2022-23 BOWL GUIDE

bookieassassin

bookieassassin

Pretty much a regular
Last 7 years - 156-87
* top plays 62-24
* smaller 94-63


ONE UNIT +

Georgia -7 1H ---W
Air Force +7/4 ---W
SDSU -2' ---L
GA SOUTHERN -4 --L
BYU -1' ---L
EMU +4'---W
Duke -1 / +2 ---W
Fresno -3 ---W
Alabama -5 ---W
Kansas +3 ---W
Wake Forest -1 ---W
S Alabama -3 / 5' ---L
NCST P ---L
Miss St P ---W
Notre Dame -2 ---W
LSU -9'/13' ---W


smaller

Brock Bowers over 67' receiving ---W
Max D. over 31' rushing ---L
Kenny M. over 26' RECEIVING ---L
Q Johnston over 4' receptions ---L
J Wiley over 16.5 receiving yds ---L
E Demarcado UNDER 62 rushing ---W
TCU +3 3Q ---L
Iowa -1'---W
UConn +10 ---L
Penn St +3 ---W
CCaro +10 ---L
SMiss -5'---W
Liberty +3 1H ---W
Frank Harris over 41' rushing ---L
Washington +10' / Beavs -1' (6.5/-110)---W
Fresno -2' 2H ---W
SMU P live --L
TCU / Michigan 1H UNDER 30 --W
Boise -7' live ---L
UConn 1Q +3---L
AF/Baylor 1H under ---W
ULL +7' ---W
Mizzou 2H TT over 13' ---L
SDSU / MT 1H under 24 ---L
TCU +8 --- W
Illinois/Miss St 1H under 23 ---W
Mich/ TCU 2H over 27'-- W
Tulane TT over 31 ---W
Tyjae spears over 128.5 rushing ---W


DOG ML

0.75
E MICHIGAN ---W

0.5
Penn St ---W
BYU ---W
Air Force ---W

0.25
Liberty ----L
Washington ---W
Kansas ---L
Tulane ---W

< 0.25
TCU (v Ga)--L
UConn ---L
ULL ---L
 
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BIG PICTURE


These are exhibition games (mostly). The basic idea is to find games where one team is there to WIN - the other ain't. Remove the word MOTIVATION from your bowl vocabulary. Instead ask the following question: "Is this where they wanted to be when the season began?" Then - "Has their 'story' been written (season over really),or is there more work to do?"

KEY: bowl prep is tough - over the holidays especially. Only teams that really want to be there get in quality work. If your bowl practices are shit - it's tough to just show up and play. SIMPLE.


IDEAS

1) What happened in their last bowl game? Huge win, or get their azz kicked? It matters. If friends and family took time off from their vacation last year to see me play, and we were embarrassed - we likely will see a strong effort. Off a huge win, it might not matter as much.....
* do bowls seem to be important to this HC/program?
* consider the direction of the program
* the HC's bowl game history - some simply don't care (Leach) - for some it's huge - to keep their job, or build the program

2) Who will be available?
* will the HC even be there?
* will star players show up?
* will key players hit the portal?
* really need to go to local news / beat writers, team websites for updates
$ focus on those that affect your wager - if so, better wait

NOTE: I actually often prefer to GUESS, and take advantage of a great number - then hedge if necessary.

3) Is there a matchup edge that can change the game?
* can the favorite simply IMPOSE THEIR WILL?
* or can the dog DISRUPT what the favorite likes to do - maybe strip their IDENTITY?

4) When can I get the number I want?
* recall in the earlier games especially - the line doesn't matter as much - so be patient.
* in bowl games - it has been more profitable to FOLLOW the line movement - historically the line movement is correct about 64% of the time / 56% for totals - (don't be a contrarian now).

5) Step 1 is to pick the SU winner of the game - only about 5-6X a year (on average) does the SU winner not cover.
* consider betting the dog on the ML- dogs win about 24% of games during the RS, 37% of bowls.
* early bowl games this is more of a factor
$ don't forget this in contests where you pick the SU winner


STRATEGY

$$$ don't get bogged down in all the different angles - these are just tools in your toolbox - try to keep the BIG PICTURE in mind - "who wants this more?"


* A team is ready to play - or not. Almost never does a team just POOF!, 'find it' once the game begins. In the early games this is huge - later (more meaningful) games, it happens slightly more often. The exception usually is when you have a dominant player, playing in his last game.

