2025 Golf Handicapping Thread....
- Thread starter B.A.R.
- Start date
RBTrojan
A Child of Aliens
Full tourney Genesis match up:
M Kim -130 vs Homa: I think one guy makes the cut and the other doesn’t. Kim was impressive last week and has to be feeling good. It hasn’t worked for me yet, but I’m fading Homa. Golf is hard.
Still looking over the card, possibly may add a few more plays. Good luck guys
M Kim -130 vs Homa: I think one guy makes the cut and the other doesn’t. Kim was impressive last week and has to be feeling good. It hasn’t worked for me yet, but I’m fading Homa. Golf is hard.
Still looking over the card, possibly may add a few more plays. Good luck guys
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
It’s going to be wet, and it’s already a long course, so I’d say Rory’s advantage off the tee seems relevant
laopadak
Pretty much a regular
Snippet on golf central earlier today, regarding Farmers over the weekend (when weather was shit) indicated strokes gained approach & scrambling was the difference.
Now just need to figure out how to compile that data and rank them, based on those in field then and this week. Any golf analytics guys to lean on? I’d pay for this service lol
Had a great SB and running strong this past week. Gonna go large and press some
Now just need to figure out how to compile that data and rank them, based on those in field then and this week. Any golf analytics guys to lean on? I’d pay for this service lol
Had a great SB and running strong this past week. Gonna go large and press some
chipnotized
Bigger Slapper Than Al MacInnis
Genesis
Rain is going to make this thing play like it's 8000 yds...leaning on the long iron boys this week.
Tourney
1u each
Morikawa--14th or better -115
Deki--20th or worse +110
Scottie--5th or better +100
Fleetwood--26th or worse +100
0.25u Top 10 moon-shot +9744
Aberg +150
Cantlay +200
Willy Z +250
Day +275
Rd1
1u
2-teamer +424
English U 73.5
Homa O 73.5
Swing it easy friends.
Rain is going to make this thing play like it's 8000 yds...leaning on the long iron boys this week.
Tourney
1u each
Morikawa--14th or better -115
Deki--20th or worse +110
Scottie--5th or better +100
Fleetwood--26th or worse +100
0.25u Top 10 moon-shot +9744
Aberg +150
Cantlay +200
Willy Z +250
Day +275
Rd1
1u
2-teamer +424
English U 73.5
Homa O 73.5
Swing it easy friends.
laopadak
Pretty much a regular
Solid play here and likely going to tail, if any of my books allows a parlay on over/unders but not likely. I can't parlay over/unders w/ anything (which is a good thing for me).
Have Scottie top 10 rd.1 (ties paid) +100 circled and will likely join this one too. GL this week Chip
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I find myself liking Ludvig and Shane Lowry this week. Took them both to win at +2400 and +5000 respectively.
Top 20:
Lowry +135
Day +140
Finau +150
Top 10:
Aberg +250
Rory -125
Haven't gone through matchups yet. Last I saw, there wasn't any weather related reasons to like one side of the draw vs the other at least
Top 20:
Lowry +135
Day +140
Finau +150
Top 10:
Aberg +250
Rory -125
Haven't gone through matchups yet. Last I saw, there wasn't any weather related reasons to like one side of the draw vs the other at least
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Did find a few matchups I liked:
Min Woo -115 over Burns
Rasmus Hojgaard -120 over Henley
Keegan -110 over Detry
Fading first time winner last week with a guy who has played Torrey well for years in Keegan. The other 2 I'm backing the longer drivers of the ball off the tee, and in the Hojgaard/Henley matchup, it's a pretty significant difference
Min Woo -115 over Burns
Rasmus Hojgaard -120 over Henley
Keegan -110 over Detry
Fading first time winner last week with a guy who has played Torrey well for years in Keegan. The other 2 I'm backing the longer drivers of the ball off the tee, and in the Hojgaard/Henley matchup, it's a pretty significant difference
laopadak
Pretty much a regular
Not a big fan of this type of weathered golf but need to learn how to navigate such tourneys where even par is a good score. Won some nice suite tickets and taking my kids to the Nuggets game tonight so a few early Rd.1 Genesis plays.
All at MGM.
Nuggets -2.5 / 1st half ML / over 225.5 -102 7.2u
Nuggets -2.5 / 1st half ML / over 225.5 / Scheffler Rd.1 top 10 (ties paid) +296 1.5u
Nuggets -2.5 / 1st half ML / over 225.5 / Bobby Mac. Rd.1 top 10 (ties paid boosted) +771 1.5u
Nuggets -2.5 / 1st half ML / over 225.5 / Harris English Rd.1 top 10 (ties paid boosted) +830 1.5u
If my Nuggets don't come through, it'll be one very expensive evening where everything from parking, seats, food, drinks are free.
Leggo Denver
All at MGM.
