Week 7 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Had a 10-6-1 week last week, which I will take, but if you waited a few minutes after I wrote up the TT play you could have gotten 10.5 and even 11. I'd also submit that Oklahoma State, for those who pay close attention to win expectancy, had the worst post game win expectancy of anyone who won last week. Not only did they win, but they covered 9 despite that. Keep an eye on QB Behren Morton from Texas Tech. He made his first start in that game and was banged up during it, but still threw the ball well and toughed out a great performance even in defeat. The season long total improved to 45-44 with a few pushes, so what do you know??? We're just about as good as a coin flip! Still a long way to go to make his whole exercise worthwhile, but it's progress.

As for this week, I'm gonna start by commenting on the Illinois/Minnesota game. As most of you probably know, I'm an Illini alum and I follow the program closely, but I never, under any circumstances give out a play on the Illini. If I don't like them in a given week I'll play against them, but a combination emotional loss as well as a pocket book loss would be too much for me to take so I never do it. If I had no bias however, I would be on them this week. The last I saw, this line reached 7, which really is remarkable. I like Minnesota as much as the next guy...I'm a big fan of their passing attack under Kirk Cirocca's tutelage, and they are well coached on defense, b ut this line has gotten out of control in my opinion. Like everyone else, I think Art Sitkowski is a very below average quarterback, and he did everything he could to give away the game with Iowa last week, but this Illinois defense is legit. I understand they've played some weak offenses, but nobody has gotten anything going against them and they haven't given up a TD at home in 4 full games. Last year they held Minnesota to 6 points in Minneapolis, and the defense is better. Granted Mo Ibrahim didn't play last year, but even without him, the Minnesota running backs were effective in most games last year. Not this year. As bad as Sitkowski is, Illinois won with him under center at Penn State, at home against Nebraska and last week against Iowa. Also Minny is ranked only 53rd against the run, which as I mentioned in Hunt and BAR's Big Ten thread is quite alarming considering the rush offenses they've played, and Chase Brown is the nation's leading rusher. The only decent defense they've played is Purdue, and they were held to 10 points in that one. I know Ibrahim is a big difference maker, but Illinois has been great at stopping the run. 7 just seems to be way too much in my opinion. If Minnesota covers that, they will have either played a perfect game, or Illinois got hit with horrific turnover luck. (Not out of the question, given our history.)

Kansas +9 LOSS Well, Gabriel worth an extra 600 yards I guess.
Penn State +7 LOSS They only were outgained by 300 and out first downed 28-10. Not a bad play, right?
Iowa State +15.5 WIN
Kent +7.5 LOSS Looked good early though!!
Tennessee +8.5 WIN
Oklahoma State +4.5 WIN
James Madison -12.5 LOSS
Wisconsin -6.5 LOSS Is it possible to gain less than 250 yards against this MSU defense?? Yes!!
LSU +3 WIN
Southern Miss -4.5 LOSS I forced this one.
East Carolina -5.5 LOSS I forced this one also
Florida State +5 LOSS FSU forgets how to play football for significant stretches.
Kentucky +3.5 WIN Thank you Chris Rodriguez.
Oregon State -3 WIN
San Jose State -8.5 LOSS No explanation for that one.


1. Kansas +9 @Oklahoma: Call me square, I don't give a shit. All I'm hearing is how the "sharps" are all over Oklahoma because Dylan Gabriel is back and because Jalon Daniels will be missing for Kansas, and the public is swooning over last week's results. The house of cards has to come crashing down for the Jayhawks, and this is a "get right" spot for the Sooners. Why is that? Because Oklahoma wishes to "get right"? Does it just happen for them? My guess is that in order to "get right" the Oklahoma coaching staff needs to motivate this weak ass group of prima donnas that have spent the last 3 games getting utterly embarrassed. They'll also have to figure out how to out-scheme Lance Leipold, a laughable thought, and something nobody has been able to do yet, even when he loses his starting QB. Last week, after Daniels went out, backup Jason Bean led the Jayhawks to a 540 yard offensive performance after pivoting on a dime and adjusting to the strengths of his QB. They outgained TCU by 100 yards in the process, a TCU team by the way that could have put up 900 yards and 70 points on this sad sack Oklahoma defense if it felt like it two weeks ago. Do people actually think Oklahoma will magically just show up competent after giving up an average of 587 per game over the last 3 weeks, against an offense that ranks in the top 10 in virtually every category? With Gabriel back, they'll be better on offense, but they better be, because Kansas is actually improving on defense too, having held TCU to their worst output of the year in total yards and yards per play. I'm apparently the square one, but shit, I guess I'm dumb enough to take 9 points against a team that has proven they can't stop a nosebleed.
 
