Week 6 Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Oct 13 Thu 2022

07:15 PM
105Washington Commanders+1
-110		O 39½
-110
106Chicago Bears+1 Markets-1
-110		U 39½
-110
Oct 16 Sun 2022

12:00 PM
251Tampa Bay Buccaneers-7½
-113		O 43
-110
252Pittsburgh Steelers+1 Markets+7½
-107		U 43
-110
12:00 PM
255Jacksonville Jaguars+1½
-110		O 41
-110
256Indianapolis Colts+1 Markets-1½
-110		U 41
-110
12:00 PM
257New England Patriots+2½
-103		O 42½
-110
258Cleveland Browns+1 Markets-2½
-117		U 42½
-110
12:00 PM
259New York Jets+7
+105		O 44½
-110
260Green Bay Packers+1 Markets-7
-125		U 44½
-110
12:00 PM
265San Francisco 49ers-6
-113		O 42½
-110
266Atlanta Falcons+1 Markets+6
-107		U 42½
-110
03:05 PM
267Carolina Panthers+9
-110		O 41½
-110
268Los Angeles Rams+1 Markets-9
-110		U 41½
-110
03:05 PM
269Arizona Cardinals-2½
-115		O 51½
-105
270Seattle Seahawks+1 Markets+2½
-105		U 51½
-115
03:25 PM
271Buffalo Bills-1½
-110		O 54
-110
272Kansas City Chiefs+1 Markets+1½
-110		U 54
-110
07:20 PM
273Dallas Cowboys+5½
-110		O 43½
-110
274Philadelphia Eagles-5½
-110		U 43½
-110
Oct 17 Mon 2022

07:15 PM
275Denver Broncos+6
-110		O 46
-110
276Los Angeles Chargers-6
-110		U 46
-110
 
Vikes are still my #2 team but I'm not convinced yet. I'll gladly take the 3 with the home team. Feel like if Miami won yesterday this would be closer to a pick em.
 
Zeke said:
Vikes are still my #2 team but I'm not convinced yet. I'll gladly take the 3 with the home team. Feel like if Miami won yesterday this would be closer to a pick em.
Click to expand...
Guess we assume Teddy will be starting, we still don't know a thing about how he performs with this team.
 
I'm probably just going to talk about the Bills all week. Bills/Chiefs total lined at 54.

Bills defense despite injuries have been playing great ball. Haven't allowed over 21 all season. Dare I say they are still an underrated D as Allen gets all the attention. Huge part of their success so far has been the ability to pressure the QB without having to bring blitzes. They got by rotating corners in as Poyer went down & Benford was injured. Rookie Elam lost the starting job to Benford but now has seen way more of the field along with Jaquan Johnson. It's going to hard to hide a liability in the secondary vs an all time great qb. The front four has dominated and our LB play has been great too- outside of a couple plays like Milano dropping a pick 6 @Miami. This is a different type of game.

I think the cbs get exposed @KC. Elam had a pick but if you watched nearly every completion was on him. 10 catches 100+ yards. That's not a good sign when traveling to Arrowhead. Going to have to have Poyer in the lineup or Buffalo won't win. Really would like Benford back as well. My concern with Mahomes is obvious, but he creates enough time for coverage to break down and hoping a second rookie corner can play is a scary thought.

Could see a game where it's close and one team tries controlling the clock and grinding it down, but there is absolutely NO WAY I'd consider the under. The o-line is playing well & injuries have allowed some players down the depth chart to see playing time. I think it pays dividends later in the season. I think Shakir will end up being a better all around wr than Gabe Davis, but rn Gabe is that home run hitter you need alongside Diggs. They'll need KNox in vs the Chiefs, seems like he may have been rested lw just to be ready. Hasn't done much yet but he got paid for a reason.

I think this potentially very very public play cashes
 
Personally, I think the Bills are the better team. Howeverrrrr…. This line is ass. KC does get a more traditional 3 points for home field as does Buffalo. Are we honestly saying Buffalo is -5.5 on a neutral and -8.5 at home vs KC?
 
Minnesota was just favored by 7.5 over the Bears. This line implies the Dolphins with Teddy are worse than the Bears. And that Balt would lay over 10 at home against the Giants. Ehhh.

