World Cup **Sweet 16 Stage** Discussion

The short version of where I'm at:

Teams I like to advance:
Costa Rica
Argentina
Brazil
Netherlands
Germany
France
Belgium
Columbia

And when you say that out loud you think, 'Well, shit, those are all favorites.' Somewhere in there you have to get an underdog, no? Problem is, from what I'm seeing, all these teams are significantly better than the team their facing.

There are underdogs who will score though, and I think that may be where I have to try to make some money. Team totals on teams like Algeria, Mexico, the Swiss. I feel like they'll get one, just not win.

Specific plays I'm looking at:

Les Dutch in regular time
I love this Mexico team, they're so much fun to watch and this game may be one of the most fun to watch of the whole tournament. But I feel like the Van Hollands are going to put like 65 shots on net in this thing. Ochoa's good enough that he'll probably stop 63 of 'em, but I don't think that's going to be enough. I may also look at the over in this game. I don't think the Netherlands care if Mexico scores, really, if it comes to it they should honestly be able to outscore them.

Costa Rica RT/to advance split
I'm splitting this bet between regular time and to advance. CR is arguably playing as well as any team in this tournament right now, no way you can go against that and the price is short. Also, I don't believe in Greece, so there's that.

Columbia in regular time
I swear this isn't because I'm an Italy fan and want to see Uruguay get pounded in the face repeatedly with a cockmeat sandwich. I mean, well, OK, that's true, but I still think Columbia's actually good and better than this shit team. Here's the thing, I think Costa Rica was really the only good team in that group, other than perhaps Italy on the right day. But Columbia would beat Italy here either 2-0 or 2-1 as well. Columbia's just solid and they score goals. Not sure how URU will be doing that in this one.

Brazil/Chile over 2.5
Yes, please. I may actually take some of the plus money on the over 3 here too as I expect this game to be loads of fun to watch as well. Chile never once seemed to me like a team that wasn't ready to run and give up chances. Maybe they're smart enough to realize that if you do that with Brazil you're going to give up 5, but I'd be surprised if Brazil can't get them to open up, that's what Chile wants to do naturally so it would be almost against the nature of this squad to do do otherwise.

Netherlands/Mexico over 2.5
Basically my take on this game is that the Dutch will be too much for Ochoa. If that happens, I think they get to this number—which you can have at plus money. But the way Mexico plays, I think they're going to be good for a goal here. I'm thinking 3-1 Hollish.

There may be more, probably will, but that's it for now. Good luck this round, gents.
 
Very curious as to why lots think Dutch would paste Mexico...after all Mexico were dog shit prior to tourney and the Dutch are only +100? Weird
 
I like this Mexico team a lot, but here's why I think the Dutch matchup for them is terrible.

If you look at the games, Mexico has been giving up a lot of chances. It's partly their style because what makes them fun to watch is that they're fast, they break out and they move the ball around a lot. The problem is, they're not extraordinarily crisp at it. They're good, they're just not Brazil. What this leads to is turnovers and chances going the other way. So now you flip the coin ...

The Dutch have shown over and over in this WC that if you give them chances, they will finish. Consistently they've found the back of the net when given the opportunity. So now you have a team that's been giving up chances facing a team that's been converting consistently on chances. It's kind of a nightmare scenario for Mexico in that regard because now they either need to change styles and play ball control, or hope they can out-score the Dutch. I don't think anyone realistically feels they can do the latter, and to me the Dutch are too skilled, both individually and as a squad, to keep turning the ball over to Mexico and lose the time of possession battle so dramatically that Mexico can keep it 1-1 forever.

Also, if you want to see a template of how I think the Netherlands score, see that goal Croatia scored late against Mexico. That's the template I think you see a lot of from the Dutch in this game.

Again, I'd just like to add that I think it's a shame Mexico drew this matchup. Put them against Belgium and I think it's a great game, CR, probably a great game with a chance to upset them as well. They'd beat Uruguay, probably Algeria too. Even a rematch against Brazil would probably be a great game. I just believe this particular draw really sucks for them.
 
I just want Mexico and Greece to advance so I can continue my World Cup lunch tour. Tacos and gyros > Danishes.
 
Italy getting bounced put a serious dent in the lunch tour.
 
