2022-23 BOWL GUIDE

bookieassassin said:
You were right - this line movement is silly ....

FULL STRENGTH this line might be P / maybe bounce back and forth 1' either way - motivated Ponies maybe close -1' or so
>> 5' or more is saying Rice and TM play - BYU QB and more are definitely out. Note SP+ does have SMU -6 or so (full strength)
Click to expand...
Line down to 3.5 lol.
 
sorry RT - maybe a lean on BG .... that one likely like many this year - live / 2H only for me


leans / waiting - in order kinda sorta

IRISH at 2 - large ?
Oreg St at a reasonable f'in #
Fla St
Ole Miss
UTSA
Tulane TT over
Mich / Frogs 1H under
TCU
SMiss
E Caro < 6
Miss St 1H or 2H ?
BAMA
Fla ???
Cuse?
S Ala at ,< 3
Ohio St ?? 2H maybe

added a bit to BYU at 5' - TM plays and BYU gets killed, I might have to disappear for awhile....haha
 
Follow or fade the steam?

Updated from VSIN

These huge movements are rare historically....

Last 30 years - only 49X has the line moved 4' points from the opener - those teams are 31-17-1 ATS (line moved their favor) - happened 11X last year !

Last 5 yrs a 2 pt move or more - 58%

2021 only - 3 pt or more - 17-5 ATS
 
bookieassassin said:
sorry RT - maybe a lean on BG .... that one likely like many this year - live / 2H only for me


leans / waiting - in order kinda sorta

IRISH at 2 - large ?
Oreg St at a reasonable f'in #
Fla St
Ole Miss
UTSA
Tulane TT over
Mich / Frogs 1H under
TCU
SMiss
E Caro < 6
Miss St 1H or 2H ?
BAMA
Fla ???
Cuse?
S Ala at ,< 3
Ohio St ?? 2H maybe

added a bit to BYU at 5' - TM plays and BYU gets killed, I might have to disappear for awhile....haha
Click to expand...
Troy getting lot of love, but UTSA has never won a bowl and Harris is the best player on the field.. running with the beep beeps too... on Southern Miss- not sure how Rice scores with their 4th string QB... South Bama D should still shut down WKU- but damn wish QB didnt come back...
 
satnightfever05 said:
Troy getting lot of love, but UTSA has never won a bowl and Harris is the best player on the field.. running with the beep beeps too... on Southern Miss- not sure how Rice scores with their 4th string QB... South Bama D should still shut down WKU- but damn wish QB didnt come back...
Click to expand...


I think UTSA - once again, will be the team that 'refuses to lose'. UTSA makes a few more stops than Troy.

$. Troy has been hurt by running QBs. - much worse vs the run
 
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bookieassassin said:
smaller juiced

S Miss -5'

Rice leads the world in fumbles - SMiss should create serious havoc issues for the fiesty night birds. Might bump up - don't trust SMiss O .
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Would feel at ease with the Eagles if Lowe is announced as the QB.

Believe Wilcke has the lowest passer rating in all of college football.
 
Lowe is starting - Gore is all in, even talking about the SPREAD "we see ourselves as the underdog, even tho we're favored" ..... Rice has beaten this Sr class the last 2 times - including an embarrassing L at home. I think I'll wait for a live/ 2H play to add - Rice usually starts fast - fades even faster.....

Yesterday was the first *local* mention of Tanner Mordecai. The rat basterd announces he's turning pro - then disappears, and is not mentioned by coaches or players ffs . Now his best receivers are out - Ponies lead the nation in 'yards lost to DROPS' - BYU will likely get after him here (can't cover) - he literally can only hurt his draft standing here. DUMB move - (huge respect tho not leaving his team you bet).

