for the above reason and remember to share the outrights

Fwiw, I had 6 outrights.

4 missed cut by one stroke.

Pendrith was the other.

 

[chipnotized]

I'll be capping AMEX heavy for the above reason and remember to share the outrights

Fwiw, I had 6 outrights.

4 missed cut by one stroke.

Pendrith was the other.

My California geography is a bit rusty...is La Quinta quite a ways from LA? No danger of the fires postponing the tourney?

 

[B.A.R.]

My California geography is a bit rusty...is La Quinta quite a ways from LA? No danger of the fires postponing the tourney?

It's about 2 hours east of the LA area I believe.

 

[HUNT]

+8000

Even better!!

Thanks.

I bet Nico +250 with both Spaun and Jaeger tee shots not in fairway too but obviously Nick the bigger payout.

Unreal finish by Taylor.

Still shaking

Nice hitttt. Wild. Just awesome.

 

[laopadak]

2-1 Rd.4 Sony +5u, +1.8u for the tourney and will take the small win, all day, into the next.

 

[laopadak]

I'll be capping AMEX heavy for the above reason and remember to share the outrights

Fwiw, I had 6 outrights.

4 missed cut by one stroke.

Pendrith was the other.

Congrats again on the big W big guy. I struggle with outrights and even selecting top dog on these tight leaderboards come Sundays. Curious to hear your thoughts on selecting Taylor live, what you saw on the tube, what stats stuck out.

 

[laopadak]

AMEX has that three course meal (no pun intended), alternating with the final 2 rounds played on the same track, I believe. I was going through last years golf thread for notes etc. You may be surprised on what notes from that thread might help as the season progresses.

Gonna tread lightly this week but there's certainly some winners that I'll be hunting. GL this week boys.

 

[B.A.R.]

Congrats again on the big W big guy. I struggle with outrights and even selecting top dog on these tight leaderboards come Sundays. Curious to hear your thoughts on selecting Taylor live, what you saw on the tube, what stats stuck out.

I had Taylor pre tournament.

Pendrith
Kirk
Kim
Clanton

Was also tracking Henley and Connors.

The basic reason I was so invested is I was helping a few buddies with their DFS prep. They are well into a contest right now that will wrap up over two more tournaments. This week was a huge cutdown to the top 75 so any help I could give I was going to.

Anyways, I was more looking from that angle than outrights. After I finished that work I decided to throw quarter units on those because if someone did win I would have kicked myself lol.

My preparation...

A lot of reading --

I looked back at the Fall series and late season quite a bit.

Past history was big for me as well.

As far as the course -- you had to drive the ball pretty well (doesn't have to be long) and take advantage of the TWO par fives.

Medium range putting was a big thing as well.

I'll grab my Taylor notes once I get back home.

My guys are VERY happy though as they used the Taylor pick (among their 6)and that got them into qualifying.

 

[B.A.R.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1878847772335464730

 

[B.A.R.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1878835309749866851

 

[B.A.R.]

Finau
Burns
Xander
Cantlay
Sunjae
Clark

Decent top of the tour turnout. We've had years with maybe 1 top 25 guy out here.

 

[B.A.R.]

The weather looks perfect out there.

70s and sunny with very little wind this weekend

 

[gps_3]

I had a Sony to forget. Lost a little. Split my matchups, and I was in position to sweep my top 10/20s until Harman and McNealy farted around on Sunday. Keegan cashed though

Looking at AMEX, I started with my one and done prep. Looks like Burns, Finau and Cantlay all have a pretty good record here, and I'm not really concerned about burning them here since they don't really move the needle for majors. May keep Big Tone for that Michigan tournament in mid July or whenever it is. Burns could have won last year, but he hit 2 water balls in the last few holes to open the door for Dunlap

 

[B.A.R.]

