What Have We Learned So Far Before Playoff Rankings?

[twinkie13]

Arkansas is bad. Like real bad. I liked the hire initially. Boy was I wrong. He hasn’t won an SEC game I don’t think.

I still don’t believe UGA.

Northwestern. Jesus.

Tulane became bowl eligible. Tough sledding going forward, too. Wonder is they turn up or turn down.

Big week coming......,

 

[RetroVK]

Week to week the variance from play seems much larger than normal.

ECU cannot score on USF but can dump 40 on cinci

USC can move it on ND but cannot do anything against the duck defense

Ga southern cannot get a first down against south alabama but can run it all over app st on the road

Unlv can move it on boise, vandy and sdsu but not on csu

There is far less consistency to the game this year

 

[JohnnyGambler]

I've learned betting is simple. Bet on good teams and bet against bad ones.

Teams with 1 or fewer losses: 101-61-3 ATS (62.3%)
Teams with 1 or fewer wins: 19-48-1 ATS (28.4%)

That is closing lines too and games where a 1 or fewer loss team vs a 1 or fewer win team have not been filtered out. No doubt those numbers are better than they appear.

 

[KobeJames823]

I've learned betting is simple. Bet on good teams and bet against bad ones.

Teams with 1 or fewer losses: 101-61-3 ATS (62.3%)
Teams with 1 or fewer wins: 19-48-1 ATS (28.4%)

That is closing lines too and games where a 1 or fewer loss team vs a 1 or fewer win team have not been filtered out. No doubt those numbers are better than they appear.

I also think that this applies to the conference schedule. Find a clear difference in class and don’t be afraid to play it either way. I think of a few short lines this week (Indiana -8, KSt -5, BG -5, CST -8) and how easily those covered when it was clear the difference in team.

Next week, you have a few chances potentially

Pur @ NW
Md @ OSU
Mass @ Army

 

[gps_3]

Have UCONN, UMASS or Akron covered a game in which they didn’t play each other?

 

[M.W.]

When Syracuse took a 7-3 lead over BC yesterday, that was the first lead change in a Syracuse game this season. That's pretty amazing.

 

[Frank Costanza]

K State plays as tough and hard as anyone in the country. They may be out-athleted (word?) but no one will be tougher. Helluva job by Klieman.

 

[CPA-hole]

It's good to see teams like Oregon St and Illinois having some success.

Agreed with Frank on K-State. Nice follow up win.

Florida lost that game on the first drive of the game when they were moving the ball and had 4th and a few inches. Instead of having Trask fall forward for a 1st down, they line him up in the shotgun and try to throw for a first down.

Also learned Herby doesn't seem to be a fan of what's going on at FSU and neither do the higher ups. Bye, Willie.

 

[AliShaheed]

Florida lost that game on the first drive of the game when they were moving the ball and had 4th and a few inches. Instead of having Trask fall forward for a 1st down, they line him up in the shotgun and try to throw for a first down.

Dead on. What a strange call in that situation. Even more demoralizing because they had the first down on the previous play but they overturned the spot after replay.

 

[booksbestfriend]

Have UCONN, UMASS or Akron covered a game in which they didn’t play each other?

Yes, UCONN vs UCF. UCF shut it down 2H.

 

[Frank Costanza]

Florida lost that game on the first drive of the game when they were moving the ball and had 4th and a few inches. Instead of having Trask fall forward for a 1st down, they line him up in the shotgun and try to throw for a first down.

To one of my biggest pet peeves....the QB sneak just doesn't get used enough....especially with a QB that big.

Dear lord.

 

[lvmike32]

Next season we need a Blind fade thread that we can get on fairly early in the season. Has betting UMASS' opponent TT Over lost yet this year? I was going to bet Liberty O 46.5 but figured trend was due to stop. oddsmakers would catch up, etc. Think they covered at half or close to it.

 

[gps_3]

Next season we need a Blind fade thread that we can get on fairly early in the season. Has betting UMASS' opponent TT Over lost yet this year? I was going to bet Liberty O 46.5 but figured trend was due to stop. oddsmakers would catch up, etc. Think they covered at half or close to it.

