DFS/Props Week 13 2024 Discussion

Templates updated, hoping/should be able to get to details later tonight. At first glance, I notice there are NO bad o/u's, TT's, or pace of plays. Very interesting slate, especially if most people gravitate to the PHI/BAL game, which I think could be a mistake.

I’m really tempted to play AJ brown, we know ravens can stop the run so not sure bout Barkley today, sounds like smith might not play which I’m not sure thar actually good or bad? I just don’t thinj ravens gonna be able to stop this dude even tho their pass d has looked a bit better of late.
 
Bucky Irving gotta be a play either rushing or rush+rec ov 81.5 and a td. Panthers don’t stop running backs in any fashion, on ground, thru air, or getting into endzone and Bucky slowly taking this backfield over. Kid a beast.
 
Can’t believe I’m saying this cause I bang on Levis a ton but I’ve actually seen improvement from him, titans have played a brutal schedule. 205.5 feels short to me. I was trying to decide between Ridley and Westbrook-ikhine but then I’m like shit, why not just rock with Levis? His over 1.5 td passes at plus money is super tempting as well. I think titans live today, once again as a season progresses kingsbury offense seems to be getting figured out, now they lost eckler, titans front 4 can play. I actually lean under 216.5 for my guy Daniels.
 
Everything Steelers pass game and I think they find the endzone more often today!

Russ ov 224.5 pass and ov 1.5 td passes
Pickens ov 72.5 rec and a td
Austin ov 25.5 rec
 
James Conner is insanely low, is he really gonna get bottled up again this week? 46.5 feels like I gotta do it
 
Can’t believe I’m saying this cause I bang on Levis a ton but I’ve actually seen improvement from him, titans have played a brutal schedule. 205.5 feels short to me. I was trying to decide between Ridley and Westbrook-ikhine but then I’m like shit, why not just rock with Levis? His over 1.5 td passes at plus money is super tempting as well. I think titans live today, once again as a season progresses kingsbury offense seems to be getting figured out, now they lost eckler, titans front 4 can play. I actually lean under 216.5 for my guy Daniels.
I would be on pollard rush yds over if anything here
 
I would be on pollard rush yds over if anything here

Considered him but I like both tits wrs so Levis just makes sense to me. Gams script will play a big role. I’d prefer Washington get a lead but I think titans pretty live here. Imo 205 is just to short.
 
I would be on pollard rush yds over if anything here
be careful with Spears back, Look at his snaps week 10/11 with spears --- 54%/63%, and he had 13 opps in each (only 9 carries) --- both were neutral to positive scripts, so maybe in a game you think they lead maybe he can get more, but I'd definitely be cautious there.
 
Leviis number just kept going down, I’m not buying it, long as commanders play decent/get a lead I love this play, either way I like it.

Levi’s ov 201.5
Levis ov 1.5 tds

Russ number was dropping also and I’m all bout him, Pickens, and Austin

Russ ov 222.5
Russ ov 1.5 tds
Pickens ov 72.5 and a td
Austin alt number 50+


Played lot of alt numbers on lessor guys I think could hit a big play or just be better than number.

Palmer 50+ rec
Conner 60+ rushing
Stephenson 60+ rushing
Mitchell 60+ rec

Think there were a few more, I played a ton of props. Did a round robin with

Pickems
Nico
AJ brown
All over their rec yards and all to score a td (superate for yards and td).
 
J. Herbert Pass Yds O246.5 -110 (We know the pass rush isn't there for ATL, and his volume has been up since the bye.)
R.-R. McCloud Rec Yds O28.5 (I think they will be forced into higher volume, and he is practically an everydown player in that role.
A. Mitchell Rec Yds O38.5 (Colts down WR2 and WR5 --- last time 1 of the WR1-3s above him were out he played over 90% of snaps, this is low)
R. Stevenson Rush&Rec Yds O68.5 -110 (Simply to low for a bellcow that does it both.)
D. Schultz Receptions O2.5 -146 (you could easily go collins/dell/mixon, and this may be a gulp play, but the matchup is nice, and has hit this in 4 of his last 5 (in tougher matchups)
P. Washington Rec Yds O24.5 -110 (line is way to low, he is going to be playing 90%+ of snaps, and we know Lawrence likes to sling it).

