ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
I've separated the games into the main slates (2 game/3 game/showdown) when looking at TT, or O/U perspectives, but pace of play is comparison for all 6 teams, just know they are all for the most part on the back half of pace, and are within 1 second of each other (the range was roughly 3 seconds per play during regular season). Also, the great/good/meh/bad for pressure rate/pass/run potentials are separated by 1-3, 4-6, 7-9, 10-12, so bad may not be terrible, just relative to the other matchups/grades.
Saturday Main/2 Game Slate
LAC@HOU
Chargers have a meh P/RB matchup.
Texans have a bad P/RB matchup.
Herbert has a good pressure rate situation (5th), and a good pass potential (5th). Dobbins has a bad rush potential (10th).
Stroud has a meh pressure rate situation (8th), and a bad pass potential (12th). Mixon has a meh rush potential (7th).
Chargers TTR is 2nd.
Texans TTR is 3rd.
Pace of play is 6th. O/U Rank is 2nd (meh).
- On a full weekend slate, I don't think I want any 4 of these QBs to to much, but on the 2 game slate, we need to make decisions. The Chargers last 4 weeks with the full suite of WRs, Herbert has averaged 34.5 pass attempts, and keep in mind 2 of those games were in positive run script matchups. He is cheap enough to consider, but I don't have to play him, I mention the pass attempts because the WRs are of interest to me. Ladds price has sky rocketed, but still worthy in the 6K range, he has a 28% target share/8.9 aDOT, but if mass entering, I'd rather have more of QJ, the target share drops to 23%, but he has as similar aDOT and is priced in the 4K range --- he also has a greater RZ target share than McConkey. Both of these guys see boosts as Palmers 11% target share is opned up too. Got to admit, Dobbins has 20+ opp potential, but I think he has a low floor as well and despite the increased in pass attempt volume, his targets are very range-y. I'd include him only if mass entering.
Mixons L4(3) weeks have been baaaaaaad, 0 TDs, and hit over 10 points (10.6) just once, in a game where he needed 6 targets to get there. I do think he has 25+ opp potential, and I know he has the ability to be a safe floor option usually, he's also the cheapest he has been since Wk7. I am torn on him, I won't cross him off, but I'll probably be underweight. HOUs L3 meaningful games, Collins has just a 24% target share, which is lower than his early season avg, when both Dell/Diggs were healthy --- weird --- but he still has a 12 aDOT, and I can only imagine his target numbers going up, not down. I think he is a high floor/ceiling play. Can't trust Diontae... if Metchie is out, Woods and Hutchinson are cheap punt plays, would rather hutchinson I think. Schultz interests me the 2nd most on this team, he quietly had a 19.5% target share in the L3, with an ok aDOT of 7.3, with 1 RZ target/g. I think a 6-50-1 statline is attainable, that is almost 5x'ing his salary.
PIT@BAL
Steelers have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Ravens have a bad P/RB matchup.
Wilson has a bad pressure rate situation (11th), and a meh pass potential (9th). Najee/Warren has a bad rush potential (12th).
Lamar has a meh pressure rate situation (7th), but a great pass potential (3rd). Henry has a great rush potential (2nd).
Steelers TTR is 4th (meh).
Ravens TTR is 1st (great).
Pace of play is 4th (meh). O/U Rank is 1st (just into the normal range, but only 1 point higher than the game above).
- I was ready to scream Warren from the rooftops for like 6th~ week in a row --- from Wk14 to 17 he lead the backfield in snaps, he had 14 to 17 opps with at least 5 targets in 3 of those 4 --- that is really nice for a 5K piece, but last week in a game that was still imporant, they reverted back and he only saw 38% of snaps, and had just 7 opps (1 target). I want to avoid the situation in the backfield entirely, I will only have him in a lineup or 2 where mass entering. In the L2 games since pickens return, he has a mediorce 20% target share, but a good 14.4 aDOT, and when it comes to WR options, you know he is most likely to be funneled too, I don't hate him, but Freiermuth grades out better, he has quietly had a massive 30% target share, with an ok aDOT of 6.5, we expect them to be playing from behind, he could get overlooked. Williams is a punt dart throw, as he has a massive 24.6 aDOT, and there was a time BAL D was susceptible to the pass, only take a shot in a lineup or 2 if mass entering.
