Week 9 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Every year about this time I start to get slightly depressed because I have to write "Week 9" or at least come to the realization that the college football season is more than half over. It seems like just yesterday we were talking about week 1, and here we are. More importantly, here I am, still a game under break even at 58-59. Last week was 7-6, decent, I guess, but it included a few misguided plays, as usual.

Sorry I haven't been around the past couple of weeks to contribute to other threads, but the travel has been pretty extensive. On to the week.

Penn State +15 WIN A potential heinous beat turned into a lucky cover
Notre Dame +2 WIN
UCONN +8 WIN
Cincinnati +2 LOSS Nice work on that game winning drive Ben Bryant. Bravo.
Rutgers +14 LOSS
Northwestern +11 LOSS
Cal +17 LOSS
Kansas State -1 WIN
Missouri +3.5 WIN-- Over from jump street.
Coastal Carolina +2 WIN
Tennessee -11 WIN
UCLA -16.5 WIN


8-4


1. @Penn State +15 v Ohio State: Since i can get better than 2 TDs I'm going to pull the trigger here. When I handicap games, I consider a number of things, but obviously one of them is past performance from this year. That's almost pointless in the case of Ohio State because their numbers are going to look other worldly compared to their opponent because they haven't really played anyone, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Their defensive numbers look great, but if you look at their schedule, the best offense they've played is probably either Toledo or Wisconsin. I'm sure they're better than last year since they have Jim Knowles calling the shots now, but there's no telling just how good they are on defense. Over the years, Penn State has been good against the Buckeyes, and good in Happy Valley. Since Franklin has been there, the Nittany Lions are 6-2 ATS against Ohio State and they've covered at he same clip(3 out of 4) in Happy Valley. This season I think Penn State matches up well against the Buckeyes, and I would say, much better than they do against Michigan, since Ohio State is set up to throw it with CJ Stroud much more than they are to run it with their running backs. Penn State's pass defense has been very good, ranking 9th in yards per attempt against and 5th in QB rating against, both of which are better than an Iowa team that held OSU to only 360 total yards last week. This will be only their second road game of the year, and the first one(MSU) was a dead atmosphere from the start. As I mentioned, we really don't know what Ohio State's ceiling is as a defense, and Penn State, even though they aren't that explosive of an offense, will be the most talented offense they've played with the two running backs, and Mitchell Tinsley and Brenton Strange catching passes. 15 seems a tad too much, and the Nittany Lions have been able to cover spreads of that size with significantly worse teams than this.
 
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2. Notre Dame +2 @ Syracuse: There's a confluence of things that have me on the Irish here. First, I have big appreciation for the Orange over the past few years. They've been the source of quite a few covers over the years, but even at an inflated price, I was not on the Orange last week. Hindsight tells me I should have, but I was a little afraid that the yardage total would be somewhere where it ended up, which in most cases would NOT have resulted in a cover, Syracuse finds themselves in a bad spot this week, coming off the tough loss at Clemson in a game they were beat up in. Several key defensive players are banged up and questionable, and Notre Dame arrives in a role they are very comfortable in. Few teams have as much variance home/road performance as Notre Dame. On the road(or away from home at least) they hung to the end with Ohio State, blew out a 1 loss North Carolina team and dispatched BYU. At home they've lost outright to Marshall and Stanford. Syracuse's weakness on defense(exacerbated this week by some banged up DL) is stopping the run, and ND can run it. Also, the ND defense is solid, especially in the pass rush, and Schrader and the Orange have given up a ton of sacks. ND is also significantly better on 3rd down, so they'll be the offense more likely to keep sustained drives going. Syracuse's bubble was burst last week, and oftentimes teams that lose 1 after a great start usually lose a couple more in short order. ND has been great away from home and I think it pays dividends down the road as well.
 
