2025 Golf Handicapping Thread....

[chipnotized]

Farmers Final Round

Looks like tough conditions...2 or 3 under on the round might be the best we see.

1u

Novak Rd4 O 73 -110
...final group pressure

1u

Deki--Top 10 Finish (ties paid) +125
...1 stroke out of the top 10 with his iron play looks like value, so he'll stub his toe getting into the shower and withdraw

0.5u

Ryder--Top 20 (ties paid) +428

 

[chipnotized]

BS round.2, no chance any of my plays yesterday would cash with that wind. 0-3 -13.5u, -15.3u for tourney.

Could be considered a chase or press but I'm in on Im under 72.5 -145 12.5u (DK)

I think you've used your "one time" for this year!

I had to squeegee the beer off my tv when the putt circled and dropped on 18.

A victory lap for @laopadak

 

[laopadak]

I think you've used your "one time" for this year!

I had to squeegee the beer off my tv when the putt circled and dropped on 18.

A victory lap for @laopadak

Appreciate it @chipnotized was busy driving through the Colorado mountains only to follow 17, 18 on tour cast, upon arrival to our destination. Another one cashed for me on the 18th too.

Very lucky to cash but was also a heated play, win or lose. Real money so very grateful it came thru

Let’s kill it this weekend

 

[RBTrojan]

Round 4 only:
Springer -125 vs Johnson- trying to not overthink this, I’ll take the longer guy off the tee in the cold weather. Hopefully he can take advantage of the par 5’s.

I’ve been rooting for you guys… I haven’t been betting much this year. Life is getting in the way. Fade or follow, good luck with your wagers.

 

[B.A.R.]

Round 4 only:
Springer -125 vs Johnson- trying to not overthink this, I’ll take the longer guy off the tee in the cold weather. Hopefully he can take advantage of the par 5’s.

I’ve been rooting for you guys… I haven’t been betting much this year. Life is getting in the way. Fade or follow, good luck with your wagers.

Nice bet.

I really liked Springer capping this earlier in the week.

 

[KJ]

Round 4 only:
Springer -125 vs Johnson- trying to not overthink this, I’ll take the longer guy off the tee in the cold weather. Hopefully he can take advantage of the par 5’s.

I’ve been rooting for you guys… I haven’t been betting much this year. Life is getting in the way. Fade or follow, good luck with your wagers.

Man I haven't watched one stroke of golf yet this season. Had to get caught up during the last few days because I had no clue who'd won anything including the Sentry which I rarely miss an hour of coverage. Things man. Now we get to see Torrey again in three weeks. Assume they won't play the NC for that tournament.

 

[RBTrojan]

Definitely planning to get more involved as we approach the Masters. Just gotta remember, it’s Scottie’s world we are just living in it.

 

[KJ]

Definitely planning to get more involved as we approach the Masters. Just gotta remember, it’s Scottie’s world we are just living in it.

And now he's even coming back from reconstructive hand surgery so there are questions. I see he and Spieth are both playing at Pebble, good tournament to stay laid back and maybe get right

 

[B.A.R.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1883167125239455757

 

[B.A.R.]

Interesting random reads on Twitter this morning that the TV coverage really ignored Wesley yesterday.

Is it the pure hate of YT golf? Or are they just that blind?

 

[B.A.R.]

C'mon

 

[B.A.R.]

I capped Harris as a solid contender in Hawaii...lol

Few weeks early.

 

[B.A.R.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1883943006367367269

 

[B.A.R.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1883854425737081197

 

[laopadak]

Farmers recap: 2-4 -6.7u for the tourney.

Hopefully there's some good that comes out of ATT

 

[gps_3]

Took last week off after a disastrous AMEX. I'm not a huge fan of this tournament, because even as iconic as the course is, I get tired of them telling me how great it is when it's overcast and 50 degrees. But now that we have all the good players in it, I am forced to pay attention. Not sure how much tourney history helps due to everything pre-2024 had a pretty weak field. And last year was a 54 hole finish. I made fade Clark as the main reason he won was the shortened tournament and the fact he shot a 60 in the 2nd round. I'll pay to see him do that again.

Pebble and Spyglass are both short by tour standards and have the smallest greens on the schedule, so it usually boils down to a ball-striking competition. If he's not too rusty, Scheffler should be in the mix. I haven't looked, but maybe his prices are tolerable due to coming off the surgery? I want to like Ludvig, but his drop last week is concerning. I think I read that he got sick, so maybe it's a one off. No interest in Spieth as I'll have to see him play like a world class player again before I believe it. No weak field to beat up on like he did before 2023

One and done I have Morikawa for now. I've missed 2 cuts in a row in my pool, so the no cut is nice, but I need a big finish so I don't get too far behind. I am open to switching however

 

[chipnotized]

Picked up a couple units at the Farmers, mostly due to discovering the in-play finishing position plays...likely hitting those again this week.

