Week 9 Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Nov 4 Thu 2021

07:20 PM
311New York Jets+10½
-105		+420O 47
-110
312Indianapolis Colts-10½
-115		-525U 47
-110
Nov 7 Sun 2021

01:00 PM
451Houston Texans+7
-120		+265O 46
-110
452Miami Dolphins-7
+100		-315U 46
-110
01:00 PM
457New England Patriots-3
+100		-150O 43
-110
458Carolina Panthers+3
-120		+130U 43
-110
01:00 PM
459Buffalo Bills-14
-110		-950O 48½
-110
460Jacksonville Jaguars+14
-110		+670U 48½
-110
01:00 PM
461Cleveland Browns+2½
+100		+130O 46
-110
462Cincinnati Bengals-2½
-120		-150U 46
-110
01:00 PM
463Las Vegas Raiders-3
-105		O 47½
-110
464New York Giants+3
-115		U 47½
-110
04:05 PM
467Los Angeles Chargers-3
+100		-140O 51
-110
468Philadelphia Eagles+3
-120		+120U 51
-110
04:25 PM
469Green Bay Packers+2½
+100		O 54½
-110
470Kansas City Chiefs-2½
-120		U 54½
-110
04:25 PM
471Arizona Cardinals-2½
-110		O 47
-110
472San Francisco 49ers+2½
-110		U 47
-110
08:20 PM
473Tennessee Titans+6
-105		+225O 54
-110
474Los Angeles Rams-6
-115		-265U 54
-110
Nov 8 Mon 2021

08:15 PM
475Chicago Bears+6½
-110		+230O 40
-110
476Pittsburgh Steelers-6½
-110		-275U 40
-110
 
Capaholic said:
Here it comes. Jordan Love 31-35 420 yards 4td
Click to expand...

Could you ask for a better defense to throw Love out there against? I'm not sure you could.

Before MNF, this line was -3, after it was -1, I was going to guess -6 or -6.5, but it looks like -7 is popping up now.
 
Mike Florio going hard after Discount, saying he lied about his vaccination status and violated COVID protocols repeatedly to give the impression he was vaccinated.

The Shield has a problem.
 
Joe Public said:
I don't know why this made me laugh out loud, but it did.
Click to expand...
Clev should just cut him at this point. They’ve sucked any trade value he had away. They defend him all the time but clev was wayyy better last year when he was hurt and this year w him have underperformed. Not pinning it all on him but he just doesn’t have the desired effect on this team
 
Big daddy naught said:
Clev should just cut him at this point. They’ve sucked any trade value he had away. They defend him all the time but clev was wayyy better last year when he was hurt and this year w him have underperformed. Not pinning it all on him but he just doesn’t have the desired effect on this team
Click to expand...

I agree. Which sucks because what an amazing chance for the Browns this was, but it's clearly never worked. For whatever reason, he and Baker don't mix—and the reality is, the offense has been better without him. They said they weren't going to trade him, which part of me thinks was code for "no one called about him." But now, you might as well just cut your losses.

And, if they did, it would be really interesting to see if OBJ came to Vegas to take that roster spot that just opened up.
 
Been focused on Breeders Cup so I might not have my best stuff this week in NFL. But lets take a look:

Cle/Cin - Both teams off confidence draining losses, who bounces back? Browns trying for addition by subtraction in sending OBJ home. Their biggest problem though is the health of their secondary. The line seems to be begging for Bengal money at -2.5 and on Yahoo at least it looks like the betters are obliging. That makes me want to go Browns +2.5.

Den/Dal - Line moved from -7.5 to -10 once it became likely that Dak would play. Love this year's team but I'm not ready to trust a double digit spread. Denver is kind of a poor man's Dallas. The QB is serviceable but a little worse. The RB tandem is decent but a little worse. The WR set has talent but a little less. I can see Denver hanging around awhile and keeping it a one score game. Or Dallas can push it out to a good lead and then get sloppy late and allow the back door cover. Either way I'm staying away. Teaser only.