3. @UCONN +8 v Boston College: The Eagles used to be a favorite of mine, but they have no business being a road favorite this year. BC has been horrific on offense. Every conceivable category is nearly a laughingstock for the Eagles, including a 122nd ranking in yards per play, 129th in rush per attempt and 117th on 3rd down. UCONN isn't much better offensively, but they can run the ball a bit and they've been competitive on defense. Jim Mora has been able to generate a little bit of momentum and positive feelings in the program, and this is an opportunity for the Huskies to make a statement. What kind of statement that is by beating this particular BC team I don't know, but it probably means a lot to them given the Power 5 status and location of BC. Ultimately, both offenses are bad so I'll take the better rushing offense and 8 points when these 2 teams look really similar on paper.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
@UCONN +8 v Boston College: The Eagles used to be a favorite of mine, but they have no business being a road favorite this year. BC has been horrific on offense. Every conceivable category is nearly a laughingstock for the Eagles, including a 122nd ranking in yards per play, 129th in rush per attempt and 117th on 3rd down. UCONN isn't much better but they can run the ball a bit and Jim Mora has been able to generate a little bit of momentum and positive feelings on a few dates this year Ultimately, both offenses will most likely struggle, so I'll take the better rushing offense and 8 points on a team that is probably a reasonable facsimile. UConn actually looks like the slightly better team on paper
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I been cuse biggest fan, I didn’t understand the game plan last week tho. They certainly confused DJ into some bad throws, I thought he be better but because I thought cuse would run blitz a lot more as that 3-3-5 can’t hold up to power run games and as we saw Shipley and several others just abused them
On the go round. That bad news facing a Irish team that would love to do exactly the same thing! Cuse offense was good with scripted plays where they used tucker as a decoy and got Shrader room to run, but once that played itself out cuse offense could do Nothing and clemson just bludgeoned them in 2nd half. I think much the same gonna happen here. Cuse should sell out to stop run and see if Payne can beat them but will they? Maybe the fact they beat up at corner prevented them from doing that but imo it their best chance. I’m with you I think Irish will run thru this 3-3-5 and don’t expect the same turnover luck to continue for cuse, even tho I much rather see them win this bout money and Irish as dogs the smart money imo,
 
Thanks for sharing. Solid perspectives and sound reasoning. Im defintely with you on ND. Cant be with you on Penn St mostly because go Buckeyes. Ill tail along with Uconn, small play. Seems strong enough from what I can see, so LFG.

Best of luck this weekend!
 
I cleaned up the UCONN writeup FYI. Was falling asleep as I wrote it. Not very coherent on a re-read.
 
EL CAPO said:
when do you have time to cap ? on airplanes ? ......seems like alot of thought goes into these and not rushed, love the thread :shake::cheers3:
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LOL good question El Capo. Usually at night during the week I can look into the games in the hotel room. It's a welcome break.
 
4. Cincinnati +2 @ UCF: It looks like I'm the square side of this one, as most if not all of the handicappers away from this site that I pay attention to are tiptoeing in the UCF direction. I guess I can see it because Cincy isn't the same team as they were last year. When we make comparisons to last year, they aren't as good in the secondary, at QB, at WR, and they haven't been wiping people out an attempting to cover 24 point spreads every week like they were last year. We perceive that as "something being off" with Cincy, and when you compare them to last year, I guess there is. But they aren't playing themselves from last year, they're playing UCF. Although that will be a task, I still think they're the better team. Coming into the season, I absolutely LOVED the fit of John Rhys Plumlee in the Malzahn offense, and overall, it's been extremely positive. But if you stop the run and force Plumlee to pass, as Louisville did in the second half of their game earlier this year, it can get ugly for him. When you look at where Cincy has been and look at their schedule since the Arkansas game, you can see how they might have been a little bored. Tulsa. Miami(OH). Indiana. USF. They barely snuck by SMU last week but dominated them in the box score, holding the Mustangs to 258 yards, and have done that on defense pretty much every game despite the boredom. They're ranked 3rd in yards per play against. They're ranked 5th in yards per carry, and although they are looking at a step up in class with this UCF squad here, Fickell will for sure game plan and focus on stopping the run. The Bounce House will be rocking(as much as possible in the middle of the day, I guess) and it will be a tough game, but ultimately, I trust this Cincy team who has been there before and will have their full attention on the Knights, given that they are dogged in this game. Ultimately I trust them more than I trust Plumlee and company to pull out the win in this one.
 
