Week 6 DFS/Props Discussion

2daBank said:
After looking at 1st half stats I was shocked Brady stayed under passing yards. I was to scared to play it tho, at half I thought I was smart to pass. Lol
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other two legs were Hurts o.5 picks and Fournette o64.5 rushing

Both were in at HT and Godwin had 5 catches at half
 
KJ said:
other two legs were Hurts o.5 picks and Fournette o64.5 rushing

Both were in at HT and Godwin had 5 catches at half
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Nothing beats cashing them props before half!

I feel ya. Thought I had Lockett in the bag last week then Russ went and got hurt. I dunno why the hell Gio was involved so little? He didn’t see any targets in 1st half then 2 catches (went over catches but juice was too high) for 8 stinking yards! Guess that why it was so low! Lol. I didn’t see any the game so dunno if he got snaps or what? I expected him to be taking over not only as passing down back but the 2nd guy instead of Jones.
 
Why is Eagles coach so allergic to rushing the damn ball? Sanders a really talented back and they hardly use him! I didn’t expect them to start trying to run vs that d but looking at the stats Sanders had 9 rushes for 56 yards! He did have a 23 yarder but that still means without that he was going for 4ypc. Why wouldn’t you feed him more? He rarely even gets double digit carries which is Fuckinh stupid imo. Why wouldn’t you try to helo your young qb? By the way who should be very good with the zone read game!! Makes no sense, coach a retard.
 
mcculran said:
I think if the weather/wind that bank was talking about actually happens, hunt will be a free square
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The problem is like Scopey mentioned the ownership be thru the roof, so much ya gotta take into account to try and win the tourneys with 1k or more entries! Sometimes there nothing ya can do and like you said “free square”, these times when fading is a bad idea but 80% lineups will have him. Might even be worth the risk to fade him in 1 or 2 single entries, if he doesn’t have a big game you will automatically have a leg up on most the others!! Obviously risky cause odds in his favor he scores 20+, if that the case we fall behind. I’m assuming his price not real cheap since he always a viable play even with Chubb. Think he was 5500 or so when I used last week.
 
I even did some lineups with Chubb and hunt last week! Crazy you can do that with the browns!! Most teams it tough to trust one rb! Imo Chargers are the best team to play running backs against long as they don’t jump out to a big lead the opposing back gonna rack up numbers!

Who is browns 3rd string back? Something tells me Hunt still won’t get much more than 20 touches so that leaves another 12-15 for another guy….
 
2daBank said:
Considering the potential weather Im pretty confident in saying browns RB’s gonna get 35 touches minimum!
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D’Ernest Johnson is the only other back with carries this reg season (2 for 9 yds vs chi). John Kelly got a ton of work in the preseason (9-10 carries per game) and Demetric Felton got lesser work in preseason. No idea who the coaches like more, but local reporters saying felton #3 and johnson #4 on depth chart.
 
mcculran said:
D’Ernest Johnson is the only other back with carries this reg season (2 for 9 yds vs chi). John Kelly got a ton of work in the preseason (9-10 carries per game) and Demetric Felton got lesser work in preseason. No idea who the coaches like more, but local reporters saying felton #3 and johnson #4 on depth chart.
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That might be a crazy sneaky kinda play that gets you a shot at placing high in a tourney! No doubt they all the minimum salary. If you can gst typical hunt touches and production out of one them you have some money to spend elsewhere! Obviously none of them on Hunts level, Hunt a legit 1 on most every other team! So could be a total flop! Lol, bright side is even if turns out to be a bust ya spend the extra money wisely could still cash/at least get money back and then some. I’m dying for a minimum salary guy who scores me 15-20 or more! Havnt found one all year but Im pretty sure there been a few!!! Nothing gives me wood like that! lol
 
I don’t think browns gonna all a sudden give 1 back 30+ touches, are they? It would totally go against their MO..,, we just have to find the one they like! Somebody else getting 10-12 touches!! Especially if my weather info is accurate. Baker don’t have the arm to be throwing into 30+ mph winds! Check down city! Everybody keep their ears open!!’
 
I like hunter henry this week alot at $3900.
19 targets last 3 weeks with 2 tds, now he gets the dal matchup who is 25th against te’s (giving up opp te 5.5 rec/7 tar/66 yds), in a very positive game script which they’re likely to be behind entire game
 
Felton has gotten on field way more than johnson and had gotten a few targets in several games. What we think browns would be more likely to use? A between the tackle runner or this kid who more likely a passing down guy?
 
