2.13

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Early start. With 7 games on the schedule.

Spurs @ NJ :
Suprised somewhat this open so high. Thought more like -3. Big sandwich spot here for SA with DET on deck. No matter how you slice it while SPurs are capable they simply dont have IT nite in , nite out. Jason Collins has been playing solid defense and he could keep TD in his rut. Now that NJ is back to its defensive ways I have to think UNDER 185 is extremely attractive . SA is now 4-7 away as road chalk recently and only the WASH team is remotely impressive in that stretch. While Wiz have stunk w/o Jamison so maybe not that impressive. NJ has 2 days rest and actually is playing consecutive home games while SA is in game 7 of an 8 game trip. (LEan : NJ +4.5 / Under 185)

Blazers @ Heat :
Portland is definetly strating to click and is on the rise. Little suprised with a 185 total but Miami did play some good DEF vs SA , its just a matter if they bring that intensity against an opponent like Portland. Not sure about this game but owud rather ride the dog here. This is Miamis last game before the break and they may go all out which seems to point to an over since Heat should around 100. Lean Blazers

Milw @ dallas :
Redd should return which hopefully makes the line shorter then it should be. WOuld entertain the Mavs if they are not double digit favs. Also look at the over...9 of 10 in the series have gone over.

NO @ Memphis :
The over 207 is cheap. Though the number is correct with NO as small road chalk , tough to see tha value in the Hornets as road chalk. Lean over & Memphis(sorry Cake I am addicted)

Raps @ Bulls:
The shorthanded Bulls have owned Tor (5-17ats past 22meetings). Nocioni was a big factor in the last meeting in CHI. Not sure what to think about the long road trip and no rest really. The total is spot on...so no decision yet..

Kings @ Houston :
The Rockets offense is clicking lately and especially at home. See no reason why they dont see 100 pts. Looking mostly at HOU team over ...Rockets have blown some teams out at home and who knows what will become of Sac w/o Miller. They are undersized for sure ...lean Houston

NYK @ LAL :
Lakers look to cheap here. If you recall before Kobe was announced OUT @ MSG they were something like -2.5 pt road favs. I cant believe Utah is better then LAL right now. LAL has played sound defense since Odom returned but the offense has suffered as well. Lakers have gone UNDER in 9 of 11. While NYK with OT avoided a 5th straight UNDER. This again seems low though cause it was around 208 in MSG. Its just hard to figure the Lakers out. I like NY here but am cautious. Thought we would have sen 7 here ....LAL was 6/6.5 vs Miami....

Early look at Tuesday
 
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Like the Spurs NJ Under 185 as well (think its 184 now), did not know about the Det game, good point on the sandwich. Ill wait to see the line movement on that game.

Have to disagree with Fakers total. They have gone UNDER 9 of 11, bc the books have not adjusted for they new style of bball they play. The 208 total in the Knicks game w/ or w/o Kobe was WAY too high. I think 201.5 is way too high also given their recent track records.
 
I like the laker in that spot. Cavs had their way with the lakers but lakers with a day off will return home and do well against the knicks.
 
I like the Rockets A LOT here. Sacto probably without Miller and coming off a winning streak and a HUGE letdown. A day of rest and a travel can't do any good I think. Rockets are getting Bonzi Wells back playing against his former team.
The Rockets rebounded nicely from a loss to Dallas by smashing the Bobcats. win this one hands down.
The only concern: they have a look ahead situation, playing against Dallas in two days (on my birthday :D), but I doubt they'll be saving themselves for it. The negative aspect can't overshadow the fact that I absolutely love the matchups here, and the situation, and the fact the Rockets are laying "only" 7,5.
Kings have been a rather streaky team so far, time for another losing one I'd say.

I might take this one early, afraid the line is gonna pump up by the evening.
 
I didnt know you already had a thread up. I wouldnt have made mine. I need an explaination of this Laker line. Im assuming it gets hit hard overnight.
 
