2024-25 BOWL GUIDE

2H notes

rush O (1Q > 4Q)
*B - 3.8 > 3.0 > 5.0 > 4.8
*L - 5.1 > 6.2 > 5.2 > 5.8

rush D
*B- 4.4 > 3.9 > 3.7 > 4.4
*L - 5.5 > 3.9 > 4.4 > 2.2

scoring O
*B - 6 > 7 > 8 > 7.5
* L - 3 > 10 > 4 > 10

scoring D
* B- 4 > 10 > 7 > 9
* L - 6 > 7 > 5 > 5
 
gonna play the trend and add SMALL

Buffalo -2 3Q

Liberty coaches do nothing at halftime - OR before the game - typically they wake up 4Q
> 3 rushing TD all year 3Q - (10 in 4Q) - also #102 in scoring 3Q (#5 4Q)

Buffs #25 in 3Q scoring - av 5.0/rush - allow 3.7 - only 3 TD allowed on the ground
 
BTW - a (late) full disclosure

Didn't think too much about it - strictly a BIG PICTURE play
>> but a negative with a play on the Irish is that PSU matches up fairly well - so I wouldn't lay too many

Just think ND wins the game - JF gets his ass outcoached ........AGAIN. They should stay close. More later.
 
Too funny.....

Burger - who actually won the job at App St - gets his boys to come see him play, then sucks beyond belief / gets beat up by stinking BUFFALO
 
Man something tells me Texas is what I thought. The best of the Big 12 (barely edging ASU) and not the best of the SEC (as UGA proved). Had a tough going @Ark, @Vandy, @ A&M was closer than the score. Sark doesn’t impress me as a killer…in fact he’s not a fave coach of mine in anyway. I’m struggling to find a way Texas scores more than 17-20 here without help (turnovers, spc teams, flags etc) .

Other side of the ball it’s like buckeyes finally figured out how to use those bad ass WR’s. I love Egbuka. That BS game plan vs Michigan was silly, Ego in the way for Day sticking to the run. Now the offense is wide open and absolutely the best left in my opinion.. They won’t try to pound it on the Horns, if they do they’re right back in a slobber knocker like Michigan. I do like the fact they’re coming into Texas for this as well. I think it builds an underdog mantra that suits Day and Ohio st better than a neutral location even though their favorites -6.

Kinda telling Ohio St -110 for natty vs the Field.

Question on PSU line, do you see this hitting PSU+2.5 or +1.5 as next move? These tight games and “gambling on 4th down “ coaching and analytics..2 pts could be tough to cover. Amazing how 2 pts became the new 3 in NFL & NCAAF a few years back. Tremendous amount of 1-2 pt wins in NFL.

Good lord, I better put the Fortaleza respesado away! My bad for going off Braddah
 
Question on PSU line, do you see this hitting PSU+2.5 or +1.5 as next move? These tight games and “gambling on 4th down “ coaching and analytics..2 pts could be tough to cover. Amazing how 2 pts became the new 3 in NFL & NCAAF a few years back. Tremendous amount of 1-2 pt wins in NFL.

If you like PSU, I think I would wait for 2' or better - an announcement that Abdul Carter (is out) might push it to 3 briefly - or a much cheaper buy up to 3 for sure - and a better ML deal.

ND RB Love will play (per MF) - less than 100% for sure - but I don't see any announcements that could cause the line to drop. Right now it's all negative Irish talk (injuries / short week) - can see late Irish money
 
bookieassassin said:
Question on PSU line, do you see this hitting PSU+2.5 or +1.5 as next move? These tight games and “gambling on 4th down “ coaching and analytics..2 pts could be tough to cover. Amazing how 2 pts became the new 3 in NFL & NCAAF a few years back. Tremendous amount of 1-2 pt wins in NFL.

If you like PSU, I think I would wait for 2' or better - an announcement that Abdul Carter (is out) might push it to 3 briefly - or a much cheaper buy up to 3 for sure - and a better ML deal.

