2024-25 BOWL GUIDE

mykzaub=n said:
BA, your card feels much lighter this bowl szn vs years past, any reason beyond the portal/opt-out uncertainty or just not a ton of edges this year for some reason?
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Wasn't lying man - waiting until 1-2 days before kickoff to decide - last minute BS is brutal. Line (shouldn't) matter much anyway. A few I regret no doubt.
Navy - CUSE - Baylor .....but as we see with Florida - lines come back around ..... dumb money in volume moves lines in bowls (especially now)
>> plus very few stand out this year - when few teams have any clear IDENTITY, you don't know how they're gonna play.
 
bookieassassin said:
Yep I was ready to bet Tulane small at 14 or more for sure - which was dumb probably because I don't think they can win outright
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Can't believe it got all the way under 10. I remember thinking about this one: "Florida under 10, Tulane over 14", without any thought that one of them might actually happen.
 
BIG GAMES

I prefer to just watch the big games anyway - seldom any line mistakes / game can often either way. Totals / props are the way to go - but I'm a dumb math guy so .....

I would think that SMU, Tennessee, and Indy stay in it awhile - home team pulls away late. I like Texas to win and cover (maybe) that's about it - might play the Horns live/2H. But with the way Ewers is playing, does Clemson have the best QB? - a ridiculous statement earlier. Clemson shouldn't move the ball - at all.
 
BA! I smacked that Gators call of yours…thank you!! I have 3 on my radar I wanna run by you once the playoff madness has taken a break.
BC
SJSU
A&M

Gator chomp! Man that was a fun one… vols first half and game total under today, yep. Thinking about a fade on Clemson’s TT, and a Ewers throws an INT prop for a tamali bet.

grabbed SMU +3 (-120) for a first quarter sweat….i think these dudes crumble second half under the intensity. I keep picturing Jennings running for his life, and chucking up throws. Seems like SMU O Line better be full of turkey and stuffing to get some size…that PSU DL will hunt.

Have a fantastic day and holidays brotha…that Gators write up was A++ Top Shelf.
-wolfeman
 
Penn St -9

at BM

way too low - should close 13 ish - no deep dive yet, but I like this one - was expecting 12/13 .., NL a great road team
 
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gonna add SJSU smaller

>> waiting on ML/1 ?


Line is dropping due to rumor that USF QB Brown MIGHT play ..... he's been ready / suited up / working out for about a MONTH, but hasn't played since week 5 or so. The only thing that makes sense is that he didn't want to risk further injury - so WHY would he play now? If he wanted to leave he would be in the portal.

I like that SJSU played IN THIS SAME BOWL LAST YEAR - lost by 10 as a big favorite. USF had a huge win - 45-0 over the Cuse. So regression, OR is USF HC a fantastic bowl coach? Note travel no big deal - USF has been in Hawaii for almost a week.

It was at Navy (SA tough in bowls) - but SJSU HC 6-4 su/7-3 in bowls / covered last 6.

I would think the 1H might be lower scoring - I'll look for a live/2H play on the over, and MAYBE USF if QB plays - might take SJSU awhile to adapt to the loss of WR Nash, arguably nation's best WR. Both play really fast (USF #1)
 
bookieassassin said:
gonna add SJSU smaller

>> waiting on ML/1 ?


Line is dropping due to rumor that USF QB Brown MIGHT play ..... he's been ready / suited up / working out for about a MONTH, but hasn't played since week 5 or so. The only thing that makes sense is that he didn't want to risk further injury - so WHY would he play now? If he wanted to leave he would be in the portal.

I like that SJSU played IN THIS SAME BOWL LAST YEAR - lost by 10 as a big favorite. USF had a huge win - 45-0 over the Cuse. So regression, OR is USF HC a fantastic bowl coach? Note travel no big deal - USF has been in Hawaii for almost a week.

It was at Navy (SA tough in bowls) - but SJSU HC 6-4 su/7-3 in bowls / covered last 6.

I would think the 1H might be lower scoring - I'll look for a live/2H play on the over, and MAYBE USF if QB plays - might take SJSU awhile to adapt to the loss of WR Nash, arguably nation's best WR. Both play really fast (USF #1)
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Twas my plan to find a discount over.