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2. Penn State +7 @Michigan: When I line these two teams up against each other on paper, once I adjust for the schedules, I really don't see much difference between the two teams. Michigan looks fantastic on paper defensively, but I sure would hope so when they've played Colorado State, UConn and Hawaii. The only decent offensive squad they've played is Maryland, and the Terps put up 400 yards and 27 points on them. Offensively, something just seems off with JJ McCarthy and their passing game, and although they got Ronnie Bell back last week, they lost Roman Wilson last week and it looks like both he and TE Erick All are going to be unlikely to play this week. They've looked extremely reliant on Blake Corum in the run game, and since Penn State can cover in the secondary with future pros JiAyre Brown and Joey Porter Jr., they should be able to focus on stopping the run where they rank 11th in the country in yards per rush against. Offensively, Clifford is Clifford, but he has some nice weapons that have emerged with Singleton at RB and the transfer Tinsley in the passing game. Franklin has been reliable as a dog, so I'll take the 7 here in a game that i see going down to the wire.
 
Br@ssknux said:
2. Penn State +7 @Michigan: When I line these two teams up against each other on paper, once I adjust for the schedules, I really don't see much difference between the two teams. Michigan looks fantastic on paper defensively, but I sure would hope so when they've played Colorado State, UConn and Hawaii. The only decent offensive squad they've played is Maryland, and the Terps put up 400 yards and 27 points on them. Offensively, something just seems off with JJ McCarthy and their passing game, and although they got Ronnie Bell back last week, they lost Roman Wilson last week and it looks like both he and TE Erick All are going to be unlikely to play this week. They've looked extremely reliant on Blake Corum in the run game, and since Penn State can cover in the secondary with future pros JiAyre Brown and Joey Porter Jr., they should be able to focus on stopping the run where they rank 11th in the country in yards per rush against. Offensively, Clifford is Clifford, but he has some nice weapons that have emerged with Singleton at RB and the transfer Tinsley in the passing game. Franklin has been reliable as a dog, so I'll take the 7 here in a game that i see going down to the wire.
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Erick All likely out for season, fwiw. They been very quiet about this but that's been the likelihood..

Wild to me that Penn State, statistically is so bad against the pass with those guys back there.

Roman Wilson went out two weeks ago on a targeting that was not called. I believe he cleared protocol last week but they decided to leave him home. He should be back tomorrow.
 
B.A.R. said:
Erick All likely out for season, fwiw. They been very quiet about this but that's been the likelihood..

Wild to me that Penn State, statistically is so bad against the pass with those guys back there.

Roman Wilson went out two weeks ago on a targeting that was not called. I believe he cleared protocol last week but they decided to leave him home. He should be back tomorrow.
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Thanks for the update BAR. If he can go, I'm sure they'll have him in there for this one. Too bad about All. He's s stud.
 
3. Iowa State +15.5 @Texas: I'm sure I'm not the only guy who sees this as a tough situational spot for Texas, coming off such a fabulous win as they did last week with their demolition of Oklahoma. It's also hard to find a better buy low spot on Iowa State than where they currently stand, as the Clones are 0-3 in conference coming off a miserable 10-9 home loss to Kansas State. One thing is for sure with Iowa State though, they are solid on defense. That's evident both in the numbers (15th in yards per play, 7th against the run, 9th on third down) and the eye test, which was crystal clear when they completely shut down a Kansas offense 2 weeks ago that had mystified everyone they had played against previously. Matt Campbell is definitely in his element as a conference dog, especially double digits, as he's covered 10 out of his last 11 in that role. Texas has a road game with Oklahoma State on deck, and although Iowa State has been good, it's hard to muster up a top effort against a team that comes in at 0-3 for an 11AM kickoff. Great spot for Iowa State here, and again, I know I'm not the only genius who can figure this out. Iowa State is an auto play here.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Thanks for the update BAR. If he can go, I'm sure they'll have him in there for this one. Too bad about All. He's s stud.
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He is.

