Weekly Thread 1.12 to 1.18

ol dirk is gettin down tonight.. as for JR smith, must have been smoking too much crack before the game.
 
brewer said:
thank yous go out to atlanta for playing dead and not fouling down 5 when Nash gets the board with :06 left
Click to expand...

Figures ! The 1 play I had cant get sneak in (over 213.5) . Push the 1st H with Suns after a huge 1st Quarter then lean ATL and over but it went off the board as I was thinking .....:36_11_6:
 
i dont like the cards matchup vs eagles--

cards are happy to be here, and eagles are on a mission for sure--

eagles give the cards trouble, they own these types of teams IMO
 
I like Ravens with pts, ravens ml, over in zona, and eagles in that order. Still just Tuesday, however.
 
The Magic sold their souls . I just hope when they go cold I still have the balls to fade the shit out of them ....
 
sacto can only hope to match...they cant make stops

true dat Mike

i wanna make sure im on that game when they go ice cold
 
if gundy puts his starters out there in 4th, he deserves the bad karma down the road

esp with LA on horizon...he should know better
 
ret take your gut feelings they are usually right my friend--

gundy doesent pull guys that much, he wants to crush teams--

orlando has no respect, they need the respect to blowout teams
 
Ret you remember the game vs New orleans--

Orlando up by like 25 and Vangundy is calling timeouts in 4th qtr so pissed that orlando was playing sloppy and just playing the game out--

Oh my god jameer nelson is coming back lol--

this coach is crazy--

Ret team totals over on orlando is money- vs SPurs it was only 44 in 2nd half and todays was 49 second half--

they already have 45 points midway through 4th qtr
 
The Magic deserve a sever beatdown, I really hope Kobe and the Lakers do it. Hopefully this game brings some value on a Laker bet.
 
i tell yeah mike

these types of games come along and really aggravate me

i liked sacto cause i thought it was a nice soft spot to fade orlando with whats ahead

Orl continues to shoot lights out 1H, go up big and instead of passin and just chalk up a loss, i ignore the stats cause my stubborness tells me that this sick 3 ball run they r on cant continue so i piss into the wind and take more on sacto 2H and lose more

i had a + nite so nothing big lost but its the fact that my stubborness cost me more on this game then it should have


live and learn i guess....

ok done venting
 
I mean they were jacking up three after three when they were up by over 25 pts and less than a minute left. I know the Lakers hate the Kings, but like I said, this classless team needs a lesson. If they keep shooting 3's this run will end soon enough. I just hope the Lakers take them to the woodshed on Friday night
 
I agree Ret, I should have not bet the Kings 2nd half, tonight the Magic showed me what kind of team they are. Lesson learned
 
i learned this lesson back when these assholes played the hawks on the home and home...i had a sizable wager for the game and rolled the same amount on hawks 2nd half. i had the adjusted spread of atl +33.5...and guess what? these fucking magic won by 34. bitches...
 
Its legal to bet both sides. Some people actually enjoy betting on teams that win and cover a lot.
 
Retburj13 said:
i tell yeah mike

these types of games come along and really aggravate me

i liked sacto cause i thought it was a nice soft spot to fade orlando with whats ahead

Orl continues to shoot lights out 1H, go up big and instead of passin and just chalk up a loss, i ignore the stats cause my stubborness tells me that this sick 3 ball run they r on cant continue so i piss into the wind and take more on sacto 2H and lose more

i had a + nite so nothing big lost but its the fact that my stubborness cost me more on this game then it should have


live and learn i guess....

ok done venting
Click to expand...

Very frustrating game Ret . When they were still knocking down 3s to start the fourth I just went to sleep to be honest . I tend to agree on one hand I feel stubborn but the other hand I take every 1st H with a grain of salt . I had my concern about the 1st Half something just didnt look right and ORL away is extremely good in teh 1st Quarter at this point it should be an automatic bet for me because they start out HOT seemingly every game (think they win the 1st Q by more then 3 pts away on avg ) . Truth is it wasnt just this game its the past few games (which I had rolling around in my head) that ORL is suddenly lights out from 3pt range and naturally hot streaks are contagious but this is so flawed to me . Its not even like its just a couple guys the 1st Half had 7 different guys hit 3's ...SEVEN. Its not like ORL is that deep to begin with . They finished with 9 guys hitting threes and only Battie attempted one and missed. So they had ten guys attempting them and only 1 missed who happens to be 6'10.

