Week 5 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Finally had a decent week last week, as the posted write-ups went 11-5, bringing the year long total to 27-29. I'll need a good follow up week to get to the positive side of things, so that's the goal for now.

I actually screwed up and deleted some thoughts I had for the Friday night games, of which there are a few tonight, but I didn't actually say anything meaningful on any of the games, so I'll just spare you the details. The weeknight moratorium remains. Sorry for the late start.

Purdue +11.5 WIN
Iowa +11 LOSS
Kentucky +7 WIN
TCU +5.5 WIN
Oregon State +10.5 LOSS: Looks like Jonathan Smith needs to find a QB. Disgraceful.
Northwestern +25.5 WIN
Florida State -6.5 LOSS: As Mike Tyson would say, "I take my hand off to them" (Wake)
James Madison -21.5 WIN
Georgia -29 LOSS
Virginia Tech +9.5 LOSS: It's impossible to fail to crack 300 yards of offense against North Carolina. Impossible I tell you.
Mississippi State -4 WIN
Central Michigan +7 LOSS
Rutgers +39.5 WIN: By a whisker. The Rutgers ATS correlation continues
Cal +4 LOSS "Cal may actually have an offense!" LOL
LSU -8 LOSS: LSU won by 4, which about 60 other teams would also have done in that spot.
Troy +5 WIN
Indiana +5 LOSS: Top 2 receivers out? Too bad.

8-9 (35-38 for the year)

1. Purdue +11.5 @Minnesota: All signs point to Aiden O'Connell being back for this game, but if he isn't, I would need at least 14, and probably more than that to make this play. He's a major difference maker for the Boilers, and regardless of how good Minnesota has looked on defense(and they've looked good) O'Connell will move the ball on anyone. With Kirk Cirocca back at OC, the Minnesota pass offense is capable of moving the ball through the air on just about every defense, and we saw last week that that is especially true against shitty pass defenses like Michigan State. Although defense is not Purdue's specialty under Brohm, they are competent on that side of the ball against everyone other than Ohio State, and we have to remember that they yakked away a win against Penn State in week 1, a performance that looks even better now that we've seen more from Penn State. PJ Fleck at times can be his offense's worst enemy as he often insists on a 75/25 split run to pass despite the fact that his team might be averaging 15 yards per attempt in the passing game. I suspect he'll be stubborn in that regard this week as he'll want to keep Brohm's offense off the field. This will probably get the clock running and will keep this score down. Under Brohn, this road underdog role is right in Purdue's comfort zone, as they are 14-5 as road dogs in his tenure, and 8-2 ATS in conference games. I don't suspect I'll be opposite of Minnesota all that often this year, but when they're laying double digits against a covering machine like Purdue with this likely game scenario, I'll make an exception.

Late note: Still waiting on this. O'Connell still not confirmed. If he's not playing, we'd need a lot more points to make this play.
 
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2. @Iowa +11 v Michigan: I have to say that I was surprised that Michigan didn't handle Maryland a little more easily last week. I like that they went with McCarthy at QB, a decision helped along by Cade McNamara's injury, but one that was probably destined to happen anyway. McCarthy is much more explosive than McNamara, but you wouldn't have known it last week. The Wolverines were much more reliant on RB Blake Corum than I thought they'd be, but he delivered for them. They get some useful pieces back this year, but I don't think they are set up for success playing their first road game against a defense like Iowa's in a venue like Kinnick Stadium, where top 10 teams have gone to die in recent years. We all know Iowa's offense is an embarrassment, but worse Iowa teams have won games like this in outright fashion due to whatever you want to call it, Kinnick voodoo magic, Iowa turnover luck, whatever. If Michigan is going to move the ball and score on Iowa, they'll need to do a lot of things different than they did against Maryland. Iowa lost one of their better linebackers, but they still have Jack Campbell and Riley Moss, and they'll fight tooth and nail throughout this game. If McCarthy and Michigan handle them easily, I'll tip my cap, but there's a lot of history that suggests this game will be close to the end.
 
