Week 7 Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Oct 17 Mon 2022

07:15 PM
275Denver Broncos+4½
-112
+185O 45½
-110
276Los Angeles Chargers+23 Markets-4½
-108
-215U 45½
-110
Oct 20 Thu 2022

07:15 PM
303New Orleans Saints+1½
-110
O 44½
-110
304Arizona Cardinals+1 Markets-1½
-110
U 44½
-110
Oct 23 Sun 2022

12:00 PM
453New York Giants+2½
+107
O 42½
-110
454Jacksonville Jaguars+1 Markets-2½
-127
U 42½
-110
12:00 PM
455Indianapolis Colts+2½
-113
O 42½
-110
456Tennessee Titans+1 Markets-2½
-107
U 42½
-110
07:20 PM
473Pittsburgh Steelers+6½
-105
O 45
-110
474Miami Dolphins+1 Markets-6½
-115
U 45
-110
Oct 24 Mon 2022

07:15 PM
475Chicago Bears+7½
-115
O 40
-110
476New England Patriots-7½
-105
U 40
-110
 
Last edited:
Giants being dogged at Jacksonville stood out to me. A lot of people will probably just automatically feel inclined to take the 5-1 underdog, but maybe that's the right move, anyways... I don't think the famous Florida heat and humidity is a thing in mid-October? and in what other meaningful way would home field matter in Jacksonville?
 
Biggest line moves per DK from Sunday AM to Monday AM are Chiefs from 1.5 to 3 & Pats from 6.5 to 7.5.

Pats movement is obvious, Chi sucks & Pats looked good/Browns looked bad but Pats recipients of 4 TO's. The hook on that game is tough. Total was 38.5 now 40. Lean points with such a low total.

SF outgained ATL, more 1st downs but lost where it counts & had three TO's. I feel the line move was an over adjustment.

Not sure I can bet another fave again this year. GB down to 5 from 6, I don't trust those fucks. Wonder what the preseason line was on that game, even two weeks ago before the GB London game. Had to be at least 8.
 
As Gandy noted elsewhere, good week to rake the leaves. We have the two best current teams on byes...

Anyways, some quick rambling from myself...

First 6 games on the board are all HOME favorites...

Great road win for the Bengals last week. They get a Falcons team off a big win. Good spot here to look at a TT perhaps, even a solid tease/ml parlay pic with Cincy imo...

Saints dogged on the road in Zona? Interesting. Arizona is not good at all. They are stuck with a bad head coach too. Now, they are getting some help at WR. Kyler has had limited options all year. With that being said, scoring single-digits versus Seattle is quite embarrassing. Thursday night game, so those are always unpredictable.

As I noted over the weekend, I played Dallas -7 versus the Detroit Lions as a look ahead line. This is not a good matchup for my guys at all. I'll get more into the injuries as the week goes on. I like our OL, but Dallas will still feast here and get that passing game going with Dak back. This reeks of 35-20 or so.

The Giants and Jags is a fun little game. I had a feeling Jacksonville would get things back together last week. Obviously, that was a heart-breaking loss but they looked better. The Giants just play hard. I believe the injuries are starting to let up a little as well. A healthy Saquon helps so much plus Danny is just a competitor. My gut here says that the G-men lose a bit of steam here and drop this one. Still looking...feeling out...

The Colts and Titan's games are always pretty fun, right @ProV1Colt ? Injuries need to be looked at here, no doubt. I don't have much to think about here yet.

The Modell Bowl in Baltimore renews once more. The Browns got jail-sexed last week in painful fashion. Baltimore with a tough loss up in New Jersey as well. We'll see a lot of running here. This is the type of game I think we find something good at halftime TT-wise.

Okay, our first road favorite, and we'll go right to double-digits for this one -- Bucs and Panthers.. New coach in Carolina, same results out in Los Angeles. I do not have a firm grip of this team right now. In fact, who knows what to expect from the Bucs right now. This is a very tough cap right now. Low total here.

Green Bay heads to Washington DC to play the Football team that resides there. Week to week right now, the Packers are a quandary. Wentz is out for the DC club. This SHOULD be a get-well game for Rodgers and company. You can actually get their TT at a decent price with this low total. This is another game I feel like live betting to be honest.

Who are these NY Jets @scarf31 ?? Impressive team so far. They play hard and are winning games. Well-deserved for the fanbase. We know what the Donks are at this point. A very offensively challenged team with a helluva defense. The line indicates that the Jets would be a short favorite on a neutral field. That is fair enough and might be a bit short to be honest.

Big game for the Raiders @guaranteeed . This is basically a must win for any chance to keep this season alive. Two trips to the southeast follow this game against 2-4 teams that are better than their records indicate. I don't know what to make of Houston. They are a non-playoff team. The schedule has included games versus two horrible offenses (CHI, DEN), a tie to the Colts and somehow beat the Jags in a 13-6 thriller.

Super Bowl 2020 rematch in Santa Clara (don't want to talk about it). The Niners previous two weeks have been playing in the southeast part of the country. I'm still looking at this box a bit from last week...

