World Cup **Sweet 16 Stage** Discussion

BC,
Good eye there, was just looking and the Argies loss a ton of money, -1.5 vs Bosnia, -2 vs Iran, -1.5 vs Nigeria.
If you rode on CR you'd be pretty damn rich.
So far only Colombia have done the job as favourites this tourney 3/3 and at fair prices, 1.85 vs Greece, 2.07 vs Japan and Ivory Coast
 
Chilean historical results vs. Brazil

View attachment 36118

Matches tied specifically to the World Cup

Brazil - 10 wins
Chile - 1 win
Draws - 2
Average 3.23 gpg (Brazil 2.69, Chile 0.54)
At least 3 goals scored in 7 games (53.8% rate)
Chile held scoreless 8 times (61.5% rate)
Brazil held scoreless once (7.7% rate)
 
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I wouldn't bet Chile with your money, Joe. Not saying they can't win (or rather, advance - they might draw in reg. then advance), but it would've been easier for Hitler to win the Jewish Gentile of the year award in '41.
 
I'm just wondering if Rex & I are going to finally end up on the same page for a change come this round.

Been working the majority of the afternoon on a writeup that will be posted either before i go to bed tonight or tomorrow very early.

I disagree with so many things T-Mike has said about Holland on Page 3 that my head is about to explode. He was factually incorrect in saying that Chile closed a slight favorite. Not true, Holland was the consensus favorite at any book that takes a reasonable bet.
 
I wouldn't bet Chile with your money, Joe.

Joke's on you, Bet, because I don't HAVE any money.

Wait. That's not funny at all.

I don't need you to bet on them, I just need to know if would you bet them & Brazil over 2.5? (Hint, the answer we're looking for here is:)

View attachment 36113
 
JoeP, I see you only discuss soccer now. No politics, no Browns ...?

Well, until about two weeks ago I was just way too busy for any of it. Then the primaries ended—just in time for the WC. Which I'd like to say I planned it that way, but I'm not the NV Sec of State. Ha.

Anyhoo, our politics suck right now.

You have one party that is actively breaking the government so it can't function and another party with as many thumbs up its ass as they can fit at the same time. And a political press that can do nothing more than dry hump the leg of Hillary Clinton.

Think about this, John Boehner is now going to sue the President—ostensibly to 'compel him to follow the law' which is bullshit, but that's another story. He's doing this rather than participating in governing the nation. He's not in the minority, he runs an entire house of fucking Congress, how about filing lawsuits, you fucking govern?

I don't care which side of the aisle you are on, what the GOP is doing here is disgusting. They control an entire house of Congress. If they wanted to force Democrats to get enough doctors to staff the VA or fix what is becoming one of the worst infrastructures in the modern world or any of a dozen fucking things, they could. But they won't, actively, proudly. The guy who almost won the Senate primary in Mississippi this week literally said he wouldn't do anything for Mississippi. That was part of his pitch. He also said he may not have voted for federal aid to MS after Hurricane Katrina. Because, you know, freedom and tyranny or some such shit.

Meanwhile over 90% of Americans want something done on guns, namely expanded background checks, and Congress won't do shit. Over 80% of Americans want a raise to the minimum wage, and Congress won't do shit. A majority of Americans want something done on immigration, and Congress won't do shit. By the end of the summer a significant majority of Americans will want us to pull our head out of our ass when it comes to climate change and Congress will respond by saying 'Nah, it's nice and warm up here, smells bad but that's the price you pay for freedomz.'

A poll just came out that says roughly 25% of Americans don't even know which party controls which house of Congress, which I guess makes sense since the GOP refuses to even work in the House more than 115 days this year. But imagine if you tried to work less than four months out of the year, and then while you were there you did nothing more than symbolic work like rearranging your desk and having the exact same meeting that produced zero tangible results for your company over 40 times. You would rightly be fired. And yet every poll right now will accurately tell you that nothing of substance will change in November. Our politics suck and Americans, as we're wont to do, have decided that we can't be bothered to do anything about it. And so really rich, really vested interests, will do their best to buy up our politicians this year and all the rest of us will get thunderfucked with shitty schools and roads and air and water, mostly because we just couldn't bother.

All of which makes you want to listen to the Will McAvoy rant from the first episode of the Newsroom, or just turn off your TV because that's probably where that show peaked, and go the fuck outside before you put your head through a wall.

So with that, you can see how my motivation to go talk politics is pretty low. Ha.