I was so happy, and shocked, that he came back.

Rumor has it he may return again. We'll see.

Best part of Erick All.... He had his first kid the morning of Mich season opener... The due date was 9 months after the UM OSU game.... :)
 
4. Kent +7.5 @Toledo: Lots of mea culpas here for me in this one. First, I've violated my "No MAC games" rule, and second, I have to admit I've been waiting to play this game ever since Toledo lost to San Diego State several weeks ago. My assumption was that I'd be getting only a couple points or would even have to lay a couple, but here we are getting more than a TD. That's mostly due to an unfortunate loss by Kent at Miami(OH) as well as some massive turnover luck for Toledo against Northern Illinois. It's well documented that Kent played what is probably the toughest non conference schedule in the country, traveling to Washington, Oklahoma and Georgia and actually showing out pretty well in those games, especially at Georgia, where they gave the Dawgs all they could handle. Toledo on the other hand has been feasting on patsies, and even got bullied around by one (SDSU) about a month ago. I think there's a huge edge on the coaching staffs with Kent, and Toledo is due disappoint those people who have bought in to their recent performances...something that seems to happen annually.
 
5. @Tennessee +8.5 v Alabama: Like many others I was burned by Alabama last week, and in the process, I learned a valuable lesson. Just because it seems like someone has a lot of motivation to run up a score doesn't mean they can. In my opinion, Nick Saban had every reason to maniacally motivate his team last week against Texas A&M, but it didn't matter because Jalen Milroe could not get their offense going against a defense that Mississippi State had whipsawed the previous week. It's also a mystery how Haynes King was able to play a largely effective, mistake free game and guide the Aggies to a chance to win on the last play. Anyone who has previously watched King play is still trying to figure out how that was allowed to happen. We've seen this twice now: and if Arkansas had any healthy players on defense, we might have seen 3 games that came down to the wire for the Tide. Hendon Hooker is light years better than Haynes KIng, and if King hade effective stretches against Bama last week, Hooker should have major success against that secondary. I'm assuming Bryce Young is back, but he's almost certainly less than 100%, and if Bama wants to be conservative and run it, Tennessee has very good advanced metrics numbers with their run defense, so Bama will have to throw it well to cover this.
 
Br@ssknux said:
3. Iowa State +15.5 @Texas Texas has a road game with Oklahoma State on deck, and although Iowa State has been good, it's hard to muster up a top effort against a team that comes in at 0-3 for an 11AM kickoff. Great spot for Iowa State here, and again, I know I'm not the only genius who can figure this out. Iowa State is an auto play here.
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I'd normally side with the logic as this is a nasty sandwich but Texas got embarrassed last year in Ames.

I expect them to play well tomorrow. We'll see what that translates into. Big # for sure.
 
6. Oklahoma State +4.5(-115) @TCU: Both of these teams are undefeated, and both kind of escaped last week in that they were both outgained by around 100 yards or more. When you look at the schedules of undefeated teams, sometimes it's helpful to see when the most likely slip up will be since we assume they won't go undefeated for the season, and frankly, this is a pretty good candidate for both teams. TCU is a juggernaut on offense, especially when running the ball (#1 in yards per carry) but Oklahoma State will be the best run defense they've faced. I have this game capped almost dead even, with maybe a slight edge to TCU, and the Frogs have been good to me this year, but I can't go against Mike Gundy in a situation like this, especially now that I can get 4.5 at a reasonable price. He's 7-1 as a road dog since 2018, and he covers at an almost 70% clip on the road overall. Also, I know that TCU is under a new regime, but the Frogs are 5-12 in their last 17 as a home favorite. Like I said, in a tossup, I'll grab a decent amount of points with a coach and program who constantly covers spreads in this role.
 