* Consider travel, and crowd edge - some schools have little money - team may be taking a LONG bus ride? Some fan bases may show up to root for the conference school (eg Potato Bowl)

* Knowing how much actual practice time a team will have might be something you want to know if risking serious cash. I've read in the past a team that had finals during bowl prep, and hardly worked out. Seems like BYU (unfortunately) has a finals conflict this year. Also not all teams have an indoor practice facility - has weather limited their work?

* Interim coaches haven't mattered much lately - even becoming a 'play on' spot recently (it seems).

* MATCH-UP issues - TURNOVERS are often huge - is there a significant : HC, QB, DEFENSIVE, ST edge?. Don't forget, with a long layoff, the better D can be a huge edge - O's might start slow. A ST unit that can flip the field, can be huge in a tight game.

* Visualize the highs/ lows a team has experienced over the course of the long season - historically in bowls, a team that (finished) strong will not simply pick up where they left off - conversely, one that fell flat late, might regain the early season momentum, and close out the year on a great note. It depends on the HC / direction of the program - AND injury situation.

* AVOID the 'bubble-burst' team - EXPECTING better things (eg. a play-off spot) - then BAM! - season goals are shattered.
THEN - having to go prepare for a crap bowl vs a 'lesser' opponent, over the holidays?

* Watch out for the BOWL VIRGIN - 1st bowl or 1st in a LONG TIME - you think they will play hard, but often the bowl is used as a vacation / reward >> their goal has been met.

* Teams that achieve their 6th win in their last game - are 70% in bowls the past few years - if they really stunk the previous year (< 3.5 wins) - it's 74%.
>> these fit I believe - Army - Miami,O - Mizzou - UAB - S Miss - ULL - GASO
 
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Last edited:
bookieassassin said:
BIG PICTURE


These are exhibition games (mostly). The basic idea is to find games where one team is there to WIN - the other ain't. Remove the word MOTIVATION from your bowl vocabulary. Instead ask the following question: "Is this where they wanted to be when the season began?" Then - "Has their 'story' been written (season over really),or is there more work to do?"

KEY: bowl prep is tough - over the holidays especially. Only teams that really want to be there get in quality work. If your bowl practices are shit - it's tough to just show up and play. SIMPLE.


IDEAS

1) What happened in their last bowl game? Huge win, or get their azz kicked? It matters. If friends and family took time off from their vacation last year to see me play, and we were embarrassed - we likely will see a strong effort. Off a huge win, it might not matter as much.....
* do bowls seem to be important to this HC/program?
* consider the direction of the program
* the HC's bowl game history - some simply don't care (Leach) - for some it's huge - to keep their job, or build the program

2) Who will be available?
* will the HC even be there?
* will star players show up?
* will key players hit the portal?
* really need to go to local news / beat writers, team websites for updates
$ focus on those that affect your wager - if so, better wait

NOTE: I actually often prefer to GUESS, and take advantage of a great number - then hedge if necessary.

3) Is there a matchup edge that can change the game?
* can the favorite simply IMPOSE THEIR WILL?
* or can the dog DISRUPT what the favorite likes to do - maybe strip their IDENTITY?

4) When can I get the number I want?
* recall in the earlier games especially - the line doesn't matter as much - so be patient.
* in bowl games - it has been more profitable to FOLLOW the line movement - historically the line movement is correct about 64% of the time (don't be a contrarian now).

5) Step 1 is to pick the SU winner of the game - only about 5-6X a year (on average) does the SU winner not cover.
* consider betting the dog on the ML- dogs win about 24% of games during the RS, 37% of bowls.
* early bowl games this is more of a factor
$ don't forget this in contests where you pick the SU winner


STRATEGY

$$$ don't get bogged down in all the different angles - these are just tools in your toolbox - try to keep the BIG PICTURE in mind - "who wants this more?"


* A team is ready to play - or not. Almost never does a team just POOF!, 'find it' once the game begins. In the early games this is huge - later (more meaningful) games, it happens slightly more often. The exception usually is when you have a dominant player, playing in his last game.

* Consider travel, and crowd edge - some schools have little money - team may be taking a LONG bus ride? Some fan bases may show up to root for the conference school (eg Potato Bowl)

* Knowing how much actual practice time a team will have might be something you want to know if risking serious cash. I've read in the past a team that had finals during bowl prep, and hardly worked out. Seems like BYU (unfortunately) has a finals conflict this year. Also not all teams have an indoor practice facility - has weather limited their work?

* Interim coaches haven't mattered much lately - even becoming a 'play on' spot recently (it seems).

* MATCH-UP issues - TURNOVERS are often huge - is there a significant : HC, QB, DEFENSIVE, ST edge?. Don't forget, with a long layoff, the better D can be a huge edge - O's might start slow. A ST unit that can flip the field, can be huge in a tight game.