I had a Sony to forget. Lost a little. Split my matchups, and I was in position to sweep my top 10/20s until Harman and McNealy farted around on Sunday. Keegan cashed though

Looking at AMEX, I started with my one and done prep. Looks like Burns, Finau and Cantlay all have a pretty good record here, and I'm not really concerned about burning them here since they don't really move the needle for majors. May keep Big Tone for that Michigan tournament in mid July or whenever it is. Burns could have won last year, but he hit 2 water balls in the last few holes to open the door for Dunlap

Good idea on Tony.

I'd save since he at least came out and refuted the LIV rumor.

He plays well there and I can't imagine him skipping smaller tournaments with all the lawsuits etc stuff going on. Those are nice purses.

 

[KJ]

Good idea on Tony.

I'd save since he at least came out and refuted the LIV rumor.

He's one that does seem to bring it later in the year as well. For years I've found that there are a lot of guys that play well on the WC swing then just fall off the planet once they go to FL. Finau has always seemed to still keep it together for the Summer months.

He plays well there and I can't imagine him skipping smaller tournaments with all the lawsuits etc stuff going on. Those are nice purses.

 

[B.A.R.]

Xander WD apparently

 

[gps_3]

Good idea on Tony.

I'd save since he at least came out and refuted the LIV rumor.

He plays well there and I can't imagine him skipping smaller tournaments with all the lawsuits etc stuff going on. Those are nice purses.

Nice win with Taylor by the way. It's been a long time since I've hit an outright. Of course, I don't play them very often

I typically don't like to play too many matchups on tournaments with multiple courses, and I'm assuming it's a 54 hole cut? At least here there's very little chance of weather variance by day or wave

 

[B.A.R.]

Nice win with Taylor by the way. It's been a long time since I've hit an outright. Of course, I don't play them very often

I typically don't like to play too many matchups on tournaments with multiple courses, and I'm assuming it's a 54 hole cut? At least here there's very little chance of weather variance by day or wave

Yes 54 holes

This will be the best weather you could ask for.

70 and no wind most of the time from what I saw.

 

[KJ]

Air quality and lows in the 40s can be a thing. I mean we had a freeze advisory this morning and it was 37 but felt like 15 according to my weather app. It's so close to LA County that smoke can easily come into play this weekend.

 

[KJ]

No wind at least but low humidity can be a blessing and a curse but at least sun a decent mid day temps at least.

 

[KJ]

Do winners still shoot in the 30 unders here? I honestly have no recollection of this tournament the last few years.

 

[B.A.R.]

Do winners still shoot in the 30 unders here? I honestly have no recollection of this tournament the last few years.

Post #74


One huge note -- this hasn't been a 5 round tournament since 2012.

 

[B.A.R.]

A lot of capping so far for DFS and outrights ....

Mold that into matchups perhaps tomorrow...

Thoughts on any of the following guys?


Wyndham Clark
Burns
Cantlay
Hoge
Griffin
Glover
Kirk
Poston
Vegas
Smalley
Cauley
M. Kim
Bez


We'll start there. A few others sorta of sticking out...

 

[B.A.R.]

Methods for handicapping this earlier tournament...


*History at these courses
*Current form in '25
*Late season and especially fall form
*Putting
*Par 4 scoring

Let me know thoughts @laopadak and others...

 

[gps_3]

Methods for handicapping this earlier tournament...


*History at these courses
*Current form in '25
*Late season and especially fall form
*Putting
*Par 4 scoring

Let me know thoughts @laopadak and others...

This tournament and a few others really are just birdie-fests, and Rahm famously called it a BS putting competition. I would think birdie % could have a correlation to success here. A name not on your list that I'm interested in is Harry Hall. He's been playing really well and he had a ton of birdies at Sony

 

[laopadak]

Methods for handicapping this earlier tournament...


*History at these courses
*Current form in '25
*Late season and especially fall form
*Putting
*Par 4 scoring

Let me know thoughts @laopadak and others...

Appreciate you putting forth more info and thoughts on the process. My primary concentration in golf are the round over/under rounds, round match-ups and live finishing positions throughout the tourney.

Weather- Seem to do much better in average to good conditions. My plays tend to suffer when the players suffer to score. This is also because I mostly play under rounds as I want to cheer on these guys to do well.

