I would rank like this:
t-1. Alabama
t-1. Oregon
3. Florida St
4. Baylor
I think the Committee will rank like this:
1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Florida St
4. Ohio St.
That would put the geographic match up Bama vs FSU and the traditional Rose matchup of Big Ten vs Pac 12.
I can not and will not ignore a head-to-head game between TCU and Baylor when the rest of the resume is fairly even.
TCU's best win is over a 9 win Kansas St team. They also beat 8 win OU, 8 win Minny and 8 win WVU = 4 good wins. Quality loss at Baylor.
Baylor's best win is over an 11 win TCU team. They also beat 9 win OU and 8 win K St = 3 good wins. Played horrible, but not a horrible loss considering WVU is a decent 8 win team. Remember WVU almost beat TCU too in Morgantown. TCU played rather horrible at times too in that one.
Victories over double digit win teams:
Alabama: 2 (Miss St and Mizzou)
Oregon: 2 (Arz and Mich St)
Ohio St: 2 (Mich St and Wisconsin)
Florida St: 1 (GT)
Baylor: 1 (TCU)
TCU: 0
So who has the best win/wins? When answering that question TCU can't compare. Had they beaten Baylor it would be a totally different story.
I think the committee is going to send a message to both Baylor and TCU.
For Baylor, by leaving them out they are going to send a message that weak out of conference scheduling can and will hurt you.
For TCU, and really the Big XII teams as a whole, they are going to send a message of how much they value a 13th game in a Conference Championship matchup vs a quality opponent and not be left with squabling and tie breaking arguing. Pitting division winners vs each other has it's own flaws to me, but in the eyes of this committee it is going to mean alot I predict.
Plus the committee gets to weasel out of picking the TCU/Baylor equation by putting in Ohio St ahead of them avoiding that bit of controversy. Oh there will be controversy alright. But if they put in TCU over Baylor plus left Ohio State out they would face it on two fronts. By putting in Ohio St and leaving both TCU and Baylor out they effectively boil it down to one issue and since the Big XII's championship is somewhat flawed right now they can deflect it back towards the conference rather than themselves.
Then we have the whole fans who travel and TV market revenue thing with Ohio St.
I like Baylor over Ohio St still. Sure Ohio St does have 9 wins vs bowl eligible teams (Baylor only 5). And Ohio St does have 6 wins vs teams with 7+ wins, Baylor has just 3. But I don't see strength in that. 6-6 Penn St and 6-6 Illinois and 6-5 Navy as a collection aren't really any better than 6-6 Texas or 6-6 Oklahoma St are they? I don't give Ohio St that much of a bump for wins over 7 win Rutgers and 7 win Maryland who got absolutely destroyed by all the B1G power teams. And a home loss to 6-6 to VT is worse that a road loss to 8-4 WVU.
I won't argue too much with someone who has Ohio St in. I think the arguments are close. I do however feel strongly that wherever you rank Baylor, they should definitely be ahead of TCU.