2024-25 BOWL GUIDE
- Thread starter bookieassassin
- Start date
bookieassassin
Pretty much a regular
woke up at 3AM to check my accounts after big Aggie victory.......wtf
Don't like much today boys - too many questions - contradictions, and probably outright LIES ha.....
>>> recall the rule is : how did they practice?
Colorado will no doubt show up and play hard - but did they really WANT to be playing BYU in the stinking Alamo Bowl? do you think BYU practiced hard/ intense for Deion/ Buffs? (yes)
Miami might kill Iowa State sure - but were they 100% focused preparing for this one? ISU was hoping for bigger things probably - but will they be dialed in vs the Canes? (yes). Problem? Matt Campbell weak bowl coach.
All smaller, just for action plays - do like Army tho
Got Army at 13' at LV -116 - 14 probably fine
BC +4 at BM
Iowa State +4 at H
Small
UConn +2'/ML
leans - BYU - TCU - EC - Miami/ ISU over - BYU 1H
Might be on EC if it goes up (NCSt is terrible in bowls) - but they have key guys out (more than NCSU)
If ULL QB plays - I might play them live - if not ....Frogs
Best play of the day?
>>> IF Colorado gets down early ( good chance IMO) - stars all seem to be dialed in - I'll definitely look for a 2H play on Colorado. One of my favorite bowl angles is to play on a star QB playing their final game - especially after a slow start. Massive 2H drunk ha - plays on John Football and RG3 (same bowl). Make sure SS is healthy .....
Busy today boys - won't be around - BOL
Don't like much today boys - too many questions - contradictions, and probably outright LIES ha.....
>>> recall the rule is : how did they practice?
Colorado will no doubt show up and play hard - but did they really WANT to be playing BYU in the stinking Alamo Bowl? do you think BYU practiced hard/ intense for Deion/ Buffs? (yes)
Miami might kill Iowa State sure - but were they 100% focused preparing for this one? ISU was hoping for bigger things probably - but will they be dialed in vs the Canes? (yes). Problem? Matt Campbell weak bowl coach.
All smaller, just for action plays - do like Army tho
Got Army at 13' at LV -116 - 14 probably fine
BC +4 at BM
Iowa State +4 at H
Small
UConn +2'/ML
leans - BYU - TCU - EC - Miami/ ISU over - BYU 1H
Might be on EC if it goes up (NCSt is terrible in bowls) - but they have key guys out (more than NCSU)
If ULL QB plays - I might play them live - if not ....Frogs
Best play of the day?
>>> IF Colorado gets down early ( good chance IMO) - stars all seem to be dialed in - I'll definitely look for a 2H play on Colorado. One of my favorite bowl angles is to play on a star QB playing their final game - especially after a slow start. Massive 2H drunk ha - plays on John Football and RG3 (same bowl). Make sure SS is healthy .....
Busy today boys - won't be around - BOL
Good stuff, have a great Saturday
bookieassassin
Pretty much a regular
btw
That Buff 2H idea works the other way too ....
If Colorado stars plan to go all out early - maybe sit late (very possible) - BYU 2H / ML might be $$
That Buff 2H idea works the other way too ....
If Colorado stars plan to go all out early - maybe sit late (very possible) - BYU 2H / ML might be $$
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
My big concern is the stars sitting in the 2h for UC. Doubt they'd announce anything like that ahead of time but would it be shocking?
BYU/CO prob the most unique Bowl Game I've seen in a while from the perspective that it's a non-New Years bowl/playoff game/meaningful game.
For CO: i don't see that family risking the injury, I think if you can find good unders on Sanders props, you should aggressively pursue that. WR Hunter, WR Wester, WR Horn, or WR Sheppard could sit at any point as they have all declared for the draft.
For BYU: BYU is one of the best defenses CO has faced this season and they are expected to be at full strength. One thing to note, WR Darius Lassiter is suspended for the first half. I'd expect BYU to push getting him involved in the 2H making 4Q big plays an increased possibility.
