Week 9 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

[Timh]

Brass BOL on the week, solid thoughts and info from you as always.

 

[Br@ssknux]

14. @Colorado State +14.5 v Air Force: CSU is 3-4(should really be 2-5) but they've played well in the big games on their schedule, winning against Boise(luckily), and almost knocking off Colorado as a huge dog. They covered last week on the road at UNLV as a 7 point dog, and now they face Air Force at home. It's snowing in Ft Collins, but there isn't much forecast for wind, so I think the Rams should be able to throw it with QB Fowler-Nicolosi and WR Tory Horton, one of the best receivers in the country. AirForce has great defensive numbers, but they really haven't played a pass attack with a pulse yet this year. Also, 14.5 is a lot to cover considering how methodical Air Force plays. This is kind of a feel play, because Colorado State just kind of looks the part of a solid team even when you don't see the results in the games they play under the radar. Also, with all the snow, it might keep Air Force focused on the ground game, which is good for CSU because Larrier would probably burn them if he decided to throw the ball downfield a few times. Last season a much weaker Rams team covered in Colorado Springs. It's a rivalry game, I like the Rams to give a good effort here.

This was disappointing. 339-293 yards edge and they couldn't cover 14.5 at home. Went for it down 10 at their own 35 with 10 minutes left, failed and Air Force scores on a short field to get over the number. Then stopped on downs at the 15 looking for the back door. Might have had the right side on that one.

 

[Br@ssknux]

15. @Wisconsin +14.5 v Ohio State: Ultimately, I think this is too many points for an Ohio State offense that we all watched struggle several times this year. There's a chance that they are back to normal on the injury front, but they haven't looked that great when everyone has been available either. Defensively, Wisconsin packs their lunch pails and has been very good against the pass, which is good in this case because Ohio State's rushing issues probably will lead to the Buckeyes having to throw the ball to have success. I worry about Wisconsin's ability to score, but they won't need a ton to cover a big number like this. This is the first major marquee game for Fickell in Madison and I trust that his team will give a great effort in that environment. I think we all would agree that Ohio State has not proven that this edition of the Buckeyes can't just waltz into a place like this and roll their helmets out there. If Wisconsin gets a couple turnover breaks early, which is in their DNA, this number will look really hard to get past.

I was sure OSU was going to get a late pick 6 for the front door, but Locke spared us that unpleasantness. 14.5 turned out to be just a bit too many.

 

[Br@ssknux]

16. @Arizona State +5.5 v Washington State: I don't know if everyone watched that game that the Sun Devils played in Seattle last week, but I was astounded at how their defense handled Penix and the Washington offense. We don't need to rehash that game, but they should have won, and it was no fluke. Overall, what they did was play to their numbers, because after a terrible start, their defense has been one of the better ones in the Pac 12 if not the country. They are only averaging giving up 332 yards per game on the year, and they've outgained Cal, Colorado and Washington by an average of 85 yards a game the past 3 weeks. Offensively they seem to have found something with this Bourquet/Skattebo run/short pass combo that chews up clock and moves the chains. On the flip side, Wazzou's defense has been getting torched due mostly to injuries and a lack of depth up front, and although Cam Ward found his rhythm a bit in garbage time last week against Oregon, the Cougs cannot run the ball to save their lives. Arizona State showed that they can stop a pass first offense last week, and teams from the Pacific Norhwest have always struggled in the desert. ASU hasn't won yet in the Pac-12, but there's no way this version of Washington State should be favored on the road here. Maybe in September, but not now.

A predictable outright win for the Sun Devils. Sun Devils ran at will and outgained them by 100 yards. Skattebo 11 yards per carry!

 

[2daBank]

I could not agree more about Clemson. The fans are also expressing the same thoughts and questions you express above, which means you're paying attention! -- which you seem to be very good at when it comes to college football!

I'm on the under today -- expecting something like 17-10 or 17-14. Maybe that's how you play it.

I think you will see a different Clemson team at home against Notre Dame next week.

Acc In particular I always seem to have a pretty good read on, not sure why. Most years I hate big10/not very good at (this year been way better), acc I tend to always do well. Top my head id say clemson/nd be super low scoring. Although I didn’t love the why canes pushed tigers d around in 4th qrtr and ot, never woulda thought they be able to run on them like that, especially when they barely had a pass game To worry bout w the backup in and canes pretty much running play After play. That shocked me.

 

[Br@ssknux]

17. @Arizona +3 v Oregon State: Here's another Pacific Northwest squad traveling to the desert, and surprise surprise, I'm on the home dog. I think this has been beaten to death, but Arizona is really good, and it doesn't matter who plays quarterback for them. Despite how good the Beavers have been this year, and they've been really good, this game is a total toss up on paper. I think Arizona will be able to move the ball however they want on the Beavs defense, but if DJU isn't on his game, I'm not sure the Beavers will be able to run it on Arizona who has done a good job stopping the run this year. OSU os also a completely different team on the road, especially defensively. In their two Pac 12 road games they gave up 500+ to Cam Ward and Washington State in their only loss and then gave up 40 and 7 yards a carry to Cal two weeks later. Arizona is set up to run on them or throw it. I think it'll take a great effort from the Beavs to cover this, and they have not had a good run as a conference road favorite (2-5).


Good win for AZ who continue to make believers out of people. Very even game. Being on the dog in this one was the right side.

 

[M.W.]

Acc In particular I always seem to have a pretty good read on, not sure why. Most years I hate big10/not very good at (this year been way better), acc I tend to always do well. Top my head id say clemson/nd be super low scoring. Although I didn’t love the why canes pushed tigers d around in 4th qrtr and ot, never woulda thought they be able to run on them like that, especially when they barely had a pass game To worry bout w the backup in and canes pretty much running play After play. That shocked me.

Clemson's best DE was held out for disciplinary reasons. He's more of a pass rusher than run stopper, but it still made a difference. Then the other starter went out with an injury. We had all our DT's, however,

 

[2daBank]

Clemson's best DE was held out for disciplinary reasons. He's more of a pass rusher than run stopper, but it still made a difference. Then the other starter went out with an injury. We had all our DT's, however,

I mean with a backup qb and them not showing any willingness to throw 3rd stringers shoulda stuffed the run, that was on the play caller! Shoulda been selling out out against run and made them show they could throw

 

[Br@ssknux]

Defensive TD coming for Ohio State

 

[Br@ssknux]

Added some comments on each game. in those posts.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Ended up 10-7 for the week. Not bad