Prob tail small on sjsu

Merry Christmas b.a...

One of the true gentleman of CFB gamblers !
 
B.A.R. said:
Twas my plan to find a discount over.

Prob tail small on sjsu

Merry Christmas b.a...

One of the true gentleman of CFB gamblers !
Click to expand...

Merry Christmas man all the best !


another thought on USF QB Brown ......

He might plan on leaving - how could he not think about it - with news that Tulane QB Mensah got 8 MILLION from Duke !?
>> maybe his offers were limited due to his injury - he plays here to show teams what he can do.....
 
Wolfeman said:
BA! I smacked that Gators call of yours…thank you!! I have 3 on my radar I wanna run by you once the playoff madness has taken a break.
BC
SJSU
A&M

Gator chomp! Man that was a fun one… vols first half and game total under today, yep. Thinking about a fade on Clemson’s TT, and a Ewers throws an INT prop for a tamali bet.

grabbed SMU +3 (-120) for a first quarter sweat….i think these dudes crumble second half under the intensity. I keep picturing Jennings running for his life, and chucking up throws. Seems like SMU O Line better be full of turkey and stuffing to get some size…that PSU DL will hunt.

Have a fantastic day and holidays brotha…that Gators write up was A++ Top Shelf.
-wolfeman
Click to expand...

probably will be on those 3 - waiting till 1-2 days before to get a better feel - these last minute opt outs/opt back in are ridiculous.....

$ Will add SJSU close to KO - sounds like USF QB could play - how sharp could he be tho?
 
bookieassassin said:
Merry Christmas man all the best !


another thought on USF QB Brown ......

He might plan on leaving - how could he not think about it - with news that Tulane QB Mensah got 8 MILLION from Duke !?
>> maybe his offers were limited due to his injury - he plays here to show teams what he can do.....
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Great, great point.

He didn't have the chance to show off.

That makes much more sense.
 
Not much tomorrow.....

Rutgers +7 smaller
Toledo +7 small

Game is meaningless for KSU - huge for Rutgers ..... note Rutgers fine RB is out - most everybody else will play - great spot for Rutgers / Schiano (6-1-1 bowls) - slightly different in bowls, but as a dog - vs teams not in the B10 - Rutgers has covered 19/23

Both flaky as hell, and bad bowl teams - but Toledo usually stays close (or wins) in this spot - note this is their first vs P5 in bowls -KEY here will be if Pitt QB Holstein plays

$ busy tomorrow - posting now, will actually wait for a 7' or more for Rutgers - news that RB is out should cause late $ for KSU


BG/ASU - if BG was all in ASU would get killed, and they still might (nation's worst D?) - great TE Fannin SUPPOSEDLY will play, but they have key guys out - neither HC has won a bowl game - ASU should have been MUCH better than they were this year - QB/RB/WR not bad - ASU would be my lean, but I'm probably wrong, especially with favorites trending
 
Wolfeman said:
wazuuu looking to the local YMCA for coaching…good lord they depleted.
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I'll probably just play an alternate line or 2 small for the hell of it....and/or Cuse 1H?
eg. 20' / -23'

It's dumb - because the idea is to pick winners here - but I can't make myself lay the 17 after passing on THREE or so .....😬

Seems like if Wazzu competes here (turnovers?) it stays within a few possessions anyway - if not they get annihilated right?
 
bookieassassin said:
Not much tomorrow.....

Rutgers +7 smaller
Toledo +7 small

Game is meaningless for KSU - huge for Rutgers ..... note Rutgers fine RB is out - most everybody else will play - great spot for Rutgers / Schiano (6-1-1 bowls) - slightly different in bowls, but as a dog - vs teams not in the B10 - Rutgers has covered 19/23

Both flaky as hell, and bad bowl teams - but Toledo usually stays close (or wins) in this spot - note this is their first vs P5 in bowls -KEY here will be if Pitt QB Holstein plays

$ busy tomorrow - posting now, will actually wait for a 7' or more for Rutgers - news that RB is out should cause late $ for KSU


