2015 Golf

[TheLaw4]

Time to fire up the 2015 thread after a few weeks off.

Two events this week: the South African Open in Joburg and the TOC in Hawai'i.

Only took a quick peek at TOC so far and nothing jumps out. Did make two small plays in South Africa.

Branden Grace -110 over Schwartzel 55/50
-Grace ended the year nicely, winning the Alfred Dunhill in mid December. Schwartzel had a forgettable 2014 and has been complaining of a toe injury coming into this week that is preventing him from shifting his weight completely. Worth a stab at this price

Trevor Fisher Jr +105 over Anders Hansen 50/52.50
-Fisher finished 7th here last year and is coming off a t4 at the Alfred Dunhill. Hansen has played poorly for a few months now, with no better than a t48 in his last six Euro starts dating back to July.

I'll be looking further into the PGA event leading up to Friday's start.

Let's have a great 2015.

 

[crawdads]

I have a couple strong leans for pga. Good luck this year.

 

[TheLaw4]

Thanks craw same to you.

 

[crawdads]

You show me yours and ill show you mine lol. Actually ill post my leans, was ogilvy over senden, then possibly zach johnson in a matchup. I want to spend a lot more time though before i lock in anything.

 

[TheLaw4]

Nothing is really popping out at me this week. The one that has a bit of my attention is Horschel over Mahan, but not sure I'll play it.

Ogilvy and Zach sure play well in Hawaii though.

 

[TheLaw4]

Slept on it. Changed my mind. Made some plays.

Day -120 over Bubba 90/75
Horschel -115 over Mahan 86.25/75

Good luck all.

 

[TheLaw4]

2-2 -13.75 this week. Horschel putted like shit today or it might have been a positive week.

Two nice events this week. Strong field in Abu Dhabi.

 

[TheLaw4]

Made three plays this week.

Leishman -115 over DeLaet 115/100
Hicks -120 over Guthrie 60/50

Hatton -130 over Uihlein 97.50/75

 

[TheLaw4]

Forgot one.

Kirk -105 over Matsuyama 52.50/50

 

[TheLaw4]

Experimenting with a 1st round play.

Piercy +115 over Knox 50/57.50

 

[TheLaw4]

Experiment part one lost by a stroke. Going to give it another go with a round 2 play.

Kokrak -120 over Barber 60/50

 

[TheLaw4]

Hatton with a nice final round to beat Uihlein. PGA ended yesterday for me with the Matsuyama MDF.

3-2-1 +115 this week.
YTD: 5-4-1 +101.25

 

[crawdads]

Nice week.

 

[TheLaw4]

Thanks craw.

Made one play on Euro Tour but wasn't around to post it. Not a whole lot jumps out to me on PGA this week, especially with the different format (54 hole cut, 3 courses, playing with amateurs).

Made two plays, both fading Phil. Could easily blow up in my face.

Palmer -130 over Phil 130/100
Bradley -105 over Phil 52.50/50

 

[TheLaw4]

Looks like I should have waited to put these in. Palmer moved 20+ cents

 

[crawdads]

Looks like I should have waited to put these in. Palmer moved 20+ cents

Crazy 9 holes by Palmer. #27 :cigarguy:

 

[TheLaw4]

1-1 +47.50 last week
YTD: 4-3-1 +148.75

Two PGA plays so far this week. May add one or two more and still looking over Euro card.

Koepka -120 over Mahan 120/100
Henley -115 over Moore 57.50/50

Really like Koepka this week. Course suits him well. Moore WD with bad neck last week, so this is a play due to that.

 

[crawdads]

I agree with your sentiments on Koepka, also I leaned hard on Henley. I saw this tweet and it made me think his injury wasnt that bad.

Todd Milles ‏@ManyHatsMilles <small class="time" style="font-size: 13px; color: rgb(136, 153, 166);"> Jan 24</small>
Ryan Moore (upper arm, neck) got therapy on-site, but still withdrew more as a precaution. Made way to Scottsdale later Saturday for WMO.

GL

 

[TheLaw4]

Thanks for passing along. Glad I went small on that, though it was more due to Moore's history here.

 

[Schrute]

Keep crushin

 

[TheLaw4]

Thanks Dwight.

Adding one in Dubai. Also really tempted to take Kaymer over Rory at his +200 but not worth it.

Johan Carlsson +115 over Henni Otto 100/115

 

[TheLaw4]

Not a good start to the week. Whiffed on the Euro play.

 

[TheLaw4]

Well I nailed the Koepka pick, and hit a nice future on him as well, but the rest was bad. Henley was tied with Moore going into Sunday before shooting +7 final round. The Euro pick was an early loser.

1-2 -57.50
YTD: 5-5-1 +91.25

Another nice field at Torrey this week.

