Week #4

Yanks27Sox9

Yanks27Sox9

CTG Partner
In the end, week #3 was sure a lot better then week #2. Went 8-4 in my original/first set of plays, and it coulda/shoulda been a bit better than that. I don't blame the kids...kickers, refs, and coaches are a completely different story though. ;) Hit some un-posted live plays too, but those don't count. Only real problem was that my 4 friday night, last minute additions all shit the got damned bed. But after last week i'll take anything in the black, so all good. Anyhow, moving on to week #4.

Unfortunately, I'll be missing the openers from here to Thanksgiving. Sundays are for travel ball now w/ the kids, so will have to catch up on things at night. Will still be prepared though, and will throw up what I can when I can. As always, I looked ahead to the following week already, so will copy/paste two posts from last week's thread below. Just some initial thoughts, and raw numbers using data prior to this week's games, so have at it. Would appreciate any feedback and/or discussion regarding any of the 21 games I've looked ahead too already, otherwise I'm just talkin to myself. Gimme your thoughts, like we did (much more of) when this forum started.

:cheers3:
 
alright, now it's time for my look ahead to Week #4. here are the first half of games i'm looking at...

Arkansas @ Texas A&M (in Arlington)
Messy on deck for A&M, and Bama on deck for Hogs. Arkansas has covered L4, but usually a big dog, except for their 20-10 win LY. Need to see how they look in this week's games, but A&M should be a small home fav (1.5 - 2.5 pts).

Florida @ Tennessee
Vols have a bye on deck, and Gators have Eastern Wash. Florida has been solid in road openers, and owns this series. Florida should be a road dog, and I'll be on them. How much of a dog is TBD, but probably (hopefully) 6 to 7 pts.

Wisconsin @ Ohio St
Illinois on deck for Wisky, and Rutgers on deck for tOSU. Buckeyes have won 8 straight in the series, and I'll be on them here. Would love to see the line at 17 or less, but will take it at 21 or less.

Maryland @ Michigan
Homecoming for BAR and Hunt. Spartans on deck for Maryland, and Iowa on deck for Michigan. Wolverines have won/covered the L6 with the Terps, so I'll be on them here as well. Would love to see the line at 14 or less, but will take it at 17 or less.

Minnesota @ Michigan St
Purdue is on deck for Minny, and Maryland is on deck for MSU. Depending upon how this week goes, Minny should be a nice dog, and I definitely lean Minny here. A MSU win can get me +7 or better. But a MSU loss to UW, and it'll be closer to +4 pts I think.

Indiana @ Cincinnati
Nebby on deck for Indiana, and Tulsa on deck for Cincy. It's early, and how Indiana does this week is important, but kinda lean their way in this one, especially if they're catching 3 TDs (which is about where the line would be today).

Iowa @ Rutgers
Michigan on deck for Iowa, and Ohio St on deck for Rutgers. Not sure yet, but Rutgers will be a home dog. Hopefully it's an enticing line.

Clemson @ Wake Forest
NCST is on deck for Clemson, and FSU is on deck for WF. Clemson has won 13 straight in the series, but Wake has covered 5 of L8. Not sure how I lean just yet, but WF should be catching at least 7.5 at home.

Boston College @ Florida St
Louisville is on deck for BC, and Wake is on deck for FSU. FSU has won L5 at home, but all have been close games. FSU will be favored by double digits though, yet it's the Noles or nothing for me here. Will wait and see if there's any value with the line.

Virginia @ Syracuse
Duke is on deck for Virginia, and FCS on deck for Cuse. Lean Orange at -10 or less.

Notre Dame @ North Carolina
ND has a bye on deck, and UNC has VaTech on deck. Domers own this series, and have covered 3 straight. This one depends upon many things, including health/injuries. Believe it or not though, my first gut instinct is to lean towards UNC, especially as a home dog of +4 or better if we see that.

:tiphat:
 
here are the second half of games i'm looking at in Week #4...

Kansas St @ Oklahoma
Texas Tech is on deck for K St, and TCU is on deck for Oklahoma. 4 of L5 decided by a TD or less, so I'm definitely leaning on K St here. Obviously things depend on how this week goes, but as of today, K St should be catching about 11 points by my numbers. Would absolutely like to see +10 or better.