Go try something new, there's gotta be some South American cuisine somewhere around there, not saying it's good necessarily
 
I'm sure this sounds really, really, really American, but ... Uruguaian (sp?) food? Umm ... uh ... no, thanks.
 
Columbia still around in this thing? I have a Columbian place literally at the corner of my street. Never been. (Scared.) Used to be a gyro joint, dammit.
 
JoeP, I see you only discuss soccer now. No politics, no Browns ...?
 
JoeP, I see you only discuss soccer now. No politics, no Browns ...?

Well, until about two weeks ago I was just way too busy for any of it. Then the primaries ended—just in time for the WC. Which I'd like to say I planned it that way, but I'm not the NV Sec of State. Ha.

Anyhoo, our politics suck right now.

You have one party that is actively breaking the government so it can't function and another party with as many thumbs up its ass as they can fit at the same time. And a political press that can do nothing more than dry hump the leg of Hillary Clinton.

Think about this, John Boehner is now going to sue the President—ostensibly to 'compel him to follow the law' which is bullshit, but that's another story. He's doing this rather than participating in governing the nation. He's not in the minority, he runs an entire house of fucking Congress, how about filing lawsuits, you fucking govern?

I don't care which side of the aisle you are on, what the GOP is doing here is disgusting. They control an entire house of Congress. If they wanted to force Democrats to get enough doctors to staff the VA or fix what is becoming one of the worst infrastructures in the modern world or any of a dozen fucking things, they could. But they won't, actively, proudly. The guy who almost won the Senate primary in Mississippi this week literally said he wouldn't do anything for Mississippi. That was part of his pitch. He also said he may not have voted for federal aid to MS after Hurricane Katrina. Because, you know, freedom and tyranny or some such shit.

Meanwhile over 90% of Americans want something done on guns, namely expanded background checks, and Congress won't do shit. Over 80% of Americans want a raise to the minimum wage, and Congress won't do shit. A majority of Americans want something done on immigration, and Congress won't do shit. By the end of the summer a significant majority of Americans will want us to pull our head out of our ass when it comes to climate change and Congress will respond by saying 'Nah, it's nice and warm up here, smells bad but that's the price you pay for freedomz.'

A poll just came out that says roughly 25% of Americans don't even know which party controls which house of Congress, which I guess makes sense since the GOP refuses to even work in the House more than 115 days this year. But imagine if you tried to work less than four months out of the year, and then while you were there you did nothing more than symbolic work like rearranging your desk and having the exact same meeting that produced zero tangible results for your company over 40 times. You would rightly be fired. And yet every poll right now will accurately tell you that nothing of substance will change in November. Our politics suck and Americans, as we're wont to do, have decided that we can't be bothered to do anything about it. And so really rich, really vested interests, will do their best to buy up our politicians this year and all the rest of us will get thunderfucked with shitty schools and roads and air and water, mostly because we just couldn't bother.

All of which makes you want to listen to the Will McAvoy rant from the first episode of the Newsroom, or just turn off your TV because that's probably where that show peaked, and go the fuck outside before you put your head through a wall.

So with that, you can see how my motivation to go talk politics is pretty low. Ha.

As for the Browns, man ... I think someone on twitter said it best, making believe that the Browns have a functional front office may be the best acting job of Kevin Costner's career.

I have no faith that this team knows what it's dong, which is a shame because guys like Joe Thomas and Joe Haden will end up having great NFL careers that no one ever paid attention to. But it's typical. And I want to like Johnny Football, but the truth is, the guy seems like an insufferable douchebag and I can't help but root for Steny Hoyer to win the job and be the starter for the next six years.

I'd like to be wrong though.

=)
 
That's a lot of thoughts, and I haven't read it all yet much less digested, ...

but too many thumbs up an ass is funny. And pornographic.
 
Hahahahahaha. I blame Tip, he bought me the first drink.

And look how he was dressed, HE WAS ASKING FOR IT.

=)
 
JoeP, I see you only discuss soccer now. No politics, no Browns ...?

Well, until about two weeks ago I was just way too busy for any of it. Then the primaries ended—just in time for the WC. Which I'd like to say I planned it that way, but I'm not the NV Sec of State. Ha.

Anyhoo, our politics suck right now.

You have one party that is actively breaking the government so it can't function and another party with as many thumbs up its ass as they can fit at the same time. And a political press that can do nothing more than dry hump the leg of Hillary Clinton.