23-37 62.2% and 37 of 81 FG attempts were 3s about 45.6%
Starting FIve went with 5-5 , 1-1 ,3-5 , 3-5 = 12/16
Bench went 4-7 JJ Reddick, 4-6 , 1-4 , 0-1 , 1-2 ,1-1 = 11/21 (8/13 from the top 2 reserves)

Yeah , we can go on and on again but how SAC played no defense in the 1st Half and really didnt make any 2nd H adjustments in that sense. How Kevin Martin said it has to change and they were embarrassed . It wasnt just this game for ORL it was the last few . Orl has always taken their fair share of threes and been a solid long distance team so its not that suprising . Until you see the sheer numbers . this isnt a team taking mid teens levels from three it taking 29 a game and doing this . To further illustrate its taking 36% of their shots now from 3 ...and since threes are worth 1.5 x a reg shot then at 61% they are essentially shooting 92% on that 36% shot attempts ...or if one guy took 30 jumpers he would be hitting 27.5 of those to equal that production.

SAS pretty good defensive team who has had some lapses of late . 63.6% (22 of 74 FG attempts were 3s about 29.8%)
Starters: 1-1 , 3-6 , 2-4 , 2-3 = 8/14
Bench : 4-6 JJ Reddick , 1-1 , 1-1 = 6/8

ATL : 57.1 % (28 of 83 FG attempts were 3s or 33.7%)
Starters : 2-2 , 1-1 , 2-5 , 5-5 = 10/13
Bench : 0-2 , 4-5 JJ Reddick , 0-1 Battie ,1-2 , 0-2 , 1-3 Cook = 6/15

L3 games : 53 for 87 from 3 pt land 61%
Starters : 30 / 43 (about 70%!! 69.8 to be exact)
Bench : 23/44

ORL after 39 games now including these past 3 outbursts is now 2nd in the NBA in 3PT % at 40.1 behind SAS . They now are 2nd to the NYK in attempts at 26 per (NYK avgs 29.2) which I guess was always the case because 29avg in 3 games at this point shouldt skew the stats much and they are 7-8 teams who take slightly more then 21 pre game to 20 per game.

It works out to 26.0 attempts per game or 1014 in 39 games . Which after 36 games not counting these last three they were 927 attempts . Just to show how insane this run is for the season in those 26 attempts for all 39 games they avg 10.4 makes for that 40.1 %(406/1014) . Now to hit 40.1 the inflated number including the outburst the past 3 games in 87 attempts would have needed to hit 35 to be at 40.22 % . Basically they hit 18 more TREY's then that already inflated 40.1 % which is 54 points or 18 pts a game . Anyway before this 3 game spurt they were 353 /927 roughly or 38% almost exactly . Its not much of a difference but if they hit 38% their season avg heading into this streak they would have knocked down 33/87 three's which is 38% , 35 / 87 was 40% but they hit 53/87 61% and actually in 3 games with 36 games in the books knocked their pct from 38 to 40.1 % more then 2 full points . Which at 38% they are tied for 8th with LAL and have two teams behind them at 37.9 %. So they are essentially a top 10 team from three but just as close to middle of the pack as they are top 3 before these past 3 games .......

JJ Reddick has gone 4/5 , 4/6 and 4/7 ....he was 14/46 entering Jan which he has gone 2/3 , 2/3 , 1/2 before this streak or 17 /26 ..

Anyway my point is I cant expect any team to hold up like that for 3 full games , being they were up 19 at half considering I'll take SAC bench 5 of nearly every teams bench obased on ability to score then I thought for sure they would coast . In some ways I feel real good about the SAC 2nd H play because they fought . Kevin Martin hits a quick 3 but Nelson answers , then Martin hits a bucket and converts the FT but Nelson hits another three ...same deal after the 3rd Quarter ..Bogans hits a three to put them up 8 for the Quarter and Kings rally to get 5 to make it a 3 pt defecit for the 3rd Quarter and Garcia misses a 3 from the corner , 1st shot of the 4th Q Lewis hits a 3 ....hitting 3's vs a team trying to rally is a backbreaker and they did it everytime even early when SAC tied it in the 1st Quarter after being down boom Jamar Nelson trey ...

SAC had the fight in them and the offensive ability but ORL simply could not miss ....