Baylor at Iowa St
Okie Lite is on deck for Baylor, and Kansas is on deck for Iowa St. Typically close games in this series. Bears aren't a good road team, and they're too one dimensional. Iowa St should be a small home dog, around a FG give or take, but not sure which way I'd lean just yet.

Texas at Texas Tech
WVU is on deck for Texas, and K St is on deck for TT. Horns absolutely own this series. Need to see how they are without Ewers moving forward, but if the line is reasonable, I will probably be backing the Horns here (especially if -6 or better).

TCU @ SMU
Oklahoma is on deck for TCU, and UCF is on deck for SMU. Dykes old team has won the L2 in the series. TCU is off a bye, but need to see how SMU does at Maryland this week. At first glance, I want to lean SMU but really lean towards the over (if reasonable). 79 and 76 were L2 totals. What's interesting is that (as of today) I can see this line as a FG either way. The different #s I use are oppo of each other, lol. Go figure.

West Virginia @ Virginia Tech
Years ago this would've been a great match up. Texas is on deck for WVU, and UNC is on deck for VT. Not a relevant series any more, and both teams are down. Still interested to see where this opens, even if I won't be playing the game.

Utah at Arizona St
Oregon St is on deck for Utah, and USC is on deck for ASU. ASU used to own this series, but Utes have covered L2. Home team has lost L6 SU and ATS. You know I'm leaning Utah here. Will take them at -7 or better. Need a strong showing from ASU this week, or they'll make us pay a premium (8-9 pts) to back the Utes in this one.

USC @ Oregon St
ASU is on deck for USC, and Utah is on deck for Oregon St. USC owns the series historically, but the home team is 11-6 ATS. (See a few posts up for many more thoughts on USC and their flaws, especially run defense.) Depending upon this week, the Beavs should be a home dog between 3 to 6 points. There will be spots to fade the Trojans, where their flaws will be exposed. Undecided at the moment if this will be one of them. Was not very impressed by the Beavs at Fresno until the very end (their last two drives).

Oregon @ Washington St
Stanford is on deck for Oregon, and Cal is on deck for Wazzou. Wash St is 6-1-1 ATS L8, and home team is 3 of L4. It's also a BYU/Stanford sandwich spot for the Ducks. Wazzou should be catching double digits at home (11 to 13 as of today), but got damned that was an ugly game against Wisky. Gonna keep looking at this one, but hopefully there'll be value in the line. This week's result will determine that.

Stanford @ Washington
Oregon is on deck for Stanford, and UCLA is on deck for Washington...who has a big game vs Sparty this week. Stanford will be off a bye, they're 4-1 ATS L5, but the home team is also 8 of L11. Depending how this week goes, UW should be around a 10 pt fav (as of today's #s) which would make me uncomfortable. My heart will say to back Penix and UW. My mind knows that USC was fortunate to cover vs Stanford, and these games always seem to be within/under 10 points, so that's the way I'd have to lean if the line is that high. We shall see.

James Madison @ Appy St
Included for shits & giggles, as this series used to mean something back in the day. Old FCS foes. Who cares who's on deck for either team. This should be cool to watch. Will be interested to see how heavily the Mountaineers are favored by.

:tiphat:
 
taking week #3 results into consideration:

- A&M will be a larger fav than that. Expected Miami to be a FG game, and the lackluster Hogs were looking ahead.
- Gators were looking ahead too. Hopefully there will be some great value as a result of that tomorrow.
- love Ohio St, Michigan, and Minnesota this coming week.
- add Wake and Rutgers to the teams that were looking ahead too.
- Kansas St really got caught looking ahead, and the Sooners rolled. Hoping for great value as a result tomorrow.
- after today, and freakin ASU laying an egg, will have to pay a huge premium to back Utah unfortunately.
- will come back to all my other Pac-12 stuff later in the week.

happy hunting tomorrow afternoon. i know CB will find some great ones. (we didn't get the best of that sooner line, but we were right anyways). :shake:

and number2...regarding that JMU/Appy total...I've got no idea yet where it'll be set, but this game's already got triple OT written all over it. ;) i know back in the day, they typically played low scoring games. all i know right now is every freakin game appy st is involved in turns out fun this year.
 