Think about this, John Boehner is now going to sue the President—ostensibly to 'compel him to follow the law' which is bullshit, but that's another story. He's doing this rather than participating in governing the nation. He's not in the minority, he runs an entire house of fucking Congress, how about filing lawsuits, you fucking govern?

I don't care which side of the aisle you are on, what the GOP is doing here is disgusting. They control an entire house of Congress. If they wanted to force Democrats to get enough doctors to staff the VA or fix what is becoming one of the worst infrastructures in the modern world or any of a dozen fucking things, they could. But they won't, actively, proudly. The guy who almost won the Senate primary in Mississippi this week literally said he wouldn't do anything for Mississippi. That was part of his pitch. He also said he may not have voted for federal aid to MS after Hurricane Katrina. Because, you know, freedom and tyranny or some such shit.

Meanwhile over 90% of Americans want something done on guns, namely expanded background checks, and Congress won't do shit. Over 80% of Americans want a raise to the minimum wage, and Congress won't do shit. A majority of Americans want something done on immigration, and Congress won't do shit. By the end of the summer a significant majority of Americans will want us to pull our head out of our ass when it comes to climate change and Congress will respond by saying 'Nah, it's nice and warm up here, smells bad but that's the price you pay for freedomz.'

A poll just came out that says roughly 25% of Americans don't even know which party controls which house of Congress, which I guess makes sense since the GOP refuses to even work in the House more than 115 days this year. But imagine if you tried to work less than four months out of the year, and then while you were there you did nothing more than symbolic work like rearranging your desk and having the exact same meeting that produced zero tangible results for your company over 40 times. You would rightly be fired. And yet every poll right now will accurately tell you that nothing of substance will change in November. Our politics suck and Americans, as we're wont to do, have decided that we can't be bothered to do anything about it. And so really rich, really vested interests, will do their best to buy up our politicians this year and all the rest of us will get thunderfucked with shitty schools and roads and air and water, mostly because we just couldn't bother.

All of which makes you want to listen to the Will McAvoy rant from the first episode of the Newsroom, or just turn off your TV because that's probably where that show peaked, and go the fuck outside before you put your head through a wall.

So with that, you can see how my motivation to go talk politics is pretty low. Ha.

As for the Browns, man ... I think someone on twitter said it best, making believe that the Browns have a functional front office may be the best acting job of Kevin Costner's career.

I have no faith that this team knows what it's dong, which is a shame because guys like Joe Thomas and Joe Haden will end up having great NFL careers that no one ever paid attention to. But it's typical. And I want to like Johnny Football, but the truth is, the guy seems like an insufferable douchebag and I can't help but root for Steny Hoyer to win the job and be the starter for the next six years.

I'd like to be wrong though.

=)

I've switched sides at least twice on Manziel. Not even talking football. Until he has to be brought back to life in a hotel room just to practice, I think I got his professional back. Deuchebags gonna be deuchebags. He hasn't even had a training camp yet, let's chill. Hoyer's the guy anyway.
 
You guys would not believe how much run Manziel gets on sports talk here. Sports talk radio hosts picking potato chips out of their asses are interviewing intervention specialists with specializations in alcohol, and coming to conclusions.
 
I've switched sides at least twice on Manziel. Not even talking football. Until he has to be brought back to life in a hotel room just to practice, I think I got his professional back. Deuchebags gonna be deuchebags. He hasn't even had a training camp yet, let's chill. Hoyer's the guy anyway.

We can go back to the important football in a minute, but staying on American football for a second I read a interesting thing on why both Hoyer & the Browns are basically fucked if they stick with Hoyer. And that's because the fans are always going to want Manzel. Basically any more you draft a QB to play right away. So when you take a guy like this and stick him on the bench, the clock on your starter has already begun to tick and it's the worst kept secret for the franchise. Everybody knows it.

One bad game and the chorus starts. And, as we all know, this team will have some bad games.

So basically all you're really doing is killing time until you start Manzel and destroy Hoyer's career in Cleveland. Because that's how this ends if you go that route, it always does.

And then, if Manzel flames out, you can't go back to Hoyer because Hoyer is either off the team or already burned so he might as well be off the team.