* Visualize the highs/ lows a team has experienced over the course of the long season - historically in bowls, a team that (finished) strong will not simply pick up where they left off - conversely, one that fell flat late, might regain the early season momentum, and close out the year on a great note. It depends on the HC / direction of the program - AND injury situation.

* AVOID the 'bubble-burst' team - EXPECTING better things (eg. a play-off spot) - then BAM! - season goals are shattered.
THEN - having to go prepare for a crap bowl vs a 'lesser' opponent, over the holidays?

* Watch out for the BOWL VIRGIN - 1st bowl or 1st in a LONG TIME - you think they will play hard, but often the bowl is used as a vacation / reward >> their goal has been met.

* In bowls - it has been more profitable to FOLLOW the line movement - don't be a contrarian very often here....

* Teams that achieve their 6th win in their last game - are 70% in bowls the past few years - if they really stunk the previous year (< 3.5 wins) - it's 74%.
>> these fit I believe - Army - Miami,O - Mizzou - UAB - S Miss - ULL - GASO
Click to expand...

spot on. :clapping2:

excellent thoughts, and couldn't agree more.

with #3, the top rushing teams typically fair well along those lines.
 
these are early leans I jotted down (before) the match-ups were announced - reflecting above ideas mostly


LB= last bowl
LBW= last bowl win
LG= last game
LW= last win


PLAY ON

strong lean

UTSA- NO bowl wins ever + QB last game
ARMY / AF - unless big favorite - SA are 70% in bowls
E Michigan - LBW 1986 - got killed LY
Fla St - hot team with MO - must win - 2019 LB
Fresno - late surge + QB LG
E Caro - HC no BW in tenure- QB last game

lean

NDame - bad L LY
LSU- bad L LY - building- QB??
Illinois - LW 2011
DUKE - building
KANSAS - LBW 2008 !! - MUST WIN, OR happy to be here?
Minny - HC 3-0 su/ats
S Caro - late surge/ must win - did have big W LY
Iowa - always tough - L LY to Kentucky
Wazzu - off 2 bad BL
Oreg St - L to Utah St LY (-7)
Mizzou- LBW 2014 - NEED W
NCST - LW 2017 !
CUSE- 2018 LBW - RB??
S Miss - LBW 2011 - building
BOISE - 2017 LW - 2 cancels
Wyoming - HC somehow 3-1 / 4-0 - +52 ats
UTEP - zero bowl wins
BYU - L to UAB LY - good bowl team


consider

Ole Miss - bad L Sugar - need W
Okie St - Gundy great bowl coach
Cinn -
Wisky
Fla?
Penn St - L to Hogs -
Purdue?
TEXAS - kings of Alamo Bowl - +60 ats L2
Ohio- 2019 LBW - strong bowl team
Mia, O - 1-2/3-0
SJSU- regain early MO? - fine HC no bowl wins


FADE?
* basically weak coaches, or don't care about bowls

MTS
Wake
Houston
Miss St - if favored
Pitt
Liberty?
NTX- 0-5/1-4 (-64 ats L4)
Toledo -0-4 su/ats
Terps? - huge W LY
SMU - (-79 ats) last 2 bowls
USC - missed play-off with last loss



Being a (regression) style handicapper - I love to fade teams off a huge bowl win LY - (look to) play a team that got embarrassed ......
 
RT asked :

Who are your favorite underdogs to win outright? Kinda like UConn, Liberty,AF,Mizzou,Utah St,Cuse and Iowa in addition to EMU



ALL of 'em man ha .....naw, haven't looked very closely yet I'm afraid - trying to be more patient, with the incredible amount of change

dropping most P/+1 games - many dogs I liked are now favorites

like a lot

EMU


might work

UCONN
Air Force
ULL
Mizzou
Okie St
Kansas
TTech
OU
PITT
S Caro
Tenn
Kan St
Ohio St
Tulane
Penn St

possible, but don't think so

Mia, O
Rice
Fla
Liberty
S Ala
Buffalo
MTS
CCaro
N Caro
Cuse
Wash
TCU
Utah St

probably not

NTX
Purdue
 
bookieassassin said:
Last 7 years - 156-87
* top plays 62-24
* smaller 94-63


ONE UNIT +

SDSU -2'
GA SOUTHERN -4
BYU -1'
EMU +4'

smaller

S Alabama -5'
Duke +2' / ML
Air Force +7




* I'll just add plays here so it's easy to keep up with - typically I'll have about 12-15 top plays - 25 or so smaller.
Click to expand...
OUTSTANDINGLY DOCUMENTED AND TAILED BY ME , AS ALWAYS "great bowling", "TREMENDO" , by the absolute best!!! YOU ARE "THAT", thank you B,A, b.o.l.
 