 

[crawdads]

Brooks is the man. Best young American, been saying that for 2 years.

 

[TheLaw4]

I do remember having a convo with you about him a good time back. Now that he moved over to PGA full time, won't take long for everyone to notice

 

[TheLaw4]

Three small plays in Malaysia this week.

Wiesberger +120 over Westwood 50/60
Jaidee -125 over Aphibarnrat 62.50/50
Lipsky -120 over Higginbottom 60/50


Still looking over the Torrey card, not a whole lot jumping out to me.

 

[TheLaw4]

Two plays for the Farmers

Jason Day Top 20 -150 150/100
Koepka -115 over Phil 57.50/50

 

[TheLaw4]

4-1 +200 this week
9-6-1 +291.25 on the year

Nice event with Pebble Beach this week

 

[TheLaw4]

Patrick Reed Top 20 -140 140/100

 

[Schrute]

GL this week Law

 

[TheLaw4]

Watched maybe five minutes of coverage all last week, but looks like Reed was never real close.

9-7-1 +151.25

One play at Riviera.

Jimmy Walker -130 over Snedeker 195/150
-a lot to like here. Walker loves this course and is coming off a "disappointing" t21 last week. Sneds got his win last week to get him in the Masters so was already expecting letdown this week. Then today he WD from the pro-am with the flu.

 

[crawdads]

Fuck. I went big on walker over hideki. It was a mistake. Meant to put in vs sned. They won't void my bet, trying to decide if I hedge or let it ride. Fuck.

 

[crawdads]

What would you do?

 

[TheLaw4]

Damn. That's a tough one. I probably still lean with Walker but like both guys this week. If you hedge out looks like you'd only have to eat 10 cents if Hideki wins, so it could be worse.

 

[TheLaw4]

10-7-1 +301.25

Real nice field this week, but only came away with one full tourney play. Also playing some am/pm round 1s with some higher winds and rain coming in the afternoon.

Justin Rose -110 ov DJ 110/100

1st round:
Kirk EV ov Horschel 50/50
Henley +115 ov Schwartzel 50/57.50
Noh +120 ov Leishman 50/60

 

[B.A.R.]

Nice start to the year and GL this week.

 

[TheLaw4]

Thanks BAR

 

[crawdads]

Els has been awful. My 2 leans were fading him, and also taking hometown boy berger over poulter

 

[Schrute]

GL guys

 

[TheLaw4]

Yeah Ernie has been struggling. But this afternoon the whole field is. Only 6 guys from late tee times are under par.Love it.

 

[Canes1]

Hope you did well on your first rd bets. Only 4 under par in afternoon starts today. Crazy

 

[TheLaw4]

It was a positive result. 2-1 for +57.50. Leishman birdied 18, his only birdie of the day, to beat Noh by one. He scrambled his ass off today too.

I don't think the weather report is as bad for tomorrow but I'll be keeping an eye out.

 

[TheLaw4]

Only a few morning/afternoon matchups available tomorrow, but found one I like. Looks like the winds should pick up again in the afternoon.

Casey EV over Mickelson 75/75

 

[TheLaw4]

These weather delays aren't helping my cause

 

[crawdads]

Can't imagine taking rory over Dustin and being able to cash that ticket

 

[Canes1]

Was there today. Followed that group for awhile. Rory was pissed all day. Both sucked pretty bad

 

[TheLaw4]

I'll gladly cash my Rose over DJ ticket, which isn't a whole lot prettier.

 

[crawdads]

Els has been awful. My 2 leans were fading him, and also taking hometown boy berger over poulter

Smh. Oh well. Would have been a close one..

 

[Frank]

Rolling Stone article about Tiger http://www.rollingstone.com/culture/features/tiger-woods-stranger-than-fiction-20150303

 

[TheLaw4]

Ended up 3-2 +82.50 last week. +383.75 on the year.

Great event at Doral this week. Ended up with 5 plays worldwide, so keeping them smaller.

Sergio -125 over Rose 62.50/50
Kuchar -115 over Rose 57.50/50
-something seems off with Rose, not sure if his wrist is bugging him or what. So I'll take these two solid gentlemen here.

Donaldson -110 over Furyk 55/50
-Donaldson is my guy this week. He's my biggest future of the week as well.

Fowler +120 over Walker 50/60
-more of a gut feel. Walker has been decent lately and Fowler has been off his game. But Rickie plays well in events where he has to grind. Liked the price mostly.

Sterne -120 over Chris Wood 60/50
-one play on the Euro Tour. Wood is playing his first event in 5 months after breaking a bone in his wrist. Read he just started putting again a few weeks ago and built his way up to driver just recently. Hopefully there's some rust there.

Good luck this week.