Atlanta had TD drives of 11,11 and 9 plays (all 65-75 yards). The score was 21-14 and half and 28-14 with 8+ mins left in the 3rd quarter. Overall, SF had more ypp and overall yards. Why did they only run the ball 16 times though? I don't feel like they needed to abandon their gameplan that early? Just odd to me. Jeff Wilson has been very good this year, but they lose faith after a fumble.

Anyways, Chiefs off a loss at home to the AFC' best team, the Buffalo Bills. Kansas City looks brilliant at times and others times just 'off'. Hill is definitely missed. They are still an upper-echelon team, but this isn't the same team of the last 3-4 years. I won't doubt them going on a run though in January.

As far as this game goes, i have absolutely no clue. Contrasting styles, should be fun.

Monday night had to be frustrating for Herbert. He has very little time due to the line injuries and young guys in. He faced a stiff Broncos defense and wasn't allowed to throw to Mike Williams (notice they finally did and probably should have earlier). Enter Seattle, a team not known for defense at all. They have been a pleasant surprise this year so far, post Russ Wilson era. I think this is a "get well" game for Justin. He'll have a bit more time. I think they do rest Keenan Allen again with a bye coming up. No reason not to get those two weeks. Either way, I'll be peeking a TT of some sort. The overall total is high, that happens in Seattle games.

Steelers head to Miami to showcase their talents for @~Utah who I believe will be in attendance. Protocol for Pickett...shall see... Tua should be back, right? He was cleared last week but they sat him (no surprise with how things were handled). Not much to cap here till we know all the participants. Miami has this home game, then road games @Detroit and @ Chicago. Sitting at 3-3, if they want to be a contender, they need to sweep these (2-1 I guess, bit of a letdown).

If this was 1985, I might be interested in MNF. Good lord, why are we being subjected to so many Bears and Broncos primetime games? This is absolute punishment. Chime in on this more next Monday.
 
Falcons 6-0 vs spread but 2 of those on the road (LAR and TB they were down 28-3 and 21-0 before rallying to cover)

They lost 3 corners in the SF but AJ Terrell should be back for Cincy.

Not sure I like this matchup for the Falcons. Can't see them slowing down Burrow and Co.

I already played Cincy -3.5 1h.
 
Falcons 6-0 vs spread but 2 of those on the road (LAR and TB they were down 28-3 and 21-0 before rallying to cover)

They lost 3 corners in the SF but AJ Terrell should be back for Cincy.

Not sure I like this matchup for the Falcons. Can't see them slowing down Burrow and Co.

I already played Cincy -3.5 1h.
Good to hear.
 
Appreciate it.

A lot of rambling, but a solid exercise to get me thinking for the week.
Really important to read the injury list with players dropping like flies at key positions. NFL is heading down a path where they might need to carry bigger rosters and add a 2nd bye week. They’re ultimately striving to get the Super Bowl on that 3 day weekend via 18 games but adding 1 more game could really damage the quality of play for its most meaningful game.
 
Really important to read the injury list with players dropping like flies at key positions. NFL is heading down a path where they might need to carry bigger rosters and add a 2nd bye week. They’re ultimately striving to get the Super Bowl on that 3 day weekend via 18 games but adding 1 more game could really damage the quality of play for its most meaningful game.
Last year there were rumors floating around that they were thinking about a rule that requires everyone to sit for two games. Can't remember the nuts and bolts, might have just been QBs but think it was every player.

I wouldn't be opposed to it.
 
Falcons get zero respect from oddsmakers despite being a covering machine !
Gamblers simply haven't been backing them, oddsmakers are capping us, not the Falcons

Think that's beginning to change though. Enough Atlanta money to move from 7 to 6.5 this week is significant.
 
Really important to read the injury list with players dropping like flies at key positions. NFL is heading down a path where they might need to carry bigger rosters and add a 2nd bye week. They’re ultimately striving to get the Super Bowl on that 3 day weekend via 18 games but adding 1 more game could really damage the quality of play for its most meaningful game.
If the NFL wants Thursday Night Football the answer is insert another bye week. Simple.
 
it's so logical, it's insane that they haven't done it yet. Give every team playing a bye before their TNF game = 1) better TNF product every week 2) healthier teams/better game quality across the season 3) longer NFL season, $$
Playing on Sunday then Thursday is the penultimate concept of the machine trying to reel in billions while not giving a shit about players and their health.

The whole thing is smoke and mirrors. Concussion protocol...can see every owner in the league cringe at those two words.
 
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the CFL has 3 byes for each team. Wonder what a comparison of injury statistics would show as far as the number of games missed compared to the average in the NFL?
 
it's so logical, it's insane that they haven't done it yet. Give every team playing a bye before their TNF game = 1) better TNF product every week 2) healthier teams/better game quality across the season 3) longer NFL season, $$

I been saying for years that the only way they should play this bs Thursday game. As @KJ said tho, they don’t give a shit bout players health or the fans, they will keep shoveling shit and ppl will keep begging for another serving.
 
  • Like
Reactions: KJ
Back
Top