bookieassassin said:
Last 7 years - 156-87
* top plays 62-24
* smaller 94-63


ONE UNIT +

SDSU -2'
GA SOUTHERN -4
BYU -1'
EMU +4'

smaller

S Alabama -5'
Duke +2' / ML
Air Force +7




* I'll just add plays here so it's easy to keep up with - typically I'll have about 12-15 top plays - 25 or so smaller.
Click to expand...
I’m on 6 of the 7 you listed already outside Air Force (no read yet there). HA. Great minds?!?!
 
Good Lord Brotha….You’ve been busting your Ass!! Thanks. AFA seem on the wrong side of the spread. Baylor not much skin in the game.

Wolfie’s selections was awaiting your blessing, and of course winners too.
Mizzou+
Duke
Fresno
UTSA

Dynamite
 
satnightfever05 said:
I’m on 6 of the 7 you listed already outside Air Force (no read yet there). HA. Great minds?!?!
Click to expand...
Line value also matters. Like you, im on sdsu -2.5. Would I play it at -7 now? Probably not. I got Duke at +3. At PK now. It’s probably a lower bet.

Guessing we will still see movements in the post Christmas bowls too.

One thing I’ve seen recently too is if you can find team outlets or message boards with rumblings about who is opting out of the game- books are usually pretty slow to adjust the line. Now if Caleb is out for usc, that’ll move the line quickly once it’s on Twitter, but having OL or best D player sit are usually tried to be kept under wraps- there are opps to be exploited.

Example- OSU Utah last year. Utes were +7. Rumblings osu were gonna be without like 6-7 kids who were going to the nfl. Line finally moved few days before to -3/-4, but if you knew ahead of time, you grabbed the 7 and cashed.
 
Baylor / AF -

A service academy (70% bowl bet / HC 7-4 ats) playing in the ARMED FORCES BOWL vs a team that beat an SEC team LY in the Sugar Bowl, in one of their best seasons ever? What do you think the Bears focus /. intensity level is during bowl prep? For AF this is Brad Roberts and QB Daniels LAST GAME - EVER (probably).
>> Before Ole Miss - Bears played Georgia in 2019
AF hasn't been a regular bowl team lately- so each is huge
* 2021- beat Louisville 31-28 (P)
2019 beat Wazzu 31-21 (-2')
2016 beat S Ala 45-21 (-14)

The real key here IMO- who TF really wants to get MARGIN on a service academy, esp. in a bowl paying tribute to them ha? Dave Aranda surely doesn't - he just wants to get out with a W. That's also a big reason (seldom mentioned) as to why SA are such a solid dog. This would be a large bet for me - I just don't like betting against Aranda. 1H might be better ?
 
Rjdbruin said:
I have also notice, don't have official numbers but early bowl games go over and later bowls go under.
Click to expand...

here's a block a few back - guess I got bored with it


2018

before 12/25
* fav were 11-3 SU / 10-4 ATS / 9-5 OU

1H fav went 10-3-1SU/ 10-4 ATS / 9-5 OU
2H fav went 10-3-1 SU / 9-5 ATS / 7-7 OU
* 5X 2H SU winner changed from 1H

12/26 > 12/29 (excluding PO games)
* fav were 4-7 SU / 3-8 ATS / 4-7 OU

1H fav went 6-5 SU / 5-6 ATS / 4-7 OU
2H fav went 2-8-1 SU / 2-9 ATS / 4-7 OU

12/30 > 1/7
* fav were 8-6 SU / 3-11 ATS / 6-8 OU

1H fav went 7-5-2 SU / 5-9 ATS / 7-7 OU
2H fav went 7-6-1 SU / 7-7 ATS / 6-8 OU

2017

before 12/25
* fav were 6-8 SU/ ATS / 8-6 OU

1H fav went 6-7-1 SU / 5-9 ATS / 6-8 OU
2H fav went 7-6-1 SU / 6-8 ATS / 5-9 OU

NOTE: only ONCE...did SU winner of 1H ...not win 2H too (ties to winner)
* total was same 7/14