We had a thread about it a few weeks ago. I’ve found it to be one if the most consistent ways to win over the last few seasons

 

[EL CAPO]

Yes, UCONN vs UCF. UCF shut it down 2H.

also uconn covered at home vs illinois. like a 10 point game. I had illinois. Don't think I've won a game with them all season. There was plenty of reason to fade illinois based on eastern michigan and uconn and then all of a sudden they start looking like a different team.

 

[M.O.T]

I’ve learned that I was way off on my Ohio State rating coming into the season. I may be too high on them now (about a FG better than my #2 and close to a TD over #3/4) but I’ve moved them close to 2 TDs since the preseason.

 

[detroit187]

I know the top 5 were on bye this week, Clemson included but nobody outside of Ducks wowed me as a very good team.

I’ll sound like a homer here for a minute and I’m as hard on Michigan as most so not my style but I don’t see any inferiority to SEC teams like Fla UGA Auburn. Pretty much the same shit if you ask me. I keep wanting to be impressed by Georgia but I’m not.

Committee rankings should be interesting this week. If you see Auburn and Florida in top 10/11 with 2 losses we are going to see 1 loss SEC team as #4. It’ll be ironic when the same thing used to prop up SEC is used against Ducks won’t it?

 

[twinkie13]

K State plays as tough and hard as anyone in the country. They may be out-athleted (word?) but no one will be tougher. Helluva job by Klieman.

I’ve been impressed.....like they haven’t missed a beat. No one has done more with less. Wonder where the coach learned that?

 

[twinkie13]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1191011678072258562

 

[twinkie13]

Tweet of the week lol

 

[twinkie13]

I know the top 5 were on bye this week, Clemson included but nobody outside of Ducks wowed me as a very good team.

I’ll sound like a homer here for a minute and I’m as hard on Michigan as most so not my style but I don’t see any inferiority to SEC teams like Fla UGA Auburn. Pretty much the same shit if you ask me. I keep wanting to be impressed by Georgia but I’m not.

Committee rankings should be interesting this week. If you see Auburn and Florida in top 10/11 with 2 losses we are going to see 1 loss SEC team as #4. It’ll be ironic when the same thing used to prop up SEC is used against Ducks won’t it?

I don’t believe UGA either.

 

[s--k]

Akron was held to 100 yards on 57 plays and turned the ball over twice. BG won 35-6 but only produced 276 yards on 83 plays. BG had 17-7 FD edge. BG D got 6 sacks and 13 TFL Akron was just 1-of-13 3rd down (BG was 10-of-21).

Central Michigan won 48-10 behind a 615-251 TY edge. NIU did turn the ball over 4x.

Buffalo had 26-6 FD edge and 460-210 TY edge. Bulls ran for 252.

 

[s--k]

Auburn outgained Ole Miss 507-266. Auburn ran 90 plays to OM’s 69. Auburn missed FGs on their first two drives, then fumbled in OM territory on their 3rd drive (124 yards no points). Ole Miss ran 6 offensive plays in AU territory until a 55y punt return set them up at the A23 and OM was able to get a TD 3 plays later to make it 10-7 before HT. Auburn led just 20-7 when Ole Miss went on a 15p 81y drive where they converted 4th down twice and got a TD with under 6min left…20-14. Auburn would miss their 3rd FG of the game which allowed Ole Miss to threaten at the end of the game, gaining 33y on their first play but holding brought it back. They still got to the A35 before Plumlee was pressured and threw an INT on 4th down which Auburn ran back 57y as time expired.

 

[s--k]

Charlotte owned a 440-333 TY edge in the 34-20 win. MTSU did lose 2 turnovers (led to two FGs). MTSU led 7-0 then punted on their next 4 poss, threw an INT that allowed Charlotte to kick a FG as time expired in the 1st H as Charlotte was scoring 34 unanswered points. It was 34-7 went MTSU scored TDs on a 5p 75y and 11p 80y TD drives for the 34-20 F. CUSA leading rusher Benny LeMay DNP but Charlotte still ran for 248 (4.5).

