2024-25 BOWL GUIDE

Damn sure did take an (extra long) nap ha / waiting for some late inspiration ..... here it is 5:00p ffs

Few dart style props - then live/2H stuff only for me anyway

This one is a ROBOT-CAPPERS dream - as on paper the Irish should get their ass kicked
>> RC meaning no mental / situational aspect to the game - players are essentially robots - if a regular season game I would be all over ND here - but in the title games, the favorite almost always wins AND covers - what 'should' happen usually does.


GTTH - it's the Buckeyes or nothing. But as a dog / spot player I look to play the team with the mental EDGE, so no way I'm layin' almost 10 here...... plus I'll be rooting HARD for the Irish to defeat the EVIL that is Ohio State ha


So the handicap breaks down to this : how can ND avoid getting their ass kicked?
>> everybody knows the narratives - a ton of previews out there

1) Irish must stop the run - (without committing another man in the box) - because if they do have to load the box - they'll be forced to play MAN / not zone - perhaps then be unable to bracket OSU WR Smith. BUT if they can stop OSU on early downs - force 3rd/longs - put pressure on Howard to make plays/MISTAKES? ........ Day/ CK's asshole will begin to tighten - thoughts might revert back to MICHIGAN - "here we go again'. Plus Howard is not great when pressured.
>> if not - things can get out of hand fast (Vols/ Ducks) - Irish get behind 14-0 or worse, they're pretty much DONE.
* Irish run D is weak before (#86) , and after (#91) contact
* allow 5/rush with a lite box / OSU averages 6.5/rush vs a lite box

2) They must be extremely creative on O - rest their D / speed up the game
* problem? while they have run very well doing the year - facing better D's in the play-offs they haven't done anything (sans long run vs Indy)
>> so what we have here essentially - is a running team - that can't run, throw, OR protect -vs a D that can stop the run with a lite box, better than anyone has done it in several years - and can get mucho pressure without blitzing. UH-OH.

So what they must do is just ugly the hell out of this one - stay relatively close - LEVERAGE the field in their favor - create turnovers/steal a possession or two - hope for a late miracle finish. The Buckeyes are great bullies / front runners - but will give up late scores - allowed late drives in several games (Michigan, Ducks, Nebraska....)


NOTES

*Irish with nice FP edge (field position) - O #4 / D #11 - OSU #38/#19
* ND kicking team #1 - OSU return team last in nation #134
* FP - % of drives that start 80 yds away - OSO #122 / #123 D
* ND #1 in middle 8 (last 4 of 2Q/1st 4 of 3Q) outscoring opponents 148-17 - 27-0 in play-offs
* ND #1 in TO and points off TO (9.13 pts/g)
* SEC officials - expect a ton of flags, esp. holding
* IMO - the greatest edge for ND - is that their coaches (HC/OC/DC) often create an edge for them - while I'm not sure that OSU coaches don't actually LIMIT them sometimes - will they here? > speaking of CK/RD - DC Knowles is fantastic.


I think this one is probably close for awhile - OSU should pull away late. Like many, I don't see how ND can have any sustained success offensively - leading to their D wearing down and getting pushed around late. I'll look to play OSU live, and /or the OVER if the 1Q/1H is really low scoring. If OSU jumps out early - I hope I don't ha - but might play ND if number gets out of hand.


1H under 23'
Greathouse OVER 22' rec
Egbuka OVER 58' rec
A Williams OVER 23' rec
J Price OVER 24' rush
W Howard over 244' pass / 9' rush
Judkins over 54' rush
RL OVER # of rushes (NA to me)


Sorry for raggedy ass write-up - super busy and old today boys .......BOL
>> plus I hate these Monday games - really looking forward to this one tho



 
Last edited:
bookieassassin said:
Damn sure did take an (extra long) nap ha / waiting for some late inspiration ..... here it is 5:00p ffs

Few dart style props - then live/2H stuff only for me anyway

This one is a ROBOT-CAPPERS dream - as on paper the Irish should get their ass kicked
>> RC meaning no mental / situational aspect to the game - players are essentially robots - if a regular season game I would be all over ND here - but in the title games, the favorite almost always wins AND covers - what 'should' happen usually does.