As for the Browns, man ... I think someone on twitter said it best, making believe that the Browns have a functional front office may be the best acting job of Kevin Costner's career.

I have no faith that this team knows what it's dong, which is a shame because guys like Joe Thomas and Joe Haden will end up having great NFL careers that no one ever paid attention to. But it's typical. And I want to like Johnny Football, but the truth is, the guy seems like an insufferable douchebag and I can't help but root for Steny Hoyer to win the job and be the starter for the next six years.

I'd like to be wrong though.

=)


Obama has lost 13 times by unamimous decision in just the last 2 1/2 years, and what the GOP is doing is disgusting LMAO....

I'll let this quote some it from a law professor at George Mason University:

“When the administration loses significant cases in unanimous decisions and cannot even hold the votes of its own appointees . . . it is an indication that they adopted such an extreme position on the scope of federal power that even generally sympathetic judges could not even support it.”

It's a democracy, not a fucking dictatorship. No wonder Eric Holder is the only Attorney General in history to be censured.
 
Been working the majority of the afternoon on a writeup that will be posted either before i go to bed tonight or tomorrow very early.

I disagree with so many things T-Mike has said about Holland on Page 3 that my head is about to explode. He was factually incorrect in saying that Chile closed a slight favorite. Not true, Holland was the consensus favorite at any book that takes a reasonable bet.

http://www.betexplorer.com/soccer/world/world-cup/?stage=61tCiOIs

bet365
Chile 2.60 Draw 3.60 Netherlands 2.75

Pinny
Chile 2.59 Draw 3.63 Netherlands 2.79

SBOBet
Chile 2.58 Draw 3.35 Netherlands 2.75

Betfair
Chile 2.95 Draw 3.23 Netherlands 2.41

Just because your book closed with Netherlands fav doesn't mean that the rest of the world followed suit, if you are calling me out that way then I'd suggest you rethink about what I said.
 
Holland is gonna roll to the Final, have a clear path thru the bottom of that bracket.

Might finally get the Mouse off their back, clearly been the class of the tourney so far.

Chile/Brazil...Match of the WC to date and I like the over. Colombia is playing well, will get past Uruguay.

Greece sux, even CR will get past them.

Argentina are very beatable. Just hope the USA gets a shot at them....a tossup for me vs Belgium.

Germany v France in the quarters will be outstanding.

in 2010 5 of 8 matches in the round of 16 went over 2.5 in regulation while 2 went under 2. in 2006 it was only 2 of 8 over 2.5 with 4 under 2.

In 2002, a more offensive WC similar to this year...only 1 of 8 went over 2.5 and 1 went under 2.

In 2002 there were 130 goals in group play vs 136 so far this WC.
 
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If we are going to constantly talk about how superior the Dutch are to the Mexicans then you also will have to talk about the price. I see a lot of you really high on them then why don't you unload your bankroll...

Why so angry, TM?

Why not unload, well, for many reasons.

1. Bankroll management.

2. You may have noticed some of us have also consistently talked up Mexico throughout the group stage. Personally, I love this Mexico team and as I've said, I wish they didn't have this matchup. Mexico's good and I think the reason the price is where it's at is because it's reflecting the fact that they damn near kept a clean sheet through the entire group stage. People keep saying that the price is off, but is it or is Mexico actually getting the respect they deserve for playing great football through three straight games?

3. Ochoa. Ochoa. Ochoa. He could easily stand on his head here and win this game by himself. He's playing the best in net of any keeper in the World Cup. The guy's ridiculous. I can't imagine ever unloading against someone playing that well unless you had some sort of inside info.

not angry but I'm a bit baffled how people are very quick to jump on Netherlands pasting Mexico.
7 teams scored opening wins by 2 goals or more but only 2 of them did the same damage the next game and 5 of them actually won.
the fact of the matter is that you'd have to be really really shit to lose by a ton.
So based on your second statement, then is it safe to assume the price would be the same if the Dutch were playing CR? I mean the Ticos single handedly put 3 World Class teams in their pocket!
Like I've been saying, if the Dutch were as good as many are saying they are then this price isn't a fair assessment to them.
Heck even during friendlies when shit don't matter they still were quite heavily favored against Ghana and Ecuador.
I'm not saying the Dutch won't win but what I'm saying is that the price given is suggesting for us to be a bit more wiser, the Dutch should really be more of a -120, -130 then a +110
 
Chile/Brazil...Match of the WC to date and I like the over.