12/25 > 12/29
* fav - 13-3 SU /10-6 ATS / 9-7 OU

1H fav- 10-5-1 / 10-6 / 8-6
2H fav- 11-4-1 / 9-7/ 6-8

NOTE: now 7X the 2H winner changed
* 7X the total flipped as well

> 12/30
* fav - 5-5 / 4-6 / 5-5

1H fav - 5-5 / 5-5 / 4-6
2H fav - 3-5-2 / 4-6 / 5-5

NOTE: only 4X did 1H winner win 2H too
* 7/10 the total flipped

2016

before 12/25
* fav were 3-10 ATS / 8 of 13 went UNDER

1H fav were 7-4-2 SU / 7-6 ATS / 5-8 OU
2H fav were 4-8-1 SU / 3-10 ATS / 8-5 OU

12/26-30
* fav were 5-14 ATS / 10/19 went OVER

1H fav were 9-8-2 SU / 6-13 ATS / 9-10 OU
2H fav were 9-10/ 7-12 / 10-9

after 12/31 (use 12/31 instead of 1/1 because big games on NYE)
* fav were 5-4 ATS / 7/9 went UNDER

1H fav went 9-0 SU / 7-2 ATS / 1-8 OU
2H fav 5-4/3-6/2-7



2015

before 12/25
*overall Favorites were 7-5 ATS / 8 of 12 went OVER
note: only 2X did DOG cover...but not WIN the game (Ohio / NMX)

1H Fav were 6-4-2 SU / 6-6 ATS / 6-6 OU >
2H Fav were 9-3 SU / 8-4 ATS / 8-4 OUn


12/26-12/30
*overall Fav were 10-6 ATS / 9-7 OU
note: only ONCE did the DOG cover and not WIN SU (Tulsa)

1H Fav were 10-3-3 SU / 8-8 ATS / 10-6 OU
2H Fav were 9-3-4 SU / 8-8 ATS / 5-11 OU


after 12/31
*overall Fav were 8-5 ATS / 8-5 OU
note: only ONCE did dog cover and not win (Clemson)

1H Fav went 10-2-1 SU / 9-4 ATS / 7-6 OU
2H Fav went 6-7 SU / 5-8 ATS / 9-4 OU
 
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The only bowls in which - BOTH teams are equally happy to be there - where neither has an emotional, psychological edge
>> missed a few I'm sure - wrong about a few maybe as well sure - haven't done a deep dive

Troy / UTSA
Rice/SM
NMSU/BG
S Caro / ND
Wyo / Ohio
Iowa / Kentucky ?
TCU / Michigan ?
Utah/PSU


eg. Ga / OSU - both will prepare / play hard sure - Buckeyes with a slight (hunger) edge - Dawgs off best season ever - no way they (as humans ha) duplicate that effort.
 
Thoughts on Iowa with Levis sitting out? No way Rodriguez can run well on the Hawkeyes and zero chance the Wildcats are pumped to play without him and vs Iowa.....
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Thoughts on Iowa with Levis sitting out? No way Rodriguez can run well on the Hawkeyes and zero chance the Wildcats are pumped to play without him and vs Iowa.....
Click to expand...

kinda like Iowa anyway - but no way I'm even gonna think about that one until the game approaches, or line hits 3 - plenty more changes possible

Forgot Iowa was now favored ha .....

I'd look into that QB situation (Iowa) before I risked a penny - but if you like 'em, I might play at < 2
 
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The Music City Bowl will feature: - Two offenses outside the top 100 in scoring - Two top-15 scoring defenses - Iowa's 3rd string QB - Kentucky's backup QB - Few first-string receivers This game is going to be a beautiful mess.
 
Have you heard if Rourke will be healthy for Ohio? Strong lean on them if so....they woulda killed Toledo in the MAC title game if he played.....
 
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thx boys .... :shake:

added smaller

Iowa -1' at MB

Sorry RT been too busy...

Wasn't too difficult to determine that Levis and CR wouldn't play - shoulda taken the early 3 ffs
 
bookieassassin said:
these are early leans I jotted down (before) the match-ups were announced - reflecting above ideas mostly