On one hand I think LAL looks to cheap then I see they were just -4 to ORL w/o Odom barely won didnt cover so its seems in the correct realm but expected at least -7.

So hard to not like Houston Satyr. I am sure I will play that. I tend to not get crazy anymore with early plays anymore its fucks with me...like not properly thinking out ATL today
 
On one hand I think LAL looks to cheap then I see they were just -4 to ORL w/o Odom barely won didnt cover so its seems in the correct realm but expected at least -7.

So hard to not like Houston Satyr. I am sure I will play that. I tend to not get crazy anymore with early plays anymore its fucks with me...like not properly thinking out ATL today
^^
he will end up playing SAC
 
Frank:

Personally I think its right where it should be at 195 so no lean. Kinda like the over but would like to see the line down at 193. Tough call..

Cakeoff:

If I even mention it ...think it outloud gimme a smack bro!
 
Sportsnut,
Enjoy your picks and posts. Quick question (I apologize if you have answered this already): Why do you prefer to take the first half unders as opposed to the full game? Is it because of the possibility of OT and/or all of the possible fouling and free throws at the end of the game? Thanks.
 
i think it depends JRose5 if you like the home team to blowout the road trip then id say fullgame since they can be neck to neck 1st h and 2h a blow

and under 1st h if you think it can be a close game meaning fouls at the end or OT
 
Sportsnut,
Enjoy your picks and posts. Quick question (I apologize if you have answered this already): Why do you prefer to take the first half unders as opposed to the full game? Is it because of the possibility of OT and/or all of the possible fouling and free throws at the end of the game? Thanks.

No specific reason. Got burnt with a few OT endings recently and some hack a shaq type endings(late FTs) . Just seems if the game is to go under it starts real slow like Utah - Atl tonite. Being doing as protection lately cause feel like I cant find a consistent role . Just can suck if you lose and it goes under anyway. It opens you up to more risk if you start playing the 2nd H totals but its also a quicker outcome. Really I think you have to cap the game like Cake said and ask yourself how much room do you think you have...room bewteen your predicted outcome and the listed total. Thats about all...Thanks and GL
 
Im almost positive Redd is not returning until after the all star break. Atleast those are the prelim reports here in Milwaukee
 
No prob.

On a side note why does everyone like TD matchup? Moore and Collins have actuallybeen okay on defense. TD has struggled in 3 of vs NJ. Think 6 of 14 and 5 of 16 past 2 in NJ with a 7 of 16 also in SA. Have to think Collins has been guarding him in the past and will do so tmrw...at least if memory serves me correctly.
 
Im almost positive Redd is not returning until after the all star break. Atleast those are the prelim reports here in Milwaukee


Thanks I typed this early but you are correct. Appreciate it..

He was hoping to play against Dallas on Tuesday night, but the
Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel has reported that he will probably remain sidelined
until after the All-Star break.
 
Guess I was right about LAL being cheap cause its now -7.5 and guess the total was cheap as well now 203.

Cakeoff can laugh now cause I wavered on my Rockets ideas. They played the last meeting in Sac w/o Miller and the Kings played real well that day. So I am being cautious there.

Freakin Kidd is hurt and ruined the UNDER in NJ. The Nets have onlyhit 91 twice in past 10 meetings vs SA and most were in the 70s!!! Still might go team under 87.5 if I get it.

Starting to like Miami here. Saying I hate this card is an understatement...still thinking Memphis and the over
 
Business time:

Spurs -8 {6units} & 1st H -4.5 {3units}: Lets just say the line move here is the tell all. Desperate Spurs team here with NJ possibly looking ahead to Tor showdown. They are so used to having Kidd someone as inconsistent as Williams could be troublesome. Should be SA cruising by DD's
NJ team Under 86.5 -115 {4units}: Last 2 meetings NJ has cracked 80 in just 3 of them and now miss 3 starters. They had 83 and 91 twice....

