2008 cfb - Time to post my week 1 card so far

[RetroVK]

It is the start of a new season for College football and I have been working pretty hard trying to get prepared for the upcoming season. Last year I had a decent season with my sides and hope to continue with that this season.

2007 cfb sides posted on CTG 39-29-2 ( 57.4%)

I struggled making money on totals last year due to my failure to adjust to rule changes and I hope to have more opportunities this year with totals than last year. There are again rule changes to adjust to this year.

I want to start my first "time to post" of 2008 by explaining what I hope to achieve with the thread. My desire is that I am able to share my knowledge of college football with you all and that I may have you share yours with me. The result should be that i help you to make more money and that you help me to make more money. In that regard, I want as much input as you are willing to share in my thread about any game that you wish to discuss. I do not frown upon contrarian views to my own in my thread as i think we tend to learn more on this site when we discuss our disagreements rather than our agreements. In other words , feel free to bash my plays , analysis and logic whenever you feel it is flawed. With strong opinions , I may rebuttal but I will certainly read and think about everything you guys add to my thread and i will appreciate your honesty and the time you put into making my thread better. If you were to go over my last years "time to post" threads you will see multiple occasions where input from others againts my initial leans were taken into consideration and at times influenced my betting or not betting of a game. I want to make that as clear as possible up front. I don't mind differing opinions than my own in here, "I am a man. I am 40 "( not yet but close enough ). With that said, all disagreements in my thread are to be conducted as adults. No bashing of me or others personally in here please , ... just bash the ideas.

I format my opening post a certain way.

The first area is for plays that i have locked in and this area shows the bets that i have made and often the date and book inwhich i made them.

The second area is for STRONG LEANS , which consists of several different groups of games. Within this list are games that i know i am going to bet but am waiting for some reason ( line move , weather report closer to game etc) , or games that i have a strong opinion on that fall just short of making a play for me at the beginning of the week. I study the games on this list the most throughout the week and hope to get information and angles from you guys that i hadnt considered myself. If i find something that just slightly alters my line enough in the right direction i can then bet it , and if i find something compelling enough to move my line the wrong direction to my lean then i can eliminate the game. Barring any change , i rarely play the game.

The third area is for TALK ME OFF LEANS . In this area i have a list of smaller leans that i am unlikely to play but a line move , coupled with new information might turn into a play. I don't think that a single talk me off lean made it to my card last year but the information that i garnered from discussing these games helped me down the line with other games involving them. We really had some good discussions.

The fourth area is my RECORD. This is where i track how the season has progressed.

All of these areas are in my first post of the thread ( except this opening thread ) and i will do my best to NEVER EDIT that post once the first game on my locked in plays list goes off. I strive for complete transparency and want anyone who looks back upon my season to know i was as forthright as possible. I did this very successfully this season in MLB and it is really easy to do. There is really not much reason for "plays posters" to edit their post after any of the games have started. As I add plays during the week i will edit the original post to show that as clearly as possible but if i play a thursday game and then add a game friday it will be represented in a post of its own and not in the original post. Transparency and credibility. I am in this for the money and if i lose while advocating to others my opinion , i can accept it like a man. Some years are better than others but i hope this will be a good one.

With all of that out of the way, I will proceed to post #2 and start my time to post threads for 2008 college football.

 

[B.A.R.]

Great introduction to the new members last year Kyle.

I remember last year as you were in your first year in our CFB forum, and what an asset you were. Definetely a must read for any one that is new here. I will tell you that VK has been the biggest asset(along with many others) to this CFB forum this summer. I was slow in preperation but Kyle was way ahead and has help so much. He takes this very seriously and is very dedicated. Def. a guy I will at some point in my life slam back 22 beers() with in Vegas..can't wait.

2007 cfb sides posted on CTG 39-29-2 ( 57.4%)

Thias tells you everything....70 plays on sides..I know he had totals...but he is disciplined enough and will garner information from the rest of us to shape up his card.

I wish you the best this season and I think it will be a great one.

Lets start off the opening week strong.

 

[RetroVK]

Here we go with week 1 ......

locked in:


bet# 156 wyoming -9.5 -110 ( CRIS ) added date of original post
bet# 145 Temple -4.5 -110 ( CRIS ) added date of original post
Bet# 165 TCU -5.5 -110 ( CRIS ) added date of original post
Bet# 189 Idaho +28 ( Leroy's ) added august 13
Bet# 127 UTEP moneyline +135 ( CRIS ) added august 21
bet# 177 hawaii + 35.5 ( CRIS ) added august 26
futures
cincinnati bearcats over 6.5 wins +105 ( currently 0-0 )
purdue boilermakers under 6.5 wins +110 ( currently 0-0 )

Strong leans

Utep +3 ( PLAYED august 21st on ml +135 )
S carolina -11 (eliminated august 22nd )
UAB +14 ( eliminated august 23rd )
Western michigan +14 ( eliminated august 23rd )
kentucky +4.5 ( eliminated august 23rd )
pittsburgh -12.5 ( eliminated august 23rd )
Fresno state +6 ( definitely playing waiting.hoping for line to rise )
hawaii +35 (moved to strong lean from TMOL aug 6 ) PLAYED august 26th at +35.5
idaho +28 (moved to strong lean from tmol aug 9 ) PLAYED AUGUST 13 AT +28
Wisconsin -26.5 ( moved to strong lean from tmol aug 9 ) (eliminated august 23rd )

Talk me off leans ( tmol )



utah +3.5 ( eliminated as possible play aug 6 )
oklahoma state -5 ( eliminated august 23rd )
ole miss -9.5 ( eliminated as possible play aug 8 )
mizzou -8.5 ( eliminated as possible play aug 8 )
mtsu +5 ( eliminated as possible play aug 5 )
tennessee -6.5 ( eliminated august 23rd )
wake forest -12.5 ( Eliminated as possible play august 19 )
stanford +3.5 ( Eliminated as possible play august 19)

 

[RetroVK]

Great introduction to the new members last year Kyle.

I remember last year as you were in your first year in our CFB forum, and what an asset you were. Definetely a must read for any one that is new here. I will tell you that VK has been the biggest asset(along with many others) to this CFB forum this summer. I was slow in preperation but Kyle was way ahead and has help so much. He takes this very seriously and is very dedicated. Def. a guy I will at some point in my life slam back 22 beers() with in Vegas..can't wait.



Thias tells you everything....70 plays on sides..I know he had totals...but he is disciplined enough and will garner information from the rest of us to shape up his card.

I wish you the best this season and I think it will be a great one.

Lets start off the opening week strong.

Thanks BAR

Hope we can make money as a forum this year. There are a lot of quality cfb cappers here. I started earlier this year than normal in preparation because I ended my baseball season earlier than normal.

LETS MAKE THE MONEY

 

[B.A.R.]

hawaii +32.5

Not that I disagree...

I have stated I will be playing the Florida team total hova. Unless it is absurd. This is like the Sugar Bowl. I can see the backdoor here for sure. We saw the Bows offense get something going later in that game. just wondering in the heat and humidity down there if they can sustain. Def a better number than the LVSC opener(27.5 I believe).<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->

 

[RetroVK]

First Writeup of the year ……here goes ……..

THE GAME : TCU AT NEW MEXICO

THE LINE : TCU -5.5

THE PLAY: TCU -5.5

LAST YEAR : NEW MEXICO 0 TCU 37

-First thing to note is that TCU has defeated new mexico each of the last 3 years since joining the mwc. They covered 5.5 points in each of those contests , winning by an average score of 37-16. The lone game at new mexico however ended 27-21.

-New Mexico is coming off of a season where they over-achieved and TCU is coming off a season where they under-achieved. I think this is one of the reasons we receive value in the line.

-What happened last year to tcu was very interesting. They began the year handling Baylor 21-0 , the game prior to their much anticipated game against texas. TCU led Texas 10-0 at halftime though their offense was being completely shut down by the longhorns. The game was tied at 10 after the third quarter and then a combination of turnovers , coupled with a tiring of the defense led to a blowout result in the fourth quarter. This was a very demoralizing loss. The next game , TCU traveled to Colorado springs for a game against air force. TCU completely dominated the game. Completely. But despite this they found a way to give up the lead late in the game and eventually lost in overtime. Demoralizing loss yet again , and their preseason vision of going to a bcs game was over 3 weeks into the year. The team was also going through a lot of injuries and off the field issues. Rumors of steroid use surrounded their star defensive lineman Tommy Blake and he missed several games with “personal issues” ( likely getting the roids out of his system ). When he returned he did not play as well as the player before the “personal issues”. In addition to this injury, the team was playing without their best offensive weapon in RB aaron brown. The result was that TCU was sluggish in the middle of the year until Patterson was able to right the ship and the team closed strong. 37 pt win over unm , just a 5 pt loss at byu , a 24 pt win vs. unlv , a 12 point win at sdsu and a Texas bowl victory over Houston 20-13. Have to be impressed with how this team responded down the stretch. They finished with an 8-5 mark and outgained opponents on average by a margin of 387 yds to 325 yards , and out first downed them 22.2 to 17.5. They suffered due to injuries , turnovers, off the field problems, early season motivation loss and some unfortunate bounces. They were better than they showed.

