Week 8 Write ups and hopefully feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
It's rare that I like weeknight games, but there's a couple this week, and I might add a 3rd later on. Went 11-5 on my numbered plays last week....they haven't all been posted here, but my record for the year is 57-41-4. I've got a lot of games on the radar this week....need to narrow them down. I'll start with the weeknighters:


1. @Texas St -2.5 v Louisiana Lafayette(Tuesday night): La-La is among the worst performing teams in the country this year, both in relation to expectations, and in ulfiltered shittiness. Defensively, they've been atrocious, ranking 121st in ypp...equally bad against the pass and the run. They've also managed to force only 1 turnover all year(Look for 4 tonight) Texas State has a much better defense than LA La, and their offense is certainly capable of scorching this putrid La La stop unit. It's a solid, balanced attack, ranking 28th in yards per carry on the ground and a perfectly competent 53rd in passer rating. I would have set this line more in the 7-8 point range in the event this line was determined based solely on results from this year. Who knows? Maybe last year's Cajun squad shows up this week, but after a 6 week sample size, and even after adjusting for their admittedly tough schedule, I'm not betting on that.


2. @Pittsburgh +1 v Virginia Tech: I would have actually pegged Pitt as a slight favorite here. It's hard to argue with the road results thus far this year with the Hokies, but I think they'll struggle here. The Michael Brewer offensive experience hasn't helped, as he has been mistake prone since he stepped on campus in Blacksburg. Now they face perhaps the best defense they've seen so far this year in a back to back road environment. In addition, I think there's a good chance that James Conner will see some daylight in the running game, and I think the Pitt offense is better equipped to handle the VT defense than vice versa. VT still can't run the ball to save their lives, and it might lead to some heavy pressure from the Pitt front 7.
 
agreed about pitt, but that txst strength of schedule makes me hesitate to put anything on them, even agains lala. GL.
 
Tough call on the Texas State U La La game last night. U La La was finally able to run the ball and just completely dominated the line of scrimmage and the tempo of the game.

Best of luck this weekend!
 
Elbie, Element: Thanks for the feedback. Yeah Element, that was a major bed shitting by Franchione and company. That one was over early. I guess "last year's Cajun squad showed up." Like I was afraid of. Bad call all around on that one.


3. Kansas St +7 @ Oklahoma: Oklahoma is in a bit of a strange spot right now, coming off two emotional roller coaster games back to back with the loss to TCU and the rivalry game with Texas last week. They were actually dominated by the Longhorns in the Cotton Bowl for the second straight year, (482-232 total yards) but snuck out a win due to a couple non-offensive scores. K state stops the run extremely well, so if Oklahoma is going to win handily, Trevor Knight will have to throw the ball effectively, which he has only done intermittently. We all know the deal with Bill Snyder as a dog and in conference ATS. They're also coming off a bye, so even though I'd prefer a couple more points, I'll take the TD. Who would be surprised if K State took this outright? Not me.


4. Baylor -7.5 @West Virginia: I had a money line bet on TCU last week, and it looked good, but sometimes Baylor is just a devastating force. It was simply asking too much of the TCU defense to hold down that offense for an entire game, which these days means about 105 plays and 4 and a half hours of real time. They piled up 780 yards against a defense that was figured to be one of the stoutest in the country coming into the game. West Virginia's defense is anything but that, ranking 88th in yards per play and 109th against the run. It doesn't matter what the rank is against the pass because you can bet your life that Baylor is going to throw it on them. Baylor also sports the #5 defense in the country in ypp and 8th best against the pass even after the 68 point debacle they gave up last week. I think WV, though improved is out of their league here. Tough turnaround for Baylor, but I think they had their scare last week, and they'll take care of business this week.
 
5. Iowa +5 @ Maryland: Great situation for the dog here. After a very shaky start, Iowa has righted the ship and has a chance to get to 6-1 on the season. Although the Hawkeyes have looked somewhat lost on offense at times this season, they haven't had to be all that great because their defense has been so stout. I think the Iowa defense will have a major edge against Maryland's offense, especially if the Hawkeyes can keep Terp QB CJ Brown from getting out of the pocket. This is also a case of a great road team playing an ineffective home team. Both of Maryland's losses have been at home, and Iowa has covered 8 in a row on the road. This is a matchup in which I'd be fading the home favorite regardless. I'll definitely take the slightly better team getting 5 in their most comfortable role.


6. Western Michigan +3 @Bowling Green: Although WMU is playing the second consecutive road game, I think this team is really starting to take shape, having covered 5 games in a row. They got behind Ball State early last week but roared back to take the outright win. They have established a nice run/pass balance with QB Zack Terrell throwing it and impressive true freshman Jarvion Franklin running it. Bowling Green has the rep, but they have played one of the weakest slate of defenses you can find, so their numbers are skewed. The offenses they've faced haven't been much better, but that hasn't stopped them from ranking near the bottom of the barrel in just about every conceivable defensive category. I give WM the edge in just about every phase of the game, and especially when WM has the ball. The Broncos rank 44th running the ball while BG is ranked 114th against the run, and it's a 14 v 103 matchup in passer rating. I definitely think Western Michigan is the better team here.
 
