Week 5 Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Oct 7 Thu 2021

7:20 PM
301Los Angeles Rams-1
-112		O 54
-105
302Seattle Seahawks+1 Markets+1
-108		U 54
-115
Oct 10 Sun 2021

8:30 AM
451New York Jets+3½
-113		+160O 43
-110
452Atlanta Falcons
-3½
-107		-180U 43
-110
12:00 PM
453Miami Dolphins+10
-108		O 49½
-110
454Tampa Bay Buccaneers-10
-112		U 49½
-110
12:00 PM
455Philadelphia Eagles+4
-110		+170O 45½
-115
456Carolina Panthers-4
-110		-195U 45½
-105
12:00 PM
457New Orleans Saints-1
-110		O 44
-112
458Washington Football Team+1
-110		U 44
-108
12:00 PM
459Tennessee Titans-3½
-115		-190O 47½
-110
460Jacksonville Jaguars+3½
-105		+165U 47½
-110
12:00 PM
461Detroit Lions+8
-110		+290O 49
-110
462Minnesota Vikings-8
-110		-360U 49
-110
12:00 PM
465Green Bay Packers-3½
-105		-175O 49½
-110
466Cincinnati Bengals+3½
-115		+155U 49½
-110
3:25 PM
473New York Giants+7½
-114		+280O 50½
-110
474Dallas Cowboys-7½
-106		-350U 50½
-110
3:25 PM
475San Francisco 49ers+4½
-101		+195O 53
-110
476Arizona Cardinals-4½
-119		-225U 53
-110
7:20 PM
477Buffalo Bills+3
-110		+135O 56½
-110
478Kansas City Chiefs-3
-110		-155U 56½
-110
Oct 11 Mon 2021

7:15 PM
479Indianapolis Colts+7
-110		+265O 48
-105
480Baltimore Ravens-7
-110		-315U 48
-115
 
Seattle a dog at home? That smells. Rams bounce back.

I like Atlanta to cover. The trip overseas should do them some good. Jets caught Tenny shorthanded.

Tampa better as a tease than laying the double digits.

Like Carolina to bounce back, especially if CMac plays.

Saints/WTF seems like a bounce back game for Saints.

Tenny as a road favorite again? Pass on this one.

Vikings teaser play, -8 is too much risk.

Packers on the road against a pesky Bengals squad. Line looks right, pass.

Hate laying more than one score with Dallas in a divisional tilt. Teaser would be my choice.

Think road dogs are going to be a thing in the competitive West. Lean Niners.

Would love to take the Bills but I need to see it against KC first. Over looks more inviting.

Ravens laying 7 a little tough to back with Indy starting to look better. Maybe tease Ravens down.
 
The problem with Buffalo to me is they don’t have the type of offense that holds serve. It’s explosive but it’s not tactical. Meaning they will have drives they don’t score. But the defense is so much better than last year that it might not matter.

I think Zona opened at -3.5 which is wild! 9ers no Jimmy, Trey looked not ready, and possibly Trent Williams will be out. The 9ers did beat the Cardinals with CJ Bethard and a bunch of backups last year in Arizona when Zona needed the game badly. So maybe there’s something there. I thought it would be over 7 for sure though.
 
Inspekdah said:
The problem with Buffalo to me is they don’t have the type of offense that holds serve. It’s explosive but it’s not tactical. Meaning they will have drives they don’t score. But the defense is so much better than last year that it might not matter.

I think Zona opened at -3.5 which is wild! 9ers no Jimmy, Trey looked not ready, and possibly Trent Williams will be out. The 9ers did beat the Cardinals with CJ Bethard and a bunch of backups last year in Arizona when Zona needed the game badly. So maybe there’s something there. I thought it would be over 7 for sure though.
Click to expand...

No clue cause my feeling always been Rams had kylers number and Kyler had niners, zona improving every year tho as is Murray and he already been a handful for niners d. I would expect Trey look way more ready after he takes the 1st team reps and they have a game plan specific for him, I don’t think Jimmy be back, by time he is this will be treys team I think. The run game is gonna be that much tougher to stop with teams having to worry bout him, which also gonna open up deep shots. They knew it was a matter of time till Jimmy waa hurt again, this why Trey here. I think line says how much more potential this offense has with him. Seattle was my fav play yesterday and honestly I got little scared when Jimmy left as I was part fading him with the run game struggling more than usual thanks to all the injuries. Imo even if it takes a few weeks the sooner this happened the better.
 