-New mexico was up and down a lot of the year. They finished 9-4 and I would argue they were the worst 9 win team in all of cfb last year. While they suffered a defeat to utep to start the year in a game in which they dominated , they managed to pull off miraculous victories in several games throughout the year. They were outplayed at SDSU in victory. The sdst qb rushed for a first down that would have put the Aztecs into victory formation but he fumbled on the play. UNM punched one in with under 20 seconds to go to win by 3, they then got uncharacteristic fumbling from air force ( 5) to win a game by 3 where they were outplayed. They then barely squeeked by a csu team by 3 where they were once again out first downed and out yardaged. Even their win over unlv wasn’t much to look at ( I know because I watched it ). They then went on to trounce Nevada in their bowl game which they were fortunate enough to play in their home stadium for. Hats off to Rocky Long for getting that much out of that talent.

-Last years game was nothing short of domination between these two teams.
First downs -----TCU 23 UNM 6
Rushing yards ..TCU 238 UNM 28
Passing yards …TCU 183 UNM 91

So with perspective , lets look at this years match up.

TCU Offense vs. UNM Defense

O-line vs. D-line --I think a pleasant surprise down the stretch last year for TCU was the development of the offensive line and a more productive rushing attack.

-The offensive line for TCU weighs in at about 295-296 pounds per player and the UNM d-line comes in at about 283 per player. Both of these are fairly normal , so TCU does not have a dominant size edge or deficiency vs. unm.

-New mexico plays a 3-3-5 defense and a lot of the rush defense is based upon linebackers pursuing to the ball. TCU played vs. 3 down lineman systems several times last year and thrived against it. I already mentioned the new mexico game from last year. They also played the following teams and had balanced success least year offensively vs. 3 down linemen , Air Force , Wyoming , Houston and BYU. They were exceptional in pass protection vs. these systems as well. They were sacked just 8 times in those 5 games, including ZERO by unm last year. They attempted 173 passes combined … a sack every 34.6 times they dropped back to pass. Their season average was 1 sack every 19.3 pass attempts. They prefer to scheme protection against 3DL as opposed to 4DL. This trend is true of 2006 as well, where they also had better pass protection vs. 3 DL, and amazingly UNM had ZERO sacks against TCU that year as well.

-This year TCU returns 4 starters to the ol from a year ago with 52 combined starts from last year attributed to these guys. As mentioned above , they improved down the stretch last year and they are said to have increased their strength year over year. RG Montgomery alone increased his size by almost ten pounds over last year. Very experienced offensive line , which not only has room for improvement but showed making those strides last year.

-The New Mexico defensive line is the opposite of the tcu o-line. They return one fulltime starter and just 59 tackles from last years unit. The two starters that they field at the two DE positions have ZERO combined starts lifetime and both are upperclassmen. Not a good sign. In addition , they lose their big disruptor up front from last year in Tyler Donovan. Donovan has twice as many tackles for loss as the next nearest lobo and was also the leading sack man. The defensive line returns 2.5 sacks from last years team. In fact the only experienced guy on the dl is the nose tackle who has just 1 sack in his 20 starts at UNM. The defense is not designed for NT sacks because the DL is mainly meant for leverage in this system but that is pretty amazing.

-The conclusion on this matchup is that the experience and talent level of the TCU o-line , should have a distinct advantage over the UNM inexperienced line ( especially in the first game of the year ) and this should most blatantly be visible in the pass protection.

TCU RB VS UNM LINEBACKERS

I could have lumped this in with the line matchups but as most of you know , it is the trenches where I think football games are won and lost and I wanted to emphasize that in my first writeup of the year.\

-TCU finally has a healthy Aaron Brown to hand the ball off to. After sharing half the carries in 2006 he averaged over 5 a carry and rushed for over 800 yards. Team was ready for a breakout season from him last year but he was hindered by injuries and managed just 106 carries. That really hurt this team last year but it also helps them for this year. Turner emerged as a quality back and they now have incredible depth and experience at the position with 3 different RB getting over 50 carries last year. They have additional depth from backup WR Ryan Christian who started a game at rb for them last year and carried the ball 88 times. Turner who showed promise last year , hurt his knee . At the time of this writing I am not sure of his status for the game but have capped it out as if he wont be playing. Aaron Brown will be the workhorse. It should also be noted that Dalton is a very underrated as far as his mobility and you could also see him pick up some yards with his legs as well. It should also be noted that there are some rumors floating around concerning aaron browns status with the team but I havent seen anything to confirm that and am assuming he will be available. If nto atleast they have quality depth this year.

-UNM linebacking appears adequate to me. Mcpeek/clark combo at the hybrid position of the 3-3-5 are both solid players. Since most people consider these glorified safeties ( BAN ,MINER, LOBO whatever ) as linebackers , I will as well. At the more conventional line backing spots the lobos return just 2 starts from last year but they do return 96 tackles to the starting unit from last year. One of the main concerns will be sophomore with one career tackle. The other concern is that this is one of the smallest line backing groups in the entire nation. The lobo defensive line is huge , designed to create leverage at the line of scrimmage while the linebackers pursue to the ball. Not only does the front seven of the lobos lose 3 of their top 5 tacklers but with mcpeek back but since mcpeek and clark don’t rate to be on the field much at the same time , they also lose a tackler in that regard. Just too small a line backing unit , replacing too many fulltime starters and expecting them to gel into the type of unit that can compete with the tCU talent of the world , in their first game together seems difficult. Have a much better chance of gelling against a lesser talent team like sdsu , buffalo , uab etc etc . Throw in the fact that they lose their DC in lewis this year to Utep , who was the mastermind of their defensive system and I look for an overall step backwards for the run defense this year for UNM that should be at its worst of the year at the beginning of the season. Perhaps not the right section to mention this in but the lobos will regress in EVERY one of the major three defensive categories this year because of their front seven. Opposition Scoring , rushing offense and passing offensive numbers are going way up this year.

TCU QB AND WR VS UNM SECONDARY

QB --Andy Dalton had one of the most overlooked red shirt freshman seasons of the year in 2007 , imo. He set TCU completion record despite the backup qb stealing 69 pass attempts from him at different points in the year. Very impressive for a first year starter. He rates to improve this year with more experience and with a better offensive line and a better receiving group to work with , coupled with a superior rush attack year over year …. Looks like he could have an enormous season. He is an elusive tackle in the backfield and his feet got him over 400 yards ont eh ground last year in under a hundread attempts. He did lack consistency last year and some of his untimely interceptions led to TCU’s problem all year of racking up yards but failing to finish with TD. A regression by the QB position here would be one of the most shocking regressions of the year. In the event of injury , the backup Jackson did get some snaps and pass attempts in last year and had an additional 44 pass attempts in 2006. So while an injury here would hurt them it would not be as devastating as you might think

WR--For TCU backers this unit and how it matches up against UNM is the question mark that you should be most afraid of in this game. They lose both of their leading receivers last year in Dickerson (graduation) and Massey (grades ). Those two guys combined for 69 grabs a year ago. Jpicks provided me with some information concerning the depth chart now that Massey will not be available (thanks mwc whore). Bryant , Young and Kerley/johnson should be the group though others will get starts and snaps. I don’t have the confidence at this point in the offseason to guarantee those starters either. This set of receivers is more athletic and explosive but lack a lot of experience. The wr group as a whole returns roughly 75-80 catches from a year ago and I would not expect this unit to be close to its best the first game of the year. They do have the second best receiving (byu pitta ) tight end in the league in Reagan which should really help Dalton out , especially against this particular defense. The running game should be good and the pass protection should be good , how open these receivers can get against new mexico is a very big question.

UNM secondary --Deandre Wright is the best cover corner in the mwc ( sorry utes fans ) and Senior Quin on the other corner has talent as well. I think Wright should have little problem containing the number one option of the tcu pass attack at wr …. If there was one. The TCU pass attack should be very balanced so the shutdown ability doesn’t help them as much as against some other teams. But TCU and Dalton won’t be looking to beat Wright , and that allows the remainder of the new mexico secondary to rotate to the other side of the field for pass defense as well as to allow for more men to work in run support and pass rush duties. His presence is very helpful to the UNM defense… very similar to what Aqib Talib allowed Kansas to do last year defensively. The safeties return one full time starter and another upperclassman who has seen his share of action. All in all this lobo secondary seems to match up decently with the TCU receivers.

WHAT TO EXPECT

TCU rushed the ball for 238 yards a year ago and I would expect that with an experienced offensive line that TCU attacks with the run game as the primary foundation. Without the penetrating , attacking style of their best player in the front seven last year and basically two inexperienced DE , the frogs should have an effective time reaching the second level of the lobo defense. There is absolutely no reason to believe that TCU does not win the battle at the line of scrimmage on this side of the ball and Dalton should have a lot of time to throw the football. The young athletic receivers should be able to have some success vs. the unm secondary as long as Dalton has developed enough to not throw into coverage packages. This TCU team really matured offensively down the stretch and it is also the time that these younger receivers began to shine a little bit for the frogs. They averaged 427 yards of offense per game and 25.6 first downs per game over the last seven , including their bowl game. 5 returning starters to this somewhat unique style of defense for new mexico and the architect of that defense Osia Lewis is gone to UTEP ( a subject I will get into later regarding this UNM team ). This should mean a more difficult learning curve for the new defensive starters. The offensive core of TCU is back while UNM goes from returning 10 defensive starters last year , to just 5 this year. Look for TCU to both ground out first downs and occasionally hit the receivers for decent chunks of yardage , and also look for play action pass to set up some nice looks for the TE reagan.

