2024-25 BOWL GUIDE

bookieassassin

bookieassassin

Pretty much a regular
ONE UNIT

5-3

Vandy +3/ML W
Florida -9' W
*Penn St -9 W
Texas A&M -3. L
Army -13'. W
Bama -13 L
Baylor -2' L
**N Dame -1. W

* vs Boise
** vs PSU


smaller

9-7

BYU/ Col over 54 L
Memphis/WV over 58' W
WMU +9' W
Ohio St / Tenn UNDER 47' L
SJSU +1' L
Rutgers +7' W
Navy/OU over 42' L
Iowa St +4. W
BC. +4. L
ECaro +7'. W
Iowa +3. P
ND +7'/ under 51' W
UL RB Brown OVER 101 yds L
SCaro/Texas/Minny ML L
Ariz St +13' W
Buffalo -3' W
Montana St +14' live W


small

12-12

Indy +3 1Q L
SMU +3 1Q L
Penn St -1 3Q L
Vols +4' 1H L
Navy +6' W
Army - 0.5 3Q L
Cal +0.5 2H L
Toledo +7 W
Navy +14 live W
UConn +2'/ML. W
Bama -2' live L
Buff/Liberty 1H under 26' W
Buffalo -2 3Q W
Liberty +21' live W
Texas + 0.5 1Q. L
OSU TT over 13' 2 H. W
1H under 23' L
Greathouse OVER 22' rec W
Egbuka OVER 58' rec W
A Williams OVER 23' rec L
J Price OVER 24' rush L
W Howard over 244' pass / 9' rush L/W
Judkins over 54' rush W
RL OVER # of rushes (NA to me)

leans
 
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Will have MUCH more ......strategy, links, etc

Painful to watch lines move / lose value - but typically no big deal in bowls, as the SU winner almost always covers - especially in early crap bowls. It's tough to handicap these games when you have little idea who will play or coach FFS. I wouldn't get in any hurry .......
>> Last minute opt outs / portal - last minute portal, BUT STILL PLAYING (especially brutal) - HC leaves, takes all assistants, or takes few - HC retires, coaches bowl or maybe doesn't - interim coaching for the job, or spending the entire time looking for another job. For now focus on teams that (you kinda sorta know) will see little change.

Coming into this bowl season with evil intentions - off my worst bowl season by far. Typically less senile in bowls.....
>> before LY my worst season for one unit plays was 10-5. LY 5-8 / 28-21 overall. 211-126 last 9/10 yrs - one unit plays 78-37, which is good because I've been confused the L2 regular seasons and barely over 50% or so.


Total on BYU / Col seems low - both teams with improved D's - but guessing Buff stars play here and are given every opportunity to show out. Both were thinking play-offs - so this one a slight disappointment, so I don't see much D here, as playing D in an exhibition game in late December is hard (could be wrong). Expect a slow start after the lay-off - high scoring 2H - A transcendent QB like Sanders playing his last game typically lights it up here - INDOORS too. BYU with a solid pass D, but they bring little pressure (#124). Lean BYU 1H / Col 2H

Like Indy for game - 1Q/ 1H might be better - a fantastic 1Q team that will be prepared - have a great script to start. D is really tough early.
 
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Think Miami, Bama, Ole Miss and So Car show up to play? Obviously not the games any of them want to be in....would think Florida would wanna continue improving.....
 
Thoughts on Army -13 vs Marshall? Have lost their coach and it sounds like maybe a mass exodus is looming viable portal...if they lose a couple key guys on both sides of the ball, especially defense, they are gonna get rolled. I dont see any way these kids can get excited to play Army between Xmas and new years......
 
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Rusty Trombone said:
Thoughts on Army -13 vs Marshall? Have lost their coach and it sounds like maybe a mass exodus is looming viable portal...if they lose a couple key guys on both sides of the ball, especially defense, they are gonna get rolled. I dont see any way these kids can get excited to play Army between Xmas and new years......
Click to expand...