In short, basically you need to start Manzel and just roll the dice. And really, based on the history of the franchise, that's what we should do.

That said, as I mentioned, as much as I want to like Manzel he seems like pretty much everything there is to hate about a professional athlete—and he embraces it. I'd love to be wrong. I'd love for him to be all in on the joke and just playing it up like a wrestling villain, but I don't think that's the case.

Last, honestly, I'm not even sure why you draft this kid if you're the Browns. Everyone is new on this franchise, they're not set up to handle a guy like this. If you wanted to draft a franchise QB, that's fine. Trade up and draft one of the stable ones. If you're wrong, so be it. But if you're wrong here it's just more evidence that you never really had an idea what you were doing—and it could burn yet another new coaching staff in the process.
 
See, now you all remember why you didn't miss me, coming in and completely de-railing threads like this. Joe's a jerk.

=}
 
Really so how is it that the Aussies were able to some how get 2? and a blunder by the keeper gave the Dutch a 3-2 win? Come on dude lets face it as good as the Dutch are on paper they faced 3 other teams that were mediocre. The 5-1 was blown out of proportion vs Spain team that was just clueless even a team such as Brasil would of problem demolished them. All I'm saying is that people will overreact, as you said it's all about tactics, fair enough but if they played against another team that actually has some tactical advantage they wouldn't be running the show. If the Dutch were playing in the same group as the Gerries that would be a different setting. Infact the Dutch would find it quite hard playing the US simply because they do not fare well against organized squads. Lets face it the Dutch are now the best team to have never won a world cup, is this the year they break the duck? Not with the defence they have, France, Germany, Brasil, Argentina and even Colombia have squads that can beat them.
You can't expect this Dutch team to stick with the same tactics against the above squads and have success, they will have to adjust and if they are lets say playing any of those teams being a goal down, they are going to open up big time and will get exposed.

Don't take Holland's game with the Aussie's too serious. A little overconfidence paired with underestimating.
 
Very curious as to why lots think Dutch would paste Mexico...after all Mexico were dog shit prior to tourney and the Dutch are only +100? Weird

I didn't think Mexico was dogshit prior. Had sizable bet on them to advance and some on them winning group. Mexico always had the potential to be a decent side. Took the right hire to make it happen. And the Dutch I have winning the cup. Mexico, while enjoyable to watch, won't match up well against Holland in the back. Their defenders are ballhawks and get caught watching too much. The speed of Robben and class the VP will be too much. Mexico, like Chile, just go forward and aren't completely organised all the time. The dutch are just too good and will exploit every mistake. Ochoa won't get as lucky with poor finishing in this one. Only hope is that Holland isn't looking ahead like the Aussie game. Don't think that happens, though, as Robben has been awesome leader on field this time. He isn't whining, he's cheering on team and isn't bitching and complaining at everyone. Looks like he's on a mission.
 
Don't take Holland's game with the Aussie's too serious. A little overconfidence paired with underestimating.

then its the same don't take hollands game with Spain too serious.
Teed had a very simply over view as to why he took Spain/Chile u2.5 after the Dutch on big, chances weren't all over the place but when they were there the team converted.
 
then its the same don't take hollands game with Spain too serious.
Teed had a very simply over view as to why he took Spain/Chile u2.5 after the Dutch on big, chances weren't all over the place but when they were there the team converted.

I'm not taking dutch/spain game too serious. I had the dutch winning that one. Dutch are a good group and this tourney is set up for them to excel. Everyone has opened up and is playing with the exception of Greece and USA.
 
I'm not taking dutch/spain game too serious. I had the dutch winning that one. Dutch are a good group and this tourney is set up for them to excel. Everyone has opened up and is playing with the exception of Greece and USA.

Good group? Umm you may want to see what happened earlier on in training camp. Robben was moaning and being a prick. Whether they figured shit out is one thing but the potential of a headcase is there.
Time and time again the Dutch were always in contention and failed to convert how are they any different now? If they play against Brasil, Robben's pace is not an issue for Alves or Marcelo. They've been scoring some ridiculous goals, stop Robben and for the most part they will be dealt with.

The line is suggesting a lot more than what people think. If they are the best team in the tournament so far then +111 where they are will easily be hammered by a lot but for some reason the line is creeping up. Like I said, the Dutch when favored usually play down to the level of their opposition. They are very good underdogs funny enough they were slight underdogs closing vs Chile beat them convincingly, were rather poor vs Australia as -1.5 vs and destroyed World Champs as +0.5 dogs.