UNM offense vs. TCU defense

O-line vs. D-line. As I have stated ad nauseam , the trenches are where games are won and lost for the most part. New Mexico is going to have to rely on a bunch of juco guys and some inexperienced guys to gel together quickly if they are to get the job done. It gets even worse for them in that they have just 14 returning starts to the offensive line and 9 of those are from Center erik cook. The concern here is that his 9 previous starts were at tackle and guard. This will be his first start at center. The remaining five starts are from LT hatten who has some power at that position returns after he was suspended a year ago for missing a practice without an excuse ( more to it I am sure ). The word out of the spring was that juco Contreras might be ok for the center duties which would allow Cook to play his more conventional positions , at 6-6 , porterie probably would like to look over the top of someone else. This is one of those areas that you need to be careful of when reading your phil steele magazine , as his projections for the offensive line are just that … projections and there could be a lot of movement on this line. I would be surprised to see Cannon start the opening game against tcu at left guard. The fact that they have not solidified who is playing where , especially at the center position makes cohesiveness even more difficult for them. No matter who starts where , they will be a big unit that will average out to about 308 pounds per player. The losses for UNM on the offensive line are just too much for them to overcome with these players this early in the season. They have to replace not only 50 o-line starts from a year ago but replace two first team mwc players , one of which is in the nfl now. Potential to be good later in the year , I think, but impossible to expect them to be prepared for this one.
Tcu must also replace two big time defensive ends in tommy blake and chase Ortiz who is now with the browns. The combo is difficult to replace but tcu looks to have reloaded across the defensive line. Panfil started 6 games last year while blake was taking care of his “personal issues” (I already told you what is suspected of going on there ) and quite frankly he performed well above expectations with 37 tackles , 2.5 sacks. What is really good news is that the depth of talent behind Panfil at this spot is astounding. TCU will continue to produce nfl quality DL for years to come I think. The other end , Hughes has good speed and also diagnoses plays well. The biggest strength (outside of LB ) of the entire TCU football team is their defensive tackles/NT. Vess returns from a suspension for something lol… here is an exerpt from blue ribbon concerning him …

the return of senior James Vess (6-3, 282) from a season-long suspension for a violation of university policy. As for what the violation was, perhaps no program in the country is more tight-lipped about such information as TCU.
Whatever the reason for his departure a year ago, Vess is a big-time nose tackle that should vie for all-conference honors. As a sophomore in 2006, he tallied four sacks in the final seven games and twice in that span was chosen TCU Defensive Player of the Week.

In his absence Griffin obtained a lot of experience and allows for depth in case Vess or DT cody moore were to get hurt as well as spelling them at times. Moore is the other tackle and just as sound as you could want at that position. This line is absolutely LOADED with talent. In fact , despite my projections at the two DE positions , the young talent is so good , that either one of those two excellent DE could be second string come the end of august. This is the best DL in the MWC and it would be hard to imagine that a group of juco players and inexperienced players at UNM could come together in time to be cohesive enough to contain them. It is this matchup , most of all that makes TCU look so good to me in this game.

UNM RB VS TCU LINEBACKERS

Have to love the running back situation if you are a lobo fan. Rodney Ferguson is coming off back to back first team mwc seasons and emerging late last year was Paul Baker. I would not be surprised to see UNM use more two back sets this year than in the previous few years , despite OC Baldwin love for the one back sets. With breaking in a new offensive line and having a quality blocking fullback at their disposal , the lobos may have more two back two receiver sets than last year. With the quality and depth at this position , you would think that Rocky Long leans heavily on the rush game again this year and I would expect them to average over 40 rushes a game. You have to keep in mind that ferguson had been running behind some pretty decent lines the last few years in Albuquerque and those holes just won’t be there to start this year unless the line has come together incredibly fast. Ferguson is also a good option out of the backfield.
Here is the problem. We have already discussed how TCU matches up with the offensive line of UNM and the linebackers that sit behind that DL are considered as a unit to be in the top 10 to 15 in the country by those that consider hodge more of a linebacker than safety and by those that consider it a two linebacker system with a third quality linebacker off the field. Phillips and henson are the projected starters and Washington will spell them in certain situations. All three are of incredible quality. The above mentioned Hodge is mult-talented and used heavily in TCU blitz packages and is listed as a strong safety. Whether you consider him a safety or a linebacker , you have to consider him a quality run supporter and a quality pass rusher. The best linebacking corps in the entire conference as well. As you can see , TCU has a formidable front seven that is the cornerstone of the best defense in the conference. To make matters worse for Ferguson is that Patterson is simply a master at foiling rush attacks. This has been the case at TCU for years and years now , since he took over the program. I have often been quoted as saying “you can’t run on tcu”.

UNM QB AND WR VS TCU SECONDARY

Porterie returns at qb for new mexico and he is adequate but hardly a guy that impressed me a lot last year. I was able to watch many a UNM game as it turns out and I think this guy can be flustered by pass rush early in the game. To his credit he had a decent td/int ratio and threw for a lot of yards last year in his first full season as a starter. But his supporting cast ( while I think it was a bit overrated last year ) was much better. We have already discussed the step backwards they rate to have in protection , and the fact that ferguson is a skillful back but what will just kill porterie this year is the loss of WR from 2007. Two of the three starting wide receivers from last year made first team all mwc and both are now on nfl rosters. They lose 167 catches and 2156 yards receiving from those two guys. Impossible to replace that. Their three projected starters for this year have just 29 catches and 230 receiving yards. This is one of the largest regressions year over year in receiving units that you will ever see. With little actual game time experience together , and with porterie having less time than average to throw , it is hard to fathom a ton of success in the passing game for this team. Also , since I believe that UNM will consistently be working from behind the chains, the situations in which they will be passing will not be ideal.
TCU counters the inexperience on the outside for UNM with two incredibly experienced juniors at CB. Both priest and sanders have started since their freshaman years and have a combined 52 starts at CB. Big advantage to the horned frogs here. They have a mixture of experience and youth at safety and it is clearly the weakest spot on the field for them , no matter what you consider hodge to be.

WHAT TO EXPECT

Well, I would expect nothing less than complete defensive domination from TCU. This TCU defense is going to be tough for fine oiled machines to move the ball against without a single glaring weakness to exploit outside of secondary depth. With the state of unm receiving unit , that seems unlikely here. TCU rates to be in the backfield ALL day long for negative plays against this UNM club. There is no way that a lobo offensive line can generate a running attack against this TCU front seven with a makeshift line with little to no experience and at this point without even knowing which player is at which position. Contreras or cook at center ?? Cook or cannon at guard , etc etc…. how could they possibly be prepared for what TCU brings to the table as far as defensive schemes are concerned ?? UNM mustered 6 first downs with a better offensive line and two nfl caliber wr last year against this team. I cannot figure out how new mexico gets first downs. In order for it to occur the new mexico line would not only have to mature faster than any of us could imagine but it would also have to achieve well beyond its projected talent level vs. the best defensive line the conference has to offer in my estimation. In addition , it is too much to ask for this unm receiving group to punish TCU either. Just an incredible disparity of experience and talent between the lobo offense and the TCU defense and while that disparity will be closed by seasons end , it will be most noticeable here in the first week.

SPECIAL TEAMS AND COACHING

Both TCU and UNM lose a lot in their special teams and for the most part I have to call this a wash until I see what the new kickers and returners ( risk brown? ) have to show for themselves. The one advantage that TCU carries into this area of the game is that Daryl Washington is the best kick blocker in all of college football.

COACHING

I am sure most consider patterson to be a better coach than rocky long but Long has been just tremendous in exceeding expectations in Albuquerque. The lobos do have to replace Lewis at DC and while Reffet has been with the team for awhile now it has to be considered a slight edge to tcu in that capacity.

INTANGILES

-While most don’t think of it right away , Albuquerque is at 5300 feet roughly and that is something that does have the ability to effect incoming teams from texas.
-UNM is in the midst of some offseason turmoil. The defensive coordinator was let go amid academic fraud allegations. It has been an ongoing issue the entire offseason to date.
-TCU has avoided major offseason issues that plagued them last year other than Massey failing to keep his grades up
-TCU is coming off an underachieving year , in which a slow start contributed to motivational issues a year ago. New mexico is coming off an overachieving year.
-TCU was given the option of either playing this conference game at the end of august or November 29<SUP>th</SUP>. Given the youth and inexperience of unm, patterson and the frogs selected the earliest date possible.
-TCU under patterson , plays incredible football on the road. They are 25-16 straight up on the road and they played well in every single road game a year ago , save Wyoming where they suffered a 3 point loss
-TCU has only been out first downed one time outside the state of Texas in the last two years ( ironically to new mexico in 2006 13-15 ) in a total of 11 games.



Final conclusion -- TCU has all the necessary tools to match up and handle this unm team. TCU rates to be able to run the ball and pass protect , setting up manageable situations for Dalton to hit his receivers and TE . The Frogs need only to manage the football offensively to get the cover here. New Mexico simply should not be able to move the ball with any success against this TCU defense with a slapped together offensive line and green receiving crew. Porterie while he should be improved as a qb , has shown the ability to get flustered by good pass rushes and with TCU in the backfield all game and no stud receivers to bail him out, he is more likely to make errors in this game than any other game on their schedule. Given the frogs past history with this team I would not expect them to be looking ahead to their home contest with TAMU ( a much easier spot for unm ) but it is far more likely than TCU not being ready here. I say TCU big in this one ……….TCU 30 UNM 10

 

[B.A.R.]

Could you explain more please?

LOL

You have given me something to think about.

UNM is one of my.."I hate teams" so I basically brished this game aside.

I have sumtin to look at now.

