2016 NBA Playoffs: First Round Discussion

Don't we see many great players in college, during March? Where are they in the NBA?
Perhaps the money is too much for them to actually work at the game.

Jordan had a great talent, but look how he transformed his body from one season to the next. Knowing he had to be bigger/stronger to compete. Working free throws to the point he could shoot them with his eyes closed.
I saw Jordan when he played with the bullets in 01, after the shoot around, he stayed on the court and shot free throw after free throw. This was a guy icing his knees every time he went to the bench. Still practicing FT's.

Not sure the kids put the work in now. But what do I know.
 
kdog said:
I can see that thinking during the regular season NBA but come playoff time time the NHL kicks the NBA's ass as far as close, exciting, action packed games go. And they do it year after year.

No foul, foul, foul, time out, foul, time out, foul, ad nauseam in the last few minutes of a hockey game.
Click to expand...

It's exciting because of the fast, unpredictable nature of the sport. That doesn't mean that's it's better IMO. Two different things. There's no connection with the players on emotional level. That's where the problem lies

The NHL doesn't give a shit about its viewership. It's content with its niche audience. No idea why they don't want to market their players/sport more.
 
pressitup said:
Don't we see many great players in college, during March? Where are they in the NBA?
Perhaps the money is too much for them to actually work at the game.

Jordan had a great talent, but look how he transformed his body from one season to the next. Knowing he had to be bigger/stronger to compete. Working free throws to the point he could shoot them with his eyes closed.
I saw Jordan when he played with the bullets in 01, after the shoot around, he stayed on the court and shot free throw after free throw. This was a guy icing his knees every time he went to the bench. Still practicing FT's.

Not sure the kids put the work in now. But what do I know.
Click to expand...

And this is why I want the NBA to get rid of 1 and dones. Players look great in college because the vast majority of the players suck. The way coaches teach the game isn't as important as keeping the kids in class and out of trouble. Very little fundamentals taught in college IMO. It takes a long time to adapt when you step into the pros. And if you're 19 or 20.... Too many pitfall opportunities.
 
Teams who lost their previous game as a favorite of at least 4-points have been extremely profitable with a record of 98-69 ATS (58.7%) with +23.71 units won and a 14.2% return on investment (ROI). It’s also worth noting that these systems improve dramatically if they lost their previous game as a road favorite. These results are hardly surprising when you consider the betting public’s tendency to overreact to the most recent game.
Let’s pretend that the Toronto Raptors closed as 5.5-point favorites against the Indiana Pacers, but ultimately lose 95-90. Uneducated squares would immediately push the panic button and start gravitating towards the Pacers in the subsequent game. For contrarian bettors, this creates an excellent opportunity to buy low and take the Raptors as an artificially low price.
Although bettors tend to overreact when favorites lose, there do seem to be some exceptions. If a team loses at the buzzer, bettors chalk it up to luck and deduce that either team had the opportunity to win. If a small favorite loses, they conclude the game was a coin-flip to begin with. But what happens if we create a betting system that excludes those situations?
Our research found that over the past eleven years, teams who lost their previous game by at least 4-points after closing as a favorite of at least 4-points have gone 79-46 ATS (63.2%) with +28.97 units won.
 
nbafan88 said:
It's exciting because of the fast, unpredictable nature of the sport. That doesn't mean that's it's better IMO. Two different things. There's no connection with the players on emotional level. That's where the problem lies

The NHL doesn't give a shit about its viewership. It's content with its niche audience. No idea why they don't want to market their players/sport more.
Click to expand...
An emotional level? C'mon man.
 