5. Rutgers +14 @Minnesota: I think everyone knows my primary drill when it comes to Rutgers in Big Ten games nowadays. Take Schiano when he's dogged on the road(which is most of them time) and play against him when he's dogged at home(also, most of the time). The tally is now 7-1 after they somehow covered at Ohio State, and although I'd probably be on this side regardless, you can also make some good logical sense with this side from a technical standpoint. I'm not sure if Tanner Morgan is coming back this week, but even if he does, this Minnesota passing game is completely broken. They have no receivers left after Chris Autman Bell got hurt that can either get open or compete in traffic for a ball, and that was painfully obvious the past couple weeks. PJ Fleck has always relied on the run, and that is overwhelmingly true now. The bad news for the Gophers is that Rutgers actually has a very solid run defense, and a good defense overall, something we figured would be the case with a Greg Schiano led program by year 3. Rutgers just wants to get bowl eligible, and all of their goals are in front of them. Minnesota on the other hand is pretty much eliminated from their more lofty goals this year, and fan apathy is rampant. The Gophers are just playing out the string for the most part and if you ask a Minnesota fan, they wouldn't be surprised at all if the Gophers lost this outright, and they probably wouldn't care if they did. In a scenario like that, give me the dog.
 
6. Northwestern +11 @Iowa: At this point, how can you not fade Iowa, especially in this scenario. Can you imagine the Iowa crowd if Northwestern takes a lead in this game and Ferentz keeps trotting Spencer Petras out there? The kids in the children's hospital will be opening the windows to boo and flip off the coaching staff after the first quarter ends. How bad is the Iowa offense? Ohio State scored 54 points without having hardly any success in the entire game on offense last week. Granted, Northwestern's defense is not good, but they do put 11 healthy college students out there and the kids try hard, so chances are they'll have a lot of success against this Iowa offense. Will the Cat offense score? I don't know, but if they can get to 13 or so points somehow, maybe off an errant tipped INT or 2, they'll be able to overcome the two Iowa defensive TDs and stay within the number. Road dog Pat Fitzgerald found a way last week against a pretty good Maryland team to do what he usually does, (hint: cover) as a road dog, so the precedent is there this year. Northwestern also has a nice history against the Hawkeyes as well, having covered 5 of the last 6 and 3 in a row at Kinnick Stadium.
 
7. @Cal +17 @Oregon: Let me tell you, the proposition of fading this Oregon offense right now is not very appetizing after watching what they did to my UCLA +6 ticket last week. This is a big overreaction though, especially for a team that still as a default plays pretty piss poor defense. The spot is not great for Oregon for a couple reasons, first they are coming off an electrifying national TV performance against UCLA, only to travel to Cal, a team that makes a habit of playing to the level of it's competition under Justin Wilcox...a bit of a sleep spot. Second, they are a Pac 12 team that has been re-identified as a possible National Playoff contender, or at least the best hope the conference has left. If the Pac 12 is good at anything, it's eliminating themselves from that position as soon as possible when it arises. It would take a loss in this game for that for Oregon, and I'm not saying that will happen, but I can see if being a major possibility in the late afternoon hours. Cal struggles in two main areas on offense, both because of Jack Plummer's lack of mobility: 3rd down and sack rate. He can't move, so when the other team brings pressure, he gets sacked, and that puts Cal behind the 8 ball with 3rd and longs, or causes him to get sacked in passing downs. Oregon sucks at both of those things. They can't get off the field on 3rd down(128th) and they don't pressure the Qb (113th). As a result, this defense is a good matchup for the Cal offense, and if "Road Bo Nix" still exists, Cal might hang in there on defense. Overall 17 is a pretty big overreaction to last week. I think it's too much.
 