 

[RetroVK]

Not that I disagree...

I have stated I will be playing the Florida team total hova. Unless it is absurd. This is like the Sugar Bowl. I can see the backdoor here for sure. We saw the Bows offense get something going later in that game. just wondering in the heat and humidity down there if they can sustain. Def a better number than the LVSC opener(27.5 I believe).<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->

Yeah , looks like graunke is out maybe ?? that would kill the play right there.

I have also stated interest in the florida team total and it will be interesting to see what it is posted at. Certainly believe if you like florida to cover this spread ( which it seems like everyone does ) that betting the florida team total is the safer way to go.

I am aslo on record as saying this line does not make any sense at all in relation to the other large lined games .... auburn , kansas , wiscy , etc

If this thing somehow keeps rising and hits 35 there is no way i can not bet i dont think.

 

[B.A.R.]

Yeah , looks like graunke is out maybe ?? that would kill the play right there.

I have also stated interest in the florida team total and it will be interesting to see what it is posted at. Certainly believe if you like florida to cover this spread ( which it seems like everyone does ) that betting the florida team total is the safer way to go.

I am aslo on record as saying this line does not make any sense at all in relation to the other large lined games .... auburn , kansas , wiscy , etc

If this thing somehow keeps rising and hits 35 there is no way i can not bet i dont think.

Gotcha,

have heard no Graunke news..whats up?

 

[~Utah]

Man you are way ahead of me, Ive only checked out the lines breifly and ive just been reading up. Not very good at CFB, if it wasnt for 13-1 weekend at the end of the season and a Pitt moneyline against WVU, I would have had a terrible year. Im looking forward to getting some great insight from you VK, god knows I need it.

BTW, I havent seen anything about Grauke being officially dismissed.

What ive heard is that he is academically ineligible, and he might not play all year, but he might play every game of the year. Graunke or not, Hawaii is a system. June Jones is gone, but the system isnt and neither are a lot of the players that were in it. Georgia was a HOT team last year, probably at the end of the year the best team. I take that blowout with a grai nof salt. Even so Georgia at the level they were playing at beat Hawaii by 31. A lot of people are all over Florida, im one of those guys that thinks whenever I see that everyone likes one side and doesnt see it losing, it usually does in fact lose. The only thing I hate about Florida is Urban Meyer runs the score up and he makes no issue of hiding it. Maybe Hawaii hangs in there, but eventually Florida pulls away and covers? Seriously I can see Tebow in there with 10 seconds go and there up 25

 

[RetroVK]

The word on Graunke came from Hawaiiguy and i havent seen anything to confirm it yet. I am sure we will know the answer to that question long before kickoff. If he is out , it will be a no play for me though.

Otherwise a continued rise in the line may mean a bet. hehe 5 td ?

I don't think urban meyer leaves tebow in at all in the case of a blowout. Keep in mind that it was the fact that Tebow was banged up last year that contributed to both their loss to georgia and to the wolverines in the capital one bowl. I thnik he tries to get tebow through the game with as few hits as possible. If Meyer is smart , Tebow does not get to 1000 yards rushing this year and with the heisman in the bag already , I think he can look team first a lot more this season than he might otherwise. Of course , floridas backup could come in and run it up too ....

 

[~Utah]

Tebow wont come close to a G this year. Im pretty sure they said they are more commited to running the ball with a running back this year and not putting Tebow in the face of linebackers ready to lay him out.

But anyway, Tebow or not, Meyers likes to run the score up. So that would worry me (If i were you). I actually never take games with bigger spreads then 20 in most cases unless I feel really strongly, no chance I touch this game.

I dont think ill ever forget the Pitt-Utah game in the Feista Bowl. The game is over, we lost, its a blowout, the guy is throwing the ball 20 yards down the feild with less then 2 minutes to go...fucking prick.

Anyway GL

 

[E.T.G.]

Its about time you posted this



Ditto on Wyoming/Temple (some info below on DiMichele's rehab)

Question No. 1 - Is Adam DiMichele ready to resume his role as the Owls' starting quarterback and team leader after he sustained a season-ending injury to his left shin bone last October?

Answer: To quote the Magic 8 ball, all signs point to yes.

Yes, there's no question DiMichele's injury was a painful one. The hit that Miami(OH) linebacker Clayton Mullins put on the 6-foot-1 junior on a naked bootleg play bent his left leg awkwardly and sent him to the Lincoln Financial Field turf with a comminuted fracture of his left tibia during the second quarter of what would become a 24-17 Temple win over the RedHawks.

A comminuted fracture is one in which the bone is broken in several places. Team physician Dr. Ray Moyer performed successful surgery the following morning. DiMichele said in an interview with OwlScoop.com back in October that Moyer inserted a rod into his tibia during the surgery. To do it, Moyer made two incisions in DiMichele's left leg – at the top of his knee where he had to move DiMichele's kneecap, and at the bottom to insert screws into his ankle.

DiMichele was told at the time that because he was between the ages of 20 and 24 (he turned 23 last Saturday) that there was a good chance that his left shin bone could heal back stronger than it was.


<!--Start DiMichele SS preseason camp Image--><SCRIPT language=Javascript>document.write(insertImage('http://vmedia.rivals.com/uploads/1018/557239.jpg', '557239.jpg', 0, 267, 200, 1, 'Quarterback Adam DiMichele has been rehabbing his broken left shin bone for the past nine months.', 'Max Levine', 1217621162000, 'DiMichele SS preseason camp', 1018, 'Align=Left'));</SCRIPT><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=208 align=left border=0><TBODY><TR><TD width=202>

</TD><TD width=6 rowSpan=4>

</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>Max Levine</TD></TR><TR><TD height=3>

</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle>Quarterback Adam DiMichele has been rehabbing his broken left shin bone for the past nine months.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- End DiMichele SS preseason camp Image-->The good news is that DiMichele has not experienced any major setbacks in his nine months of rehabilitation. He's participated in non-contact, 7-on-7 drills. And unless he does experience some sort of setback, DiMichele will be under center when the Owls open their season at West Point.

Will DiMichele have to fight through the initial butterflies of avoiding the rush, getting hit and managing a game all over again when he returns this season? Certainly.

But consider that when DiMichele was lost for the season last fall, he left at the top of his game. Before Mullins hit him, DiMichele had completed all four of his passes and scored on a 1-yard quarterback sneak. The week prior, DiMichele threw three fourth quarter touchdown passes to lift Temple to a come-from-behind, 24-20 win at Akron. He completed 61.9 percent of his passes for 1,595 yards, 12 touchdowns and 10 interceptions and rushed for 110 yards and two touchdowns in eight games.

And don't forget that unlike 2007, DiMichele enters this season with the prospect of having a capable ground attack to take some of the pressure off his right arm and his legs.




I have not had a chance to read your TCU write-up so I will get to that later, have to set aside about 30 minutes to respond =)



Strong leans

Utep +3 - you've already stated your case for this game, understand your side of it,
S carolina -11.5 - we'll talk about this once the OL puts pads on
UAB +14 - already discussed this game
Stanford +4 - Popular play around here, line is def higher than everyone thought it would be as well. Looks solid from the information I've read from everyone
Wake forest -12.5 - wish the spread was a little lower, like 10.
Western michigan +13.5 - I think they can certainly hang around
kentucky +5 - They have enough talent on defense to keep them in this game.
pittsburgh -12 - Lean of mine as well just need to do more research here.
Fresno state +6 - I know Fresno will be pumped to the grills but Shiano is great coach and RU will be prepared. If Kordell Young is running around at 100%, they will have a running game to compliment their passing game, kid is talented.


Talk me off leans

Wisconsin -26.5
Idaho +28
utah +5 - How good do you think the Mich offense will be. How do you prepare your defense for the Mich offense if you are Utah?
oklahoma state -5 - This is a lean of mine, the only thing keeping me off is Cowboys road record under Gundy. Can we trust him? They sure have the offensive skill players, WSU switching to a new no-huddle spread w/ new QB and the defense was bad last year.
ole miss -8.5
mizzou -8
mtsu +5 - Believe Troy, who has the top 2 OL/DL in the conference and a good secondary, has too much speed for MTSU. True, they have to replace outstanding QB-RB-WR but this is not a school short on talent. Their speed on defense should help contain the mobile Sophomore in Gee
tennessee -7 - I need to be talked off this one as well
hawaii +32.5 - UF team total!

 

[Blue_Chip]

I'm not going to talk you off of Ole Miss, especially if that line continues to drop, but I wanted to ask you why did the SMU/Rice game not make your list of leans?

 

[lindetrain]

Man VK, I don't know what the deal is, but I like the opposite side of almost all your leans. As much as we may have seen eye-to-eye last year, we sure as hell aren't this year so far.

 

[tru]

great writeup on tha tcu game. gl week 1 an all season long. we will be different on plays much of tha season im sure, but im sure we both will be happy how tha season was

 

[RetroVK]

great writeup on tha tcu game. gl week 1 an all season long. we will be different on plays much of tha season im sure, but im sure we both will be happy how tha season was

yeah , i know you like ucla and ncstate ........ admit it.

 

[tru]

ucla yes ncst no strong lean to sc

 

[RetroVK]

I'm not going to talk you off of Ole Miss, especially if that line continues to drop, but I wanted to ask you why did the SMU/Rice game not make your list of leans?

