Week 10 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

[Br@ssknux]

13. UCLA -2.5 @Arizona: Arizona has been a juggernaut lately, and I as happy to take them as a home dog last week, but this week I think the matchup is a lot worse for them than what they've played recently. Noah Fifita has been great in relief Jayden deLaura, even better you might say because he hasn' been prone to the mistakes that DeLaura is sometimes. But he's facing the best defense he's seen for sure this week, and the best pass rushing D line in the country. UCLA is also 2nd against the run, so I think Arizona will be forced to throw a lot, and I'm not sure that's in their best interest. Assuming they stick with Chase Garbers at QB, they have balance with the run and pass game, and they've been adept at converting 3rd downs. Arizona is 90th against the pass on defense and 72nd in yards per play overall, so I think UCLA will have an edge on both sides of the ball. Throw in the fact that Kelly is 7-1 in his last 8 as a road favorite and I think UCLA stop Arizona's streak here.

This was strictly a numbers play, and a good example of why you have to visualize the game playing out. UCLA never had a chance to cover this game. AZ is so soild. No sense trying to be cute with them. The numbers said this was the week they came down to earth, but UCLA was not the team to make it happen.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Near misses:

A couple of these I'm kicking myself in retrospect. I liked Ole Miss at home but A&M has that pesky defense, and the public was heavy on Ole Miss so I passed. Dumb. Jimbo is 2-7 ATS in his last 9 on the road. Should have stuck with that one.

Clemson should not have been a home dog against ND. I know what their record is, but that was asking too much of ND without Mitchell Evans against that Clemson defense. More Phil Mafah also not a bad thing.

Thought the 19 was a lot for Ohio State to cover, but Rutgers is horrific as a home dog. Almost cosmically bad.

I thought Georgia Tech was he better team, but UVa is trending well and if GT flipped to the favorite, that was a risk I was not willing to take.

I was interested in fading Coastal with my ODU Monarchs(sorry Dollaz) especially since Mc Call was out, but have you seen what the backup has done? 16 yards per attempt against a good Marshall pass D? If ODU was getting points I might be interested but not when their favored.

Maryland is getting a lot from a dormant offense in Penn State, and my numbers liked Maryland, but I'm not touching MD in this series. It's been ugly for the Terps.

Should have played Louisville at home at a reasonable number. I know VT has looked better, but Louisville has been money at home and VT hasn't proven anything in a non-afterthought role on the road.

Thought about taking a strangely competent Northwestern team against that Iowa offense, but I don't feel like losing to defensive and special teams TDs.

Wanted UCF, but just chickened out. Too many road faves and didn't want any more. Not much more of an explanation than that.

Thought about Vandy, but with my luck this offensive competence by Auburn would last longer than a week. They have done nothing to warrant this kind of favorite role on the road though.

Texas State looks better on paper to me than Ga Southern, but I don't trust them as a favorite in this game.

Still trying to fade BYU but just couldn't lay that much with the Mountaineers

Boise's defense is terrible and Fresno should be able to handle a FG on the road, but I wouldn't want to rely on Fife in case Keene doesn't play.

That's it. Hope everybody does better than what it appears I'm headed for,

 

[Br@ssknux]

6-7 for the week, really frustrating. Some of these results were hard to figure out, but there were zero bad beats. Sometimes I am too subjective and ignore relevant numbers, and sometimes I'll too tied to the numbers and avoid nuance, which was the case this week. (Anybody catch that Arizona State/Utah box score??)

Hate being under .500 in any week, but it happens. On to next week....

 

[Br@ssknux]

Added quick comments on each game to help me debrief.

 

[M.W.]

Clemson should not have been a home dog against ND. I know what their record is, but that was asking too much of ND without Mitchell Evans against that Clemson defense. More Phil Mafah also not a bad thing.

First time since January 1, 1952, that Clemson had 0 penalty yards.

 

[twinkie13]

Near misses:

A couple of these I'm kicking myself in retrospect. I liked Ole Miss at home but A&M has that pesky defense, and the public was heavy on Ole Miss so I passed. Dumb. Jimbo is 2-7 ATS in his last 9 on the road. Should have stuck with that one.

Clemson should not have been a home dog against ND. I know what their record is, but that was asking too much of ND without Mitchell Evans against that Clemson defense. More Phil Mafah also not a bad thing.

Thought the 19 was a lot for Ohio State to cover, but Rutgers is horrific as a home dog. Almost cosmically bad.

I thought Georgia Tech was he better team, but UVa is trending well and if GT flipped to the favorite, that was a risk I was not willing to take.

I was interested in fading Coastal with my ODU Monarchs(sorry Dollaz) especially since Mc Call was out, but have you seen what the backup has done? 16 yards per attempt against a good Marshall pass D? If ODU was getting points I might be interested but not when their favored.

Maryland is getting a lot from a dormant offense in Penn State, and my numbers liked Maryland, but I'm not touching MD in this series. It's been ugly for the Terps.

Should have played Louisville at home at a reasonable number. I know VT has looked better, but Louisville has been money at home and VT hasn't proven anything in a non-afterthought role on the road.

Thought about taking a strangely competent Northwestern team against that Iowa offense, but I don't feel like losing to defensive and special teams TDs.

Wanted UCF, but just chickened out. Too many road faves and didn't want any more. Not much more of an explanation than that.

Thought about Vandy, but with my luck this offensive competence by Auburn would last longer than a week. They have done nothing to warrant this kind of favorite role on the road though.

Texas State looks better on paper to me than Ga Southern, but I don't trust them as a favorite in this game.

Still trying to fade BYU but just couldn't lay that much with the Mountaineers

Boise's defense is terrible and Fresno should be able to handle a FG on the road, but I wouldn't want to rely on Fife in case Keene doesn't play.

That's it. Hope everybody does better than what it appears I'm headed for,

I really like this section of your thread, it’s a great add. Thanks for posting and get em next week!!