You can always argue Lamar has the highest floor/ceiling combo but it comes at a price, I won't talk anybody off a guy who can go 15+ Fpoints on total yardage, and another 15+ FPs on TDs but I am not sure how roster construction works just yet. In the 3 games without Justice, Henry has had 26/29/23 opps, all in mostly blowouts too, seeing over 2 targets/g (which is saying something for him), he finished with 23.9+ points in each, one against this very team. If you fade lamar, you should consider Henry (or both). No flowers, no 3rd back in Justice, L3 weeks Flowers has had a 22.7% target share, that raises all floors, and most of these other guys are cheappp on BAL. Bateman can make sense, although Agholor/Wallace could make tourney sense. I will note, most people will go here in lineups, and there is obviously a scenario where Lamars pass volume is wayy down/if they play with a lead, and if TDs are scored by the ground (lamar or Henry), the pivot could propel you do a high placement. I think Andrews was going to be a play of mine all week, he has a massive 24% target share in his L3, with an insane 13.25 aDOT... again the target share should absolutely increase, the same goes for likely and his 13.6%/8.2 aDOT. I want Andrews, but I will be making some with Likely.
Sunday Main/3 Game Slate
DEN@BUF
Broncos have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Bills have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Nix has a great pressure rate situation (3rd), but a meh pass potential (7th). McLuaghlin??? has a meh rush potential (9th).
Allen has a good pressure rate situation (6th), and a good pass potential (6th). Cook has a good rush potential (4th).
Broncos TTR is 6th (meh).
Bills TTR is 1st (great).
Pace of play is 2nd. O/U Rank is 2nd (good).
- Bo has been consistent mostly all year, and he took a bit of a lull in rushing upside mid late this year, but the last 4 weeks he has shown he isn't going away from it, with a projected passing script, and one of the best paces of the week, he is viable as the 5th priced QB on this slate (out of 6). Do we really want to trust a 3 headed backfield?! I don't, McLuaghlin is coming off an 18 touch performance, and is 4.9K, with probably sub 1% ownership, I guess I'd throw him in a lineup where mass entering. Suttons L4 weeks has seen him have a 24% target share/13 aDOT, he should be in all pools while in the 6K range. Taking out the low snap share due to a blowout, Mims has seen 47% snap share in 2 of those games, by far the highest on the season, and despite low snap counts in general, he has been 2nd in target share at 17%, he seems to have a knack for the endzone, and would treat him slightly higher than mclaughlin in terms of usage in lineups. Vele/Franklin maybe punt/salary saver options, prefer Vele and his 9 aDOT.
Allen, like Lamar, has a great floor/ceiling combo where I won't argue it if you want to play him. I want to have interest in Cook, but he is creeping towards 7K, and in his L6 games post bye, he has not hit 47%+ of snaps once, and has been capped at 15 opportunities, averaging 1.1 target/g, I know he gets TDs, but we know Allen is a vulture candidate too, I think I will fade the ownership here. BUF WRs give me a headache, and I feel like they are never healthy together. One of them will absolutely pass the salary standout check, but who do we go to? In the L5 meaningful games, Shakir does have a 24% target share, I do think he is the most reliable, but when looking at aDOT, Coleman has a big 18.8 one and has seen the field a lot since his return, I think I'm going to take him the most, sorry Cooper/Hollins. There's other TEs I prefer with better projections, and not time sharing, pass.
GBP@PHI
Packers have a bad P/RB matchup.
Eagles have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Love has a good pressure rate situation (4th), but a meh pass potential (8th). Jacobs has a good rush potential (6th).
Hurts? has a great pressure rate situation (2nd), but a bad pass potential (11th). Barkley has a great rush potential (3rd).