KEY- it's the QB's last game - and maybe last football game of his life? - so play Army/ignore the number
>> for me I missed the early 7/7', hate chasing - plus he has another game before (might get hurt) - maybe play smaller at <14 - add to it later.

Herd is a total unknown here - *losing your coach hasn't been that big of a deal lately. Portal guys might still play (advertise their skills). They might hate the new coach - see a mass exodus, and no show. Either way - the chance they show up - fight for 4Q here is remote at best IMO.


*edit - old man take ha

It keeps changing ..... historically you fade the team with missing coach. In recent years it made little difference, in fact you maybe 'play on' the team with no coach. BUT in the portal area, where players leave with the HC - you again fade that team. LY most every one lost ats.
 
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Rusty Trombone said:
Think Miami, Bama, Ole Miss and So Car show up to play? Obviously not the games any of them want to be in....would think Florida would wanna continue improving.....
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Miami - no way in hell you play UM right now - fade only

Bama - usually a huge fade - but KB likely will have them ready - check status of Michigan's defensive front - they all play Bama won't move the ball.
KEY: To me UM's season 'ended' on their last game - it's regroup, get ready for 2025. For Bama this one is huge - losing this one would be really bad going forward. Coaches know this and will have more intense/focused preparation, gotta wait and see who plays for Bama - plus we should see Michigan money here early.

Ole Miss- wait and see who plays - gotta lean Duke right now. If LK gets guys to play (somehow) they roll. Number won't matter here - Duke wins or gets killed.

S Caro - S Caro the (obvious) play here - I would wait closer to KO. YOU NEVER KNOW WHO IS GOING TO PLAY- recall it's open bidding on the players / QB Sellers will be getting offers every day. Illini top WR Bryant is out for sure - QB should play - but is getting offers too.
 
As a starting place - consider a team's bowl history, especially what happened in recent bowls. Got their ass kicked last year? - usually will go harder this year - (unless their HC doesn't care about bowls). Off a blow out W last year? maybe this one doesn't matter that much.
>> think about it - your family/friends/fans are all excited about their big trip to the Butt Plug bowl in Tupelo, Miss. - they pay $300 for a Motel 6 - you then proceed to get killed by Bowling Green / as they freeze their ass off for 4 hours.......


EMBARRASSING LOSS
* worst first - blow-out to just bad for program/fans/ expectations

CUSE - lost 45-0 to USF ffs
IOWA- lost 35-0 to Tenn
Iowa St - L by 10 to Memphis
Liberty- L 45-6 to Oregon
Cal - L by 20 to TTech
Herd- L 35-17 to UTSA
SJSU - L by 10 to CCaro (-8') -thanks btw
Tulane- L 41-20 to Hokies
GASO- L 41-21 to Ohio (-1')
SMU- L by 9 to BC (-13')
OU - L by 14 to Zona
Ohio St - L 14-3 to Mizzou (-3')
Louisville- L by 14 to USC (-4)

also lost : ULL ... Miami,O ... Boise ... Troy ... JMU ... BG ... UNLV ...A&M ... NCST ..... MIAMI ... Penn St .... Toledo ... Texas ... Wisky
 
BIG WIN

Often a huge bowl effort, is followed by a half-ass one - depending some on how the HC values a bowl game.


USF - 45-0 vs Cuse (+5)
SALA - W 59-10 over EMU
TT - 34-14 over Cal (-3)
GT - W 30-17 UCF (+6')
CCaro - W by 10 SJSU (+8')
TXST - W 45-21 vs Rice
MIZZOU - 14-3 vs Ohio St
UTSA - 35-17 vs Herd
VT - 41-20 vs Tulane
Fresno - 37-10 NMSU
WVirg - 30-10 vs UNC
BC - W by 9 vs SMU (+13)
USC- W vs Louisville / - QB - 42-28 (+4)
Irish, Ga, Ducks, Vols - big W's - doesn't matter much here really

also won : BC ...Terps ...LSU ...KST ...Minny ...NIU ...DUKE ...WKU..... JAXST
 
WHO NEEDS A GOOD BOWL SHOWING / WIN ?
>> will polish this up - early list
* would a bad loss be a disaster? - would a nice W make a huge difference in the direction of the program?