7. James Madison -12.5 @Georgia Southern: I've made the decision to ride the Dukes until they burn me, but even if I hadn't made that conscious decision, I would still be backing them here because I don't know that the oddsmakers or betting public looks at them as a top level Sun Belt team yet, which I do. GSU has been a nice story under Clay Helton because they've turned the narrative that you can't revamp an offense with option personnel and make it successful in year one upside down. They've been great on offense, mostly against terrible defenses. James Madison is not a terrible defense. On the contrary, you cannot run on them, which is actually GSU's bread and butter. They have good passing numbers, but it's built off their running game. The only decent defense they've played, UAB, was able to have success against them because other than a couple of huge chunk runs, they were controlled in standard downs, and GSU only averaged 4.0 yards per pass attempt when UAB knew they were throwing. Also, QB VanTrese for GSU has already thrown 11 picks, so JMU could feast on that if they know what's coming. GSU will not run on James Madison, who just happens to be #1 in the country against the run. If GSU scores 21 or so points like they did against UAB, they have absolutely no shot in this game because their own defense is among the worst in FBS, on par with the Arky State defense that QB Centaio and the JMU offense just dropped 598 yards on. Until JMU has to start covering spreads in the 20's I'm gonna be on them, and I'm pretty sure they'll be running and hiding from Southern in this one.
 
8. Wisconsin -6.5(-115) @Michigan State: Like others, I've been kind of waiting for Michigan State to show a pulse. I didn't play them, but I didn't fade them because I thought they might bounce back against Minnesota, and that was a disaster. Then I thought they might sneak up on Maryland, and they exited that game quiet as a church mouse. I think we know what we have now. It's a defense that can't cover anyone and an offense that doesn't have the running game to take pressure off of Payton Thorne. Wisconsin comes in apparently refreshed under Jim Leonhard, or at least they looked like it against Northwestern last week. Defensively, I expect water to find it's level with the Badgers, as their numbers and performance could only improve. Michigan State can actually compete against the run, so am I putting too many eggs in the Graham Mertz basket? Maybe, but this Michigan State pass defense is so bad I think Mertz can handle it. He's burned bad pass defenses before, and don't look now, but Wisconsin is ranked 15th in the nation in yards per pass attempt. I think it's wishful thinking to expect MSU to be something different than they've been, and there's a lot of evidence suggesting that Wisconsin can take care of business against teams like this for now. I'll take advantage of some MSU money that give me a chance to get under 7.
 
9. LSU +3(-115) @Florida: the ability to buy this one up to 3 solidifies this play for me. Anyone who watched Florida try to play offense against Missouri last week has to know that you cannot lay points with the Gators in this spot. If the defense has the athletes and reasonable scheme necessary to chase down Richardson or at least keep him contained in the pocket, it's very hard for the Gators to be successful on offense, especially against a competent run defense like LSU has. Florida's defense is also below par, ranking 113th against the run and 98th overall in yards per play against, not to mention 125th on 3rd down. Brian Kelly is very good in his career coming off a loss and I would expect a much better effort from LSU after that home debacle against Tennessee. I handicap LSU as the better team on paper despite my bad luck with them, so I'll take the points in this spot.
 
10. @Southern Miss -4.5 v Arkansas State: When I saw this line, I checked to see if there were any major injuries on USM because it looked low, and I couldn't find any. I'm not going to get into much detail here because my expectations of what USM is going to do in this game can't be justified based on their performance in the numbers so far this year. Basically, Arky State can't be trusted to come within 5 points on the road against any decent team with that defense that they have. Southern Miss has proven to be a resourceful team, having competed in games where they had to employ a wildcat only offense with almost no forward passing. They should have beaten a pretty good Liberty team in that scenario, and they actually did win at Tulane, a very solid squad that had beaten Kansas State the week before. Again, USM's numbers aren't great, but I would be very surprised if they don't take care the Red Wolves in this spot.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Had a 10-6-1 week last week, which I will take, but if you waited a few minutes after I wrote up the TT play you could have gotten 10.5 and even 11. I'd also submit that Oklahoma State, for those who pay close attention to win expectancy, had the worst post game win expectancy of anyone who won last week. Not only did they win, but they covered 9 despite that. Keep an eye on QB Behren Morton from Texas Tech. He made his first start in that game and was banged up during it, but still threw the ball well and toughed out a great performance even in defeat. The season long total improved to 45-44 with a few pushes, so what do you know??? We're just about as good as a coin flip! Still a long way to go to make his whole exercise worthwhile, but it's progress.