I have CO -2.5 on neutral which is basically at current market price, but given the uncertainty of playing time with CO star players, possibly a lack of motivation for CO, and motivation from BYU, I think BYU is very much in play.
Also helps that Colorado is a VERY public side today fwiw.
For CO: i don't see that family risking the injury, I think if you can find good unders on Sanders props, you should aggressively pursue that. WR Hunter, WR Wester, WR Horn, or WR Sheppard could sit at any point as they have all declared for the draft.
For BYU: BYU is one of the best defenses CO has faced this season and they are expected to be at full strength. One thing to note, WR Darius Lassiter is suspended for the first half. I'd expect BYU to push getting him involved in the 2H making 4Q big plays an increased possibility.
I have CO -2.5 on neutral which is basically at current market price, but given the uncertainty of playing time with CO star players, possibly a lack of motivation for CO, and motivation from BYU, I think BYU is very much in play.
Also helps that Colorado is a VERY public side today fwiw.
bookieassassin
Pretty much a regular
EC +7' small
Wolfeman
Enjoys Full Moons
One of the wildest I’ve ever seen a coach blow his top!!
bookieassassin
Pretty much a regular
Colorado -1' 2H
not watching - so smaller
not watching - so smaller
bookieassassin
Pretty much a regular
added at LV
Bama -13
Iowa +3
Both more hunches than anything....
Bama is motivated to kick the shit out of Michigan- Michigan has to be getting ready for 2025 (Bama is not a focus)
With great RB out - Iowa at a matchup disadvantage - but Mizzou stinks / Iowa should ugly this one up beyond belief - typically they bounce back off a bowl loss (lost to Vols by 35)
Bama -13
Iowa +3
Both more hunches than anything....
Bama is motivated to kick the shit out of Michigan- Michigan has to be getting ready for 2025 (Bama is not a focus)
With great RB out - Iowa at a matchup disadvantage - but Mizzou stinks / Iowa should ugly this one up beyond belief - typically they bounce back off a bowl loss (lost to Vols by 35)
bookieassassin
Pretty much a regular
Retzlaff was playing poorly - BYU wasn't really doing much (it looked like) - thought they would compete at least ha - what an embarrassment wow
Obvious when you think about it ..... BYU was totally focused on Colorado - Colorado was focused on themselves....
>>>> the key is figuring that shit out BEFORE the game begins ha
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Rusty Trombone
Pretty much a regular
Plus Burden not playing for Mizzou.....cant see them sustaining drives with no deep threat.
bookieassassin
Pretty much a regular
smaller play - 6.5 teaser / -110
Irish +7'/ under 51'
Coinflip / low scoring game - kinda like the Irish here, don't like betting against Kirby in a big game
Irish +7'/ under 51'
Coinflip / low scoring game - kinda like the Irish here, don't like betting against Kirby in a big game
Wolfeman
Enjoys Full Moons
Boss man, fearless leader, Bookie Assassin… I wanna confirm above is PENN ST -9 for the previous game vs SMU? Great call btw… Didn’t see a writeup for the Boise game currently -11. Hey man, you’ve made my holidays once again with your 1 Unit bangers, your insight on how to handle live or 2nd half bets for matchups, and your unreal Dilligence for line up madness and finding the pulse for every squad going into their last game is like NOBODY else… I pummeled the ML on some of your dogs like Winners 1941 gets down on his blow up dolls. I blew it up…mahalos
Let’s finish strong brother, these playoffs are an entirely knew dimension….i have faith in you Kemosabe. Cheers
bookieassassin
Pretty much a regular
Good man - happy new year buddy
Nope that's for Boise - a weird 2am opener from MyBookie seems like - small play at current # maybe
>> probably should have made it a smaller play - but I think Boise is really overmatched here
HERE'S THE THING ..... I just don't think Boise is that good ha
>> a fun team (like Colorado), and that AJ seems like a cool dude and fine runner, but probably about the 25-30th best team in the country. Collin Wilson (AN) has them at #39 - SP+ #21 - Brad Powers (solid PR numbers) #37
BIG PICTURE - what did they do?