Packers TTR is 5th.
Eagles TTR is 3rd (good).
Pace of play is 5th. O/U Rank is 3rd.
- Jacobs has 20+ opp potential with maybe a 4 target floor, I obviously have problems with the tough matchup, and I know PHI can really slow down the pace if they play with a lead, so there are concerns, but I do think he will be the least owned expensive RB, who has upside like them all, so he isn't off my radar. When Watson is out, Wicks plays 70%+ of snaps, and he is priced in the 4K range, he is viable. But the most recent time he was out. Doubs came out with a 38% target share/8 aDOT, which if we can get close to that, he could smash at 5.4K. I do think all these guys are cheap, and similar to BUF atleast one will be a salary standout --- but not similar to BUF, it is a bit more concentrated, and the script favors them as opposed to BUF, so I will have mix's of each, but Doubs will be my favorite (followed by wicks then reed). Krafts aDOT if fine at 7~ but there are TEs with better floor/ceiling combos imo.
Barkleys floor is probably 25 opps, and his ceiling is over 30... no RB in the entire weekend can say that, and you can't write off his slate breaking upside. I know Goedert will sap some of this, but weeks 14 through 17, Brown/Smith combined for and 84% target share. That is filthy, both were over 35%. IF you don't play Barkley you have to consider one of these options at the least (even if you DO play him too). I can be talked off Browns price at 7.5K (even though I'll be sure to have shares), but Smith at 5.7K seems like a mispricing that I'll exploit.
WAS@TBB
Commanders have a good P/RB matchup.
Buccaneers have a great P/RB matchup.
Daniels has a bad pressure rate situation (10th), but a great pass potential (2nd). Br. Rob/Ekeler has a good rush potential (5th).
Baker has a great pressure rate situation (1st), and a great pass potential (1st). Bucky/White have a great rush potential (1st).
Commanders TTR is 4th (good).
Bucs TTR is 2nd (great).
Pace of play is 3rd. O/U Rank is 1st (great).
- This is going to be the game with the most popularity, and I can't really disagree. Daniels has had a great year, and may be matchup proof with his rushing upside, Weeks 13-17 he never had fewer than 9 carries, capping at 16-127 line on the ground (this rushing line 2x's his salary alone....) He may be the most popular QB, but he may be mine too. Tampa is kind of pass funnel, and WAS backs are all healthy, I don't really want to be apart of the backfield here, I guess an Ekeler lineup wouldnt hurt at that price, and potential for a PPR floor/ceiling game, but not going overboard. I thought going into this Ertz would project better, but a 12% target share over his L3 doesn't get me up at night, the only thing he has going for him is his 1.5 RZ targets/g in that span, but in a full weekend slate, the Freiers/Andrews still grade out better, and while he is the obvious choice on the 3 game slate, I wouldn't be afraid to get different at this position to create leverage, as it may be the highest variance position from this slates perspective. Idk why McLaurin is still in the 6K range, similar to Sutton, he is the WR1 seeing 26.5% target share, and a 12.7 aDOT, he also gets RZ work, do it if you want/can. Zaccheus is a good salary saving option, he quietly has had a 20% target share L4 and is cheap, Brown is cheaper, but he has the worst aDOT of the bunch, and a target share in the single digits, I'll pass.
In a closely contested must win game, Bucky finally separated from White with a season high 72% snap count (the prior 6~ weeks it was like 5X% to 4X% split). In translated to a 24 opp game (5 targets). I will say he is 7K now, but if he will have a 70%+ snap count, he is absolutely playable, if you think this returns closer to a 55-45~ range, maybe fade him. In the L6 weeks Evans has had a 30.5% target share combo'd with a 12.2 aDOT, he is Bakers #1 target in a game with the highest O/U of the week, I like him a lot. McMillian has came on strong, and still relatively cheap at 5.2K, I won't have a lot of him unless big stacking this one, but a 17.5%/10.8 aDOT is respectable. Pass on Shepard. If Otton was/is out I'd have interest in Durham at 3.1K, but otherwise I'll mostly pass on this situation unless getting different from Ertz.