FLA - they have MO - bowl is a must win - LB 2022 (lost 30-3)
NEBRASKA- 2016 last bowl (LB) ffs
BAYLOR - LB 2022 lost to AF - have MO need to play well
OU - 0-2/1-1 under BV - NEED good bowl W
A&M - off Horn loss / lost bowl LY - need nice W
Ohio St - 2021 LBW wtf
NCST- HC stinks in bowls
COL- 2004 LBW
NTX- 2-11 SU in bowls
Navy- LB 2019
UNLV - LBW 2000
SJSU - Last bowl win (LBW) 2015
UCONN - LBW 2010
GASO - HC zero BW - 0-2 sus/ats
BGreen
Vandy - LBW 2013
Illinois - HC no BW
LOUISVILLE - crap start - great finish - need to keep MO going
S Caro- HC needs nice W - LB 2022 lost to ND
TCU
BYU
ARMY - LBW 2021
WAZZU - LBW 2015
TXST - bad year need W
ULL - lost 2/row - great year need W
WMU- HC no BW
Sam H - no BW - ever
 
My man Mensah QB transfers to Duke!

And wow Belichek to the Tar Heels! Hide your daughters!!!
 
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mykzaub=n said:
Cal starting QB to the portal
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Key there will be to see if UNLV stars play:
WR White ..... LB Woodard ......S Catalon

Cal is healthy, most all will play, including RB's - if bu QB can't go, they still have Harris (Ohio) who has played a lot (wondered where he went)

Tough to see UNLV losing play-off bid / coach / key players - regrouping for this one. Cal finally has some momentum - lost LY bowl by 20 to TT - only one bowl win under HC Wilcox

IF those 3 don't play, I'll be on Cal here
 
Wolfeman said:
My man Mensah QB transfers to Duke!

And wow Belichek to the Tar Heels! Hide your daughters!!!
Click to expand...

Jerry Jones shoulda gone to him with about 20 million - "fix it - I'll stay outta your way, I promise!" ha

Looks like Wave HC is staying? - don't forget they have that Ty Thompson (Ducks). Liked the Gators here, but now I don't know.

DON't understand Tulane late season collapse. Army no turnovers - no penalties - no punts - 1st time in 20 years, a total gutless effort. Rumors the HC was leaving I reckon.......?
 
Easily the best site for players/coaches in or out - updated several times/day ......



AGAIN - don't forget guys in the portal might still play - try to see if they're still practicing - have an agent, or have been signed by another school. Some coaches allow their portal guys to play (like Helton at WKU) - some don't.

edit:

ALSO - some NIL agreements might require guys to play in their bowl - but HOW LONG?
>> Jaxson Dart, C Ward, Sanders, Hunter, etc ......play all four quarters? - or just 1H?




>> added

SMU +3 1Q
Penn St -1 3Q

clear edges for both - Penn St a notorious slow starter - great after halftime - 3Q > allowed zero rushing TD / one passing

CAL -1

smaller now at LV - big game for Cal - off ugly bowl loss LY / uglier finish this year vs SMU - solid D, should be able to run here - will add to play if UNLV key players opt out.
 
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adding one unit at BO/LV (-111)

VANDY +3/ML


* giant killer off an 8 OT loss to their rival, with MUCH bigger aspirations ... laying 3 to Diego Pavia in his last game (ever maybe). HUGE game for Vandy - afterthought for GT.

