2008 cfb - Time to post my week 1 card so far

[RetroVK]

<TABLE class=fixed cellSpacing=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD id=content style="PADDING-LEFT: 10px"><FORM name=DepthForm action=cdepthtext.asp method=post><TABLE cellSpacing=9 cellPadding=0 width="100%"></TD></TR><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle>

<SELECT onchange=javascript:ChangeFormation(157); name=Offense> SELECT * FROM DepthChartPerson INNER JOIN DepthChart on dn_dc_key = dc_key WHERE dc_fo_key = 12 AND dc_team = 'MIDDLETENN' ORDER BY dn_person<OPTION value=12>Power I</OPTION>SELECT * FROM DepthChartPerson INNER JOIN DepthChart on dn_dc_key = dc_key WHERE dc_fo_key = 14 AND dc_team = 'MIDDLETENN' ORDER BY dn_person<OPTION value=14 selected>Pro-set</OPTION>SELECT * FROM DepthChartPerson INNER JOIN DepthChart on dn_dc_key = dc_key WHERE dc_fo_key = 21 AND dc_team = 'MIDDLETENN' ORDER BY dn_personSELECT * FROM DepthChartPerson INNER JOIN DepthChart on dn_dc_key = dc_key WHERE dc_fo_key = 27 AND dc_team = 'MIDDLETENN' ORDER BY dn_person<OPTION value=27>Spread</OPTION></SELECT> </TD><!-- <td valign=bottom align=center>Select a School:
<select name="School" onChange="javascript:ChangeTeam();"> --><!-- </select>
Advanced Depth Chart</td> --><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle>

<SELECT onchange=javascript:ChangeFormation(157); name=Defense> <OPTION value=15 selected>4-3 Defense</OPTION></SELECT> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-TOP: 0px" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=655 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; WIDTH: 316px; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=316><TABLE style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; WIDTH: 316px; PADDING-TOP: 0px" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=316 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle width=60 bgColor=#ffffff rowSpan=2>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 12 Joe Craddock | 5-11, 197, Sr., 3V</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 9 Dwight Dasher | 5-10, 207, So., 1V</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle width=60 bgColor=#ffffff rowSpan=2>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 2 Desmond Gee | 5-8, 166, Jr., 2V</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 21 Phillip Tanner | 6-0, 195, Jr., 2V</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle width=60 bgColor=#ffffff rowSpan=2>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 13 Michael Cannon | 5-10, 185, Sr., 2V</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 15 D.D. Kyles | 6-1, 190, Fr., HS</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle width=60 bgColor=#ffffff rowSpan=2>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 17 Patrick Honeycutt | 5-9, 170, Sr., 2V</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 19 Andrew Banks | 5-9, 155, Fr., HS</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle width=60 bgColor=#ffffff rowSpan=2>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 81 Wes Caldwell | 6-2, 178, So., 1V</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 82 Clyde Lydick | 6-4, 240, ., </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle width=60 bgColor=#ffffff rowSpan=4>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 82 Alvin Ingle | 6-2, 231, Jr., RS</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 16 Gene Delle Donne | 6-5, 256, Sr., 2V</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 86 Byron McLeod | 6-2, 228, Fr., HS</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 41 J. Stephens | 6-4, 263, Sr., 3V</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle width=60 bgColor=#ffffff>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 78 Mike Williams | 6-3, 265, Fr., HS</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle width=60 bgColor=#ffffff rowSpan=2>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 72 Mark Thompson | 6-4, 300, Sr., 2V</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 69 J.C. Moore | 6-6, 300, Jr., HS</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle width=60 bgColor=#ffffff rowSpan=2>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 76 Jamal Lewis | 6-4, 302, Jr., RS</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 50 Colin Boss | 6-4, 326, Fr., HS</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle width=60 bgColor=#ffffff rowSpan=2>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 75 Chris Hawkins | 6-3, 285, Jr., RS</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 62 Evon Lettsome | 6-4, 293, Jr., HS</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle width=60 bgColor=#ffffff rowSpan=2>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 71 Jake Padrick | 6-0, 290, Fr., HS</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 63 Chris Ritter | 6-2, 312, Jr., 3V</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD width=12>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=316><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=316 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle width=28 bgColor=#ffffff rowSpan=2>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 98 Chris McCoy | 6-4, 263, Sr., 2V</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 12 C. Culicerto | 5-11, 170, Fr., HS</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle width=28 bgColor=#ffffff rowSpan=3>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 56 Wes Hofacker | 6-2, 252, Jr., 3V</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 91 Emmanuel Perez | 6-2, 235, Fr., HS</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 99 Antonio Hill | 6-0, 225, Fr., HS</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle width=28 bgColor=#ffffff rowSpan=3>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 97 Trevor Jenkins | 6-1, 285, Sr., 3V</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 95 Jonathan Presley | 6-4, 265, Sr., 2V</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 51 SaCoby Carter | 6-2, 268, Fr., HS</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle width=28 bgColor=#ffffff rowSpan=3>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 47 Dwight Smith | 6-1, 265, Fr., HS</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 92 Brandon Perry | 6-1, 327, Sr., 2V</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 94 Gary Tucker | 6-2, 258, Jr., HS</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle width=28 bgColor=#ffffff rowSpan=3>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 29 Lonnie Clemons | 6-1, 226, Sr., 3V</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 55 Andrew Harrington | 6-2, 223, Sr., 3V</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 18 Landon Givers | 6-2, 227, Fr., HS</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle width=28 bgColor=#ffffff rowSpan=2>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 27 Ivon Hickmon | 6-1, 213, Sr., 3V</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 52 Antwan Davis | 6-1, 213, Fr., HS</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle width=28 bgColor=#ffffff rowSpan=2>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 44 Danny Carmichael | 6-0, 238, Jr., 2V</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 30 Cam Robinson | 6-1, 216, Jr., 2V</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle width=28 bgColor=#ffffff>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 6 Rod Issac | 5-11, 180, So., 1V</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle width=28 bgColor=#ffffff rowSpan=2>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 7 Alex Suber | 5-9, 165, Sr., 2V</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 25 Ted Riley | 6-1, 180, Sr., 3V</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle width=28 bgColor=#ffffff rowSpan=2>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 8 Anthony Glover | 6-2, 213, Sr., 3V</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 33 Kevin Brown | 6-1, 192, So., 1V</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle width=28 bgColor=#ffffff>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 20 Jeremy Kellem | 5-10, 183, So., 1V</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle colSpan=3>

</TD></TR><TR><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=318 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle width=28 bgColor=#ffffff rowSpan=2>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 37 David DeFatta | 5-9, 184, Sr., 2V</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 36 Richard Billings | 6-2, 204, Sr., 2V</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle width=28 bgColor=#ffffff>

</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff> <TD></TD><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle width=28 bgColor=#ffffff>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 2 Desmond Gee | 5-8, 166, Jr., 2V</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TD>

</TD><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle width=28 bgColor=#ffffff>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 35 Matt King | 5-10, 198, Sr., 3V</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle width=28 bgColor=#ffffff>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 17 Patrick Honeycutt | 5-9, 170, Sr., 2V</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle width=28 bgColor=#ffffff rowSpan=2>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 48 Adam Wade | 5-10, 214, Jr., RS</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 53 Shane Adams | 6-0, 211, Jr., HS</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

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[RetroVK]

ok center padrick is out. backup center ritter is gone. the backup RT and listed starter for RT in steele jc moore is gone. ... what else ?? looking .... thats a lot of attrition to the OL which was looking to start 4 underclassmen as it was.

 

[RetroVK]

i can't back mtsu in this game .. too bad i like the defense a little bit. the under might be worth a look if they line this as if it was troy and mtsu of last year.

i put uab back on the leans list ... still a lot of time between now and the game to get some of my questions answered and this game is off a lot by power rating

 

[TheGarfather]

LB Givers out as well. I wanted to take MTSU, but its not gonna happen. they have about 8 or 9 scholarship OLmen and only a couple have any experience.

 

[cubsker]

I'm on UAB kyle. Tulsa's become a public darling imo.

 

[RetroVK]

I eliminated two more plays today.

I will not be playing wake forest despite some matchup advantages and continuity advantages that look really nice on paper. I am very reluctant to play double digit away favorites in college football. I think I made two plays that fit this category the entire year last year. houston -13 at UAB was a win 49-10 and Fresno st -13 at NMSU a loss 30-23 ( goalline stand late fourth qtr for nmsu. haha ). Just not a big fan of doing the double digit road chalk. Wake Forest has been a team that is much better as a dog and have covered just one of their last seven as DD favorites. I like this team but i think i can find better spots in conference to back them. Asking them to be a little bit too perfect. Some major matchup advantages here for wake and i won't be surprised at all if they cover obviously since i was considering betting it but in the end it isn't enough to overcome my distaste for dd road chalk. Still might use them in a teaser of some sort , but won't be backing week1

I will not be playing stanford either. The line simply got pounded down and i lost a lot of my value. When i am on the bubble and the line moves 2 points it becomes increasingly tough to play a game. Oregon state has been the most underrated team in the entire nation for a couple of years running. There is no doubt in my mind about that. I made some good money because of it and now i am concerned that i am under-estimating them again. They lose the starting front seven of their defensive front but the guys they are putting in there have some talent and a little more experience than you might think. I think stanford has a good chance to pull the upset but i lost a lot of my value ... a lot.

 

[O-State]

--What was it about mtsu that you guys liked before OL decimation? I see Troy all the way.

UTEP I feel like they might win but numbers say they shouldn't. They lose alot more players than Buffalo who has 18 returning starters.

--UTEP loses 3 top wr's, two best OL, top two lbers, stud FS. Buffalo loses only 1 on OL, a real good C, a real good DE, 2 lbs probably biggest losses, and all db's return, started 3 frosh last year.

Kyle, you criticalled Buffalo's inbetween the line wins but fail to mention UTEP was outgained in 8 of their 12 games and finished 4-8 despite being +9 in turnovers. They were ougained by New Mexico in the Opener 383-195 but still won. They lost to Rice +4 in turnovers.

Buffalo outgained MAC foes by 70ypg as well.


---I think this game will tell alot about CUSA and MAC in comparison. That's what's hard in looking at this game. UTEP was in high scoring affairs all year, but in a much more prolific conference. I think their defense statistically was worse but who knows what Buffalo would of yielded vs. same competition.

---I don't see any team particularly team having an advantage running the ball vs. the other team. Both kinda average run teams vs. weak run defenses.
Both shown a propensity to get completely shut down at times. I might give the edge to Buffalo, UTEP was god awful vs. the run. 62 rushes by Southern Miss and 56 by Houston, that wasn't prolific CUSA high scoring battle, that was just running the ball every down waiting for someone to stop it.

