2024 off-season in the FCS

[s--k]

I don't spend much time so early on any kind of football, but I am looking at some stuff right now, so I thought I would do some old copy and paste here to get the new season underway.

2023-24 Head Coaching Change Tracker in FCS College Football​

4-30-2024, credit to theanalyst website:
Craig Haley / Author, Matt Sisneros / Design

FCS football programs that have had a head coaching change since the start of the 2023 season (announcement date in parentheses):

Alcorn State (SWAC)

Former head coach Fred McNair (Dec. 19) – 7-4 record in 2023, 48-33 in seven overall seasons

New head coach Cedric Thomas (Dec. 19) – elevated from defensive coordinator; went 8-14 at Arkansas-Pine Bluff in 2018 and ’19, and 5-4 on the junior college level at Mississippi Delta

Austin Peay (UAC)

Former head coach Scotty Walden (Dec. 4) – 9-3 record in 2023, 26-14 in four overall seasons

New head coach Jeff Faris (Dec. 9) – former Duke assistant spent the 2022 and ’23 seasons as UCLA’s tight ends coach

Campbell (CAA)

Former head coach Mike Minter (Dec. 18) – 5-6 record in 2023, 49-66 in 11 overall seasons

New head coach Braxton Harris (Jan. 2) – Campbell assistant coach in 2021-22 returns after going 5-5 in one season guiding Houston Christian

Columbia (Ivy)

Interim head coach Mark Fabish (Nov. 21) – 3-7 record in 2023

New head coach Jon Poppe (Dec. 2) – former Columbia assistant went 10-2 as Union’s head coach in 2023

Cornell (Ivy)

Former head coach David Archer (Nov. 19) – 3-7 record in 2023, 29-71 in 10 overall seasons

New head coach Dan Swanstrom (Dec. 7) – served as Penn’s offensive coordinator in 2022 and ‘23 after going 32-11 as Ithaca’s head coach from 2017-21

Dartmouth (Ivy)

Interim head coach Sammy McCorkle (April 4, 2023)

New head coach Sammy McCorkle (Oct. 19) – Elevated to the full-time position

ETSU (Southern)

Former head coach George Quarles (Nov. 19) – 3-8 record in 2023, 6-16 in two overall seasons

New head coach Tre Lamb (Nov. 27) – former Gardner-Webb coach guided program’s first two playoff appearances

Florida A&M (SWAC)

Former head coach Willie Simmons (Jan. 1) – 12-1 record in 2023, 45-13 in five overall seasons

New head coach James Colzie III (Jan. 27) – elevated from assistant head coach/defensive backs coach; previously guided the Saint Mary’s program in Canada from 2016-21

Gardner-Webb (Big South-OVC)

Former coach Tre Lamb (Nov. 27) – 7-5 record in 2023, 20-20 in four overall seasons

New head coach Cris Reisert (Dec. 12) – posted a 40-11 record at Tiffin during the 2019-23 seasons; was Elon’s tight ends coach from 2014-16

Grambling State (SWAC)

Former head coach Hue Jackson (Nov. 28) – 5-6 record in 2023, 8-14 in two overall seasons

New head coach Mickey Joseph (Dec. 18) – assistant coaching experience includes GSU and two other SWAC schools; went 3-6 in 2022 as the interim coach at Nebraska, his alma mater.

Hampton (CAA)

Former head coach Robert Prunty (April 30) – 5-6 record in 2023, 26-29 in five overall seasons

New head coach Trent Boykin (April 30) – Elevated from running backs and special teams coach

Harvard (Ivy)

Former head coach Tim Murphy (Jan. 17) – 8-2 record in 2023, 200-89 in 29 overall seasons

New head coach Andrew Aurich (Feb. 9) – served most recently as Rutgers’ tight end coach after spending a lot of time in the Ivy League as a Princeton player and offensive coordinator

Holy Cross (Patriot)

Former head coach Bob Chesney (Dec. 7) – 7-4 record in 2023, 44-21 in six overall seasons

New head coach Dan Curran (Dec. 15) – guided Merrimack for 11 seasons, including the Warriors’ move into Division I

Houston Christian (Southland)

Former head coach Braxton Harris (Jan. 2) – went 5-5 in one season with Huskies in 2023

New head coach Jason Bachtel (Jan. 4) – the Huskies’ 2023 offensive coordinator went 16-9 at Howard Payne over the 2020-22 seasons

Marist (Pioneer)

Former head coach Jim Parady (Nov. 29) – 4-7 record in 2023, 155-171-1 in 32 overall seasons

New head coach Mike Willis (Dec. 19) – served as assistant head coach and offensive coordinator at Princeton

Mercer (Southern)

Former head coach Drew Cronic (Jan. 9) – 9-4 record in 2023, 28-17 in four overall seasons

New head coach Mike Jacobs (Jan. 18) – went a combined 74-17 record at Notre Dame (Ohio) and Lenoir-Rhyne (he also succeeded Cronic at Lenoir-Rhyne)

Merrimack (Northeast)

Former head coach Dan Curran (Dec. 15) – 5-6 record in 2023, 53-58 in 11 overall seasons

New head coach Mike Gennetti (Dec. 18) – elevated from defensive coordinator and after 19 seasons on staff as an assistant coach

Morehead State (Pioneer)

Former head coach Rob Tenyer (Nov. 20) – 4-7 record in 2023, 47-73 in 11 overall seasons

New head coach Jason Woodman (Dec. 19) – compiled a 60-47 record in 10 seasons at Fairmont State with a Division II playoff appearance in 2016.

Murray State (MVFC)

Former head coach Dean Hood (Jan. 1) – 2-9 record in 2023, 15-25 in four overall seasons

New head coach Jody Wright (Jan. 10) – A part of the Nick Saban coaching family tree who served as South Carolina’s tight end coach in the 2022 and ’23 seasons

North Dakota State (MVFC)

Head coach Matt Entz (Dec. 10) – 11-4 record in 2023, 60-11 in five overall seasons

New head coach Tim Polasek (Dec. 17) – Wyoming’s offensive coordinator returns to the Bison, having been a part of four FCS championship teams as an assistant coach

North Dakota State’s Tim Polasek, the 32nd head football coach in program history. (Christopher Mitchell/NDSU Athletics)

Northern Arizona (Big Sky)

Former head coach Chris Ball (Nov. 20) – 5-6 record in 2013, 20-30 in five overall seasons

New head coach Brian Wright (Dec. 3) – went 33-8 as Pittsburg State’s head coach from 2019-23

Northwestern State (Southland)

Former head coach Brad Laird (Oct. 26) – 0-6 record in 2023, 16-41 in six overall seasons

New head coach Blaine McCorkle (Nov. 28) – went 31-25 in six seasons guiding Division III Belhaven

South Carolina State (MEAC)

Former head coach Buddy Pough (Nov. 19) – 5-6 record in 2023, 151-93 in 22 overall seasons

New head coach Chennis Berry (Dec. 7) – long-time HBCU coach went 27-7 while guiding Benedict in the 2021-23 seasons

Southern (SWAC)

Former head coach Eric Dooley (Nov. 14) – 5-5 record in 2023, 12-10 in two overall seasons

New head coach Terrence Graves (Dec. 12) – served as Southern’s assistant head coach and linebackers coach in 2023, his 15th season with the Jaguars over four stints

Stony Brook (CAA)

Former head coach Chuck Priore (Nov. 13) – 0-10 record in 2023, 97-111 in 18 overall seasons

New head coach Billy Cosh (Dec. 13) – Western Michigan offensive coordinator previously led the offenses at VMI and Richmond

Tennessee Tech (Big South-OVC)

Former head coach Dewayne Alexander (Nov. 21) – 4-7 record in 2023, 20-43 in six overall seasons

New head coach Bobby Wilder (Dec. 3) – went 77-56 at Old Dominion from 2009-19 while taking an FCS startup program up to FBS level

Texas Southern (SWAC)

Former head coach Clarence McKinney (Nov. 20) – 3-8 record in 2023, 12-35 in five overall seasons

New head coach Cris Dishman (Jan. 12) – Two-time NFL Pro Bowler played in Houston with the Oilers, served as a defensive coordinator in the USFL and XFL in recent seasons

UC Davis (Big Sky)

Former head coach Dan Hawkins (Nov. 28) – 7-4 record in 2023, 44-31 in seven overall seasons

New head coach Tim Plough (Dec. 1) – former Aggies quarterback who coached under Hawkins and returns after short stints at Boise State and Cal

Utah Tech (UAC)

Former head coach Paul Peterson (Nov. 20) – 2-9 record in 2023, 17-29 in five overall seasons

New head coach Lance Anderson (Dec. 8) – first-time head coach spent the 2007-22 seasons on Stanford’s staff

Western Illinois (MVFC; Big South-OVC in 2024)

Former head coach Myers Hendrickson (Nov. 20) – 0-11 record in 2023, 0-22 in two overall seasons

New head coach Joe Davis (Dec. 10) – has served as an assistant at FCS programs Albany, Fordham, Northern Iowa and Eastern Illinois

---

​

 

[s--k]

Realignment (notes from ncaa.com)

Moving from the FCS​

In 2024, Kennesaw State will be leaving for the FBS. The Owls will begin their FBS transition in 2023 and will be ineligible for postseason play.

In 2025, Delaware will be leaving for the FBS. The Blue Hens will be ineligible for a conference title or the FCS playoffs once the transition process begins in 2024.

New to FCS​

In 2024, West Georgia will enter the FCS, joining the ASUN conference and Mercyhurst will enter the FCS, joining the NEC conference.

Come 2025, Texas-Rio Grande Valley (UTRGV) will introduce its football program in its inaugural season, joining the Southland at the FCS level.