Monday Night/Showdown Slate
MIN@LAR
Vikings have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Rams have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Darnold has a meh pressure rate situation (9th), but a good pass potential (4th). Jones has a meh rush potential (8th).
Stafford has a bad pressure rate situation (12th), and a bad pass potential (10th). Kyren has a bad rush potential (11th)
Pace of play is 1st.
- Jones is to cheap on the weekend long slates, but in general, he has quietly had atleast 5 targets in 3 straight games which may be the best PPR floor of the weekend, as long as he doesn't fumble, I can see a 70%+ snap share for a playoff game here and think he is viable. I kind of like other players over Addison in full weekend slates, he has a 21% target share/10.9 aDOT, which are fine, but he is priced around Kupp/McLaurin/Pickens/Smith/etc. Jefferson is one of the few WRs we have mentioned that also has a 31% target share in his L4, with a 9 aDOT, he is also averaging 2.25 rz targets/g in that same span, which gives him big time equity, obviosuly a capt. candidate in the showdown. I want to trust Hockenson, but wth is happening on his targets, as he has about a 50% catch rate on his 17.5% target share his L4, 17.5%/9.3 aDOT are fine numbers for a TE, but he isn't seening much RZ work (0.5 targets/g) either, I'd rather fade I think.
In LARs L4 meaningful games, Puka has had a MASSIVE 43.7% target share, while his aDOT has been very poor at 5.7, that kind of PPR upside is kind of nutty, and can be considered as capt. as well. I was hoping there would be a bigger gap in the Nacua vs Kupp pricing, as it wouldn't shock me to see him have a better game, but the gap really isn't big enough for what they have actually been producing on the field of late (Nacua 6 RZ targets to Kupps 1 as well), so I won't be doing that much. I'd dart throw higbee or parkinson over atwell/robinson if looking for salary saving options in showdown slate, as they are cheap and could easily see a RZ target, but would not recommend elsewhere. While I don't care to much for Kyrens PPR floor, as he is barely over 1 target/g in his L7, but he has 25 to 30 opp potential, and is one of the few backs who could see 90%+ of the snaps this slate, so he can be considered in all formats.
Saturday Main/2 Game Slate
LAC@HOU
Chargers have a meh P/RB matchup.
Texans have a bad P/RB matchup.
Herbert has a good pressure rate situation (5th), and a good pass potential (5th). Dobbins has a bad rush potential (10th).
Stroud has a meh pressure rate situation (8th), and a bad pass potential (12th). Mixon has a meh rush potential (7th).
Chargers TTR is 2nd.
Texans TTR is 3rd.
Pace of play is 6th. O/U Rank is 2nd (meh).
- On a full weekend slate, I don't think I want any 4 of these QBs to to much, but on the 2 game slate, we need to make decisions. The Chargers last 4 weeks with the full suite of WRs, Herbert has averaged 34.5 pass attempts, and keep in mind 2 of those games were in positive run script matchups. He is cheap enough to consider, but I don't have to play him, I mention the pass attempts because the WRs are of interest to me. Ladds price has sky rocketed, but still worthy in the 6K range, he has a 28% target share/8.9 aDOT, but if mass entering, I'd rather have more of QJ, the target share drops to 23%, but he has as similar aDOT and is priced in the 4K range --- he also has a greater RZ target share than McConkey. Both of these guys see boosts as Palmers 11% target share is opned up too. Got to admit, Dobbins has 20+ opp potential, but I think he has a low floor as well and despite the increased in pass attempt volume, his targets are very range-y. I'd include him only if mass entering.