I think the line is fairly dead on for the rice game. Gun to my head i go with rice and clement/dillard at home. When i first started looking at this game, i thought it was an extremely tough spot for a team learning new systems but the offensive system that smu played last year isn't really THAT far off from what jones will employ. Rice should have the advantage offensively but smu rushed for over 300 last year against them and that is a concern. SMU was ahead over 2td in the fourth quarter and allowed rice to comeback in that game for the win , creating an ugly revenge spot ,,,, though revenge matters slightly less with new coach. Throw in the fact that two of rice's td in that game were intereception returns for scores as well. For those of you playing RICE , you have to admit you will be doing it while holding your nose .... I think they probably have the worst defense in conference USA and that is saying something. Against FBS opponents last year the best game their defense had was holding s miss to 29 points .... and smiss had 7 turnovers in that game. Not a fan of laying points with those kind of defenses in general though i have before at certain times while holding my nose.

Would be rice if i had to , but i dont have to and i could see either team winning this one.

 

[RetroVK]

Man VK, I don't know what the deal is, but I like the opposite side of almost all your leans. As much as we may have seen eye-to-eye last year, we sure as hell aren't this year so far.

Start with one of the games you disagree on and tell me why , save me some money. Just don't pick the utep game ... i am playing that one for sure. probably on the moneyline. all the money has been coming in on buffalo though , so i am waiting as i might be able to get a better number. Pick one of them and tell me why you like the other side lind.

 

[RetroVK]

Its about time you posted this



Ditto on Wyoming/Temple (some info below on DiMichele's rehab)

Question No. 1 - Is Adam DiMichele ready to resume his role as the Owls' starting quarterback and team leader after he sustained a season-ending injury to his left shin bone last October?

Answer: To quote the Magic 8 ball, all signs point to yes.

Yes, there's no question DiMichele's injury was a painful one. The hit that Miami(OH) linebacker Clayton Mullins put on the 6-foot-1 junior on a naked bootleg play bent his left leg awkwardly and sent him to the Lincoln Financial Field turf with a comminuted fracture of his left tibia during the second quarter of what would become a 24-17 Temple win over the RedHawks.

A comminuted fracture is one in which the bone is broken in several places. Team physician Dr. Ray Moyer performed successful surgery the following morning. DiMichele said in an interview with OwlScoop.com back in October that Moyer inserted a rod into his tibia during the surgery. To do it, Moyer made two incisions in DiMichele's left leg – at the top of his knee where he had to move DiMichele's kneecap, and at the bottom to insert screws into his ankle.

DiMichele was told at the time that because he was between the ages of 20 and 24 (he turned 23 last Saturday) that there was a good chance that his left shin bone could heal back stronger than it was.


<!--Start DiMichele SS preseason camp Image--><SCRIPT language=Javascript>document.write(insertImage('http://vmedia.rivals.com/uploads/1018/557239.jpg', '557239.jpg', 0, 267, 200, 1, 'Quarterback Adam DiMichele has been rehabbing his broken left shin bone for the past nine months.', 'Max Levine', 1217621162000, 'DiMichele SS preseason camp', 1018, 'Align=Left'));</SCRIPT><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=208 align=left border=0><TBODY><TR><TD width=202>

</TD><TD width=6 rowSpan=4>

</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>Max Levine</TD></TR><TR><TD height=3>

</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle>Quarterback Adam DiMichele has been rehabbing his broken left shin bone for the past nine months.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- End DiMichele SS preseason camp Image-->The good news is that DiMichele has not experienced any major setbacks in his nine months of rehabilitation. He's participated in non-contact, 7-on-7 drills. And unless he does experience some sort of setback, DiMichele will be under center when the Owls open their season at West Point.

Will DiMichele have to fight through the initial butterflies of avoiding the rush, getting hit and managing a game all over again when he returns this season? Certainly.

But consider that when DiMichele was lost for the season last fall, he left at the top of his game. Before Mullins hit him, DiMichele had completed all four of his passes and scored on a 1-yard quarterback sneak. The week prior, DiMichele threw three fourth quarter touchdown passes to lift Temple to a come-from-behind, 24-20 win at Akron. He completed 61.9 percent of his passes for 1,595 yards, 12 touchdowns and 10 interceptions and rushed for 110 yards and two touchdowns in eight games.

And don't forget that unlike 2007, DiMichele enters this season with the prospect of having a capable ground attack to take some of the pressure off his right arm and his legs.




I have not had a chance to read your TCU write-up so I will get to that later, have to set aside about 30 minutes to respond =)



Strong leans

Utep +3 - you've already stated your case for this game, understand your side of it,
S carolina -11.5 - we'll talk about this once the OL puts pads on
UAB +14 - already discussed this game
Stanford +4 - Popular play around here, line is def higher than everyone thought it would be as well. Looks solid from the information I've read from everyone
Wake forest -12.5 - wish the spread was a little lower, like 10.
Western michigan +13.5 - I think they can certainly hang around
kentucky +5 - They have enough talent on defense to keep them in this game.
pittsburgh -12 - Lean of mine as well just need to do more research here.
Fresno state +6 - I know Fresno will be pumped to the grills but Shiano is great coach and RU will be prepared. If Kordell Young is running around at 100%, they will have a running game to compliment their passing game, kid is talented.


Talk me off leans

Wisconsin -26.5
Idaho +28
utah +5 - How good do you think the Mich offense will be. How do you prepare your defense for the Mich offense if you are Utah?
oklahoma state -5 - This is a lean of mine, the only thing keeping me off is Cowboys road record under Gundy. Can we trust him? They sure have the offensive skill players, WSU switching to a new no-huddle spread w/ new QB and the defense was bad last year.
ole miss -8.5
mizzou -8
mtsu +5 - Believe Troy, who has the top 2 OL/DL in the conference and a good secondary, has too much speed for MTSU. True, they have to replace outstanding QB-RB-WR but this is not a school short on talent. Their speed on defense should help contain the mobile Sophomore in Gee
tennessee -7 - I need to be talked off this one as well
hawaii +32.5 - UF team total!

yup i wish the spread were lower in the wake game too. They just usually fail to cover games as a favorite and this gives them a lot of room to win and not cover. Not a fan of double digit favorites , especially on the road vs a bcs conference school. By power rating the line is considerably short though. Wake has my number 1 ranked secondary in the country and while most will disagree with me on that , they will likely all have them in their top 5 or 10. Given what baylor liked to do last year and given what briles likes to do , the matchup is strong for wake. This is the best wake forest team i can ever remember seeing off the top of my head , and i am sure there will be other opportunities to win money betting on them if i pass here. will get into this game in more detail later.

as far as okie st.... no , i dont think we can trust them on the road. much like those playing rice , okie st falls into that category. I am confident that okie st scores a lot due to how wazzu defended the spread offenses they faced last year...... arizona 48 points , oregon 53 points , oregon st 52 points , washington 35 points ....and with okie st basically returning their entire offensive line from last year , and their qb , it should be A LOT of points. Talk in the spring was all about how much better the defense has looked year over eyar as well. New coach, new qb and systems at washington st and it isnt a real home game , its in seattle.


The stanford game is starting to get away from me a little bit as far as the line , stanford just keeps taking all the money. Really should have pulled the trigger on that game already but as it drops it makes it harder. oregon state has been so consistently underrated the last few years. Besides losing the front seven it look like no kuli for oregon st either.

 

[TheGarfather]

yup i wish the spread were lower in the wake game too. They just usually fail to cover games as a favorite and this gives them a lot of room to win and not cover. Not a fan of double digit favorites , especially on the road vs a bcs conference school. By power rating the line is considerably short though. Wake has my number 1 ranked secondary in the country and while most will disagree with me on that , they will likely all have them in their top 5 or 10. Given what baylor liked to do last year and given what briles likes to do , the matchup is strong for wake. This is the best wake forest team i can ever remember seeing off the top of my head , and i am sure there will be other opportunities to win money betting on them if i pass here. will get into this game in more detail later.

as far as okie st.... no , i dont think we can trust them on the road. much like those playing rice , okie st falls into that category. I am confident that okie st scores a lot due to how wazzu defended the spread offenses they faced last year...... arizona 48 points , oregon 53 points , oregon st 52 points , washington 35 points ....and with okie st basically returning their entire offensive line from last year , and their qb , it should be A LOT of points. Talk in the spring was all about how much better the defense has looked year over eyar as well. New coach, new qb and systems at washington st and it isnt a real home game , its in seattle.


The stanford game is starting to get away from me a little bit as far as the line , stanford just keeps taking all the money. Really should have pulled the trigger on that game already but as it drops it makes it harder. oregon state has been so consistently underrated the last few years. Besides losing the front seven it look like no kuli for oregon st either.

It never was going to be Kuli IMHO. I think Phil Steele is the only person that thought that. Slade Norris and Victor Butler are both experienced seniors with savage pass-rushing skills. They actually were the two leading sackers last year. Its the run defense where OSU will experience problems. In terms of edge rushing and getting to the QB they will probably do OK.

Beavs opened camp last week (Friday I think it was) and it was announced by Riley that they are (in theory) going with Lyle Moevao. We have seen this song and dance from coaches before (incl. Riley) so I would still consider this a fluid situation. If Lyle slips up even once it might be Sean again.

 

[Blue_Chip]

ncst no strong lean to sc

Quit playing! There is no way you would lay double digits! Anything over -3 and it's off your radar.

 

[E.T.G.]

ucla yes ncst no strong lean to sc

whats up w/ ucla

 

[lindetrain]

Start with one of the games you disagree on and tell me why , save me some money. Just don't pick the utep game ... i am playing that one for sure. probably on the moneyline. all the money has been coming in on buffalo though , so i am waiting as i might be able to get a better number. Pick one of them and tell me why you like the other side lind.

