2022 Masters Discussions

[KJ]

Man, groups 28-31 on Thursday are just excellent to finish off the day.

I don't remember so many groups that I'm extremely interested in

Tons of interest in a lot of them

 

[gps_3]

Tigers 1st round is 74,5 juiced to the under...

Thoughts?

Tiger has never lit it up in the first round. Think he's only broken 70 once or twice. I think it's a pretty good number, though a little ridiculous since he hasn't played a competitive round since the November Masters in 2020 (incidentally he shot 68 on Thursday). If they get the rain in Augusta that we got in Alabama yesterday, the course will be soft so I expect scores to be pretty low unless the wind really blows. Gun to head I'm taking under. Maybe it's just the fanboy in me, but I can't believe that Tiger is doing all this to go out and shoot 77-74 and be back in Jupiter by dinner Friday night. I don't think he wins, but I think he stays relevant all weekend

 

[gps_3]

I've pretty much talked myself into about 8 guys winning it. Here's what I got so far. Don't think I'll add unless I read something compelling here, or I fade Rory in 1st round

To win:

JT +1000
DJ +1600
Cam Smith +1400

Top 5:

JT +250
Cam Smith +275
DJ +275
Oosthuizen +600

Top 10:

Matty Fitz +300
Shane Lowry +250
Oosthuizen +250
Conners +350
DJ +130
JT +110

Top 20:

Xander -120
Oosthuizen +130
Fitzpatrick +130
Lowry +130

Matchups:

Adam Scott +105 vs Finau
Fitzpatrick -135 vs Hatton

 

[B.A.R.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1511143361440329728

 

[gps_3]

If you really want to nerd out with shots gained stuff:

Viz Blog | Peaking for Augusta

Periodic posts highlighting Data Golf findings through data visualization

datagolf.com

 

[KJ]

If there was a camera on Harry Higgs all day tomorrow I would only watch that

 

[gps_3]

Added Tiger to make cut -115

 

[KJ]

Added Tiger to make cut -115

He might not make it but zero chance he goes through this if he thinks he won't

 

[chipnotized]

 

[chipnotized]

Things were a bit nasty yesterday, and the sub-air system is going to get an early workout, but things are looking up for Thursday through Sunday.

There is a pretty high likelihood of some more rain today, possibly causing issues for this afternoon’s par 3 contest. Most of the storms should be clear of the area by tonight with just small chance of a stray shower or two tomorrow.

The biggest story will be similar to the past few weeks: Friday afternoon winds; maybe even stronger than we saw in San Antonio. With the forecast calling for “20 to 30 mph winds, and higher gusts possible”, there is an pretty strong case to be made for a wave advantage for those heading out in the afternoon in round one as well as a nice opportunity to play around with some morning stacks in showdown DFS on Friday.

 

[King Slap]

Had no idea @Teapot9 caddied for the Walrus in 1982

View attachment 63920

"Augusta caddies used to rule the grounds at the Masters. Then the rain came in 1982" — Geoff Shackelford

The Augusta Chronicle’s Doug Stutsman filed a sensational read on how the tradition of club caddies ended in the early 1980s, with fantastic anecdotes from several former champions, caddies and contenders . The Hord Hardin Society migth not be so thrilled but Clifford Roberts comes off well. C

www.geoffshackelford.com

 

[KJ]

Generally I'm not as PC as most of you think I am but Phil sitting this one out isn't a PC thing, not sure if he rebounds from this. He's a delicate flower.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1511725854321221642

 

[Dsn150]

Reed 100/1 to win
Reed +205 finish top 20

 

[Ryno14]

Masters Round 1 3 Ball Bets for yours truly:

Higgo +125 > Migliozzi/Couples
Si Woo -120 > ZJ/Jarvis
Cam Smith +120 > Bryson/Casey
JT -135 > Deki/Piot
Bobby Mac -115 > Schwartzel/Shepherd

Will be at Cubs opening day tomorrow assuming weather agrees. Enjoy the day/weekend everyone!

 

[guaranteeed]

Ended up playing tiger to make cut

Then various plays around

Brooks
Cam
Niemann
Henley
Connors
Homa

 

[laopadak]

Looking to add daily matchups but so far, 1 unit each.