2daBank said:
Felton has gotten on field way more than johnson and had gotten a few targets in several games. What we think browns would be more likely to use? A between the tackle runner or this kid who more likely a passing down guy?
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Hard to say since hunt is so versatile. If the game is competitive, i would expect they mix backup in early downs as a breather and use hunt on obv passing downs
 
mcculran said:
Hard to say since hunt is so versatile. If the game is competitive, i would expect they mix backup in early downs as a breather and use hunt on obv passing downs
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Yea, that kinda makes more sense. Gonna try to do some reading and see if there any clues!
 
mcculran said:
I like hunter henry this week alot at $3900.
19 targets last 3 weeks with 2 tds, now he gets the dal matchup who is 25th against te’s (giving up opp te 5.5 rec/7 tar/66 yds), in a very positive game script which they’re likely to be behind entire game
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I got burnt w him few times so of course had none of him last week when he broke out. I been having lot of that in dfs this year, use a guy for weeks, get nothing, give up, he breaks out! Lol. Not sure I expect pats to be trailing but I like Henry none the less. Dallas not getting much pass rush so think mac n cheese should be good. That has to mean throwing to the te’s cause that all he got!

I like st.brown for lions at wr this week. Real cheap and seems to quietly becoming Goff fav target on outside. Of course the rbs his favorite targets! Lol. Love swift this week.
 
When is bellicheck gonna get sick of damion Harris fumbling? I’m shocked he still getting work after 2 fumbles that cost pats the game against Miami in week 1, fumbled again last week, think I recall another game he fumbled also! That kid Stephenson looked awesome in preseason, he finally got into the game last week and had 11 carries, he didn’t do shit with them but think it just a matter of time/another Harris fumble away from him getting a lot more run!
 
Hunt missing practices this week also! I have no doubt he playing but again is he really getting 30 touches? Probably more like 20-25, with browns offense in wind that def leaves 10-15 touches for somebody! I know I’m beating this to death but really think could be a opportunity here!! Cards d allowing 5.4 yards per carry this year, 31st in the league!
 
2daBank said:
When is bellicheck gonna get sick of damion Harris fumbling? I’m shocked he still getting work after 2 fumbles that cost pats the game against Miami in week 1, fumbled again last week, think I recall another game he fumbled also! That kid Stephenson looked awesome in preseason, he finally got into the game last week and had 11 carries, he didn’t do shit with them but think it just a matter of time/another Harris fumble away from him getting a lot more run!
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I loved what i saw out of stephenson in preseason. They are not super deep, but he’s been inactive and just completely left out of the game plan otherwise. Started 2nd half last week, so may be changing of the guard. I know i have a ton of him in my season long best ball leagues. He could be a game changer, if they let him eat!
 
Tried to find some kinda Swift pass catching yardage or reception props last time I went up to casino earlier but didn’t see any backs in that game cept mixon, hopefully they will be added in morning? DK usually has tons of options on bunch of players!
 
2daBank said:
When is bellicheck gonna get sick of damion Harris fumbling? I’m shocked he still getting work after 2 fumbles that cost pats the game against Miami in week 1, fumbled again last week, think I recall another game he fumbled also! That kid Stephenson looked awesome in preseason, he finally got into the game last week and had 11 carries, he didn’t do shit with them but think it just a matter of time/another Harris fumble away from him getting a lot more run!
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Harris might not play tomorrow fwiw. Questionable with rib injury
 
mcculran said:
Man, with lac giving up almost 6 ypc, don’t see how you can get away from lamar at qb.
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I’m not sure that equates to him running a lot? They give that up cause they play so many light boxes but that should give them more speed out there to contain him, maybe? It blows we can’t trust which rb ravens will use cause I’d suspect one of them has a good game. Lamar could go off obviously, chargers having more dbs on the field could help defending him tho, beats me,
 
Sneaky QBS are WFT QB and HOU QB, Mahomes way more money and obvious
Sneaky TE WFT, Kelce more money super obvious
RB: Chuba, Taylor, D. Williams Den,
WR: Toney, Kupp,
 
Idk if WFT is sneaky but I agree in general. Comments I said to my buddies during TNF this week

"from an O/U, TT perspective, most will be team stacking KCC/LAR/DAL ---- game stacking KCC/WAS, LAC/BAL, DAL/NEP, maybe ARI/CLV.