ND RB Love will play (per MF) - less than 100% for sure - but I don't see any announcements that could cause the line to drop. Right now it's all negative Irish talk (injuries / short week) - can see late Irish money
Click to expand...
Actually im backing ND. I grabbed a -1.5 for a unit and was looking to add another. GL.

Nice smash and grab on Montana St tonight!
 
bookieassassin said:
Question on PSU line, do you see this hitting PSU+2.5 or +1.5 as next move? These tight games and “gambling on 4th down “ coaching and analytics..2 pts could be tough to cover. Amazing how 2 pts became the new 3 in NFL & NCAAF a few years back. Tremendous amount of 1-2 pt wins in NFL.

If you like PSU, I think I would wait for 2' or better - an announcement that Abdul Carter (is out) might push it to 3 briefly - or a much cheaper buy up to 3 for sure - and a better ML deal.

ND RB Love will play (per MF) - less than 100% for sure - but I don't see any announcements that could cause the line to drop. Right now it's all negative Irish talk (injuries / short week) - can see late Irish money
Click to expand...
Feels like PSU getting very little love. If Carter is announced as a no go, could see it hit 3.

Either way, still on the Irish lol
 
satnightfever05 said:
No word on Carter. Not sure what’s dropping this line. Don’t really get it. People putting money on James Franklin? Lol ok
Click to expand...

Doubt there is anything before the game - probably a minor AC sprain - they'll shoot him up, he'll play as long as he can probably.
>> IF you could slip into Irish practice - check out scout team D - a #11 with a big X marked on his left shoulder ha....."knock the piss out of me right here" << you guys are crazy if you think that doesn't go on BTW
 
Love the movement…. Mr Assassin, how would you feel about a slow start as usual from Penn st. Kinda like that ND -1/2 (+120) I’m spotting.

Ohio st -5.5 now off that key 6.

Let’s finish strong man…I’m still doing cartwheels over that Penn st over Boise smash. Thx
 
Wolfeman said:
Love the movement…. Mr Assassin, how would you feel about a slow start as usual from Penn st. Kinda like that ND -1/2 (+120) I’m spotting.

Ohio st -5.5 now off that key 6.

Let’s finish strong man…I’m still doing cartwheels over that Penn st over Boise smash. Thx
Click to expand...

Dunno man - I (think) I like the dogs in the 1H / both games......

$$$$$ If you check the board at blankets - you'll see multiple posts suggesting that heavy SNOW will be a factor here .......:oops:
 
bookieassassin said:
Question on PSU line, do you see this hitting PSU+2.5 or +1.5 as next move? These tight games and “gambling on 4th down “ coaching and analytics..2 pts could be tough to cover. Amazing how 2 pts became the new 3 in NFL & NCAAF a few years back. Tremendous amount of 1-2 pt wins in NFL.

If you like PSU, I think I would wait for 2' or better - an announcement that Abdul Carter (is out) might push it to 3 briefly - or a much cheaper buy up to 3 for sure - and a better ML deal.

ND RB Love will play (per MF) - less than 100% for sure - but I don't see any announcements that could cause the line to drop. Right now it's all negative Irish talk (injuries / short week) - can see late Irish money
Click to expand...
here is your answer:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1877506965368103312
 
I still have no idea who TF is gonna win this game...

A horrible look for JF if he loses.... considering all the ND injuries - QB edge - many more difference makers - he's got a bigger, faster, more talented team......
 
One thing you can count on are those white Oxford, khakis, and boots wearing Horns fans will all look exactly the same…maybe they mix it up with the new McConaghey leather look but I doubt it. Thinking outside the box doesn’t come easy to these guys…The Longhorns have just never had the passionate home field of an A&M. I think we will see Ohio State representing with enough to nullify the alleged home field advantage. I could be wrong, but I think the pressure might be on the Horns and Sark. Buckeyes might be a little looser with an underdog frame of mind.

Can’t wait
 
haha

The crowd will be interesting.....