3. Kentucky +7(-115) @Ole Miss: The bottom line on this one is that I don't think this version of Ole Miss is capable of getting a two score win over Kentucky. The Kentucky offense has not been good, especially in the run game. Kavosiey Smoke hasn't been good, and he's really never been all that good even in previous years. Luckily for the Wildcats, Chris Rodriguez is back this week, and he makes a major difference in the Cats run game. He breaks tackles, runs hard and essentially moves the chains for the that offense. QB Will Levis was hyped as a top 10 draft pick, but he hasn't shown that kind of potential this year. He used to have a major run element to his game, but that hasn't been evident this year. He has however averaged more than 10 yards per attempt, so the Kentucky offense does have some promise. Defensively, however, they are the real deal, especially against the pass, which was most evident when they completely took Anthony Richardson out of the game in Gainesville. This Ole Miss offense hasn't really accomplished much through the air, so if they'll be looking to run on Kentucky. They might have some success, but I can't see any way they leave the Wildcats in the rearview mirror unless they have some success in the pass game. Jaxson Dart just hasn't been the answer thus far, and he's unlikely to be anything resembling that against a Kentucky team that ranks 15th in yards per attempt against. With the addition of Rodriguez back into the fold (especially after Ole Miss just gave up 6.1 yards per rush against Tulsa last week)and a stern Kentucky defense, I have a hard time visualizing a Dart led Ole miss offense running away from Kentucky. It looks more like a tossup to me.
 
4. @TCU +5.5 v Oklahoma: I really liked Kansas State last week against the Sooners, and I like TCU this week for a lot of the same reasons. QB Max Duggan has been very good this year, and his game is similar to that of Adrian Martinez. He's certainly a capable thrower, but he is adept at running the ball, as is TCU's whole offense. The Frogs rank 2nd in yards per rush and are 6th in the country in yards per play overall. When I made the play on K State last week, I assumed that K State's pressure would force Dylan Gabriel into a bunch of mistakes. He actually played very well, so I was wrong about that, but even so, with a great performance by Gabriel, the Sooners still lost. I think this TCU line and those TCU backs have a great shot at a bunch of explosive plays, and if Gabriel throws them a couple this week, as I suspect, the Frogs should be in a great spot for the upset. Oklahoma gave up 275 yards rushing to Kansas State a couple weeks ago. This TCU team is obviously capable of those type of numbers or better, and this Oklahoma team won't be as lucky to find an obliging defense on the road like they did with Nebraska a couple weeks ago.
 
5.Oregon State +10.5 @Utah: I'm actually surprised this line hasn't risen, but keep an eye on it overnight, because it's possible a better line will emerge. This week has quite a few examples of teams finding themselves in comfortable ATS scenarios, and Oregon State is one of the best examples of that The Beavers under Jonathan Smith have been money in these type of scenarios(9-3 as a conference road dog, 13-5 as a road dog overall). I didn't have a dog in the fight last week, but I am still sick to my stomach that the beavers were unable to come up with the outright victory over USC last week. Utah is obviously a solid team, but they have faced only 1 good running team, Florida, and the Gators piled up almost 300 yards on them. Since then Arizona State, Southern Utah and San Diego State have all been stuffed by the Utes, but Oregon State is a top 25 rushing offense. Utah has UCLA and USC on deck, so they'll find themselves potentially looking past the Beavers, a phenomenon that comes up a lot n the PAC 12 and probably explains the good Beaver record in an underdog role. Surprisingly, these two teams are evenly matched in a lot of areas, and despite the tough result last week, the Beavers have shown no evidence under Smith of failing to show up in games like this. Can't pass up Oregon State as a double digit dog.
 
Br@ssknux said:
2. @Iowa +11 v Michigan: I have to say that I was surprised that Michigan didn't handle Maryland a little more easily last week. I like that they went with McCarthy at QB, a decision helped along by Cade McNamara's injury, but one that was probably destined to happen anyway. McCarthy is much more explosive than McNamara, but you wouldn't have known it last week. The Wolverines were much more reliant on RB Blake Corum than I thought they'd be, but he delivered for them. They get some useful pieces back this year, but I don't think they are set up for success playing their first road game against a defense like Iowa's in a venue like Kinnick Stadium, where top 10 teams have gone to die in recent years. We all know Iowa's offense is an embarrassment, but worse Iowa teams have won games like this in outright fashion due to whatever you want to call it, Kinnick voodoo magic, Iowa turnover luck, whatever. If Michigan is going to move the ball and score on Iowa, they'll need to do a lot of things different than they did against Maryland. Iowa lost one of their better linebackers, but they still have Jack Campbell and Riley Moss, and they'll fight tooth and nail throughout this game. If McCarthy and Michigan handle them easily, I'll tip my cap, but there's a lot of history that suggests this game will be close to the end.
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Wish this was at night
 