I am most pissed because fading ORL has crushed my would be profits on both SUNDAY AND TUESDAY ..apprx 700 then 900 yesterday ...pretty huge sums when I look at that days results and goes back to the 1 game really killing me everyday despite doing well in general ...

I want to fade the hell of ORL when they go to LAL but it will be LAL 3rd in 4 and ORL will have 2 days rest and is only 5-0-1 ATS on 2 days and something like 10-1-1 on anything but 1 day rest ....

Safe to say I hate the MAGIC right now..:shake:




 
linewatcher said:
i learned this lesson back when these assholes played the hawks on the home and home...i had a sizable wager for the game and rolled the same amount on hawks 2nd half. i had the adjusted spread of atl +33.5...and guess what? these fucking magic won by 34. bitches...
Click to expand...

Think its a different scenario though . ATL is jsut ICE COLD at the moment and it started with the 2n H collapse @ NJN . I played the same as you in that ATL game but didnt really bite at halftime and faded ATL hard next time out . Not that SAC is good but they have played well at ARCO as a pup and looked solid the past 2 games vs Miami and Dallas which I wouldnt view as much different then ORL . I know what you mean about lthem letting up and such but ATL is in tailspin but maybe the Suns game helps them get out of it ...:shake:

Just my take......
 
New day , Fresh Start . I hope no one had a really bad day but think betman did and I hate to see or hear that . For me it was just that 1 brutal game which essentially took me from +500 to -500..nature of the beast..

:cheers:GL
 
Wed 1.14

Do not think I will be around to 11 tonight . Got caught rushing a bit to finish up so proceed with caution and a grain of salt ! GL all

Plays :
Teaser: Bucks -2 and SA +1 (200)

1st Quarter Raptors -1.5 (40)
2nd Quarter Bulls + 1 (40)
1st Half Bulls +2 +100 (80)
Bulls Full Game +5 -120 (200)
TT Over 97.5 Bulls (40)

1st Quarter Pacers -0.5 (80)
1st Half Pacers -0.5 (40)
3rd Quarter Pistons +0.5 (40)
4th Quarter Pistons PK (80)
Pistons Full Game +3 -120 (40)

1st Half Sixers +1 (80)
Sixers Full game +2.5 -120 (120)

Wizards full game +5 -120 (200)
1st Quarter Wizards +1.5 -115 (80)

Bucks -5.5 -120 (280)
1st Half Bucks -3 (80)
3rd Quarter Bucks -1.5 (80)
4th Quarter Bucks -1 (80)

OKC +6 -115 (120)

1st Quarter Mavs +1-105 (80)
4th Quarter NOH -1 (160)

Spurs ML -140 (120) -2 -120 (160)
Over 199 (80)
TT Over 101 SAS (80)

Under 227 GSW (160)
1st Quarter Kings +1.5 (80)
Kings +6 -120 (120)
1st Half Under 114 (80)
4th Quarter Under 55 (80)

1st Half LAC +2 (80)
2nd Q LAC +1 (80)
4th Q LAC +1 (80)
LAC +4.5 -120 (160)
Under 191 (80)

Over 189 NJN (80)
4th Quarter Nets +2.5 (80)
:cheers:








 
Recap:

Plays :
Teaser: Bucks -2 and SA +1 (200) -240
-240

1st Quarter Raptors -1.5 (40) -44
2nd Quarter Bulls + 1 (40) -44
1st Half Bulls +2 +100 (80) +80
Bulls Full Game +5 -120 (200) +200
TT Over 97.5 Bulls (40) +40
+232

1st Quarter Pacers -0.5 (80) +80
1st Half Pacers -0.5 (40) +40
3rd Quarter Pistons +0.5 (40) +40
4th Quarter Pistons PK (80) PUSH
Pistons Full Game +3 -120 (40) -48 (lost in OT by 4 )
+112

1st Half Sixers +1 (80) +80
Sixers Full game +2.5 -120 (120) +120
+200

Wizards full game +5 -120 (200) -240 (lost by 6 !)
1st Quarter Wizards +1.5 -115 (80) -92
-332

Bucks -5.5 -120 (280) -336
1st Half Bucks -3 (80) -88
3rd Quarter Bucks -1.5 (80) -88
4th Quarter Bucks -1 (80) +80
-432