Heat -8.5 {4units}: What sold me was how bad Miami handled Milw and Char at home(also such great DEF vs SA and you know they want to keep the momentum rolling into the break). Blazers have done some good things away but they have received some fat lines. They lost by 30 in Hous catching 9.5 , they covered in Pho catching 14.5 , they won SU by 20 @ wash but caught 7 , they were undervalued often but I dont think they are here . Miami had beat them by DDs past 3 before using a huge 2nd H comeback to defeat the in Port minus Shaq. Roy and Randolph both struggled in Wash . Can Blazers win 3 SU away? I say that cause you know of Port tendency to not just cover but win SU. Minor side note this will take Miami to 26-26 if they win so further incentive IMO Looking at the over 187 or team heat over ...
Team Totals all 2 Units : Over 98 Houston , Over 104 Dallas , Over 98 Miami all -115


Looks like Mo Willaims is questionable so it really doesnt leave muc h desire to tale anything. Though possible Dallas team OVER.



For ML parlays how bout (4units)Miami , Dallas and SA(possible add Hous and LAL)(2 more units)......still looking at the rest......GL

Grizz +1.5 {3units} +0.5 1st H {1.5 units}
Over 206 {3units}: Dont forget this is a Home and home. Dont forget the winless Grizz on no rest played in NO off OT win. Dont forget bad road team such as 8-16 NO regardless of how hot they are IMO are good plays in road spots where they need to win SU to cash...think NO @ Philly....

Raptors +165 {1.25units}: Line is shorter then expected so IMO the Bulls run either ends here or keeps rolling vs Tor...

Passing on HOU for now with Dallas on-deck and will look at the Lakergame later
 
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Glad to see you on SA spread. I actually hit the ML at -380. That is something I almost NEVER do, laying that high juice. But I just think there's like a 99% chance they win SU, so I'm actually getting value.
 
Guess I was right about LAL being cheap cause its now -7.5 and guess the total was cheap as well now 203.

Cakeoff can laugh now cause I wavered on my Rockets ideas. They played the last meeting in Sac w/o Miller and the Kings played real well that day. So I am being cautious there.

Freakin Kidd is hurt and ruined the UNDER in NJ. The Nets have onlyhit 91 twice in past 10 meetings vs SA and most were in the 70s!!! Still might go team under 87.5 if I get it.

Starting to like Miami here. Saying I hate this card is an understatement...still thinking Memphis and the over
Big Nasty had a big game for Millers abscent and rockets were playing 5 in 7
 
surprised that you didn't take the Rockets in the end, but I like some other plays namely the team total over (HOU), and the Raptors.


On the other side of your Grizz bet though, I think the Hornets finally get it done :shake: :cheers:


good luck.
 
im going to bet on Houston SportsNut will be kicking hisself after the game
 
Quite possibly. Maybe for once my team will come out slow and I can get some 2nd H value...Williamson did go off that meeting...


GL Satyr and Cakeoff
 
Be back in abit....Hoops time 4 me....

Really like Old Dom 2nd H -4 for those who care.....

Think NJ plays good in the 1st Q and then fades.....need Miami to wake up..BOL
 
whose your team? better not be knickerbockers looool

3 championship rings baby. In last 10 seasons. 2 in last 4.
 
whose your team? better not be knickerbockers looool

3 championship rings baby. In last 10 seasons. 2 in last 4.
something is wrong when you are that happy when you beat the nets w/o kidd n rj :an_roll_laugh:

you dont even live in SA
 
yeh I'm aware that I don't live in the US but when you're a 10 year old kid surrounded by other 10 year olds rambling on about Jordan and Kukoc (Kukoc is from my country btw ;) ) and you decide to support some Spurs team and stay up until 5 AM for years just to watch/follow their games yeh I think you're entitled to say it's your team. Not a full grown fan of course, but how could I be living in Europe, not like I can go to the games.
 