LB= last bowl
LBW= last bowl win
LG= last game
LW= last win


PLAY ON

strong lean

UTSA- NO bowl wins ever + QB last game
ARMY / AF - unless big favorite - SA are 70% in bowls
E Michigan - LBW 1986 - got killed LY
Fla St - hot team with MO - must win - 2019 LB
Fresno - late surge + QB LG
E Caro - HC no BW in tenure- QB last game

lean

NDame - bad L LY
LSU- bad L LY - building- QB??
Illinois - LW 2011
DUKE - building
KANSAS - LBW 2008 !! - MUST WIN, OR happy to be here?
Minny - HC 3-0 su/ats
S Caro - late surge/ must win - did have big W LY
Iowa - always tough - L LY to Kentucky
Wazzu - off 2 bad BL
Oreg St - L to Utah St LY (-7)
Mizzou- LBW 2014 - NEED W
NCST - LW 2017 !
CUSE- 2018 LBW - RB??
S Miss - LBW 2011 - building
BOISE - 2017 LW - 2 cancels
Wyoming - HC somehow 3-1 / 4-0 - +52 ats
UTEP - zero bowl wins
BYU - L to UAB LY - good bowl team


consider

Ole Miss - bad L Sugar - need W
Okie St - Gundy great bowl coach
Cinn -
Wisky
Fla?
Penn St - L to Hogs -
Purdue?
TEXAS - kings of Alamo Bowl - +60 ats L2
Ohio- 2019 LBW - strong bowl team
Mia, O - 1-2/3-0
SJSU- regain early MO? - fine HC no bowl wins


FADE?
* basically weak coaches, or don't care about bowls

MTS
Wake
Houston
Miss St - if favored
Pitt
Liberty?
NTX- 0-5/1-4 (-64 ats L4)
Toledo -0-4 su/ats
Terps? - huge W LY
SMU - (-79 ats) last 2 bowls
USC - missed play-off with last loss



Being a (regression) style handicapper - I love to fade teams off a huge bowl win LY - (look to) play a team that got embarrassed ......
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I haven’t slept since this post! “Let’s gooo”as the kids say. Or TREMENDO as PL goes it…
-UTEP will have Uncle MO, Mizzou has been a nice story…AFA as well!!
-Opt outs are rolling in daily, “next man up” will be the theme…DEPTH! & Leadership will rule.
Let’s make some coin BA, these Books are looking soft imo, watered down bowl lines….lots of early confusion.

If any of y’all can introduce me to a Capper that does more Due Diligence than THE Bookie Assassin. I’ll also tell you to jerk my other leg! c’mon man!! This is some shrewd wisdom being shared by a generous Legend. All I can say as an internet bud, is pass on the giving/benefits to others & have an awesome holidays!!! Thanks BA & it’s bowling time
:bballspin:
 
Wolfeman said:
I haven’t slept since this post! “Let’s gooo”as the kids say. Or TREMENDO as PL goes it…
-UTEP will have Uncle MO, Mizzou has been a nice story…AFA as well!!
-Opt outs are rolling in daily, “next man up” will be the theme…DEPTH! & Leadership will rule.
Let’s make some coin BA, these Books are looking soft imo, watered down bowl lines….lots of early confusion.

If any of y’all can introduce me to a Capper that does more Due Diligence than THE Bookie Assassin. I’ll also tell you to jerk my other leg! c’mon man!! This is some shrewd wisdom being shared by a generous Legend. All I can say as an internet bud, is pass on the giving/benefits to others & have an awesome holidays!!! Thanks BA & it’s bowling time
:bballspin:
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TREMENDO!!! REALLY!! SIGNATURE BOOKIE ASSASSIN
 
Only on the 15th hole boys -no celebrating until we're in the clubhouse < 70 - sipping Pappy 23 (you buy) - Mellow Corn (I buy) haha
 
Rusty Trombone said:
BYU now +3? Mordechai playing for sure? Rice?
Still like LSU at -11? Seems a bit much now
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Rice + best OL - OUT
>> plus best deep threat Goffney


TM - has zero to gain from playing - a LOSE - LOSE prop. He plays? maybe take SMU 2H. A horrible ending for SMU - BYU needs this W.


Already played ? let it ride

No? take BYU
 
bookieassassin said:
Rice + best OL - OUT
>> plus best deep threat Goffney


TM - has zero to gain from playing - a LOSE - LOSE prop. He plays? maybe take SMU 2H. A horrible ending for SMU - BYU needs this W.


Already played ? let it ride

No? take BYU
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Like back down to 1.5. One of the more interesting line and movements of bowl season so far.
 
I caught Mr. PL getting down on the dance floor last night!!:breakdance::bouncing: Those Italians dance til they’re 95…

I Was hoping for the Green light on PSU. A lotta opt outs, but Clifford the big-red-dogs last final game. It’s the damn Rose Bowl, give me the Big 10! Utah barely been hanging aseason long…Penn st had an actually outstanding season only losing to Mich & Ohio st. and with a mediocre QB imo. Lions defense is ferocious, Utah coming off their Superbowl.
 