I might compare UTEP to Toledo in the MAC. Very similar stat game between Buffalo and Toledo LY.


Buffalo needs to be able to defend the pass game. Thing I like for Buffalo is those 3 frosh improved the previous years pass rating (2006) going from 116 to 82 due to their emergence. One of those frosh, FS Shannon bacame 1st TM MAC. They will only be better this year. Buffalo held spread Baylor to under 200, and only gave up over 300 twice.


---This is a really tough game to cap. Motivation is a dead wash, both teams will by hyped home game for Buffalo.

I don't know if I'll play it but I lean UTEP. I know UTEP lost to Toledo but last two GMAC's have been dominated by CUSA. ECU and UCF could play with BCS teams. Buffalo's 18 returning starters scares me might be a bowl year for them but I think UTEP will be greatly improved as well.

 

[broadwayjoe]

agree with most of your post except for this, which i strongly disagree:

"I don't see any team particularly team having an advantage running the ball vs. the other team. Both kinda average run teams vs. weak run defenses."

big talent dropoff at rb with utep from thomas to jackson. they lost their 1000 yd 17 td rusher and 3 OL from last year. buffalo returns their 1000 yard rusher, has a backup that looks just as good or better, and returns 4 OL. utep ranked 104th in the nation in rush defense (which is a higher-than deserved ranking imo), lost their best defensive player, and is in the middle of a system change on defense--one that is more susceptible to the run. buffalo's rush defense is certainly nothing to write home about, but they were ranked a full 25 spots ahead of utep's last year, and i definitely expect that ranking to improve while utep's goes down (at the very least until the defense can adjust to the scheme). so i think starks & thermilus + the returning o-line >>> than jackson + a new o-line, and buffalo's run defense >>> utep's run defense

 

[broadwayjoe]

and yes, kyle/gar...i can't see much to like about mtsu either...i'd like some thoughts on what you saw in them as well. besides a good turnover margin, i can't see much that i'd like...questions on offense and returning quite a bit of a horrible rush defense while losing 3/4 of a pretty good secondary. i'm sure you've paid more attention to them than me though, so it'll be good to hear your side. i pretty much threw em off the radar when the suspensions, transfers, and injuries started to pile up for them again...tough to get a feel with a team like that

 

[RetroVK]

I will give some points on what there is to like on mtsu in the next post but what to address some of the differences i have concerning the buffalo game not just with you fellers but with a lot of folks that seem to love the bulls for some reason.

UTEP I feel like they might win but numbers say they shouldn't.

probably the most perplexing comment to me. I cannot figure out how buffalo is favored in this game by the numbers. Utep is better statisitically than buffalo in 2007 and that is with the bulls playing in the MAC in what was clearly a down year for the conference. That is why most folks consider the conference the most improved this year ,,, they had a down year and now most teams return a lot. But Buffalo returning a lot of players is like uab returning a lot of players this year. Defending offenses like tulsa , houston , ucf , nmsu and ecu is a little different than what buffalo was defending in the mac last year. Quite frankly , the talent level of the two programs is simply different. I think maybe you are putting too much weight on returning starters without consideration for replacement ... much like the thomas > jackson comparison someone makes later while not comparing jackson to starks.

UTEP loses 3 top wr's, two best OL, top two lbers, stud FS. Buffalo loses only 1 on OL, a real good C, a real good DE, 2 lbs probably biggest losses, and all db's return, started 3 frosh last year.

The biggest improvement on this entire team rates to be the offensive line. The linebacker losses will hurt as the replacements don't look spectacular. Only central florida has better secondary in conference usa than utep this year and the miners are deep as well which helps them with the system they run this year. Buffalo loses their best offensive lineman , maybe ever and that is the major loss on this team along with their best defensive player. Those guys cant be replaced for them and while UTEP has improved at the LOS buffalo has not,... in fact while i have them rated slightly higher , phil steele has buffalos front seven as the worst in the entire MAC. Utep did lose some talent at WR but return Moturi who i would take pretty high in any college fantasy draft. Moturi is a better wr than anyone i see in the mac conference and if it were not for ooc games vs maclin and kinder , he would be the bulls toughest cover all year.

Kyle, you criticalled Buffalo's inbetween the line wins but fail to mention UTEP was outgained in 8 of their 12 games and finished 4-8 despite being +9 in turnovers. They were ougained by New Mexico in the Opener 383-195 but still won. They lost to Rice +4 in turnovers.

I am not sure that i mentioned the utep/unm game in my utep discussions but i am aware of that game and mentioned it in the tcu wirteup. Utep was dominated that game. They also got a lucky win vs smu when they made a big comeback and tied it late and won in OT. But they also suffered some tough losses. They were up 7 when ecu hit a long pass for a td on the last play of the game to send it to overtime where utep eventually lost. They were leading texas tech in the third qtr and tied in the fourth , they were leading ucf in the thrid quarter , they blew a 14 point fourth quarter lead in the rice game you referenced , and they led houston by 4 halfway through the fourth quarter as well....they lost all of those games , a majority of which were to bowl teams. So the major difference that i see is that while utep did have two games they easily could have lost that were wins , they also had several games that they could easily have won but lost.... and actually netted out negatively from that group. Not the case with buffalo who had zero games inwhich they lost but had a real good chance to win. the closest being a 3 point loss to miami ohio where they scored a td in the last two or three minutes to close the margin from 10 to 3.

Buffalo outgained MAC foes by 70ypg as well.

Very misleading stat. They only outgained two mac opponents in their games last year. ohio and temple and they smashed both of those teams so it skewed the stats. They were outgained by ballst , toledo , akron , miami oh , bowling green and kent st

---I think this game will tell alot about CUSA and MAC in comparison. That's what's hard in looking at this game. UTEP was in high scoring affairs all year, but in a much more prolific conference. I think their defense statistically was worse but who knows what Buffalo would of yielded vs. same competition.

This is what is fun about ooc games and bowl games. They are tougher to handicap. Conference usa had bowl teams of tulsa, smiss , houston , east carolina and central florida , they went 2-3 in those games with none of the losses coming by more than 10 points ( 3-2 ATS ). mac had three bowl teams in ballst , bowling green and central michigan , they went 0-3 ( 1-2 ATS ) in those games two blowouts and c mich falling just short on their rally against purdue. The lone head to head matchup that i found from last year between the two conferences was the bowl game of tulsa/bowlinggreen and that final was 63-7 tulsa , a team that utep defeated.

---I don't see any team particularly team having an advantage running the ball vs. the other team. Both kinda average run teams vs. weak run defenses.
Both shown a propensity to get completely shut down at times. I might give the edge to Buffalo, UTEP was god awful vs. the run. 62 rushes by Southern Miss and 56 by Houston, that wasn't prolific CUSA high scoring battle, that was just running the ball every down waiting for someone to stop it.


I agree. I also think the new defensive coordinator is a major upgrade for utep but whether they have the new defense figured out in time for week1 , well we wont know until we see.

Buffalo needs to be able to defend the pass game. Thing I like for Buffalo is those 3 frosh improved the previous years pass rating (2006) going from 116 to 82 due to their emergence. One of those frosh, FS Shannon bacame 1st TM MAC. They will only be better this year. Buffalo held spread Baylor to under 200, and only gave up over 300 twice.


Agree that buffalo should be even better this year vs pass but this is a different animal than ohio , akron ,temple , miami oh , syracuse , and kent st.

"I don't see any team particularly team having an advantage running the ball vs. the other team. Both kinda average run teams vs. weak run defenses."

big talent dropoff at rb with utep from thomas to jackson. they lost their 1000 yd 17 td rusher and 3 OL from last year. buffalo returns their 1000 yard rusher, has a backup that looks just as good or better, and returns 4 OL. utep ranked 104th in the nation in rush defense (which is a higher-than deserved ranking imo), lost their best defensive player, and is in the middle of a system change on defense--one that is more susceptible to the run. buffalo's rush defense is certainly nothing to write home about, but they were ranked a full 25 spots ahead of utep's last year, and i definitely expect that ranking to improve while utep's goes down (at the very least until the defense can adjust to the scheme). so i think starks & thermilus + the returning o-line >>> than jackson + a new o-line, and buffalo's run defense >>> utep's run defense

A couple of things here. Jackson is plenty good...so while i agree they are downa small notch at rb with loss of a damn good back ... the fact remains that had jackson remained at oregon he would be starting for the ducks this year. He is quality and utep would not trade him for james starks for the season. Also , are there injuries to the utep ol that i dont know about ? I have the following returning this year .,..

Felix - 12 starts last year at center , 36 career starts 3 time wac conference honors of some sort of the other.

Aguayo -12 starts last year , 16 career starts

Raschke - 12 starts last year , 15 career starts

Ribitzki - injured last year but started 11 at rt in 2006 as a soph and 6 as a redshirt freshman ....so basically he is a returning fulltime starter.

meek- the new face. 6-4 over 300 pounds. obviously the ?

Why is this line a concern ? I must have missed an injury,.

Utep rush defense was an atrocity last year and in that regard i would give a slight edge to the buffalo rush game but again ,.... the level of competition faced is very different. utep was facing guys like ferguson , Alridge, forte, fletcher, doss , kevin smith , chris johnson and the like ...much different than the types of running games that buffalo was facing ... not that jarvis and McRae were slouches but still a major difference there. When Buffalo rush defense face the non-MAC teams last year it was not pretty. 5.7 to rutgers, 4.9 to penn state , 5.5 to baylor , 4.3 to syracuse who averaged 2 yards a carry last year.


I guess my major concern at this point is that i missed some injuries on the offensive line that has me misevaluating it. let me know.


I will get some thoughts in here on the mtsu game and what i liked about mtsu a little bit.

 

[broadwayjoe]

you're right that should only be 2 OL starters, but both on the running (right) side of the line and they lose sears at tight end as well...

also, i have huntley starting (which would be another new starter), and not ribitzki (meek gets the start over him at OT from what i'm seeing) ...is this accurate??

you are really that high on jackson huh?? he seems like a 3rd down back to me, and from the articles i've read they weren't even sure he was going to carry the whole load up until just recently when about 3 other backs that were going to share the ball/compete for playing time got dinged up in practice....guy's 5'9 a buck 85...don't see him pounding through the line for 1100 yards and 17 tds like thomas did at all. i've only seen him in a couple of highlights though including that game-winning td (i believe) last year, so you most likely know more than me, but if they aren't even sure this guy is going to be able to carry the ball full-time i don't get how he's being considered just a small drop off from thomas...that kid was good

we obviously have a different idea of the level of talent and prestige of this conference, which is fine...agree to disagree i guess...this is a conf that was 2-23 last season vs bcs schools...which was the worst among non-bcs conferences...tulsa, ecu, and ucf then a sharp drop off a cliff to nothing imo. mac surely had a down year, but you seemed to imply that this is such a significantly superior level of competition and prestige in cusa and i just don't see as much of a difference as you do..

one more thing then i'll quit talking utep/buffalo hahahah....this was quoted from a utep article after a recent scrimmage...if their offense is having probs running the ball against that defense...look out!