R1 G2:
bet Clips/Blazers full game over

AND

if Charlotte closes +5 or less bet Hornets SU, ATS, and team total over OR
if Charlotte closes higher than +5 then bet Hornets/Heat full game over
 
Real tough to see DAL staying in this game. I'd say the same for GSW, but the Curry injury actually seems legit enough to back off of a play. Heard he missed shootaround
 
nbafan88 said:
Teams who lost their previous game as a favorite of at least 4-points have been extremely profitable with a record of 98-69 ATS (58.7%) with +23.71 units won and a 14.2% return on investment (ROI). It’s also worth noting that these systems improve dramatically if they lost their previous game as a road favorite. These results are hardly surprising when you consider the betting public’s tendency to overreact to the most recent game.
Let’s pretend that the Toronto Raptors closed as 5.5-point favorites against the Indiana Pacers, but ultimately lose 95-90. Uneducated squares would immediately push the panic button and start gravitating towards the Pacers in the subsequent game. For contrarian bettors, this creates an excellent opportunity to buy low and take the Raptors as an artificially low price.
Although bettors tend to overreact when favorites lose, there do seem to be some exceptions. If a team loses at the buzzer, bettors chalk it up to luck and deduce that either team had the opportunity to win. If a small favorite loses, they conclude the game was a coin-flip to begin with. But what happens if we create a betting system that excludes those situations?
Our research found that over the past eleven years, teams who lost their previous game by at least 4-points after closing as a favorite of at least 4-points have gone 79-46 ATS (63.2%) with +28.97 units won.
Click to expand...

This version of the Indiana team says to me they take G2 off. Of course the Craptors have yet to win any of 6 home playoff games over the last 3 seasons by more than the current spread for G2 (wins by 2 & 5 pts, losses by 7, 7, 10 & 11 pts) so live betting with an eye to seeing from both teams what's needed for such a result to manifest will be my approach.
 
It's Pacers or nothing for me. Have zero trust in this Raptors team in the playoffs, till they manage to get out of the first round...
 
Hmm

I believe Paul George comeback may be the most interesting thing in the East and will be betting on it, not necessarily on the Pacers every game but he's the most interesting part of that side of the bracket to me
 
I agree KJ


Three significant ROAD friendly refs in Toronto...

4/18/2016
[TABLE="class: table table-striped table-bordered table-hover"]
<thead> [TR]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]HOU @ GS(-13-115)[/TD]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]Rodney Mott[/TD]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]John Goble[/TD]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]James Capers[/TD]
[/TR]
</thead> <tbody> [TR]
[TD]Away Record(ATS)[/TD]
[TD]239-248 (49.08%)[/TD]
[TD]275-280 (49.55%)[/TD]
[TD]233-257 (47.55%)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Under Record[/TD]
[TD]243-241 (50.21%)[/TD]
[TD="class: success"]291-264 (52.43%)[/TD]
[TD]247-247 (50%)[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody> [/TABLE]


[TABLE="class: table table-striped table-bordered table-hover"]
<thead> [TR]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]DAL @ OKC(-13-110)[/TD]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]Bill Spooner[/TD]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]Dan Crawford[/TD]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]David Guthrie[/TD]
[/TR]
</thead> <tbody> [TR]
[TD]Away Record(ATS)[/TD]
[TD="class: success"]247-220 (52.89%)[/TD]
[TD]269-282 (48.82%)[/TD]
[TD]252-242 (51.01%)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Under Record[/TD]
[TD]240-221 (52.06%)[/TD]
[TD="class: success"]297-256 (53.71%)[/TD]
[TD="class: success"]267-231 (53.61%)[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody> [/TABLE]


[TABLE="class: table table-striped table-bordered table-hover"]
<thead> [TR]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]IND @ TOR(-7.5-110)[/TD]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]Monty McCutchen[/TD]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]Jason Phillips[/TD]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]Tony Brown[/TD]
[/TR]
</thead> <tbody> [TR]
[TD]Away Record(ATS)[/TD]
[TD]283-258 (52.31%)[/TD]
[TD]273-262 (51.03%)[/TD]
[TD="class: success"]278-249 (52.75%)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Under Record[/TD]
[TD]271-269 (50.19%)[/TD]
[TD]281-261 (51.85%)[/TD]
[TD]273-255 (51.7%)[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


67% of the money on the raps as well... may pass
 
[video=youtube;0K5p8Dv5tBo]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0K5p8Dv5tBo#action=share[/video]

Showing a "Top Ten Best Things About Indiana" on the Air Canada Centre's jumbotron during a first-quarter timeout, the Raptors had fun by mocking the state instead of actually listing positive things about it.