As for this week, I'm gonna start by commenting on the Illinois/Minnesota game. As most of you probably know, I'm an Illini alum and I follow the program closely, but I never, under any circumstances give out a play on the Illini. If I don't like them in a given week I'll play against them, but a combination emotional loss as well as a pocket book loss would be too much for me to take so I never do it. If I had no bias however, I would be on them this week. The last I saw, this line reached 7, which really is remarkable. I like Minnesota as much as the next guy...I'm a big fan of their passing attack under Kirk Cirocca's tutelage, and they are well coached on defense, b ut this line has gotten out of control in my opinion. Like everyone else, I think Art Sitkowski is a very below average quarterback, and he did everything he could to give away the game with Iowa last week, but this Illinois defense is legit. I understand they've played some weak offenses, but nobody has gotten anything going against them and they haven't given up a TD at home in 4 full games. Last year they held Minnesota to 6 points in Minneapolis, and the defense is better. Granted Mo Ibrahim didn't play last year, but even without him, the Minnesota running backs were effective in most games last year. Not this year. As bad as Sitkowski is, Illinois won with him under center at Penn State, at home against Nebraska and last week against Iowa. Also Minny is ranked only 53rd against the run, which as I mentioned in Hunt and BAR's Big Ten thread is quite alarming considering the rush offenses they've played, and Chase Brown is the nation's leading rusher. The only decent defense they've played is Purdue, and they were held to 10 points in that one. I know Ibrahim is a big difference maker, but Illinois has been great at stopping the run. 7 just seems to be way too much in my opinion. If Minnesota covers that, they will have either played a perfect game, or Illinois got hit with horrific turnover luck. (Not out of the question, given our history.)


1. Kansas +9 @Oklahoma: Call me square, I don't give a shit. All I'm hearing is how the "sharps" are all over Oklahoma because Dylan Gabriel is back and because Jalon Daniels will be missing for Kansas, and the public is swooning over last week's results. The house of cards has to come crashing down for the Jayhawks, and this is a "get right" spot for the Sooners. Why is that? Because Oklahoma wishes to "get right"? Does it just happen for them? My guess is that in order to "get right" the Oklahoma coaching staff needs to motivate this weak ass group of prima donnas that have spent the last 3 games getting utterly embarrassed. They'll also have to figure out how to out-scheme Lance Leipold, a laughable thought, and something nobody has been able to do yet, even when he loses his starting QB. Last week, after Daniels went out, backup Jason Bean led the Jayhawks to a 540 yard offensive performance after pivoting on a dime and adjusting to the strengths of his QB. They outgained TCU by 100 yards in the process, a TCU team by the way that could have put up 900 yards and 70 points on this sad sack Oklahoma defense if it felt like it two weeks ago. Do people actually think Oklahoma will magically just show up competent after giving up an average of 587 per game over the last 3 weeks, against an offense that ranks in the top 10 in virtually every category? With Gabriel back, they'll be better on offense, but they better be, because Kansas is actually improving on defense too, having held TCU to their worst output of the year in total yards and yards per play. I'm apparently the square one, but shit, I guess I'm dumb enough to take 9 points against a team that has proven they can't stop a nosebleed.
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Awesome! Let the Oklahoma- backing mainstream have it, Brassknux! HAHAHAHA!!!
 
11. @East Carolina -5.5 v Memphis: There's lots to like about ECU in my opinion here. They're coming off a tough loss at Tulane where they probably deserved better, having racked up 419 yards and outgaining the Green Wave only to score 9 total points in a 24-9 loss, dropping them to 3-3 on the year. Their two previous losses were heartbreakers at home to Navy and NC State. In both of those games, and like every game this year, the Pirates outgained their opponents. I think they know they are a better team than their 3-3 record shows, and they need this game badly to get them back on a bowl trajectory. Luckily for them, here comes Memphis and coach Ryan Silverfield, fresh off an inexplicable home loss to a dead Houston team that got up off the mat to knock them off with two TD's in about 30 seconds in the waning moments. So far in his career Silverfield has NEVER covered as a road dog, a perfect 0-8. Any chance I have to be on the right side of a trend like that, I'm going to take it.
 