BG/ASU - if BG was all in ASU would get killed, and they still might (nation's worst D?) - great TE Fannin SUPPOSEDLY will play, but they have key guys out - neither HC has won a bowl game - ASU should have been MUCH better than they were this year - QB/RB/WR not bad - ASU would be my lean, but I'm probably wrong, especially with favorites trending
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1872291953678954858
Holstein sitting
 
edit: it probably doesn't make a ton of difference (with this guy) - but Vandy QB Pavia can return in 2025
>> I LOVE betting on dominant players playing in their LAST college game - doesn't change the play here really, just like it slightly less
 
BG - it looks like - that RB Stewart is playing ??????????? - he's already signed with the Hokies - so this makes no sense whatsoever, but might happen
 
Toledo absolutely selling this game. Their HC needs to be investigated for fixing, how can you continuously punt from plus territory, especially trailing by two scores with 11 min left.
 
Friday

I'll be on A&M as a one unit play - no reason to play the 4 - I would expect some USC money?..... looking for a juiced 3 - if it goes up I'll probably it smaller
>> full strength USC might could just outscore the Aggies - but with all st WR's / top 2 RB's / st C and RT out? - IMO this one huge for Aggs, not so much for USC - who seem to be going nowhere really. Much has been made of Aggie DL guys out, but backups are higher rated pass rushers anyway (PFF). Aggie OL/DL should control this game.

Adding OU/Navy over 42' (BO/LV -113 )
>> this looks like a regular season / full strength total .....will OU D (missing best players) show up super focused/intense and just shut Navy down for 4Q?
OU offense stinks - but these guys are playing for a position in 2025 - OC is lame duck - so should pull out all the stops here/play fast - note OU O faced the #1 SOS of opposing D's - Navy D not bad (#67 SP+) but faced the #97 SOS of opposing O's. Weather should be great in FWorth - 60-65/clear / 5-10 winds. I like Navy here, but 2'/3 is too low - I might play the ML small, and/or wait for a live/2H play on Navy. Note SA have won 15 of last 18 bowls straight up.

TT/Ark - stay FAR AWAY - both decimated, especially the Hogs - live/2H only

Cuse/Wazzu - Cuse or nothing - consider an alternate line maybe (20' - 23')

Vandy /GT - on Vandy and ML
 
question here - (gotta get better at this)

WHEN do I play Navy?

After OU makes a stop
After OU's next possession, (esp. if they score)
If OU scores (14-0) - hit it then, or get greedy and wait?

Math skills be damned - guess it's all feel
>> maybe have a plan BEFORE > "Navy should win outright" - Navy will not lose by more than one possession"

If OU continues to move the ball - I'll wait and see if they score. IF NOT - I'll probably play Navy small at least.

I usually wait as long as the game trends continue - because often things don't reverse until after halftime........


EDIT: playing Navy extra small at a juiced 14 - gonna wait ONE more Navy possession to see what happens
 
bookieassassin said:
question here - (gotta get better at this)

WHEN do I play Navy?

After OU makes a stop
After OU's next possession, (esp. if they score)
If OU scores (14-0) - hit it then, or get greedy and wait?

Math skills be damned - guess it's all feel
>> maybe have a plan BEFORE > "Navy should win outright" - Navy will not lose by more than one possession"

If OU continues to move the ball - I'll wait and see if they score. IF NOT - I'll probably play Navy small at least.

I usually wait as long as the game trends continue - because often things don't reverse until after halftime........


EDIT: playing Navy extra small at a juiced 14 - gonna wait ONE more Navy possession to see what happens
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I don't think I want any part of Navy, just way too much square money on them even with the 4-5 points of movement. I think your call on the over was spot on and a lot of weird/flukey stuff has happened in this 1H despite OU moving the ball well and I would assume Navy starts to click on offense more in the 2H, I'm thinking about lining up a bigger position on 2H Total Over (depending on what number we can get), what do you think?
 
mykzaub=n said:
I don't think I want any part of Navy, just way too much square money on them even with the 4-5 points of movement. I think your call on the over was spot on and a lot of weird/flukey stuff has happened in this 1H despite OU moving the ball well and I would assume Navy starts to click on offense more in the 2H, I'm thinking about lining up a bigger position on 2H Total Over (depending on what number we can get), what do you think?
Click to expand...

2H over should work - Navy will fight like hell - OU shouldn't play conservative - sit on any lead
 
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