<header> LOOK: Raptors mock the state of Indiana in Game 1 against Pacers

By Ananth Pandian | NBA writer

<time class="storyDate" pubdate="" datetime="2016-04-16T17:26:55Z">April 16, 2016 1:26 pm ET</time>


</header> FULL FIRST-ROUND SCHEDULE | EXPERT BRACKETS
Wanting to give their fans an added incentive to cheer them on during Game 1 of their first-round series against the Pacers, the Toronto Raptors decided to mock the state of Indiana.
Showing a "Top Ten Best Things About Indiana" on the Air Canada Centre's jumbotron during a first-quarter timeout, the Raptors had fun by mocking the state instead of actually listing positive things about it.
While this is some good-natured fun, it is also some mean-spirited trash talking by the Raptors' video team. And it could backfire on them. This little video presentation will likely enrage the proud people of Indiana and can create an extremely antagonistic environment for the Raptors during Game three and four in Indianapolis. Making it even more difficult for the Raptors to get out of the first round, something they haven't done since 2001.




Wow. Whoever decided this was a good idea needs to be fired. Such poor taste.
 
[video]http://www.nba.com/raptors/video/teams/raptors/2016/04/18/1460996341745-NBA-WEB-160418-CASEY.mp4-455374[/video]
 
No. 1: Raptors not giving into the negativity — They know what it looks like, kicking off the postseason for the third straight time with a loss. It would be easy for the Toronto Raptors to give into the narrative, to get lost in the social media swirl surrounding them after their Game 1 loss to the Indiana Pacers. But they’re not going there. Heading into Game 2 tonight (7 p.m. ET, NBA TV) the Raptors still believe it’s “their turn,” as Ryan Wolstat of the Toronto Sun explains:
On his 59th birthday, Dwane Casey quoted Nas, saying sleep is the cousin of death. But the words of another rap legend, Tupac Shakur, sum up how the Raptors are feeling after another Game 1 meltdown — Me against the world.
On the heels of a third dreadful opening game effort in a row and a seventh-straight playoff defeat overall, it would be natural for the Raptors to feel like the walls are closing in around them, that the bandwagon is losing members at a rapid rate, that even the staunchest supporters are wondering whether another all too familiar let-down is on the verge of being delivered.
The players know what the vibe is, what was being said after the wobbly opener and chose to ignore it.
“I definitely didn’t go on social media because I know they were probably talking a lot of trash,” Kyle Lowry said with smile while up at the podium on a sunny Sunday afternoon in downtown Toronto.
Lowry and his teammates are looking at the bright side, honing in on the fact that this series is nowhere close to over, no matter what is being said about the underachieving group.
“I’m not shying away from it. It’s just at that point where it’s like, ‘all right, whatever.’ You know what? I know what everybody’s going to say: ‘Here we go again.’ I read everybody (including the media), there you go right there: That’s what they said,” Lowry said
Lowry insists the uproar and negativity on social media isn’t bothering him.
“No. That’s what it’s for. It’s for people to say their opinions. It’s for people to have an opinion. And that’s the world we live in. So I appreciate it, I love it, I mean I have my own opinion, I always comment on Twitter, I watch games, I say what I want to say. So that’s what it’s for. It’s for people to have a personality and have a voice. And you know, it’s part of the world. And for us, for me, I really just didn’t want to read it.”
Fellow all-star DeMar DeRozan loves the fanbase and having the entire country of Canada as potential backers, but wants the focus in the room to be on the brotherhood between the players and the staff alone.
“I don’t think we have (panicked) this time around,” DeRozan said.
“I think the outside people have. I’ve just been telling our guys, it’s all about us. It’s the guys in this jersey, the coaches, it’s one game. We understand what we have to do. We played terrible and still had a chance. We gave up 19, 20 turnovers, missed 12 free throws, we still had a chance. It’s a game. We’ve got another opportunity on our home floor to even it out. It wasn’t like we were going to go out there and sweep ’em. You know, that’s a tough team over there. Now it’s our turn to bounce back Monday.”
Head coach Dwane Casey said he didn’t tell his players to get off the likes of Twitter and Instragram, but is pretty sure ignoring the noise is a wise call.
“I just said you find out who your friends are, you’re going to find out real quick who your friends are, who’s calling for tickets and that type of thing when you’re backs are against the wall,” Casey said.
“And that’s good, you find out who’s pulling for you, who believes in you and who has your back. What I said is that group in that room is the ones that really have your back and the ones you should trust on the court. I did say that but I don’t know enough about social media to say anything about that.”