Changes in the FCS in 2024 and beyond​

Western Illinois leaves MVFC, joins OVC​

Western Illinois announced on May 12, 2023 that it will be leaving the Missouri Valley Football Conference to join the Ohio Valley Conference in 2024. The Leathernecks will join the OVC in all sports outside of football beginning July 2023, with the football program joining the new conference a year later.

Bryant leaves Big South, joins CAA​

Bryant announced on August 10, 2023 that it will be joining the CAA in the 2024 season as a football member. The move comes two years after Bryant left the NEC to join the Big South as an associate football member (see below). Bryant gives the CAA 16 football teams in 2024.

Robert Morris leaves Big South, returns to NEC​

Robert Morris announced on November 28, 2023 that it will return to the NEC — a conference it left in 2019 — in 2024 as a football associate member. Robert Morris' departure from the NEC leaves two teams left in the Big South.

Sacred Heart leaves NEC, goes independent​

Sacred Heart left the NEC for the MAAC conference. Since the MAAC doesn't sponsor football, the Pioneers are going independent.

Merrimack leaves NEC, goes independent​

Merrimack left the NEC for the MAAC conference. Since the MAAC doesn't sponsor football, the Warriors are going independent.

 

[s--k]

FCS players in the 2024 NFL draft (from Sam Herder at Hero Sports)

12 FCS players were selected in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Last year saw 11 picks from the FCS.

With the transfer portal creating more player movement, NFL Draft picks for FCS players who transferred to the FBS are counted as: Any players who played multiple seasons in the FCS before playing their final season in the FBS will be counted as draft picks from the FCS. Players who started their college careers in the FCS but then played multiple seasons in the FBS won’t be counted.

FCS Players In The 2024 NFL Draft​

3rd Round​

No. 75 — Yale OL Kiran Amegadjie (Bears)

No. 94 — Houston Christian edge Jalyx Hunt (Eagles)

4th Round​

No. 119 — South Dakota State OL Mason McCormick (Steelers)

5th Round​

No. 173 — South Dakota State RB Isaiah Davis (Jets)

6th Round​

No. 199 — Northern Iowa DT Khristian Boyd (Saints)

No. 208 — New Hampshire RB Dylan Laube (Raiders)

No. 216 — SEMO WR Ryan Flournoy (Cowboys)

7th Round​

No. 227 — South Dakota DB Myles Harden (Browns)

No. 232 — Texas A&M-Commerce DT Levi Drake Rodriguez (Vikings)

No. 239 — Eastern Kentucky OL Josiah Ezirim (Saints)

No. 248 — Holy Cross OL C.J. Hanson (Chiefs)

No. 256 — South Carolina/Yale OL Nick Gargiulo (Broncos)


FCS UDFA and camp invites as of May 2nd (from Sam Herder at Hero Sports)

UDFA Signings​

Player	Team
Alabama State CB Mikey Victor	Patriots
Albany WR Brevin Easton	Jaguars
Alcorn State RB Jarveon Howard	Packers
Bryant DL Kenny Dyson	Panthers
Campbell OL Mike Edwards	Bills
Campbell OL Tyler McClellan	Chargers
CCSU edge Luquay Washington	Chiefs
Chattanooga OL Griffin McDowell	Chiefs
Dartmouth/Syracuse DB Isaiah Johnson	Dolphins
Florida A&M WR Marcus Riley	Jets
Furman CB Travis Blackshear	Bills
Furman OL Jacob Johanning	Raiders
Furman TE Mason Pline	49ers
Grambling edge Sundiata Anderson	Seahawks
Holy Cross WR Jalen Coker	Panthers
Holy Cross/Wyoming WR Ayir Asante	Giants
Howard OL Anim Dankwah	Eagles
Howard RB Ian Wheeler	Bears
Idaho LS Hogan Hatten	Lions
Idaho WR Hayden Hatten	Seahawks
Idaho WR Jermaine Jackson	Saints
Illinois State QB Zack Annexstad	Bucs
Illinois State TE Cam Grandy	Bengals
Jackson State/TCU OL Willis Patrick	Chargers
Mercer WR Devron Harper	Vikings
Mercer WR Ty James	Vikings
Merrimack DB Darion McKenzie	Steelers
Missouri State WR Terique Owens	49ers
Monmouth RB Jaden Shirden	Panthers
Morgan State DB Jordan Toles	Ravens
NC A&T/Wake Forest LB Jacob Roberts	Eagles
North Dakota State CB Jayden Price	Falcons
North Dakota State OL Jake Kubas	Giants
North Dakota State OL Jalen Sundell	Browns
North Dakota State RB TaMerik Williams	Seahawks
Northern Iowa DB Woo Governor	Raiders
Northern Iowa WR Sam Schnee	Titans
Rhode Island DB Jordan Colbert	Dolphins
Rhode Island OL Lorenzo Thompson	Browns
Richmond OL Ryan Coll	Falcons
Richmond/App State CB Tyrek Funderburk	Bucs
SEMO DB Lawrence Johnson	Saints
South Dakota LB Brock Mogensen	Cowboys
South Dakota State CB DyShawn Gales	Browns
South Dakota State LB Isaiah Stalbird	Saints
South Dakota State OL Garret Greenfield	Seahawks
South Dakota State TE Zach Heins	Chargers
South Dakota State WR Jadon Janke	Texans
South Dakota State WR Jaxon Janke	Texans
Southern Illinois S PJ Jules	Bengals
Southern Utah WR Isaiah Wooden	Falcons
Towson CB Robert Javier	Titans
UC Davis/Tennessee TE McCallan Castles	Eagles
Villanova OL Nick Torres	Chiefs
Villanova RB Jalen Jackson	Jaguars
Weber State LB Winston Reid	Browns
Western Carolina CB Rod Gattison	Titans
Western Carolina OL Tyler Smith	Chargers
Western Carolina WR David White	Jaguars
William & Mary DL Nate Lynn	Lions
Yale WR Mason Tipton	Saints
Youngstown State WR Bryce Oliver	Titans

Rookie Minicamp Tryout Invites​

Player	Team
Albany LB Brian Abraham	Bears
Albany WR Julian Hicks	Packers
Austin Peay QB Mike DiLiello	Titans
Bryant WR Anthony Frederick	Titans
Bryant/FIU DL Jack Daly	Bills, Packers
Bryant/Buffalo LB Joe Andreessen	Bills, Chiefs
Butler WR Jyran Mitchell	Colts
Cal Poly OL Garrett Weichman	Colts
CCSU DB Tyler Boatwright	Jets
Central Arkansas DB Andrew Hayes	Seahawks
Chattanooga DB Clay Fields III	Colts
Chattanooga edge Jay Person	Patriots
Dartmouth S Quinten Arello	Titans
Delaware LB Jackson Taylor	Chiefs
Delaware State RB Michael Chris-Ike	Jets
Delaware WR Jourdan Townsend	Browns
Eastern Illinois DB Russell Dandy	Jets
Eastern Kentucky LB Logan Blake	Packers, Saints
Eastern Washington TE Blake Gobel	Broncos
EWU/Mississippi St WR Freddie Roberson	Seahawks
Florida A&M LB Isaiah Major	Saints
Florida A&M QB Jeremy Moussa	Bucs
Florida A&M RB Terrell Jennings	Patriots
Fordham/Indiana WR Dequece Carter	Giants
Furman RB Dominic Roberto	Saints
Grambling DB Cedric Anderson	Eagles
Houston Christian QB Colby Suits	Jets
Idaho TE TJ Ivy	Jets
Incarnate Word OL Joe Bryson	Broncos
Incarnate Word WR Brandon Porter	Chiefs
Incarnate Word WR Caleb Chapman	Bucs
Incarnate Word WR Jaelin Campbell	Dolphins
Indiana State WR Dakota Caton	Colts
Indiana State WR Harry Van Dyne	Chiefs
LIU DL Mike Thompson	Bucs
LIU TE Owen Glascoe	Patriots
Mercer CB Tavion McCarthy	Eagles
Monmouth OL Greg Anderson	Jets
Monmouth TE Gene Scott	Bills
Montana DT Alex Gubner	Chiefs
Montana OL AJ Forbes	Seahawks
Montana P Travis Benham	Jets
Montana S Nash Fouch	Giants
Montana State QB Sean Chambers	Panthers
Montana State TE Treyton Pickering	Giants
Montana State WR Clevan Thomas	Browns
Morgan State DL Noah Washington	Vikings
Morgan State WR TreVeyon Pratt	Titans
North Alabama DL Philip Ossai	Falcons
North Carolina A&T OL Tairiq Stewart	Patriots
North Carolina A&T WR Taymon Cooke	Jets
North Carolina Central DB Brandon Codrington	Jets
North Dakota OL Donny Ventrelli	Bears
North Dakota State WR Zach Mathis	Bucs
Northern Arizona DL Mark Ho Ching	Bears
Northern Arizona WR Hendrix Johnson	Broncos, Colts
Northern Colorado QB Jacob Sirmon	Browns
Penn DB Jaden Key	Jets
Penn/UCLA DL Jake Heimlicher	Giants
Portland State DB Isaiah Avery	49ers
Princeton LB Will Perez	Colts
Princeton QB Blake Stenstrom	Eagles
Rhode Island OL Nick Correia	Seahawks, Dolphins
Rhode Island OL Sebastian Delasoudas	Jets
Rhode Island WR Kahtero Summers	Jets
Richmond DL Aidan Murray	Vikings
Richmond LB Tristan Wheeler	Jets, Giants
Sacramento State CB Caleb Nelson	Dolphins
Sacramento State DL Jett Stanley	Steelers
Sacramento State TE Marshel Martin	Jets
Samford QB Michael Hiers	Bucs
Samford WR Qadir Ismail	Ravens
Samford WR R.J. Starkey	Patriots, Packers
South Carolina State DL Jeblonski Green	Colts
South Carolina State DL Patrick Godbolt	Jets
South Dakota DL Brendan Webb	49ers
South Dakota LB Jonathan Joanis	49ers
South Dakota LB Stephen Hillis	Bills
South Dakota OL Isaac Erbes	Titans
Southern Illinois RB Justin Strong	Colts
Southern Utah WR Timothy Patrick	49ers
Southern WR August Pitre III	Broncos
Stephen F. Austin/LA Tech DB Myles Heard	Giants
Texas Southern Aidan Hemphill	Colts
The Citadel TE Patrick McSweeney	Jets
Towson DL Jesus Gibbs	Chiefs
Villanova LB Danny Abraham	Seahawks
Villanova RB TD Ayo-Durojaiye	Bears
Villanova WR Jaaron Hayek	Chiefs
Villanova WR Rayjuon Pringle	Steelers
Weber State CB Maxwell Anderson	49ers
Weber State OL Noah Atagi	Bears
Weber State/BYU DB Eddie Heckard	Broncos
Western Illinois DB JJ Ross	Seahawks
William & Mary CB Ryan Poole	49ers
Youngstown State DB Marcus Hooker	Colts
Youngstown State OL Ryan Johnson	Patriots
Youngstown State QB Mitch Davidson	49ers

 

[B.A.R.]