The defense was, for the most part, ahead of the offense, particularly in the running game. The offense, however, took some shots and made some plays.

 

[RetroVK]

some quick hitters on some of the things i liked concerning the mtsu side prior to barrage of injuries. These are pre-injury opinions.

-mtsu is rarely a home dog and it is even more rare for them to be a home dog to a conference opponent. The last tiem they were a home dog in conference was to north texas in 2003 , the year north texas went undefeated in the sunbelt. mtsu was 3-1 ATS at home last year and covered the lone time they were a dog , 21-23 to virginia as a 10 point home dog.

-mtsu has deceiving talent on defense. Most reports of 5 or 6 returning starters are a bit deceiving. Most folks will point to the losses on the DL but look at the deceivingly good talent they bring back. The blue raiders are sliding hofacker out to DE and he was a solid starter at tackle for them the last two years. They are able to do this because they have a pleasant surprise and a talent at one DT and a third year first string starter returning at the NT. Smith is probably the most pleasant surprise for Stockstill and Brandon Perry was a highly regarded player when he came into cfb. They will likely split a lot of time this year no matter who ends up starting. And while McCoy is coming in to replace the kid who the cowboys drafted , the blue raiders didn't lose any production from the spot in the three games where he started there last year when Walden was out. shrug. So the DL looks pretty decent. at linebacker they return their two best guys and get addition by subtraction with graduation of shropshire. The secondary should be better than a year ago and returns a bunch of guys with starting experience even if limited. Definitely an upper half of the conference as far as secondaries. So you can see that they actually are a lot more experienced than they are made out to be ... but much like returning experience for Buffalo that i mentioned in the previous post , you do have to take talent into account.

-Major revenge spot for MTSU who got smoked by Troy last year . ( that is for those of you who love revenge angles , that game was actually one of the reasons i am laying off as the amount of improvement that needs to occur to keep this within the number looks large to me on paper )

-MTSU has superior quarterbacking. Lots of folks like Dasher , i prefer craddock , but either guy can get the job done.

-Desmond Gee is talented and versatile. look for a huge year out of this kid.

-Troy attempted 43 passes a game last year and now replace a stud qb and leader in haugabook and three of their top four pass catchers. The guy they are relying on to be their number one receiver was the third or fourth check down last year and had a qb capable of getting it to him. He has to beat number 1 DB's now. Not a lot of continuity with qb and receivers heading into game 1

-troy going with freshman punter and placekicker while replacing a great return man. MTSU with a special teams edge.

so i basically felt that mtsu defense and homefield edge were not getting enough credit and the loss of stud qb and wr's were not getting enough run as far as troyheading into game one. Throw in playmaking ability of craddock/dasher and i thought mtsu has a decent shot at the upset. But with decimation of the ofeensive line and troy sporting a pretty quality DL i had to back away.

 

[RetroVK]

we obviously have a different idea of the level of talent and prestige of this conference, which is fine...agree to disagree i guess...this is a conf that was 2-23 last season vs bcs schools...which was the worst among non-bcs conferences...tulsa, ecu, and ucf then a sharp drop off a cliff to nothing imo. mac surely had a down year, but you seemed to imply that this is such a significantly superior level of competition and prestige in cusa and i just don't see as much of a difference as you do..

The conferences are far more comparable this year. Cusa is downa couple of notches and the MAC is upa c ouple of notches. There is generally better talent in CUSA as compared to the MAC though. Disparity is pretty significant and likelymoreso when looking at buffalo talent vs what UTEP brings the last 6 or 7 years. So we disagree a little bit but i don't necessarily think that conference usa is better than the mac this year. i am high on jackson.... no reason not to be ... he has been a bit dinged up but will be fine for gameday. i agree with you that he is a notch below Thomas. As far as the running game in scrimmages so far , i am not overtly concerned. it is not the strength of the team by any stretch of the imagination and as with most scrimmages it is hard to determine if one unit is doing well because the other is bad or vice versa. Atleast it appears that they have progressed as far as learning the scheme. i actually would have been more concerned if the rshing game was pounding the defense in the scrimmage but would ahve taken that witha grain of salt as well.

This is how rivals has the ol depth chart as of 8-2-2008

<TABLE style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; WIDTH: 316px; PADDING-TOP: 0px" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=316 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle width=60 bgColor=#ffffff rowSpan=2>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 71 Mike Aguayo | 6-4, 290, Sr., 2V</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 70 Alex Solot | 6-8, 315, Jr., 1V</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle width=60 bgColor=#ffffff rowSpan=2>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 77 Tyler Ribitzki | 6-5, 300, Jr., 2V</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 70 Alex Solot | 6-8, 315, Jr., 1V</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle width=60 bgColor=#ffffff rowSpan=3>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 78 Cameron Raschke | 6-4, 315, Sr., 2V</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 65 Anthony McNac | 6-4, 345, Jr., 1V</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 69 Troy Henckel | 6-4, 295, Jr., </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle width=60 bgColor=#ffffff rowSpan=2>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 64 Colby Meek | 6-4, 305, Sr., 2V</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 74 Rod Huntley | 6-3, 310, So., 1V</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle width=60 bgColor=#ffffff rowSpan=2>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 62 Robby Felix | 6-3, 295, Sr., 3V</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=258 bgColor=#ffffff> 79 Tanner Cullumber | 6-4, 285, Jr., 1V</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

not saying this is necessarily accurate though.

 

[RetroVK]

Went to the kyotes den to try and find a more up to date depth chart but couldnt find one. Anyone that has one feel free to post and in fact , please post.

Not that the difference between ribitzki and huntley is of some incredible degree of significance.

 

[broadwayjoe]

huh that's interesting...maybe they made a recent change and moved one of the tackles with experience to guard...meek, robitzki, and aguayo are all listed as tackles in everything i've read and they have huntley starting...shouldn't matter too much though, both of them would have to adjust about the same way...at least they have some versatility/depth at o-line...buff certainly can't say that

 

[RetroVK]

huh that's interesting...maybe they made a recent change and moved one of the tackles with experience to guard...meek, robitzki, and aguayo are all listed as tackles in everything i've read and they have huntley starting...shouldn't matter too much though, both of them would have to adjust about the same way...at least they have some versatility/depth at o-line...buff certainly can't say that

Some of the sites i have been looking at do not even have Ribitzki listed on the roster. shrug..... like you said , it shouldnt matter much but now its almost like a quest to get the right information. i hate not being positive about what is going on.

 

[broadwayjoe]

since we've been goin back and forth on this...you feel like makin a friendly wager on this ? if buff -3 cashes, you have to chance your avatar for a week to:

if utep +3 cashes, i change mine to:

 

[RetroVK]

Sure i will make an avatar bet. going to have four figures on the game , i doubt sporting a utes avatar as a shot to my pride will hurt more than that.

 

[O-State]

The Troy MTSU game I see as a program game and I think Troy is more conditioned to win the game, IMO. This is the opener, starting inconference, the better team will win.

----MTSU<ST1 solid qb, rb, wr. Opened for 135ypg (3.5) LY 25 sacks. Lose RG, LT. RT Fisher best player injured? Sources saying not even a two deep to practice on OL. On DL had all 4 back LY dropped to 4.9ypc, 30 sacks. Lose a drafted DE and other stud DE. Perhaps reason LY for poor rush defense was inexp linebacker play, 3 new, all return. 46 in pass D ratings, lose both corners.

---Troy loses qb, rb, top 2 wr’s. LY replaced 4 OL starters and improved to 183 (4.7) allowing just 18 sacks. All return this year. DL LY allowed 4.9ypc, their worst ever. They lose two DT’s seniors fill in. Lose WLB. 49 in pass ratings LY both great cb’s depart, but solid replacements and senior safeties.

<O
Troy outgained SBC foes by 157ypg, 14 starters return.
Last year MTSU had only 3 new starters 18 seniors. This year they are one of the youngest teams in the country. Benefitted +11 in turnovers last year.


-----I can write all I want but this boils down to MTSU has NO offensive line to speak of, they have trouble praciticing, who knows how many freshman will get the nod, Troy is going to dominate the lines. MTSU might not be worse anywhere on D but are they That much better, probably not. Troy was only stopped running the ball once all last year, vs. Florida. Troy is going to push and power MTSU all over the field.

Also question MTSU's mindset. Oline decimation, a senior OL quit, rumor of coach telling administrators it might be a long year.

 

[O-State]

First Writeup of the year ……here goes ……..

THE GAME : TCU AT NEW MEXICO

THE LINE : TCU -5.5

THE PLAY: TCU -5.5

LAST YEAR : NEW MEXICO 0 TCU 37

-First thing to note is that TCU has defeated new mexico each of the last 3 years since joining the mwc. They covered 5.5 points in each of those contests , winning by an average score of 37-16. The lone game at new mexico however ended 27-21.

-New Mexico is coming off of a season where they over-achieved and TCU is coming off a season where they under-achieved. I think this is one of the reasons we receive value in the line.

-What happened last year to tcu was very interesting. They began the year handling Baylor 21-0 , the game prior to their much anticipated game against texas. TCU led Texas 10-0 at halftime though their offense was being completely shut down by the longhorns. The game was tied at 10 after the third quarter and then a combination of turnovers , coupled with a tiring of the defense led to a blowout result in the fourth quarter. This was a very demoralizing loss. The next game , TCU traveled to Colorado springs for a game against air force. TCU completely dominated the game. Completely. But despite this they found a way to give up the lead late in the game and eventually lost in overtime. Demoralizing loss yet again , and their preseason vision of going to a bcs game was over 3 weeks into the year. The team was also going through a lot of injuries and off the field issues. Rumors of steroid use surrounded their star defensive lineman Tommy Blake and he missed several games with “personal issues” ( likely getting the roids out of his system ). When he returned he did not play as well as the player before the “personal issues”. In addition to this injury, the team was playing without their best offensive weapon in RB aaron brown. The result was that TCU was sluggish in the middle of the year until Patterson was able to right the ship and the team closed strong. 37 pt win over unm , just a 5 pt loss at byu , a 24 pt win vs. unlv , a 12 point win at sdsu and a Texas bowl victory over Houston 20-13. Have to be impressed with how this team responded down the stretch. They finished with an 8-5 mark and outgained opponents on average by a margin of 387 yds to 325 yards , and out first downed them 22.2 to 17.5. They suffered due to injuries , turnovers, off the field problems, early season motivation loss and some unfortunate bounces. They were better than they showed.