I'd be more inclined to play the Dutch if they were perhaps -130 or a pk but I'm not really like the line where they are now.
 
I'd be more inclined to play the Dutch if they were perhaps -130 or a pk but I'm not really like the line where they are now.

Then take them at -180 to advance.

=)
 
Good group? Umm you may want to see what happened earlier on in training camp. Robben was moaning and being a prick. Whether they figured shit out is one thing but the potential of a headcase is there.
Time and time again the Dutch were always in contention and failed to convert how are they any different now? If they play against Brasil, Robben's pace is not an issue for Alves or Marcelo. They've been scoring some ridiculous goals, stop Robben and for the most part they will be dealt with.

The line is suggesting a lot more than what people think. If they are the best team in the tournament so far then +111 where they are will easily be hammered by a lot but for some reason the line is creeping up. Like I said, the Dutch when favored usually play down to the level of their opposition. They are very good underdogs funny enough they were slight underdogs closing vs Chile beat them convincingly, were rather poor vs Australia as -1.5 vs and destroyed World Champs as +0.5 dogs.

I'd be more inclined to play the Dutch if they were perhaps -130 or a pk but I'm not really like the line where they are now.

Maybe they aren't the best team left, but I certainly think they have the best shot (easiest road) to win it. Maybe i'm retarded, but i've had the dutch winning this cup since the Ghana friendly.

And in my next post I said Robben has been great. Whatever was the problem seems to be gone at this moment. I won't get off the dutch until they make an exit.
 
How about the Yanks getting out of the group of death? That's something, you analytic monsters.
 
Maybe they aren't the best team left, but I certainly think they have the best shot (easiest road) to win it. Maybe i'm retarded, but i've had the dutch winning this cup since the Ghana friendly.

And in my next post I said Robben has been great. Whatever was the problem seems to be gone at this moment. I won't get off the dutch until they make an exit.

In terms of the road to the finals, absolutely you are right you are sitting pretty with your Dutch Futures, but I'm looking at the current situation. The books must know there is going to be a ton of action on the Dutch considering they just destroyed their group. But be honest though, don't you think this line is a bit odd? How is it that on a neutral field, the Dutch play extremely well having played against 2 top tier teams and they are plus money against an "OK" Mexican side?
 
How about the Yanks getting out of the group of death? That's something, you analytic monsters.

why was it called the group of death, most would of said it was Spain/Netherlands/Chile/Australia
That term is over played because the most interesting groups are usually the ones where it is just wide open.
The England/Italy/CR/Uruguay was also a group of death
 
Group of death, that's that... Maybe you just don't know soccer, which is OK.
 
In terms of the road to the finals, absolutely you are right you are sitting pretty with your Dutch Futures, but I'm looking at the current situation. The books must know there is going to be a ton of action on the Dutch considering they just destroyed their group. But be honest though, don't you think this line is a bit odd? How is it that on a neutral field, the Dutch play extremely well having played against 2 top tier teams and they are plus money against an "OK" Mexican side?

I'm suspicious of Holland's to advance odds, as well. I think you have to respect the fact Mexico conceded 1 utterly meaningless goal (meaningless because they were up 3-0 with 3 mins to go in their final group match when it was scored) in 3 games (incl. having faced Brazil), where the Dutch conceded 3 in 2 games (going behind the on the scoreboard in each game) before their 3rd game shutout. If I was to pick last 16 "shocker" after the welter of fav results from the 3rd group games, this would be it (the US beating Belgium wouldn't be any shocker to me, need I add).
 
In terms of the road to the finals, absolutely you are right you are sitting pretty with your Dutch Futures, but I'm looking at the current situation. The books must know there is going to be a ton of action on the Dutch considering they just destroyed their group. But be honest though, don't you think this line is a bit odd? How is it that on a neutral field, the Dutch play extremely well having played against 2 top tier teams and they are plus money against an "OK" Mexican side?