Recent form- From previous week to past 4-5 starts. There are so many players weekly and I think you can gain some insight on how they'll likely perform by looking at individual rounds. A blow-up hole or two, not birdieing par 5's, finishing a round strong after a slow start can lead to a bounce back/better following round.

Course history, total score for past results give insight on what's typical, average if the weather complies.
I also take tee times into consideration. Playing very early myself, mornings are usually very calm (as weather gets better, into the season), less distractions, people are generally fresh in the morning. Early tee times can generally result in a better score.

Honestly can say I don't look at stats that deep pre-tourney but do pay attention to them as the week progresses. More of a feel player from watching live, commentary notes, body language, reviewing current round/result that can lead to bounce back or back to earth round.

Need to integrate some of your methods if I start picking out rights but not sure that's going to happen soon. Just always feel like I'm behind the eight ball when I have out rights in place for the week. Rather start with 1-2 larger, juiced bets that I'm confident in, adjust from there and if the feel for tourney is there, throw some long shots in the equation as the week progresses.

 

[B.A.R.]

Love it.

I'll be heavily involved in over unders again this year as well.

 

[B.A.R.]

Outrights:

Smalley 11500
Hoge 6000
Hall 5000
Kim 11000
Glover 11000
W. Clark 3000 (half unit)
Cauley 9000


Bud might be out ? I dunno

Small on those outrights this week -- actually like a few more but not commiting much this week. Clark I did a half unit on... Others much smaller.


Three matches as well, full tournament.





3 guys I like a lot this week -- vs 3 I'm not very high on this week. Rare Max G fade.

Harry Hall + money is weird to me.

No round scoring yet....get some data from each course tomorrow and go from there.

Historically the last 8 years we see PGA West as the stingiest (if you want to call it that) of the 3.

 

[B.A.R.]

JT, Cantlay, Cam Young and Burns will all have good weeks.

Im should too.

I'm just hoping to have one of these value guys soar past them.

Shall see.

Feels like a Wyndham week to me.

Don't forget the cut is after 54 holes.

Other guys in lineups:

Kizzire
Cam
Cantlay
Burns
Griffin


Alright, enjoy the tournament.

 

[CHSGTMD]

Great stuff from all and thanks, always check in here

I am liking Echavarria in match ups top 10 and win this week

 

[chipnotized]

Dropped a few units at the Sony and not looking like a lot of pre-flop action at the Amex...tailing @laopadak live plays will be the strategy this week.

2u

3-teamer +368

Top 40

Si Woo -175
Dunlap -160
C-Bez -120

Swing it easy fellas.

 

[B.A.R.]

Dropped a few units at the Sony and not looking like a lot of pre-flop action at the Amex...tailing @laopadak live plays will be the strategy this week.

2u

3-teamer +368

Top 40

Si Woo -175
Dunlap -160
C-Bez -120

Swing it easy fellas.

I like that.

Bez on my list too. Sets up well for him and in great form.

 

[gps_3]

Taking Adam Hadwin in 1 and done. Feels like he'll be under owned due to recent form and most people gravitate toward the bigger names.

Tournament bets:

Matchups:

Wyndham (EV) over Finau
Hall +115 over Thompson
Hadwin -115 over Hodges

Top 10:
Wyndham +350
Hadwin +650

Top 20:
Wyndham +150
Cole +200
Hadwin +275

 

[laopadak]

GL this week fellas. Between the great cappers in CBB and NFL, sprinkle in some PGA, should result in a profitable week.

To make the cut: JT, Im, Burns -125 5u (MGM)
Rd.1 plays coming up soon.

 

[laopadak]

Weather not an issue, very low winds Rd.1. LQ historically has played the easiest.

Rd.1 Dunlap under 68.5 -140 (DK) 4.5u

 

[B.A.R.]

Weather not an issue, very low winds Rd.1. LQ historically has played the easiest.

Rd.1 Dunlap under 68.5 -140 (DK) 4.5u

Definitely tracking for tomorrow on totals.