-New mexico was up and down a lot of the year. They finished 9-4 and I would argue they were the worst 9 win team in all of cfb last year. While they suffered a defeat to utep to start the year in a game in which they dominated , they managed to pull off miraculous victories in several games throughout the year. They were outplayed at SDSU in victory. The sdst qb rushed for a first down that would have put the Aztecs into victory formation but he fumbled on the play. UNM punched one in with under 20 seconds to go to win by 3, they then got uncharacteristic fumbling from air force ( 5) to win a game by 3 where they were outplayed. They then barely squeeked by a csu team by 3 where they were once again out first downed and out yardaged. Even their win over unlv wasn’t much to look at ( I know because I watched it ). They then went on to trounce Nevada in their bowl game which they were fortunate enough to play in their home stadium for. Hats off to Rocky Long for getting that much out of that talent.

-Last years game was nothing short of domination between these two teams.
First downs -----TCU 23 UNM 6
Rushing yards ..TCU 238 UNM 28
Passing yards …TCU 183 UNM 91

So with perspective , lets look at this years match up.

TCU Offense vs. UNM Defense

O-line vs. D-line --I think a pleasant surprise down the stretch last year for TCU was the development of the offensive line and a more productive rushing attack.

-The offensive line for TCU weighs in at about 295-296 pounds per player and the UNM d-line comes in at about 283 per player. Both of these are fairly normal , so TCU does not have a dominant size edge or deficiency vs. unm.

-New mexico plays a 3-3-5 defense and a lot of the rush defense is based upon linebackers pursuing to the ball. TCU played vs. 3 down lineman systems several times last year and thrived against it. I already mentioned the new mexico game from last year. They also played the following teams and had balanced success least year offensively vs. 3 down linemen , Air Force , Wyoming , Houston and BYU. They were exceptional in pass protection vs. these systems as well. They were sacked just 8 times in those 5 games, including ZERO by unm last year. They attempted 173 passes combined … a sack every 34.6 times they dropped back to pass. Their season average was 1 sack every 19.3 pass attempts. They prefer to scheme protection against 3DL as opposed to 4DL. This trend is true of 2006 as well, where they also had better pass protection vs. 3 DL, and amazingly UNM had ZERO sacks against TCU that year as well.

-This year TCU returns 4 starters to the ol from a year ago with 52 combined starts from last year attributed to these guys. As mentioned above , they improved down the stretch last year and they are said to have increased their strength year over year. RG Montgomery alone increased his size by almost ten pounds over last year. Very experienced offensive line , which not only has room for improvement but showed making those strides last year.

-The New Mexico defensive line is the opposite of the tcu o-line. They return one fulltime starter and just 59 tackles from last years unit. The two starters that they field at the two DE positions have ZERO combined starts lifetime and both are upperclassmen. Not a good sign. In addition , they lose their big disruptor up front from last year in Tyler Donovan. Donovan has twice as many tackles for loss as the next nearest lobo and was also the leading sack man. The defensive line returns 2.5 sacks from last years team. In fact the only experienced guy on the dl is the nose tackle who has just 1 sack in his 20 starts at UNM. The defense is not designed for NT sacks because the DL is mainly meant for leverage in this system but that is pretty amazing.

-The conclusion on this matchup is that the experience and talent level of the TCU o-line , should have a distinct advantage over the UNM inexperienced line ( especially in the first game of the year ) and this should most blatantly be visible in the pass protection.

TCU RB VS UNM LINEBACKERS

I could have lumped this in with the line matchups but as most of you know , it is the trenches where I think football games are won and lost and I wanted to emphasize that in my first writeup of the year.\

-TCU finally has a healthy Aaron Brown to hand the ball off to. After sharing half the carries in 2006 he averaged over 5 a carry and rushed for over 800 yards. Team was ready for a breakout season from him last year but he was hindered by injuries and managed just 106 carries. That really hurt this team last year but it also helps them for this year. Turner emerged as a quality back and they now have incredible depth and experience at the position with 3 different RB getting over 50 carries last year. They have additional depth from backup WR Ryan Christian who started a game at rb for them last year and carried the ball 88 times. Turner who showed promise last year , hurt his knee . At the time of this writing I am not sure of his status for the game but have capped it out as if he wont be playing. Aaron Brown will be the workhorse. It should also be noted that Dalton is a very underrated as far as his mobility and you could also see him pick up some yards with his legs as well. It should also be noted that there are some rumors floating around concerning aaron browns status with the team but I havent seen anything to confirm that and am assuming he will be available. If nto atleast they have quality depth this year.

-UNM linebacking appears adequate to me. Mcpeek/clark combo at the hybrid position of the 3-3-5 are both solid players. Since most people consider these glorified safeties ( BAN ,MINER, LOBO whatever ) as linebackers , I will as well. At the more conventional line backing spots the lobos return just 2 starts from last year but they do return 96 tackles to the starting unit from last year. One of the main concerns will be sophomore with one career tackle. The other concern is that this is one of the smallest line backing groups in the entire nation. The lobo defensive line is huge , designed to create leverage at the line of scrimmage while the linebackers pursue to the ball. Not only does the front seven of the lobos lose 3 of their top 5 tacklers but with mcpeek back but since mcpeek and clark don’t rate to be on the field much at the same time , they also lose a tackler in that regard. Just too small a line backing unit , replacing too many fulltime starters and expecting them to gel into the type of unit that can compete with the tCU talent of the world , in their first game together seems difficult. Have a much better chance of gelling against a lesser talent team like sdsu , buffalo , uab etc etc . Throw in the fact that they lose their DC in lewis this year to Utep , who was the mastermind of their defensive system and I look for an overall step backwards for the run defense this year for UNM that should be at its worst of the year at the beginning of the season. Perhaps not the right section to mention this in but the lobos will regress in EVERY one of the major three defensive categories this year because of their front seven. Opposition Scoring , rushing offense and passing offensive numbers are going way up this year.

TCU QB AND WR VS UNM SECONDARY

QB --Andy Dalton had one of the most overlooked red shirt freshman seasons of the year in 2007 , imo. He set TCU completion record despite the backup qb stealing 69 pass attempts from him at different points in the year. Very impressive for a first year starter. He rates to improve this year with more experience and with a better offensive line and a better receiving group to work with , coupled with a superior rush attack year over year …. Looks like he could have an enormous season. He is an elusive tackle in the backfield and his feet got him over 400 yards ont eh ground last year in under a hundread attempts. He did lack consistency last year and some of his untimely interceptions led to TCU’s problem all year of racking up yards but failing to finish with TD. A regression by the QB position here would be one of the most shocking regressions of the year. In the event of injury , the backup Jackson did get some snaps and pass attempts in last year and had an additional 44 pass attempts in 2006. So while an injury here would hurt them it would not be as devastating as you might think

WR--For TCU backers this unit and how it matches up against UNM is the question mark that you should be most afraid of in this game. They lose both of their leading receivers last year in Dickerson (graduation) and Massey (grades ). Those two guys combined for 69 grabs a year ago. Jpicks provided me with some information concerning the depth chart now that Massey will not be available (thanks mwc whore). Bryant , Young and Kerley/johnson should be the group though others will get starts and snaps. I don’t have the confidence at this point in the offseason to guarantee those starters either. This set of receivers is more athletic and explosive but lack a lot of experience. The wr group as a whole returns roughly 75-80 catches from a year ago and I would not expect this unit to be close to its best the first game of the year. They do have the second best receiving (byu pitta ) tight end in the league in Reagan which should really help Dalton out , especially against this particular defense. The running game should be good and the pass protection should be good , how open these receivers can get against new mexico is a very big question.

UNM secondary --Deandre Wright is the best cover corner in the mwc ( sorry utes fans ) and Senior Quin on the other corner has talent as well. I think Wright should have little problem containing the number one option of the tcu pass attack at wr …. If there was one. The TCU pass attack should be very balanced so the shutdown ability doesn’t help them as much as against some other teams. But TCU and Dalton won’t be looking to beat Wright , and that allows the remainder of the new mexico secondary to rotate to the other side of the field for pass defense as well as to allow for more men to work in run support and pass rush duties. His presence is very helpful to the UNM defense… very similar to what Aqib Talib allowed Kansas to do last year defensively. The safeties return one full time starter and another upperclassman who has seen his share of action. All in all this lobo secondary seems to match up decently with the TCU receivers.

WHAT TO EXPECT

TCU rushed the ball for 238 yards a year ago and I would expect that with an experienced offensive line that TCU attacks with the run game as the primary foundation. Without the penetrating , attacking style of their best player in the front seven last year and basically two inexperienced DE , the frogs should have an effective time reaching the second level of the lobo defense. There is absolutely no reason to believe that TCU does not win the battle at the line of scrimmage on this side of the ball and Dalton should have a lot of time to throw the football. The young athletic receivers should be able to have some success vs. the unm secondary as long as Dalton has developed enough to not throw into coverage packages. This TCU team really matured offensively down the stretch and it is also the time that these younger receivers began to shine a little bit for the frogs. They averaged 427 yards of offense per game and 25.6 first downs per game over the last seven , including their bowl game. 5 returning starters to this somewhat unique style of defense for new mexico and the architect of that defense Osia Lewis is gone to UTEP ( a subject I will get into later regarding this UNM team ). This should mean a more difficult learning curve for the new defensive starters. The offensive core of TCU is back while UNM goes from returning 10 defensive starters last year , to just 5 this year. Look for TCU to both ground out first downs and occasionally hit the receivers for decent chunks of yardage , and also look for play action pass to set up some nice looks for the TE reagan.