GTTH - it's the Buckeyes or nothing. But as a dog / spot player I look to play the team with the mental EDGE, so no way I'm layin' almost 10 here...... plus I'll be rooting HARD for the Irish to defeat the EVIL that is Ohio State ha


So the handicap breaks down to this : how can ND avoid getting their ass kicked?
>> everybody knows the narratives - a ton of previews out there

1) Irish must stop the run - (without committing another man in the box) - because if they do have to load the box - they'll be forced to play MAN / not zone - perhaps then be unable to bracket OSU WR Smith. BUT if they can stop OSU on early downs - force 3rd/longs - put pressure on Howard to make plays/MISTAKES? ........ Day/ CK's asshole will begin to tighten - thoughts might revert back to MICHIGAN - "here we go again'. Plus Howard is not great when pressured.
>> if not - things can get out of hand fast (Vols/ Ducks) - Irish get behind 14-0 or worse, they're pretty much DONE.
* Irish run D is weak before (#86) , and after (#91) contact
* allow 5/rush with a lite box / OSU averages 6.5/rush vs a lite box

2) They must be extremely creative on O - rest their D / speed up the game
* problem? while they have run very well doing the year - facing better D's in the play-offs they haven't done anything (sans long run vs Indy)
>> so what we have here essentially - is a running team - that can't run, throw, OR protect -vs a D that can stop the run with a lite box, better than anyone has done it in several years - and can get mucho pressure without blitzing. UH-OH.

So what they must do is just ugly the hell out of this one - stay relatively close - LEVERAGE the field in their favor - create turnovers/steal a possession or two - hope for a late miracle finish. The Buckeyes are great bullies / front runners - but will give up late scores - allowed late drives in several games (Michigan, Ducks, Nebraska....)


NOTES

*Irish with nice FP edge (field position) - O #4 / D #11 - OSU #38/#19
* ND kicking team #1 - OSU return team last in nation #134
* FP - % of drives that start 80 yds away - OSO #122 / #123 D
* ND #1 in middle 8 (last 4 of 2Q/1st 4 of 3Q) outscoring opponents 148-17 - 27-0 in play-offs
* ND #1 in TO and points off TO (9.13 pts/g)
* SEC officials - expect a ton of flags, esp. holding
* IMO - the greatest edge for ND - is that their coaches (HC/OC/DC) often create an edge for them - while I'm not sure that OSU coaches don't actually LIMIT them sometimes - will they here? > speaking of CK/RD - DC Knowles is fantastic.


I think this one is probably close for awhile - OSU should pull away late. Like many, I don't see how ND can have any sustained success offensively - leading to their D wearing down and getting pushed around late. I'll look to play OSU live, and /or the OVER if the 1Q/1H is really low scoring. If OSU jumps out early - I hope I don't ha - but might play ND if number gets out of hand.


1H under 23'
Greathouse OVER 22' rec
Egbuka OVER 58' rec
A Williams OVER 23' rec
J Price OVER 24' rush
W Howard over 244' pass / 9' rush
Judkins over 54' rush
RL OVER # of rushes (NA to me)


Sorry for raggedy ass write-up - super busy and old today boys .......BOL
>> plus I hate these Monday games - really looking forward to this one tho



Click to expand...
is it time to play OSU live yet? LOL
 
BA this is a great breakdown. Thanks for all you do. Been following for years. Where do you find these stats?

* Irish run D is weak before (#86) , and after (#91) contact
* allow 5/rush with a lite box / OSU averages 6.5/rush vs a lite box

2) They must be extremely creative on O - rest their D / speed up the game
* problem? while they have run very well doing the year - facing better D's in the play-offs they haven't done anything (sans long run vs Indy)
>> so what we have here essentially - is a running team - that can't run, throw, OR protect -vs a D that can stop the run with a lite box, better than anyone has done it in several years - and can get mucho pressure without blitzing. UH-OH.

*Irish with nice FP edge (field position) - O #4 / D #11 - OSU #38/#19
* ND kicking team #1 - OSU return team last in nation #134
* FP - % of drives that start 80 yds away - OSO #122 / #123 D
* ND #1 in middle 8 (last 4 of 2Q/1st 4 of 3Q) outscoring opponents 148-17 - 27-0 in play-offs
* ND #1 in TO and points off TO (9.13 pts/g)

Thanks!
 
Where do you find these stats?

Mostly newsletters or podcasts that pay for advanced stats - Action Network/BBOC , Brad Powers, Bet The Board, etc.....
>> free stuff bcftoys

Good man thanks!
 
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