Br@ssknux said:
2. @Iowa +11 v Michigan: I have to say that I was surprised that Michigan didn't handle Maryland a little more easily last week. I like that they went with McCarthy at QB, a decision helped along by Cade McNamara's injury, but one that was probably destined to happen anyway. McCarthy is much more explosive than McNamara, but you wouldn't have known it last week. The Wolverines were much more reliant on RB Blake Corum than I thought they'd be, but he delivered for them. They get some useful pieces back this year, but I don't think they are set up for success playing their first road game against a defense like Iowa's in a venue like Kinnick Stadium, where top 10 teams have gone to die in recent years. We all know Iowa's offense is an embarrassment, but worse Iowa teams have won games like this in outright fashion due to whatever you want to call it, Kinnick voodoo magic, Iowa turnover luck, whatever. If Michigan is going to move the ball and score on Iowa, they'll need to do a lot of things different than they did against Maryland. Iowa lost one of their better linebackers, but they still have Jack Campbell and Riley Moss, and they'll fight tooth and nail throughout this game. If McCarthy and Michigan handle them easily, I'll tip my cap, but there's a lot of history that suggests this game will be close to the end.
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i agree, too many points. gl brass
 
6. Northwestern +25.5 @Penn State: The Cats have been a little bit of a laughingstock in recent weeks due to home losses against Southern Illinois and Miami(OH), both embarrassing when you consider one is an FCS team and the other was without their starting QB. However, even when Northwestern is good, they almost always perform like absolute dogshit when they are favored at home, especially in the non-conference. In 2017 they almost lost as a 24 point favorite to Nevada and then did lose by 24 at Duke in the non conference before rattling off 7 straight wins and covers in conference. Same in '18...they lost to Akron and Duke at home before winning the Big Ten West, so Northwestern looking terrible in the early season is nothing new. They now travel to Happy valley as a huge dog, but the difference this year is that their offense has some punch to it. Despite the losses, they've comfortably outgained everyone they've played and put 500 yards up on both of the Power 5 teams they've played, including Elko's much improved defense at Duke. I really like what Penn State has done, but let's not forget that they escaped Purdue by the skin of their teeth, and even that terrible Auburn offense(though incapable of actually scoring) moved the ball up and down the field on them with both TJ Finley and Robby Ashford. Ultimately, I don't think the Cats are anywhere near as bad as their results this year. In the past in this situation they've turned around and fired off a bunch of wins. I'm not saying they're going to win, but 25.5? That's a lot of points. Penn State is looking forward to an off week next week, but after that they have Michigan, Minnesota and Ohio State. They could get caught napping here.
 
7. @Florida State -6.5 v Wake Forest: I was burned by Wake last week because I overestimated how good Clemson's defense was, especially the secondary, who Sam Hartman absolutely torched last week. FSU is a bit banged up up front, but Wake can't really run the ball on anyone, so I don't think that will be much of a factor. Even when short handed, I've thought that the Noles have looked good defending the pass. Daniels from LSU couldn't find anyone open in the opener, and Malik Cunningham ran into the same thing when the Noles played Louisville. Both of those guys ran on the Noles, but I don't see that coming from Hartman. On the other side of the ball, I can't see how Wake slows down Jordan Travis and this Noles offense. I don' think they have anyone that can cover Johnny Wilson, or any of the Noles receivers for that matter(note the issues they had with Clemson's big receivers on jump balls last week), and Wake has had all kinds of trouble getting off the field on 3rd down. It's also a terrible spot for them to get off the mat after the tough loss to Clemson and play down in Tallahassee the next week. It's a lot to ask of the Deacs in my opinion.
 