I love your post and thoughts. I have only one issue with what I see so far.

Maryland @ Michigan
Homecoming for BAR and Hunt. Spartans on deck for Maryland, and Iowa on deck for Michigan. Wolverines have won/covered the L6 with the Terps, so I'll be on them here as well. Would love to see the line at 14 or less, but will take it at 17 or less.

The Terp have a very poor ATS record in conference (9-21-2) from 2018 and beyond. Here is what I will add Michigan covered 8-2 in conference last year and coming in after 3 terrible teams this line will be a higher than you project. Last season Michigan -16 @ Maryland. Mich nailed them 59-18.

Dont be surprised if this line is -21 or more.

Again I appreciate you taking the time to put some notes down. I just wanted to give you heads up on this one.

Mich probably covers but I just dont like that they are playing such a weak schedule and laying big points accordingly. I think the books could possibly give out a wacky high line in this one. -21 to -28 is what could possibly happen.
 
Any better time than now for ASU to can Herm? Gotta think with all the BS he's put them through the buyout would be negotiable.

And if ISU are catching points at home to Baylor...I'll proudly bet on em and sound like a homer.
 
spottie2935 said:
I love your post and thoughts. I have only one issue with what I see so far.

Maryland @ Michigan
Homecoming for BAR and Hunt. Spartans on deck for Maryland, and Iowa on deck for Michigan. Wolverines have won/covered the L6 with the Terps, so I'll be on them here as well. Would love to see the line at 14 or less, but will take it at 17 or less.

The Terp have a very poor ATS record in conference (9-21-2) from 2018 and beyond. Here is what I will add Michigan covered 8-2 in conference last year and coming in after 3 terrible teams this line will be a higher than you project. Last season Michigan -16 @ Maryland. Mich nailed them 59-18.

Dont be surprised if this line is -21 or more.

Again I appreciate you taking the time to put some notes down. I just wanted to give you heads up on this one.

Mich probably covers but I just dont like that they are playing such a weak schedule and laying big points accordingly. I think the books could possibly give out a wacky high line in this one. -21 to -28 is what could possibly happen.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I'd say 18-20 will be opener.
 
I will be on UNC…that is all.

Actually I hope they come out as a dog but thinking it could be a PK or even up to Heels -2.5 but either way I will be on em as I think this is one we will just outscore them in a crazy game where the Irish all of a sudden find their offense against our D.
 
Also liked the way the Wake game played out and not just because I had the over. I was planning to take wake already in week 4, so the game vs liberty may get me a couple points of value. I like wake anything above 7 pretty much in what should be a fun one. May just take the over though if it is reasonable.
 
Had Cincy in week 3 and feel lucky to cover with the early 18 vs late 22.5, but I like Indiana in week 4 if they put a 21.5 out there, but I think it may be closer to 17.
 
carolinablue said:
Getting too old to stay up to watch late games reality. Man I remember staying up to watch Hawaii games on my laptop back in the day, now I’m lucky to stay up to catch the start of a second quarter out west haha
Click to expand...
Yanks is in LA I believe...when he has time to chime in he'll pick up the pieces.
 
They also have JMU 8.5, Wake 7 and Florida 6.5. Not in love with any of those as they are all reasonable in my view so hoping for more dog value this afternoon.
 
Offered 25% free play with 6x rollover which these days isn’t horrible. Used them last year for some CBB and they gave me no problems with paying out once you got through all the verification stuff on the back end.
 
will come back to everything tonight. Home from winning our baseball game, and here are the lines.

i'm fuckin geeked right now. Judge is having the best non PED season ever. 59 in 146 games, and legit triple crown threat.
 
Yanks27Sox9 said:
will come back to everything tonight. Home from winning our baseball game, and here are the lines.

i'm fuckin geeked right now. Judge is having the best non PED season ever. 59 in 146 games, and legit triple crown threat.
Click to expand...
question is do you give him the 10 years and $500 million he'll want at age 31? Soto wants it too but someone needs to tell him he can't get it hitting .240. Someone will give it to Judge. But amazing year. Too bad all the steroid records aren't officially off the books.
 