2daBank said:
No clue cause my feeling always been Rams had kylers number and Kyler had niners, zona improving every year tho as is Murray and he already been a handful for niners d. I would expect Trey look way more ready after he takes the 1st team reps and they have a game plan specific for him, I don’t think Jimmy be back, by time he is this will be treys team I think. The run game is gonna be that much tougher to stop with teams having to worry bout him, which also gonna open up deep shots. They knew it was a matter of time till Jimmy waa hurt again, this why Trey here. I think line says how much more potential this offense has with him. Seattle was my fav play yesterday and honestly I got little scared when Jimmy left as I was part fading him with the run game struggling more than usual thanks to all the injuries. Imo even if it takes a few weeks the sooner this happened the better.
Click to expand...

Jimmy’s injured his calf in the first drive before the pain set in. 9ers should have blown them out. Tough break. Lance is not an upgrade at this point. Not even close.
 
Inspekdah said:
Jimmy’s injured his calf in the first drive before the pain set in. 9ers should have blown them out. Tough break. Lance is not an upgrade at this point. Not even close.
Click to expand...

I don’t feel like you can possibly know that yet. I don’t think Jimmy been playing all that great. Far as blowing Seattle out we just have to agree there no point even discussing cause that was never gonna happen. Maybe when Russ retires.
 
2daBank said:
I don’t feel like you can possibly know that yet. I don’t think Jimmy been playing all that great. Far as blowing Seattle out we just have to agree there no point even discussing cause that was never gonna happen. Maybe when Russ retires.
Click to expand...

Did you watch? It was 200 plus yards to negative 2. 7-0 but felt 27-0. Then the wheels came off
 
2daBank said:
Yea they were dominating yet were up 7-0,, teams typically lose games like that against a top level qb.
Click to expand...

Not having a kicker didn’t help either. Lance is a year from a year away but maybe we can scheme something for him. He’ll benefit from an improved backfield.
 
Inspekdah said:
The problem with Buffalo to me is they don’t have the type of offense that holds serve. It’s explosive but it’s not tactical. Meaning they will have drives they don’t score. But the defense is so much better than last year that it might not matter.
Click to expand...

And the fact that KC's defense just can't stop anybody right now is a huge problem. This thing seems like you almost have to bet the over blind.
 
Joe Public said:
And the fact that KC's defense just can't stop anybody right now is a huge problem. This thing seems like you almost have to bet the over blind.
Click to expand...

What the total tho? Gotta be 56ish? I havnt seen so just guessing. My concern with that would be I’d expect bills to flex their improved run game. Also didn’t last time they faced bills sat back in 2 deep and kc pretty much ran at them all game? Wouldn’t expect bills d which looks really good to give up anything big, fast, or easy.
 
Tonight seems like a lovely game to get down on some over props in both passing games!

I wanna say Ramsey often takes DK which should mean a big game for Lockett who has been kinda down his last few. He tends to light it up in prime time! Thinking ovsr 5.5 receptions at +120, over 71.5 receiving yards -114, and even money to score a td all should be good!

DK off the injury report but dunno if he 100% healthy and the potential of Ramsey taking him out has me leaning under 5.5 receptions at +114, no interest in fading his yards tho as he can bust a long one at any time.

Kupp receptions awful high at 7.5 but it is plus money, he has seen dd targets in every game, and this Seattle secondary can be had! Not sure if better to go over receptions at plus money or pay -114 for over 88.5 yards? He has topped that in 3 of the 4 games.

Woods been grumbling a bit? Does that get him more targets? I would think yes, gotta pay juice on his over 5.5 receptions anx 62,5 yards tho. I’d think it pretty likely they look to appease him tonight against a crappy pass d. DoeS that take away from Kupp tho? Think there a better chance it takes away from Jefferson who has gotten 6 targets each the last 2 weeks.

I don’t see anything for DJax on BOL but I’m assuming when I go to draft kings at casino they will have. I’ve always been partial to djax and he always been a guy who loves the brightest lights! I could see myself taking a flyer on him catching a bomb if I can get a good number! I think the fact he saw very limited snaps on Sunday sets up for him on the short week to catch a bomb! Def gonna take a shot with him at super cheap price in one dfs lineup!


Anything else you guys see? I was thinking Wagner over 9.5 tackles should be money also
 
DeSean will almost certainly get a few deep looks vs this poor secondary. Anytime touchdown +300 @ BetOnline
 
I like the idea of woods but don’t feel like getting much a discount dispite his poor start to season. I did take over 61.5 yards.
 
KJ said:
I get a $25 promo at +100 every day and today it was Russ o1.5 so of course played it
Click to expand...

Oh wow/ that sweat. I had to parlay w coastal 1st qrtr cause wasn’t paying -160 straight. Lol. Nice they let you parlay props with different events tho!
 
They started those promos at $50 max when we went live on 9/9 and of course played every day...after a week it was down to $25 max

All 7 of them hit the first week, think only 2 promos in a month haven't hit and one was TB12 o299.5 yds on Sunday and he had 185 at HT!
 