Great stuff @s--k

Keeping notes!

 

[s--k]

Yes, I'm trying to get a jump on things while I have this bug because in a week I'll probably not revisit anything for a while.

These transfer portal moves were compiled by Sam Herder in December. With the latest portal opening this spring they are now incomplete and some of these players from December may've moved somewhere else as well. But these are helpful lists to get caught up on.

Also, I was told that Phil Steele will produce another online FCS preseason pdf magazine this summer.

2024 FBS-to-FCS Transfers

The transfer portal is off and running with plenty of players looking to find a new home in 2024. Here are the 2024 FBS-to-FCS transfers.

herosports.com

2024 FCS-to-FBS Transfers

The transfer portal is off and running with plenty of players looking to find a new home. Here are the 2024 FCS-to-FBS transfers.

herosports.com

2024 FCS-to-FCS Transfers

The transfer portal is off and running with plenty of players looking to find a new home in 2024. Here are the FCS-to-FCS transfers.

herosports.com

One big transfer I know that is not on these lists is Eli Green, WR from NDSU who entered the portal unexpectedly this spring. He was not all conference last season, but he was huge down the stretch for the Bison, 25 of his 45 catches and 549 of his 877 receiving yards were in November through the playoffs (17r-368y in playoffs). He has mid-to-upper level FBS interest and that kind of loss will not be reflected in the December links above. NDSU's other top WR Zach Mathis graduated and exhausted eligibility.

 

[B.A.R.]

Bumping this up.

 

[steponaduck]

Really good FCS work here. I would be lying if I said I didnt peep this thread frequently, in season and off season.

 

[s--k]

Really good FCS work here. I would be lying if I said I didnt peep this thread frequently, in season and off season.

Busy with life stuff as usual this time of year. Think I might have the entire month of August though to prep for the season. Wish I could do it right now, but just too much stuff going on. See you guys later this summer!

 

[bookieassassin]

Northwestern State (Southland)

Former head coach Brad Laird (Oct. 26) – 0-6 record in 2023, 16-41 in six overall seasons

New head coach Blaine McCorkle (Nov. 28) – went 31-25 in six seasons guiding Division III Belhaven


* looking at Tulsa week 1 vs these boys - last game they played was OCTOBER 19 - season cancelled after a player was killed. Demons have an emotional home / winnable game on deck vs PView and should get beat up here on Thursday nite. LINE 30-35 - pound at 28 or less

 

[B.A.R.]

Northwestern State (Southland)

Former head coach Brad Laird (Oct. 26) – 0-6 record in 2023, 16-41 in six overall seasons

New head coach Blaine McCorkle (Nov. 28) – went 31-25 in six seasons guiding Division III Belhaven


* looking at Tulsa week 1 vs these boys - last game they played was OCTOBER 19 - season cancelled after a player was killed. Demons have an emotional home / winnable game on deck vs PView and should get beat up here on Thursday nite. LINE 30-35 - pound at 28 or less

Official on my notepad.

Excellent capping here.

 

[s--k]

Upset count was down last year. Only 4 FCS upsets of FBS teams last year out of 118 total games. 8 in 2022 out of 119 games. 12 in 2021 from 117 games.

This year there are 121 such games. First glance blind, I there would appear to be more than 4 this year, probably closer to the 6-10% from previous years.

2024 FCS vs FBS games

Week 0

Montana State at New Mexico

Delaware State at Hawaii

Week 1

Howard at Rutgers

Western Carolina at North Carolina State

Jackson State at ULM

Central Connecticut State at Central Michigan

New Hampshire at Central Florida

North Carolina A&T at Wake Forest

Lafayette at Buffalo

Fordham at Bowling Green

Duquesne at Toledo

Arkansas Pine Bluff at Arkansas

Southeastern Louisiana at Tulane

North Dakota State at Colorado

Murray State at Missouri

Lindenwood at Kansas

Northwestern State at Tulsa

Alcorn State at UAB
Southern Utah at Utah

Eastern Illinois at Illinois

Sacramento State at San Jose State

Lehigh at Army

Elon at Duke

Illinois State at Iowa

Bucknell at Navy

Austin Peay at Louisville

Indiana State at Purdue

UT Chattanooga at Tennessee

South Dakota State at Oklahoma State

Towson at Cincinnati

Portland State at Washington State

East Tennessee State at App State

North Dakota at Iowa State

Western Illinois at Northern Illinois

Merrimack at Air Force

UC Davis at Cal

Stony Brook at Marshall

Campbell at Liberty

Norfolk State at East Carolina

Richmond at Virginia

Eastern Kentucky at Mississippi State

Idaho State at Oregon State

North Alabama at Memphis

Tennessee Tech at Middle Tennessee State

Bethune-Cookman at South Florida

Furman at Ole Miss

Central Arkansas at Arkansas State

UT Martin at Kansas State

Tarleton State at Baylor

Abilene Christian at Texas Tech

Idaho at Oregon

Alabama A&M at Auburn

Southern Illinois at BYU

Lamar at Texas State

Texas A&M Commerce at San Diego State

Nicholls at Louisiana Tech

Houston Christian at SMU

Grambling at Louisiana

Southeast Missouri at New Mexico State

Weber State at Washington

Robert Morris at Utah State

Week 2

Western Illinois at Indiana

Rhode Island at Minnesota

Merrimack at UConn

McNeese at Texas A&M

Tennessee Tech at Georgia

Missouri State at Ball State

Saint Francis at Kent State

Utah Tech at UNLV

South Dakota at Wisconsin

Idaho at Wyoming

Duquesne at Boston College

Florida A&M at Miami (FL)

Albany at West Virginia

Gardner Webb at James Madison

Texas Southern at Rice

Samford at Florida

Northern Colorado at Colorado State

Eastern Kentucky at Western Kentucky

Cal Poly at Stanford

UT Chattanooga at Georgia State

Southeastern Louisiana at Southern Miss

William & Mary at Coastal Carolina

Alcorn at Vanderbilt

Stephen F Austin at North Texas

Nicholls at LSU

Long Island at TCU

Southern Utah at UTEP

Northern Arizona at Arizona

Sacramento State at Fresno State

Week 3

Northwestern State at South Alabama

Prairie View at Michigan State

VMI at Georgia Tech

Morgan State at Ohio

Colgate at Akron

NC Central at North Carolina

SC State at Georgia Southern

Gardner Webb at Charlotte

Bethune-Cookman at Western Michigan

Northern Iowa at Nebraska

Eastern Illinois at Northwestern

Week 4

St Francis at Eastern Michigan

Eastern Washington at Nevada

Central Connecticut State at UMass

Houston Christian at UTSA

Youngstown State at Pitt

Monmouth at FIU

Florida A&M at Troy

Portland State at Boise

Northern Iowa at Hawaii

Villanova at Maryland

Week 5

Holy Cross at Syracuse

Wagner at Florida Atlantic

UT Martin at Kennesaw State

Week 6

Week 7

Week 8

Week 9

Wagner at UMass

Week 10

Maine at Oklahoma

Week 11

Week 12

Murray State at Kentucky

Mercer at Alabama

Week 13

Wofford at South Carolina

Charleston Southern at Florida State

The Citadel at Clemson


I've got A LOT of work to do, but good news is the whole month of August is wide open to get ready for the season!

 

[steponaduck]

He’s back. Let’s go to work buddy. I already have action on 2 FCS games

 

[s--k]

Sacramento State opens with back-to-back road trips to other California schools in San Jose and Fresno.

Sac State has been strong vs FBS competition. Last year they upset Stanford as a 7pt road dog. That moved them to 6-0 ATS vs FBS teams going back to 2018 and it marked the second consecutive year they had won outright vs FBS (at Colorado St in 2022).

San Jose has some transition, after HC Brennan has moved on, Coach Ken comes in but it will not be an option offense, instead a pass oriented team. New and green QBs, almost an entirely new and inexperienced OL and new coaches with a new system could lead to some learning curves out the gate.

Overall, 10 San Jose players were recognized All MWC last year, 8 of those 10 are gone.