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bookieassassin said:
BIG PICTURE


These are exhibition games (mostly). The basic idea is to find games where one team is there to WIN - the other ain't. Remove the word MOTIVATION from your bowl vocabulary. Instead ask the following question: "Is this where they wanted to be when the season began?" Then - "Has their 'story' been written (season over really),or is there more work to do?"

KEY: bowl prep is tough - over the holidays especially. Only teams that really want to be there get in quality work. If your bowl practices are shit - it's tough to just show up and play. SIMPLE.


IDEAS

1) What happened in their last bowl game? Huge win, or get their azz kicked? It matters. If friends and family took time off from their vacation last year to see me play, and we were embarrassed - we likely will see a strong effort. Off a huge win, it might not matter as much.....
* do bowls seem to be important to this HC/program?
* consider the direction of the program
* the HC's bowl game history - some simply don't care (Leach) - for some it's huge - to keep their job, or build the program

2) Who will be available?
* will the HC even be there?
* will star players show up?
* will key players hit the portal?
* really need to go to local news / beat writers, team websites for updates
$ focus on those that affect your wager - if so, better wait

NOTE: I actually often prefer to GUESS, and take advantage of a great number - then hedge if necessary.

3) Is there a matchup edge that can change the game?
* can the favorite simply IMPOSE THEIR WILL?
* or can the dog DISRUPT what the favorite likes to do - maybe strip their IDENTITY?

4) When can I get the number I want?
* recall in the earlier games especially - the line doesn't matter as much - so be patient.
* in bowl games - it has been more profitable to FOLLOW the line movement - historically the line movement is correct about 64% of the time / 56% for totals - (don't be a contrarian now).

5) Step 1 is to pick the SU winner of the game - only about 5-6X a year (on average) does the SU winner not cover.
* consider betting the dog on the ML- dogs win about 24% of games during the RS, 37% of bowls.
* early bowl games this is more of a factor
$ don't forget this in contests where you pick the SU winner


STRATEGY

$$$ don't get bogged down in all the different angles - these are just tools in your toolbox - try to keep the BIG PICTURE in mind - "who wants this more?"


* A team is ready to play - or not. Almost never does a team just POOF!, 'find it' once the game begins. In the early games this is huge - later (more meaningful) games, it happens slightly more often. The exception usually is when you have a dominant player, playing in his last game.

* Consider travel, and crowd edge - some schools have little money - team may be taking a LONG bus ride? Some fan bases may show up to root for the conference school (eg Potato Bowl)

* Knowing how much actual practice time a team will have might be something you want to know if risking serious cash. I've read in the past a team that had finals during bowl prep, and hardly worked out. Seems like BYU (unfortunately) has a finals conflict this year. Also not all teams have an indoor practice facility - has weather limited their work?

* Interim coaches haven't mattered much lately - even becoming a 'play on' spot recently (it seems).

* MATCH-UP issues - TURNOVERS are often huge - is there a significant : HC, QB, DEFENSIVE, ST edge?. Don't forget, with a long layoff, the better D can be a huge edge - O's might start slow. A ST unit that can flip the field, can be huge in a tight game.

* Visualize the highs/ lows a team has experienced over the course of the long season - historically in bowls, a team that (finished) strong will not simply pick up where they left off - conversely, one that fell flat late, might regain the early season momentum, and close out the year on a great note. It depends on the HC / direction of the program - AND injury situation.

* AVOID the 'bubble-burst' team - EXPECTING better things (eg. a play-off spot) - then BAM! - season goals are shattered.
THEN - having to go prepare for a crap bowl vs a 'lesser' opponent, over the holidays?

* Watch out for the BOWL VIRGIN - 1st bowl or 1st in a LONG TIME - you think they will play hard, but often the bowl is used as a vacation / reward >> their goal has been met.

* Teams that achieve their 6th win in their last game - are 70% in bowls the past few years - if they really stunk the previous year (< 3.5 wins) - it's 74%.
>> these fit I believe - Army - Miami,O - Mizzou - UAB - S Miss - ULL - GASO
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POST#2....is ULTRA B.A .TREMENDO!!! as usual, typical "bowl"savvy by bookieassassin, whom I have followed and profited by for many years!!! thank you, B.A....exceptional !..as always, SIR!!
 
I added another large chip to Ga. Southern -3.5… hook doesn’t scare me off.
C’mon man, it’s Buffalo traveling to the Deep South. Pappy 23.
 
BYU +4 now. Good line value on everything else. I hedged off BYU when I read the SMU QB would play but forgot I had put 2u on BYU and only hedged off 1u. So stuck with BYU -1 for 1u. I know this - BYU will score on that SMU defense. Though their D is pathetic too - hope for a shootout win type of deal. thanks as always BA.
 