HC Lashlee said "bowl prep has been tough - results don't matter - important thing is just getting to a bowl- too busy with recruiting....." they've been super active in transfers

Btw - not a bad idea to put $50 on a prepaid card - create nuther email - sign up for trials/ temp. subscription to get behind those nasty pay walls when necessary.

works on some - not as much anymore
12ft.io

12ft – Hop any paywall

Show me a 10ft paywall, I’ll show you a 12ft ladder.
12ft.io 12ft.io
 
adding extra small at MB

Liberty +3 1H

Flames QUIT when they saw / felt that Freeze was QUITTING on his team. Their D should cause problems - led the nation in TFL.

IF they are there to play - it will be obvious from the start - Toledo / Finn could come back 2H ?
 
Any other team totals on your radar BA? Seems reasonable USC won't really care about this game, but Tulane surely will...30.5 is very doable....especially if the USC offense isn't near 100% functional (which they won't be for sure with Dye and Addison out)
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Any other team totals on your radar BA? Seems reasonable USC won't really care about this game, but Tulane surely will...30.5 is very doable....especially if the USC offense isn't near 100% functional (which they won't be for sure with Dye and Addison out)
Click to expand...

USC can't tackle - and also should have little interest in that pursuit here ha....

TCU / Michigan 1H under I'll be on - both start slow - IMO TCU D gives Michigan problems - for awhile anyway...... few more later - trying to figure out these bitch of a sides man
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Any other team totals on your radar BA? Seems reasonable USC won't really care about this game, but Tulane surely will...30.5 is very doable....especially if the USC offense isn't near 100% functional (which they won't be for sure with Dye and Addison out)
[/QUOTE

btw - gonna wait on Wave over....

Short line says Vegas thinks CW won't play - or will be limited,- total will drop like a rock if he's out
Click to expand...
 
bookieassassin said:
sorry RT - maybe a lean on BG .... that one likely like many this year - live / 2H only for me


leans / waiting - in order kinda sorta

IRISH at 2 - large ?
Oreg St at a reasonable f'in #
Fla St
Ole Miss
UTSA
Tulane TT over
Mich / Frogs 1H under
TCU
SMiss
E Caro < 6
Miss St 1H or 2H ?
BAMA
Fla ???
Cuse?
S Ala at ,< 3
Ohio St ?? 2H maybe

added a bit to BYU at 5' - TM plays and BYU gets killed, I might have to disappear for awhile....haha
Click to expand...
I might’ve missed your Irish thoughts….QB is gone. Who is starting?

Feels like SC has good momentum and will care…
 
bookieassassin said:
thanks man you too ......... :cheers3:


not gonna answer that Irish question - gonna wait for it to drop anyway - EVERYBODY just loves that STILL celebrating SC team, with their cool HC and 'Heisman' QB !!!!!!
>> SNF ? - Wolfe ?
Click to expand...
I’m probably leaning cocks or nothing. That said- Freeman will try and win this game. Needs good momentum going into the offseason.
 
splits for UTSA / TROY

rushing O
* 1Q > 4Q
UTSA - 4.1 - 5.0 - 5.4 - 3.8
Troy- 3.2 - 3.1 - 3.8 - 3.7

rush D
UTSA - 3.9 - 4.8 - 4.1 - 4.6
Troy - 3.3 - 4.2 - 3.4 - 2.0

pass O (td/int)
UTSA- 4/1 - 10/1 - 7/2 /8/3
Troy - 1/4 - 3/4 - 7/4 - 8/1

pass D
UTSA - 4/0 - 4/6 - 3/3 - 8/4
Troy - 2/2 - 3/3 - 4/2 - 4/4

Scoring

UTSA O - steady, best 2/3Q
D - great 1/3Q - terrible 4Q (#112)

Troy O - BAD 1-3Q, great 4Q (#9 - 9.8)
D - great 1/4 Q (#2 / #2) - solid 2/3Q (#58/#50)
 
bookieassassin said:
thanks man you too ......... :cheers3:


not gonna answer that Irish question - gonna wait for it to drop anyway - EVERYBODY just loves that STILL celebrating SC team, with their cool HC and 'Heisman' QB !!!!!!
>> SNF ? - Wolfe ?
Click to expand...
Hahaha good old Rattler…Notre Dame has burned me 3 times this season both as chalk and a dog.. vs Ohio St, Clemson (wtf!!), and USC. Hell maybe even a Live Wager vs Tree. Anyhow, my lean would be to the Irish. Give me the better Defense, Run Game and that major 3rd Down% advantage. S. Carolina is HIGHLY overvalued with those B2B wins vs Tennessee & Clempsum, not sure they’ve ever run this high. I think the Cocks should be valued closer to the showing vs Gators 38-6 pummeling and the big loss at home to Mizzou….rather than the two previous weeks emotional and impressive wins.