I think KCC/WAS is HARD to avoid. On top of highest O/U, both teams are at the bottom of DVOA vs the pass, both QBs are in the 2nd/3rd best ASR positions..... ATLEAST 1+ players from this game need to be somewhere in your lineup. If you want to avoid the stack to try and gain leverage, take one offs. Game is ranked 6th in terms of pace of play for the entire week, but 3rd for the main slate (thurs night/londo ngame, and monday night are all faster)

I'm hoping DAL/NEP gets overlooked, I listed it above because of the O/U, but maybe people see these defenses as able to stop the opposing offenses, or atleast slow down. There's no DVOA matchup that fully stands out aside from Dallas run game, Zeke, ahem, ahem. He also has the 4th best line push of the week. But this game also has the 4th highest pace of play for the week (2nd of the main slate)... I like this one, and I hope it comes quietly/at suppressed ownership. I need to look individually, but hunter henry could be a good get.

I'd avoid most of ARI/CLV, 4th highet O/U, but its a slower paced game (11th for the week, out of 14). The picture above shows the wind gusts. What we have to decide is, is there a reasonably priced fade of Hunt? Strictly an ownership leverage play, but there's an honest debate to not take him in GPP that needs to be had. Otherwise, I'm probably off this one.

Tell me Danny Dimes is playing, and give mroe of the LAR/NYG game, LAR is 2nd in Team total for the week, they have a big boost for henderson, as he's 2nd in ALY push, and giants are bottom in stopping RB's/DVOA. Stafford has the best ASR matchup as well. I need to check, but assuming a lot of the giants players are dirtttt cheappp too... so its easily stackable, and you'll be able to one off the big timers you need in the other matchups."

"keep in mind for tomorrows main slate, its the least amount of games (was 13, last week 12, this week 10)... so ownership will be even more concentrated than its ever been (with less pool of players, and even more current information with 5 weeks done --- as opposed to weighing more heavily to past year(s)). So pivoting can even be more rewarding"

Me personally, guys I mostly took, plus some I took a bit off

QB - Mahomes/Heinicke ------- Staff -- Dak/Mac ------ Herb/DJones.

I won't take anyone off lamar, but just avoiding it, and I dont have much of herbert. Burrow may be only other guy with potential to break it, I dont think goff/cousins/darnold/mills/wentz/rodgers/fields/murray/baker/carr/teddy can. Maybe the min/car game? maybe rodgers? maybe carr? meh.

RB - Zeke was my more expensive option, I have some hunt/hubbard/herbert/henderson. A tiny bit of darrel/mixon/swift/ekeler.

WR - the typical qb stacks ---- Hill/Hardman/Mclaurin/Humpries/Kupp/Lamb/Meyers/Allen/Toney. Then a sprinkle of Jefferson/Chase/St. Brown, may be missing someone.

TE - pretty much only Kelce/RSJ/Henry ---- a touch of andrews.

DEF - gulping here, but to fit some lineups I have some browns/lions/chargers, the cheap-o's.
 
Play2win said:
Sneaky QBS are WFT QB and HOU QB, Mahomes way more money and obvious
Sneaky TE WFT, Kelce more money super obvious
RB: Chuba, Taylor, D. Williams Den,
WR: Toney, Kupp,
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I did pay up for mahomes in some, then I went oppo end of spectrum and used Football teams qb in others. Also snuck in some seals-Jones at te (in mahomes lineups), paid up for Kelce in Hienke lineups (backwards I know). Tried to get as much cheetah and mclarien I could, even sprinkled in a couple the Washington wrs who down around 3k, Carter mostly, brown once I think. I like several rbs in the 6k range but also tried to get some shares of bears Herbert.
 
Mostly cash lineups for me today. Like @ScopeY said there’s gonna be such a high concentration of ownerships, I’m struggling to find some solid contrarian gpp options
 
Wanna get little bit of Danny Dimes since he cleared. Also Shepard back and only 5k, still like Toney but his price has jumped Sheppard so sterling my guy in that one. On the tee Higgens train a bit, gotta think teams gonna start paying extra attention to chase and higgens further removed from injury snd was pretty involved last week.
 
I think Chubba/Jefferson mini game stack ( or a mini game stack from that game in general) can vault you up.. just got to get the right one
 
ScopeY said:
I think Chubba/Jefferson mini game stack ( or a mini game stack from that game in general) can vault you up.. just got to get the right one
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I like panthers d and don’t like way cousins been playing so I avoided that game other than panthers d in a few, lol.
 