Br@ssknux said:
3. Iowa State +15.5 @Texas: I'm sure I'm not the only guy who sees this as a tough situational spot for Texas, coming off such a fabulous win as they did last week with their demolition of Oklahoma. It's also hard to find a better buy low spot on Iowa State than where they currently stand, as the Clones are 0-3 in conference coming off a miserable 10-9 home loss to Kansas State. One thing is for sure with Iowa State though, they are solid on defense. That's evident both in the numbers (15th in yards per play, 7th against the run, 9th on third down) and the eye test, which was crystal clear when they completely shut down a Kansas offense 2 weeks ago that had mystified everyone they had played against previously. Matt Campbell is definitely in his element as a conference dog, especially double digits, as he's covered 10 out of his last 11 in that role. Texas has a road game with Oklahoma State on deck, and although Iowa State has been good, it's hard to muster up a top effort against a team that comes in at 0-3 for an 11AM kickoff. Great spot for Iowa State here, and again, I know I'm not the only genius who can figure this out. Iowa State is an auto play here.
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I agree and played this one on Sunday. I would also point out that Campbell vs. Texas is 6-0 to the under by an average of 24 points, with his teams winning the last three straight up. I also think the under might be worth a look, although Campbell has produced some easy overs when ha's coming off a game that went way under. Horns lost 30-7 last year (plus two more before that), so I'm not playing this for situational factors. It's more of a power ratings play.
 
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I played five games this week, Clem, Tenn, Illinois, Wisc, and Iowa State. I'm glad to see you like four of them. I may add JMU -- nice writeup on that one. Perhaps a KU moneyline play is in the offing as well.
 
Br@ssknux said:
4. Kent +7.5 @Toledo: Lots of mea culpas here for me in this one. First, I've violated my "No MAC games" rule, and second, I have to admit I've been waiting to play this game ever since Toledo lost to San Diego State several weeks ago. My assumption was that I'd be getting only a couple points or would even have to lay a couple, but here we are getting more than a TD. That's mostly due to an unfortunate loss by Kent at Miami(OH) as well as some massive turnover luck for Toledo against Northern Illinois. It's well documented that Kent played what is probably the toughest non conference schedule in the country, traveling to Washington, Oklahoma and Georgia and actually showing out pretty well in those games, especially at Georgia, where they gave the Dawgs all they could handle. Toledo on the other hand has been feasting on patsies, and even got bullied around by one (SDSU) about a month ago. I think there's a huge edge on the coaching staffs with Kent, and Toledo is due disappoint those people who have bought in to their recent performances...something that seems to happen annually.
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I haven't really capped this game, but as someone who won with Ohio vs. Kent and Buff v. Miami two weeks ago and won a moneyline play on Miami over Kent last week, I "feel" that this is the correct side. I may play it as well.
 
12. @Florida State +5 v Clemson: When I saw this line at 3.5, I figured I would like Clemson, but ultimately, all I found was pretty good evidence that the line was where it should be, and then some. First of all, that line was pretty much begging you to take Clemson, and whenever that happens, you have to be skeptical. On paper, FSU has few weaknesses. Last week's late meltdown against NC State by Jordan Travis was completely out of character for him this year, and believe it or not, I think you can make a case that he's playing a weaker defense this week, at least in the secondary. If they target the heck out of Johnny Wilson, I think the Noles will have plenty of success. Clemson's offense has been good, and DJ Uiagaelele has been way better than expected, but here's another tough road environment for them to deal with. I'm not completely sold that he and this Clemson offense is completely out of the woods. I have this as a tossup on paper, and I think the assumption that Clemson is over the hump and entrenched as the 4th playoff team is a bit premature. Now that I can get 4.5 or even 5(which I just snapped up), I'm a player on the Noles.
 