Sac State D will also be replacing a lot of their top players, on defense at least. Sac State named their 2019-2022 DC the new HC in 2023 and the D slipped a little, but was still a good unit. This year I see them losing 12 of their top 14 tacklers! Read elsewhere in a preview that DT Tyler Hardeman was back to the DL, but he was not in the '24 media guide or listed on their online roster. That means they lose every DL starter from last year, all the LB starters, both starting CBs and 2 of their 3 starting safeties! If there is a bright side, the DL returns their top 4 depth players who contributed a lot last year and are all upper classmen. The LB position looks weak, but again, on the bright side they brough in Utah Tech's #4 tackler from last year who was their #2 tackler in 2022 and received 2nd Tm All UAC last year. They also bring in a contributor from the Abilene Christian DL unit to bolster their group here. With both starting CBs gone, the reserves didn't contribute much an FCS and FBS transfers may fill in there and the top reserve safeties from last year were freshman. CB Kenion is from Idaho where he had a good 2022 season (7 PBUs and 4 INTs) before seeing his numbers and games drop last year. The other CB may be Bulter from Cal who has played 20 games the last 2 years but has minimal stats. They also brought in a CB from Fresno who was mostly used on special teams.

Actually after typing that...if San Jose's O does come out clicking, this could be a good Over game. As Sac State's O should be every bit as good and better than last year. Kaiden Bennett emerged as a starter early last year, but he was injured and was sometimes pulled and didn't finish games - which at the time, nobody knew he was injured and it was thought Bennett was in the dog house or the coaches were forcing a young Conklin into the games which didn't always lead to good results. After the season we learned that Bennett's time in and out of the lineup was due to a lingering shoulder injury. Bennett was injured in the spring but that is not expected to limit him in fall camp. He is an excellent dual threat QB who ran for 100 yards 3x last season including vs Stanford while his 64.3% completion percentage is tops for a Sac State QB with 200+ attempts. Sac State's OL is very experienced with the exceptoin of LT, but 4 other starters are back and 7 of the top 9 overall return to a veteran unit. WRs #2-4 return and while they did lose their top TE who was in an NFL minicamp, their other TE was named preseason All Big Sky (started 6 games last year and he's also a goal line RB where he scored 4 TDs last year). There is a hole a RB as the Hornets will have to replace their leading rusher for the second straight year.

HC Thompson has his work cut out for him on the D side of the ball with new faces. Not sure it is much better at San Jose, where they did retain a long time DC, but a lot of turnover for them as well there too (only return top 3 of 11 tacklers). Kind of an unknown what the San Jose O does right out the gate where as Sac State O should be good to go. Sac State will be confident having knocked off Stanford last year and have competed well vs other FBS teams. Have to figure this line opens pretty low

 

[steponaduck]

have this game circled as an over game, mate. not excited about Jose's projected starting QB Jay Butterfield ducking out before camp...so interested to see how that manifests itself...could be a really good over spot though number dependent.

 

[s--k]

Idaho is going to be an interesting team this year.

Everyone who follows FCS knows they were a back-to-back playoff team after years of irrelevance since dropping down from FBS. And everyone knows that they lost all their offensive skill players to graduation or transfer.

But what 2022 was and what was expected in 2023 out of that offensive group did not really show up in reality when it mattered. Last year vs the 4 FCS playoff teams Idaho played the Vandal O only averaged 21.75 PPG. It was really their defense that kept them in or won them those tough games (lost to Montana 21-23, beat Montana St 24-21, beat SIU 20-17, lost to Albany 22-30). The first 3 only averaged 321 ypg on the Idaho D before Albany did light them up for 461y led by Poffenbarger's 341y passing.

Point here being that sure Idaho loses lots of star power from that offense, they really need to be better than they were with those guys. After losing McCoy to Oregon State, they did not sign a transfer QB themselves, instead 2 year back up Jack Layne will take over after starting a pair of games when McCoy has missed and he has showed well. 3 of the top 4 receivers are gone. Jordan Dwyer looks to regain some early 2022 promise after some injuries and then getting lost behind 3 other very good receivers and they only brought in one other receiver a Wash St transfer who has 2 starts there before. RB is a void as well, so they brought in South Dakota RB Thomas who had a terrific season as a true Fr in 2021 (114att-717y-5TD after not playing much the first month). He was injured 2022 and then was a reserve last year but started twice and finished with 398y and 5 TDs. The OL was very young last year. Week 1 they started 3 Soph, 1 rFr and a Jr on OL. In the final 5 games, a tFr had taken over at C. They do lose their most veteran OL and two part-time starters, but they brought in no OL transfers (except for 2 longsnappers) and Eck is an old OL coach. This will be the key and the OL, one would suspect, can improve and play better than they did last year when they were largely still learning on the job (allowed 32 sacks and 71 TFLs).

The D should be just as good as last year. The two best DL are back along with 8 of the top 10 there. LB takes a hit with #1 and #2 tacklers gone, but the team's #4, 7 and 8 tacklers at LB return who combined for 128 tkl, 14 TFLs. Vandals are fine a safety, but the top 2 CBs are off to the FBS, but the third CB who played alot as a tFr (5 PBUs) is back and Idaho brought in 3 DBs from other FCS schools all with plenty starting experience (Trujillo NAla, Thomas UNI, Williams Weber). Abraham Williams is really the interesting one - he has FIVE 100y KO return TDs in his career! He is a 2x All American kick returner. They do lose a first team Big Sky kicker and an excellent long snapper who was an undrafted free agent.

The week 2 game vs Wyoming could be interesting. Idaho has competed well vs FBS under Eck. Last year they did fail to cover the closing line at Cal although comfortably covered most numbers and led 17-14 at halftime there. And in 2022 they covered easily as big road dogs at Wash St (lost by 7) and Indiana (lost by 13). That makes them 3-0 ATS on most lines vs FBS the last 2 years. I don't know what will happen in that Oregon game week 1. The trip to Laramie could be an opportunity as Wyoming will be going through some transition of their own and if the assumption is that Idaho is a shell of their 2023 self and Oregon just trounced them, could be some value on the Vandals week 2.

Edit - I had forgotten apparently that Nevada was FBS - so that moves Eck led Idaho teams to a 4-0 ATS record vs FBS and 1-3 SU (Idaho was favored at UNR). Seeing McCoy's TD-INT ratio go from 2022's 27-7 to last year's 15-8...I know he did face more pressure. #2 receiver WR Jermaine Jackson's ypc was also way down from 19.43 to 12.34 and his yards cut nearly in half. It's tough to say that their O can be better this year after losing the 2022 Jerry Rice Award winner in McCoy and some super receivers plus a very good RB - but production-wise, they really should be expected to do better. Basically they padded their offensive stats vs the bad teams and didn't do much vs equal type competition.

 

[s--k]

Bronco Mendenhall and his New Mexico Lobos losing the home opener to FCS? @CPA-hole

NM has done well vs FCS teams in recent years, but this is no ordinary FCS team...Montana State, a possible semifinal and National Title contending team this year and most years under Vigen.

Mybookie is showing Montana State 7.5 pt road fav, total 55.5. Think Under is the play isn't it?

Montana State's D is normally fantastic. The D came undone in the final 2 games last year vs Montana in regular ssn finale and the round 2 playoff loss to NDSU (although they outgained the Bison by 135y and had a would-be game tying OT xpt blk'd - place kicking haunts MTSU last year). #2 total D and #3 scoring D in the Big Sky last year and they are loaded again this year. They return a 1st Tm DE (Grebe), but do lose a DT transfer to Washington and the other DE starter. Those spots will be filled with reserves who played often last year (Eiden and Brott combined for 9 TFLs off the bench) giving them 4 players along the line who have been on the field a good bit and they have a Wash St DT transfer to add depth. #1 tkl'r and 1st Teamer LB Askelson is gone, but they'll slide O'Reilly in his spot who was actually the #3 tkl'r last year despite only starting 4 games. They are fine at the other LB spot assuming Uliulakepa can stay healthy for a full season (15 starts last 2 years, missed games each year with injuries). They do have to replace their NB, but the rest of the secondary returns everyone after being a bit of a question enteirng last year. It's been a good D for the last several years - New Mexico is not known for much offensive success. New system this year, backup and perhaps promising QB from last year is back, but 6 of 7 OL who started a game last year must be replaced along with a rare difference making RB and a handful of the top receivers.

What New Mexico does have with Bronco coming back, is some familiarity on defense as former HC Gonzales and DC Rocky Long and new HC Mendenhall all have similar philosphies on defensive scheme even though the Lobos lose arguably their 3 best players from last year's D under their 1-year-and-done DC Reffert was weaker than normal.

This game kind of reminds me of what a New Mexico - Wyoming game might be with Wyoming having a predominantly running QB and not a very threatening down-field offense. Last yaer's NM-WYO game did hit 61 pts (NM had one of their best offensive teams in years and the D was worse than normal). But if we go back through the other recent games; 20-22 combined for 41 pts, 2021 17 pts, 2020 33 pts, 2019 33 pts, 2018 34 pts, 2017 45 pts. Montana State was 8-4 to the Over last year, however those games went over because Montana ran it up with 63 on Utah Tech, 57 on Stetson, 38 on Portland St, 59 on Cal Poly, 42 on Sac St, 45 on NAU, and 57 on EWU. Their final over was the 35-34 NDSU game - so Bobcats did a lot of damage in getting those Overs. Will Bronco's Lobo's provide a tougher test? I'm thinking yes, most of those teams that Montana State ran it up on are awful awful defenses.

The offensive struggles New Mexico typically has, how many can they score here? The kind of D that Montana State has and the kind of D I think Mendenhall might be capable of - would think that 55.5 is a high total on this game.

 

[s--k]

UC Davis was an odd team last year. Not sure if the 7 TD loss to Oregon State shell shocked them, but they nearly lost the following week at home vs Southern Utah as a 17.5 fav (were outgained by -32y). EW upset them in Davis the next game where Aggies turned it over 3x. Larison had 255y rushing with an average of 11.6 in just 3 quarters (injured)! Then they completely dominated Cal Poly with a 430-211 (5.0-3.3) yardage edge, but failed to cover laying 23 winning 31-13. What ended up being Montana's turn-around game, Davis lost that one at home, again turnovers were an issue (-2), yardage even although Griz run O and run D controlled the game. Barely beat Weber on the road with both teams being held under 300y total O. Beat up Portland State pretty good, then probably should've lost at Idaho State, but this time a +6 turnover edge in that one helped them to a 21-14 win (slightly outgained). Then they beat Sac State in the finale with Sac playing their #2 QB, but for that win, they got to sit home and Sac State was awarded a playoff birth (resume-wise Sac St probably deserved it).

