Generally, I think Augusta requires a good bit of course experience before winning. Below are last 10 winners, number of appearances inclusive of winning year, and top 10s prior to winning.
2021: Hideki, 10th appearance with two top 10s prior to win
2020: DJ, 10th appearance with four top 10s prior to win (this version was played in November)
2019: Tiger, 22nd appearance for his 5th green jacket plus another 9 tops 10s
2018: Reed, 5th appearance with zero prior top 10s
2017: Sergio, 19th appearance with three prior top 10s
2016: Willett, 2nd appearance with zero prior top 10s
2015: Spieth, 2nd appearance with one prior top 10s
2014: Bubba, 6th appearance with one prior win
2013: AScott, 12th appearance with 3 prior top 10s
2012: Bubba, 4th appearance with zero prior top 10s
My Picks
Rahmbo certainly sticks out having four straight top 10s at Augusta (2018 - 4, 2019 - T9, 2020 - T7, 2021 - T5). This will be his sixth appearance. Would imagine losing the number 1 ranking will serve as extra motivation. Expensive at 11 to 1 but couldn't say no.
DJ will make his 12th appearance. Seems to have turned it on recently with a lights out 63 Sunday at Sawgrass followed by a quality outing in Austin. Maybe he is finding his form? Glad to have him on the ticket at 16 to 1.
Xander has a pretty good case too. This will be trip number five to Augusta where he has a T2 in 2019 and T3 last year after a triple on 16 in the final round. Locked too early at 14 to 1 - seeing him at 25 to 1 which I think is exceptional value.
Koepka will make his sixth appearance and is in much better health than last year when he couldn't bend a knee so I forgive the MC. T2 in 2019 with a T7 in 2020, says he's healthy. Purchased at 16 to 1, seeing 18 to 1.
Scheffler makes his third Master's appearance with top 20s in 2020 and 2021. On fire right now winning three of last five events. Locked in after API at 25 to 1, seeing mid teens.
Zalatoris' debut last year resulted in a solo second finish last year just one shot off Hideki. Putting this year seems to have improved as evidenced recently in the Match Play. In at 28 to 1, but seeing 33 to 1.
Rory is 32 years old yet making his 14th appearance. Helluva run from 2014 to 2018 where he was inside top 10 every tourney, obviously 2011 was a historic collapse. Not sure why I took this bet considering I don't like Rory and I don't trust his putting. Locked in at 16 to 1.
Cam Smith will make his sixth start, brings three previous top 10s. A top performer in SG ARG and SG APP - both stats important at Augusta. Secured at 16 to 1.
Oosthuizen will be making his 14th appearance yet shockingly only has one top 10 which was the solo second when he lost to Bubba in the 2012 playoff. Think he's good value when I found him at 60 to 1, now down to 40s-50s.
Webb making his 11th appearance and said at Valspar he is healthy. His last three Augusta appearances: (2021 - T12, 2020 - T10, 2019 - T5). Took him at 100 to 1 but now seeing him at 150 to 1 which is a tremendous price for a quality flyer.
AScott makes his 21st appearance - more of a nostalgia pick for me as I was on him in 2012. Playing decently at the moment. Got him at 70 to 1.