UNM offense vs. TCU defense

O-line vs. D-line. As I have stated ad nauseam , the trenches are where games are won and lost for the most part. New Mexico is going to have to rely on a bunch of juco guys and some inexperienced guys to gel together quickly if they are to get the job done. It gets even worse for them in that they have just 14 returning starts to the offensive line and 9 of those are from Center erik cook. The concern here is that his 9 previous starts were at tackle and guard. This will be his first start at center. The remaining five starts are from LT hatten who has some power at that position returns after he was suspended a year ago for missing a practice without an excuse ( more to it I am sure ). The word out of the spring was that juco Contreras might be ok for the center duties which would allow Cook to play his more conventional positions , at 6-6 , porterie probably would like to look over the top of someone else. This is one of those areas that you need to be careful of when reading your phil steele magazine , as his projections for the offensive line are just that … projections and there could be a lot of movement on this line. I would be surprised to see Cannon start the opening game against tcu at left guard. The fact that they have not solidified who is playing where , especially at the center position makes cohesiveness even more difficult for them. No matter who starts where , they will be a big unit that will average out to about 308 pounds per player. The losses for UNM on the offensive line are just too much for them to overcome with these players this early in the season. They have to replace not only 50 o-line starts from a year ago but replace two first team mwc players , one of which is in the nfl now. Potential to be good later in the year , I think, but impossible to expect them to be prepared for this one.
Tcu must also replace two big time defensive ends in tommy blake and chase Ortiz who is now with the browns. The combo is difficult to replace but tcu looks to have reloaded across the defensive line. Panfil started 6 games last year while blake was taking care of his “personal issues” (I already told you what is suspected of going on there ) and quite frankly he performed well above expectations with 37 tackles , 2.5 sacks. What is really good news is that the depth of talent behind Panfil at this spot is astounding. TCU will continue to produce nfl quality DL for years to come I think. The other end , Hughes has good speed and also diagnoses plays well. The biggest strength (outside of LB ) of the entire TCU football team is their defensive tackles/NT. Vess returns from a suspension for something lol… here is an exerpt from blue ribbon concerning him …

the return of senior James Vess (6-3, 282) from a season-long suspension for a violation of university policy. As for what the violation was, perhaps no program in the country is more tight-lipped about such information as TCU.
Whatever the reason for his departure a year ago, Vess is a big-time nose tackle that should vie for all-conference honors. As a sophomore in 2006, he tallied four sacks in the final seven games and twice in that span was chosen TCU Defensive Player of the Week.

In his absence Griffin obtained a lot of experience and allows for depth in case Vess or DT cody moore were to get hurt as well as spelling them at times. Moore is the other tackle and just as sound as you could want at that position. This line is absolutely LOADED with talent. In fact , despite my projections at the two DE positions , the young talent is so good , that either one of those two excellent DE could be second string come the end of august. This is the best DL in the MWC and it would be hard to imagine that a group of juco players and inexperienced players at UNM could come together in time to be cohesive enough to contain them. It is this matchup , most of all that makes TCU look so good to me in this game.

UNM RB VS TCU LINEBACKERS

Have to love the running back situation if you are a lobo fan. Rodney Ferguson is coming off back to back first team mwc seasons and emerging late last year was Paul Baker. I would not be surprised to see UNM use more two back sets this year than in the previous few years , despite OC Baldwin love for the one back sets. With breaking in a new offensive line and having a quality blocking fullback at their disposal , the lobos may have more two back two receiver sets than last year. With the quality and depth at this position , you would think that Rocky Long leans heavily on the rush game again this year and I would expect them to average over 40 rushes a game. You have to keep in mind that ferguson had been running behind some pretty decent lines the last few years in Albuquerque and those holes just won’t be there to start this year unless the line has come together incredibly fast. Ferguson is also a good option out of the backfield.
Here is the problem. We have already discussed how TCU matches up with the offensive line of UNM and the linebackers that sit behind that DL are considered as a unit to be in the top 10 to 15 in the country by those that consider hodge more of a linebacker than safety and by those that consider it a two linebacker system with a third quality linebacker off the field. Phillips and henson are the projected starters and Washington will spell them in certain situations. All three are of incredible quality. The above mentioned Hodge is mult-talented and used heavily in TCU blitz packages and is listed as a strong safety. Whether you consider him a safety or a linebacker , you have to consider him a quality run supporter and a quality pass rusher. The best linebacking corps in the entire conference as well. As you can see , TCU has a formidable front seven that is the cornerstone of the best defense in the conference. To make matters worse for Ferguson is that Patterson is simply a master at foiling rush attacks. This has been the case at TCU for years and years now , since he took over the program. I have often been quoted as saying “you can’t run on tcu”.

UNM QB AND WR VS TCU SECONDARY

Porterie returns at qb for new mexico and he is adequate but hardly a guy that impressed me a lot last year. I was able to watch many a UNM game as it turns out and I think this guy can be flustered by pass rush early in the game. To his credit he had a decent td/int ratio and threw for a lot of yards last year in his first full season as a starter. But his supporting cast ( while I think it was a bit overrated last year ) was much better. We have already discussed the step backwards they rate to have in protection , and the fact that ferguson is a skillful back but what will just kill porterie this year is the loss of WR from 2007. Two of the three starting wide receivers from last year made first team all mwc and both are now on nfl rosters. They lose 167 catches and 2156 yards receiving from those two guys. Impossible to replace that. Their three projected starters for this year have just 29 catches and 230 receiving yards. This is one of the largest regressions year over year in receiving units that you will ever see. With little actual game time experience together , and with porterie having less time than average to throw , it is hard to fathom a ton of success in the passing game for this team. Also , since I believe that UNM will consistently be working from behind the chains, the situations in which they will be passing will not be ideal.
TCU counters the inexperience on the outside for UNM with two incredibly experienced juniors at CB. Both priest and sanders have started since their freshaman years and have a combined 52 starts at CB. Big advantage to the horned frogs here. They have a mixture of experience and youth at safety and it is clearly the weakest spot on the field for them , no matter what you consider hodge to be.

WHAT TO EXPECT

Well, I would expect nothing less than complete defensive domination from TCU. This TCU defense is going to be tough for fine oiled machines to move the ball against without a single glaring weakness to exploit outside of secondary depth. With the state of unm receiving unit , that seems unlikely here. TCU rates to be in the backfield ALL day long for negative plays against this UNM club. There is no way that a lobo offensive line can generate a running attack against this TCU front seven with a makeshift line with little to no experience and at this point without even knowing which player is at which position. Contreras or cook at center ?? Cook or cannon at guard , etc etc…. how could they possibly be prepared for what TCU brings to the table as far as defensive schemes are concerned ?? UNM mustered 6 first downs with a better offensive line and two nfl caliber wr last year against this team. I cannot figure out how new mexico gets first downs. In order for it to occur the new mexico line would not only have to mature faster than any of us could imagine but it would also have to achieve well beyond its projected talent level vs. the best defensive line the conference has to offer in my estimation. In addition , it is too much to ask for this unm receiving group to punish TCU either. Just an incredible disparity of experience and talent between the lobo offense and the TCU defense and while that disparity will be closed by seasons end , it will be most noticeable here in the first week.

SPECIAL TEAMS AND COACHING

Both TCU and UNM lose a lot in their special teams and for the most part I have to call this a wash until I see what the new kickers and returners ( risk brown? ) have to show for themselves. The one advantage that TCU carries into this area of the game is that Daryl Washington is the best kick blocker in all of college football.

COACHING

I am sure most consider patterson to be a better coach than rocky long but Long has been just tremendous in exceeding expectations in Albuquerque. The lobos do have to replace Lewis at DC and while Reffet has been with the team for awhile now it has to be considered a slight edge to tcu in that capacity.

INTANGILES

-While most don’t think of it right away , Albuquerque is at 5300 feet roughly and that is something that does have the ability to effect incoming teams from texas.
-UNM is in the midst of some offseason turmoil. The defensive coordinator was let go amid academic fraud allegations. It has been an ongoing issue the entire offseason to date.
-TCU has avoided major offseason issues that plagued them last year other than Massey failing to keep his grades up
-TCU is coming off an underachieving year , in which a slow start contributed to motivational issues a year ago. New mexico is coming off an overachieving year.
-TCU was given the option of either playing this conference game at the end of august or November 29<SUP>th</SUP>. Given the youth and inexperience of unm, patterson and the frogs selected the earliest date possible.
-TCU under patterson , plays incredible football on the road. They are 25-16 straight up on the road and they played well in every single road game a year ago , save Wyoming where they suffered a 3 point loss
-TCU has only been out first downed one time outside the state of Texas in the last two years ( ironically to new mexico in 2006 13-15 ) in a total of 11 games.



Final conclusion -- TCU has all the necessary tools to match up and handle this unm team. TCU rates to be able to run the ball and pass protect , setting up manageable situations for Dalton to hit his receivers and TE . The Frogs need only to manage the football offensively to get the cover here. New Mexico simply should not be able to move the ball with any success against this TCU defense with a slapped together offensive line and green receiving crew. Porterie while he should be improved as a qb , has shown the ability to get flustered by good pass rushes and with TCU in the backfield all game and no stud receivers to bail him out, he is more likely to make errors in this game than any other game on their schedule. Given the frogs past history with this team I would not expect them to be looking ahead to their home contest with TAMU ( a much easier spot for unm ) but it is far more likely than TCU not being ready here. I say TCU big in this one ……….TCU 30 UNM 10

Wanted to chime in on this, TCU very attractive but some questions and I wonder if it's a trap game on the road.


---I agree on all counts about the experience factor and edge head to head between the two teams. new d coordinator for NM definitely not a big deal though promote from within. Concern would be with best secondary in WAC they just load up blitzing and stopping the run. Despite box being loaded those corners could shut the questionable TCU wr’s down. The best way to combat it is throwing to the TE, something TCU doesn’t do a lot. 11 catches in 10 games played (by Reagan). <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com

Dalton</ST1</st1:City> is somewhat turnover prone against such a tough secondary might spell trouble. Offensive coordinator for <st1:State w:st="on">New Mexico</st1:State> is a good one, was at Michigan State before.

<ST1BIGGEST concern for me is road woes. Almost <ST1<st1laceName w:st="on">Wake</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">Forest</st1laceType></ST1 like, I need to know they are going into the year with an emphasis on the road especially that first game. <O></O>
<O> </O>
In the last 3 years, TCU is 1-5 straight up on Thursday nights but 29-3 on all other days.
<O></O>
In 06 they were 0-6 against the spread on the road. <O></O>
2-3-1 in 03, 0-5 in 04, 4-2 in 05, 0-6 in 06 0-4-2 in 07<O></O>
<O> </O>
6-18 against the spread on the road the last 5 years<O></O>
<O> </O>
To be fair I looked at the Home record.
2-4 in 03, 3-3 in 04, 5-0 in 05, 4-1 in 06, and 4-2 in 07<O></O>
<O> </O>
18–10 at home last 5 years<O></O>


---something about this game might spell trap and I belive jpicks said he wasn't confident in this game anymore.