Pebble Beach

1u

Bobby Mac--Top 10 +425
...the forecast looks like it's straight out of Glasgow, so I've got a few of the lads from the British Isles circled.

Rd1

1u each

Si Woo U 71.5 +115
Rickie U 71.5 +135
...decent prices on guys that don't seem to mind playing rounds with the mortals in a pro-am

Wyndham O 71.5 +110
...value created by course history


Swing it easy kids.

 

[RBTrojan]

AT&T full tournament match ups:

Cam Young -110 vs Homa
Nick Taylor +100 vs Thomson

I don’t get the greatest of lines with my local, but I played both for one unit. Fade or follow, best of luck with your wagers.

 

[Inspekdah]

This is another wind shit fest?

 

[chipnotized]

This is another wind shit fest?

More cold than windy for the first 2 rounds, although late Friday may see a slight pick-up in breeze (guys playing Pebble for rd2 may not shoot as low as projected).

Weekend is forecast to be a couple degrees warmer and a couple more mph in wind.

 

[KJ]

Yeah seeing pretty heavy winds on Saturday

 

[laopadak]

These winds, weather, alternating courses, pro-ams makes play selection tough. But at the end of the day, there's still a winning side one can be on. GL this week.

Rd. 1- Pendrith -136 vs. SW Kim 5u (Bet Rivers)

Rd.1 Add- PB ERL (Dead heat) Cantlay +1600, Pendrith +2500, Glover +4500, .5u each. (DK)
Rd.1 Add-
Bobby Mac under 70.5 -155 3.4u (DK)
Cantlay under 69.5 -130 3.4u (DK)

 

[laopadak]

1u each

Si Woo U 71.5 +115
Rickie U 71.5 +135
...decent prices on guys that don't seem to mind playing rounds with the mortals in a pro-am

Wyndham O 71.5 +110
...value created by course history

Wow, great start for you Chip, all at plus money!

Let's keep it rolling deep into the weekend.

 

[B.A.R.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1885116772808089969

 

[chipnotized]

Pebble Rd2

Zeroed in on guys going off early at Pebble, conditions should be pretty much ideal to go low before the wind picks up in the afternoon.

1u each

Willy Z U 68.5 -120
Billy Ho U 68.5 -115
Morikawa U 67.5 -125
Hojgaard U 68 -120

 

[Inspekdah]

Pebble Rd2

Zeroed in on guys going off early at Pebble, conditions should be pretty much ideal to go low before the wind picks up in the afternoon.

1u each

Willy Z U 68.5 -120
Billy Ho U 68.5 -115
Morikawa U 67.5 -125
Hojgaard U 68 -120

Like them all. Was able to find 3 of them on FD.

 

[chipnotized]

Pebble Rd2 con't

1u each

Straka U 68.5 +115
Scottie U 67.5 -130

0.5u

Scottie & Morikawa each to shoot 66 or better in Rd2 +275
...both starting on hole 1 at Pebble, hopefully they can rack up some birds early

 

[chipnotized]

Like them all. Was able to find 3 of them on FD.

I found better prices this morning in a few spots and added on.

GL.

 

[laopadak]

GL today fellas. Those that shot 4 under or better yesterday, 25 out of 35 played on PB. Hopefully that continues today and winds aren't a factor until late day, as Chip has noted.

Rd.1: 2-0-1 on main plays, 0-3 smaller dart plays (Cantlay and Glover both had ample opportunity to tie at -7). +3.3u total.

Rd.2 Clark under 70.5 -105 5u (DK). Think he bounces back some today
Rd.2 Add: Deki under 68.5 -140 2.6u (DK)
Rd.2 Add: Pavon +155 vs. Ben An 2u (Bet Rivers)

 

[Inspekdah]

Wind up a few - not much. But SH shouldn’t be impacted really at all. Assumed they didn’t get too tricky with pin placements, either, as they have to keep the courses sort of even with the rotation.

Do they even change them at all when it’s a multi course like this?

 

[chipnotized]

Wind up a few - not much. But SH shouldn’t be impacted really at all. Assumed they didn’t get too tricky with pin placements, either, as they have to keep the courses sort of even with the rotation.

Do they even change them at all when it’s a multi course like this?

They leave them in the same spot for the first 2 rounds...I assume it's to be fair, but the pro-am aspect may factor in as well. I guess I haven't paid attention to other multi-track tourneys that don't include amateurs.

 

[KJ]

Somethting to keep an eye on, Ludvig WD from this pro-am means it's more than just a bruise. Sponsors are all about this pro-am so if he's had to back out the injury must be kinda serious.