Vandy is gutsy as hell / great dog - but actually a solid team - tough D - #1 ST (SP+)

after bye:

beat Bama > won @ Kentucky > lost by 3 to TEXAS > won @ good Auburn by 10 ...... then lost last 3, to S Caro and Tennessee - and by 7 @ LSU at nite. Any chance they don't play their ass off here? - last bowl win 2013 - 2 losses in 2016, 2018.

GT off great bowl win LY (30-17 vs UCF / +5) - historically one of nation's worst favorites (better lately) / best dogs. Not a huge play (like GT too) - might add to ML depending on how dialed in GT seems to be.



smaller

WV / Memphis over 58'

Tigers the 'obvious' side here - HC is great in bowls (3-0 su/ats) - OC interim for WV.
>> but - it appears that most of WV's key players will play, including QB Greene in his last game. Memphis QB should also play (final game). Most of the key guys out seem to be on D. Memphis should move the ball with no problem - I think WV keeps up. Weather clear / 55 degrees / wind 5 mph.
 
bookieassassin said:
adding one unit at BO/LV (-111)

VANDY +3/ML


* giant killer off an 8 OT loss to their rival, with MUCH bigger aspirations ... laying 3 to Diego Pavia in his last game (ever maybe). HUGE game for Vandy - afterthought for GT.

Vandy is gutsy as hell / great dog - but actually a solid team - tough D - #1 ST (SP+)

after bye:

beat Bama > won @ Kentucky > lost by 3 to TEXAS > won @ good Auburn by 10 ...... then lost last 3, to S Caro and Tennessee - and by 7 @ LSU at nite. Any chance they don't play their ass off here? - last bowl win 2013 - 2 losses in 2016, 2018.

GT off great bowl win LY (30-17 vs UCF / +5) - historically one of nation's worst favorites (better lately) / best dogs. Not a huge play (like GT too) - might add to ML depending on how dialed in GT seems to be.



smaller

WV / Memphis over 58'

Tigers the 'obvious' side here - HC is great in bowls (3-0 su/ats) - OC interim for WV.
>> but - it appears that most of WV's key players will play, including QB Greene in his last game. Memphis QB should also play (final game). Most of the key guys out seem to be on D. Memphis should move the ball with no problem - I think WV keeps up. Weather clear / 55 degrees / wind 5 mph.
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Great write up and research on Vandy….ill join you full unit brotha. Let’s freaking go.
 
Saturday games .....

waiting on WMU to get closer to 10 - BO/LV best bet - will post 9' now

What makes anybody think S Ala will be focused here? Rarely do they compete vs an offense with a pulse ....especially on the road. A difficult spot mostly - but that Major Applewhite's bowl teams at Houston never got off the bus (0-3 su/ats .....-88 points ats) - recall that 70-14 loss to Army?

WMU stinks yes, and D is terrible - but they should run here, and can force turnovers - 6th yr QB is playing his last game EVER. HC is from Bama - they should play hard and should be focused vs a quality but severely overrated opponent. Small play only - IF SA QB Lopez POOF! - like magic, shows up healthy / dialed in they could score 50.

>> line is going back up with Lopez's announcement he's coming back for 2025 - slim, but possible chance there's inside info he's playing? > "the line is telling you he's playing" kinda thing

REMINDER: I'll post bowl strategy / rules tomorrow probably - but recall (esp. in early bowls) - if you like the dog play them on the ML - AND don't be afraid to play them to win SU in your bowl pools. Here I'll play 1/4 unit at +9' / 10 ......1/4 unit or less ML. In pools - EVERYBODY will play SA - I'll play WMU / low confidence #.


Probably will play Navy small at a juiced 7 - I'll wait close to KO - Waiting on some late Army money......
 
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bookieassassin said:
Saturday games .....

waiting on WMU to get closer to 10 - BO/LV best bet - will post 9' now

What makes anybody think S Ala will be focused here? Rarely do they compete vs an offense with a pulse ....especially on the road. A difficult spot mostly - but that Major Applewhite's bowl teams at Houston never got off the bus (0-3 su/ats .....-88 points ats) - recall that 70-14 loss to Army?