8. @James Madison -21.5 v Texas State: I hemmed and hawed on this one, but after some additional looking, I need to lay it with the Dukes here. Obviously, I'm a fan of Coach Cignetti and the Dukes after the comeback they embarked on at Appy State last week. They were down 28-7 or whatever at halftime and stormed all the way back to win outright. It was a validation of sorts after their stunningly good opener against what has turned out to be a very explosive offense in MTSU. They're a big favorite this week against Texas State, but after looking closely at this one, I can't see how the Bobcats are going to have much success on offense here. Two of the three FBS teams that the Bobcats have played are FIU and Nevada and yet they still rank south of 100th in pretty much every offensive category. Defensively, their numbers are ok, but how could they not against those two offenses. On the flip side, JMU leads the nation in rushing defense and is right there with Bama in yards per play. Offensively, Todd Centaio has been just about as efficient as anyone at QB (10th in the country in passer rating, 11/0 ratio). JMU has been dominant so far, and both of the FBS teams they've played are a huge upgrade over this Texas State squad.That trip to Harrisonburg, Virginia was a nightmare for MTSU, and I suspect it will be just as bad for the Bobcats. I don't think this one will be close. JMU is still building their brand in FBS, so they won't let up on anyone.
 
9. Georgia -29 @Missouri: Just gonna put this in now even though it's out of chronological order. I got this one at 27.5 earlier in the week and then it sat at 28 until this morning, but now that it's moving up, I'll write it up here. I really don't think it's going to matter where this line ends up because we all saw last week how bad Missouri is right now. Auburn was begging them to take the game last week and they couldn't do it. I submit that everyone in Jordan Hare stadium wouldn't have cared if Missouri won that game because it would have just ended the march toward the inevitable. Mizzou QB Brady Cook completed a nice ball at the end of the game last week, but a dead Auburn defense completely shut him down for the better part of that game. He has no chance in hell of doing anything Georgia doesn't want him to do this week, and Missouri's defense will probably be in the same boat. Georgia is a machine at covering as a road favorite (13-4 in their last 17) and after that performance last week against Kent, they are going to be looking to re-establish themselves as the top team in the country. I pity the Tigers in this one. I don't see how this will be any different than the Dawgs game in Columbia a couple weeks ago.
 
Br@ssknux said:
5.Oregon State +10.5 @Utah: I'm actually surprised this line hasn't risen, but keep an eye on it overnight, because it's possible a better line will emerge. This week has quite a few examples of teams finding themselves in comfortable ATS scenarios, and Oregon State is one of the best examples of that The Beavers under Jonathan Smith have been money in these type of scenarios(9-3 as a conference road dog, 13-5 as a road dog overall). I didn't have a dog in the fight last week, but I am still sick to my stomach that the beavers were unable to come up with the outright victory over USC last week. Utah is obviously a solid team, but they have faced only 1 good running team, Florida, and the Gators piled up almost 300 yards on them. Since then Arizona State, Southern Utah and San Diego State have all been stuffed by the Utes, but Oregon State is a top 25 rushing offense. Utah has UCLA and USC on deck, so they'll find themselves potentially looking past the Beavers, a phenomenon that comes up a lot n the PAC 12 and probably explains the good Beaver record in an underdog role. Surprisingly, these two teams are evenly matched in a lot of areas, and despite the tough result last week, the Beavers have shown no evidence under Smith of failing to show up in games like this. Can't pass up Oregon State as a double digit dog.
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This is such an interesting game.
Lean this too.
 