* Only lost by 3 vs a MUCH weaker Oregon team (then) looking ahead to Oregon State a bit - one that almost lost at home to IDAHO the week before (14-7 in the 4Q) - Vandals had 3 sacks/6 TFL - Ducks O only 107 rushing (2.9/rush) - their OL was terrible at that point
* even game @ (#30 SP+) UNLV- Rebels outrushed Boise, and averaged 6.3/play - 188 rushing (5.2) - AJ averaged 3.9/rush
* fine win at home vs UNLV - Rebels again 6.2/play tho
#79 GASO - allowed 45 points /460 yds
#61 Wazzu - fine W
#106 Utah St - D allowed / 30 pts /500+
#104 Hawaii - nice W but 13-7 in 4th
#120 SDSU - allowed 24 to a really bad O
#115 Nevada - won by 7
#90 SJSU - allowed 483 (450 passing) lil' sparty 4 TO's or tight game
#117 Wyo - won by 4
#101 Oregon St - nice W but Beavs had quit by then
Ready to compete for a national title? - based on what eggzactly?
I don't see how Boise stops PSU here - they ran for 300 on the Ducks (8.7/rush) - 523 TO - Boise can't tackle either - per PFF (AN source) #133. They shouldn't be able to get pressure on Allar (like they do vs these shit OL's they face). Penn St is gonna load up the box - tell a very average QB to beat them.....
PSU is a great road team, JF is the top coach to bet on easily. As a road favorite they've won 26/30 - a run of 17/20 - covered 15. They lose vs top teams sure - Boise ain't a top team. Can Boise ugly this up - JF make a dumb decision or two? YES
But I don't think they can keep up - Boise should get out to an early lead - even up at the half - PSU should take over late (great 3Q/2H team). JF likes not only to win, but to cover as well.
$ at current I would only go small maybe - wait for a live/2H play on PSU - or a game total OVER (live/2H) - maybe PSU TT over - line should only go up, doubt it dips below 10 - should be about 12'/13 IMO.
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Well Jesus, glad I asked!!! One helluva write up brother. GL! I caught -9.5 (-127). Let’s GO
bookieassassin
Pretty much a regular
like this prop
UL RB Issac Brown OVER 101 yds rushing
-114 at BO
This one should be MUCH higher IMO.....he's a FR that doesn't get a ton of touches - Cards are primarily a passing team, but with the QB/ WR out he should here...
>> plus Huskies are tough vs the pass - weak vs the run (#123 rush success on D) - AND GET NO PENETRATION (#133 TFL / UL #19 TFL allowed) << huge.
The times he got over 20 carries?
* 26-178 vs Kentucky
* 20-151 vs Clemson
* 20- 146 vs Virginia
He averages 7.3/rush
UL RB Issac Brown OVER 101 yds rushing
-114 at BO
This one should be MUCH higher IMO.....he's a FR that doesn't get a ton of touches - Cards are primarily a passing team, but with the QB/ WR out he should here...
>> plus Huskies are tough vs the pass - weak vs the run (#123 rush success on D) - AND GET NO PENETRATION (#133 TFL / UL #19 TFL allowed) << huge.
The times he got over 20 carries?
* 26-178 vs Kentucky
* 20-151 vs Clemson
* 20- 146 vs Virginia
He averages 7.3/rush
bookieassassin
Pretty much a regular
WAIT A DAMN MINUTE ......I'm laying 13 in a monsoon?!......
bookieassassin
Pretty much a regular
Bama -2' LIVE
edit; way too eager - after a start like this - it's better to wait for halftime for a 'reset'
edit; way too eager - after a start like this - it's better to wait for halftime for a 'reset'
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bookieassassin
Pretty much a regular
today
UL/Wash - great game to stay away - I would lean Huskies maybe - really a disappointing year for Louisville - you would think they're ready to get THIS year over with (8-7 starters back from 10-4 / played in ACC title game 2023) >> now they're in EL PASO?
