1.24.07

K

Killa

To the left, to the left, to the right to the righ
'05/'06 NBA Record ATS: 122-95 (56%)
'06/'07 NBA Record ATS: 66-48 (58%)

Philly/Cleveland U188 (-110 @ Greek)
Philly should have a nightmare offensively here. And by nightmare I mean one quarter where they score about 15. And ultimately that is what will keep this game under, the fact that Cleveland should be very focused and for that team, it starts with defense. When I play unders in the 180s, I look for the potential to have one disaster quarter and that potential is there with this matchup. Don't be surprised to see like a 22-15 quarter. That alone will prevent it from going over this number. Even if I don't get that, I just don't trust these teams to average 47 a quarter. Philly is tired and flew in late Tuesday, and Cleveland just has no offense. Number is only this high due to series history, in which Iverson was good for about 35 a pop. Not this time. 95-82 Cleveland.

:moosefukin:

 
I agree with Killa's points but not sure about the play. Philly did lay an egg with Charlotte in an earlier back to back. Look at home then to NYK though. I think the 1st situation had both in that situation though(backend). Cle has struggled on defense adapting the West Coast philosphy of matador DEF recently . While Philly has struggled on defense and LeBron has something like 33 per last 7 meetings.

Sixers away 116 , 101 , 95 ,104 ,97 , 98, 104 , 106 , 89 , 118 ....

I think the reason the series is high scoring is not actually due to AI cause he really didnt play that well think 20-53 combined past 2 games(did get to the line) . Its the Sixers inability to stop LeBron , Gooden and Zydrunas who have had there way. I dont think Cle covers and see Cavs scoring 98-102...would be pretty suprised if Philly doesnt break 90....

Thought we would see 190/191...

Leaning over but nothing concrete and wish you the BOL!
 
BDK .. B.A.R .. What's your take on this 221.5 total in Utah tomorrow ..? "UNDER" just leapt off the board at me soon as I saw it ..
 
run n gun...

I do like that. Good rebounding team...fewer possessions.

I still may play that. I like it especially more bringing in BDK's theory on Memphis on road which proved right the other night.
 
Adding...................

[FONT=Times New Roman,Times,serif]Philly/Cleveland 2H O93.5 (-110 @ Greek)[/FONT]
What the hell, let's go for the 2-0. Hitting a middle defies all the established rules of my bad luck, but let's take a shot. Not just doing it for the hell of it, I saw some things I don't like in the 1H. You know what this means, pound the 2H under!

an_roll_laugh.gif
 
:moose:this same shit happened again to me last time i had the under hawks-cavs and they blew the game t lue hits a floater at the buzzer to force ot :hairout:
 
Justin

I have never seen anyone who caps NBA games so well, but gets beat so often on the last shot. Stick with it, my friend. Gambling has these tough moments and you have to ride them out. Your capping fundamentals are excellent.

At least you hedged with the 2nd half tonight.



GL

MM
 
Mountain, I appreciate it. But that was what is known as the straw that broke the camel's back. I'm done. I'm tired of hearing that I had the right side after a moose. I'm tired of hearing that the breaks will even out for me. I'm tired of hearing that I should shake it off and come back tomorrow. I'm tired of laughing with you guys about the "Curse of Killa." When it gets to the point of two years of consistently horrific endings, it's hard to keep laughing about it. Dallas @ Miami on Sunday and this game tonight were the last ones I can handle. I just can't come back from being utterly robbed of those three units. Obviously there is more to it than two games, this is two years of consistent bullshit in the last minute of my games. I don't know why my breaks can't be 50/50, I don't know. I do know that it's been so bad that it's driven me away from something I love to do. In fact, what the mooses have done is take something that I loved to do, and made me not love it anymore. The fun has been taken away.

I'm not making some dramatic exit. I may change my mind in a month, who knows. What I do know is that I'll be gone for a while, and focusing on my school-work, as well as learning about things I always wanted to learn about but never did because I was busy handicapping games for two hours every night. I'll most definitely be around the forums to holla at you guys. You all know how to get in touch with me. GL with all your plays.
 
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I don't blame you. If you took away the curse you would be hitting in the low 60's and wouldn't get utterly pissed off about these endings. Frankly, you coulda won both ends of this. You capped both halves right and simply split. Thats frustrating.

What I have done several times is just take some time off. It could be a day, a week, a month or even a year. Then, the zest of competition and the love of it in general will come back. You said a few weeks ago it was more like a grind lately. Thats in my estimation is worse for you than the mooses. Relax, and if/when your ready, you'll be right back capping at a very high rate as you always have been.

Just remember, NBA players go through the dog days this time of year and so do we as cappers.

I got a play I love this weekend so root for me ;)
 
J - terrible bad beat there with the OT. I think Big Al offers up some good advice and you said it yourself too. When it isn't fun anymore, it's time to step back and take some time off. I wish you the best man, you'll know when it's right to get back in. You are a very talented capper!
 
your plays will be missed, sir.

If/when you decide to get back into the fray, you know you'll be welcomed back. Peace bro.

:beer:
 
take care killa... i've enjoyed your picks/threads for the last few months since i got introducted to this whole betting world...:shake:
 
finger11 said:
take care killa... i've enjoyed your picks/threads for the last few months since i got introducted to this whole betting world...:shake:
Click to expand...

Hey, who wouldn't. He was the best percentage NCAA Football capper you will find.

He is sooo consistent and good in NBA.

He takes his time, mostly doesn't force plays and sticks to his MM ways.

The bad beats will get to anyone though. I mean,. last year was unreal for them. You would have thought that was an abberation. Apparently not.