FIU won 24-17 with a 383-233 TY edge (5.2-3.8). ODU lost 2 TOs (one led to 3 FIU pts, the other didn’t matter). FIU lost 1 TO (led to 7 ODU pts). FIU led just 9-7 HT despite having a 184-56 TY edge. ODU had a 1p 4y “drive” after a sack fumble to lead 7-0. FIU kicked FGs from the O04, O14 and O25 (after recovering an ODU fumble and not being able to move the ball). ODU had a FG blk’d and FIU missed a 50y FG. FIU would then miss a 32y FG on the opening possession of the 3rd Q. A 54y pass keyed FIU’s next possession ending in a TD...16-7. ODU pinned FIU deep on a punt which turned out to help their field possession on the ensuing FIU punt and ODU was able to drive 10p 45y for a 22y FG…16-10 early 4th Q. FIU went up 24-10 mid 4th and ODU scored TD with under 3min left for the 24-17 Final. ODU gained 139 yards on their final 4 possessions (10 pts on those drives). ODU D had 11 TFL! (FIU had 8). Each team was just 4-of-15 on 3rd down.

 

[guaranteeed]

I know the top 5 were on bye this week, Clemson included but nobody outside of Ducks wowed me as a very good team.

I’ll sound like a homer here for a minute and I’m as hard on Michigan as most so not my style but I don’t see any inferiority to SEC teams like Fla UGA Auburn. Pretty much the same shit if you ask me. I keep wanting to be impressed by Georgia but I’m not.

Committee rankings should be interesting this week. If you see Auburn and Florida in top 10/11 with 2 losses we are going to see 1 loss SEC team as #4. It’ll be ironic when the same thing used to prop up SEC is used against Ducks won’t it?

I really like this ducks team, think they are undefeated if even 1 of those receivers was available 2nd half of that first game

They are winning games with herbert, or with the d. If they go undefeated rest of the way they deserve to be in that playoff

 

[s--k]

Pitt won 20-10 with a 362-193 TY edge. Pitt turned it over on 3 of their first 5 possessions, but GT could only convert that into 7 pts on a 51y run (also missed a 34y FG off other turnover). Pitt led just 17-7 HT despite having a 291-108 yard edge (14-5 FD edge and 5-of-8 3rd downs in the half – GT just 1-7). GT blk’d a punt on Pitt’s first poss of the 3rd Q and after not gaining a single yard on the “drive”, GT made a 30y FG…17-10. Pitt’s O was stagnant in the 2nd H. The biggest play of the game came with GT on a 10p 68y drive. GT appeared on the cusp of tying the game when GT QB fumbled as he was about to cross the goal line and Pitt ret’d it 79 yards to the GT21 in the final minute of the 3rd Q. From there Pitt actually lost 10 yards, but were able to make a 49y FG for what would end up being the final margin of 20-10. Pitt did miss a 44y FG in the 4th Q and ended the game at the GT16. GT finished the game just 2-of-13 on 3rd down.

 

[s--k]

Illinois led 10-0 scoring on two of their three opening possessions, but was tied with Rutgers 10-10 HT. Peters was sacked twice on back-to-back 2nd Q drives prompting punts. In the 2nd H, only 1 of the 7 possessions Rutgers had crossed midfield. ILL used some short fields for two offensive TDs and also had a fumble ret TD and a pick-six. ILL ended the game at the R01. ILL had just a 324-271 TY edge (5.9-4.4). Peters attempted just 11 passes, completing 6 for 120 yards (also had a 54y run). Langan attempted just 10 completing 5 for 86y. ILL D had 10 TFL to Rutger’s only 2.