7. Rutgers +21.5 @ Ohio State: You know, Rutgers is 5-1. They're actually a pretty good team. I realize that everyone just assumed that they'd bring up the rear in their first year in the Big Ten, but i don't think that's going to be the case, and they will almost certainly be taking up one the Big Ten's myriad of cannon fodder bowl slots. They've held their own against some pretty good offenses, and Gary Nova remains the 5th highest rated passer in the country. I don't really find any areas in which the Buckeyes are going to enjoy a mismatch in this one, and I think Nova will be able to move the ball on OSU. I also think that OSU is due for a clunker after 3 very sound performances, and the chances that Rutgers gets anywhere close to the Buckeyes best effort are very slim. If Rutgers comes in jacked up and avoids handing the Buckeyes points, the Knights have a shot at the outright in my opinion.


8. @Cal +7 v UCLA: Both teams are coming off forgettable performances last week, especially Cal who lost at home to a Washington team they were favorites against. These two teams' identities are very similar... both have slick offenses and shaky defenses who allow tons of yardage. In this game, both of the pass defenses figure to be as helpless as a baby adrift on a raft without a paddle or a nautical map against these offenses. Unlike UCLA, however, Cal has shown a pulse against the run and teams typically bounce back at home after a piss poor effort at home the week before. In a game between similar teams, I'll take the home team catching a TD off a shitty performance.
 
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9. Georgia -3.5 @Arkansas: I've become very impressed with Georgia. The individual parts don't look all that great, but the sum has been getting the job done since the hiccup at South Carolina. Their game against Missouri last week was a complete demolition, especially defensively. I think they still have some weaknesses in defending the passing game(who doesn't??) but the matchup with Arkansas's offense should be more to their liking. They rank 11th in the country in ypp against, and 10th in rushing defense. They've also done a great job running the ball offensively(luckily for them because Mason can't throw the ball downfield) and the Hogs have had all kinds of trouble stopping the run, last week against Bama surprisingly notwithstanding. I'm also hearing a lot of talking heads pointing to this one as a potential upset pick, so the Dawgs should be on full alert. Statistically, this one doesn't look all that close on paper, and I think Arkansas's defensive effort last week was an outlier, so I see a lot of value in only having to lay 3.5 here. I'd say to buy the 1/2 point, but the line is 4 in some spots, so that might not be available.


10. Oklahoma St +10 @ TCU: When you take a look at this game, the first thing that jumps out at you is how bad the Okie state offense has looked against some pretty mediocre and even downright bad competition the past 3 weeks. They staggered disinterestedly through their home games with Texas Tech and Iowa State and then were probably lucky to win at Kansas last week, having been outgained by the hapless, walrus-free Jayhawks. Going off of that, you'd expect the poor play to catch up with them this week on the road against a top 15 level opponent, but I learned long ago that if you fail to respect the coaching acumen of Mike Gundy, you will set fire to your wallet. Defensively,l this team has been good, and I think they will be good enough on both sides of the ball to be in this game with a chance to win at the gun. TCU is not the type of offensive juggernaut that blows teams out and they are coming off a mind-numbingly crushing loss last week. Also remember that Okie State had Florida State on the ropes in their first game with all these new faces back in August, so they definitely have it in them. They're 5-1, just like TCU, so they have their whole season in front of them and just as much to play for as the Frogs do. I think they'll surprise people and look like Oklahoma St is supposed to look this week.
 
Twink, Press, Dollaz, Cool, : Thanks!! :shake:

Stunna: Welcome aboard!

Timmy: Appreciate the kind words. I kind of wish everyone gave a little background on why they're playing a game. I do it so that if someone sees a flaw in the logic, they can let me know. As for K State, it's hard to go against Snyder in this role. He's been a covering machine as a dog and in conference. Like their defense as well.
 
Brass I think you're write up on K. State was spot on and keyed on a lot of the same reasons I like the game. Ford downgraded to doubtful for Ok and I think KSt will be able to defend the Ok running game effectively and like you I don't think Knight is that effective in the passing game. Love the KSt off the bye and extra preparation angle for Snyder too vs. Ok coming off a less than impressive win against rival Texas.
 
Damn...nice work on that avatar.^^^^^ Scared the shit out of me. Seriously. Can't let my 8 year old read this thread or he'll have nightmares.
 
11. Miami(OH) +14(buy) v Northern Illinois: The Huskies are struggling right now, and the Miami(OH) arrow is pointing up in my opinion. In the past two weeks, NIU's defense has allowed drastically above average offensive results for the opponents they played. Both Kent State and Central Michigan had their best offensive outputs of the year, especially in the passing game. After a slow start, Miami has settled into their own passing game, with previously noodle-armed Notre Dame transfer Andrew Hendrix throwing for 352 yards on a solid pass defense in Akron last week. The week before that he had 400+ and a 4/0 ratio, albeit against UMass. Looking at some of the numbers NIU has surrendered against poor competition, I think Hendrix will have a good amount of success. Offensively, NIU has been just ok. I think they'll have a fight on their hands, so I'll gladly take 2 TDs.