Nuggets -2.5 / 1st half ML / over 225.5 -102 7.2u
Nuggets -2.5 / 1st half ML / over 225.5 / Scheffler Rd.1 top 10 (ties paid) +296 1.5u
Nuggets -2.5 / 1st half ML / over 225.5 / Bobby Mac. Rd.1 top 10 (ties paid boosted) +771 1.5u
Nuggets -2.5 / 1st half ML / over 225.5 / Harris English Rd.1 top 10 (ties paid boosted) +830 1.5u
If my Nuggets don't come through, it'll be one very expensive evening where everything from parking, seats, food, drinks are free.
Leggo Denver
laopadak
Pretty much a regular
When you say draw, morning to afternoon or 1st tee vs. 10th? Weather should be crap from start to finish, rd.1, I think. Like some of your plays and may tail a couple. GL this week
I like that moonshot!
Max struggling, I like what you're thinking there. Tough to play out of a slump. This is months now. He needs some downtime before I'd consider him anything but a fade.
Yeah, I'm thinking the sickness is past for Ludvig. I took him +2500 just a bit ago.
Shane is on my radar as well.
Yep on MW here.
I'm so glad to just now check NBA scores and see a nice and easy (and high scoring) Nuggets win!
I'm sure you and the kids had a great night. I'll tell ya what, nothing like being a kid and seeing a game from a suite. That hits different. My dad's boss way back in the first year the Palace was open (88-89) gave him suite tickets to 4 different games. My 8 year old ass felt like we were big time! The memories last...
Back to golf ...
Scottie starts strong methinks...
This is Bobby Mac weather -- Much like that 1st round under that was played at Pebble.
No issues with Harris whatsoever, he's playing solid.
Love to see you cap all these. Good luck!
Hoping to be back more involved now. I'll likely get in some personal stuff as the week goes. The last two weeks just been idled a lot with sickness. Finally back focused.
Aberg +2500 outright
I'll admit, I think Rory could very well win this week. I'll wait live.
I really like a lot of what you guys played. I'll probably work a few of these into tails and go from there.
Good luck to all!
Aberg +2500 outright
I'll admit, I think Rory could very well win this week. I'll wait live.
I really like a lot of what you guys played. I'll probably work a few of these into tails and go from there.
Good luck to all!
RBTrojan
A Child of Aliens
I am curious to see how this plays out. From what I’ve seen, he seems to be fade material.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Yes, I meant morning/afternoon wave. As you said, it's going to be crap all day. I was remembering the tournament there years ago when Snedeker was one of the first groups off on Sunday and finished his round before the weather turned really nasty. He ended up going from bottom of the field to a playoff that he won
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I saw somewhere that it's probably best to wait Rory and/or Scheffler live or after a round if they ever hit +1000. I'll keep my eye on it. We are looking at some pretty significant weather this weekend so I'll be inside it seems. If I don't die of anxiety or heart palpitations from the basketball game on Saturday
Could be the national championship game...
laopadak
Pretty much a regular
Thx Reno- I made it clear to my boys that the game was a special treat and it didn't disappoint. Jokic bobble head giveaway for the first 5K in, we got there early and already huge lines in single digit temps. VIP parking, VIP entrance got us in 30min before everyone else, just walked on in after a short 5 min wait in line. Got our bobble heads and were the first ones in the suite. Been awhile since we've gone to a Nuggets game and since their championship, all games are near capacity even with the lowly Trailblazers in town. Great evening and definitely one the boys will remember. They were grateful to me and the ones that got us in.
Big shout out to The First Tee. Great organization that's well funded and they do great things for junior golf/golfers. Since joining last year, we've won Broncos tix, Rockies tix, these suite tix and have had several opportunities / events that were very inexpensive or free.
Nuggets crushed- Murray with 55pts, my 7u win and pending Rd.1 open parlays capped off a nice evening.
Back to work and looking for some Rd.1 Genesis gems. GL this week.
laopadak
Pretty much a regular
Gonna try a different approach to Rd.1 Genesis. Looking at Farmers when weather was/should be similar, birdies were available and had, combined with bogeys leading to rounds floating around even / above par. Think birdies or better is a good alternative to over/under rounds. GL this week boys.
Scheffler over 3.5 birdies -140 4u (FD)
Lowry over 2.5 birdies -200 6u (FD)
Pending Rd.1's from yesterday:
Nuggets -2.5 / 1st half ML / over 225.5 / Scheffler Rd.1 top 10 (ties paid) +296 1.5u
Nuggets -2.5 / 1st half ML / over 225.5 / Bobby Mac. Rd.1 top 10 (ties paid boosted) +771 1.5u
Nuggets -2.5 / 1st half ML / over 225.5 / Harris English Rd.1 top 10 (ties paid boosted) +830 1.5u
Rd.1 Adds:
Scheffler over 3.5 birdies -140 4u (FD)
Lowry over 2.5 birdies -200 6u (FD)
Pending Rd.1's from yesterday:
Nuggets -2.5 / 1st half ML / over 225.5 / Scheffler Rd.1 top 10 (ties paid) +296 1.5u
Nuggets -2.5 / 1st half ML / over 225.5 / Bobby Mac. Rd.1 top 10 (ties paid boosted) +771 1.5u
Nuggets -2.5 / 1st half ML / over 225.5 / Harris English Rd.1 top 10 (ties paid boosted) +830 1.5u
Rd.1 Adds:
chipnotized
Bigger Slapper Than Al MacInnis
I'm doing something similar on Underdog...they're offering Holes 16-17-18 Over/Under 11.5 strokes.