8. @Kansas State -1 v Oklahoma State: I think this line assumes that Adrian Martinez is going to play, but even if he doesn't Will Howard has taken the snaps at practice this week and appears ready to go, and that will be good enough for me. I always hesitate to go against Mike Gundy, a hero to degenerate gamblers everywhere due to his Houdini like ability to cover spreads regardless of how the games go. It truly is a major risk to go against him in any case, but things are starting to get ridiculous this year and regression has to come in a major way for the Cowboys. On paper, OSU is good at only one thing: 3rd down defense. When you look at the rest of their defensive numbers, there is absolutely no logical reason for that. It appears to be just the luck of the draw, the same kind of luck that allowed them to benefit from a 14-0 edge in number of penalties called last week against Texas. Yes! You heard that right. Texas was called for 14 penalties and they were called for zero. They were perfect I tell you! My guess is that a few people in the Big 12 office caught wind of that number and might be a little eager to prove that there is no bias against the Cowboys, so we might see a bit of regression in that number in the coming weeks. If Gundy is a paterfamilias at covering among coaches, Chris Kleimann is right behind him, hitting at over 63% ATS since he got there. K State should be able to run the ball all day on the Cowboys, and they can stop the pass defensively, ranking 20th in PFF's coverage metric and 38th in sack rate. Okie State needs to throw the ball with Sanders because they haven't been able to get a running game going at all. K State needs a win after that debacle in the second half in Ft Worth last week, and they're back home against a team way overdue for a comeuppance. I'll take the Wildcats here.
 
9. Missouri +3.5 @South Carolina: I was happy to cash a ticket on the Gamecocks last week, and a ML one at that, but if you watched that game, the Gamecocks were extremely lucky. A kickoff Return and a 17 yard TD drive set them up, and then Rattler and company did virtually nothing the rest of the game until they drove on a tired A&M defense on the final drive to out it away. Luckily for them, A&M had to keep rotating QBs and they did a good job stopping the run, or that would have been another story. It was a huge win for the Cocks, and it got them ranked, but now they have to do it all over again against a Missouri team with a better defense and in my opinion, pretty solid edges over them in a lot of categories. Missouri's defense is legit, ranking 20th in yards per play, 16th against the pass and 11th on 3rd down. I don't think Rattler will have much success, and if the Gamecocks 87th ranked rush defense is leaky, they might be in for a long day. Mizzou has been resourceful on the road, and let's not forget how they showed themselves by taking Georgia to the wire a few weeks ago. I think Mizzou is the better team on paper, and if they had the road win under their belt at Auburn, (which they basically won for all intents and purposes) they'd probably be favored in this game. I think Mizzou is better than a 50/50 proposition to win the game outright, so I'll definitely take the 3.5, and I think you can find 4 is you look hard enough.
 
10. Coastal Carolina +2.5 @Marshall: Marshall is coming off a very nice win, having knocked off James Madison on the rpad as a 12 point dog, but JMU lost their QB Centaio in the early part of that game, leaving them with a helpless backup who couldn't move it against a Marshall D that had worked up a lather. Marshall is now back in the home favorite role that they suck in, having gone 5-15 ATS since 2019. Coastal has struggled on defense this year, much more than in recent years, but this Marshall offense can't get going against anyone, and Grayson McCall remains elite at QB for the Chants, sporting another sparkling ratio, 19-1, which ups his TD/INT ratio to 72/6 since 2020. CC is ranked 8th in yards per play, 6th in yards per attempt and 22nd in yards per rush. They also can sack the QB on defense while Henry Colombi and company stand back there like sitting ducks in the Marshall pass game, leading to a 128th sack rate against. Marshall plays good defense, but nobody completely stops the Jamey Chadwell/Grayson McCall offense, and I don't know that the Herd offense can keep up, especially in a role they historically fail to cover in.
 