Not saying these can’t cash but I feel like the line is off on these and the market will settle a little less on all.
 
Capaholic said:
Minnesota was just favored by 7.5 over the Bears. This line implies the Dolphins with Teddy are worse than the Bears. And that Balt would lay over 10 at home against the Giants. Ehhh.

Not saying these can’t cash but I feel like the line is off on these and the market will settle a little less on all.
Click to expand...
is Teddy even able to go? Another concussion for their qb right?
 
Few thoughts...

Cap already commented a bit on some of these lines being a bit confusing...

Thursday will be awful, but still will be better than what we saw last week on TNF...

The Nawlins defense versus the Cincy OL will be interesting... fun cap for our inner nerd...

Indy isn't very good, this is a type of game the Jags need to win to show they are taking that next incremental step...

Pretty hefty tariff in New Jersey for the Ravens with that defense. As someone said last week, the Giants just play HARD. The fact they are scoring even in the 20's at times is wild to me with the receivers they are throwing out there...

As noted with Minnesota above, interesting line. Obviously, we need to know full Miami QB situation...

Niners right back to the East Coast... did they go home this week @Inspekdah ?

Rams have to be angry at this point and need a win. They get to potentially feast here versus the back-up for Carolina...

Bills and Chiefs is what we have waited for. Buffalo IS the best team in the league. Kansas City has been weird this year... sometimes unstoppable and other times not great on offense. They miss the speed of Hill, no doubt. This should be a fun one and a great game to LIV bet methinks...

I usually despise seeing Dallas on 4 Sunday night games each year, but this is a great matchup. We'll learn so much in this game about BOTH teams...

I already stated I will not watch anymore Denver primetime games. That starts this Monday. Fun little matchup of two of the worst coaches you'll ever see... simply in over their heads...
 
Rereading my first post it seems like I like KC to win but I really just meant I don't think the Bill's D absolutely shuts them down.

Offensively I just don't think KC will be able to stop Allen. Buffalo may not be able to pound the run like Jacobs did, but they most definitely can spread the ball around better than anyone (same as KC). Singletary is great in short passing game and they are stacked at wr. McKenzie should be back & Shakir could be special. With Gabe stretching the field Allen can pick his poison if he keeps getting protection.

KC has faced 2 #1 wrs (3 if you count Mike Williams- i would) and Evans/Adams both shredded them. Diggs could have an absolute field day. I wonder will KC really try to send Sneed because I think Allen will make some highlight reel plays out of it. Another thing to note the Bills can get great pressure without blitzing and I think it could be the difference in these teams. Rousseau is an absolute beast.
 
Capaholic said:
Personally, I think the Bills are the better team. Howeverrrrr…. This line is ass. KC does get a more traditional 3 points for home field as does Buffalo. Are we honestly saying Buffalo is -5.5 on a neutral and -8.5 at home vs KC?
Click to expand...
I grabbed Bills-120 early thinking it might shoot up to -130 but never thought -2.5. To me it looks like they are begging for KC action.

How many teasers out there will have KC+9.5?
 
Are the Patriots suddenly good? I don't think so. Things are looking grim in Cleveland but I think they can handle NE. Both teams can't stop the run i expect Cleveland to try and load up vs Rhamondre with Damien Harris out. I know i know Belichick vs the Browns but I don't see how Chubb doesn't run wild here.
 
KJ said:
Niners staying at Greenbrier this week, 5th time under Shanahan they've stayed East for b2b. They're now 8-1 in those games and 4-0 in g2, not sure how they are against the number but probably pretty similar.
Click to expand...
Pretty sure I just heard on VSIN they are 4-0 ats in game 2 also. But upon their return home, they are 0-4. That was at least ATS, not sure about SU.
 
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B.A.R. said:
Few thoughts...

Cap already commented a bit on some of these lines being a bit confusing...

Thursday will be awful, but still will be better than what we saw last week on TNF...

The Nawlins defense versus the Cincy OL will be interesting... fun cap for our inner nerd...

Indy isn't very good, this is a type of game the Jags need to win to show they are taking that next incremental step...