Skipping Jets/Sea ---- I like Hall/Walker props, but not sure they really correlate together.

T. Pollard Rush Yds U62.5 -110 (mentioned above, but with spears back, he tends to struggle to get to 10 carries)
J. Daniels Rush Yds O42.5 -110 (Think TEN D forces him to buy time and get out of the pocket which can lead to some junk gains on the ground).

Skipping Pit/Cin --- I like Brown/Picken props but they seem high, and my gut says to fade this game a bit extra in DFS too.

T. Hockenson Rec Yds O50.5 -110
(love these 2 plays)
M. Harrison Jr. Rec Yds O60.5 -110 (love these 2 plays)


a side in each 1PM game I like above minus Jets/Sea, and Pit/Cin
 
Like Herbert and the reason for Palmer and alt numbers is I think they have bout figured out quinten Williams is more useless than a tank top in Buffalo. Last week Herbert just missed Palmer deep a few times, it gonna happen. Super confident he gets his over 37.5 but I think he going 50+ on one play sooner than later!
 
So imo this the prop of the night. They set this super short imo even tho we lost 3 yards overnight it still a banger for me.

Vele ov 37.5 rec
Vele 60+ +200
Vele td +300

This dude has become the clear cut number 2 on this team who throws quite a bit. He has cleared this easily in recent games and think aa Sutton draws more attention it just gives this kid more opportunity. The td a bit a flyer, as of now he hasn’t caught but 1 td but ya gotta think his level of involvement at some point some tds will come.

Few others I like

Ford ov 12.5 rec.

I want no part of cle wrs, juedy revenge has some appeal but I had nightmares of Sertain shutting him down and he starting to be priced more aggressively. But browns are gonna have to throw, no way a still not 100% Chubb will control this game, ford the 3rd down guy and donks not great defending RBs out of backfield.

Njoku 60+ +172
Njoku td +260

Again browns gonna have to throw and think the backs and te will be the guys who have a chance to be open, I thought Njoku regular numbers was pretty spot on so instead I thought it be worth taking a shot he has a bigger game.

Sutton td +150.. he been a td beast and clearly nix fav target, +150 a great price considering guys like AJ brown, Pickens, Nico were all around +110, Sutton is becoming that dude for this team so think we getting a good 20-30 cents of value here.

FanDuel gave me a 30% profit boost for a catch on 1st drive, Sutton was even money so instead I got +130, only $50 limit but 50 to with 65 on a guy catching 7-8-9 passes a game I figure what the hell.
 
I don’t say shit like this very often cause I don’t like to encourage ppl to think a play can’t lose, I did it with bills last night and even piled more on at half but that was circumstantial where I knew there was no chance a beat to shit niners team could compete in that weather. Anyways today I’m telling ya’ll that Vele number should close above 40 cause it is pound worthy imo. I just can’t see him not hitting this number
 
Winston to throw a pick at -155 (b365) is going to be included in multiple parlays today
 
This more just a degen shot but I parlayed all these guys to score a td

Sutton
Njoku
Williams

Paid almost 20-1! Wasn’t sure bout Williams cause donks backfield is all kinds of crowded, no clue who getting the carries but Williams still seems to be back of choice on goalline and brown’s are allowing like 1.5 rush tds per game and their defense has not traveled well. I still think their numbers skewed cause I believe they simply didn’t try as hard with Watson, that said saints still lit them up. Think brown’s only path to success is the offense playing well and I have no clue, unless Winston game has really improved it just a matter a time til he throws a pick or 3! Winston int prop was fairly cheap considering he bound to throw one soon and donks secondary is very tough. My concern despite world class secondary donks have very few picks. On other side nix not to throw a pick was fairly cheap, what sucks is they wouldn’t let me parlay those.
 