Mixons L4(3) weeks have been baaaaaaad, 0 TDs, and hit over 10 points (10.6) just once, in a game where he needed 6 targets to get there. I do think he has 25+ opp potential, and I know he has the ability to be a safe floor option usually, he's also the cheapest he has been since Wk7. I am torn on him, I won't cross him off, but I'll probably be underweight. HOUs L3 meaningful games, Collins has just a 24% target share, which is lower than his early season avg, when both Dell/Diggs were healthy --- weird --- but he still has a 12 aDOT, and I can only imagine his target numbers going up, not down. I think he is a high floor/ceiling play. Can't trust Diontae... if Metchie is out, Woods and Hutchinson are cheap punt plays, would rather hutchinson I think. Schultz interests me the 2nd most on this team, he quietly had a 19.5% target share in the L3, with an ok aDOT of 7.3, with 1 RZ target/g. I think a 6-50-1 statline is attainable, that is almost 5x'ing his salary.
PIT@BAL
Steelers have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Ravens have a bad P/RB matchup.
Wilson has a bad pressure rate situation (11th), and a meh pass potential (9th). Najee/Warren has a bad rush potential (12th).
Lamar has a meh pressure rate situation (7th), but a great pass potential (3rd). Henry has a great rush potential (2nd).
Steelers TTR is 4th (meh).
Ravens TTR is 1st (great).
Pace of play is 4th (meh). O/U Rank is 1st (just into the normal range, but only 1 point higher than the game above).
- I was ready to scream Warren from the rooftops for like 6th~ week in a row --- from Wk14 to 17 he lead the backfield in snaps, he had 14 to 17 opps with at least 5 targets in 3 of those 4 --- that is really nice for a 5K piece, but last week in a game that was still imporant, they reverted back and he only saw 38% of snaps, and had just 7 opps (1 target). I want to avoid the situation in the backfield entirely, I will only have him in a lineup or 2 where mass entering. In the L2 games since pickens return, he has a mediorce 20% target share, but a good 14.4 aDOT, and when it comes to WR options, you know he is most likely to be funneled too, I don't hate him, but Freiermuth grades out better, he has quietly had a massive 30% target share, with an ok aDOT of 6.5, we expect them to be playing from behind, he could get overlooked. Williams is a punt dart throw, as he has a massive 24.6 aDOT, and there was a time BAL D was susceptible to the pass, only take a shot in a lineup or 2 if mass entering.
You can always argue Lamar has the highest floor/ceiling combo but it comes at a price, I won't talk anybody off a guy who can go 15+ Fpoints on total yardage, and another 15+ FPs on TDs but I am not sure how roster construction works just yet. In the 3 games without Justice, Henry has had 26/29/23 opps, all in mostly blowouts too, seeing over 2 targets/g (which is saying something for him), he finished with 23.9+ points in each, one against this very team. If you fade lamar, you should consider Henry (or both). No flowers, no 3rd back in Justice, L3 weeks Flowers has had a 22.7% target share, that raises all floors, and most of these other guys are cheappp on BAL. Bateman can make sense, although Agholor/Wallace could make tourney sense. I will note, most people will go here in lineups, and there is obviously a scenario where Lamars pass volume is wayy down/if they play with a lead, and if TDs are scored by the ground (lamar or Henry), the pivot could propel you do a high placement. I think Andrews was going to be a play of mine all week, he has a massive 24% target share in his L3, with an insane 13.25 aDOT... again the target share should absolutely increase, the same goes for likely and his 13.6%/8.2 aDOT. I want Andrews, but I will be making some with Likely.
Sunday Main/3 Game Slate
DEN@BUF
Broncos have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Bills have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Nix has a great pressure rate situation (3rd), but a meh pass potential (7th). McLuaghlin??? has a meh rush potential (9th).
Allen has a good pressure rate situation (6th), and a good pass potential (6th). Cook has a good rush potential (4th).
Broncos TTR is 6th (meh).
Bills TTR is 1st (great).
Pace of play is 2nd. O/U Rank is 2nd (good).