#16: 227yd par 3
#17: 443yd par 4
#18: 570yd par 5
1u
3-teamer +166
Keegan O 11.5
Lowry O 11.5
Rai O 11.5
Best of luck today and all week.
laopadak
Pretty much a regular
Creative, love it.
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laopadak
Pretty much a regular
Seems to be the case, I think back 9 plays harder than front. Patience is key and hopefully some putts will start dropping
Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
Unless you’re SS
Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
Definitely seems that way with back harder.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Just need him to not blow up on the last 8 holes, only thing I took today was u72.5 -150 thinking asking the best player in the world to shoot even par should've been more than that. Almost felt trappy.
laopadak
Pretty much a regular
Weather got nastier as did the scoring. Pretty fun round to watch though. 3-3 Rd.1 golf plays, + pocket change. English and Bradley should've made it an awesome round 1 but what do you do. Eat tomorrow.
Scheffler over 3.5 birdies -140 4u (FD)
Lowry over 2.5 birdies -200 6u (FD)
Nuggets -2.5 / 1st half ML / over 225.5 / Scheffler Rd.1 top 10 (ties paid) +296 1.5u
Nuggets -2.5 / 1st half ML / over 225.5 / Bobby Mac. Rd.1 top 10 (ties paid boosted) +771 1.5u
Nuggets -2.5 / 1st half ML / over 225.5 / Harris English Rd.1 top 10 (ties paid boosted) +830 1.5u
Keegan under 73.5 -125 7u (DK)
Scheffler over 3.5 birdies -140 4u (FD)
Lowry over 2.5 birdies -200 6u (FD)
Nuggets -2.5 / 1st half ML / over 225.5 / Scheffler Rd.1 top 10 (ties paid) +296 1.5u
Nuggets -2.5 / 1st half ML / over 225.5 / Bobby Mac. Rd.1 top 10 (ties paid boosted) +771 1.5u
Nuggets -2.5 / 1st half ML / over 225.5 / Harris English Rd.1 top 10 (ties paid boosted) +830 1.5u
Keegan under 73.5 -125 7u (DK)
laopadak
Pretty much a regular
Let’s see if this comes thru correctly. Strokes gained approach rd.1
datagolf.com
Driving:
datagolf.com
Short game/scrambling:
datagolf.com
Live Tournament Stats - The Genesis Invitational
Live strokes gained and traditional statistics from every round of this week’s PGA Tour event in a customizable table.
Driving:
Live Tournament Stats - The Genesis Invitational
Live strokes gained and traditional statistics from every round of this week’s PGA Tour event in a customizable table.
Short game/scrambling:
Live Tournament Stats - The Genesis Invitational
Live strokes gained and traditional statistics from every round of this week’s PGA Tour event in a customizable table.
chipnotized
Bigger Slapper Than Al MacInnis
Pin placements and weather have me thinking it's going to play a stroke easier tomorrow.
Rd2
3u
2-teamer +326
Wyndham O 3.5 bird or better
Hovland O 3.5 bird or better
Rd2 3-balls
1u each
Akshay ov Conners; Thompson +185
Billy Ho ov Rai; Si Woo +190
Jaeger ov Day; Lowry +250
Rd2
3u
2-teamer +326
Wyndham O 3.5 bird or better
Hovland O 3.5 bird or better
Rd2 3-balls
1u each
Akshay ov Conners; Thompson +185
Billy Ho ov Rai; Si Woo +190
Jaeger ov Day; Lowry +250
Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
How’s the weather compare? Less rain? Wind? Putts are there if you can get it close.
Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
SS and Rory O 3.5 birds/better -140 each seems good. Lean SS a little more since he just did it yesterday after fading on the back 9. My only hesitation with SS is that the front 9 like others have mentioned seems to be playing easier and he's starting on the back 9 and he seems like he's been fading since his return from injury as the rounds go on. He had a look to go 4 under and barely missed it and then fizzled a couple more away.
laopadak
Pretty much a regular
I think SS will be fine O 3.5 birds. They know the back nine is harder but I can still see him -1 or -2 back nine, with a couple of birdies and maybe a bogey or two. Good play IMO.
Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
It's a good line on FD again at -140. It's 5 or more on MGM at -125.
laopadak
Pretty much a regular
MGM always seems to be a rip off. They're offering is very limited but I have a host there and get good deposit matches / bonuses with high limits. They've been my nemesis book as I tend to not do that well there (thus all the matches and bonuses). Finally killing them from the past 14 days, have a high balance and want to go for their throat but find selections very hard.
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