OKC +6 -115 (120) +120
+120

1st Quarter Mavs +1-105 (80) +80
4th Quarter NOH -1 (160) +160
+240

Spurs ML -140 (120) -2 -120 (160) +120 /-192 net -72 (FUCK ME SAS win by 1 !)
Over 199 (80) +80
TT Over 101 SAS (80) +80
+88

Under 227 GSW (160)-172
1st Quarter Kings +1.5 (80) +80
Kings +6 -120 (120) +120
1st Half Under 114 (80) +80
4th Quarter Under 55 (80) +80
+188

1st Half LAC +2 (80) -88
2nd Q LAC +1 (80) -88
4th Q LAC +1 (80) -88
LAC +4.5 -120 (160) -192
Under 191 (80) +80
-376

Over 189 NJN (80) +80
4th Quarter Nets +2.5 (80) -88
-8


2nd Half :
Hedge : Over 112 GSW (60) +60
+60

GL

:cheers:

Net -148 (-240 teaser / other +92 )
 
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damn i hate danny granger. mofo ruined what shoulda been another golden night from looks of it :hang:
 
brewer said:
damn i hate danny granger. mofo ruined what shoulda been another golden night from looks of it :hang:
Click to expand...

Playing catch up but yeah he killed my 4th Quarter play (PUSHED) and small DET play but fuck me I was going to play SAS on the ML only and dont so of course it has to fuck me . Wash loses by 6 and of course would have covered the 1st Hal line . The Bucks , oh the Bucks !!! I understand Miami had a little revenge but Miami besides be soft in B2Bs this season ONLY 2 wins vs NJN they were like 0-6 or 0-7 SU playing 3rd gam ein 4 nites UNTIL today of course...SAS game was a real fucker though big turn of events for me:cheers:
 
Thanks for concern Sports ! It's ok but i hate loosing like this. Before the Orlando game yesterday, i had 5 bets lost by 1 point and then when taking Sac 2nd half big i knew somehow it had very slight chances to hit but i still did it. Plus yesterday i had Denver and Pho ats both taken early bc they seemed the right side and i anticipated the line would rise. I decided on both not to hedge although they didn't seem very good and both blew big leads..
Today already on Sa -2 medium plus bet, and small bet on det over 102 1st half ... so it isn't much better. Still... regarding all this and Orlando ... what goes around comes around....things will turn

Was on Milwaukee too and Milw 1st q , Miami started with 8-8 3 pointers...:shake:
 
Bulls seem to play them tough at home winning 3 of the last 5 meetings and 1 was a loss by 4 in OT . They lost earlier this season (the other loss) by 9 and were minus Gooden and Hinrich and were outscored by 12 in the 4th quarter . Just think CHI will roll in with some momentum after the win @ Toronto....8 or 9 pts is pretty insane IMO..CLE was -2 in the 1st meeting with Z and minus Gooden and Hinrich ..

Just rolling the dice ...
 
betman4ever said:
Thanks for concern Sports ! It's ok but i hate loosing like this. Before the Orlando game yesterday, i had 5 bets lost by 1 point and then when taking Sac 2nd half big i knew somehow it had very slight chances to hit but i still did it. Plus yesterday i had Denver and Pho ats both taken early bc they seemed the right side and i anticipated the line would rise. I decided on both not to hedge although they didn't seem very good and both blew big leads..
Today already on Sa -2 medium plus bet, and small bet on det over 102 1st half ... so it isn't much better. Still... regarding all this and Orlando ... what goes around comes around....things will turn

Was on Milwaukee too and Milw 1st q , Miami started with 8-8 3 pointers...:shake:
Click to expand...

Seems like way to many games falling within a point lately ...and Cook is the one guy not named Wade I always check to see how he played the previous game . :cheers:
 
Glad the Kings won but when it went to OT I just turned off went to sleep . Disgusted I had the total nailed and it lost because of OT when its the Kings and Warriors . Frustrating few days for sure . Feel like I am spot on but getting hurt on 1 game and/or missing the close ones ..:cheers:
 
Thursday 1.15 Plays :

Bulls +9 -120 (200)
1st Half Bulls +4.5 (280)



Thoughts :
@NJN thinking about playing the Nets , listening to the postgame on the radio last night , the announcers mentioned NJ tends to bounce back well after these ugly blowout losses but want to research it some . Dont think Portland is playing that well as I mentioned I would befading them after the GSW game . Outlaw was magnificent and saved them on Monday but they lost by 21 yesterday and that was including the fact they won the 3rd QUARTER by 12 pts --Port loves the 3rd Quarter more at home but that was kinda of funny to see yesterday..