I'll go with Stanford.

I think everyone loves to play the home doggies (myself included), especially when it involves the dog returning nearly their entire team and the fave losing quite a bit. I usually have a tough time finding reasons to go against the home dog, and it is extremely rare that I find a situation I actually really like the road fave. But sometimes you can just spot a dead home dog and this is one of those times IMO.

First, I think you've got to look at the recent history between these two. Now I know Stanford will be much improved this year, but let's consider the fact OSU beat them 30-7 on the road two years back, and held them to around 180 total yards last year in a 23-6 win. Essentially, Stanford has shown no signs of matching up with this Beavers team and giving them any problems whatsoever.

Then I think you have to look at coaching. Now, to Stanford backers' credit, OSU hasn't been a great first half team the last two years. But, Riley has proven himself to be a very good coach, something I can't say about Harbaugh just yet. Let's look at their openers last year (I know OSU was a big fave and Stanford was a big dog, but still) - OSU was in complete control of their game (nearly doubled Utah in yardage), where Stanford surrendered over 600 yards and 6.8 ypc to UCLA, at home. What does that tell you about Harbaugh's chances of out-preparing Riley for this game?

I know the OSU front seven is a major concern, but look at how good their rush D has been the last six years! Not once have they allowed over 117 ypg on the ground. If you ask me, that is more a product of coaching than returning talent. Also, Stanford proved last year with their 111 rush ypg and 3.0 ypc that they aren't much of a force on the ground. Even with a whole new group, it's safe to say OSU has the talent edge.

QB is definitely a concern, but you have to assume they will be much better there. Shit, they were horrible last year and still averaged 27.8 ppg on offense. They bring back three senior starters on the OL along with two major threats on the outside in Strougher and Rodgers. Can you tell me Stanford's porous D is good enough to really contain them? Is there even a shot they keep OSU under 20?

Basically, this game is a situation where only one side really has much of a chance of covering easily - and that's OSU. Can Stanford roll in this game? Highly unlikely. Can OSU? Certainly. That's something you have to feel uncomfortable about if you take the points. There is really only potential for an ass-whooping on one side.

I am not down on Stanford this year by any means, but like I mentioned, this is one of those home dogs everyone is dying to take because they should be improved this year, and I think it could really burn a lot of people.

I'm not big on write-ups anymore but that's what I got.

 

[lindetrain]

whats up w/ ucla

ETG, I would like to hear what reasons you could come up with to back UCLA. I have mine, but I think a lot of people who want to back UT can't generate many. And usually, it's sorta a cause for concern if you can't come up with any reasons why the opposition may be a good play.

Not trying to come off as a smart ass, but I think a lot of people see this as a much easier play than it is. I kinda wanna hear what you can come up with on backing UCLA other than the primetime home doggie angle.

 

[E.T.G.]

ETG, I would like to hear what reasons you could come up with to back UCLA. I have mine, but I think a lot of people who want to back UT can't generate many. And usually, it's sorta a cause for concern if you can't come up with any reasons why the opposition may be a good play.

Not trying to come off as a smart ass, but I think a lot of people see this as a much easier play than it is. I kinda wanna hear what you can come up with on backing UCLA other than the primetime home doggie angle.

you already mentioned the home underdog
you have a new coach in his 1st game at home so no doubt you will get a great effort as any team should give in the 1st game of the year.
a good d-cordinator, a usually tough defense against the run and some experience coming back in that department.
a team who is 9-1 in home openers.
an excellent o-cordinator, excellent TE
you could talk about Tennessee's road trip West last year and how that was a disaster although they likely are reminding themselves about it.


your problems are that your QB is coming off a spring where he was injured and he is known to get hurt. While playing last year he was less than desireable w/ almost 1:1 TD-INT ratio. The OL lacks depth, is inexperienced and will not be geled, I'm willing to bet on that.. The starting RB is coming off knee surgery, lose leading 2 WR.

You face one of the best OL in the country, a team with a powerful running game, they get their 3 leading WR back, will have a talented secondary and a better front 7 than they had last year. They replace Ainge with a QB who I believe is very talented, has been in the program now for 4 years so he knows what is going on, on top of having an O-Cordinator who has a track record of running successful offenses so I can not think that behind that OL (4 sacks last yr) w/ that RB and those WR, that Crompton can not have success.

 

[E.T.G.]

if you want a score, 31-17 or 31-20

 

[lindetrain]

Pretty much good points on both sides, I agree with most all of them.

I guess I just have a different view of this one in my head than you do. I see a UCLA team coming out completely fired up, and although I am a little shaky on their health, a backfield with plenty of experience who has come up with big performances in each of their last two openers. This is arguably the best HC/OC/DC combination you'll find west of the Mississippi, and you have to think they really help bring out the capabilities this team has.

UT has almost all the tools on offense and I'm sure this OC you talk about is good, but they're still gonna be breaking in a new scheme under the bright lights of primetime in the Rose Bowl. Talk about a tough time to try to get things rolling. This guy might be good, but we all know how great Cutcliffe made the Vols offense, and with losing him and Ainge you probably aren't going to see as smooth of a transition as you might expect.

The UT D may be good, but they were very soft at times last year and I don't think their front seven is that intimidating. I think they lack starpower sans McCoy and I wonder if they're really good enough to dominate up front, even with questions on the UCLA OL...they allowed 4.2 ypc last year and only generated 24 sacks. The secondary could end up being special, but do they make up for a front seven that really ain't that great?

 

[O-State]

holy smokes, I still haven't capped 8/10s of those games.

At a glance, I love most of what you have. I would talk you off of
Wisky, Utah, Hawaii, and Mizzou.

Michigan for me is a Strong Lean. Utah is a SOLID football team, but your talking about Riches first game Michigan the exitement they will be pumped it's one of those things that just doesn't happen. 2-6 last 8 road openers and 3-8 since 2000 away vs. BCS teams in the regular season.

Wisky and Hawaii are "yeah, they might cover but they might not. I know it's gonna be a blowout but I'm cutting hairs with such large numbers, not taking the chance."

Wisky LY vs. Citadel 1AA struggled. Vs. Northern Illinois, which you may liken this game too Wisky won 44-3 and covered a 23 point spread. Wisky was also coming off of a thrashing by PSU, was coming home to get well so to speak, will they have the same passion vs. Akron?
---Wisky should keep Akron under 14 points and get minormous opportunities. But let's face it, it'll be run run run OSU vs. Akron I don't know if they even had 7 at half last year. Wisky should still run run run Akron all over the field but some times it just doesn't happen with these lesser opponents. Emotion is the key. Quite frankly, IMO Akron's D wasn't close to being as bad as Northern Illinois so I don't know if that's a fair benchmark. Zips run that 3-3-5 and that undersized scheme sometimes bothers bigger OLineman.

---On the other hand Wisky trying out new qb will come out throwing and historically starts out well in openers dominating.

Hawaii --- It'll be up there and Florida with Urban likes to put the #'s up. Complete mismatch, don't know why it couldn't be 30.

Mizzou - I'd lean them to win straight up, but 8 is pushing it. Illinois is not losing much to contrary belief, they lose Mendenhall but Oline still rock solid, lose Lehman, Dline still studly and db's will be good. Lb's maybe some question also lost another starter with lehman, top two tacklers.

--Juice I would think has to be improved this year. Wr's will be, were young last year.

---The biggest loss for Illinois as I check is both safeties. That's big expecially with Chase Daniel. I'd have to get an Illini fan to tell me how adequate these guys are, because outside of safety Illinois is GOOD.

 

[Dmoney416]

Christ, this is one hell of a thread - particularly the insight on the TCU/NM match-up. Appreciate the time you put into that one.

Also good to see that we are on the same futures. The Cincy Over 6.5 is now at -135.

 

[tru]

Quit playing! There is no way you would lay double digits! Anything over -3 and it's off your radar.

haha, its a lean not a offical play right now. if i get tha right line i will lay tha points. right now its too much i cant remember tha last time i layed doulbe digits in cfb. god did lay 7.5 2 years ago reg season, an i think either -2.5 or -3 was tha most i layed last reg season

whats up w/ ucla

situational system play for me. i see its dropped to 6.5 now from tha +7 it opened at bookmaker at.

 

[Blue_Chip]

situational system play for me. i see its dropped to 6.5 now from tha +7 it opened at bookmaker at.

Greek offering UCLA +7 -115 last I checked, so it's about to drop to 6.5 there.

 

[E.T.G.]

Greek offering UCLA +7 -115 last I checked, so it's about to drop to 6.5 there.

i see greek @ 6.5

 

[E.T.G.]

Pretty much good points on both sides, I agree with most all of them.

I guess I just have a different view of this one in my head than you do. I see a UCLA team coming out completely fired up, and although I am a little shaky on their health, a backfield with plenty of experience who has come up with big performances in each of their last two openers. This is arguably the best HC/OC/DC combination you'll find west of the Mississippi, and you have to think they really help bring out the capabilities this team has. While I agree that the coaching is excellent, are they going to be able to bring out the best right away or is this UCLA team going to be much better later in the year and gradually get to that point?