I (think) I'm going against you on the crowd - EVERY Texas fan hates OSU fans - because they were abused the last game in Columbus. Many still talk about it.
>> plus many skipped the ASU game (getting expensive) - gearing up for this one

How many OSU fans think Texas has a shot to win? - a ton of flights were delayed - I know several that are gonna miss it (early morning flights delayed till tonite late) < pisser there ..... are some OSU fans 'waiting' for the title game - figuring this one is a gimme?


BIG PICTURE: will Ohio State continue to play like they have been (ie like LSU 2019)? or will the moment be too big for Howard/Day? ......will Texas rise up and play to the level of their opponent yet again?
*one thing is an extreme probability - Texas should not be able to run here - AT ALL - so most likely this will be the Quinn Ewers show

If live betting - can OSU get pressure rushing only FOUR? - if so game over ...... if not, and they have to blitz - Ewers destroys blitzing teams
* problem? - OSU's DL is playing at a historically good level - vs the Ducks they disrupted 90% of rushing attempts - two DE's are ridiculous


GTTH - Horns/Sark figure out a few things early - stay close for awhile, and/or get out to an early lead. OSU pulls way 2H - I don't see how Texas keeps pace here. Probably a late arriving crowd (6:30p start) - which team can get a strong start will be huge. IF it's OSU, Texas could be in serious trouble.


$$ - I'll probably wait to see if I can get Texas at a juiced 7 - bet it small - play OSU live/2H
 
Wow…another incredible write up. Legendary brotha. Jesus…. Thank you. Thank you. Enjoy the game my friend….oh man getting close to that sad time of bowl withdrawal. It not yet!! Bang em BA
 
bookieassassin said:
haha

The crowd will be interesting.....

I (think) I'm going against you on the crowd - EVERY Texas fan hates OSU fans - because they were abused the last game in Columbus. Many still talk about it.
>> plus many skipped the ASU game (getting expensive) - gearing up for this one

How many OSU fans think Texas has a shot to win? - a ton of flights were delayed - I know several that are gonna miss it (early morning flights delayed till tonite late) < pisser there ..... are some OSU fans 'waiting' for the title game - figuring this one is a gimme?


BIG PICTURE: will Ohio State continue to play like they have been (ie like LSU 2019)? or will the moment be too big for Howard/Day? ......will Texas rise up and play to the level of their opponent yet again?
*one thing is an extreme probability - Texas should not be able to run here - AT ALL - so most likely this will be the Quinn Ewers show

If live betting - can OSU get pressure rushing only FOUR? - if so game over ...... if not, and they have to blitz - Ewers destroys blitzing teams
* problem? - OSU's DL is playing at a historically good level - vs the Ducks they disrupted 90% of rushing attempts - two DE's are ridiculous


GTTH - Horns/Sark figure out a few things early - stay close for awhile, and/or get out to an early lead. OSU pulls way 2H - I don't see how Texas keeps pace here. Probably a late arriving crowd (6:30p start) - which team can get a strong start will be huge. IF it's OSU, Texas could be in serious trouble.


$$ - I'll probably wait to see if I can get Texas at a juiced 7 - bet it small - play OSU live/2H
Click to expand...
Convinced myself if UT doesn’t score TD on its first two possessions, they won’t win. Sark scripts very well. If they can’t move the ball under those circumstances, they don’t have a shot
 
Something tells me Buckeyes Corners are going to get beat and maybe some real dumbly timed PI’s

Longer Horns hang….the more this is looking like the Michigan game
 
Last edited:
over 24 should work I would think - but OSU D is much tougher in 2H
>> 2H D- 4.5 pts/g - 1 passing TD / 6 rushing
3Q D - 1.1 pts/g - 1 rushing TD - ZERO passing TD
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

bookieassassin
WEEK 13
Replies
33
Views
1K
Kapthat
Kapthat
bookieassassin
WEEK 11
Replies
20
Views
1K
Wolfeman
Wolfeman
bookieassassin
WEEK 10
Replies
39
Views
1K
bookieassassin
bookieassassin
bookieassassin
WEEK 15
Replies
17
Views
1K
bookieassassin
bookieassassin
bookieassassin
WEEK 8
Replies
20
Views
1K
bookieassassin
bookieassassin
Back
Top