See, we can disagree on many things, but not on what's important.

=)
 
Brasil vs Chile has seen o2.5 on 9 straight occasions.
Brasil has won by 2 or more goals on 7 of these occasions
Brasil has scored at least 3 goals in all 9 of those occasions

Pretty much historically speaking, if you were betting on Chile to get a point vs Brasil you'd probably want to bet against a Brasilian fan who'd give you some ridiculous odds.
 
Historically, Brazil and Chile have played 69 times and Brazil has won 48...with 13 draws and only 7 losses. Chile has never beaten Brazil in Brazil.
 
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Chile/Brazil...Match of the WC to date and I like the over.

See, we can disagree on many things, but not on what's important.

=)


:shake:


Netherlands +122 in regulation for me....don't think Mexico take them past the 90+. Depay and Blind have been 2 of the breakout stars so far of this WC
 
The Swiss have not been this big of an underdog since 2011 where they were against England in the Euro qualifier where they ended up drawing 2-2
 
Tend to agree with mike here.

Seems the market has Dutch/mex closer than many on here do.

Personal opinion is that I agree with the price here. Think Mexico will inI no ways be a walkover for the Dutch. But, I'm losing money left and right this tourney

Think mike is just respecting the market, I could be wrong.. He has a good point I think one should be a little concerned that Dutch aren't priced higher considering everyone's high opinions on them
 
as much of a prick most of us think he is, Ronaldo is a pro

[video=youtube;FMaWt8dZWZI]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FMaWt8dZWZI&sns=fb[/video]
 
Mike is sbo sharpest book out there for World Cup or pinny ?

SBO really focuses more on Asian markets but still believe Pinny is a great source.
Betfair as Manu and Billy can attest is also a very very good source for trading.
A couple of my friends have accounts with Samvo which is by invite only so they get better lines.
 
Tend to agree with mike here.

Seems the market has Dutch/mex closer than many on here do.

Personal opinion is that I agree with the price here. Think Mexico will inI no ways be a walkover for the Dutch. But, I'm losing money left and right this tourney

Think mike is just respecting the market, I could be wrong.. He has a good point I think one should be a little concerned that Dutch aren't priced higher considering everyone's high opinions on them

I've been fucked so many times with these types of lines it's unreal, to me this Dutch line is too good to be true for me to put money on them right off the bat. Something stinks when you take a look at the other games, the French whom have been as impressive like the Dutch but have played worse competition are now 1.49 vs Nigeria who if they did play against Mexico would probably get a result.

I'm trying to be clear with others that I did not say the Dutch wouldn't win but I'm more concerned that this line is attracting a shit load of attention. if this line was anywhere close to the France/Nigeria game you'd probably get a lot of people just shrugging and parlaying but there are probably going to be a lot of heavy single wagers on the Dutch yet this line is staying put!
 
I've been fucked so many times with these types of lines it's unreal, to me this Dutch line is too good to be true for me to put money on them right off the bat. Something stinks when you take a look at the other games, the French whom have been as impressive like the Dutch but have played worse competition are now 1.49 vs Nigeria who if they did play against Mexico would probably get a result.

I'm trying to be clear with others that I did not say the Dutch wouldn't win but I'm more concerned that this line is attracting a shit load of attention. if this line was anywhere close to the France/Nigeria game you'd probably get a lot of people just shrugging and parlaying but there are probably going to be a lot of heavy single wagers on the Dutch yet this line is staying put!

Mexico had a strong showing and only have up 1 goal vs tougher competition than Nigeria who has given up 3 goals. I think a lot of people believe Mexico can take them into extra time or even PK's...I will gladly take what I believe to be a deflated line on Netherlands to finish in 90+. Mexico is better than Nigeria is what I take away from the price difference.
 
If we are going to constantly talk about how superior the Dutch are to the Mexicans then you also will have to talk about the price. I see a lot of you really high on them then why don't you unload your bankroll...

Why so angry, TM?

This is the 'saltiness' I was talking about TMike when I said "how about you in the soccer threads" (when you called me salty in that NBA Finals in game). I'm not trying to start a fight or anything, just pointing out that you can be salty yourself (which is all I was saying in that other thread)....and I'm not the one who pointed it out in this case either.

:shake:
 
This is the 'saltiness' I was talking about TMike when I said "how about you in the soccer threads" (when you called me salty in that NBA Finals in game). I'm not trying to start a fight or anything, just pointing out that you can be salty yourself (which is all I was saying in that other thread)....and I'm not the one who pointed it out in this case either.

