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Week of October 2nd Plays and Analysis Thread

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
32-22-2 +15.30 units


Well, last week certainly was interesting. For the record, I added a bit on Michigan with local at a flat 7. That was negated by adding tOSU which got freakin backdoored. That Louisville game was something. I watched most of it but reading the box after its simply amazing. As Kyle said in his thrad and other have too, the QB injuries both ways really hurt. Woulda love to have Lorenzen not get hurt. Would of been huge. Added Indiana late and had a chance for a backdoor at end but they fumbled going in. Also had a 97 yard TD called back with a hold in EZ which resulted in safety. It prolly woulda ended up in a sack anyways, so no big whoop. Was off on Purdue. Same ole Purdue defense. I really thought they could do more on offense though. Really feel great with how I capped and played Va Tech, Alabama, South Florida and Oklahoma State. Those games were barely within question. Gotta love those types. Auburn staretd out good but its always tough laying in the SEC conference play. I was suprised UT scored double digits though. I will talk about the Michigan game more later in thread from last week.

I was this close to playing Ole Miss against Florida. Had a 22 staring me in the eye. Not sure why I didn't. Oh well, can feel good I woulda had the right side. Other than that, not much else I feel I missed.

Only two plays so far this week. Cards will start to shorten up significantly as we head into the always tougher October stretch.

Illinois ML +125 4 units
Utah -11.5 -110 3 units
Iowa +7.5 -110 3 units
Iowa ML +215 1/2 unit
Ole Miss -2.5 -110
Oklahoma State -25.5 -110
Texas -12.5 -110 2 units
Eastern Michigan +21 -110 2 units
Florida -25.5 -110

This will finally be Illinois time to get Michigan. You can go back to earlier this decade with the A-train fumble that wasn't game in Champaign and back to last year where many were all over Illinois and Blue rolled them. Hunt and myself said last year, Illinois will lose because of the passing game of Michigan. Henne, even with that shoulder was amazing and Illnois just couldn't stop them at all. Thats their weakness. Well, as we said going into the Notre Dame game this year, Michigan could win but their passing game isn't good enough. Threet did look better in that game but it wasn't enough. They are too sloppy. The return game is horrid. I mean embarrassing. I give this team credit though. They fight and play hard. barwis has this club conditioned and they have been the more conditioned team in every 2nd half this year. This will help as the team growxs and gets better....

but..

They don't have it right now. The pass defense is very average. They are a good defense against standard sets. This week they face a speedy QB and a dangerous receiver in Benn. I think Illinois will have success all day through the air. Michigan will move the ball better but mistakes will catch up as they have all year.

Kinda hurrying this write-up as I have to dfly out pretty quick. Any more questions...leave em.

As for Utah. What a GREAT situational spot. Sets up absolutely perfect. More to come before kick tomorrow night.
 
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Few quick things.

I know I didn't get the best number on Utah. Thats fine, I think this number came out about 6 points low in all honesty. Just some overreaction from last week.

Michigan is once again making changes on offensive line. Absolutely no continuity. That doesn't help in this type of system. Gotta find your 5 and let them gel. Not mad at the staff. The OL is very green and they are just trying to find the best fit.
 
agree with utah...on them as well and my favorite play this week...

after reading that i'm glad i didn't take the bait on your boys even though i said to myself years ago if i can get less than a fg at the big house it was an auto-bet...
 
Btw,

Any PM's I got during our site issues I haven't returned yet I will get too. Their was a lot of duplicates and stuff not getting back to people from what I saw/heard. So, wasn't ignoring you, etc.

NFL and CFB contests should be up later tonight. TWITA needs to tweak one thing and I'll load them up after I get back.
 
like both of those plays as well BAR.

I feel a bit priced out of utah but as you mentiont he spot is about as good as it gets... and i know you love situational handicapping.

keep it rolling ...
 
Thanks fellas...appreciated

VK...I know number catching is huge..I had to cap game first and lost a bit but valued it higher...will still take..

It woulda been a max bet under 9
 
good add w/ utah. like u said...situational.

fwiw, if interested, don't let the # keep u off USF either. Pitt is nothing to write home about. rememebr last week...in their 1st road game of the year, they were down (yes, down) after 3 quarters at syracuse (yes, syracuse). nough said...
 
good add w/ utah. like u said...situational.

fwiw, if interested, don't let the # keep u off USF either. Pitt is nothing to write home about. rememebr last week...in their 1st road game of the year, they were down (yes, down) after 3 quarters at syracuse (yes, syracuse). nough said...

Yanks...

I totally know and said in another thread..

Just wanna look at a littlev more..prolly will be on the card
icon14.gif
 
Any thoughts on OSU/Badgers?

Leaning hard on Wisky at home...........:cheers:

Well, OSU opened 3 per LVSC and is down to 1 when i just looked. Seems like the correct movement for a short road fav in a night game in Madison.

You have a true frosh in his first road start in one of the more hostile road enviroments in the league at night. And Fondy will tell you, that is one drunk ass crowd for a night game. They start 12 hours earlier. It's going to be nuts there.

But, what hangover do the badgers have from last week? Thats a demoralizing loss to say the least. With tOSU's early struggles Wisky mighta been thinking they could run the board perhaps and sneak in to a BCS bowl at worst. Now, they are a one loss team that is facing the brutal part of their schedule.

I would still lean Wisky, but ever so slightly.
 