 

[RetroVK]

your numbers are wrong.

in 2007 they were 1-4-1 against the spread on the road ( deceiving but thats what it was ...see afa , texas )

in 2006 they were 3-2-1 on the road ATS

in 2005 they were 3-2 ATS on the road

in 2004 they were 0-5 ATS on the road ( the year they went 5-6 , the one down year for the program )

in 2003 they were 2-4 ATS on the road

in 2002 they were 2-2-1 ATS on the road

in 2001 they were 4-3 ATS on the road

It might end up being a trap ,,,,, can't account for the unexpected. just have to cap for the expected. there is no negative spot angle here , in fact tcu picked the date to play the game.

 

[RetroVK]

going to grab some dinner. be back later though.

 

[RetroVK]

I think this will mark the fourth straight year that i am betting tcu against unm. I cashed all three tickets. They own the lobos.

UNM is in the midst of some offseason turmoil. The defensive coordinator was let go amid academic fraud allegations. It has been an ongoing issue the entire offseason to date.

NCAA handed down its ruling today ....

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=col0>New Mexico gets three years of probation for academic fraud


</TD><TD class=col1>Story Highlights

• The committee concluded that assistants improperly helped a player and recruits
• The NCAA infractions committee also imposed scholarship reductions
• New Mexico had self-imposed some penalties after reviewing the coaches' actions

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>



The full story is in RJ's week1 thread if it interests you. This is more off the field distractions for this game for UNM. I couldn't have asked for much better timing as far as when the ruling came down. So for however much it has been a distraction so far, it should be even all that more now. yay.

 

[pags11]

O-State I agree completely with your analysis on the TCU vs. New Mexico game...

 

[Blue_Chip]

Sure i will make an avatar bet. going to have four figures on the game , i doubt sporting a utes avatar as a shot to my pride will hurt more than that.

Boy, what a win that will be! Not only do you cash a four-figure bet, but you also get to sport the avatar of one of the best universities in the nation.

 

[Blue_Chip]

It might end up being a trap ,,,,, can't account for the unexpected. just have to cap for the expected. there is no negative spot angle here , in fact tcu picked the date to play the game.

your above statement sums up my thoughts on this game and the reasoning behind my bet on tcu laying a td on the road.

 

[bull]

Super stuff, Kyle . It is evident that you spend a lot of time on CFB, and your willingness to share is very much appreciated. Just what kind of brain cells do you possess that allows you to store so much information. Awesome !

I'll add just a comment or two and then post a couple of leans that I haven't seen talked about.

Your comment about being wrong 42-44 % of the time jumped out at me.
What this tells me is that even someone with wealth of knowledge and gambling experience recognizes that the chance of losing any one game is far greater than most people realize. No matter how good a side looks, there is a 42% chance that it loses. That's my take anyway, and I've long been a believer that if I can't see one reason in the world to take team A over team B , then I'm missing something and will pass the game.

Like Broadway ( I think it was Broadway) I don't like to play the big point spread games. Case in point is your play on Idaho. I'm not saying it's the wrong side and I wish you luck. I'm no zona fan myself; feel they have been overrated for a few years as people are saying that this is the year Stoops#2 emulates his brother. But you as much as concede that Arizona is probably 28 points better than Idaho. You take Idaho because you are reading into the coach's mind that he will not seek a lot of scoring in this game. Just a win. Although you make some very logical arguments as to why Stoops will not roll it up, I find any game where the coach can pretty much name his score is a game I care not to bet. Some dandies this week, BTW. We've got Tressel, Stoops#1, Leavitt, Mangino- just to name a few.

So, breaking my own rule, I can't imagine Eastern Michigan ever laying 38 points but I wonder if this isn't a chance for me to make an exception.
I can't recall this team ever going into a game KNOWING they are going to win.

Northwestern laying 12 to Syracuse hasn't been mentioned in your thread, has it? I see a likely improved team with a big edge at QB playing a home opener against a program that just may not have hit rock bottom yet.

ULaLaf +10 1/2 at Southern Miss is a talk me out of. From here it looks like UlaLaf will be able to run the ball and control the line of scrimmage and the clock against a team that is starting over under a new coach - first HC job isn't it?

One sgain thanks for all the hard work and insight that you share with all of us. GL for a great season.:tiphat:
bull

 

[broadwayjoe]

Sure i will make an avatar bet. going to have four figures on the game , i doubt sporting a utes avatar as a shot to my pride will hurt more than that.

hahah i hear ya...i'm only on buff for around half of 4 figures, but it'll serve as a nice lil salt in the wound for us. it's funny to me that 3 of my 5 or 6 good buddies that i talk gambling with pretty extensively (the bad beat support group) are on the same page as you big time and each have utep for multiple thousands of dollars (so at least if my bet loses i'll likely get a few free drinks at the bar). so i'll most likely be sitting there thursday night watching four games that 85% of the US population could two fucks about, listening to a live stream of the utep/buff game and personally knowing of people with wagers in the vicinity of 10-12k deciding whether it will be a good night or not by the outcome of previously 4-8 shitty utep beating previously 5-7 shitty buffalo. and some people say i'm addicted to gambling...

 

[RetroVK]

Added UTEP +135 on the moneyline today. Not going to lie this is probably my favorite play that i have made so far.

There are some concerns right now in minerland about the receiving corp depth but they are happy with the starters they will be putting on the field. Probably the one area i am most worried about seeing an injury pop up for. The defense is by all accounts a major improvement year over year but sometimes it is hard to figure out whether you are getting honest assessments or fluff coming from the coaches , players , assistants , local bloggers , beat writers and the like. All seem to agree that the O-line will be their biggest strength ( i think qb but whatever )

Wanted to touch on O-state comments about the TCU game he made. I focused on some inaccurate ATS numbers he threw out there but didn't really address what he said and i think it needs addressing because it is a very valid argument for the lobo side of the game. The match up of the tcu wr against the unm secondary is the one major concern. i agree completely with that. I think Wright is the kind of guy who might be able to allow unm to do some of the things you suggest , ,,,, blitz packages , loading up vs the run and such. Hey , if there were not some concerns the game wouldn't be lined within 1 score. I guess my analysis seems to indicate that TCU will get to choose when to load the box and that UNM will have to load the box and that makes things very different. TCU should have more 1 on 1 opportunities on the outside than unm over the course of the game. It's a concern though ,,,, and if UNM covers the spread it will likely be from either the exact thing o-state mentions or a bad turnover ratio.

Also wanted to remind people as we get nearer to game week that checking the weather for games is often an overlooked angle ... imagine thunderstorms in gainesville or Manhattan or lawrence... if you don't think the line is going to move against you it might be worth waiting on playing those big favorites and seeing the conditions. Tough in that i think the joe college bettor tends to push favorites upward and a lot of the big favorites lines have already been hit downward for the most part other than florida.

just some thoughts and updating on a made play. appreciate all the input in this thread so far , especially that which disagrees with my opinion and thought process. From disagreement we learn , not from agreement.

be back later with more and will try to address any of the posts that i have not answered yet ...try my best to be as inclusive and helpful as i can but can get sidetracked sometimes. be patient with me.

 

[TexasKevin]

Thanks for the pile of info on UTEP. This is the one bet I made that was nagging me, but now I feel better about it.

I was trying something new this year as an exercise. Normally I look at the spreads pick some that the lines look interesting and research. This year I read everything I could on each game decided on where I would set the line and see how they matched up. For the most part I was within a point or two of the actual line the books came up with.
UTEP was the only game I was in the opposite direction I had them at -10.
Made me wonder if I was way off in reading things.

 

[RetroVK]

Thanks for the pile of info on UTEP. This is the one bet I made that was nagging me, but now I feel better about it.

I was trying something new this year as an exercise. Normally I look at the spreads pick some that the lines look interesting and research. This year I read everything I could on each game decided on where I would set the line and see how they matched up. For the most part I was within a point or two of the actual line the books came up with.
UTEP was the only game I was in the opposite direction I had them at -10.
Made me wonder if I was way off in reading things.

I made utep a favorite but not a ten point favorite. still i think you should feel good about the bet. another concern that we should have on the utep side is their inability to finish games out , not that Buffalo is known for doing that either.

The bolded part of your above qoute is so important in my opinion. Sometimes we see a line and have a visceral reaction to it that creates a bias for us in regards to a game. If you have your own capped out line prior to line release from the books , you have a more objective starting point.

lets cash kevin !

 

[RetroVK]

Super stuff, Kyle . It is evident that you spend a lot of time on CFB, and your willingness to share is very much appreciated. Just what kind of brain cells do you possess that allows you to store so much information. Awesome !

I'll add just a comment or two and then post a couple of leans that I haven't seen talked about.

Your comment about being wrong 42-44 % of the time jumped out at me.
What this tells me is that even someone with wealth of knowledge and gambling experience recognizes that the chance of losing any one game is far greater than most people realize. No matter how good a side looks, there is a 42% chance that it loses. That's my take anyway, and I've long been a believer that if I can't see one reason in the world to take team A over team B , then I'm missing something and will pass the game.

Like Broadway ( I think it was Broadway) I don't like to play the big point spread games. Case in point is your play on Idaho. I'm not saying it's the wrong side and I wish you luck. I'm no zona fan myself; feel they have been overrated for a few years as people are saying that this is the year Stoops#2 emulates his brother. But you as much as concede that Arizona is probably 28 points better than Idaho. You take Idaho because you are reading into the coach's mind that he will not seek a lot of scoring in this game. Just a win. Although you make some very logical arguments as to why Stoops will not roll it up, I find any game where the coach can pretty much name his score is a game I care not to bet. Some dandies this week, BTW. We've got Tressel, Stoops#1, Leavitt, Mangino- just to name a few.

So, breaking my own rule, I can't imagine Eastern Michigan ever laying 38 points but I wonder if this isn't a chance for me to make an exception.
I can't recall this team ever going into a game KNOWING they are going to win.

Northwestern laying 12 to Syracuse hasn't been mentioned in your thread, has it? I see a likely improved team with a big edge at QB playing a home opener against a program that just may not have hit rock bottom yet.

ULaLaf +10 1/2 at Southern Miss is a talk me out of. From here it looks like UlaLaf will be able to run the ball and control the line of scrimmage and the clock against a team that is starting over under a new coach - first HC job isn't it?

One sgain thanks for all the hard work and insight that you share with all of us. GL for a great season.:tiphat:
bull

Unfortunately it isn't easy to make money beating the books and there are no such thing as locks. Happy to hit at a good enough clip to turn a profit. I hope to have a season where i hit at a clip like what you were doing in d1aa in 2006.