I’m a bit confused cause didn’t you play ucf vs ecu last week? I hated that game but feel like you shouldn’t let it deter you off ucf this week,
 
Br@ssknux said:
8. @Kansas State -1 v Oklahoma State: I think this line assumes that Adrian Martinez is going to play, but even if he doesn't Will Howard has taken the snaps at practice this week and appears ready to go, and that will be good enough for me. I always hesitate to go against Mike Gundy, a hero to degenerate gamblers everywhere due to his Houdini like ability to cover spreads regardless of how the games go. It truly is a major risk to go against him in any case, but things are starting to get ridiculous this year and regression has to come in a major way for the Cowboys. On paper, OSU is good at only one thing: 3rd down defense. When you look at the rest of their defensive numbers, there is absolutely no logical reason for that. It appears to be just the luck of the draw, the same kind of luck that allowed them to benefit from a 14-0 edge in number of penalties called last week against Texas. Yes! You heard that right. Texas was called for 14 penalties and they were called for zero. They were perfect I tell you! My guess is that a few people in the Big 12 office caught wind of that number and might be a little eager to prove that there is no bias against the Cowboys, so we might see a bit of regression in that number in the coming weeks. If Gundy is a paterfamilias at covering among coaches, Chris Kleimann is right behind him, hitting at over 63% ATS since he got there. K State should be able to run the ball all day on the Cowboys, and they can stop the pass defensively, ranking 20th in PFF's coverage metric and 38th in sack rate. Okie State needs to throw the ball with Sanders because they haven't been able to get a running game going at all. K State needs a win after that debacle in the second half in Ft Worth last week, and they're back home against a team way overdue for a comeuppance. I'll take the Wildcats here.
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Agree a thousand percent on k state. Only thing is I can't articulate it the way only you can. If I didn't know better, I'd think you watched every game. Best on here. Not to diss others, just imo.
 
11. @Tennessee -11 (-113) v Kentucky: This is another game where I can't find hardly anyone on the Tennessee side, and I can understand that because Kentucky has been a side, especially as a dog, and ESPECIALLY as a double digit dog that has served me very well over the years. Also, as every person who has said one word about this game has told you ad nauseum, Tennessee has Georgia next week. Laying points in this game(and if you continue to wait, you might get to lay even less than 11) is typically not something I'd be looking to do, but the probably game script of this one has me scratching my head as to how Kentucky stays in this game if they get a B effort or better from Tennessee. First, let's all acknowledge that Tennessee owns Kentucky. Even though these teams have been off in different directions over the past decade or more, Tennessee has still beaten Kentucky 22 of the past 25 years and has covered in 12 of the last 15. As much of a laughingstock the Vols have been over that period, and we're talking about some embarrassing Derek Dooley/Jeremy Pruett/Butch Jones teams, they've still been able to figure out Kentucky. In this case, if you're Mark Stoops, what is your game plan? Well, considering what Josh Heupel did to your defense last year, it certainly will revolve around keeping that offense off the field as much as possible. In case you forgot, the Tennessee passing game gained 21 yards per completion and 15.8 yards PER ATTEMPT in Lexington last year. Has the Tennessee offense gotten worse? No it has not. So Stoops will probably want to run on the Vols to grind out drives, which they did last year, thereby keeping them in the game despite the torching their pass defense suffered through. The problem is that nobody has been able to run on Tennessee this year, as the Vols are ranked 7th in rush defense while Kentucky's offensive line is known to be among the weakest they've had in years. Kentucky's defense also has not put any pressure on the quarterback this year, so there's no reason to think Hendon Hooker will be under any duress as he lines up throws to Jaylin Hyatt, Bruton McCoy and (don't look now) Cedric Tillman, their the Vols best receiver who is rumored to be back this week. Ultimately, I just don't see how Kentucky can stay in this one without airing it out with Levis, and if Tennessee gets some sacks(KY is 127th in sack rate against) it'll just be pile on time for the Vols.
 
ronnie a said:
Agree a thousand percent on k state. Only thing is I can't articulate it the way only you can. If I didn't know better, I'd think you watched every game. Best on here. Not to diss others, just imo.
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Thanks as always for the kind words Ronnie!
 