LV openers:

Michigan -15.5
Ohio St -18
Syracuse +3.5 lol
(i texted BAR about that silliness.)
Florida +3.5
(i wanted a TD, but 10, wow. really hope i didn't miss any news)
 
lvmike32 said:
question is do you give him the 10 years and $500 million he'll want at age 31? Soto wants it too but someone needs to tell him he can't get it hitting .240. Someone will give it to Judge. But amazing year. Too bad all the steroid records aren't officially off the books.
Click to expand...

nope. can't pay anyone that much in their later years. plus he hasn't had a full healthy year since 2017. will hate to see him go.
 
just sitting watching the lines. nothing more for the moment, as im hoping lines will move...or they're not worth playing at current numbers.

gotta pay a huge premium to back FSU (-16) or Utah (-15) right now. love both teams, but no thanks. way overpriced.
 
ok, i'm outta her for a bit. haven't even eaten today, lol. will be back later with more.

mentioned this in the discussion thread regarding Pac-12...

s--k said:
Really appealing PAC 12 schedule, for the most part.

Oregon - Washington State
Arizona - Cal
USC - Oregon State
Stanford - Washington
Click to expand...
for dogs too. let the lines climb to key numbers.


I don't like ASU, but over 2 TDs is too much to back Utah, so no play there. i don't like Colorado either, but as a Bruin fan, i don't want to lay that many points on the road, so a no play there either. otherwise, with all the Pac-12 games, i'm leaning towards the dogs. as i said above, let those lines climb to key/better numbers. might not be enough value even if the two reach +7, but still leaning (at various degrees) towards ALL the dogs in conference this week.
 
two more. mainly favs for now. like a ton of dogs this week, but hoping for the lines to climb. no need to play them early without it. already cost myself a half point by taking the gators so early.

WF might see a +7.5 soon. wanted Minny around +3, like the LV opener, not -1 @ MSU.

Miami (-26) for 1
Texas (-4) for 1

canes at BaS and horns at BM
 
lvmike32 said:
question is do you give him the 10 years and $500 million he'll want at age 31? Soto wants it too but someone needs to tell him he can't get it hitting .240. Someone will give it to Judge. But amazing year. Too bad all the steroid records aren't officially off the books.
Click to expand...


Soto is only 23. He is worth it.
 
because Soto is 23, and a generational type player, he is worth it (the years). money is debatable, and I don't understand how he gets in funks at times...but he won a ring as basically a teenager. and i look at how he rises to the occasion against the elite pitchers. as much as i love judge, i can't say the same thing about him (yet, at least.) bases is crazy though with everything guaranteed (years/money). such a huge risk to pay players after their prime, for past results.

to each their own about ohtani. he's an incredible player, and unique thanks to the circumstances (the power he had as a FA entering the league), but he's not the mvp. trout is still a much better hitter. and take ohtani away from the halos, and guess what...they're still a way, way below .500 team. how TF is that valuable?

take Judge away from the yanks, and they'd be lucky to sniff a wild card game. after their incredible start to the season, they have been one of the worst teams in the game...at Pittsburgh levels for a long ass stretch (no offense) ;) ...yet Judge has singlehandedly kept them alive.

assuming Judge is doing this cleanly, because testing has caught even Tatis Jr, this is the single greatest non PED season ever. 59 HRs in 146. 1 more HR and he ties The Babe at 60 in 152. 2 more HRs and he ties Maris at 61 in 162. Exactly 61 years after the magical 1961 season! He's doing this while playing amazing CF, stealing bases, and leading in all the major offensive categories. look at OPS+ or wRC+ or anything, and it's not remotely close. just a point below in AL batting average too...while 20 HRs over the next best in MLB.

back in the day, i was totally enveloped by the cheaters...Mac, Sosa, Bonds, etc...and they still had to hit the ball. considering PEDs, Bonds has still had the best seasons in my 50+ years. but take the PEDs away, and there's nothing that compares to the season Judge is having right now. that's got me seriously pumped up to see how it all unfolds, as an old school fan of the game.
doesn't seem to be too much fanfare following this though, and I think it's cuz we were all duped during the steroid era. hard to trust anything is real/legit any more.
 
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