Hou/Mia - Two teams with identical records, incredibly, but the Fins have shown a pulse being competitive in games. I'll try my Houston theory here and fade them first half, then if the bet loses double down on a 2nd half fade.><

Atl/NO - The Taysom HIll era resumes. How miraculous that a guy can be sidelined for 3 weeks by a concussion then the very week he's needed he suddenly starts passing tests? Yeah, right. Atlanta still doesn't have Ridley and the vibes for their offense aren't good without him. Saints should methodically cover the 6.5.

LV/NYG - Raiders were feeling great heading into the bye but have to be a bit distracted by the Ruggs accident. I think it opens up more work for Edwards which isn't bad. Giants are still a mess in terms of skill position players and who's actually available. Passing on this one as the line looks light and its hard to no how focused and sharp the Raiders will be.

NE/Car - Both teams coming off big road wins. So the 4-4 Pats are a bigger favorite at 4-4 Carolina than the 5-2 Raiders are at the 2-6 Giants? Is that the seeing ghosts factor? Pass since the public is too much on NE and I can't stomach backing Darnold here.

Buf/Jax - Jags have played a couple of levels better at home then on the road. Bills got some mojo back late last week against MIami. Not sure how interested they'll be here, but they've hammered bottom 5 teams this year for the most part. I'll definitely use them in teasers.

Min/Bal - Vikings on a shorter week coming off the Sunday night loss. Ravens have had to sit with that ugly beating from the Bengals for two weeks. I think they come out and put it on the Vikes a bit. Baltimore -6.

LAC/Phi - Chargers suddenly have to reverse a two game losing streak, while the Eagles hammered helpless Detroit by running it for the first time all year. Running is the path to dissecting the Chargers, so can we count on Philly to do it again? No. I like the Chargers to cover the 1.5.

GB/KC - Line moved big when Discount was ruled out. Unlike last week when ARod was able to finesse a win despite missing all his WRs, I think this time Love will struggle despite all the WRs back. KC -7 for me.

Ari/SF - 3-4 NIners favored over the 7-1 Cards? Wonder if that says something about Kyler's availability. Pass.

Ten/LAR - Life with the King will be different for the Titans, but they're one of the more resilient teams in the league so we'll see how it goes. Pass until we see what the offense looks like.

Chi/Pit - I refuse to lay points with Tomlin after wins. They tend to do well on Monday night under Tomlin but they also have an annoying tendency to play to the level of their competition. Did Fields find the game slow down for him a little last week? We'll see.
 
Niners all day, only nfl side I’ll prob play this week. Even if Kyler plays he ain’t gonna be running around, last time they played Niners held them to 17. Cards will be seeing a completely different Niners offensive game plan as the 1st game was Trey Lance running damn near every play. I thought Niners offense finally looked like I expected it to last week and think it carries over in what essentially a must win for them.
 
Jm8122 said:
OBJ will be getting released by Cle. Raiders do need a WR replacement
Click to expand...
Figure he fits in naturally with 2 teams that are out receivers close to home

Saints and Falcons are both very logical fits
 
Yikes, nearly 90% on the Chargers and yet that line is down from the opener.

Also, the Giants suck out loud, but it's tough to bet on the Raiders after the week they've had.
 
B.A.R. said:
Raiders gonna put up some points
Click to expand...

I don't really have a read on this game, so I'm happy to defer to you here. In theory they are the dramatically better team. And you can make the argument that they've been through this whole 'huge distraction, now we have to go on the road' thing before. Literally two weeks ago. So ... maybe. I feel like to go there you have to believe that adversity has hardened this team—which the last two weeks suggest is true. Or it was removing Gruden that sort of removed the ceiling for them.

My hesitation would be that one, removing Ruggs has to change how they gameplan, right? And then the cumulative effect of all the drama possibly catching up to them.

All of which is why I'm totally happy to defer to someone who has a better read on this one than me. Hahaha.
 
Joe Public said:
Yikes, nearly 90% on the Chargers and yet that line is down from the opener.

Also, the Giants suck out loud, but it's tough to bet on the Raiders after the week they've had.
Click to expand...
Other school of thought regarding the Raiders is it's probably awesome for them to get on the road, go to NYC and not deal with the Vegas media for a minute. It could be a helluva welcome change for a minute.
 