 

[Inspekdah]

Players are super cold. Back 9 not much scoring going on.

 

[B.A.R.]

Somethting to keep an eye on, Ludvig WD from this pro-am means it's more than just a bruise. Sponsors are all about this pro-am so if he's had to back out the injury must be kinda serious.

He's still sick from last week, right?

 

[Inspekdah]

He's still sick from last week, right?

Sick and it's miserable there. Nothing to see here.

 

[Inspekdah]

No one shooting in the high 60s tomorrow if it's windy like this.

Is tomorrow and Sunday both at PB?

 

[B.A.R.]

No one shooting in the high 60s tomorrow if it's windy like this.

Is tomorrow and Sunday both at PB?

I believe they do?

This is a he first time they have been an elevated event.

Old format was 3 courses then Sunday PB only.

No Monterrey this year.

 

[B.A.R.]

Nuts

https://twitter.com/x/status/1885454667548594667

 

[chipnotized]

I think the PGA and the books are overly spooked by the forecast...had a look at the pin placements for tomorrow and they're scoreable, especially with the rain softening things up.

I'm playing a bunch of unders.

All round-robin'd x2 on Underdog...I'll be taking as many as I can find at other shops when they come out.

Rd3

JT U 70.5
Hovland U 71.5
Lowry U 71.5
Keegan U 71.5
Scottie U 69.5
Glover U 72.5
Eckroat U 72.5
Cole U 72.5

 

[B.A.R.]

I think the PGA and the books are overly spooked by the forecast...had a look at the pin placements for tomorrow and they're scoreable, especially with the rain softening things up.

I'm playing a bunch of unders.

All round-robin'd x2 on Underdog...I'll be taking as many as I can find at other shops when they come out.

Rd3

JT U 70.5
Hovland U 71.5
Lowry U 71.5
Keegan U 71.5
Scottie U 69.5
Glover U 72.5
Eckroat U 72.5
Cole U 72.5

Excellent

You have a link to the pins?

 

[chipnotized]

Excellent

You have a link to the pins?

No link, but they're on DK down in the "Live Event Center"

I'm not allowed to have a DK account of my own, but I know a guy who knows a guy. Apparently, they have them before they get posted on twitter.

 

[B.A.R.]

No link, but they're on DK down in the "Live Event Center"

I'm not allowed to have a DK account of my own, but I know a guy who knows a guy. Apparently, they have them before they get posted on twitter.

Understood

I know a few accounts used to post them daily on Twitter for bigger tournaments but can't find those.

I'll trust ya!

 

[RBTrojan]

Round 3 only AT&T:
Kim -115 vs Finau: Finau is my kryptonite but I really like how Kim is playing.
Dunlap -115 vs Vegas: I don’t think Vegas will hit 16/18 greens today, let’s see if he can scramble his way to a good round. I’m betting otherwise.

Two full tourney bets still have a shot. Cameron Young -5.3 strokes to the field in putting this week. Perhaps Chubbs can visit hit in his dreams tonight and show him how to tappy tappy that ball on the hole.

Fade or follow, best of luck with your wagers…

 

[KJ]

He's still sick from last week, right?

Yep just odd he actually played the full first round knowing he had already shot himself out of the tournament.

 

[Inspekdah]

weird limit on Keegan under for me. Maybe it’s sharp?

 

[chipnotized]

weird limit on Keegan under for me. Maybe it’s sharp?

What was the line?
71.5?

 

[chipnotized]

Rd3 con't

1u

3-teamer +862

Morikawa--inside top 10 after rd3 +112
JT--inside top 10 after rd3 +114
Hovland--inside top 10 after rd3 +112

 

[chipnotized]

2.3u

2-teamer -115

JT--Top 20 (ties paid) -300
Cantlay--Top 20 (ties paid) -250

...both inside the top 20 going into the weekend and neither one will mail it in on Sunday if they fall down the board a bit.

 

[laopadak]

2.3u

2-teamer -115

JT--Top 20 (ties paid) -300
Cantlay--Top 20 (ties paid) -250

...both inside the top 20 going into the weekend and neither one will mail it in on Sunday if they fall down the board a bit.

Really like this one and tailed, large. GL Chip.

 

[laopadak]

Rd.2 0-3 -9.6u, -6.3u for tourney so far. Not seeing well through the morning fog but will still fire.

Keeping it simple for Rd.3. Hopefully the weather/winds are somewhat decent.

Deki under 70.5 -105 5u(DK)
Bobby Mac under 71.5 -130 5u(DK)
Add: Scheffler -125 v. Rors (tournament matchup, tie no bet) 9.8u (Bet Rivers)

GL this weekend.