GL
 
BA - Am I buzzing on the GA Southern Kool Aid? Buffalo does nothing for me, and well, the Eagles can air it out with Vantrease and flat score pts. I caught it at -3 and see no reason not to add a chip here at -3.5. Mobile, Al will feel far away from upstate NY….Between you, me, and the fence post….where do you lean?

Have a Kick Ass Saturday…Fresno & BYU Hammers = Pappy 23
 
Wolfeman said:
BA - Am I buzzing on the GA Southern Kool Aid? Buffalo does nothing for me, and well, the Eagles can air it out with Vantrease and flat score pts. I caught it at -3 and see no reason not to add a chip here at -3.5. Mobile, Al will feel far away from upstate NY….Between you, me, and the fence post….where do you lean?

Have a Kick Ass Saturday…Fresno & BYU Hammers = Pappy 23
Click to expand...
SIR!! TREMENDO
 
Wolfeman said:
BA - Am I buzzing on the GA Southern Kool Aid? Buffalo does nothing for me, and well, the Eagles can air it out with Vantrease and flat score pts. I caught it at -3 and see no reason not to add a chip here at -3.5. Mobile, Al will feel far away from upstate NY….Between you, me, and the fence post….where do you lean?

Have a Kick Ass Saturday…Fresno & BYU Hammers = Pappy 23
Click to expand...

It's one of my top plays at 4 - Buffalo should get killed - line movement is wrong IMO

Live - in-game stuff

We've got several that will likely win SU -

Oregon State. > Boise > SMiss > Fresno > BYU?

I'll play Oregon State if down at any time ( love them here but just ain't laying 10 ffs)

Same with Boise, to a lesser degree - game is 30 minutes from NTX - might go myself

Rice is decent 1H - D falls apart 2H - SMiss should 'win' the 2H for sure ?

Fresno / JH WILL come back - if down - large play ...they might start slow

BYU of course depends on who shows up - bad spot for Ponies (HC stated last week "game doesn't matter") - BYU NEEDS THIS W
>>that rat basterd Tanner Mordecai should play it appears - if Hall plays and other key guys play we should be fine, but if not SMU might be a live play. Typically Ponies start fast - fade big time late, so if Hall plays BYU should come back ....

Punching myself in the face for not playing UL / Cinn 1H under - waited for 21 ....
 
Like ALL of BYU's key players are sitting out - the 2 WR's are huge

I might buy SMU at some point - gonna wait and see if BYU scores here

** gonna hedge my BYU play a bit

SMU P / juiced smaller
 
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smaller play

TCU / Michigan 1H UNDER 30

BOTH slow starters - I think Frog DC Gillespie creates issues for Michigan O ..... for awhile anyway
 
BOISE / NTX splits

Boise O - running game MUCH better 2h (4.4 > 5.2)
passing slightly better
Boise D - run D weakens a bit
pass D tightens up a TON (allow 64% 1Q >> 39% 4Q !)
* 2H 47% / 6TD-9 INT

NTX O - running MUCH weaker (5.7 > 4.9) - can't run at all 3Q
passing weaker as well
NTX D - run D weaker slightly
pass D same

SCORING

Boise O - #83 1H / #17 2H
D - #25 / #14

NTX O - #17 1H/ #62 2H
D- #107 / #89
 
backing off Boise 2H - line is 7ish...

might play live if NTX scores again 3Q - looking back, they played a really easy schedule - they look overrated to me here
>> Lean Green *does* fade on the road 2H - last 4 competitive games away outscored 49-111 2H
 
bookieassassin said:
'handicapping' was fine - actual winning money not so much ha - BYU -1' / hedged with smaller SMU P ............... :shocked:
>> did add to BYU at +5 small

Better not pass on EMU man ......:moneyeyes:
Click to expand...
TREMENDO!!!! again!!! B.A. , the absolute BEST, that you always hzve been, a true #1..... thank you SIR!!
 