Just really odd year. Hastings threw for 3048-69.75%-20-6 in 2022. Those numbers dropped to 2380-63.46%-14-10. OL lost some players, but that didn't translate to more sacks (11 2022 vs 9 2023). Not sure if there was more pressure overall. 2022's leading receivers saw RBs be 2 of the top 4 pass catchers, probably as a group the '23 receiving unit was stronger. Larison missed 3 games...

I guess I'm just searching for what kind of team they are going to be this year. Went from +11 turnovers to +1 last year. Defense is kind of upper third or quarter type unit overall compared to other Big Sky teams.

New HC this year (Hawkins is on his son's staff now at Idaho State). New HC was former player and OC/QB coach here recently. On paper they look to be a pretty good group, but didn't live up to it last year. Most key pieces are back at QB, RB and WR/TE led by AA candidate Larison. Return 6 of 8 OL who started last year (both guys gone were all conf). DL should be good, huge questions at their LB positions (lose top 3 and 4 of top 5). Secondary CB and S solid guys led by Hero Sports 7th best returning S in Rex Connors. No significant transfers in.

I was on Idaho to pull the upset at Cal last year which looked for a while like it might happen, but Cal shut them out in the 2H. Don't think I have the confidence to go out on that limb with Davis vs them this year. Cal beat them 34-13 in 2022 and 27-13 in 2019. Cal travels to Auburn the following week. Interesting that new HC Plough was Cal's TE coach last year and UCD's #1 tklr, LB Buchanan transfered to Cal this year plus UCD also has a minor contributor DB transfer from Cal last couple years on their roster now. Probably doesn't mean much but an interesting tidbits.

Davis' schedule looks fairly managable after the Cal opener and if they play up to potential they could make it to mid November with Big Sky Title shot (toughest 3 league games end the season). They definitely have a chip on their shoulder after the playoff snub last year despite beating Sac St who got picked over them. I'm figuring they should be a good play as a favorite vs the weaker teams they have early in the schedule. Just dont' turn it over and should be ok atleast in their first 3 FCS games. They beat Texas A&M Commerce 48-10 on the road to open season last year as 26.5 pt favs (+244y). Now at home, that line may be too high to play unless grab it at open.

 

[steponaduck]

Working on a composite power rankings spreadsheet with SP+, sag, action network and massey to try to formulate a composite "what the line should be" so we can be ready to fire away when all of these lines get released. only issue is SP+ composite is not out yet and sag hasnt been updated since january 8th. anyone know where I can get these composite ratings?

only a few major outliers right now, most glaringly Lafayette @ Buffalo. Massey has UB -15.5, action Lafayette -9.

 

[s--k]

Spent most of my time looking over the Big Sky teams.

Really not sure on Montana this year. They were not trending the right direction, the 2023 season was off to a pretty rough start and it just seems like they circled the wagons, caught lightening in a bottle and had a season to remember. But now one of the catalysts of that team, QB McDowell is gone and his ability to avoid turnovers and his scrambling was huge for the offense. And it was still just a middle pack type Big Sky O. But it was efficient and the D led the way. Who replaces McDowell and what their play is like will be key. The skill players at RB and WR are super. The OL does lose two very good players and takes a hit to some of the depth also. Just think it all comes down to what they get out of QB which looks like either last year's 3rd stringer or Fife from Fresno. The DL and LB unit takes some hits - lose Big Sky D POY in DT Gubner and lose 3 of top 4 LBs. Schedule is good, maybe a tricky game at UND week 2. The Big Sky schedule sets up pretty well...Montana never wins at Eastern Washington and that game could be tricky as well if EWU improves on D. Then at Montana State will be tough. Very managable schedule to get back to a the playoffs for sure, but I would pick Montana State as the Big Sky favorite this year. Preseason Coaches Poll had Montana 1st with 10 votes and MTSU 2nd with 1 vote.

One thing that stood out to me in that Coaches Poll was Weber at #6. Now Weber has had 9 straight winning seasons. However, I think this team is fading. It looks like maybe Munoz can be a decent QB but it was a weak offense last year that did get going at the end of the year, but it helps that they played two of the worst Ds in Idaho St and Cal Poly in November. 3 of the top 4 receivers are gone, they lose 4 starting OL including both All Big Sky players there. Transfers will be relied upon there. Weber has always been led by their D and the DL looks good again. But the rest of the unit is filled with questions. They lose both their 1st Tm All Conference LBs who were #1 and 3 in tackles and they lose 4 starters from the secondary - a 1st Tm CB and the other CB Williams transfered to Idaho. I just don't think this is or will be the same type of Weber team. I'm not even going to assume they beat Portland State at home week 2.

Portland State is a team that if they had a different nonconference schedule or a different Big Sky draw, this is a team that could finish with a winning record. But as it is, the schedule is just super super tough! They play at Wash St and at Boise and also have to play 2022 playoff teams South Dakota and Chattanooga! They went 5-6 last year and beat Cal Poly, E Wash and N Arz....three teams they do not play this year! It is kind of a shame because they have some talent and have been building the team with Fr and playing a lot of Fr which should reach dividends as those players mature. Just don't think it is going to pay off for this staff. Interesting on them, they were #2 in the league in Scoring O at 33.8 ppg. Well....they scored 242 pts in 4 games (avg 60.5) and only averaged 18.5 in their other 8 games.

Eastern Washington is a team that could be in for a better season. They have played a couple tough opening schedules lately and it softens up this year which will help in a few different ways. Instead of opening 1-2 as they have the last 2 years, they could/should open no worse than 2-1 and maybe 3-0 if they can beat SE La on the road in week 3. Then they get Nevada week 4 who has lost to an FCS team the last 2 straight years. The middle of the schedule toughens up quite a bit then it ends pretty easy. So they should get back to a winning record which they did not have in '22 or '23. The big thing is just the D has been so bad. The offense should be fine this year. Have a decent returning QB if they limit the INTs. Top 2 receivers are back, OL is well stocked. Need to figure out how to slow the run, a lot of DL players are back and they add a transfer from Washington who RS last year but he was ranked the #39 DL in the country coming out of high school, Anthony James. So will see if he has an impact. They changed DCs for this year - they can't get any worse. Should be a team that improves this year.

Idaho State is in a similar boat. The O is going to do it's part, also needs to cut down on INTs. The defense needs to make dramatic improvement and they haven't been good on D in a very long time. 8 of their top 10 tacklers do return. And as bad as their D was... they were close in some games they lost to UC Davis by 7, lost to Weber by 12 and Montana by 8. They did lose by 3 TDs a few times, so they are just all over the map up and down. Year 2 for the staff with a pretty veteran team, we'll see.

The 3 worst teams should be NAU, UNC and CP. Recordwise, Portland State should finish in the bottom as well, but roster wise they are better than these other 3 teams.

Northern Arizona is going to be down. Preseason Coaches Poll had them at 7th. Can't see that. Somehow went 6-5 last year, probably only win a few games this year. New staff. TONS of incoming transfers and TONS of guys off last year's team are gone. Looks like they are down 9 of their top 12 OL and 9 of their top 13 tacklers are gone. Assuming they beat Lincoln week 1, doubt they win more than 1 other game until November and I wouldn't be surprised if they finish with like 2 wins.

Phil Steele's preview was written with UNC QB Kuykendall as still on the team and taking over at QB, but he transfered to be Washington's backup this spring. Can't like anything on this team except for Hunter Green who was pretty good handling both the K and P duties last year. They were winless last year. They host NAU and Cal Poly so there is some hope they find a win this year.

And Cal Poly should again have a rough season. They do return a lot of players. Huard is gone, but I didn't think he played well most of the year...or it wasn't him and hte rest of the team was just that bad around him that it made him look bad. They could start 2-1 before their bye if they beat San Diego and Western Oregon. Stanford should wipe the floor with them. Then they play Northern Colorado after that. So as bad as this team probably is, they could actually find themselves at 3-1 if they win in Greeley. But then they might only win a game or 2 the rest of the year.

So my Big Sky order of finish would be (coaches poll rank)

Montana State (2)
Montana (1)
UC Davis (4)
Idaho (3)
Sac State (5)
Idaho State (10)
Eastern Washington (8)
Weber State (6)
Portland State (9)
Cal Poly (12)
Northern Arizona (7)
Northern Colorado (11)

 

[STEED]

Good stuff sk

 

[s--k]

Took me basically a week to go through the Big Sky and another week for the Missouri Valley. I had thought I would go through all these conferences, but clearly I don't have time for that.

MVFC has quite a bit of unknown this year. Not at the top, but some at the top.

South Dakota State will be going for a 3-peat as national champs and they definitely can do it again. They will however be doing it with some new faces. Gronowski won't be throwing to either of the Janke twins, who had been a top the receiving charts since 2021. And their top two TEs are gone this year too. Pretty optimistic they have players capable of carrying the torch there (Wilde, Prejean, Goering and Stoffell at TE will be some of the impact names). RB Davis was drafted 5th round, but the other top 2 RBs are back and all 5 starters were back to the OL last year, this year they are down a couple AAs on the OL. SDSU has had the #1 run D in the ncaa the last 2 years and up front they will have to rely on backups to step up - LB and DBs look pretty elite still. OC Zach Lujan left to be the Northwestern OC. They elevated their run game - TE/OL coach who will call plays and brought in the North Dakota OC as thier new Co-OC. So definitely more questions than the Jacks have had for a couple seasons.