Pretty hefty tariff in New Jersey for the Ravens with that defense. As someone said last week, the Giants just play HARD. The fact they are scoring even in the 20's at times is wild to me with the receivers they are throwing out there...

As noted with Minnesota above, interesting line. Obviously, we need to know full Miami QB situation...

Niners right back to the East Coast... did they go home this week @Inspekdah ?

Rams have to be angry at this point and need a win. They get to potentially feast here versus the back-up for Carolina...

Bills and Chiefs is what we have waited for. Buffalo IS the best team in the league. Kansas City has been weird this year... sometimes unstoppable and other times not great on offense. They miss the speed of Hill, no doubt. This should be a fun one and a great game to LIV bet methinks...

I usually despise seeing Dallas on 4 Sunday night games each year, but this is a great matchup. We'll learn so much in this game about BOTH teams...

I already stated I will not watch anymore Denver primetime games. That starts this Monday. Fun little matchup of two of the worst coaches you'll ever see... simply in over their heads...
Click to expand...
Look at you looking forward to a Cowboys game....

No Manningcast this week only compounds the misery this Monday.
 
Washington - Chicago -1.5 - As long as the weather is OK I think this total is too low. Neither defense is all that great, Bears should be able to dial up some chunk plays to Mooney and WFT will be able to move it any way they want.

Tampa Bay -8.5 - Pittsburgh - Steez were thoroughly embarrassed last week so if they have any pride at all they'll at least make a game of it. The Bucs left the backdoor open last week and will probably do so again. Kenny is due to get a TD or two. Taking the points.

Cincinnati PK - New Orleans - Think the books are overcompensating for the Bengals running 5 straight under games. Saints can be thrown on as Geno and Kirk showed, and with gogo gadget guy Hill their red zone efficiency is excellent. Over 43 looks like the play.

Jacksonville - Indianapolis -1.5 - Gawd, can the Colts beat the Jags? I don't think so, but the Jags looked so awful last week I can't bet it.

New England - Cleveland -2.5 - Browns keep finding ways to lose games. NE should have a big day on the ground, game will be close.

NY Jets - Green Bay -7.5 - Would expect a Packer bounce back here at home in this up and down league, will lay the 7.5 and hope they can close the deal this time.

Baltimore -5.5 - NY Giants - Giants have been getting it done with Barkley and D. They should have W. Robinson back this week. Seems like too big a number although the Ravens have been taking care of business on the road. Pass.

Minnesota -3.5 - Miami - Revenge game for Teddy. Vikings with three straight one score wins, this one has the feel of a streak breaker. Fins +3.5

San Franciso -5.5 - Atlanta - Niners have been a brick wall lately but both teams a good at shortening games so it might play closer than expected. So many home dogs this week. Under 44.5 looks appetizing.

Carolina - LA Rams -10.5 - So the Rams get throttled by Dallas and now we're supposed to buy them as double digits favorites? I think the record of teams playing following a mid-season coaching replacement is actually decent, so I'll take the 10.5

Buffalo -2.5 - Kansas City - If Bills are the team to beat this year they'd better win this one.
 
Gandolf said:
Minnesota -3.5 - Miami - Revenge game for Teddy. Vikings with three straight one score wins, this one has the feel of a streak breaker. Fins +3.5
Click to expand...
Teddy not starting brutha

Not sure how or why to play it
 
Notice a lot of last year's peeps missing...

Last call for PICK CLUB!!


Pick Club WEEK #2 -- LAST week for entries!

Welcome back to Pick Club for the 11th installment of our beloved contest! That's right, we are back for another year to find out who the best NFL capper is on CTG! Past Champions have included: 2010: Eggman 2011: Smith1051 2012: Smith1051 2013: Mogo 2014: Alex 2015: SilkyDiamonds 2016: TakeIt...
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Locked in Dallas -7 vs Lions next week.

Bad matchup.

I'll assume we see something like 8.5 come Monday.
 
Lexington 125 said:
I'm probably just going to talk about the Bills all week. Bills/Chiefs total lined at 54.