Loved these games tho .....

It's obvious in most every one - which team really doesn't want to LOSE - they both care, but one simply wants it MORE
>> the challenge for us is to figure that out before the game begins ha

I mean the team / QB, that BYU ran out there was a joke - Ponies had little interest until late in the 4th really, then said screw this OT let's go home.

NTX was really a great play at 10+ - game was huge, a program changer for them (well liked Bennett's last game as coach too). Boise? - not really - win/lose - they're fine. Shoulda hit Beavs early as a top play - waited too long.


BTW - same with the IRISH
$ IS THIS GAME AN ABSOLUTE MUST WIN FOR S CARO ? ...... NO
How about N Dame ? ....... ABSOLUTELY

$$$$$ HAS THE 'STORY BEEN WRITTEN' (2022) for N Dame, or is there MORE WORK TO DO?
>> pages are blank, the season is incomplete

How about S Carolina? Hell they beat Clemson, A&M, Tennessee, and Kentucky !!!!
>> Their 2022 season IS COMPLETE - the result here is inconsequential, and anticlimactic

On game day - both will be fired up, and play hard yes. BUT who you reckon is working harder during bowl prep (coaches and players) - with more intensity and FOCUS?

SCaro is off a huge bowl win last year as well (beat N Carolina 38-21 / +11) - Irish off an embarrassing (coaching wise) loss to Okie St, and a beatdown in 2020 by Bama.

Sounds silly to most that break down games more traditional ways - BUT since I started viewing bowl match-ups in this manner I've done much better - over a 10 year period, last year my worst at 8-4 (top plays). With all the changes lately, doubt I can keep up that pace tho ha
 
bookieassassin said:
It's one of my top plays at 4 - Buffalo should get killed - line movement is wrong IMO

Live - in-game stuff

We've got several that will likely win SU -

Oregon State. > Boise > SMiss > Fresno > BYU?

I'll play Oregon State if down at any time ( love them here but just ain't laying 10 ffs)

Same with Boise, to a lesser degree - game is 30 minutes from NTX - might go myself

Rice is decent 1H - D falls apart 2H - SMiss should 'win' the 2H for sure ?

Fresno / JH WILL come back - if down - large play ...they might start slow

BYU of course depends on who shows up - bad spot for Ponies (HC stated last week "game doesn't matter") - BYU NEEDS THIS W
>>that rat basterd Tanner Mordecai should play it appears - if Hall plays and other key guys play we should be fine, but if not SMU might be a live play. Typically Ponies start fast - fade big time late, so if Hall plays BYU should come back ....

Punching myself in the face for not playing UL / Cinn 1H under - waited for 21 ....
Click to expand...
TREMENDO...B.A. IN BIG GEORGIA SOUTHERN -3 and notre dame -2!!!!! with you totally, SIR!!!
 
bookieassassin said:
gonna wait and see how low Irish drop - might go lower than 2 , not sure - like 90% of $$ is on SC
Click to expand...
Close to adding ND as well.

WKU getting all their studs back from the portal. Going to have to hedge here at some point with USA being so large lol

But first things first. UConn and EMU :)
 
satnightfever05 said:
Close to adding ND as well.

WKU getting all their studs back from the portal. Going to have to hedge here at some point with USA being so large lol

But first things first. UConn and EMU :)
Click to expand...