As for the idaho game , i think arizona offense can almost name their score ... but i also wouldn't be surprised to see idaho hit 30 ... that is not what i think they score but it wouldn't surprise me in the least. So while "reading the mind" of stoops a little bit is a factor it is just one of quite a few for that game.

eastern michigan can cover that number against indiana state. it is hard to believe ... but i think indiana st lost 8 or 9 of their 11 games last year by atleast 30 points. That is a pretty bad football team and i think they are replacing half of their starters. Been a good month since i looked at that one though but i remember checking it out when the fcs lines first showed up.. i basically never lay 38 but i wouldnt touch indiana state. bad bad bad.

i sort of liked the syracuse side of that bet when the line first came out. They have suffered some key injuries/academicineligibles though which made me sour on them. The wr williams being the big loss but they also have a decent qb and two really quality ( surprisingly enough ) running backs. Right side of the o-line is experienced so a lot will depend on the left side as far as maintaining possession. I also think that the cuse defense is a little bit better than most people think. I really like the northwestern team this year and will probably be playing them in some dog situations in conference play but i hate them as dd favorites and they are a terrible home favorite. They have now failed to cover in six consecutive situations as a home favorite. With the syracuse running game likely improved i don't like the situation. I know they are just waiting to hire Turner Gil up there in syracuse and this will probably be robinsons last year but i am jsut not comfortable with northwestern as a DD favorite. I actually played them as a dd favorite last year vs eastern mich and was very very fortunate to win that. VERY.

For me it would be ULL or nothing because i don't trust southern miss but Fletcher is a terrible matchup for the ragin cajuns. They gave up 228 yards a game on the ground last year and lost all three of their ooc road games by 2 td or more. Also, i am a little bit leery because a lot of smiss problems a year ago were injury related , especially at the QB position. So i wouldn't be surprised if smiss is one of the few improved teams in the conference usa ( down year for that conference i think). Really think that was a bad fire/forceout of Bower. Gun to my head i would go with the dog but their run defense is so pathetic and matches up so poorly with smiss that i dont want any part of it. First home game for new coach after a controversial change may mean they want to make a statement too. Not sure they are capable of making statements but i am staying away.


gearing up for some ivy league action , bull ?

 

[bull]

thanks kyle
Ivy League is still a few weeks away.
Pretty slim card this week other than the mismatches already up at 5dimes. They won't post the intra-subdivision stuff till next week, if at all.
I expect Sept 6 will be the real kick-off for me.
Yes, that 2006 season in 1-AA was a sweetheart for me. Glad someone remembered.
GL I think you've convinced me to make aplay on my gut choiuce, UTEP.
I'll be on the sidelines but rooting for you in that Idaho game.

 

[RetroVK]

Gang I eliminated South carolina today from my possible plays. I made a tiny play on the UNDER50 in that game and I don't particularly like having two bets on the same game. If i get the game wrong it gets too expensive. Also, the favorite to the under is not correlated the way that one would want to bet both sides that way. favorites to the over and dogs to the under are the way to go. With mounting injuries on the wolfpack side i actually was starting to really like the gamecocks here but i am letting it go. Books seem to think that the gamecocks get to 31 and even with liking them , i am not so sure.... my final score prediction south carolina 27-ncstate 13



keeping track of all my exotics and all of my totals bets that are wagered at less than a unit in my exotics thread and not here. So the under bet won't appear in this thread. Only full unit sides and totals bets will be in my "time to post" threads this year.

 

[horses]

Gang I eliminated South carolina today from my possible plays.

Not happy to see this, but I certainly understand not wanting to lay DD to an O'Brien coached squad.

 

[O-State]

Yeah Vegas i had correct #'s except for 2006, not sure what I was looking at there quite frankly. I only went back to 03 BTW.

I see the TCU/New Mexico game in comparison to the Troy/MTS game. Both road favs inconference. I like both but am much more comfortbale with Troy on the road. I'll be the first to tell you experience wise that TCU looks like a solid choice, but New Mexico scares me more than MTS.

---bull brought up Southern Miss Louisiana Lft. That game nobody has talked about but that looks like the TCU game experience edge wise. SM loses entire defensive front four and 3 Olinemman. And Lafayette is getting 10 and a half?

I like Northwestern. The Cuse have not fared well at all against spread teams. N-western brings guys back everywhere but Oline, and with that team it's roll outs and stretch running plays they never falter in stats dramatically after losing top oline.

The reason for optimism in Evanston stems from new coordinators. They bring in Wisconsin's D coord who will bring an aggressive style not sit back in zone and give up yards. The new O coordinator will also stick to Sutton more instead of passing the game away.


Kyle,
---I think it's wise to stay away from Stanford, South Carolina, and Wake. I'd actually go with NC State and Oregon State and then Wake you would think would cover but it's a gamble.


I assume you are a UTEP fan. I lean UTEP but dont see compelling information. I assume this is more of a "inside" knowledge deal than homer pick. I don't see how the Oline is better after losing two key players??, and the "motivation" aspect only applies if UTEP is the better team, otherwise I see two pretty evenly matched teams that really want a win. I lean UTEP because they have been great road dogs and I like their competition a little better.

 

[RetroVK]

Yeah Vegas i had correct #'s except for 2006, not sure what I was looking at there quite frankly. I only went back to 03 BTW.

I see the TCU/New Mexico game in comparison to the Troy/MTS game. Both road favs inconference. I like both but am much more comfortbale with Troy on the road. I'll be the first to tell you experience wise that TCU looks like a solid choice, but New Mexico scares me more than MTS.

---bull brought up Southern Miss Louisiana Lft. That game nobody has talked about but that looks like the TCU game experience edge wise. SM loses entire defensive front four and 3 Olinemman. And Lafayette is getting 10 and a half?

I like Northwestern. The Cuse have not fared well at all against spread teams. N-western brings guys back everywhere but Oline, and with that team it's roll outs and stretch running plays they never falter in stats dramatically after losing top oline.

The reason for optimism in Evanston stems from new coordinators. They bring in Wisconsin's D coord who will bring an aggressive style not sit back in zone and give up yards. The new O coordinator will also stick to Sutton more instead of passing the game away.


Kyle,
---I think it's wise to stay away from Stanford, South Carolina, and Wake. I'd actually go with NC State and Oregon State and then Wake you would think would cover but it's a gamble.


I assume you are a UTEP fan. I lean UTEP but dont see compelling information. I assume this is more of a "inside" knowledge deal than homer pick. I don't see how the Oline is better after losing two key players??, and the "motivation" aspect only applies if UTEP is the better team, otherwise I see two pretty evenly matched teams that really want a win. I lean UTEP because they have been great road dogs and I like their competition a little better.[/quote


I am a utep alum. And i do cheer for them , though i will be attending the utep/longhorn game in week2 with my longhorn gear on and cheering for mac brown. No inside information at all with the utep pick. Just like how they matchup with buffalo. utep skill edge, utep speed , utep special teams edge with one of best kickers and great return game, utep as a road dog under mike price, buffalo laying points yada yada yada that we have beat into the ground already. However i played 70 sides last year and only once was i betting on utep ( plus a bundle against ucf and it was a winner yay ) so i don't think i have any homerism when it comes to making money. Same with Texas , who is my favorite team ..i bet on them zero times last year , and utah state who i have sort of adopted i bet just once as well , +24 at wyoming and cashed that too YAY. Finally get to look back on some winners instead of my losers. Homerism isn't an issue for me i dont think. i might be misevaluating information but not from a bias.

I bet nevada against unm in last years bowl game and rocky long slapped me around pretty good there. Felt that was one of my better capped games going in and instead lobos shut them out and crush them in a way i could never have seen coming. So it isn't like the lobos can't jump up and bite me in the arse. If the game does not go as planned , i can atleast take solace in the fact that i beat the line move and got a great value for betting this game early.

 

[RetroVK]

It was elimination day today.

I eliminated the following teams as possible plays .... uab , w michigan , pitt , okie st , kentucky , and tennessee.


UAB -- Too many unknowns for me .. i tried my best to get a better handle on this game but failed miserably. i have looked at it hard and in the end i think the number might line up well with the matchup. The problem i have had eliminating the game up until now is that by power rating this number is considerably off the mark. Still think uab is the side but it wont have my money involved.

w michigan -- decided not to play this one either. Scared because of what the MAC did to me out of conference last year and scared that nebraska defense might start playing to potential under a new coach. They were horrendous underachievers last year on defense but i think some quit might have been involved there. This was the hardest one to eliminate. maybe drbob will play nebraska and i can get a 17.

kentucky--just a bit scared as to whether they can score on louisville or many average teams. louisville had in my estimation the worst spring/fall of any team but i lost some value in the number and it is hard for me to play a game that was on the bubble when the line gets away from me. kentucky has a solid defense and the cardinals might be pulling guys out of the band to play wr. under might be worth a look.

piitsburgh -- just not sure i trust panthers to cover numbers like these. There are a lot of things pointing to a pitt blowout win though .. dominance of line of scrimmage , bowling green off the field issues , McCoy vs falcons rush defense , offensive line issues for falcons , past history of pitt vs mac at home , but i need more to lay double digits .. atleast slightly. Like the western michigan game a line move could put tis back on the watch list but at this number i am eliminating it.

oklahoma state --After looking over the game a few more times i simply dont find value in the line. Slightly undervalued the wazzou side the first few times i capped this out i think. oklahoma state getting tons of love all over the internet and yet the line never moves. that is a bit scary too.

tennessee -- ucla just never gets blown out at home and laying 7 to me means i think the vols would win by 10 or more to bet it.. Even with bad coaching ..... now they should have better coaching. long road trip vs a solid defense and this is another game where i lost the number. at 5.5 i might reconsider.

That leaves me with the following still on the betting radar....

hawaii +the points ...... i am betting this game. but holding out until atleast sunday night. i have a feeling drbob is on hawaii .... because i cannot imagine a math model that does not favor hawaii here. i want that 35.5 but might ahve to settle for the 35 and not risk bob messing me up. Also at some point the hawaii money is going to come off the sideline and i wouldnt mind beating that to the punch. the line has moved a full td despite florida losing one of the best tight ends in the country and players in the secondary all over the place. makes no sense.

fresno st plus the pointshopes of a 6 but i wll likely be beting this thing too. if it starts dropping more i will take the 4.5 and be happy enough .. not too much difference between 4.5 and 5.5 ... but big difference between 5.5 and 6. Fresno matches up well in my estimation. i sort of like them to win straight up. will have more on this game later in game week.

wisconsin --- do not believe i laid this many points in a game all of last year and i am not a fan of it ....at all .... but the line has kept dropping and i like them to do almost whatever they want to vs akron. unlike the idaho at arizona game , i dont think akron can score,......... battling myself on this game .......

thats where my card stands as of right now.

 

[TheGarfather]

LOL, after agreeing all off-season you and I are going to end up with very different cards. I think Wyoming could be the only commonality. In any event, good luck this season.