The line is really scary for Dutch backers. Not sure what they are seeing. I've looked at this a lot of ways and watched all tournament as this was the first round matchup i expected. I cannot see the mexicans hanging with dutch here, but something is off. Still haven't figured if i'm going to start hedging.
 
why was it called the group of death, most would of said it was Spain/Netherlands/Chile/Australia
That term is over played because the most interesting groups are usually the ones where it is just wide open.
The England/Italy/CR/Uruguay was also a group of death

I agree but while the rankings mean shit, thats what the group term refers to by the press. It is what it is and made for good tv for espn. Most of the groups were death groups.
 
The line is really scary for Dutch backers. Not sure what they are seeing. I've looked at this a lot of ways and watched all tournament as this was the first round matchup i expected. I cannot see the mexicans hanging with dutch here, but something is off. Still haven't figured if i'm going to start hedging.

I mean heck we can be over thinking but I'm quite surprised that money is coming in for Mexico too. I seriously think this game has ET written all over it.
 
I mean heck we can be over thinking but I'm quite surprised that money is coming in for Mexico too. I seriously think this game has ET written all over it.

I can see the money coming in for Mexico. It has been great for 3 games. On top of that ESPN is sucking on Herrera's stussy.

I can't see this one going ET. RVP and Robben are just too good for Mexico in my opinion. The dutch mids have been iffy at times. De Jong has evolved all tournament and now his role is established and I think he's in form for what is needed of him. The back line has its moments but Blind has been great and his services are better than anything Mexico has seen. And up front RVP and Robben have too much class and their work ethic has been ridiculous so far. I really think Mexico is going to get humbled.
 
The Netherlands/Mexico game breaks down really simply.

Do you think Ochoa can stop the Dutch offense?

Answer that question and therein lies your wager.
 
The Netherlands/Mexico game breaks down really simply.

Do you think Ochoa can stop the Dutch offense?

Answer that question and therein lies your wager.

He stopped Croatia and Brasil offence....and please do not mention about "converting" chances, there's a reason why there are goal keepers. Their job is to stop shots.
If we are going to constantly talk about how superior the Dutch are to the Mexicans then you also will have to talk about the price. I see a lot of you really high on them then why don't you unload your bankroll...
 
Dutch couldn't stop the Socceroos from soccer 2 goals lol so does that mean their offence is better than Spain's and Chile's?
 
I agree that Belgium doesn't seem as great as first advertised, but they have only given up 1 goal so far and it was a penalty.

Group H was the 3rd lowest scoring group of the WC: 15 goals, 1 more than group F's 14 goals & 3 more than group D's 12 goals. But that includes the completely out-of-the-box 4-2 result by Algeria over Sth Korea (Algeria scored twice as many goals against Sth Korea as they had over their 7 previous WC matches. That's how out of left-field that offensive effort was). A more normal kind of scoreline in that game between those 2 offenses (2-1 tops) meant group H would've been at least the equal lowest scoring group. In other words, Belgium's near clean sheet is a more a testament to the toothless attacks they faced as much as anything else.

And let's not forget, Belgium scored the least amount of goals (4) of any group winner (& if Algeria hadn't lost its head late & settled for a point instead of risking defense for attack, that total would be 3 goals). Costa Rica also scored 4 (who doesn't give Greece a chance in that game?), then the next lowest was Argentina (6 - I'm not impressed with them at all, far too Messi dependent). The decent group winners start in on 7 goals scored, almost twice as many as the Belgians.

So, the US potentially gets to face the worst 2 group winning offenses. That's why they have a shot at the semis imo.
 
If we are going to constantly talk about how superior the Dutch are to the Mexicans then you also will have to talk about the price. I see a lot of you really high on them then why don't you unload your bankroll...

Why so angry, TM?

Why not unload, well, for many reasons.

1. Bankroll management.

2. You may have noticed some of us have also consistently talked up Mexico throughout the group stage. Personally, I love this Mexico team and as I've said, I wish they didn't have this matchup. Mexico's good and I think the reason the price is where it's at is because it's reflecting the fact that they damn near kept a clean sheet through the entire group stage. People keep saying that the price is off, but is it or is Mexico actually getting the respect they deserve for playing great football through three straight games?

3. Ochoa. Ochoa. Ochoa. He could easily stand on his head here and win this game by himself. He's playing the best in net of any keeper in the World Cup. The guy's ridiculous. I can't imagine ever unloading against someone playing that well unless you had some sort of inside info.
 
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