Damn why boyz arguing for???

No congrats for a near perfect nite??? Mike listened to Mike...err SportsNut only and trusted himself and shockin I have lost 1 play bewteen College and NBA...I may be on to something here..
 
Business time:

Spurs -8 {6units} WIN +6.00 & 1st H -4.5 {3units}WIN +3.00: Lets just say the line move here is the tell all. Desperate Spurs team here with NJ possibly looking ahead to Tor showdown. They are so used to having Kidd someone as inconsistent as Williams could be troublesome. Should be SA cruising by DD's
NJ team Under 86.5 -115 {4units}WIN +4.00: Last 2 meetings NJ has cracked 80 in just 3 of them and now miss 3 starters. They had 83 and 91 twice....

Heat -8.5 {4units} WIN +4.00: What sold me was how bad Miami handled Milw and Char at home(also such great DEF vs SA and you know they want to keep the momentum rolling into the break). Blazers have done some good things away but they have received some fat lines. They lost by 30 in Hous catching 9.5 , they covered in Pho catching 14.5 , they won SU by 20 @ wash but caught 7 , they were undervalued often but I dont think they are here . Miami had beat them by DDs past 3 before using a huge 2nd H comeback to defeat the in Port minus Shaq. Roy and Randolph both struggled in Wash . Can Blazers win 3 SU away? I say that cause you know of Port tendency to not just cover but win SU. Minor side note this will take Miami to 26-26 if they win so further incentive IMO Looking at the over 187 or team heat over ...
Team Totals all 2 Units : Over 98 Houston WIN +2.00, Over 104 Dallas LOSS -2.30 , Over 98 Miami WIN +2.00 all -115


Looks like Mo Willaims is questionable so it really doesnt leave muc h desire to tale anything. Though possible Dallas team OVER.



For ML parlays how bout (4units)Miami , Dallas & SA WIN(possible add Hous and LAL)PENDING with LAL ML(2 more units)......still looking at the rest......GL


Grizz +1.5 {3units} WIN +3.00 &+0.5 1st H {1.5 units}WIN +1.50
Over 206 {3units}WIN +3.00: Dont forget this is a Home and home. Dont forget the winless Grizz on no rest played in NO off OT win. Dont forget bad road team such as 8-16 NO regardless of how hot they are IMO are good plays in road spots where they need to win SU to cash...think NO @ Philly....

Raptors +165 {1.25units}WIN +2.07 : Line is shorter then expected so IMO the Bulls run either ends here or keeps rolling vs Tor...


Passing on HOU for now with Dallas on-deck and will look at the Lakergame later


10-1 +28.27 units
 
Well for what its worth I would take LAL prety big 2nd H and probably the over. Probably gonna lose the UNLV over so I will take 19-2 and worst case split my parlays but feel confident I hit the 5 teamer as well that relies on LAL winning SU...
 
hova 50 points in the 4th q'an_horse'

nice night SportsNut you couldnt do no wrong

good luck tomorrow =O)
 
holy shit, guess i picked the wrong night to miss.


Thats how I feel everyday....afraid to miss 1 nite cause it just might be that big one....very little I liked tonite lost especially in CBB..that probably means taking it easy if LAL ML hit the last of the 5 team parlay.
 
hova 50 points in the 4th q'an_horse'

nice night SportsNut you couldnt do no wrong

good luck tomorrow =O)


Thanks Cake. Taking it easy tmrw for sure. I did my best to stay away from what concerned me ....

Like that 4th Q over .. just hope LAL isnt putting the beat down on them by then.so GL!
 
Thanks Ret. If I could only make this a pattern..

Sorry to hear thatj3pj3p. It looks like I got every bounce tonite.
 
NY 1.0 Eddy Curry made Slam Dunk (19 PTS), Assist Jamal Crawford (2 AST)


HAHAHAHAAAA the same shit Howard and his boys did to the Spurs. What a game!
 
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