This more just a degen shot but I parlayed all these guys to score a td

Sutton
Njoku
Williams

Paid almost 20-1! Wasn’t sure bout Williams cause donks backfield is all kinds of crowded, no clue who getting the carries but Williams still seems to be back of choice on goalline and brown’s are allowing like 1.5 rush tds per game and their defense has not traveled well. I still think their numbers skewed cause I believe they simply didn’t try as hard with Watson, that said saints still lit them up. Think brown’s only path to success is the offense playing well and I have no clue, unless Winston game has really improved it just a matter a time til he throws a pick or 3! Winston int prop was fairly cheap considering he bound to throw one soon and donks secondary is very tough. My concern despite world class secondary donks have very few picks. On other side nix not to throw a pick was fairly cheap, what sucks is they wouldn’t let me parlay those.
Ha I'm not posting higher leveraged parlays w/Winston INT but have put it in with 3 different soccer parlays already to get those three winners at great prices
 
yes you[we] did

Man I had so much riding on Bucky Irving, feels stupid now cause he went off in 4th but man I was nervous, he was pretty much right on pace but then it looked like he may have got hurt at end the half. That was one those where I accidentally havs one guy left in multiple parlays and while I liked him a lot it turned out being worth way more than I intended! I was pacing, begging, throwing shit, all just to have him go HAM in 4th after sneaking over. Lol
 
Ha I'm not posting higher leveraged parlays w/Winston INT but have put it in with 3 different soccer parlays already to get those three winners at great prices

That’s an idea cause they won’t let me put it in sgp’s
 
That’s an idea cause they won’t let me put it in sgp’s
Did 3 different parlays

Fenerbahce (just kicked), Sevilla, Atalanta tt o .5 (they're playing all out of sorts Roma today, -500 to score a goal the INT prop brought it down to -103!)

For me that's how you have some fun with -500 to -600 games, find that -150 or so prop to brink it down to basically a pk em and if Jameis somehow doesn't throw one, you just tip the cap or completely go bolistic on the motherfucker that dropped one!
 
Also not like I'm digging into some crazy soccer leagues, that's Turkey Super, Spain La Liga, Italy Serie A....-115, +222, -103 is how those 3 parlays priced out. Now just hope all three are alive for MNF! I feel confident they all should be.
 
Did 3 different parlays

Fenerbahce (just kicked), Sevilla, Atalanta tt o .5 (they're playing all out of sorts Roma today, -500 to score a goal the INT prop brought it down to -103!)

For me that's how you have some fun with -500 to -600 games, find that -150 or so prop to brink it down to basically a pk em and if Jameis somehow doesn't throw one, you just tip the cap or completely go bolistic on the motherfucker that dropped one!

I can’t believe his int drops it that low. She has a few dr appointments, I dunno if I got time to get back across river or not but gonna give jt a shot! Well I guess I get it dripping that low cause his int is only -130 or somethin (forget now, just know it wasn’t too high) so really just shaving 40 cents or so, long the soccer can’t lose I’m with it. It piss me off If being to greedy to lay 40 cents cost me a bet! Lol
 
I can’t believe his int drops it that low. She has a few dr appointments, I dunno if I got time to get back across river or not but gonna give jt a shot! Well I guess I get it dripping that low cause his int is only -130 or somethin (forget now, just know it wasn’t too high) so really just shaving 40 cents or so, long the soccer can’t lose I’m with it. It piss me off If being to greedy to lay 40 cents cost me a bet! Lol
His INT is -155 in those, that's as low as I could find it on bet 365

Sevilla ML is only -105 so that's a little risk but at home I'm on it regardless, thus the +222 on that one
 
Im so invested in the Vele prop and pretty decent size play on ford. Smaller on others I prob dont need more action. lol
 
Im almost positive fan duel had him lower than -150 early this morning but could have easily moved by now.
Just logged into FD to look it up for you, it's -168 there

BTW I hate logging in to them, haven't in quite awhile and instantly 6 texts and 2 emails like I suddenly want to do business with them again. Man that algo they have programed for a random log in is on you like a hawk when you haven't logged in for a few months. Phone just blew up with FD texts lol
 
Just logged into FD to look it up for you, it's -168 there

BTW I hate logging in to them, haven't in quite awhile and instantly 6 texts and 2 emails like I suddenly want to do business with them again. Man that algo they have programed for a random log in is on you like a hawk when you haven't logged in for a few months. Phone just blew up with FD texts lol

Lolz I know around 5-6am he was below -150 or I wouldn’t have even tried to put in the sgp but they wouldn’t let me. Guess I should have grabbed, i think it was -130, might have been -140, I was looking at nix not to throw a int, each were one those numbers super early. Dont surprise me it been getting blasted up tho
 