>> yes - a huge drop for UW, off national title game - but starting over this year, so kinda sorta different
Cards should be able to run here - I don't wanna bet against Brohm
SCaro/UI - love SCaro - but too many points .... will bet SCaro live and/or include in ML parlay
Baylor/LSU - waiting for 3/2' - love the Bears here - ain't laying > 3 to LSU, esp. after I coulda bet them as a dog
UL/Wash - great game to stay away - I would lean Huskies maybe - really a disappointing year for Louisville - you would think they're ready to get THIS year over with (8-7 starters back from 10-4 / played in ACC title game 2023) >> now they're in EL PASO?
>> yes - a huge drop for UW, off national title game - but starting over this year, so kinda sorta different
Cards should be able to run here - I don't wanna bet against Brohm
SCaro/UI - love SCaro - but too many points .... will bet SCaro live and/or include in ML parlay
Baylor/LSU - waiting for 3/2' - love the Bears here - ain't laying > 3 to LSU, esp. after I coulda bet them as a dog
I also love Brown over 1.5 receptions and over 11.5 receiving yards as well. I feel like he gets a TON of usage today.
bookieassassin
Pretty much a regular
It's gonna be tough to get margin for sure - plus Bama has the wrong cleats somehow .... Can they score 30+ 2H?
Gonna take multiple Michigan turnovers and ST mistakes - may just turn this one off / take a nap ha - hoping this is just a bad dream .........
bookieassassin
Pretty much a regular
In another 90 minutes or so, I'll be posting "never in doubt" ..........
added another dumb play
(S Caro - Texas - Minny) ML - plus money
* don't think I'll be on any of these - Minny if it drops some - SCaro maybe live - might play ASU at 14, but that's a really tough game for ASU to win SU)
Gonna add Baylor at 2'/3 - dropping - knew we would see drunk Cajun $$
added another dumb play
(S Caro - Texas - Minny) ML - plus money
* don't think I'll be on any of these - Minny if it drops some - SCaro maybe live - might play ASU at 14, but that's a really tough game for ASU to win SU)
Gonna add Baylor at 2'/3 - dropping - knew we would see drunk Cajun $$
bookieassassin
Pretty much a regular
Bears dropping at BO/LV - adding one unit play
Baylor -2'
*locking in smaller play at -114 - waiting a bit for better deal or even 2 - don't think it goes back up? ..... Cajuns are hammering that 3/3' as BAC rises ....
Baylor seems all in - they've got ONE backup in portal - and have actually ADDED players - getting 2 LB back from injury. LSU? - at least 7 starters out / 17 in portal. Don't love the number - but one team is there to win, the other will play hard, but is ready for this year to be over with.
Baylor -2'
*locking in smaller play at -114 - waiting a bit for better deal or even 2 - don't think it goes back up? ..... Cajuns are hammering that 3/3' as BAC rises ....
Baylor seems all in - they've got ONE backup in portal - and have actually ADDED players - getting 2 LB back from injury. LSU? - at least 7 starters out / 17 in portal. Don't love the number - but one team is there to win, the other will play hard, but is ready for this year to be over with.
Got absolutely destroyed yesterday. Saved some face with PSU (Thank you BA!) I'm all in on Notre Dame, I think you're right BA, low scoring game, think ND grinds it out and controls game on the ground. My numbers really like the Irish as well.
Cheers and Happy New Year BA!
Cheers and Happy New Year BA!
bookieassassin
Pretty much a regular
small play
ASU +13'
*1H 7' might be better
ASU +13'
*1H 7' might be better
bookieassassin
Pretty much a regular
WELL...... if anything fade my dumbass at this point ha
BIG PICTURE - just seems like it ain't their year - Irish are playing great and have match-up edges on both sides of the ball. Ga with huge ST edge.
Dawgs should be able to run some sure (Etienne healthy) - but should struggle in the RZ (Irish tough). ND with an elite pass D (#1 or close) - Georgia should be one dimensional on O. ND's running game, esp QB - should give Ga problems.