I hope he comes back when he is ready as we all do. He's one smart guy though. I really realized how skilled he was a few months ago when he mentioned that he loved doing this but it wouldn't cloud his future plans. Thats tough to say for anyone thats good at handicapping.
 
Thanks alot BAR. What you said really means alot. Thanks everyone else too.

What's definitely a big factor in this is my school. This is my last semester, and it involves a 15-20 page senior thesis among many other papers and exams. Once I graduate, I'm home free in terms of having nights free to handicap and all. Soo I can have a play I love here and there, but the daily grind is killing me with the stress of school on my shoulders as well.

But I mean, tonight really hurt. Nailed the game, nailed the 2H, staring a 2-0 right in the face, and BOOM. Overtime turns a 2-0 into a 1-1. Snowball effect from the Miami moose, just sort of pushed me over the edge tonight.

One last thing though. There is a situational play on Sunday, February 11th. I will be making my return for that play, which I'm keeping silent about as I want it to stay under the radar until then. But if the line is what I need it to be, it's a play I'm stepping out on. I'll explain why I love it so much when it comes in 3 weeks.

Talk to you guys soon.
 
Me thinks that me needs to look at the FEB 11th schedule..lol

I'll figure it out..no doubt..I'll be hush-hush
 
Killa said:
Thanks alot BAR. What you said really means alot. Thanks everyone else too.

What's definitely a big factor in this is my school. This is my last semester, and it involves a 15-20 page senior thesis among many other papers and exams. Once I graduate, I'm home free in terms of having nights free to handicap and all. Soo I can have a play I love here and there, but the daily grind is killing me with the stress of school on my shoulders as well.

But I mean, tonight really hurt. Nailed the game, nailed the 2H, staring a 2-0 right in the face, and BOOM. Overtime turns a 2-0 into a 1-1. Snowball effect from the Miami moose, just sort of pushed me over the edge tonight.

One last thing though. There is a situational play on Sunday, February 11th. I will be making my return for that play, which I'm keeping silent about as I want it to stay under the radar until then. But if the line is what I need it to be, it's a play I'm stepping out on. I'll explain why I love it so much when it comes in 3 weeks.

Talk to you guys soon.
Click to expand...


Well if I don't talk to you before then I'll definitely see your ass on the 11th. I know for a fact that I couldn't have actually suceeded at school and this. No fucking way. It's one or the other imo. Get that school taken care of as it'll help you for the rest of your life. The NBA will always be here and it'll hopefully be surrounded with a better betting enviroment. BOL to all of your future endeavors. I'll keep in touch. :shake:
 
good luck killa i wish you the best well missing a big piece of this forum without you i hope to you see back soon :shake:

ps i know what play your talkin about for feb 11th :smiley_acbe:
 
gl to you killa. im the same way...ive got the last minute bullshit luck as well but im sure your run has been much longer than mine. I also am concentrating on my work as well as trying to cap games but I'm sure you spend more time than I do. Sad to see the good cappers leaving although school is important so hit the books, then come back and beat the books.
 
I am sorry for your loss man. I think in general playing totals is very tough.
 
hah, just went to the other site's scoreboard for Feb 11th and it has San Antonio playing a double-header in two different cities. Pretty funny.
 
Tough beat BoDog.

Believe me, you're not the only guy that gets these bad breaks though when it comes to cappers that bet a lot of basketball. I have been saying for a long time that the toughest sport to handicap is basketball(specifically the pros). Forget about the capping side of the game and trying to find consistant winners in a league where teams play day to day over an 82 game season. Basketball is a HARD game to cap because of what goes on in the last few minutes of the game. Ever have that 8 point dog who plays their hearts out against the fav? They are in the game EVERY second and the whole time you are thinking how good you capped the game. Then they go down 4 with under a minute to play and proceed to miss three desperation 3's while fouling three times to lose by 9 or 10. Or the favorite who is covering the number pretty safely, but they miss a few FT's down the stretch, while the dog hits a couple of miracle 3's to backdoor you. There is a decent % of games where it basically comes down to free throws and desperation shots. You can cap all day, but in that last minute so many fucking things can moose you.

-Made FT's
-Missed FT's
-Miracle 3's
-Backdoor covers
-Needless fouls
-Coaches who like to foul till the game is a 12 point game
-Coaches who will foul but decide to give up down 5
-Coaches who believe in the up 3 so purposely foul so OT doesn't happen
-Coaches who for some reason never foul in that same situation and then OT occurs

There are so many fucking ways to get beat in basketball and when you play on a daily basis, your asshole will get stretched in every possible way. And then the mental side of things get going. Even the best cappers can start to dwell on the bad feelings that they never seem to get lucky. A lot of the times you do get the good end of things but when that happens you file it away to good capping. For instance, you have the favorite laying 5. Down the stretch it is close, but your team(the fav) goes 8 for 8 from the stripe, while the opposing team doesn't get those miracle 3's. After those games, you don't think whew I got lucky, but more along the lines of whew my team was clutch and thats why I bet them.

Either way, hoops is a tough game and to have your record in the NBA is not an easy feat. Shit last year, I went something like 31-15 and the year before something like 28-20 and I feel lucky that I even pulled that off because the NBA can rape you.

I'm babbling bro so let me stop the rambling. Relax for a week or so and come back with a fresh mind.
 
Justin,
Don't forget your purpose in life right now. Get that degree. When you get your mojo back we will all be waiting! GL
 
All the best BDK, didn't get a chance to say so on the other site as I wasn't sure whether you would have a look in your thread

As to Feb 11, lol I don't think you will be the only one all over that bet ;)


GL buddy :shake:
 
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