Br@ssknux said:
6. Northwestern +25.5 @Penn State: The Cats have been a little bit of a laughingstock in recent weeks due to home losses against Southern Illinois and Miami(OH), both embarrassing when you consider one is an FCS team and the other was without their starting QB. However, even when Northwestern is good, they almost always perform like absolute dogshit when they are favored at home, especially in the non-conference. In 2017 they almost lost as a 24 point favorite to Nevada and then did lose by 24 at Duke in the non conference before rattling off 7 straight wins and covers in conference. Same in '18...they lost to Akron and Duke at home before winning the Big Ten West, so Northwestern looking terrible in the early season is nothing new. They now travel to Happy valley as a huge dog, but the difference this year is that their offense has some punch to it. Despite the losses, they've comfortably outgained everyone they've played and put 500 yards up on both of the Power 5 teams they've played, including Elko's much improved defense at Duke. I really like what Penn State has done, but let's not forget that they escaped Purdue by the skin of their teeth, and even that terrible Auburn offense(though incapable of actually scoring) moved the ball up and down the field on them with both TJ Finley and Robby Ashford. Ultimately, I don't think the Cats are anywhere near as bad as their results this year. In the past in this situation they've turned around and fired off a bunch of wins. I'm not saying they're going to win, but 25.5? That's a lot of points. Penn State is looking forward to an off week next week, but after that they have Michigan, Minnesota and Ohio State. They could get caught napping here.
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Great thoughts here.

This is situationally, not a great spot for PSU.
 
10. Virginia Tech +9.5 @North Carolina: VT looked awful last week at home against West Virginia, especially on offense. Their running game has been the major problem, leading to 3rd and longs that QB Grant Wells can't really deal with, resulting in a lot of turnovers. However, this week they get a chance to play the Tar Heels, who have not been able to separate themselves from anybody on the scoreboard because of their heinous defense. Appy State and Notre Dame, two offenses that have otherwise not done jack shit, rolled up 649 and 576 yards respectively. The worst part of that is Carolina's offense has been really good behind QB Drake Maye, so they should be rolling. As a result of that D, Apy State had them beat, Georgia State stayed within a TD and Notre Dame pretty much ran them out of Kenan Stadium last week in 45-32 win that wasn't even that close. VT might get a boost if their top RB Malachi Thomas comes back(he's a game time decision), but even if he doesn't The Heels are likely to make Grant Wells look like he's Drew Pyne (Ha Ha). The VT defense under Brent Pry has been pretty good thus far, so they'll compete against this offense. I just don't think this UNC defense will allow the Heels to run away in this one.
 
11. @Mississippi State -4 v Texas A&M: A&M was extremely fortunate to beat Arkansas last week in a game that Arkansas played poorly and ultimately just handed to the Aggies. The A&M offense has been berated by just about everyone, and with good reason. It doesn't matter who they play at QB, they can't move the ball consistently, and unless Devon Achane breaks a long one, they are pretty much incapable of sustaining long drives. They couldn't do it against Appy State, they couldn't do it against Miami and they couldn't do it last week against the Hogs. Miami actually dominated them in total yardage, and that looks even worse now after we saw what happened to the Canes against MTSU. A&M should actually be 1-3, and they didn't look good in the Sam Houston State game either. Now they have to travel to Starkville and face a Bulldog team and an above average defense that will be raring to go. To make matters worse, Anais Smith, who represents most of the paltry production the Aggies get from their passing game, is now out for the year with a broken fibula. In Mike Leach's career, he's had 3 QBs who have been 3 year starters, and in those seasons, his teams won 10+ games. Will Rogers is now in his third year in Leach's system, so this shapes up to be a great year for the Bulldogs, and they've already lost one. A&M will have to play a spectacular game on defense to keep MSU in the teens, which is where they'll need to be to win this one, or even perhaps keep it close. It's a good spot for the Bulldogs, having gotten right after their LSU debacle last week against Bowling Green. I like their chances in this one. If they avoid turnovers (or getting stopped on downs deep in their own territory, as Leach seems to like to do), they should be in great shape.
 
Br@ssknux said:
10. Virginia Tech +9.5 @North Carolina: VT looked awful last week at home against West Virginia, especially on offense. Their running game has been the major problem, leading to 3rd and longs that QB Grant Wells can't really deal with, resulting in a lot of turnovers. However, this week they get a chance to play the Tar Heels, who have not been able to separate themselves from anybody on the scoreboard because of their heinous defense. Appy State and Notre Dame, two offenses that have otherwise not done jack shit, rolled up 649 and 576 yards respectively. The worst part of that is Carolina's offense has been really good behind QB Drake Maye, so they should be rolling. As a result of that D, Apy State had them beat, Georgia State stayed within a TD and Notre Dame pretty much ran them out of Kenan Stadium last week in 45-32 win that wasn't even that close. VT might get a boost if their top RB Malachi Thomas comes back(he's a game time decision), but even if he doesn't The Heels are likely to make Grant Wells look like he's Drew Pyne (Ha Ha). The VT defense under Brent Pry has been pretty good thus far, so they'll compete against this offense. I just don't think this UNC defense will allow the Heels to run away in this one.
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1576279489813786625
 