Not betting Irish because I don't like the uncertainty a bu QB brings - plus betting against Kirby in a big game? BOL buddy
Here's my numbers for games left pending. BA I'm curious as to how close you are on these:
Rose Bowl: Ohio State -1 (Current line -2.5)
Sugar Bowl: Notre Dame -4 (Current line -1)
Look ahead:
Orange Bowl: Penn State +2 vs Notre Dame
Orange Bowl: Penn State -2 vs Georgia
Cotton Bowl: Texas +3 vs Ohio State
Cotton Bowl: Texas -1 vs Oregon
Rose Bowl: Ohio State -1 (Current line -2.5)
Sugar Bowl: Notre Dame -4 (Current line -1)
Look ahead:
Orange Bowl: Penn State +2 vs Notre Dame
Orange Bowl: Penn State -2 vs Georgia
Cotton Bowl: Texas +3 vs Ohio State
Cotton Bowl: Texas -1 vs Oregon
OSU/UT Opener: OSU -6
Bumped to 6.5 now down to 5.5 at Circa...some 6.5's still out there (MGM, HR). As talented on both sides of the ball OSU is, I think 6.5 is little too steep
bookieassassin
Pretty much a regular
sorry buddy - extra old /senile + busy
OSU -3 vs Horns
>> Is OSU really (that) good? - is Texas really (that) bad? Not long ago Day was an idiot - on his way out. Horns have been arguably the most complete team in the country week to week. Now Horns are 6 point dogs? The only way to get to 6 is to downgrade Texas 2-3 points for weak ASU effort. I see it more as a lookahead thing just like their fans ha....... several I know skipped this one, waiting for next 1/2. I was hoping for a better Duck / Horn effort, so I could take OSU at 2/2'. At current it's gotta be Texas or nothing probably.
Irish -2 vs PSU
>> I like the Irish here I think. PSU in-game coaching is a serious liability - they should destroyed Boise.
Ga -1 vs PSU
>> Kirby vs JF? haha
100% agree, the 6.5 was worth a nibble for UT, probably wouldn't go below that. If it does pop back up toward 7 I would think about adding, but I agree I much rather have had the reverse and taken OSU as a small fav -2.5.
ND opens at Circa -1.5 vs. PSU, pretty much where I have the line so no real value, but agree ND is the superior side, and the fact that Kirby was outcoached today should be even more amplified vs Franklin.
Might be interested in ND or OSU to win the Natty depending on the price, but there is prob more value doing ML rollovers at this point.
bookieassassin
Pretty much a regular
added one unit play
Irish -1
-115 at BM
Irish -1
-115 at BM
bookieassassin
Pretty much a regular
Irish are too banged up on D to hang with Ohio State I think.... Texas? - not sure
>> Georgia > Penn State ......THEN the Buckeyes?
DOUBLEUP4LIFE
Proud Member of Bills Mafia
Happy New Year !!
bookieassassin
Pretty much a regular
Gotta see some Liberty money you would think - no reason to play 3/3' ......seeing how far it drops - looking for -1/ML
bookieassassin
Pretty much a regular
Mestamaker wtf!?
Ha - busy tonight....looking for live/ 2H play on Minny.... Hokies fight for awhile - Minny pulls away late
Ha - busy tonight....looking for live/ 2H play on Minny.... Hokies fight for awhile - Minny pulls away late
Wolfeman
Enjoys Full Moons
Good to see ya DU4L!
No dice, Buff pushed up to -4. Maybe some live ML?
bookieassassin
Pretty much a regular
smaller play on Buffalo at a (too much) juiced 3 - small 1H under 26'
>> added Minny live at 3 - will do the same here if it works out
Liberty had a terrible year - off 13-1, 14 starters back - can't see how this game is anything more than a vacation - Buffalo should be there to win.
>> sorry forgot this one started at 11:00E ha
>> added Minny live at 3 - will do the same here if it works out
Liberty had a terrible year - off 13-1, 14 starters back - can't see how this game is anything more than a vacation - Buffalo should be there to win.
>> sorry forgot this one started at 11:00E ha
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