12. Colorado +21 @ USC: In my opinion, USC just can't be trusted to cover a spread like this against any competent team, and so far this year, Colorado has been pretty competent, especially offensively. Steve Sarkisian will tell you himself that he would like to play faster on offense, but when he faces a no huddle up tempo offense, he hesitates to do so because he has no depth on defense. That is going to be a problem this week because Colorado is very up tempo on offense, averaging 87 plays a game this year. Offensively, they've been very good, and though they'll need some breaks defensively to have a chance at the end, I think they'll do enough offensively to keep this one close. The Buffs have also covered 5 of their last 6 conference games, so they're gaining confidence each week. Mike McIntyre knows what he's doing in my opinion, and this is a huge game for their program. It's hard for a team like USC to get up for a team like Colorado, regardless of how much their coach tries to convince them the Buffs are the second coming of the '85 Bears.
 
13. Missouri +5.5 @Florida: Missouri can't possibly be as bad as they looked last week. How bad were they last week? I was keeping an eye on that game, and probably turned it on 15-20 times, flipping around between 3 or 4 games. I never saw Mizzou run an offensive play. In fact, I'm not even sure that they ran any plays, and based on the box score, that wasn't too far from the truth. Having said all that, they certainly aren't THAT bad, and have shown the resilience to bounce back in recent years. Defensively they are stout, and able to generate pressure without blitzing. Florida's offense is going to struggle mightily as usual, and believe it or not, Maty Mauk and company will be catching some class relief facing one of the worst pass defenses in the SEC. This one will come down to the wire, much like Mizzou's game with South Carolina a few weeks ago. Mizzou has also been a significantly better road team this year. I'll take the points here, as the favorite is going to have a hell of a time scoring and the dog will have a chip on their shoulder.


14. Notre Dame +10 @Florida State: I've been skeptical of Florida State all year, so there's no reason to stop now. Both of these QBs have never lost a regular season game in their college careers. In a situation like that, if the teams have statistically played to a standstill for the year, and you're getting double digits with one of them, it's probably a good idea to take the points. FSU better hope that Winston is on his game because I don't think they'll be able to run the ball a lick in this game, and ND has a distinct edge over FSU when they have the ball in the passing game as well. Don't read too much into ND's shitty performance last week against UNC, it was the mother of all sandwich spots coming off the Stanford game and looking ahead to this one. FSU has not shown any evidence that they are anywhere near the team that they were last year, but they're still getting lined like they are. Lots of value with the double digit dog here.


15. Washington +21 @Oregon: This one will be worth watching because the Ducks are going retro with the Kelly Green and Yellow combo from the mid 90's. That should be cool. Also, I think Washington's defense is good enough to keep them in this one. Their front 7 has been a menace to just about everyone they've played, especially last week in Berkeley, where they terrorized a Cal offense that had been tearing people to shreds prior to that. Shaq Thompson and company have also been good for a defensive TD just about every week Although their offense has not been electric by any means, Washington has only 1 turnover for the entire year, so they haven't been killing themselves. While Washington might not bring a winning formula to the table this week, they certainly have a recipe for a +21 cover, and Chris Petersen's previous success against this Oregon offense can't be overlooked.
 
Others that I couldn't quite pull the trigger on

: I've got a feeling that UTSA (+12) is much more suited in this role than they were the past couple weeks as DD favorite. la Tech isn't bad, but they still don't set the world on fire offensively.....

As bad as Clemson looked last week, I really should be all over BC +5 at home against them, but Clemson's defense has been stellar this year, and I still get the shakes remembering some of the plays Tyler what's his nuts made last year when I was backing Florida. BC is definitely the value side there, IMO, even after the line drop from +7....It's the square play of the year, but Texas A&M is totally due for a nice performance. Kevin Sumlin doesn't get whipsawed like that 3 weeks in a row. Bama is kind of a mess right now as well. If they straighten things out though, the Aggies could give up some BIG points. That's my hesitation here, but 14 is a lot of points.....

I think Ole Miss is definitely due for a clunker, and this is a robust upset opportunity for Tennessee(+17). They definitely have the defense to harass Bo Wallace into one of his virtuoso shitty games, but I really question their ability to score on Ole Miss, even on Ole Miss's worst day. 17 is a lot of points though, and I doubt UT gets their best shot....

I also think Iowa State(+12.5) is undervalued this week. Everyone has fallen in love with Texas after their dominating performance in a losing cause against Oklahoma, but I think Iowa State will be competitive in this game. Their opponents have a combined 30-6 record (with two of the losses coming at the hands of the Clones) and they've hung in there offensively. Don't forget that this Texas offense, though improving, is far from a juggernaut....

The world is on Kentucky, but don't be surprised if LSU turns in a nice performance. This is actually class relief for the Tigers, as they've already played Wisconsin, Mississippi State, Auburn and at Florida. That's a pretty far cry from what KY has gone up against. That's too many points to lay though....
 
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