12. Central Michigan +7(-116) @Toledo: Sorry for the lateness on this one.... I think Toledo is a bit overrated. I think most people think they are the best in the MAC, but DeQuan Finn hasn't been all that good despite games with UMass and San Diego State on the schedule. Defensively, it's hard not to look good in those games either, but the one good team they played was Ohio State and the Buckeyes put up 77 and 763 yards. I know it's Ohio State, but that's a pretty helpless effort. CMU meanwhile has traveled to both Oklahoma State and Penn State and hung with both, only being outgained by 40 yards last week in Happy Valley. They have an established solid QB in Daniel Richardson and Lew Nichols is a bowling ball, although he's gotten off to a slow start this year. CMU is 6-1 in their last 7 as a road dog, and when these relatively evenly matched teams match up in the MAC, the dog is usually a good play. Now that I can get it at 7, I'm a buyer.
 
13. Rutgers +39.5 @Ohio State: There's not much to say about this one other than Rutgers almost always covers as a road dog in the Big Ten(7-1 under Schaino). Day and Schiano are buddies, and there's very little reason for the Buckeyes to try to run it up on them. Also, you have to hand it to Rutgers...they almost always play hard and make themselves a pestilence on the opponent in these situations. Last year they had a 20-13 rock fight at Michigan, and 2 years ago they somehow were still in the game in the 4th quarter in Columbus. Can they score 10 points? If so they almost certainly cover. Not much analysis here, just going off previous history.
 
Love the card. Can you speak to your opinion on the beatdown total in the Central Michigan game? It dropped almost 10 points since the open and Im a contrarian. Is there any reason the opening Under was hit so hard that you know of. Injuries, weather etc?
 
14. Cal +4 @Washington State: Cal had an impressive win last week, taking care of Arizona and doing it with a bit of a flourish offensively. They may have found something with freshman running back Jayden Ott, and Cal's offense is coming together with jack Plummer at QB. They easily could be 4-0 if they wouldn't have had that phantom offsides called in the Notre Dame game which gifted the Irish a TD. Defensively, Cal is a solid squad, so if they can get some offense sustained, they could be a tough out going forward. This week they find themselves in their comfortable role as a road dog. Wilcox is 10-2 in his last 12 in that role, and the situation favors them this week as well as the Cougs have to pick themselves up off the deck after getting blitzed in the 4th quarter last week against Oregon to cough up a 12 point 4th quarter lead. The Cougs ended up giving up 600+ yards in that game, so they might be ripe for the picking again. Wazzou is tricky on offense, but I think this Cal defense might be tougher to crack for them. I think Cal might be the better squad overall here so I'll take the 4.
 
PNGFROM2003 said:
Love the card. Can you speak to your opinion on the beatdown total in the Central Michigan game? It dropped almost 10 points since the open and Im a contrarian. Is there any reason the opening Under was hit so hard that you know of. Injuries, weather etc?
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Good question. Frankly, I pay so little attention to totals that I didn't even notice. With my luck Richardson and Nichols are out LOL
 
15. LSU -8 @Auburn: As I've mentioned as nauseum, I don't know that there's anybody at Auburn, including Harsin(now that Boise might be open again soon) that even care that much about winning, given how this season is looking. The team looks dead, their offense can't move the ball, and when they do they can't cash in with scores, and even their defense is struggling, ranking 88th against the pass despite not playing any capable passing teams. I'm not sure if he's engaged, but Boutte will be back at WR for LSU, so they'll have a competent pass offense. In order to win this game, Auburn will need an emotional, committed effort and they'll have to have a raucous atmosphere. In this current environment, I don't know if any of that is even possible. As LSU moves along, they are going to keep improving under Kelly, and I think this might be a break out for them against a dead in the water opponent.
 