UT has almost all the tools on offense and I'm sure this OC you talk about is good, but they're still gonna be breaking in a new scheme under the bright lights of primetime in the Rose Bowl. Talk about a tough time to try to get things rolling. This guy might be good, but we all know how great Cutcliffe made the Vols offense, and with losing him and Ainge you probably aren't going to see as smooth of a transition as you might expect. From what I gather from Vol fans, Cutcliffe and Ainge were a match made in heaven for each other. Physically speaking, Crompton is a more gifted athlete with a stronger arm and now they are making a move to an offense that utilizes their skill positions even more and they have the OL to support the move. Sure expecting a new offense to be full throtle in the opener with a new QB-OC is a little much, but I believe it can be more than competent vs. UCLA.

The UT D may be good, but they were very soft at times last year and I don't think their front seven is that intimidating. I think they lack starpower sans McCoy and I wonder if they're really good enough to dominate up front, even with questions on the UCLA OL...they allowed 4.2 ypc last year and only generated 24 sacks. The secondary could end up being special, but do they make up for a front seven that really ain't that great?

I'm not going to argue with you about UT being soft up front last year, because they were. The secondary is going to be stout w/ Berry leading the way and Demetrice Morley back in the lineup. McCoy is the stud of the front 7 and I expect Robert Ayers coming back from injury along with Demonte Bolden to help anchor the front 7. Still though, I know all too well about new OL's w/ little depth and its tough to be on the same page in WK1 which I think will happen to UCLA.

I'm not real high on UCLA, believe this is a 5-6 win P10 team vs. a 8-9 win SEC team.

Believe that this Tenn OL can make the offensive transition a smooth one for Crompton & Clawson. I believe Crompton has the tools to be a good QB and I'm comfortable knowing I'm putting my money on a 1st year starter who is a 4th year junior rather than say a RS-Frosh on the road under the lights. Lastly I don't believe UCLA has the depth to compete for 4 quarters in this game.

 

[Schrute]

Damn, why the name change?

 

[G-Man]

Here's to a good year VK. Keep on winning! :cheers:

 

[RetroVK]

alright gang , i just returned from two days in mesquite golfing with another CTG member. Got in two rounds , i snuck by him in the first round but he crushed me in the second round..crud.

Thread has been busy in my absence and i will lend my opinions on some of the discussion in a little bit.

 

[RetroVK]

It never was going to be Kuli IMHO. I think Phil Steele is the only person that thought that. Slade Norris and Victor Butler are both experienced seniors with savage pass-rushing skills. They actually were the two leading sackers last year. Its the run defense where OSU will experience problems. In terms of edge rushing and getting to the QB they will probably do OK.

Beavs opened camp last week (Friday I think it was) and it was announced by Riley that they are (in theory) going with Lyle Moevao. We have seen this song and dance from coaches before (incl. Riley) so I would still consider this a fluid situation. If Lyle slips up even once it might be Sean again.

Gar, yo hearing anything about the development of either of these guys over the offseason ?? The decision making last year was not just horrendous but it seemed to reallty deflate the rest of the team at times ( both QB). Also wonder if he will go witht the qb he likes the most or if he goes with the qb the team wants the most. As far as the pass rush , the return of butler is huge of course with 10.5 sacks last year but he was also kind of a one-trick pony.

Also as far as kuli/slade , i had always assumed they were both going to be seeing a lot of action and rotating in a lot anyway. Who actually started probably didnt matter that much. I think the loss hurts given what we already know happened with graduation.

 

[RetroVK]

I'll go with Stanford.

I think everyone loves to play the home doggies (myself included), especially when it involves the dog returning nearly their entire team and the fave losing quite a bit. I usually have a tough time finding reasons to go against the home dog, and it is extremely rare that I find a situation I actually really like the road fave. But sometimes you can just spot a dead home dog and this is one of those times IMO.

First, I think you've got to look at the recent history between these two. Now I know Stanford will be much improved this year, but let's consider the fact OSU beat them 30-7 on the road two years back, and held them to around 180 total yards last year in a 23-6 win. Essentially, Stanford has shown no signs of matching up with this Beavers team and giving them any problems whatsoever.

Then I think you have to look at coaching. Now, to Stanford backers' credit, OSU hasn't been a great first half team the last two years. But, Riley has proven himself to be a very good coach, something I can't say about Harbaugh just yet. Let's look at their openers last year (I know OSU was a big fave and Stanford was a big dog, but still) - OSU was in complete control of their game (nearly doubled Utah in yardage), where Stanford surrendered over 600 yards and 6.8 ypc to UCLA, at home. What does that tell you about Harbaugh's chances of out-preparing Riley for this game?

I know the OSU front seven is a major concern, but look at how good their rush D has been the last six years! Not once have they allowed over 117 ypg on the ground. If you ask me, that is more a product of coaching than returning talent. Also, Stanford proved last year with their 111 rush ypg and 3.0 ypc that they aren't much of a force on the ground. Even with a whole new group, it's safe to say OSU has the talent edge.

QB is definitely a concern, but you have to assume they will be much better there. Shit, they were horrible last year and still averaged 27.8 ppg on offense. They bring back three senior starters on the OL along with two major threats on the outside in Strougher and Rodgers. Can you tell me Stanford's porous D is good enough to really contain them? Is there even a shot they keep OSU under 20?



I am not down on Stanford this year by any means, but like I mentioned, this is one of those home dogs everyone is dying to take because they should be improved this year, and I think it could really burn a lot of people.

I'm not big on write-ups anymore but that's what I got.

lots to get into here and you definitely make some good points.

First addressing the past history with these two teams.... Last year was a nice win for oregon state ( i had them that day woot. ) . Stanford was held to NEGATIVE yards rushing in that game but one of the angles we had for that week as i recall ( and the following week vs washington as well ) was that stanford was incredibly banged up at the rb position. Also , while oregon state was clearly the superior team they did benefit from plus 4 in turnovers. The year prior AT stanford , oregon state put an asswhooping on them , doubling them in first downs 24-12 and stanford failed tor each 100 yards rushing in that game either. But don't we have to take that season with a grain of salt ?? Stanford went 1-11 and lost 10 of those games by 9 or more points and were coming off of their lone win. Just the same , it has been awhile since oregon state lost at stanford ( 1999 ). point taken.

Riley > harbaugh. Doubt anyone tries to deny that. point taken again.

Yes their rush defense has been good for awhile now .... and yes , they will be able to scheme with the front seven to focus on stopping the run with a good secondary to rely on , but i dont think i can remember seeing a team replace an entire front seven like this before. Doggett was a special college player and that other kid last year got drafted by someone. I can understand the argument that they might be decent against the run again as a result of coaching/scheme but they lost a lot good players and a lot of senior eladership fromt hat defense. Remember they basically returned 9 guys to that defense from 2006 to 2007. Also from a talent perspective stanford should be a different team rushing the ball this year. The runningback that reshirted last year for stanford was going to be their fulltime back before he got hurt and is one of the higher valued guys out of high school that stanford has gotten for this position in awhile. Throw in a way more talented O-line than normal too. I would never say that i owuld be surprised by stanford laying an egg and getting shutdown in the run game but i wouldn't expect it here.

I think you bring up a good point about the offense , the o-line in particular. Perry , who missed most of last year hurt is one of the best offensive linemen in the entire nation and levitre will be playing in the nfl too. If i were a beaver fan i would prefer to see levitre at LT so they could just mash teams with both those guys on the same side of the line. Stroughter was a trainwreck last year and while he might return to pre "crazy" status , i wouldn't bank on it just yet.

Disagree mildly with a few things but i think most of your statements are on point.

 

[RetroVK]

holy smokes, I still haven't capped 8/10s of those games.

At a glance, I love most of what you have. I would talk you off of
Wisky, Utah, Hawaii, and Mizzou.

Michigan for me is a Strong Lean. Utah is a SOLID football team, but your talking about Riches first game Michigan the exitement they will be pumped it's one of those things that just doesn't happen. 2-6 last 8 road openers and 3-8 since 2000 away vs. BCS teams in the regular season.

Wisky and Hawaii are "yeah, they might cover but they might not. I know it's gonna be a blowout but I'm cutting hairs with such large numbers, not taking the chance."

Wisky LY vs. Citadel 1AA struggled. Vs. Northern Illinois, which you may liken this game too Wisky won 44-3 and covered a 23 point spread. Wisky was also coming off of a thrashing by PSU, was coming home to get well so to speak, will they have the same passion vs. Akron?
---Wisky should keep Akron under 14 points and get minormous opportunities. But let's face it, it'll be run run run OSU vs. Akron I don't know if they even had 7 at half last year. Wisky should still run run run Akron all over the field but some times it just doesn't happen with these lesser opponents. Emotion is the key. Quite frankly, IMO Akron's D wasn't close to being as bad as Northern Illinois so I don't know if that's a fair benchmark. Zips run that 3-3-5 and that undersized scheme sometimes bothers bigger OLineman.

---On the other hand Wisky trying out new qb will come out throwing and historically starts out well in openers dominating.

Hawaii --- It'll be up there and Florida with Urban likes to put the #'s up. Complete mismatch, don't know why it couldn't be 30.

Mizzou - I'd lean them to win straight up, but 8 is pushing it. Illinois is not losing much to contrary belief, they lose Mendenhall but Oline still rock solid, lose Lehman, Dline still studly and db's will be good. Lb's maybe some question also lost another starter with lehman, top two tacklers.

--Juice I would think has to be improved this year. Wr's will be, were young last year.

---The biggest loss for Illinois as I check is both safeties. That's big expecially with Chase Daniel. I'd have to get an Illini fan to tell me how adequate these guys are, because outside of safety Illinois is GOOD.