They've beat NDSU 5 straight!

And that brings me to North Dakota State. HC Entz left to take the USC LB job. Odd, maybe. But the Bison fanbase had been growing a little worrisome of Entz tenure. Despite winning 2 national championships as head coach there, well, he has lost 5 straight to the Jacks now - the last two were by 3 scores each. And he had lost 7 games over the last 2 years compared to just 4 games in his first 3 years combined. Couple that with the fact that NDSU actually lost to all the other 3 Dakota teams last year...they were 0-3 vs the Dakotas in 2023 (regular season, they avenged the USD loss in the playoffs). NDSU's playoff run probably saved him from NDSU fans really bring out the pitchforks, so maybe he felt unappreciated and got out on his own terms. I don't know, he says he wants to coach at the FBS level to get that experience. But anyway, they brough back one of their own in former OC Tim Polasek who was at Wyoming as OC the last 3 years. Story goes years back he applied for a GA position on Bohl's staff at NDSU and he had no gas money to drive that far so he sold his golf clubs for gas money, took the job and slept in the stadium for a while and 18 years later he's their head coach. I heard the team internally was hoping last year's OC (and former Bison player) Tyler Roehl would be the pick and there was some skeptism within on the Polasek hire, but he sold them at the team meeting. NDSU lost some key transfers off the 2022 team at made a lot of news, but at the time of, or after, Polesak's hire, only one key player transfered out off the 2023 team (a DL to Kansas). Since then they lost their top WR post spring to Iowa State. Point in this being, the hire has gone over pretty well and if NDSU was losing ground atop the FCS food chain, changing coaches is one way to correct that and the team seems to have bought in just judging by players that could've left who didn't (supposedly a couple were being offered 6 figure deals to transfer out, but decided to stay - namely S Wisnieski and OL Zabel).

As such, Cam Miller is back for his 4th year as QB for the Bison and rather unbelievably, back up Cole Payton has stuck around all this time too! So they have two very capable QBs who excell at running while sometimes not being the best passers they need to be (team passed for below 50% completions in two of their playoff games). Down their top two WRs now might hamper that as well. The OL on paper appears to be a little weaker as well than typical NDSU units in terms of who is lost and who is back. They lost two AAs off the '22 line and this year lose 2 MVFC 1st teamers and lose 3 starters there overall. NDSU is loaded on defense though.

Both these teams have high profile FBS games to open the season. South Dakota State travels to Oklahoma State and North Dakota State heads to Colorado. I'm skeptical that either team will pull the upset. If this was last year's SDSU team I would feel pretty good about their chances. Last year Central Arkansas on the season averaged 31.5 PPG and 418.7 YPG, but in Stillwater they were shutout in the 1H and ended with just 13 pts. But they did get a lot of yards (391). Two years ago a loaded SDSU team was shut down offensively at Iowa, credit to Iowa Punter Tory Taylor really in that game, but SDSU could not do much on offense there.

Bison at CU, just not sure that NDSU offensively has enough like with SDSU. And NDSU is probably a little weaker defensively vs good passing teams than they would be vs the run - if CU is a good passing team? I know CU was terrible on D last year and vs the type of run game NDSU will want to execute that certainly could be effective, but they are down at the OL compared to prior years and when they have to, vs the best teams, the NDSU passing game doesn't deliver and they lost their best WR after spring (who had a really good end of the season, I suspect he will be missed - certainly will be missed in a game vs an FBS team). I will have to get reacquainted with both OSU and CU again. OSU has had some WTF games under Gundy. As for now, no upset predictions from me there.

Some thoughts on the rest of hte Valley tomorrow or Tuesday. It's a league that returned a ton of QBs to last year's teams, 10 of 11 teams (I'm not counting Western Ill who is out of the leauge now) had a returning QB from atleast the prior year's team and several had mulit-year starting QBs coming back. But this year, SDSU and NDSU have their returning QBs, overall however just 4 of 11 have their returning starter coming back.

 

[carolinablue]

Hey man, as you know, I’m not much of a dog player but have my eye on a few out there now and was curious to get your thoughts on which of these three fcs dogs, if any, would be worth a play…

WCU 33.5
Illinois St 24.5
UCD 22.5

Thanks man!

 

[s--k]

Hey man, as you know, I’m not much of a dog player but have my eye on a few out there now and was curious to get your thoughts on which of these three fcs dogs, if any, would be worth a play…

WCU 33.5
Illinois St 24.5
UCD 22.5

Thanks man!

No comment as of now on WCU. Maybe you can help me framing expectations for NC State?

I am high on both Illinois State and UC Davis this year, both could be playoff teams.

Illinois State has a very good team returning at every position and unit group...except for one, QB. They lose a multi-year starter in former Gopher starting QB Annexstad. His backup Rittenhouse returns, who has started a few games the last two years when Annexstad was injured, but he is just your average type QB - but a seasoned veteran by now, and your running type. The real make-or-break guy for this team is going to be if Rubley out of Kansas St pans out. He's tall with the arm. Both are expected to play, it's not an either or. Really like WR Sobkowicz - he's proven he can get open vs the best CBs in the Valley. Stocked up at RB with Blakemore (now King) coming off an excellent season. They have an OL getting some NFL draft hype in Zambrano. After allowing the fewest sacks last year (7), they bring back 3 OL who have starts in multiple years, but do lose some on the interior. Not sure if they have depth to step up or if they are counting on 3 FBS transfers to step in (added 3 OL who are older, 3-4 year type guys from Duke, Minn and W Mich, but haven't played much. Minn OL Guedet has played in 10 career games as the most experienced). Illinois State is always solid on D when the final stats are tallied. It's Brock Spack, former Purdue DC. Think they have a chance to be better on D this year, and they need to be because the best offenses last year weren't slowed as much as they should've been by this D (thinking of SDSU and YSU games). They are more experienced with more key guys returning there this year. 4 guys made All Conference on D and 3 of those return including LB Abdullah who was an All American and Niekamp won MVFC Fr POY for his play in 11 starts as a rFr at LB. Top 7 tacklers return and 10 of the top 12 overall. They were #3 in team sacks on D last year and 27 of those 36 sacks return. 6th year DC and 3rd year OC - so consistency on the staff.

What I don't know is what to expect out of Iowa? Beside killer defense. Offense should be better, I'm assuming - how much better?

Illinois State hasn't faired well vs FBS teams. I think some of that can be pinned on the kind of team, or the strength / lack of on their offense when they played...say Wisconsin in 2022 and were shut out 0-38 or Western Michigan in 2021 when they lost 0-28. Those were historically weak Ill St offenses in those games. What they showed last year on offense, and what they have coming back on offense this year puts them in much better position to play this type of game now....as long as their QB position delivers. That is going to be what it all hinges on. Last FCS team Iowa played, was the infamous 7-3 game vs South Dakota State 2022 where Iowa was a 10.5 pt favorite. South Dakota State was and is a considerable better team than Illinois State here, but the spread is also 2 TDs higher than that one. If I'm not mistaken, I am pretty sure that SDSU line opened about 17. I ML'd SDSU in that game. Not sure it would matter, but the ISU game is on deck for Iowa. What that could mean is that they are going to be holding some things back offensively, assuming they have all kinds of new things they want to do, so we might not get the A game plan here out of the new Iowa O which will help. Iowa's D and the Illinois St QB is where it's going to be decided here.

UC Davis at Cal I might actually feel better about given that they have a veteran QB and Cal isn't going to be the same defensive challenge that Iowa presents. Dan Hawkins is gone and he was a great coach at Davis. But I think this coaching change is going to be good. Several posts up I questioned what happened to the UCD O last year because it was so outstanding in 2022. I think I know, Cody Hawkins, then OC of Davis in '22, well he left to become Idaho State HC and as a result the '23 offensive staff let the team down. They bring in HC Tim Plough who was actually on the staff as OC when some of the Seniors were on this team 4 years ago. This is giving me optimism that UC Davis is going bounce back from one of their most average offensive years they've had last year (6th and 8th last year Big Sky in Total O and Scoring O (389ypg / 25.7 ppg) compared to #3 Total O and #4 Scoring in 2022 with 486 ypg and 35.6 ppg). QB Hastings is been around a while now, RB Larison is simply one of the best players in the FCS and they bring back their top 6 pass catchers. OL does lose arguably their top 2 based off of All Big Sky team selections, but they also return 6 of 8 OL who started last year. I think the O should be able to hold up. The D, might be able to, but I'm a little more nervous about that side. They only return 2 of their 7 all Big Sky defensive players (DE Kennedy and S Connors). A couple transfered out to FBS including #1 tackler LB Buchanon who is now at Cal. Ovearll they do have 2 of top 3 DL back and 6 of top 7 DBs back, but LB is the concern. Do have a good kicker and Tompkins is one of the best all purpose guys in the league (he'll touch it on punt and kick returns as well as being their #1 receiver and #2 rusher last year).

Cal's running game with Ott and company is going to be a challenge for Davis. And like Iowa, I assume that Cal's O overall is going to be better this year, but like Iowa, they just never really impress all that much offensively. If that holds true then it certainly helps UC Davis' chances. I do think the Davis O can compete here.

Davis got their doors blown off losing by 48 at Oregon State last year week 2. Davis' last good team (or good offense) played Cal in 2022 and lost 13-34. Cal only outgained them 415-387 depite the 21 pt win (with a spread of 15.5). Davis turned it over on downs twice and threw INT all in Cal territory, once in the RZ. Cal had a pick-six too. This line is historically high for the series. What is it 22.5/23.5? So line was 15.5 in 2022, Cal won by 21. Line of 14 in 2019, Cal won by 14. It does feel like this team has a chip on their shoulder this year and this is game that Davis is going to care about a lot out of the gates and they look to have a good team. Not like Cal won't care, of course they will, but one of those, they have bigger fish to fry type things, so on that point spread, I would think that Davis has value over 3 TDs.