16. Troy +5 @Western Kentucky: There's a lot of WKU love out there because they beat FIU 73-0 last week. Congrats. Also, congrats on winning at Hawaii. I'll give them credit for being good enough to blow a lead at Indiana, but I think Troy is the better team here. They all but beat Appy State on the road and then completely took apart a Marshall team that two weeks ago dominated Notre Dame. I actually liked Marshall against the Trojans last week, but that was my worst call of the week, and I'm not afraid to learn from it. QB Gunnar Watson is solid, having thrown effectively two games in a row, and now they have Carlton Martial back on defense who might be the best defensive player in the country. He was all over the field last week in the Marshall game, and was the main reason the Herd only had 174 yards. WKU has been good with the FCS transfer QB Austin Reed, but they have their work cut out for them this week. I think the wrong team might be favored.
 
17. Indiana +5 @Nebraska: Does anyone still think Nebraska is good, or at least good enough to be favored against a competent team? I might be in the minority, but I think Indiana's offense is competent, and if anyone has actually watched Nebraska play defense this year, you would know that they cannot stop a soul. They're 121st in yards per play against, 124th in yards per rush attempt, 95th in yards per pass and 127th on 3rd down. They don't generate pressure either. They were completely blown out by an Oklahoma team that has struggled since, and were torched by Northwestern, who has pretty much failed miserably since. Say what you will about Indiana, but they are the only team that's been able to get anything going against Illinois(a game they were overwhelmingly lucky to win) which is saying something. I'm not a huge fan of Casey Thompson, and I think Indiana has a couple playmakers on defense that can keep Nebraska from getting much going. Ultimately, that defense is horrific, and I can't see how Nebraska's performance thus far makes them worthy of being a favorite like this.
 
I hereby promise:

1. No more MAC games
2. No more teams that I know to be pretty terrible. (Virginia Tech)

Also, it’s almost impossible to be up to date on injuries. I do as much as possible to check on stuff, but I miss injuries every week. For example, both of Indiana’s top 2 receivers(Camper and Matthews) did not dress, and I had no clue about that. If they had those two this game would likely be over.
 
8-9 week. Too many games, especially some that I added late. It's funny how someone that has been doing this for as long as I have still makes undisciplined mistakes. Oh well, gambling is fun I guess.

I will say that there is no way I would have played Indiana had I known that Camper and Matthews (who had about 80% of their receptions volume) were out. Maybe I'll call it 8-8 and a half.
 
Still early in the season…….you’ll make strong comeback…….looking forward to your weekly write ups ….was on Tulsa last week thanks to you……
 
No worries man. Every man that's ever gambled makes the standard mistakes. One of my faves is telling myself, " too many games". The more the plays, the higher win percentage you need. So then I trim my card down and wallah!... The ones I don't play win, of course. Bottom line, your write ups are great, they provide great insight and opinions. At the end of the day, that's all you can do. Shoutouts brass!
 
ronnie a said:
No worries man. Every man that's ever gambled makes the standard mistakes. One of my faves is telling myself, " too many games". The more the plays, the higher win percentage you need. So then I trim my card down and wallah!... The ones I don't play win, of course. Bottom line, your write ups are great, they provide great insight and opinions. At the end of the day, that's all you can do. Shoutouts brass!
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I was laughing to myself reading this Ronnie. You're very correct, if that's an actual concept. I've had weeks where 3 or 4 games that I wrote up and then deleted won easily. Also, I've sworn off weeknight games for this year since I always found myself digging out of a weeknight hole on Saturdays, thinking it would be a way to limit the number of plays, Naturally I'm on a 7 game weeknight winning streak. I just added some "impulse buys" last week that turned out to be foolish.

Thanks for the kind words Ronnie, you are a prince of a guy and I appreciate your input!
 
number2 said:
Still early in the season…….you’ll make strong comeback…….looking forward to your weekly write ups ….was on Tulsa last week thanks to you……
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Glad to hear Number. Working on week 6 now. Long week on the West coast this week.
 
Your humbleness precedes your insight.

I always look forward to reading your side of these games, especially when you bring things into the convo that I didn't even think about.

:smiledrinkbeer:
 
Hey Brassman what up? Just inquiring on this week's write-ups. Looking forward to the good reads.. like always. No rush though, ha!
 
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