Git em champ..I personally think Threet has gotten better, but he is no Henne. I agree completely on the defense. The D is good against standard sets like MSU, Wisky etc. How can you trust the return game now either? Very good points you make. Plus, If UM loses last week I think you are looking at Illinois being favored by at least 3..

People are talking a lot about the drives last week in the fourth quarter...well, one of those drives would have been done on their own 20 yard line if a roughing the passer penalty had not been called. It kept the drive alive on 3rd and 15.

UM at home seems to get a lot of breaks this year, and play very disciplined as far as penalties go. Things keeping me off the game is Illinois D, and UM momentum. But I do remember telling you a few weeks ago I thouhgt illini would wax UM. The come from behind win this past weekend put a wrench in my thought process though....
 
You know me...and you..its gonna kill to lose this game if we do...

Bottom line, I cannot let heart interfere with money.

Threet has improved and will. This Illini defense isn't good so he will have his moments.

Michigan return game, the fumbleitis and playing a QB like this are what will lead to a loss.

I also really want to see them settle on a set OL. As I said earlier, they are chaninging up again. There is no continuity.
 
Your right bro..I gotta keep telling myself they are only going to win maybe 6 games this year...My heart is definitely feeling Maize and Blue this week after last week's come from behind win...you got your shit together for this week.
 
I wanted to think this would be a momentum builder...and it could be...I just don;t see it. Tell you this much, and I may have already said this to yas...if they win this week and start gelling last week will be the the game that officially started the RR era and be the most important of his tenure here.

Getting booed outta the Big House at half is just not known to happen.
 
GL BAR totally agree with Illy this week. Being a Buckeye I'm not really a big fan of the maize and blue, but like you said money is money. When I see a place to take em I do. But this is a spot to play the other way and I like Juice and his fightin Illinis to get it done this week.
 
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hey BAR, I took utah at -10 -130 with my book already and hes jumped his line to -11.5 now -110. I am pretty confident on the play on them tonight as I think they should win by 2 td. Just took it to 10 for some insurance. I'm hoping for a letdown spot for Oregon St tonight. Just want to know your opinion on that play. I see you already like Utah. To me, this is also a great spot for Utah and a bad spot for the Beavers, just a huge letdown spot imo. Just wanted to get some more reasonings from ya.

Thanks and good luck.
 
I agree with the 2 TD's thing at minimum brah.

This is a classic situational spot. We have a time where Oregon State is off a huge win. Prolly biggest in school history considering the spread and comparing the two teams. Think this way, Michigan was a 24 at home and USC a 41 at home in their big upset losses last year. USC would be in low 30's at home so this is pretty huge. You know the guys were prolly partying all over campus the entire weekend and then some.

I think the last few weeks have affected this line man. Obviously hyou have the OSU win over USC last week. Thats big. But look at Utah. They gave up a couple garbage touchdowns late and it looks like a non-impressive win against Weber State. The week before they had a bit of a fight with Air Force. To me though, this is a very good team. They get a spotlight game on a weeknight at home. The crowd will be jazzed.

Oregon States season was made last week. Have they improved since start of year? Yes. Are they as good as they looked last week? Abnsolutely not. Remember Sheed's old philosophy.."Even the sun shines on a dogs ass"

Go Utes.:cheers:
 
Exactly. Strength of schedule...

Impressive showing on a National TV game helps with the pollsters as well. The Hawaii's, Boise St's etc need big showings when a captive audience is watching.
 
ok, now i'm done harrassing you about the game. i got 3 units on it, which is a good size play for me. just want to be confident about it.

thanks and good luck tonight
 
buddy, on Illy with you and that makes me happy BUT, tell Dick Rod to stop recruiting Quentin Washington, hes a gamecock =)
 
BOL on these next ones BAR...i had utah too, i thought they would come out a little stronger defensively but oh well.
 
Iowa will present a lot of defensive difficulties to MSU.. Can they score enough.. Think so:smiley_acbe:

GL bro
 
Final card is up.

Added Iowa ML, emu, tejas, okie lite and ole piss.

Will discuss along with the added Iowa ats from other day in a bit.
 
Few quick things. I will be up early and be back on as well. Lack of sleep last two nights is killing me. But some quick thoughts...

Iowa defense is going to dictate this game. Ringer is a helluva a back and I predicted this kinda year for him but its going to be a struggle for him. I see an effort similar to the cal game for him at best. We saw Iowa shut down ole boy from Pitt a few weeks ago. He is another talented runner. Hoyer then will be pressured to get the team downfield. I think he may make a few mistakes. Iowa will do enough on offense to keep this very close and may win it in the 4th qtr(hence the ML). Yes it is revenge for Sparty after last years collapse but I still like this game.

Texas has been a pleasant suprise. The defense is really coming together quicker than I think all you Horns guys woulda thought. My thing with Colorao is they haven't impressed me like I thought they would. They let EWU almost win(although a very good small school) and I didn't like their adjustments against WVU. It was a lucky win for us their. I know its a lot of points on road in conference play but I think this is like a 44-24 Horns win.

EMU-read Kyles early thoughts, did some own research and basically concluded from the boxes same stuff he did from last week. It gives us some line value. See his thread on page two for that analysis.

Scary's defense is pretty mean. Thats what held me off at first. What got me back on late though is Smelley is starting. I am sure they will just keep QB shuffling. Killing continuity in all honesty. Ole Miss is better than their record. Couple of tough losses. Should be undefeated. The letdown aspect kept it as a one unit play.
 
Hate to see you on the other side BAR, haven't looked heavily into the game yet...but I am definitely leaning with Mich St.
 
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