This more just a degen shot but I parlayed all these guys to score a td

Sutton
Njoku
Williams

Paid almost 20-1! Wasn’t sure bout Williams cause donks backfield is all kinds of crowded, no clue who getting the carries but Williams still seems to be back of choice on goalline and brown’s are allowing like 1.5 rush tds per game and their defense has not traveled well. I still think their numbers skewed cause I believe they simply didn’t try as hard with Watson, that said saints still lit them up. Think brown’s only path to success is the offense playing well and I have no clue, unless Winston game has really improved it just a matter a time til he throws a pick or 3! Winston int prop was fairly cheap considering he bound to throw one soon and donks secondary is very tough. My concern despite world class secondary donks have very few picks. On other side nix not to throw a pick was fairly cheap, what sucks is they wouldn’t let me parlay those.
Quick 2 outta 3!! Let's gooo
 
I went in on the Vele train... Let's finish strong here.. please lol
Yeah, he's only had one true target since the early catch.

Broncos started running ball well last drive so that can't help.

Just need a big chunk pass and we'll be fine.
 
Yeah, he's only had one true target since the early catch.

Broncos started running ball well last drive so that can't help.

Just need a big chunk pass and we'll be fine.

Fucking Jamis and his constant pick 6’s I think really hurt donks props. He gave them so many points they didn’t need to do all that much on offense. Fucking can’t believe I got the Williams td run, Njoku td, and Sutton was the one that kept me from cashing the 20-1 td parlay. Again if Winston doesn’t hand them 14 points maybe it works out different. It no shock Winston throwing a pick or 2 but damn, every time he forced it down the field ford was wide open for a 1st down! Luckily he finally got a catch and cashed his number on last drive but he should have had 5-6 catches and 60+ yards, had Jamis simply checked it to him instead of forcing those terrible pick 6’s browns would have has a real chance to cover at minimum and maybe win. Can’t believe after all these years he hasn’t figured out it ok to check it down to the rb! Especially against a team with world class corners and known for not covering the backs very well. Mfer asking god to have him stop throwing pick 6’s! If you believe in god you need to understand if he real he was giving you the check down all night, you can be lead to water but can’t make you drink, if you insist on forcing it when the running backs wide open with all kinds of green in front of them it not on god. It on your inability to see the whole field or take the easy play: freaking dumb shit.
 
I like Winston but I get real tired of him involving god in helping his play. Mfer if you truly believe in god why don’t you ask him to help the ppl freezing on the street or dying of cancer, not improve your shitty football game! That shit really pisses me off, I don’t really believe in any that shit but I’d like to think if there is a god he could be doing things a lot more helpful to us all than giving a shit how some overpaid jerkoff plays a game!!
 
Fucking Jamis and his constant pick 6’s I think really hurt donks props. He gave them so many points they didn’t need to do all that much on offense. Fucking can’t believe I got the Williams td run, Njoku td, and Sutton was the one that kept me from cashing the 20-1 td parlay. Again if Winston doesn’t hand them 14 points maybe it works out different. It no shock Winston throwing a pick or 2 but damn, every time he forced it down the field ford was wide open for a 1st down! Luckily he finally got a catch and cashed his number on last drive but he should have had 5-6 catches and 60+ yards, had Jamis simply checked it to him instead of forcing those terrible pick 6’s browns would have has a real chance to cover at minimum and maybe win. Can’t believe after all these years he hasn’t figured out it ok to check it down to the rb! Especially against a team with world class corners and known for not covering the backs very well. Mfer asking god to have him stop throwing pick 6’s! If you believe in god you need to understand if he real he was giving you the check down all night, you can be lead to water but can’t make you drink, if you insist on forcing it when the running backs wide open with all kinds of green in front of them it not on god. It on your inability to see the whole field or take the easy play: freaking dumb shit.
Honestly that drive that McLaughlin got going was the one that changed the ride offensively.

Bo trusts Sutton and Mims more as well, it seems.
 
Not mad at the play.

That's one of those games you see the final stats and figure an easy win. I've been on wrong side of those many times.

Killer week on props everyone!
 
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