Zeke said:
KJ what book? I feel like the promos Draft Kings puts up are purely fade material.
Click to expand...
Today's promo is ASU -7.5 +100

Thing is with these odds you go 50% you break even. Not sure if I like it but since it's capped at $25 it becomes one of those wagers you forget about and just do it
 
KJ said:
Today's promo is ASU -7.5 +100

Thing is with these odds you go 50% you break even. Not sure if I like it but since it's capped at $25 it becomes one of those wagers you forget about and just do it
Click to expand...

Fuck yea, I’d take it in a heartbeat, isn’t the line up to like 13!? If anything at least it gives ya something on that game, cause I don’t particularly like it either way, I rather they picked for me and gave me a better number w no juice! Lol
 
2daBank said:
Fuck yea, I’d take it in a heartbeat, isn’t the line up to like 13!? If anything at least it gives ya something on that game, cause I don’t particularly like it either way, I rather they picked for me and gave me a better number w no juice! Lol
Click to expand...
Yeah line is 13, the value at +100 is a no brainer win or lose

Do that every day over several months it adds up
 
What is going on with this Broncos/Steelers line? I saw Pitt -2 at the start of the week, now it's down to Pitt -0.5? With Drew Lock starting for Denver? Line is going against a public team like Pittsburgh? Seems telling to me.
 
Gandolf said:
What is going on with this Broncos/Steelers line? I saw Pitt -2 at the start of the week, now it's down to Pitt -0.5? With Drew Lock starting for Denver? Line is going against a public team like Pittsburgh? Seems telling to me.
Click to expand...
Teddy practiced yesterday
 
Yup, gotta be QB line movement. Think the 0.5 assumes T-Bridges is in.

Just surprised it hasn’t been off the board. I would think it crosses 3 if Lock starts. Maybe I’m overestimating the QB difference, but Lock is awwwwwwwwwful.
 
Tin&Lint said:
Yup, gotta be QB line movement. Think the 0.5 assumes T-Bridges is in.

Just surprised it hasn’t been off the board. I would think it crosses 3 if Lock starts. Maybe I’m overestimating the QB difference, but Lock is awwwwwwwwwful.
Click to expand...
To be fair, and I don't like Lock much at this point, but he took zero first team snaps before last week in practice and the Ravens defense might be the toughest to prepare for. He looks like ass anyway, but there is an actual excuse as to why he looked worse than ass on Sunday.
 
Gandolf said:
What is going on with this Broncos/Steelers line? I saw Pitt -2 at the start of the week, now it's down to Pitt -0.5? With Drew Lock starting for Denver? Line is going against a public team like Pittsburgh? Seems telling to me.
Click to expand...

PFT is saying today that Bridgewater will start.
 
KJ said:
When Steez bench Ben I'll be all in
Click to expand...

For me this would be a bit of a play against Denver—who came out of last week really banged up—and a tiny bit of a Ben play. No doubt he's heard how washed up he is this week. Tomiln was basically asked that flat out to start the week. That Denver secondary took some hits last week and isn't 100%. I think Pittsburgh finds a way to win this game even though they probably aren't the better team. Or at least, they won't be at the end of the season. The Broncos also have the Raiders on deck. Bit of a look-ahead spot for them even though they're coming off a loss.
 
Joe Public said:
For me this would be a bit of a play against Denver—who came out of last week really banged up—and a tiny bit of a Ben play. No doubt he's heard how washed up he is this week. Tomiln was basically asked that flat out to start the week. That Denver secondary took some hits last week and isn't 100%. I think Pittsburgh finds a way to win this game even though they probably aren't the better team. Or at least, they won't be at the end of the season. The Broncos also have the Raiders on deck. Bit of a look-ahead spot for them even though they're coming off a loss.
Click to expand...
Tomlin has been a Ben/AB/Leveon puppet for years. So impressed he's kept up with the bullshit. You get in with the Rooneys, job security isn't a thing. But can see him seething at the opportunity to not having the inmates running the asylum. Not sure we've remotely seen how good a game day coach he can be, those egos being kept in check for so many years...quite an accomplishment in my book.

Not sure how you feel comfy playing this game but it seems like Steez all over in a spot, not the opponent
 
Yeah, I haven't bet it yet. It's sort of on my maybe list. I'm not sure I get there with it, it may be more of a play on the number/price that pushes me one way or the other.

I agree with you about Tomlin though. I think he's wanted to move on from Ben here, but knows it's not up to him. Problem is, he's got no real replacement. Their refusal to really be honest with where they are is hamstringing where they're going.
 
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Not sure if this was mentioned or not, but I just saw it today, the Lions put their pro-bowl center on IR this week.
 
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