First , to be honest , the mizzou line is going to have to drop a little for me to bet it .... maybe if it hits 7.5 i can buy down if i like it at that point. Everyone seems to want to mention mendenhall a lot ( me too ) but no one wants to mention lehman !!!! He was a big time player for this team and HE is the biggest loss OTHER than mendenhall , even more so than millington/odonnell. You hit the nail on the head with the safety losses and you are also right that missouri is the type of team to exploit them. Very tough offense to defend with a defense that is going to start 4/5 underclassmen. Talented underclassmen but that is a tough first assignment. Illinois was a runbased team last year offensively and now loses mendenhall , and their two best offensive linemen from last year. Juice sucked in wide opne play action situations last year and he has less of a run game and worse pass protection this year. Benn should be better this year. I know that i have bashed juice over and over again but if illinois struggles to run ...... and it is a contest between juice throwing and daniel throwing ... ouch.


As far as akron and ohio state , the score doesnt tell the whole story. check out first downs and yards gained int he game.. it was bad weather affair and akron benefited from turnovers. Also , that was ohio states first game against FBS last year and they had a lot of new faces starting. That was the perfect time to play the buckeyes and despite the weather , the turnover and the spot , ohio st still won by 18. I think akron is going to get absoultely mashed by the wisconsin fatties.

The hawaii game and line. Well , how much of a favorite would you make hawaii over ulm ??? how much of a favorite would you make hawaii over akron ?? how much would you make hawaii a favorite over fiu ?? This line simply isn't comparable to the other humongously lined games. All the money coming in on one side here.....

 

[RetroVK]

Christ, this is one hell of a thread - particularly the insight on the TCU/NM match-up. Appreciate the time you put into that one.

Also good to see that we are on the same futures. The Cincy Over 6.5 is now at -135.

Relied heavily upon your insight obviously regarding the cincy over bet and we spent some good time discussing this bet in the forum and through other avenues.

As far as the writeup , i think i got a little long winded there and could have made my reasoning more clear with a little less detail. some folks want all the info they can get though.

 

[RetroVK]

Thanks for the well wishes gman ...

try to respond to everyone who takes the time to post in my thread and i think i have ... if i failed to address anything , let me know and i will visit it.

 

[RetroVK]

Ok , I probably will not be doing a writeup on the Wyoming game as it has been discussed ad nauseam in several threads throughout the last few weeks, including a lot of my own thoughts. If anyone still needs the reasoning behind the play and can’t find the other threads where it is discussed, just say so and I will give my reasons for betting Wyoming.

Here is a look at the temple play, I will try to just give some thoughts that you should keep note of and my thinking regarding the game and try not to bes o long winded as the tcu-unm game the rest of the year with these writeups.

Advantages/angles pro-temple

-Revenge spot here for Temple after falling to army 21-37. Deceiving score in that affair. Temple had a 25-14 first down adavantage ,and a 463 to 329 yardage advantage. They lost due to giving up a 69 yard pass to trimble ( army’s only big offensive threat , they had 106 yards passing the rest of the game ) , a 85 yard punt return for td , an 88 yard kickoff return for td , a fumble recovered in the end zone for a td , 5 total turnovers and 11 penalties for 89 yards. A very flukish game.

-These two teams are in different places in regards to returning talent and system continuity. Temple basically returns everyone to both sides of the ball. This recruiting class marks the third consecutive year that Temple has ranked #1 in MAC recruiting. The owls go from having just 1 scholarship senior last year to having everyone return to same systems. Army returns just 4/5 to both sides of the ball and lose their all-everything offensive player in Jeremy trimble and lose their all everything player on defense in caleb Campbell. Campebell was drafted by the lions but the army would not release him from his commitments . In addition to these major losses the cadets are looking to have a more “option style” offense this year. Huge experience and continuity edge for the owls over the cadets in this one. HUGE.

-Temple returns everyone to a defense that ranked #1 in the entire nation last year in red zone defense. Army returns 4/5 to an offense that ranked #117 in red zone offense last year.

-Temple returns everyone to a defense that ranked #14 in 3<SUP>rd</SUP> down conversion defense a year ago.
Army returns 4/.5 to an offense that ranked #118 in 3<SUP>rd</SUP> down offense a year ago.

-Army did not outplay a single FBS opponent last year. They won 3 games. One win was vs. Rhode Island , a 7 point home win in OT no less One win was vs. this temple team and I think we showed how flukish that win was. One win was over Tulane where they were outgained by 160 yards but connected on a hail mary pass at the end of the game to go to overtime where they won. This team easily could have gone 0-for-the-season. How often is a 3 win team deceiving in this way ? They were out first downed last year by 8 a game. That is just sick. Lose their best offensive and defensive player from that team …sick.

-Temple on the other hand was a deceiving 4-8. They could easily have been bowl eligible last year as they lost the fluke game vs. this army team and had the game against uconn just stolen from them when they clearly caught the game winning score in the back of the end zone and mysteriously the call was not just blown by the officials but somehow missed by the booth review. Maybe it was the same booth review guy that did the Oklahoma/Oregon game a couple years ago J This team returns everyone from that squad and is not changing systems.

-Temple has a huge size advantage up front. The temple offensive line weighs in at 298 pounds and has the assistance of a quality blocking TE. The Army defensive line averages in at 263 pounds. 35 pound difference on average. The owls center alone has more career starts than the Army two deep st dl. Army o-line weighs 12 pounds more on average over the Temple d-line.

-Temple, and specifically these defenders have seen a lot of option attack recently. They have faced option attacks three times in the last 13 games. Another big advantage as the option is difficult to prepare for. Throw in the fact that it is the second consecutive season opener in which they have faced the option. Lots of good prep for this style.

-Coaching. Have to love what Al Golden brings to the table and I am not a believer in Stan Brock to date. I give him credit for allowing the switch to the option style as I think it gives the academies the best chance to win but also think it will be hard for that attack to be fine tuned for the opener against a team that has seen the navy version twice in the last 13 games.


Disadvantages/concerns

-Army is one of the least penalized teams in the country. Personally , if I was officiating , I am not sure I could throw a flag against any of the academies. Army was second in the nation and only averaged 31 yards a game in penalties.

-Temple laying points. This will mark just the second time since the middle of 2003 that temple is the favorite going into the game. The last time was a home game vs. buffalo last year. The bulls won that game 42-7 , dominating temple.

-Temple has Uconn on deck in a revenge game for the robbery of last season. I am not much of a believer in teams like temple looking ahead too much but it should be noted.

How I see the game

-Temple should have the edge at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Temple has a senior starting qb with leadership skills and Army is likely to start a freshman at qb taking his first college snap. If not it will be Williams again , who is simply atrocious and not suited for the option. With a size advantage up front , and Army sporting the 117 ranked rush defense from last year , temple should be able to move the ball effectively on the ground. Dimichelle should have no problem utilizing the short passing game and screen game to effectiveness vs. Army lack of experience as a defensive unit. No Campbell back for Army to cover a lot of their defensive deficiencies and no Trimble to make big plays. Army testing out new offense vs. a team used to playing vs. the option spells trouble , especially when you are trying to turn a team that was one of the five worst rushing teams in the nation into a rushing team. Temple has shown the ability to show up on the key plays ,,,, in the red zone and on third downs ….. Army has been just the opposite. The experience factor should make that trend continue.


Temple 31 Army 16

 

[RetroVK]

Eliminated middle tennessee state as a possible play today.

 

[JPicks]

I've read this thread a dozen times and not once have I said you were a machine for that w/up on the TCU/NM game. You're a machine.

 

[RetroVK]

jpick -- :cheers:

I moved Hawaii into my strong leans category from the talk me off leans. Haven't looked much harder at the game than before , but the line has moved a lot.

I also decided today that i will not be betting utah the first week of the year. In the end , I just have so many questions concerning michigan and i don't think any of them will be answered to the level i will desire to put money on utah here. the line has kept dropping so i would also be taking considerably the worst of it at this point , barring a reversal. All offseason i have been wondering what the total would be for this game but for the same reasons i wont be betting a side , i doubt i bet the under here. want to see michigan execute for atleast one game before risking the cash. We also fell from a high of +5.5 ( if there was a 6 , i dont remember seeing it ) down into the 3.5 area. As you know , that area is one where the team that covers is the team that wins outright. I mgiht be out thinking myself here and if the line reverses , i may consider it again but as of now , it is eliminated as a play. The good news is that i think there will be ample value with utah at other points in the season.

 

[Blue_Chip]

I moved Hawaii into my strong leans category from the talk me off leans. Haven't looked much harder at the game than before , but the line has moved a lot.

37 by kickoff?

 

[RetroVK]

37 by kickoff?

Was talking with Tru about that exact number. Think all three of us are on the same page as to where this line might end up. I mean right now, we don't even have the average Joe's money on the game yet and i am betting that will be florida money.

i think we have a good chance to see 37.

Wish i had taken florida in this game when it opened because the middle opportunity would have been humongous. Knew how this line was moving....... oh well.........guess i will be the lone jackalope with money on hawaii....probably anyway.

 

[RetroVK]

I managed to eliminate two of my talk me off leans today , in missouri and ole miss. Of course if either of these games has a big line move and i see a td or less , i will revisit it. But at these numbers and what i see as the likely ending number , i eliminated them.

That list has gotten very manageable and i have a feeling that wake forest and stanford will both be no plays as well. Still looking at both. Those of you who know me from last year , know how i despise getting that much the worst of a number and stanford is now at 3 most places and i have little new information on the oregon state front seven. Still looking at it though.