Joe Public said:
I don't really have a read on this game, so I'm happy to defer to you here. In theory they are the dramatically better team. And you can make the argument that they've been through this whole 'huge distraction, now we have to go on the road' thing before. Literally two weeks ago. So ... maybe. I feel like to go there you have to believe that adversity has hardened this team—which the last two weeks suggest is true. Or it was removing Gruden that sort of removed the ceiling for them.

My hesitation would be that one, removing Ruggs has to change how they gameplan, right? And then the cumulative effect of all the drama possibly catching up to them.

All of which is why I'm totally happy to defer to someone who has a better read on this one than me. Hahaha.
Click to expand...
Obviously a lot of unexpected intangibles this week.

I think they come out focused though.

Since the coaching change I really like the offensive direction. Points will be scored. I think we get a few weeks of value(still) on TTs.
 
B.A.R. said:
Since the coaching change I really like the offensive direction. Points will be scored. I think we get a few weeks of value(still) on TTs.
Click to expand...

This is basically my motivation to bet on them going forward period. What I haven't seen people really talk about is how after the hot start, under Gruden, they started to stagnate a bit. It felt like once other teams had tape on them, the Raiders didn't adjust all that well—until Gruden was gone. Suddenly they look far more dynamic. I actually like this version of the team more than the one with Gruden in charge.
 
Contrarian view on the raiders - they beat possible overrated ravens team in a good matchup , beat pittsburgh when their o was in the toilet, should of lost to a tua -less dolphins , dominated by bears (not sure many ppl would take the bears today if that one is replayed),and since the coaching change beat a bronco team that allowed the steelers to throw bombs on them and beat a philly team that was allowing 70 % completions.

Now they travel east in a spot they historically do horrible in at a 1 pm game in a stadium they never show well in. Add in the Ruggs situation and a Giants defense that knows how to take away a #1 option like they did Kelce and Hill and I expect them to bracket Waller and Renfrow and not allow the deep ball. Giants are a horrible team to bet on but their defense seems to be rounding in to form and they came on strong this time period last season.

All that said if your betting on the Giants a team with it's own problems I wouldn't be surprised if the Raiders cover.
 
Saquon and Sterling Shepard are both out for the Giants on Sunday. Kenny Golloday (sp?) is questionable which I assume means he will play.
 
Joe Public said:
And then the cumulative effect of all the drama possibly catching up to them.
Click to expand...
This is where my head was on this also. Agreeing with JP, I know, yikes, right?

Loss to Bears was clearly Gruden drama, not indicative of talent levels. Then they banded together and upset the Broncos (don’t forget line was +5 in that game). Now this week way more emotional than anything I can remember for anyone that watched or heard about the videos.

I believe in teams banding together, but how many times can that happen successfully?
 
KJ said:
Figure he fits in naturally with 2 teams that are out receivers close to home

Saints and Falcons are both very logical fits
Click to expand...

No chance obj wants to catch passes from a tight end or a 3rd stringer in the big Easy. Doubt he wants to play for a perennial loser like Atl either. Raiders makes sense but every move they have made lately is all bout cutting cost so don’t see them shelling out any money for him.
 
Daylight savings is a bitch when you already wake up way too early.


Careful with the Bills this week. Here's why

A quick glance and most would think Allen will light up Jax weak D but looking a little closer I think it's a risky wager. This oline is in trouble. Spencer Brown is once again out, so Ford (who was benched in favor of Brown) is back in the lineup. Ok fine he has started a ton....only now guard Feliciano has been placed on ir, so an already middle of the pack oline is spread very thin. Some may chalk lw up to coming out flat off a bye, but man the line was scary bad at times. Miami was dominating the los in the first half, and blitzed 50% of the time quite effectively. I would expect much of the same from Jax. I do not expect the line to suddenly gel with two new lineman thrown in the rotation.

Throw in the fact that Allen will be the only qb available today protecting him becomes paramount. Beasley is banged up coming off a game where he was once again clutch. Dawson KNox out means Sweeney at te. Good hands but a turtle. I'd expect the game plan to be quick hitters and runs. Maybe they'll throw in some McKenzie reverses, but I fully expect them to keep the clock running and try to get out with a win while staying healthy. I'm sure Allen will still rip off some runs and Diggs/Sanders will be open if Allen does get time, but I don't think this is a spot where you want to lay chalk. I honestly don't even think teasers are safe. JMO full disclosure I was on the Fins lw and am still cold but I could see this being the teaser buster of the week.