​
 
Looking at the Raps last two G2 efforts off a G1 loss

vs. Crooklyn '13-14
lost 87-94
won 100-95 ... +13 regulation team pts/+14 regulation game pts

vs. Washington '14-15
lost 82-82 (86-93 in OT)
lost 106-117 ... +24 regulation team pts/+59 regulation game pts

vs. Indiana '15-16
lost 90-100

Toronto's reg. season games @home vs. Indy were 106-99 & 111-98 wins, so the notion of their own scoring & the game scoring increasing by 10+ reg. pts here as per the previous 2 playoffs is supported by the reg. season results between these 2.
 
Was thinking we get an all out effort from the mavs and they hang all game but if they are not 100% healthy I won't touch it
 
dudleysdad said:
Was thinking we get an all out effort from the mavs and they hang all game but if they are not 100% healthy I won't touch it
Click to expand...

Would expect a better effort, right refs in play but the talent gap in this series is the 2nd biggest in the playoffs, biggest is obviously Spurs over Grizz.
 
Playoff teams off a loss do much better on 1 days rest than 2 in Round 1.

Since 2010,

Off a loss on 1 days rest = 63-46-4 ATS

Off a loss on 2 days rest = 38-50-1 ATS
 
Is probably the most lop-sided, one-way traffic opening round in the league's history,

but the 2nd Round onwards is gonna be pretty fucking good,

especially out West - only gonna take 3 weeks to get there, lol.

Will be worth the wait though.
 
pressitup said:
Don't we see many great players in college, during March? Where are they in the NBA?
Perhaps the money is too much for them to actually work at the game.

Jordan had a great talent, but look how he transformed his body from one season to the next. Knowing he had to be bigger/stronger to compete. Working free throws to the point he could shoot them with his eyes closed.
I saw Jordan when he played with the bullets in 01, after the shoot around, he stayed on the court and shot free throw after free throw. This was a guy icing his knees every time he went to the bench. Still practicing FT's.

Not sure the kids put the work in now. But what do I know.
Click to expand...
Do athletes these days know what work really is?
 
pressitup said:
Don't we see many great players in college, during March? Where are they in the NBA?
Perhaps the money is too much for them to actually work at the game.

Jordan had a great talent, but look how he transformed his body from one season to the next. Knowing he had to be bigger/stronger to compete. Working free throws to the point he could shoot them with his eyes closed.
I saw Jordan when he played with the bullets in 01, after the shoot around, he stayed on the court and shot free throw after free throw. This was a guy icing his knees every time he went to the bench. Still practicing FT's.

Not sure the kids put the work in now. But what do I know.
Click to expand...
Took me a while to find the quote I was thinking of, but this sums it up pretty well...

"It's going to take a lot better play from a lot of other players on this team and not just a one-man situation," said Jordan, who hurt his jaw diving on the floor in the fourth quarter. "It's very disappointing when a 40-year-old man has more desire than 25- or 26- or 23-year-old people. He's diving for a loose ball, he's busting his chin, he's doing everything he can to get his team into the playoffs. And it's not reciprocated from the other players on this team. That's very disappointing.