WMU stinks yes, and D is terrible - but they should run here, and can force turnovers - 6th yr QB is playing his last game EVER. HC is from Bama - they should play hard and should be focused vs a quality but severely overrated opponent. Small play only - IF SA QB Lopez POOF! - like magic, shows up healthy / dialed in they could score 50.
IH
>> line is going back up with Lopez's announcement he's coming back for 2025 - slim, but possible chance there's inside info he's playing? > "the line is telling you he's playing" kinda thing

REMINDER: I'll post bowl strategy / rules tomorrow probably - but recall (esp. in early bowls) - if you like the dog play them on the ML - AND don't be afraid to play them to win SU in your bowl pools. Here I'll play 1/4 unit at +9' / 10 ......1/4 unit or less ML. In pools - EVERYBODY will play SA - I'll play WMU / low confidence #.


Probably will play Navy small at a juiced 7 - I'll wait close to KO - Waiting on some late Army money......
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Gut feel on SU winners in PickEm pool? I'm throwing out ATS and assuming those who cover, win. Too aggressive here?
 

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small play only - 109 at BM

Navy +6'

maybe just not a good idea to bet against Army / QB Dailey (how TF is he not a Heisman finalist? / what a shit award this has become) - but a great situational edge to Navy. Only ONE game since Nov 16 - Army has played N DAME - UTSA - TULANE (UTSA a very physical team on D).
 
We off and running now…. Already on top with that W. Mich back door. Keep em coming kemosabe. It’s brutally tough with the swirling madness of opt outs, opt ins, coaches out and in, players replacing active players on other teams. If anyone can do it….its you man! I have a vibe on a few, not many at all. Fuggem…bang em Bookie Assassin.
 
Wolfeman said:
We off and running now…. Already on top with that W. Mich back door. Keep em coming kemosabe. It’s brutally tough with the swirling madness of opt outs, opt ins, coaches out and in, players replacing active players on other teams. If anyone can do it….its you man! I have a vibe on a few, not many at all. Fuggem…bang em Bookie Assassin.
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You had to bet on WMU - QB Wolfe in his last game ha.....seems like he was better when at ODU?

At this point looks like a ton of games to avoid - BOL buddy
 
Rutgers feels like a play. Multiple opt outs for KSU and as of now, everyone playing for Rutgers. Strong D. Good run game. Low scoring. 7 or more feels safe
 
Lot of opt outs for Michigan. Everyone seemingly playing for Bama- would expect this line to grow as we get closer

Iowa state could be good value but totally dependent on Ward. QB back for ISU and as of now, no ISU opt outs
 
Like all of those man - Bama/Mich lean Bama big if dialed in - I don't think KD 'allows' a half ass effort here. Can you imagine if they LOSE or look like crap? Michigan's season 'ended' last game vs OSU - NOTHING LEFT FOR THEM TO DO.

Probably will wait 1-2 days before on most all - line on many will go back and forth anyway, and usually won't matter for only a few.....
 
satnightfever05 said:
Lot of opt outs for Michigan. Everyone seemingly playing for Bama- would expect this line to grow as we get closer

Iowa state could be good value but totally dependent on Ward. QB back for ISU and as of now, no ISU opt outs
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Michigan hasn't had as many portal opt outs as I expected -- for now

Still, a very good amount.

Both RBs sitting. Excited for future stud Marshall to show out. You all will like him.

All the NFL guys will be sitting for sure.

Feels like a convincing Bama win, as of now.
 
smaller

Ohio St/Tenn UNDER 47'

How does Tennessee move the ball here?

How does Ohio State / Howard move the ball?

Weather high 20's / winds 5-10

Usually I prefer 1H unders - here game makes a bit more sense - Buckeyes D gives up nothing 2H - might throw in a small play 1H under 23' too.
>> problem with these bowl games - once a team realizes it's season is over, they often quit, especially on D. Vols 1H/OSU 2H makes sense too
 
bookieassassin said:
smaller

Ohio St/Tenn UNDER 47'

How does Tennessee move the ball here?