@Bulls think its just way to many points . The Bulls are finally getting healthy and are not the Memphis Grizzlies . Bulls had won 3 of 4 before the meeting this season at HOME with the lone loss being by 4 in OT . This year as 2 pt dogs they lost by 9 due to being outscored by 12 in the 4th Quarter but were minus Gooden and Hinrich and Cavs had Zydrunas. I could see -5 or -5.5 here but 8.5 / 9 was simply to many IMO .....Hopefully Bulls have some momentum after yesterday

@ Denver ...no idea yet
 
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Why did they lose by 11 to OKC with those players. Why did they lose by 14 to Portland and WHEN was the last time you played Cleveland as a favorite. I think the Bulls after a ats win this season are 3-11 ats. You are saying its way too many points but if you are always betting against a team and never on them the act loses credibility. When they covered as a home dog against the Suns, Dallas and Utah they were coming off losses. When they failed to cover against Cleveland, and Orlando they were coming off wins. Only once, the game vs Portland were they coming off a loss and failed at home so thinking that the win vs Toronto is favorableable momentum seems doubtful.
If I sound harsh I am truely sorry but I am very upset with myself over the Clippers last night. The truth is in that game while I could make many reasonable arguments for the Clippers the fact is their coach is a joke and so they are not prepared to play games properly now and I posted for them.
 
tuck321 said:
Why did they lose by 11 to OKC with those players. Why did they lose by 14 to Portland and WHEN was the last time you played Cleveland as a favorite. I think the Bulls after a ats win this season are 3-11 ats. You are saying its way too many points but if you are always betting against a team and never on them the act loses credibility. When they covered as a home dog against the Suns, Dallas and Utah they were coming off losses. When they failed to cover against Cleveland, and Orlando they were coming off wins. Only once, the game vs Portland were they coming off a loss and failed at home so thinking that the win vs Toronto is favorableable momentum seems doubtful.
If I sound harsh I am truely sorry but I am very upset with myself over the Clippers last night. The truth is in that game while I could make many reasonable arguments for the Clippers the fact is their coach is a joke and so they are not prepared to play games properly now and I posted for them.
Click to expand...

No prob Tuck . In regards to LAC I feel like an idiot for those plays . The simple fact was ATL needed a win and what better type team then a bottomfeeder. Yeah , I blew that one big time and its why I didnt make a 2nd H play on it.

As for the Bulls game :
OKC they lost because they didnt put OKC away they actually were up 11 or 12 I believe early 4th Quarter and maybe B2B game they just ran out of steam once they got to OT and OKC had all the momentum , Portland game was Hinrich's 1st back and Deng's also I believe only reason I feel they lost is because Travis Outlaw had his best game of the season maybe career 9/14 , 4/5 arc , 11/13 FT for 33 pts while ALrdidge and Roy combined for 19 points on 6/21 (also Bulls were up 7 after 1Q ), now they go to Tor and beat an equal team so hoping they are straightening themselves out . Deng is starting again and Hinrich played 30 minutes off the bench and Larry Hughes DNP ..they also won the 4th Quarter which has been troublesome for them. I think once CHI had a few days to get straight they played a little better last 5 games and continue to improve as they got healthier ...

That game @ Denver was the Cavs peak IMO and since then are just 2-2 SU away , 1-3 ATS and 0-4 ATS at the half . Wallace has the FLU , Wright who played last game alos reportedly had it and Zydrunas is out .....

Probably be very interested in the 1st Q and 1st H plays but also CLE 4th Quarter ...:cheers:
 
You are saying its way too many points but if you are always betting against a team and never on them the act loses credibility

If you for some reason think I am always fading CLE not sure what gives you that idea . Last 9 games for CLE ..

@ Memphis play Memphis 1st H and game but more on the 1st Half
vs Boston -know I pounded Cavs in that one
vs Charlotte-almost certain I played Cavs
@Wash faded them
vs Bulls- believe I incorrectly faded them
@Miami played on them incorrectly
vs Miami think NO PLAY
vs Wash on XMas day pounded the Wiz
vs Houston faded them...

Cavs are 5-4 ATS in the past 9 as well ...:cheers:




 
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