"I can look in the locker room and see a couple of guys who are willing to do those necessary things. But I can look and count on my fingers a lot more that won't do those things. And until those guys really let go of that macho and cool attitude and all of that and do the necessary things to play the game of basketball, it's going to be tough for Washington to make anything."

Jordan complained that while he is "doing everything I can to verbalize, as well as physically show what it takes to win," his teammates - all but one he had a hand in choosing as the club's former president of basketball operations - are not matching his effort.

"It's up to them to receive that and do the extra work and do the necessary things," Jordan said. "The disappointing thing is, if you make a mistake in October, you shouldn't be making the same mistake in March. You have to have some growth, you have to have some persistence and understanding for the game to make a change. We have too many players making the same mistakes in March that they made in October and it's going to make it very tough for this team to make the playoffs."

http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2003-03-10/sports/0303100011_1_jordan-played-stackhouse-wizards
 
GS total dropped from 218 to current 216.5. That's a sign that Curry is sitting. If he does play it'll jump back up. Wish there was a deadline where teams had to announce who's playing or not.
 
Amazing. MJ going balls out and the others not following. Punks.
nba is filled with dogs.
 
Comparing Indy's G1 win @Tor to their 2 losses at that venue in the reg. season, there's 3 critical categories of stats which paint in interesting picture.

Tor-Ind ..... Rebs .......... TO ............. 3-pt shooting %
90-100 ..... Tor +14 .... Ind +6 ..... Tor 21.0% v Ind 52.4%
111-98 ..... Tor +3 ...... Ind +7 ..... Tor 45.5% v Ind 29.6%
106-99 ..... Tor +10 .... Ind +7 ..... Tor 38.9% v Ind 39.1%

Nothing about the first 2 categories really changed from the reg. season meetings in G1, but there was a mammoth change in the difference between the outcomes from beyond the arc. Indy getting out rebounded but making up for that by being more careful with the ball has been a season long trend for meetings in Toronto. Their burying the Raptors from behind the arc was the outlier effort that made for G1's SU result.

Note: Indy shot an average of 35.1% from beyond the arc in the reg. season while Tor's D gave up 3's at a 37.1% clip, so it truly was an outlier result for Indy in G1.
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
Comparing Indy's G1 win @Tor to their 2 losses at that venue in the reg. season, there's 3 critical categories of stats which paint in interesting picture.

Tor-Ind ..... Rebs .......... TO ............. 3-pt shooting %
90-100 ..... Tor +14 .... Ind +6 ..... Tor 21.0% v Ind 52.4%
111-98 ..... Tor +3 ...... Ind +7 ..... Tor 45.5% v Ind 29.6%
106-99 ..... Tor +10 .... Ind +7 ..... Tor 38.9% v Ind 39.1%

Nothing about the first 2 categories really changed from the reg. season meetings in G1, but there was a mammoth change in the difference between the outcomes from beyond the arc. Indy getting out rebounded but making up for that by being more careful with the ball has been a season long trend for meetings in Toronto. Their burying the Raptors from behind the arc was the outlier effort that made for G1's SU result.

Note: Indy shot an average of 35.1% from beyond the arc in the reg. season while Tor's D gave up 3's at a 37.1% clip, so it truly was an outlier result for Indy in G1.
Click to expand...

Pacers 2-7 from downtown, Toronto 5-12

Key stat from G1 is going to opposite way here. I see no basis for confidence in Indy when they're -4 on the boards & the turnover situation is only +1 in their favour.
 
League has decided that Game 2 in OKC will be played to the Mavs advantage.

#ghostofstern
 
Stephen Curry (ankle) will be a game-time decision, but the Warriors will err on the side of caution.

In other words, Curry has to have a flawless warmup regarding his ankle. If he can't go, we'll see more Shaun Livingston.
 
next 3-4 mins crucial in Toronto: home team has the ability to kill Indy's effort if they increase their lead by another 2-3 buckets.
 
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