LW they were extremely fortunate to cover the spread. Early missed Fins fg, horrid turnover in the redzone just before the half. Bills recovered nicely 2ndh by setting up screens to combat the pressure and sprinkling in some runs. I don't know how well this oline will be able to block so screens could be ineffective today. Now watch them come out and win by 30.
 
2daBank said:
No chance obj wants to catch passes from a tight end or a 3rd stringer in the big Easy. Doubt he wants to play for a perennial loser like Atl either. Raiders makes sense but every move they have made lately is all bout cutting cost so don’t see them shelling out any money for him.
Click to expand...
He’s only going to go to a team that has a top tier qb. Baltimore would be the best for imo. Lamar is dying for top wr talent and they can win. If the saints still had Jameis or a passing qb they would work but can’t see him there working with Trevor or hill? Atl is a bad team so that’s out. Seattle would have been interesting but they are too far back. Out of the contenders I just don’t see where he goes? Gb? Tampa rumors but they don’t need him. Sf possibly? I could see a pats fit but are they close enough to make a push and is mac strong enough to handle the drama?
 
Big daddy naught said:
He’s only going to go to a team that has a top tier qb. Baltimore would be the best for imo. Lamar is dying for top wr talent and they can win. If the saints still had Jameis or a passing qb they would work but can’t see him there working with Trevor or hill? Atl is a bad team so that’s out. Seattle would have been interesting but they are too far back. Out of the contenders I just don’t see where he goes? Gb? Tampa rumors but they don’t need him. Sf possibly? I could see a pats fit but are they close enough to make a push and is mac strong enough to handle the drama?
Click to expand...

Yea I dunno, obviously nobody is all that interested or they would have gave browns a 6th round pick or something which clearly nobody offered! At this point I kinda doubt he ends up impacting anything. I’m sure he land somewhere but I got no clue where or how much a difference he makes? Maybe kc be a place he could help?
 
2daBank said:
Yea I dunno, obviously nobody is all that interested or they would have gave browns a 6th round pick or something which clearly nobody offered! At this point I kinda doubt he ends up impacting anything. I’m sure he land somewhere but I got no clue where or how much a difference he makes? Maybe kc be a place he could help?
Click to expand...
I mean if im kc why? Defense is their major issue. They should have made a play on Gilmore when ne was moving him. Plus kc has cap issues don’t they moving fwd and they already took a flyer on Gordon.
 
Lexington 125 said:
Daylight savings is a bitch when you already wake up way too early.


Careful with the Bills this week. Here's why

A quick glance and most would think Allen will light up Jax weak D but looking a little closer I think it's a risky wager. This oline is in trouble. Spencer Brown is once again out, so Ford (who was benched in favor of Brown) is back in the lineup. Ok fine he has started a ton....only now guard Feliciano has been placed on ir, so an already middle of the pack oline is spread very thin. Some may chalk lw up to coming out flat off a bye, but man the line was scary bad at times. Miami was dominating the los in the first half, and blitzed 50% of the time quite effectively. I would expect much of the same from Jax. I do not expect the line to suddenly gel with two new lineman thrown in the rotation.

Throw in the fact that Allen will be the only qb available today protecting him becomes paramount. Beasley is banged up coming off a game where he was once again clutch. Dawson KNox out means Sweeney at te. Good hands but a turtle. I'd expect the game plan to be quick hitters and runs. Maybe they'll throw in some McKenzie reverses, but I fully expect them to keep the clock running and try to get out with a win while staying healthy. I'm sure Allen will still rip off some runs and Diggs/Sanders will be open if Allen does get time, but I don't think this is a spot where you want to lay chalk. I honestly don't even think teasers are safe. JMO full disclosure I was on the Fins lw and am still cold but I could see this being the teaser buster of the week.

LW they were extremely fortunate to cover the spread. Early missed Fins fg, horrid turnover in the redzone just before the half. Bills recovered nicely 2ndh by setting up screens to combat the pressure and sprinkling in some runs. I don't know how well this oline will be able to block so screens could be ineffective today. Now watch them come out and win by 30.
Click to expand...
Nailed it
 
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