 

[RetroVK]

Not hearing good things out of the TCU camp lately ...

As far as TCU coach Gary Patterson is concerned, it’s a good thing Friday’s practice wasn’t his team’s last before the season opener Aug. 30 at New Mexico.
Because Patterson wasn’t pleased with the hour-long practice and walk-through.
"It was the worst walk-through we’ve ever had in 25 years that I’ve been a part of things," Patterson said. "We’re going to get our asses kicked if we play like we just did today.
"There weren’t any positives from the entire camp because everything led to this," he said. "This was supposed to be the perfect day. As far as I’m concerned, this is a bad camp because of today."
Tailback Ryan Christian said the practice wasn’t as "crisp" as it usually is, and Patterson said the team will start over with Sunday night’s practice.
Having said that, Patterson wasn’t in the mood to divulge what did come out of preseason camp; on Monday, the fall semester and a game week begin.

 

[broadwayjoe]

vegas i think that's a positive thing for tcu backers...it's a good way for a superior team to get fired up and more importantly more focused after a ragging like that, especially going into a contest with an inferior opponent. also, a coach doesn't call a team out like that if he doesn't believe they are capable of good things. i like patterson, and i think that was a good way to get his point across to him team

 

[RetroVK]

vegas i think that's a positive thing for tcu backers...it's a good way for a superior team to get fired up and more importantly more focused after a ragging like that, especially going into a contest with an inferior opponent. also, a coach doesn't call a team out like that if he doesn't believe they are capable of good things. i like patterson, and i think that was a good way to get his point across to him team

i would usually agree but i read somewhere else that a guy went to the scrimmage and that the team looked horrendous and that brown and turner didnt even see action. given turner injury history i understand that but with brown it makes one wonder about the rumors that i mentioned earlier in the thread about possible suspension. I do love patterson too though. of course rocky long is good too. ( i think i have gone the whole thread without calling him chuck, chris or howie so i feel good about that )

so hope you are right.

 

[TheGarfather]

Kyle,

I just have Wyoming so far locked and loaded. Got a few others lined up. I'm trying not to go beyond about 5 plays in week one. If you look at all profitable long-term college football handicappers as a group, you will find that 90% do well in the first couple weeks and in fact probably make a majority of their money in the month of September, and then start to get more 50/50ish until bowl season where there are a few more intersectional matchups to take advantage of. Well, I'm in the other 10%, I always struggle to start and close well. Can't put my finger on why other than MLDs hitting at a low rate in non-con situations. Late September thru Thanksgiving is usually kind to me, and bowls are usually profitable too, but not as much as just regular conference season. Weeks 1 and 2 I need to be careful or I will sink my ship before it ever sets sail.

With that out of the way, my plays in queue are:

Rice, Pitt, ECU/VT U, Cal, S. Carolina, TCU/New Mexico U, KSU, ULL pts, NW, and ULL ML. Those are more or less in order, but not totally, I will swap them around as needed. Ten to choses from, need to find about 3-4 good ones from that group.

 

[pags11]

kyle,

is there any truth to the rumor that RB Brown may be in some academic trouble and potentially might not play in this one?...I heard it from a TCU alumn out here but hadn't read anything on the net...

 

[RetroVK]

Well i have visited killerfrogs and checked out some other spots .... and i keep hearing rumors .... but i can never get a confirmation. They sort of beat around the bush and avoid the issue a little bit. Now , if you recall last year TCU had some problems with the defensive linemen. Vess was suspended for violating a university policy but we never did find out what it was. Possible roids sales ?? just speculating ( i have no clue this is just conjecture on my part ) because the big rumors surrounding T blake last year were roid related and he took time off for "personal matters" or whatever. Both defensive linemen ... you start adding things up... but again i really dont know what the reason was. The point is that Vess and Blake were two key players missing tons of action and we never really got an explanation from the program. So the idea that this particular program is tight lipped about issues holds more water than if this popped up for another school. I mean at this point heading into game week most schools would have announced an academic problem to their star running back already. And with those schools i wouldn't give the rumors much weight.....but this is a different animal and if reports are true that he didn't play in the scrimmage it may add weight to the idea. Brown and Turner have both had some injury issues in the past and Patterson might just be protecting them and giving other guys work but that doesn't seem to patterson-like either.

The short answer is ......i dont know.

we Will likely know more when i see qoutes from the coach post-scrimmage ... since if the reports about both backs sitting out of the scrimmage are true it will be the first question he takes.


I think Blake eventually said that he was suffering from some anxiety issues like ricky williams had ........ok.

 

[RetroVK]

here is what i saw on killerfrogs in atleast one thread ..

http://www.killerfrogs.com/msgboard/index....showtopic=81070


this is one of about 3 or 4 different rumors around these running backs ...where there is smoke there is fire ??

has me concerned ......

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

It was elimination day today.

I eliminated the following teams as possible plays .... uab , w michigan , pitt , okie st , kentucky , and tennessee.

kentucky--just a bit scared as to whether they can score on louisville or many average teams. louisville had in my estimation the worst spring/fall of any team but i lost some value in the number and it is hard for me to play a game that was on the bubble when the line gets away from me. kentucky has a solid defense and the cardinals might be pulling guys out of the band to play wr. under might be worth a look.

tennessee -- ucla just never gets blown out at home and laying 7 to me means i think the vols would win by 10 or more to bet it.. Even with bad coaching ..... now they should have better coaching. long road trip vs a solid defense and this is another game where i lost the number. at 5.5 i might reconsider.

That leaves me with the following still on the betting radar....

fresno st plus the pointshopes of a 6 but i wll likely be beting this thing too. if it starts dropping more i will take the 4.5 and be happy enough .. not too much difference between 4.5 and 5.5 ... but big difference between 5.5 and 6. Fresno matches up well in my estimation. i sort of like them to win straight up. will have more on this game later in game week.


thats where my card stands as of right now.

wow...what a thread, VK. took me forever to read, but it was definitely worth the time.

anyhow, looks like i'm too late to talk you off kentucky and tennessee...not to mention the gamecocks. (i obviously like all of those, lol.) but the shortest of versions...
kentucky has the superior defense in this one...and despite the other stuff, and unknown variables from both sides, they have the quality RBs to control the game.
and the stuff about going against ucla is in my thread. not gonna regurgitate it here...but an SEC defense jsut is not what the Bruins needed to see outta the gate, considering their offensive issues.


fresno st interests me though. i like em...but the main reason i haven't played them is because i made rutgers a 10 pt fav. that said...my #s are admittedly a weak attempt @ power rankings, and i'd hardly say i trust them...and sometimes will go against them. anyways, i'm rambling. but the bottom line is that fresno intrigued me as i looked at the game, despite my #'s. i'm gonna look back thru this thread, in case i missed some fresno st info in a post...but i was curious about reading more of your thoughts on this one, as well as your opinion of rutgers. thx, bro.

 

[pags11]

wow, they already deleted the thread before I could read it...keep me posted if you hear anything...

 

[RetroVK]

Gar -- of the remaining games on your list i like pitt and south carolina the most and northwestern the least. interesting that all three of those games are lined int hat -11 to -13 area.

yanks -- i think you get the money in both the tennessee and kentucky affairs , i lost some value in the line while deciding what to do with those. like i said ....hard for me to pull the trigger on bubble games when the line gets worse. i will have my thoughts on fresno later in the week but i like how good running teams performed against rutgers a year ago. also think rutgers was slightly overrated last year and perhaps again heading into this year.

pags -- i have pretty much given up on researching this thing,....its all rumors ....and i cannot find a single "normal" news source or article that mentions any of the different rumors. No mention of academic ineligibility , no mention of geting caught with weed , no mention of reinjury , no mention of going nuts in a walmart , no mention of assaulting a woman. And those are just some of the rumors that have been circulated to date. It really only becomes significant if BOTH of these guys are out since they are both quality. They are still listed as the number one and number two rb's on every depth chart i have found on the net. pretty much done trying to figure it out as i wont be playing back the other way even if it pans out that neither of them are playing. If anyone has information concerning this please feel free to post it in here but i have been wild goose-chasing these rumors for just about a month now with no fruition.


As a side note on the tcu game , it is totaled at 41.5. This is exactly where i expected it to be totaled as i mentioned in the totals thread we had on this board the day prior to numbers releasing at bookmaker. So while i knew what the total was going to be it is a good time to mention that laying a full 7 in games where points will be at a premium is a lot different than in games totaled in the sixties or higher. Just something to keep in mind for those considering a tcu wager. Also want to reiterate , in case i did not mention it at all , that one of the largest weaknesses in my power ratings is evaluation of juco talent. unm sports a lot of juco transfers that will see action in week one. Just think its important to share some of my concerns with what i still believe to be a very solid bet.

 

[RetroVK]

That impossible tight end for idaho to cover is out this week. yay.

UA tight end Gronkowski out with strep throat


<!--Story Category:0x08020100-->STEVE RIVERA
Tucson Citizen

<SCRIPT type=text/javascript><!-- OAS_AD('300x250_1') --></SCRIPT><IFRAME src="http://www.digitalmediacommunications.com/tucson/tucson_com/3in1/tucson_3in1.html" frameBorder=0 width=300 scrolling=no height=250></IFRAME>

Standout tight end Rob Gronkowski has strep throat and missed Arizona's practice Saturday morning, a week before the Wildcats open the season against Idaho.
The sophomore is also undergoing tests to check if he might have mononucleosis, Arizona coach Mike Stoops said.
"We'll know more as the week goes on,'' Stoops said.
More tests were expected on Monday.
Stoops all but said Gronkowski's status is day-to-day. Arizona faces Idaho on Aug. 30 at 7 p.m. at Arizona Stadium.
"We're all a little bit unsure right now,'' Stoops said, "so hopefully it's (cured) as quickly as possible. We'll see.''
The fifth-year coach said he'll adjust his game plan accordingly and is confident because UA has a lot of good players, he said.
Gronkowski's key backup is A.J. Simmons.
"He'll be a contributor,'' Stoops said.
Simmons said he was looking forward to showing he's capable of filling in if needed.
"I think the coaching staff has done a good job of preparing me for something like this,'' he said. "I'm going to make the most of it.''
Offensive coordinator Sonny Dykes said he's not clear how long Gronkowski will be out but admitted "contingencies must be made.''
"(Gronkowski) has been one of our more consistent guys out there,'' Dykes said. "But . . . someone else has to step up, and A.J. has done some good things this camp.''
Gronkowski, considered a future NFL draft choice, caught 28 passes for 525 yards and six touchdowns during his freshman season.