2024-25 BOWL GUIDE

2H notes

rush O (1Q > 4Q)
*B - 3.8 > 3.0 > 5.0 > 4.8
*L - 5.1 > 6.2 > 5.2 > 5.8

rush D
*B- 4.4 > 3.9 > 3.7 > 4.4
*L - 5.5 > 3.9 > 4.4 > 2.2

scoring O
*B - 6 > 7 > 8 > 7.5
* L - 3 > 10 > 4 > 10

scoring D
* B- 4 > 10 > 7 > 9
* L - 6 > 7 > 5 > 5
 
gonna play the trend and add SMALL

Buffalo -2 3Q

Liberty coaches do nothing at halftime - OR before the game - typically they wake up 4Q
> 3 rushing TD all year 3Q - (10 in 4Q) - also #102 in scoring 3Q (#5 4Q)

Buffs #25 in 3Q scoring - av 5.0/rush - allow 3.7 - only 3 TD allowed on the ground
 
BTW - a (late) full disclosure

Didn't think too much about it - strictly a BIG PICTURE play
>> but a negative with a play on the Irish is that PSU matches up fairly well - so I wouldn't lay too many

Just think ND wins the game - JF gets his ass outcoached ........AGAIN. They should stay close. More later.
 
Man something tells me Texas is what I thought. The best of the Big 12 (barely edging ASU) and not the best of the SEC (as UGA proved). Had a tough going @Ark, @Vandy, @ A&M was closer than the score. Sark doesn’t impress me as a killer…in fact he’s not a fave coach of mine in anyway. I’m struggling to find a way Texas scores more than 17-20 here without help (turnovers, spc teams, flags etc) .

Other side of the ball it’s like buckeyes finally figured out how to use those bad ass WR’s. I love Egbuka. That BS game plan vs Michigan was silly, Ego in the way for Day sticking to the run. Now the offense is wide open and absolutely the best left in my opinion.. They won’t try to pound it on the Horns, if they do they’re right back in a slobber knocker like Michigan. I do like the fact they’re coming into Texas for this as well. I think it builds an underdog mantra that suits Day and Ohio st better than a neutral location even though their favorites -6.

Kinda telling Ohio St -110 for natty vs the Field.

Question on PSU line, do you see this hitting PSU+2.5 or +1.5 as next move? These tight games and “gambling on 4th down “ coaching and analytics..2 pts could be tough to cover. Amazing how 2 pts became the new 3 in NFL & NCAAF a few years back. Tremendous amount of 1-2 pt wins in NFL.

Good lord, I better put the Fortaleza respesado away! My bad for going off Braddah
 
Question on PSU line, do you see this hitting PSU+2.5 or +1.5 as next move? These tight games and “gambling on 4th down “ coaching and analytics..2 pts could be tough to cover. Amazing how 2 pts became the new 3 in NFL & NCAAF a few years back. Tremendous amount of 1-2 pt wins in NFL.

If you like PSU, I think I would wait for 2' or better - an announcement that Abdul Carter (is out) might push it to 3 briefly - or a much cheaper buy up to 3 for sure - and a better ML deal.

ND RB Love will play (per MF) - less than 100% for sure - but I don't see any announcements that could cause the line to drop. Right now it's all negative Irish talk (injuries / short week) - can see late Irish money
 
Question on PSU line, do you see this hitting PSU+2.5 or +1.5 as next move? These tight games and “gambling on 4th down “ coaching and analytics..2 pts could be tough to cover. Amazing how 2 pts became the new 3 in NFL & NCAAF a few years back. Tremendous amount of 1-2 pt wins in NFL.

If you like PSU, I think I would wait for 2' or better - an announcement that Abdul Carter (is out) might push it to 3 briefly - or a much cheaper buy up to 3 for sure - and a better ML deal.

ND RB Love will play (per MF) - less than 100% for sure - but I don't see any announcements that could cause the line to drop. Right now it's all negative Irish talk (injuries / short week) - can see late Irish money
Actually im backing ND. I grabbed a -1.5 for a unit and was looking to add another. GL.

Nice smash and grab on Montana St tonight!
 
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