QB—mostly lamar, dak, mac….few mahomes, burrow, goff, heinecke

RB—can’t fade hunt completely, have some zeke, d henderson, swift, chuba, lat murray, ekeler in lamaer lineups, & took a few shots with felton

WR—hollywood, cooper, lamb, meyers, freak, mclarin, k allen, chase, higgins, a st brown, couple shots on r anderson (although i’m sure he gets single digits AGAIN), woods and kupp in a few

TE—mostly henry, some andrews, couple kelce, couple logan thomas

DEF— mostly indy, car, cle for me


Good luck boys! Almost kick time
 
mcculran said:
QB—mostly lamar, dak, mac….few mahomes, burrow, goff, heinecke

RB—can’t fade hunt completely, have some zeke, d henderson, swift, chuba, lat murray, ekeler in lamaer lineups, & took a few shots with felton

WR—hollywood, cooper, lamb, meyers, freak, mclarin, k allen, chase, higgins, a st brown, couple shots on r anderson (although i’m sure he gets single digits AGAIN), woods and kupp in a few

TE—mostly henry, some andrews, couple kelce, couple logan thomas

DEF— mostly indy, car, cle for me


Good luck boys! Almost kick time
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I did 1 last second lineup with Lamar in case you right bout him rushing here!!

I used some hunt also, I don’t see how he doesn’t score 20? Mostly used him, mixon (no Perine), swift, Henderson, and Herbert (cheap!).

I used some Henry also. We on same page with defenses. Gl brotha
 
2daBank said:
I did 1 last second lineup with Lamar in case you right bout him rushing here!!

I used some hunt also, I don’t see how he doesn’t score 20? Mostly used him, mixon (no Perine), swift, Henderson, and Herbert (cheap!).

I used some Henry also. We on same page with defenses. Gl brotha
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Game script didnt warrant him doing much. Then murray got hurt and left game. Bad sunday for me. Bout tired of losing ncaa winnings on nfl…
 
mcculran said:
Game script didnt warrant him doing much. Then murray got hurt and left game. Bad sunday for me. Bout tired of losing ncaa winnings on nfl…
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That seriously why I’ve stopped betting nfl sides and even totals for most part bro. Last year I just started being more selective and betting far less per game but being selective is not my strength, so went back to firing at more plays this year and it wasn’t worth a damn (slightly below flipping coins! Lol). Figuring out I like betting props has helped a ton, those and dfs enough action for me, for most part I don’t wanna sit around the entire Sunday after watching ncaa from morning till after midnight every Saturday anyways! I’m sure I’ll find a play or 2 here and there rest of way but that be it. Think I’m starting to get locked in on ncaa, took me little time this season.
 
Other than swift my RB starts were fantastic! Swift actually wasn’t even bad. Hunt sucked but luckily only used him in a few. Can’t brag too much bout the rb plays cause turns out RBs were great all over the league this week! Figures, lol.


unfortunately mahomes and the few I used Hurts thu were only lineups my qb was good enough (I swear I should come here and let you guys pick a few qbs for me! Used to do that with a friend of mine as that only position he picked well and my worst! Lol).

Wasn’t great for me at wr. Higgens and the lions guy were shit,, luckily cheetah came back in game and did Ok (not really for the price but wasn’t a lineup killer anyways). I usually do pretty well with moderate to cheap wide outs but this wasn’t the week for me. Sheppard turned out decent enough, 17 points for 5k salary not bad. Kupp was awesome but didn’t have enough shares of him, if i had I woulda done really well! Of course I don’t use thelien this week and he was great, I just have grown tired of cousins last few weeks so of course he turns around vs a defense I like! That the NFL!!

Can’t complain getting 15-16 points out of Seals-Jonas for 3k!

I got all my money back and a few bucks on top. Plus havs a chance to place in a few that startled thu and end 2marro. I have steelers d goin now, diggs in several, Allen, diggs, Knox in one.
 
Kinda regret not looking into Lockett under props after the conversation we had in discussion thread! Geno clearly not looking his way!
 
booksbestfriend said:
After a half, 0 tackles. Pretty bad when your brother, a backup FULLBACK, has 2 tackles and the highest paid person on this defense hasn't done crap.
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Against that oline and a backup qb none the less! Had ya told me steelers be pitching a shutout id have thought you be cashing this. Are they doubling him? I figured out real fast I don’t like defensive props, quietly tried a few last week and they were similarly terrible! Lol
 
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