13. @Kentucky +3.5 v Mississippi State: Kentucky burned me last week with a terrible effort against South Carolina, but it looks like Will Levis will be back this week so I'll go back to the well with them. Mississippi State is a favorite of mine under Leach and they've been good to me two weeks in a row but this is not a good spot for them. They are a great road dog and a solid favorite at home, but this is not a comfortable spot for Leach. They proved that when they were beaten handily by an LSU team that's inferior to them, and i think Kentucky will be in a good position to make it tough on them this week. Kentucky plays good pass defense so they will likely make the Bulldogs embark on long drives to score. Also, it's a terrible look ahead spot for Mississippi State as Bama comes into Starkville next week. If Leach takes care of business here I'll tip my hat, but Kentucky appears live to me in this spot.
 
14. @Oregon State -3 v Washington State: The line has come down a bit to where I think the Beavers are a good play here. Bit of a revenge spot for the Beavs as they went into Washington State last year as a favorite and got shellacked. That shouldn't have been surprising since they almost never cover as a road favorite, but now they are back in their preferred role. Smith is 7-1 as a home favorite since he got the job in 2018 The Beavers aren't great against the run, but they are good against the pass which is a good matchup for them against this Cougar offense which can't run it well and doesn't even really try to do it. Although Nolan and his backup Gulbranson have been careless with picks, they are 24th in yards per attempt and have moved the ball well through the air and we know their forte is the running game, The Cougs have struggled against the pass so I think they'll find a comfort level at home to settle in and play well offensively. Bottom line is I trust Smith here, and I think the Beavs can cover this reasonable number.
 
15. San Jose State -7(-116) @Fresno State: Who would've guessed in the preseason that San Jose State would be a 7 point road favorite over Fresno State in mid October? Better yet, who would guess that I'd be all over playing it? Not me, but here I am. Jake Haener's injury for Fresno has been a disaster. The rest of the squad has been exposed as a result, and the backup Logan Fife has been the main culprit, as he hasn't thrown a TD pass yet this year. They gained only 187 yards in their recent trip to UCONN. Read that sentence again. Now reflect on it. The Spartans have a significant edge in every statistical category hen you line these two teams up on paper. I probably would be looking to fade the Bulldogs regardless of who they were playing this week, but SJSU is has actually established themselves as a solid squad, and should be considered a favorite for the MW title. They're 36th in yards per play on offense and 9th in yards per play on defense. They completely took apart a pretty solid UNLV team their last time out to the tune of a 220 yard edge and did the same thing to Western Michigan and Wyoming the two weeks before that. If Fresno gets more than about 220 total yards in this one I'll be surprised. It's a crazy looking line, but it' actually a major bargain if you ask me. SJSU is undoubtedly the much better team as long as Haener is out, and you could make a case that they would be even if he were playing.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Had a 10-6-1 week last week, which I will take, but if you waited a few minutes after I wrote up the TT play you could have gotten 10.5 and even 11. I'd also submit that Oklahoma State, for those who pay close attention to win expectancy, had the worst post game win expectancy of anyone who won last week. Not only did they win, but they covered 9 despite that. Keep an eye on QB Behren Morton from Texas Tech. He made his first start in that game and was banged up during it, but still threw the ball well and toughed out a great performance even in defeat. The season long total improved to 45-44 with a few pushes, so what do you know??? We're just about as good as a coin flip! Still a long way to go to make his whole exercise worthwhile, but it's progress.