 

[s--k]

This can lead into some other thoughts I had on the rest of the MVFC. I do think that Illinois State could finish as high as 3rd maybe. After the top two, SDSU and NDSU there are a bunch of teams that are going to be garbled up. One surprise from last year, well two - one good, one bad. South Dakota came up and surprised most people to have the type of year they did, 9-2 regular season and #3 playoff seed! Good is one thing, winning record is one thing, making the playoffs is one thing. But expectation-wise they certainly exceeded expectations. On the other end, Northern Iowa. Day was getting some NFL hype after a really outstanding year two at UNI. They did have some OL issues that were known, but what the impact would be wasn;'t fully realized. UNI might be on a downward slide here going forward, we'll see.

It is different this year. Where as there were 5 teams other than top 2 that looked like they all had a shot at being pretty good. There are lots of questions this year.

South Dakota has all of their offense coming back other than one OL and some RB depth. But they didn't win with offense last year. They were 9th and 8th ranked MVFC in PPG and YPG (24ppg, 347ypg). The O didn't score more than 17 pts in half their league games. They played at a very slow, deliberate pace, possessions for both teams were often limited in their games - this was key in their game vs NDSU where the Bison only saw the ball for 6 possessions the entire game. It might make sense to assume their offense, with the experience back and year 2 of the OC that they can be better on that side of the ball. But the unit that really carried water for the Coyotes last year was the defense. They made a HUGE improvement from 2022 to 2023 going from allowing 29.2 to 17.7 ppg and yielding 85 fewer yards per game. At first glance, they do have most of their DL back and most of their secondary. Big holes at LB. Specificially it is who they lost...they lose the MVFC D POY LB Mogensen who was big time player for them for 3 seasons. They also lose an NFL draft pick at CB, Harden. The FCS only gets about a dozen guys drafted per year, so it is noteworthy when that caliber of player is on a team, and then gone. And while not a 'loss' per se, one player who could be absent for part of the season at least is their other starting CB Shahib Barros who injured his knee in the playoffs last year and his availability is in question right now. So outstanding LB, losses for both CBs and 1st Tm DE in Brandon Webb. Every starter at LB is gone. 5 total defensive players in NFL camps this summer, plus the injury to Barros puts this D behind the 8 ball. And this isn't like a South Dakota St team who can just reload with depth and is always consistent - because as mentioned, their D was pretty bad in 2022. Certainly a regression is going to happen defensively this year, so the offense is going to have to pick it up a good bit if they can. Two all but guaranteed wins in September with Northern St and Drake, but Wisconsin should certainly be a loss and at Portland State might be a little tricky as Portland St does have some O and it is a weird road trip. Call it 2-2 or 3-1 but they might just be a .500 team in league play, could be a little better, but definitely not like last year.

North Dakota was another 2022 playoff team, but they lose a lot this year. Multi-year starting QB and former Northwestern QB Tommy Schuster is gone. OL is a significnat issue for this team right now. They graduated one OL, then another entered the transfer portal end of last season and post-spring, two other OLs transferred out. They landed at Kansas State, Iowa and South Dakota State. This leaves them with just 1 returning starter. To make matters worse, they lost their OL coach to Montana and their OC left for SDSU. It sounds like they have a mess on their hands with the offense in general. One good thing for them is that Bo Belquist is back at WR and he is really a fun guy to watch, he has been their leading receiver 3 straight years. But only 2 of the top 5 receivers return. The offense is supposed to be a high-tempo O with the new OC and OL coach coming over from Winona State. The UND D is never really all that good - I mean, hell I just got done talking about South Dakota's O and they averaged 7.1 ypp on the UND D. Sac Stat went for 7.1 ypp on them too in the playoff game. Their run D will look good vs the average teams and they they get run over for 200-300 by some power team. All 3 starters are gone on DL and all 4 starters are gone from the secondary. The depth looked ok last year so they might not drop off, but I wouldn't expect any improvement. They do seem fine at LB. Iowa State and Montana certainly should be losses and the home game vs Idaho State isn't a gimmie. The Alerus Center is a tough place to play so they do have that going for them on their home games. I think best case they are a 6 win team this year and won't make the playoffs.

Southern Illinois was a playoff team last year as well. And they lose a lot. However this team routinely builds through transfers and the losses for a team accustomed to doing that may not drop off too much. And really, offensively, they can't get much worse. Which is surprising because they had Nick Baker, a 3 year starter at QB. But this O averaged just 25.5 ppg putting them 8th in the Valley. It was an O that did very well vs the bad defenses they played and struggled vs the good ones (like vs YSU their O only produced 100 Total Yards!). So they lose Baker, but the bring in Murray State's 1.5 year starting QB and he is mobile. He doesn't have good stats, but he has some potential and could spark this offense. They bring in Duquesne's leading rusher and a preferred walk-on from Ohio St (Hartson) to help offset losing their top 2 RBs. At WR, they bring in Tennessee Tech's leading WR to bolster their receiving unit that loses 2 of it's top 3. Added a guy from Wisconsin who caught 20rec-313-3TD in 2022, so this isn't just a guy who never saw the field. Plus a contributing WR from Howard also was signed. Their own #1 WR Davis was on their the All Newcomer team, he's back. It is a very experienced OL returning. So this offense really could be and should be improved this year assuming DJ Williams elevates being part of a better team now. The story of this team last year was the D and it was just outstanding! The bad news is that 9 of 11 starters are gone. They bring in some transfers here, like a LB from Akron who has over 100 career takcles, another LB who was Murray State's leading tackler, a DB who had 7 PBUs at Charleston Southern in 2022 (RS FIU last yaer), a S from the Illini who RS last year but was the #8 safety out of HS in the state of Illinois. New DC this year who was DL coach. They were 10 ppg better than their 2022 and 2021 defenses last year. I think with an improved O and an average to sometimes good D, maybe, this team could still be pretty tough - assuming the transfers work out. The opening schedule is tough however, at BYU, at Austin Peay who has a completely new team, host Incarnate Word who will be tough, host SEMO. Maybe they go 2-2 there, or 3-1? They might be as good as 5-3 in league play, could contend for another playoff bid.

YSU was hopeful that they were building towards a playoff team in 2023 and it worked out thanks to a really good offense and a sometimes ok D. This year they lose a really underrated QB in my opinion, Mitch Davidson who passed for over 3000 yards with a 24-6 ratio (he had a 12-1 ratio starting 7 games in 2022). What do they do now. They have a running type QB, their #2 last year, Brungard who they would line up at FB or TE or punt returner last year. So he's athletic. What he can do passing when needed is unknown. And YSU insiders feel pretty good about the QB depth they have, although it is all unproven. RB is a good spot for YSU even though they lose one of their 1-2 punch guys and OL is going to be strong, very experienced group. They are questionable at WR and TE losing their #1 from each unit. Oliver was really good for them '22 and '23 (transfer from UK originally). He was UDFA on Titans. #3 WR Charleston transfered to Michigan which was surprising. They are definitely down on talent at receiver this year. It is going to be a different offense without Davidson and some of their top receivers. I'd expect more of a run heavy O unless one of the unknown QBs emerges with a great arm from camp. Now on D, this is trouble. The run D had been making good strides from '21 to '22 and then '22 to '23. It is going to be tough this year as all 4 starting DL are gone including 6 of top 8 gone. Top 2 LBs are gone and in the secondary they lose their top 3 safeties who each started 7+ last year, starting NB and starting CB who was 2nd Tm MVFC. All told they lose their top 9 tacklers and 11 of 13 tacklers are gone! They had 7 defensive players transfer to FBS and saw a total of 12 defensive players from the roster who played last year transfer out. That is a concern on a couple levels. They do bring in 15 of their own FBS transfers (7 on D) and 4 FCS transfers (3 on D). The Villanova game to open is almost certainly a loss. They can gather themselves vs Valpo and Duquesne before traveling to Pitt - who they have good history playing with Pitt. Probably open 2-2 with an outside shot at the Pitt win if it comes together. I think the week 5 game traveling to Missouri State is going to be tough for reasons I will touch on later. YSU isn't a great road team and they lost close games from last year's very good team (USD, UNI). I can't think this year's team is going to fair better on the road. Their home league schedule is pretty managable, 4-0 or 3-1 at the very least should be expected at home, but I don't see them having a winning record on the road and they look like they could be about .500.

Illinois State did not make the playoffs last year, just missed out with a 1pt loss at UND to close the season and end 6-5. Last year they reminded me a lot of YSU actually. They were equally good on O run and pass and their D would be good, but needed to be better at times. No surpsrise their game vs YSU was a very close one, Ill St lost 38-41 on the road. All told Illinois State lost 4 games by 3 points or less and only won 1 of their 5 close games overall. Good news for them is a bunch of their best players are back this year, except for QB. Which as I said in the earlier post this morning, they do have an experienced backup who has started and they add a guy originally signed with Kansas State who might be pretty good. They are different QBs, the running type vs the pocket type. How those guys play is going to matter what happens for them this season. The O and D and coaching staff is all set up for a nice season. It is tricky out the gate at Iowa and at North Alabama which might be tricky. But then 4 of their next 5 are at home and they don't have to leave the state of Illinois 5 straight weeks. Western Ill is a win. They were upset by Eastern Ill last year. Play host to NDSU which will be tough. At Southern Ill is tough then they get Missouri State at home. Probably go no worse than 3-2 in that stretch, maybe 4-1. However it works I could see their season going 3-4 or 4-3 or 5-2 maybe best case. The final stretch sets up pretty good. At Murray might not be as easy as it looks, but definitely winnable, host YSU, at UNI which the UNIdome is tough, but I expect UNI to be down at Indiana State is a win and host UND in the season finale which I assume is a win at this point. I think they can go 4-1 in their final 5 games which puts them 7-5 overall worst case and maybe 9-3 best case.