- Bo has been consistent mostly all year, and he took a bit of a lull in rushing upside mid late this year, but the last 4 weeks he has shown he isn't going away from it, with a projected passing script, and one of the best paces of the week, he is viable as the 5th priced QB on this slate (out of 6). Do we really want to trust a 3 headed backfield?! I don't, McLuaghlin is coming off an 18 touch performance, and is 4.9K, with probably sub 1% ownership, I guess I'd throw him in a lineup where mass entering. Suttons L4 weeks has seen him have a 24% target share/13 aDOT, he should be in all pools while in the 6K range. Taking out the low snap share due to a blowout, Mims has seen 47% snap share in 2 of those games, by far the highest on the season, and despite low snap counts in general, he has been 2nd in target share at 17%, he seems to have a knack for the endzone, and would treat him slightly higher than mclaughlin in terms of usage in lineups. Vele/Franklin maybe punt/salary saver options, prefer Vele and his 9 aDOT.
Allen, like Lamar, has a great floor/ceiling combo where I won't argue it if you want to play him. I want to have interest in Cook, but he is creeping towards 7K, and in his L6 games post bye, he has not hit 47%+ of snaps once, and has been capped at 15 opportunities, averaging 1.1 target/g, I know he gets TDs, but we know Allen is a vulture candidate too, I think I will fade the ownership here. BUF WRs give me a headache, and I feel like they are never healthy together. One of them will absolutely pass the salary standout check, but who do we go to? In the L5 meaningful games, Shakir does have a 24% target share, I do think he is the most reliable, but when looking at aDOT, Coleman has a big 18.8 one and has seen the field a lot since his return, I think I'm going to take him the most, sorry Cooper/Hollins. There's other TEs I prefer with better projections, and not time sharing, pass.
GBP@PHI
Packers have a bad P/RB matchup.
Eagles have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Love has a good pressure rate situation (4th), but a meh pass potential (8th). Jacobs has a good rush potential (6th).
Hurts? has a great pressure rate situation (2nd), but a bad pass potential (11th). Barkley has a great rush potential (3rd).
Packers TTR is 5th.
Eagles TTR is 3rd (good).
Pace of play is 5th. O/U Rank is 3rd.
- Jacobs has 20+ opp potential with maybe a 4 target floor, I obviously have problems with the tough matchup, and I know PHI can really slow down the pace if they play with a lead, so there are concerns, but I do think he will be the least owned expensive RB, who has upside like them all, so he isn't off my radar. When Watson is out, Wicks plays 70%+ of snaps, and he is priced in the 4K range, he is viable. But the most recent time he was out. Doubs came out with a 38% target share/8 aDOT, which if we can get close to that, he could smash at 5.4K. I do think all these guys are cheap, and similar to BUF atleast one will be a salary standout --- but not similar to BUF, it is a bit more concentrated, and the script favors them as opposed to BUF, so I will have mix's of each, but Doubs will be my favorite (followed by wicks then reed). Krafts aDOT if fine at 7~ but there are TEs with better floor/ceiling combos imo.
Barkleys floor is probably 25 opps, and his ceiling is over 30... no RB in the entire weekend can say that, and you can't write off his slate breaking upside. I know Goedert will sap some of this, but weeks 14 through 17, Brown/Smith combined for and 84% target share. That is filthy, both were over 35%. IF you don't play Barkley you have to consider one of these options at the least (even if you DO play him too). I can be talked off Browns price at 7.5K (even though I'll be sure to have shares), but Smith at 5.7K seems like a mispricing that I'll exploit.
WAS@TBB
Commanders have a good P/RB matchup.
Buccaneers have a great P/RB matchup.
Daniels has a bad pressure rate situation (10th), but a great pass potential (2nd). Br. Rob/Ekeler has a good rush potential (5th).
Baker has a great pressure rate situation (1st), and a great pass potential (1st). Bucky/White have a great rush potential (1st).
Commanders TTR is 4th (good).
Bucs TTR is 2nd (great).
Pace of play is 3rd. O/U Rank is 1st (great).