As for this week, I'm gonna start by commenting on the Illinois/Minnesota game. As most of you probably know, I'm an Illini alum and I follow the program closely, but I never, under any circumstances give out a play on the Illini. If I don't like them in a given week I'll play against them, but a combination emotional loss as well as a pocket book loss would be too much for me to take so I never do it. If I had no bias however, I would be on them this week. The last I saw, this line reached 7, which really is remarkable. I like Minnesota as much as the next guy...I'm a big fan of their passing attack under Kirk Cirocca's tutelage, and they are well coached on defense, b ut this line has gotten out of control in my opinion. Like everyone else, I think Art Sitkowski is a very below average quarterback, and he did everything he could to give away the game with Iowa last week, but this Illinois defense is legit. I understand they've played some weak offenses, but nobody has gotten anything going against them and they haven't given up a TD at home in 4 full games. Last year they held Minnesota to 6 points in Minneapolis, and the defense is better. Granted Mo Ibrahim didn't play last year, but even without him, the Minnesota running backs were effective in most games last year. Not this year. As bad as Sitkowski is, Illinois won with him under center at Penn State, at home against Nebraska and last week against Iowa. Also Minny is ranked only 53rd against the run, which as I mentioned in Hunt and BAR's Big Ten thread is quite alarming considering the rush offenses they've played, and Chase Brown is the nation's leading rusher. The only decent defense they've played is Purdue, and they were held to 10 points in that one. I know Ibrahim is a big difference maker, but Illinois has been great at stopping the run. 7 just seems to be way too much in my opinion. If Minnesota covers that, they will have either played a perfect game, or Illinois got hit with horrific turnover luck. (Not out of the question, given our history.)


1. Kansas +9 @Oklahoma: Call me square, I don't give a shit. All I'm hearing is how the "sharps" are all over Oklahoma because Dylan Gabriel is back and because Jalon Daniels will be missing for Kansas, and the public is swooning over last week's results. The house of cards has to come crashing down for the Jayhawks, and this is a "get right" spot for the Sooners. Why is that? Because Oklahoma wishes to "get right"? Does it just happen for them? My guess is that in order to "get right" the Oklahoma coaching staff needs to motivate this weak ass group of prima donnas that have spent the last 3 games getting utterly embarrassed. They'll also have to figure out how to out-scheme Lance Leipold, a laughable thought, and something nobody has been able to do yet, even when he loses his starting QB. Last week, after Daniels went out, backup Jason Bean led the Jayhawks to a 540 yard offensive performance after pivoting on a dime and adjusting to the strengths of his QB. They outgained TCU by 100 yards in the process, a TCU team by the way that could have put up 900 yards and 70 points on this sad sack Oklahoma defense if it felt like it two weeks ago. Do people actually think Oklahoma will magically just show up competent after giving up an average of 587 per game over the last 3 weeks, against an offense that ranks in the top 10 in virtually every category? With Gabriel back, they'll be better on offense, but they better be, because Kansas is actually improving on defense too, having held TCU to their worst output of the year in total yards and yards per play. I'm apparently the square one, but shit, I guess I'm dumb enough to take 9 points against a team that has proven they can't stop a nosebleed.
Click to expand...
Great write-up, whether you bought the point or not.
 
6-9 week, and that includes a straight 0-5 on non power 5 games. If I went back and looked over the past couple of years, I'll bet I'm well under .500 when I go in that direction. Just a bad week. Back at it next week.

In all seriousness, if you see me write up any games on non power 5 conferences, more specifically non-NIU MAC, just fade it, because it's just me being undisciplined and reaching for whatever reason.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
3. Iowa State +15.5 @Texas: I'm sure I'm not the only guy who sees this as a tough situational spot for Texas, coming off such a fabulous win as they did last week with their demolition of Oklahoma. It's also hard to find a better buy low spot on Iowa State than where they currently stand, as the Clones are 0-3 in conference coming off a miserable 10-9 home loss to Kansas State. One thing is for sure with Iowa State though, they are solid on defense. That's evident both in the numbers (15th in yards per play, 7th against the run, 9th on third down) and the eye test, which was crystal clear when they completely shut down a Kansas offense 2 weeks ago that had mystified everyone they had played against previously. Matt Campbell is definitely in his element as a conference dog, especially double digits, as he's covered 10 out of his last 11 in that role. Texas has a road game with Oklahoma State on deck, and although Iowa State has been good, it's hard to muster up a top effort against a team that comes in at 0-3 for an 11AM kickoff. Great spot for Iowa State here, and again, I know I'm not the only genius who can figure this out. Iowa State is an auto play here.
Click to expand...

Nice call. Horns up 10 2H and with the ball, thinking they were going to take the game over. Not so much. Gritty effort by Iowa State.
 
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