Bills defense despite injuries have been playing great ball. Haven't allowed over 21 all season. Dare I say they are still an underrated D as Allen gets all the attention. Huge part of their success so far has been the ability to pressure the QB without having to bring blitzes. They got by rotating corners in as Poyer went down & Benford was injured. Rookie Elam lost the starting job to Benford but now has seen way more of the field along with Jaquan Johnson. It's going to hard to hide a liability in the secondary vs an all time great qb. The front four has dominated and our LB play has been great too- outside of a couple plays like Milano dropping a pick 6 @Miami. This is a different type of game.

I think the cbs get exposed @KC. Elam had a pick but if you watched nearly every completion was on him. 10 catches 100+ yards. That's not a good sign when traveling to Arrowhead. Going to have to have Poyer in the lineup or Buffalo won't win. Really would like Benford back as well. My concern with Mahomes is obvious, but he creates enough time for coverage to break down and hoping a second rookie corner can play is a scary thought.

Could see a game where it's close and one team tries controlling the clock and grinding it down, but there is absolutely NO WAY I'd consider the under. The o-line is playing well & injuries have allowed some players down the depth chart to see playing time. I think it pays dividends later in the season. I think Shakir will end up being a better all around wr than Gabe Davis, but rn Gabe is that home run hitter you need alongside Diggs. They'll need KNox in vs the Chiefs, seems like he may have been rested lw just to be ready. Hasn't done much yet but he got paid for a reason.

I think this potentially very very public play cashes
Click to expand...

I can’t believe kc dogs at home and it makes me sick but think i like the bills. I suspect kc gonna try and continue being a ball control team and play keep away but I don’t think they can handle bills wrs. Bills can have the reg sesson, kc still gets them in playoffs! Lol. Davis was a monster in that playoff gm, yoi like his props in this one?
 
B.A.R. said:
Locked in Dallas -7 vs Lions next week.

Bad matchup.

I'll assume we see something like 8.5 come Monday.
Click to expand...

One team can’t stop a nose bleed, the other has one the best defenses in the league. Dallas should run for 250 in that game.
 
How can you not like ravens? They fixing the secondary but that won’t matter against shitbag Daniel Jones. We see what frauds the Gmen are this week! Ravens by double digits!!
 
Capaholic said:
Personally, I think the Bills are the better team. Howeverrrrr…. This line is ass. KC does get a more traditional 3 points for home field as does Buffalo. Are we honestly saying Buffalo is -5.5 on a neutral and -8.5 at home vs KC?
Click to expand...

No but think right now they the better team. Your boys don’t lose As dogs tho. I feel like the game means way more to bills. Kinda like when kc rolled pats in reg season after losing the afc champ game.
 
Bills are best in the league against tight ends. They just shut Andrews down, be interesting if they can take kelce away? They do that it game over.
 
askias said:
Any interest in CIN? Saints seem to be missing their entire WR corps.
Click to expand...

I hate their head coach so bad, their luck bix SB run masked the fact he a fucjing idiot. He don’t understand protections, he don’t understand route combos or motion. He just lines up 5 wide and let’s burrow take a beating. He a Fuckinh moron! 2 weeks ago against fish with tired beaten up corners he ran mixon into a wall 24x for 60 yards! Then last week mixon was going for over 5 yards a carry and gets like 14 touches! But yea I do like cincy, I just hate backing garbage coaches. Im afraid he gets burrow killed today.
 
2daBank said:
Bills are best in the league against tight ends. They just shut Andrews down, be interesting if they can take kelce away? They do that it game over.
Click to expand...
No chance they completely take him away. Kelce last 5 vs Buffalo

8-96 1td
6-57-1
13-118-2
5-65-2
 
Lexington 125 said:
No chance they completely take him away. Kelce last 5 vs Buffalo

8-96 1td
6-57-1
13-118-2
5-65-2
Click to expand...

Well nobody totally shuts him out but they hold him under his 79.5 total it go a long way to winning this game. I’m assuming those bigger games the playoff games lower numbers reg season?
 
Public teams (+60% of bets) NFL Week 6 at @BetMGM

71% on Panthers +10
69% on Bengals -3
67% on Chargers -4.5
62% on Jets +7.5
62% on Vikings -3
 
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