A REALLY CHALLENGING DEVELOPMENT - no doubt
>> to NFL !! - but playing ...... to portal !! - but playing ...... to portal, not playing, to playing (maybe)

I think with maybe a few exceptions, I'll stick with my original plan - but watch (CLOSELY) once game begins. Here if WKU - POOF! - comes out and looks great, I might hedge - but otherwise I'll just let it go. Very tough for these (star) players to simply FLIP THE SWITCH, and go "awright let's get this!!". Because in most cases they haven't been working out, taking great care of themselves - and probably not working with the team. Human nature being what it is - others have to resent guys missing work and just showing up.

$ Especially if we get better line value - here line is still 4' ? - might see a late drop to 3 or so?- tho been watching for this for awhile
 
added super small

UConn 1Q +3

By far UConn's best Q / Herd's worst

Rushing (1Q > 4Q)

UConn O - 6.3/rush - 5.2 - 4.1 - 3.7
Herd O - 3.9 - 5.0 - 4.4 - 4.6

UConn D - 3.8 - 4.2 - 5.4 - 4.1
Herd D - 4.1 - 2.8 - 1.9 - 2.3

scoring

UConn O #89 1H / #124 2H
Herd - #94/#110

UConn D - #97 / #42
Herd D #23 / #7


I kinda like the fat 10' small - but can see Herd pulling away late - UConn 1H (might) make more sense?, if you haven't bet - Marshall is typically a team that plays to their opponents level (tho late in season got more steady) - so surprising to me if they showed up dominating from the start. UConn's not very good, but will 100% play their azz off here
 
Speaking of teams that will play their azz off, vs one that doesn't wanna lose, but otherwise could care less?

adding one unit +

Kansas +3

Hogs have a ton of key guys leaving, coaches leaving or getting fired - HC looks half dead. LOVE the Hogs, but this bowl game is simply in the way, not important or key to building their program. For Kansas it's MASSIVE - a program changer. Play ML as well. Line should only drop from here - 3 is disappearing fast
 
bookieassassin said:
added super small

UConn 1Q +3

By far UConn's best Q / Herd's worst

Rushing (1Q > 4Q)

UConn O - 6.3/rush - 5.2 - 4.1 - 3.7
Herd O - 3.9 - 5.0 - 4.4 - 4.6

UConn D - 3.8 - 4.2 - 5.4 - 4.1
Herd D - 4.1 - 2.8 - 1.9 - 2.3

scoring

UConn O #89 1H / #124 2H
Herd - #94/#110

UConn D - #97 / #42
Herd D #23 / #7


I kinda like the fat 10' small - but can see Herd pulling away late - UConn 1H (might) make more sense?, if you haven't bet - Marshall is typically a team that plays to their opponents level (tho late in season got more steady) - so surprising to me if they showed up dominating from the start. UConn's not very good, but will 100% play their azz off here
Click to expand...
On the huskies at 10. Seeing 11.5 now. Gross.

1H looks tasty too. Will see if they have the horses the entire game. Don’t really get why Marshall is laying DD here vs a team who is all in trying to win
 
satnightfever05 said:
On the huskies at 10. Seeing 11.5 now. Gross.

1H looks tasty too. Will see if they have the horses the entire game. Don’t really get why Marshall is laying DD here vs a team who is all in trying to win
Click to expand...
UConn is horrific. Most of their wins against the worst teams in CFB. Central Conn, FIU, UMass, BC. I mean my god. Another win against Fresno cross country without their QB and other key injuries. Extremely fortunate season. Their QB is one of the worst in CFB. Marshall has an AWESOME defense by every metric and should totally shut UConn down.

Marshall's run stats on offense don't look great on paper but a lot of it is how CFB counts sack yards lost as rush yards. Colombi played half the season for Marshall and is an all-time stiff. 43 carries for -18 yards as he had unfathomable pressure to sack rate of 37%. Fancher takes way fewer sacks and can actually move as he has 450 yards rushing at 4.5 YPC.

Marshall's best RB was hurt preseason and only played the last two games. Ali had 1400 yards and 23 TD last season and has looked great in both games.

Full season metrics are going to greatly underrate Marshall IMO. UConn is a total fraud. Marshall a veteran team that were blown out in the bowl last year and I think they absolutely paste UConn tomorrow.
 
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