- This is going to be the game with the most popularity, and I can't really disagree. Daniels has had a great year, and may be matchup proof with his rushing upside, Weeks 13-17 he never had fewer than 9 carries, capping at 16-127 line on the ground (this rushing line 2x's his salary alone....) He may be the most popular QB, but he may be mine too. Tampa is kind of pass funnel, and WAS backs are all healthy, I don't really want to be apart of the backfield here, I guess an Ekeler lineup wouldnt hurt at that price, and potential for a PPR floor/ceiling game, but not going overboard. I thought going into this Ertz would project better, but a 12% target share over his L3 doesn't get me up at night, the only thing he has going for him is his 1.5 RZ targets/g in that span, but in a full weekend slate, the Freiers/Andrews still grade out better, and while he is the obvious choice on the 3 game slate, I wouldn't be afraid to get different at this position to create leverage, as it may be the highest variance position from this slates perspective. Idk why McLaurin is still in the 6K range, similar to Sutton, he is the WR1 seeing 26.5% target share, and a 12.7 aDOT, he also gets RZ work, do it if you want/can. Zaccheus is a good salary saving option, he quietly has had a 20% target share L4 and is cheap, Brown is cheaper, but he has the worst aDOT of the bunch, and a target share in the single digits, I'll pass.
In a closely contested must win game, Bucky finally separated from White with a season high 72% snap count (the prior 6~ weeks it was like 5X% to 4X% split). In translated to a 24 opp game (5 targets). I will say he is 7K now, but if he will have a 70%+ snap count, he is absolutely playable, if you think this returns closer to a 55-45~ range, maybe fade him. In the L6 weeks Evans has had a 30.5% target share combo'd with a 12.2 aDOT, he is Bakers #1 target in a game with the highest O/U of the week, I like him a lot. McMillian has came on strong, and still relatively cheap at 5.2K, I won't have a lot of him unless big stacking this one, but a 17.5%/10.8 aDOT is respectable. Pass on Shepard. If Otton was/is out I'd have interest in Durham at 3.1K, but otherwise I'll mostly pass on this situation unless getting different from Ertz.
Monday Night/Showdown Slate
MIN@LAR
Vikings have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Rams have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Darnold has a meh pressure rate situation (9th), but a good pass potential (4th). Jones has a meh rush potential (8th).
Stafford has a bad pressure rate situation (12th), and a bad pass potential (10th). Kyren has a bad rush potential (11th)
Pace of play is 1st.
- Jones is to cheap on the weekend long slates, but in general, he has quietly had atleast 5 targets in 3 straight games which may be the best PPR floor of the weekend, as long as he doesn't fumble, I can see a 70%+ snap share for a playoff game here and think he is viable. I kind of like other players over Addison in full weekend slates, he has a 21% target share/10.9 aDOT, which are fine, but he is priced around Kupp/McLaurin/Pickens/Smith/etc. Jefferson is one of the few WRs we have mentioned that also has a 31% target share in his L4, with a 9 aDOT, he is also averaging 2.25 rz targets/g in that same span, which gives him big time equity, obviosuly a capt. candidate in the showdown. I want to trust Hockenson, but wth is happening on his targets, as he has about a 50% catch rate on his 17.5% target share his L4, 17.5%/9.3 aDOT are fine numbers for a TE, but he isn't seening much RZ work (0.5 targets/g) either, I'd rather fade I think.
In LARs L4 meaningful games, Puka has had a MASSIVE 43.7% target share, while his aDOT has been very poor at 5.7, that kind of PPR upside is kind of nutty, and can be considered as capt. as well. I was hoping there would be a bigger gap in the Nacua vs Kupp pricing, as it wouldn't shock me to see him have a better game, but the gap really isn't big enough for what they have actually been producing on the field of late (Nacua 6 RZ targets to Kupps 1 as well), so I won't be doing that much. I'd dart throw higbee or parkinson over atwell/robinson if looking for salary saving options in showdown slate, as they are cheap and could easily see a RZ target, but would not recommend elsewhere. While I don't care to much for Kyrens PPR floor, as he is barely over 1 target/g in his L7, but he has 25 to 30 opp potential, and is one of the few backs who could see 90%+ of the snaps this slate, so he can be considered in all formats.
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