Purdue’s defense held Nebraska to FGs twice on goal-to-go situations (one a sudden change after an INT deep in the PU RZ), making Nebraska just 3-for-5 getting TDs in the RZ. Purdue was 4-for-4 TDs in their RZ trips. Second string QB Plummer left with injury mid 4th Q, Aidan O’Connell went 6-for-6-62y on the game winning TD drive. Neb was just 1-of-7 3rd down in the 1st H, and finished 6-of-16, PU was 4-of-7 1st H, finishing 8-of-14. PU outgained them 449-375 (5.8-5.1).

84 of Maryland’s 233 yards came on their final 2 drives, the last of which got inside the Michigan 10, but with no urgency they ran the ball 3x gaining just 2, 3 and 3 yards before letting the clock expire. This game featured a KO ret TD by both teams. Each team missed a FG and on Michigan’s last real drive of the game had a 1st down at the Mary 23, but would settle for a 38y FG.

Indiana scored on 4 of their first 5 possessions, while Northwestern had some offense in the 1st H, but fumbled at the N47 at the end of a 22y run, kicked a FG from the I07 after a 15p 58y drive, fumbled at the N18, and punted from the 50. IU led 24-3 (14 pts off turnovers), in the 2nd H NW had 36 yards of O. IU ended the game at the N17.

 

[s--k]

ECU posted 638 yards on 87 plays to Cincy’s 462 yards on 63 plays. Yard per play the same at 7.3. ECU had a 35-19 FD edge. ECU was up 12 entering the 4th Q, but UC got within 5 then Bearcats got a 62y pick-six which gave UC a 43-40 lead (2pt good) with under 5min left. ECU drove to a FD at the C16, but had to settle for a 27y FG to tie at 43. Starting with 1:10 left, UC got a 30y Ridder run to get to the E35, they then got to the E15 making the game winning FG as time expired. ECU did score on all 7 RZ trips, but had to settle for FGs twice from inside the 5. UC rushed for season high 301 yards, with Warren running for a season high 141 yards and 3 TD. One ECU TD drive was aided by 50 UC penalties including two PI calls. Ahlers passed for a school record 535 yards (3rd most AAC history). WR Conley Johnson set school and AAC records with 283y on 12receptions.

 

[s--k]

Colorado State only outgained UNLV 428-387 but won 37-17. No turnovers. CSU ret’d the opening KO for TD and led 24-0 HT. UNLV gained only 51 yards on their first 4 possessions of the game then would be SOD at the C29 and they also got to the C02 on a 31y pass before HT as time expired. CSU kicked a pair of FGs on their first two 3rd Q possessions, both from the LV05 after long drives. CSU ended the game at the LV02. UNLV kicked a FG from the C18 and were SOD at the C35 (3rd empty possession in medium-deep CSU territory).

 

[s--k]

ULL did win 31-3, but it was just 10-3 HT. First 3 ULL poss were punt, punt, SOD T38. ULL scored 21 3rd Q pts and finished with a 479-264 TY edge. Texas St’s last 2 drives of the game were INT in the EZ on 1st down from the L07 and then ended the game at the UL18 on their final drive. 99 of their 264 yards came on those last 2 drives. ULL was 9-of-15 3rd down, TexSt just 3-of-12.

 

[gps_3]

If everything happens the way it's trending, this might be the year the 4 team playoff gets broken. We could be in a position where we have 5-7 "deserving" teams. I think the conference strength of the SEC and B1G is basically even, then Big12 and Pac 12 right behind them, then the ACC is clearly the weakest, but may have the best team overall. So if you have this:

ACC: 13-0 Clemson
SEC: 13-0 LSU/Alabama or 12-1 UGA, plus 11-1 LSU/Alabama
B1G: 13-0 Ohio St/Penn St/Minnesota, plus 11-1 OSU/PSU (don't think 1 loss Minny gets any consideration w/o a conf champ win)
Pac 12: 12-1 Oregon/Utah
Big12: 13-0 or 12-1 Baylor or 12-1 OU

I think the 5 conference champs all have a legit claim to inclusion in the CFP for the first time. Throw in that as many as 3 conferences are going to have really strong 1 loss teams, and this could be the hardest year yet to pick 4. If they want to keep it as is, then they really need at least one 2 loss conference champion, or Clemson to lose a game. Could get messy

 

[B.A.R.]