:shake:

wtf dude?
sheesh you guys and your internet banter are just a bit too weird for my liking. You guys seem to like to take things out of context, did I call JP a piece of shit or something derogatory? Nope, maybe I over exaggerated with the 'unload your bankroll' but i'm trying to make a point that people are jumping the gun very quickly on this bet and nothing more.
so of course you come in here and start shit.
 
When Uruguay takes the pitch this weekend against Colombia in the World Cup, they will do it without star forward Luis Suarez. Why? Because FIFA banned him for four months from so much as stepping foot inside a stadium for biting Italy’s Giorgio Chiellini. On purpose. While playing soccer. Seriously. To make matters worse, this wasn’t even his first offense. This wasn’t even his second offense. This is seriously the third time that Suarez, who also plays for Liverpool, has bit an opponent during a match.
Ian Steadman from New Statesmen got curious about the sheer odds of the danger an opponent has of being bitten by Suarez, and how it compares, say, to the odds of getting bitten by a shark.
Since 2005, Suarez has played in 441 senior matches for Uruguay’s national team and various clubs. Assuming 11 starting players and 3 substitutions per game, 6,160 players have gone up against Suarez and have been at risk of getting bit. That puts the odds Suarez biting an opponent right around 1 in 2,000. The odds of getting killed by a shark while swimming in the ocean? 1 in 3.7 million.
However, the numbers get a little closer if you consider the odds of getting bitten by a shark, even just nipped at. At New Smyrna Beach, Florida, regarded as the shark attack capital of the world, the odds of getting nibbled by a shark if the 22,464 residents go swimming just once per year are 1 in 2,808 on a slow year or 1 in 800 during a record year. Overall, it averages out about 1 in 2,000, just like Suarez. Realistically, the odds may be lower as many people likely go swimming more than once per year.
Even still, the odds of getting bitten by Suarez during a match are still higher than being struck by lightning (1 in 10,000), getting in an plane crash (1 in 11 million), or getting murdered in the Americas (1 in 6,100). However, Suarez isn’t nearly as dangerous as Mike Tyson. The odds of getting bit during a boxing match against Iron Mike is 1 in 50.


 
Do cards reset this round or quarters?

wtf dude?
sheesh you guys and your internet banter are just a bit too weird for my liking. You guys seem to like to take things out of context, did I call JP a piece of shit or something derogatory? Nope, maybe I over exaggerated with the 'unload your bankroll' but i'm trying to make a point that people are jumping the gun very quickly on this bet and nothing more.
so of course you come in here and start shit.

Mike, I wasn't starting shit. You called me salty when I said Ginobli could cover his bald spot with his championship rings....did I call anyone a piece of shit or attack anyone with that post? It goes both ways....if you're going to dish it out, you should be able to take it.....right?

Again, I wasn't trying to start anything (I even said as much in my post ffs).

:shake:
 
Mike, I wasn't starting shit. You called me salty when I said Ginobli could cover his bald spot with his championship rings....did I call anyone a piece of shit or attack anyone with that post? It goes both ways....if you're going to dish it out, you should be able to take it.....right?

Again, I wasn't trying to start anything (I even said as much in my post ffs).

:shake:

dude you've been on my case for such a long time it's annoying.
You called me out when I made a joke about Ginobli all of a sudden you responded and I said so salty but you also could handle a joke too....so I guess it goes both ways.

so here is the question, you say you aren't even trying to start shit so why even make a comment?

at least tipyer is having a bit of fun banter in here.
 
as much of a prick most of us think he is, Ronaldo is a pro

[video=youtube;FMaWt8dZWZI]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FMaWt8dZWZI&sns=fb[/video]

The more you see and hear about CR7, the more you have to respect him. He seems like a really good dude...pure class. Good for him!
 
View attachment 36119

Mexico/Netherlands meetings have never resulted a team being held scoreless.

Someone in here mentioned they liked the over in this game....these scores do nothing to dissuade that wager. Past results probably don't mean too much though when the teams are completely different, but it's still interesting.
 
Colombian historical record vs. Uruguay.

View attachment 36121

Two things strike me here -

(1) In their first 5 games tied to the WC, they combined for 7 goals for an average of 1.40 gpg. In their last 12 games tied to the WC, they've combined to scored 37 goals for an average of 3.08 gpg.