Not the teams that did not make the playoffs last year, nor will they this year.

I'll start with Missouri State because part of me thinks they are going to be a little pesky at times this year. They are moving to CUSA next year which has brought a lot of jokes and ire from other MVFC foes. That being what it is, the Missouri Valley Conference has said they are eligible to compete for a conference championship this year. Now, we all know this is not going to happen. But hope springs eternal and that is why I think they are going to be very up for their conference home opener vs YSU in week 5. It has already been announced that will be a night game, something everyone there seems very excited about for some reason. All the players and coaches are talking about going out of the MVFC with a good run - which talk is cheap and all - I just think it makes for a lot of motivation that first game of conference play. So I would not be surprised if Missouri State beats YSU that game. And Missouri State really doesn't have an awful roster or team. They get back Jabob Clark from injury that cost him 7 games last year. He's good. Jacardia Wright is a back-to-back all MVFC RB. Actually I'm surprised he didn't transfer out. They did lose their #1 WR Sharp to Fresno and their #2 was in an NFL minicamp. #3-7 are back and they added 4 WRs in the portal. The OL was very young last year, 4 of their 5 starters from the final game were rFr or So, the other starter was a Jr. All those guys are back, 5 starters, they only lose 2 of their top 10 off the season ending 2-deep and one of those lost moves to DL. Bobby Petrino's son Nick enters year 2 as the OC as well. So this is an offense that is capable. Pachot who stepped in for Clark after injury did transfer out and he was ok, had some trouble with INTs, I think Clark is better QB for them though. Defense was a struggle for Missouri State last year and it may not get a whole lot better this year. The HC who replaced Bobby Petrino was their DC, I would think they improve some on that side of the ball. DL only loses 1 starter who transfered. #2 tackler Lloyd did suffer a season ending injury this offseason, meaning only 1 of their top 3 LBs are back. They lose some depth at DB, but the top 6 return. I expect them to lose at Montana but might show a little better than expected, after all this team routinely plays against the best teams in the MVFC. I have no idea what Ball st is like right now and I haven't really got into any of the OVC-Big South teams yet so it is hard for me to size up their record through the nonconference. They were 4-7 last year. I think they could be better than that this year.

Murray State is an interesting team. Maybe. Jody Wright gets his first head coaching job and some people think highly of him and the coaching staff might be pretty decent. I said before they lost their 1.5 year starting QB who was '22 Fr POY to SIU, but the real interesting part is they signed Jayden Johnson out of Dll who was originally at NDSU. He passed for over 8000 yards and run for another 1600, about a total of 100 TDs passing and running from 2020-23. They signed 3 FBS QBs who have never played, but thinking Johnson wins that job. The rest of the offensive players aren't very noteworthy, naturally they signed a lot of transfers, I count 23 from FBS. The D here has been awful. They came from the OVC and the D wasn't good there either, now they are playing tougher teams. I don't know how many wins this team gets but they might get some covers here or there if Johnson turns out to be good.

I am really down on Northern Iowa. So I guess their AD situation has been a mess and funding for the program has suffered. Most of my feelings are based on just how disappointing they were last season and that was with some pretty good players on O and D. Farley is in his 24th season and maybe it is getting long in the tooth there. They lose assistant coaches a lot. This year they were set to have Mike Leach deciple Luke Falk be there new OC and go with a air-raid style offense. Falk had to unexpectedly leave the team this summer. They hired NAU pass game coordinator Filani who was also with Leach as Wash St quality control and they brought in USC QB coach Tinsley who was at Miss State with Leach. Tinsley I believe is going to be the play caller. How this all works out is anyone's guess. People speculate if Farley will even allow the coordinators free reign. They lose Day who was a 3 year starter and bring in a Ark State transfer and also have last year's backup. They lose the outstanding Schnee at WR, but do return 4 of their top 5 at receiver for the second straight year. It is a good group of RBs and the OL was a huge weakness last year are in much better shape personnel wise with 4 starters back. So that might not all turn out horrible if the QB works out, just the situation with the scheme change and the coaches involved there is hard to estimate. UNI is always solid and sometimes great on D. Top 4 DL gone, 3 of top 5 LBs back and all 4 starters from the secondary are gone from a unit that was average '22 and turned real bad '23. Usually just assume the UNI D is going to be good, but it doesn't look good this year. They lost their DC to La Tech, Jeremiah Johnson. He was on UNI's staff for a long time and many as DC before he went to Kent State. Came back last year and then left again. It's not a coaching staff that retains a lot of consistency these days.

Last and least is Indiana State. I'm assuming that this is last year for HC Mallory (son of the Indiana legend Bill Mallory). Before I was following FCS, it seems that Curt Mallory got things going ok here at State and then the last 2 years have been awful. QB Chambers was MVFC Fr POY from '22. He was injured so missed the start of '23 - when he played, the O was a little better, but still bad and he didn't post good numbers. He has now transferred. Looks like it will be Elijah Owens who played some last year, not well, or some small college transfers. They had two FBS transfer RBs lead the way in '22 and '23. They are both gone. Plez Lawrence was All Newcomer team and he gives them some hope at RB and they added a Dll AA. The top two WRs are gone and were in NFL minicamps. It will be transfers stepping in here I assume. They did have a 2x HM MVFC OL, he's gone now as they lose 3.5 starters. They averaged less than 2 TDs a game last year. Weak offense. The D is a little better than expected occasionally, but they are still bad. They can defend the run at times and have an ok front 7. The pass D was and should continue to struggle. They should start 0-2 and I'm not assuming they beat Dayton or HCU until I look into it further. The only MVFC team they have beat the last two seasons is Western ILL and they dropped out of the league...so will Indiana State win a Valley game this year? Murray at home 10/12 has a chance, maybe otherwise that is it unless something weird happens.

 

[CPA-hole]

Bronco Mendenhall and his New Mexico Lobos losing the home opener to FCS? @CPA-hole

NM has done well vs FCS teams in recent years, but this is no ordinary FCS team...Montana State, a possible semifinal and National Title contending team this year and most years under Vigen.

Mybookie is showing Montana State 7.5 pt road fav, total 55.5. Think Under is the play isn't it?

Montana State's D is normally fantastic. The D came undone in the final 2 games last year vs Montana in regular ssn finale and the round 2 playoff loss to NDSU (although they outgained the Bison by 135y and had a would-be game tying OT xpt blk'd - place kicking haunts MTSU last year). #2 total D and #3 scoring D in the Big Sky last year and they are loaded again this year. They return a 1st Tm DE (Grebe), but do lose a DT transfer to Washington and the other DE starter. Those spots will be filled with reserves who played often last year (Eiden and Brott combined for 9 TFLs off the bench) giving them 4 players along the line who have been on the field a good bit and they have a Wash St DT transfer to add depth. #1 tkl'r and 1st Teamer LB Askelson is gone, but they'll slide O'Reilly in his spot who was actually the #3 tkl'r last year despite only starting 4 games. They are fine at the other LB spot assuming Uliulakepa can stay healthy for a full season (15 starts last 2 years, missed games each year with injuries). They do have to replace their NB, but the rest of the secondary returns everyone after being a bit of a question enteirng last year. It's been a good D for the last several years - New Mexico is not known for much offensive success. New system this year, backup and perhaps promising QB from last year is back, but 6 of 7 OL who started a game last year must be replaced along with a rare difference making RB and a handful of the top receivers.

What New Mexico does have with Bronco coming back, is some familiarity on defense as former HC Gonzales and DC Rocky Long and new HC Mendenhall all have similar philosphies on defensive scheme even though the Lobos lose arguably their 3 best players from last year's D under their 1-year-and-done DC Reffert was weaker than normal.

This game kind of reminds me of what a New Mexico - Wyoming game might be with Wyoming having a predominantly running QB and not a very threatening down-field offense. Last yaer's NM-WYO game did hit 61 pts (NM had one of their best offensive teams in years and the D was worse than normal). But if we go back through the other recent games; 20-22 combined for 41 pts, 2021 17 pts, 2020 33 pts, 2019 33 pts, 2018 34 pts, 2017 45 pts. Montana State was 8-4 to the Over last year, however those games went over because Montana ran it up with 63 on Utah Tech, 57 on Stetson, 38 on Portland St, 59 on Cal Poly, 42 on Sac St, 45 on NAU, and 57 on EWU. Their final over was the 35-34 NDSU game - so Bobcats did a lot of damage in getting those Overs. Will Bronco's Lobo's provide a tougher test? I'm thinking yes, most of those teams that Montana State ran it up on are awful awful defenses.

The offensive struggles New Mexico typically has, how many can they score here? The kind of D that Montana State has and the kind of D I think Mendenhall might be capable of - would think that 55.5 is a high total on this game.

Said on another thread, this UNM team will be more disciplined under Bronco. Whether it translate to more wins is another story. Dampier should be something they haven't had in awhile but could see him struggle here.

Just a side note. MSU Coach, Brett Vigen, was very close to getting the UNM job in the off-season. From what I heard, it was his, until Bronco emerged. Could be a little motivation for Vigen, if you buy into that.

 

[carolinablue]

Appreciate you taking the time with such a detailed response! Took SIU at +19.5 a while back as I think they can keep it within 3 TDs vs BYU as I see that one being a 10-14 point game at most. Like UCD more than Illinois State as I could see a 28-3 type of game with Iowa so would have preferred 4 TDs vs the current 23.5/24 number out there. UCD is interesting as I was hoping for 21.5-24.5 and am seeing 22.5 juiced towards Cal, so been holding off on that one to see where the number shakes out closer to kickoff, but will jump on it if I see things swing back towards UCD. Again, appreciate the time man!