Tweet of the week lol

That is pretty good. After they were gifted the 4th quarter in South Carolina I'd think they would be grateful.

 

[B.A.R.]

If everything happens the way it's trending, this might be the year the 4 team playoff gets broken. We could be in a position where we have 5-7 "deserving" teams. I think the conference strength of the SEC and B1G is basically even, then Big12 and Pac 12 right behind them, then the ACC is clearly the weakest, but may have the best team overall. So if you have this:

ACC: 13-0 Clemson
SEC: 13-0 LSU/Alabama or 12-1 UGA, plus 11-1 LSU/Alabama
B1G: 13-0 Ohio St/Penn St/Minnesota, plus 11-1 OSU/PSU (don't think 1 loss Minny gets any consideration w/o a conf champ win)
Pac 12: 12-1 Oregon/Utah
Big12: 13-0 or 12-1 Baylor or 12-1 OU

I think the 5 conference champs all have a legit claim to inclusion in the CFP for the first time. Throw in that as many as 3 conferences are going to have really strong 1 loss teams, and this could be the hardest year yet to pick 4. If they want to keep it as is, then they really need at least one 2 loss conference champion, or Clemson to lose a game. Could get messy

Well put.

 

[s--k]

Notre Dame had a 448-249 TY edge running 91 plays to VT’s 64. VT punted from their EZ and ND got the ball at the V26 taking 2 plays to score 7-0. VT benefited from kick-catch interference penalty and started at the N45 taking 8 plays to tie the game (converted a 4th down along the way). 7-7 Each team ran 20 plays in the opening quarter with ND having a 132-45 yard edge. With ND leading 14-7 VT fumbled near midfield late 2nd Q and ND was about to make the game 21-7 when Armstrong was hit/fumbled and VT raced 98y to score a TD with just :09 left in the half to make it 14-14 instead of 21-7. The game was tied despite ND having a commanding 243-85 (5.4-2.5) TY edge for the half! VT kicked a FG to open the 3rd then ND threw a first down INT at the V02. VT did outgain them 84-55 in the 3rd. VT got a 50y pass to the N12 and made a 25y FG to lead 20-14 early 4th Q. ND would go on a 17p 82y drive, but missed a 35y FG mid 4th Q. VT was able to kill almost 4min before punting the ball to the N13. ND quickly faced 4th-and3, but converted and later faced 4th-and-10 but again converted to the V07. Book took it in from 7 yards out with just :23 left for the 21-20 win. In the 4th Q ND outgained them 149-71 and for the game had 200 more yards. 25-12 FD. Irish just 3-of-6 in the RZ.

 

[s--k]

Oklahoma State would have leads of 10-0 and 17-3, but TCU managed to tie 17-17 HT. 92 and 62 yard Hubbard runs pushed the lead to 31-17. TCU cut it to 7, OSU extended to 10 before TCU kicked a 40y FG with :22 left and failed to recover the onside kick. OSU was just 3-of-12 on 3rd down a week after being just 2-of-12 on 3rd down at ISU. TCU was 7-of-17 (and 1-for-1 4th down). OSU did have 5 sacks with 8 QBH. OKSt only outgained them 459-450 but did have a big 8.2-5.5 ypp advantage. TCU lost 4 TOs to OkSt’s 1. TCU threw INT from the O46 to the O04, fumbled at the O18 and threw INT at their own 10 (OSU missed FG), and threw a deep INT from their own 22 to the O32.

 

[s--k]

South Carolina had a 440-189 (5.5-3.8) TY edge but didn’t get ahead of the spread until late 4th Q in their 24-7 win. Vandy scored on their opening possession, QB Neal was knocked out of the game on the scoring play of that drive and Vandy would never threaten to score the rest of the game. Vandy had 5 FDs on their opening scoring drive, but then just 7 more the entire game thereafter. SC was hit with 11 penalties for 94y while Vandy was called for just 2. SC fumbled at the V09, were SOD at the V22 and kicked a FG from the V04 before they finally pulled away with a 25y TD pass with about 6min left in the game.