Any thoughts on BG -2.5? Get to play close to home and NMST will be without Pavia....probably shouldn't even be in a bowl game.....would have lost the SJST if game wasn't canceled....caught Liberty during Hugh Freeze leaving weekend.....
 
Here's how I read the SMU / BYU thing.
>> btw there has been no announcement that TM will play - unless today. I don't think this is smart money moving this one

The New Mexico Bowl really needs to sell tickets - plus coaches have no interest in giving their opponent an advantage. So why announce anything before kick-off? THIS theme will be repeated many times over ....

GTTH - neither QB plays probably. If you watch SMU HC being interviewed - there is no mention of TM - why is that you reckon? Obviously reporters have been told it's off limits. Why would it be off limits?

Worst case for BYU backers - Hall is out / TM plays.

If you watched SMU play - Rice was the guy that bailed them out time and time again. He's gone - several others are out on that O. BYU seems to be all in.

Ponies have trouble getting fans in Dallas- nobody except parents will go to New Mexico. Mormons show up regardless, and should have a nice HF edge here. Can the Ponies manufacture emotion here and pull off an (upset) W ? Sure but remote IMO. I'm aware what the spread is - SMU win here is an upset.
 
Wolfeman said:
I caught Mr. PL getting down on the dance floor last night!!:breakdance::bouncing: Those Italians dance til they’re 95…

I Was hoping for the Green light on PSU. A lotta opt outs, but Clifford the big-red-dogs last final game. It’s the damn Rose Bowl, give me the Big 10! Utah barely been hanging aseason long…Penn st had an actually outstanding season only losing to Mich & Ohio st. and with a mediocre QB imo. Lions defense is ferocious, Utah coming off their Superbowl.
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Utah's best player out now (TE) - line shoulda dropped - might bump that one up - Utes lost last 3 bowls - used to be automatic ..... Penn State is simply the better team - that plays better on the road. QB should finish strong.

haha - that crazy bastard stays up late don't he
 
added smaller juiced

CCaro +10

* don't even like them here really - this (line) is based on QB McCall *not* playing - he's in the portal - so EC is getting slammed - BUT HE'S PLAYING
>> line should be 3/4 maybe - hoping to play ECU if it drops a bunch
 
bookieassassin said:
Here's how I read the SMU / BYU thing.
>> btw there has been no announcement that TM will play - unless today. I don't think this is smart money moving this one

The New Mexico Bowl really needs to sell tickets - plus coaches have no interest in giving their opponent an advantage. So why announce anything before kick-off? THIS theme will be repeated many times over ....

GTTH - neither QB plays probably. If you watch SMU HC being interviewed - there is no mention of TM - why is that you reckon? Obviously reporters have been told it's off limits. Why would it be off limits?

Worst case for BYU backers - Hall is out / TM plays.

If you watched SMU play - Rice was the guy that bailed them out time and time again. He's gone - several others are out on that O. BYU seems to be all in.

Ponies have trouble getting fans in Dallas- nobody except parents will go to New Mexico. Mormons show up regardless, and should have a nice HF edge here. Can the Ponies manufacture emotion here and pull off an (upset) W ? Sure but remote IMO. I'm aware what the spread is - SMU win here is an upset.
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Line at 5.5 now… even if hall was out, I’d be taking Cougs at this many points
 
satnightfever05 said:
Line at 5.5 now… even if hall was out, I’d be taking Cougs at this many points
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You were right - this line movement is silly ....

FULL STRENGTH this line might be P / maybe bounce back and forth 1' either way - motivated Ponies maybe close -1' or so
>> 5' or more is saying Rice and TM play - BYU QB and more are definitely out. Note SP+ does have SMU -6 or so (full strength)
 
bookieassassin said:
Utah's best player out now (TE) - line shoulda dropped - might bump that one up - Utes lost last 3 bowls - used to be automatic ..... Penn State is simply the better team - that plays better on the road. QB should finish strong.

haha - that crazy bastard stays up late don't he
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tremendo...always reading this great stuff and learning from B.A. and you WOLFE, "the lava man"! plz. stay safe and winntng....love you both....the best!
 
Fresno -3

One Unit play

was waiting for this to drop - now Wazzu OC gone (NTX) - only gonna rise ; the play is on JAKE HAENER to go out in style
 
One Unit - juiced

Duke -1

tough way to end the year for UCF - now they prepare for DUKE in the WEEDEATER BOWL?
>>> LY whipped Fla - this one doesn't matter
 
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