K Na- top 40, -125
DJ +1600
Brooksie +1800
C Smith +1400

Add- 2 units each

S Cink -125 over Z Johnson
Niemann +100 over Louis Winthorpe III
J Rose -115 over Woodland

GL gentlemen. Should be a great tourney

 

[chipnotized]

Good luck folks, perhaps Tiger can school these whippersnappers.

Tiger to make the cut +120

Hole in One -- Yes -150

Cam Young Top 20 +320
Harman Top 20 +240

Tourney Group DJ +400 over Rahm/JT/Scheffler/Smith

FRL Macintyre 70-1

Winning Score Under 276.5 -105 (2.10u)

 

[HUNT]

Dj live +1000
1/10

 

[HUNT]

Brooks live +1600
1/16

 

[KJ]

Brooks live +1600
1/16

Brooks
Freakin
Koepka

 

[chipnotized]

Round 2 3-balls

Conners +130 over Henley & Westwood

Gooch +175 over Kokrak & Willett

 

[laopadak]

1-2 yesterday, dropping 2 units. Day 2, 2 units each.

Willie Zed -115 over Speith
Leishman -120 over Garcia

Opening days for MLB so parlaying above with Rays and Doyers ML, +684 for 1.2 units

Still open- Let’s go Mullet & Paulina!

K Na- top 40, -125
DJ +1600
Brooksie +1800
C Smith +1400

 

[jimmymo]

Fairly sizeable play on Tony Finau -155 and -125 (-1/2) over Tiger.......thinking Tiger struggles in the wind

 

[bones]

Took Jordan @ +112 vs Xander. Going with experience @ + money

 

[bones]

Don't sleep on Dustin.

A reporter yesterday phrased a question to Dustin with this approximate predicate: "The last tournament you won was the November Masters....."

Kinda sad to hear it referred to differently. Maybe I'm wrong, but it would be tiresome/bad to have what amounts to an "asterisk" on my victory when it is mentioned

 

[B.A.R.]

Don't sleep on Dustin.

A reporter yesterday phrased a question to Dustin with this approximate predicate: "The last tournament you won was the November Masters....."

Kinda sad to hear it referred to differently. Maybe I'm wrong, but it would be tiresome/bad to have what amounts to an "asterisk" on my victory when it is mentioned

Dustin the clear favorite entering play today with this draw.

 

[B.A.R.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1512400111837626375

 

[bones]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1512400111837626375

Take out a 7 iron on 12 and hit it to back bunker

 

[KJ]

Take out a 7 iron on 12 and hit it to back bunker

DJ cut a 7 iron in just past pin high yesterday

Never thought the day would exist that he'd hit a 7 on a 155yd hole

Also, that November Masters does have to eat at him. I don't remember it, probably because last year came up so quickly after it

 

[KJ]

T-minus about an hour before the wind picks up, taking every player that's offered to hit the green on 12 until then

 

[bones]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1512611272906481664

 

[laopadak]

1–2 yesterday, -3.2. Total for the tourney -5.2 units. 2 plays for moving day-

Woods -105 over Kisner. 3 units
Schwartzel + 220 over Scheffler. 1 unit

It’ll be tough for anyone to catch world #1, I just think Schwartzel can be competitive and close that gap by a stroke.

Got some work to do in MLB to pay for my sorry ass Masters bets. GL today gents-

 

[chipnotized]

Moving Day blurb from Ron Klos:

Here is what the leaderboard would look like heading into the third round if every player had putted to their average baseline. This matters because while putting is very volatile on a one-round basis, it does tend to rebound or regress back towards the mean. This leaderboard can highlight players that hold value if their putting splits normalize over the weekend. Cameron Smith and Tyrrell Hatton are examples of players who have been on fire with their ball-striking but well below their average on the greens.

Cameron Smith -4.72
Scottie Scheffler -4.46
Tyrrell Hatton -4.42
Hideki Matsuyama -2.83
Dustin Johnson -2.62
Corey Conners -2.19
Matt Fitzpatrick -1.79
Rory McIlroy -1.60
Patrick Cantlay -1.57
Harry Higgs -1.20

 

[chipnotized]

Round 3 Betting Matchups​

*Strokes Gained Rating (SG RTG) is the key metric that combines all the weighted categories in the model.

 

[chipnotized]

 

[chipnotized]

 

[chipnotized]

 

[bones]

Lee Westwood +132 over Robert Macintyre Round #3

P Reed +115 over Russell Henley Round #3