(2) Colombia has only won 1 of their last 8 meetings (thou that sole win was 4-0 in a qualifier for this WC). Futhermore, outside of the 10 years between 1992 & 2001, over the other 60 years since their first meeting Colombia has basically been Uruguay's bitch (amassing a poor w-l-d 7-16-7 record).
 
We need to get to 1,000 pages kj.

Wrong thread.

Right thread to discuss how real the opportunity is for Colombia to dismantle the home team IF there are no shenanigans, big if. And Brazil will score, but so will Colombia, and both will get by fairly easily in the first KO round.

But since it's a Sweet 16 thread, someone please tell me how an overrated Uruguay squad that could have gone pointless w/o Suarez suddenly can beat the Narcos without him.
 
We need to get to 1,000 pages kj.

Wrong thread.

Right thread to discuss how real the opportunity is for Colombia to dismantle the home team IF there are no shenanigans, big if. And Brazil will score, but so will Colombia, and both will get by fairly easily in the first KO round.

Damn...it is the wrong thread. Well, TMike, I'm going to post the same thing in the other thread so we can get the right one to 1,000 pages. :D
 
Someone in here mentioned they liked the over in this game....these scores do nothing to dissuade that wager. Past results probably don't mean too much though when the teams are completely different, but it's still interesting.

I agree the past doesn't rule out present possiblities, but as is the case with Chile facing off against Brazil, the past can condition players to either expect or fear general outcomes, or expect games to be tight or (in this case, the Mex/Holland history) not to be low scoring. And from there, I'm a big believer in mindsets generating outcomes.
 
Colombia and Uruguay will be familiar with each other having played numerous of times but really this is one that we can't look at the h2h.
Both these teams tend to cancel each other out due to each teams home performances.
The other thing to note is the importance of Suarez and Falcao to the national team now we've seen that the Colombians have fared pretty damn well without Falcao but now we have to wonder if the Suarez's absence is really a big blow after all he did score the brace vs England and just caused a stir with the Italians D.
Personally think uruguay is not the same without the Shark.
 
BC,
I'm trying to figure out how much of a difference we would see if Suarez was in line up.
Neutral ground here yet the price is very similar as if it was in Colombia.
 
Personally think uruguay is not the same without the Shark.

He doesn't mean much to their D. Outside of that 2nd half vs. Costa Rica, they conceded in their other 5 halves 0, 0, 1, 0 & 0 goals, and they shut Colombia out in their home qualifying fixture for this WC. I think there's a danger (for anyone liking the Over given Colombia's rate of scoring to this point) that Uruguay could play wholly negatively and try and steal a late winner, or settle for extra time hopes.
1-0 either way (after a 0-0 1st h) here would be no surprise to me.
 
BC,
I'm trying to figure out how much of a difference we would see if Suarez was in line up.
Neutral ground here yet the price is very similar as if it was in Colombia.

Has to be due to the ease in which the Columbians seem to be getting their cocaine delivered to Brazil.
 
interesting, I've been trying to look at South American teams facing each other in the knockout stages but have only found 2 games since 1998 and both were Brasil v Chile and both were Brasil wins.
 
Greece/CR game is a head scratcher I am slowly leaning towards the Greeks.
Since 2002, games with very similar lines in the knockout stages

2002:
Japan 2.50 Draw 2.96 Turkey 3.01
Turkey won 1-0

2006:
Last 16
Netherlands 2.35 Draw 3.01 Portugal 3.11
Portugal won 1-0

Swiss 2.39 Draw 3.02 Ukraine 3.05
Ukraine won 1-0 ET

Spain 2.32 Draw 2.98 France 3.22
France won 3-1

Q-Finals
Germany 2.59 Draw 2.99 Argentina 2.82
Germany won on penalties

Germany 2.41 Draw 2.86 Italy 3.22
Italy won 2-0 ET

Finals
Italy 2.54 Draw 2.78 France 3.14
Italy won in penalties

2010:
Last 16
USA 2.39 Draw 3.08 Ghana 3.16
Ghana won 2-1 ET

England 2.59 Draw 3.00 Germany 2.96
Germany won 4-1

Q-Finals
Argentina 2.29 Draw 3.24 Germany 3.18
Germany won 4-0

Spain 2.53 Draw 3.33 Germany 2.77
Spain won 1-0

the slight fav here hasn't done well.
So pretty much based on these lines playing Greece 0 might be the way to go.
 
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