How does Ohio State / Howard move the ball?

Weather high 20's / winds 5-10

Usually I prefer 1H unders - here game makes a bit more sense - Buckeyes D gives up nothing 2H - might throw in a small play 1H under 23' too.
>> problem with these bowl games - once a team realizes it's season is over, they often quit, especially on D. Vols 1H/OSU 2H makes sense too
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Agree totally.

Both DLs are excellent.

I just don't see bulk scoring here.

I do think 2h has the points though and am looking at 1h more --

But 24-14 keeps sticking in my head.
 
That Ohio winter will definitely come into play… I love that 2nd half Bucks hold vols under.
Fantastic stuff BA. Best of luck with CAL tonight.
 
Any thoughts to WKU second half? Will J Mad put up a fight or nap? GL CAl line is wild seeing +3(-105)
 
Wolfeman said:
Any thoughts to WKU second half? Will J Mad put up a fight or nap? GL CAl line is wild seeing +3(-105)
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sorry buddy extra old this week ha .........

All in on Cal - added +3 - Best offensive player for Rebels out (WR White) , as is DB Catalon - rat basterd LB Woodard is unfortunately playing - OC Marion is gone also

If you can do quarter plays, that SMU 1Q is a good one - PSU takes 1Q off, plus JF defers usually - SMU takes the ball - juiced 3 still available
 
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Unclear what's driving the Tulane love outside a few DL opt-outs for Florida.. Tulane has 1 QB on schollie left, Florida locked in as spring board into 2025 per Napier.. game is in Florida.. getting closer to 10 just feels light, especially after we saw b2b pretty checked out performances from the Wave in Memphis and Army
 
satnightfever05 said:
Unclear what's driving the Tulane love outside a few DL opt-outs for Florida.. Tulane has 1 QB on schollie left, Florida locked in as spring board into 2025 per Napier.. game is in Florida.. getting closer to 10 just feels light, especially after we saw b2b pretty checked out performances from the Wave in Memphis and Army
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Yep I'll be on the Gators at 10 or so....

Tonite no idea interest whatsoever - kinda sorta lean SH - GASO is an underrated team, but HC stinks in bowls (0-6 ats). Might play GaSo live, and/or over

Most all in portal for SH should play....
 
BA, your card feels much lighter this bowl szn vs years past, any reason beyond the portal/opt-out uncertainty or just not a ton of edges this year for some reason?
 
satnightfever05 said:
Unclear what's driving the Tulane love outside a few DL opt-outs for Florida.. Tulane has 1 QB on schollie left, Florida locked in as spring board into 2025 per Napier.. game is in Florida.. getting closer to 10 just feels light, especially after we saw b2b pretty checked out performances from the Wave in Memphis and Army
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Florida -9.5 at pinny now lol
 
one unit

Gators -9'

at BO/LV (-106)

Do I hate betting FLORIDA as a big favorite vs TULANE? - YES

It's just a great deal, and makes too much sense - meaning Florida will lose straight up ha. Gators with a healthy Lagway are actually pretty tough, and played a ridiculous schedule. Beat LSU by 11 / Ole Miss by 7. Lost to Georgia and Texas with 3rd string QB

Tulane's best win? - early season at ULL probably (Navy maybe, but QB was out). Wave got outgained by 50+ / ULL turned the ball over.

This one is really huge for Florida / totally meaningless to Tulane. Last bowl was 2022, lost by 27 to Beavs (+8) - which followed up 2 other no-shows. Last bowl win 2019, last time they played well in a bowl was 2018. A poor performance here would be - terrible for support/momentum.

I would expect Tulane to come out strong here - bu QB can run well / they play slow. I'll look to play Fla live/2H too, with maybe the OVER as well.
 
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