 

[s--k]

BYU did outgain Utah State 639-521 (8.5-6.4), yet won 42-14. Utah St was actually outgaining them 336-312 at HT but trailed by 7. Utah St fumbled at the B26, threw INT at their own 16 (led to BYU TD), threw INT at the B24, SOD at the B01 and then after recovering a muffed punt, fumbled the ball back on a sack to BYU 2 plays later. Utah ST’s final drive ended in an INT at the B08 (nearly ret’d for a TD with seconds left in the game). Utah St scored on just 1 of 3 RZ trips and turned it over twice from just outside the RZ. Not counting the last time BYU was in the RZ off that end of game INT, BYU scored TDs on 6 of 8 RZ trips (BYU did fumble and throw INT on their 2 wasted RZ trips). Utah St also had a TD called back by penalty.

 

[B.A.R.]

Awesome stuff @s--k

 

[s--k]

San Jose scored on long TD drives to start the game and jumped out 14-0. Boise got a 66y punt return TD to keep them in it. It was 24-17 HT SJ lead with Spartans owning the 1st H yardage 318 on 46 plays to 166 on 27 plays.. SJ extended it to a 10 pt lead before Boise scored TDs on back-to-back drives to take a 31-27 lead. But SJ came back to make it 34-31 late 3rd Q. Boise again scored on back-to-back drives this time going up by 11. SJ cut it to 45-42 late 4th Q, but after an onside kick, Boise added another TD on with just 1:35 left. All told, Boise scored TDs on 5 straight possessions in the 2nd H. Boise ran for a season high 253 yards without starting RB Robert Mahone (injury). San Jose outgained them 497-466 (6.5-6.9). San Jose D did have more TFLs (6) and sacks (4) than Boise (4 and 1). Boise was credited with 7 QBH.

 

[s--k]

Hawaii led 24-14 HT with a 309 to 197 yardage edge, but Fresno scored 24 unanswered in the 2nd H. UH scored 2 TDs in the final 3minutes (recovered onside kick) behind backup QB Chevan Cordeiro (McDonald benched mid-4th Q, Rolo said postgame “ball was coming out of his hand a little funky”). When UH tied it at 38, they left 1:08 on the clock and Fresno swiftly moved down field for the 37y time expring FG. UH outgained them 555-514 (6.8-7.6). UH was called for 13 penalties – 135y! Fresno 5-45y. Both teams were strong on 3rd down, combining for 16 of 29. But UH was 0-for-3 4th down. UH was SOD at their own 30 (Fresno missed FG), in the 2nd H SOD F26 and F03. Marcus Mariota’s foundation paid for 1200 kids to attend the game.

 

[s--k]

Memphis WR Antonio Gibson set a Memphis all-purpose yardage record with 386y (6rec-130y-TD, 97y KOret TD, 78y TD run). Memphis was SOD at the S03 on their opening drive. With all the big scoring plays, Memphis was only in the RZ 4x and managed just 1 TD and 2 FGs on those trips (plus the SOD). SMU was 4 of 5 TDs on their RZ trips (other a FG). Both teams converted about 50% of their 3rd downs and combined to go 3 of 4 on 4th down. Both teams had 7.0 / 7.1 ypp. And both teams were called for double digit penalties and 100+ yards (SMU 11-108, Mem 16-134).

Marshall only had four 1st H possessions: missed 28y FG, made 21y FG and two TDs. Rice only had three 1st H possessions which were a TD sandwiched around two punts. 17-7 HT. Rice missed a 37y FG to open the 3rd then would not venture into Marshall territory again until their final drive of the game that was SOD at the M25. Marshall made a FG then only gained 22 yards on their final 4 drives. Isiah Green was 12-of-13 passing in the 1st H for 229 yards. Rice gave true Fr QB JaVoni Johnson his first start going 10-17-97-1-0 with 65y rushing (injured 4th Q).