12. @UCLA -16.5 v Stanford: Stanford has been a great foil for good offenses who want to just build a big lead, go to sleep and give up a TD or two of garbage time TDs. That looks like the game script here as well, and as long as Stanford doesn't start scoring until it's 38-7 or so, I'll be fine with it. Stanford's defense is 117th in yards per play against, 124th in yards per rush attempt against (Hello Zach Charbonnet) and 100+ against the pass. They are going to be helpless against this UCLA offense that is humming. There's some danger in that teams sometimes hit the doldrums after their first loss, but this is such a mismatch that UCLA could roll out their D+ game and still pile up the yards. Stanford remains one of the worst road dogs in the country, having covered only 5 of their last 15 in that role. I don't see this one being close.
 
One other thought....as I mentioned, I NEVER bet on Illinois as I don't have any interest in any cosmic jinxing, but as long as they don't have a turnover fest, they should kick the shit out of Nebraska. Nebraska's offensive and defensive lines are both shit, and Illinois has dominated every team they've played in the trenches. There's a chance that Nebraska could hit a couple big plays with Trey Palmer, but Casey Thompson is going to get beaten to a pulp if he stands back there too long. if Tommy DeVito takes care of the ball, Illinois might have it's best offensive output of the year, especially if they can cash in for TDs instead of settling for FGs like they have been. This is easily the worst defense Illinois has played, so we might see them put up some points. Again, I won't be betting them, but if I was unbiased, I'd be pretty comfortable with a -7 ticket with the Illini.
 
Br@ssknux said:
One other thought....as I mentioned, I NEVER bet on Illinois as I don't have any interest in any cosmic jinxing, but as long as they don't have a turnover fest, they should kick the shit out of Nebraska. Nebraska's offensive and defensive lines are both shit, and Illinois has dominated every team they've played in the trenches. There's a chance that Nebraska could hit a couple big plays with Trey Palmer, but Casey Thompson is going to get beaten to a pulp if he stands back there too long. if Tommy DeVito takes care of the ball, Illinois might have it's best offensive output of the year, especially if they can cash in for TDs instead of settling for FGs like they have been. This is easily the worst defense Illinois has played, so we might see them put up some points. Again, I won't be betting them, but if I was unbiased, I'd be pretty comfortable with a -7 ticket with the Illini.
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Im
Not allowed to beg them or Nw and happier for jt!
 
Br@ssknux said:
12. @UCLA -16.5 v Stanford: Stanford has been a great foil for good offenses who want to just build a big lead, go to sleep and give up a TD or two of garbage time TDs. That looks like the game script here as well, and as long as Stanford doesn't start scoring until it's 38-7 or so, I'll be fine with it. Stanford's defense is 117th in yards per play against, 124th in yards per rush attempt against (Hello Zach Charbonnet) and 100+ against the pass. They are going to be helpless against this UCLA offense that is humming. There's some danger in that teams sometimes hit the doldrums after their first loss, but this is such a mismatch that UCLA could roll out their D+ game and still pile up the yards. Stanford remains one of the worst road dogs in the country, having covered only 5 of their last 15 in that role. I don't see this one being close.
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Nailed
 
I am a humble person by nature, but if you re-read entries 8, 9, 10, 11 and 12 from this week, I don't know that I've ever strung 5 write-ups together that were more on the money than those 5.

Nice week, 8-4. Too bad my dumpster dives in the Big Ten didn't bear any fruit. Fitzy and Schiano shitting the bed on the same weekend as road dogs is rare, but that's the risk when you back shit teams.
 
Br@ssknux said:
I am a humble person by nature, but if you re-read entries 8, 9, 10, 11 and 12 from this week, I don't know that I've ever strung 5 write-ups together that were more on the money than those 5.

Nice week, 8-4. Too bad my dumpster dives in the Big Ten didn't bear any fruit. Fitzy and Schiano shitting the bed on the same weekend as road dogs is rare, but that's the risk when you back shit teams.
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It would not be a good week of college football @CTG without your thread, ever
 
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