Week 4 Write ups and hopefully feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Went 6-7-1 last week. I'd recap it here, but I doubt anyone cares to hear the sob story on this bad break or that one. Moving on to this week, where I need to improve on the season long total of 16-24-2.


1. Iowa -14 @ Rutgers: Although Iowa is a grind it out type of team, they have shown the ability to blow out the dregs of college football (See Iowa State in week 2). Rutgers, despite their feel good win of last week in a game they never should have covered, is certainly among the dregs. They also have some explosiveness on offense with the Daniels/Wadley combo in the running game. Rutgers has some ability to run it, but that plays into Iowa's strength, as I think their struggles against the run this year are a mirage, and I think they'll show it this week. Rutgers is absolutely dreadful in the passing game, and I wouldn't be surprised if Chris Laviano is yanked after running out of a small amount of leash. Iowa also is 11/12 in the red zone in scoring TDs, while Rutgers is only 3 for 8, good for 123rd in the country in that metric. If you give up TD's and kick FGs, even if you trade scores, it's a losing proposition at 14. Rutgers was lucky to get out of their game with a win and they were out-statted, while Iowa is due for a bounce back performance after the loss last week.
 
2. @South Florida +5 v Florida State: The legendary beatdown administered to FSU by Louisville last week has helped to bring the Noles to some terrible statistical rankings, and frankly, if you throw out the second half of the Ole MIss opener, FSU has spent the entire season getting torched on defense, to the tune of a 110th ranking in total yards per play. they are still banged up on defese and Derwin James, their most important defensive leader, remains out. Willie Taggart has quietly assembled a very good team in Tampa, who offensively have a very balanced attack with RB Mack and a pretty solid pass offense that's currently ranked 26th in the country in passing efficiency and 28th in ypa. Defensively, they have continued their solid play of the past couple years, and don't look now, but FSU has had a hard time getting their run game going. an obscene amount of public bettors seem convinced that FSU right s the ship this week, but I think USF has a lot to prove on their home field in this one.
 
3. Central Michigan -3.5 @ Virginia: Virginia has been a terrific home dog in recent years, but with a new coach, that data pretty much goes out the window. So far this year, CMU has outgained opponents all 3 of it's opponents, and has been doing so by an average of more than 200 yards per game. This includes an 80 yard edge vs OKlahoma State and a significant edge against a pretty good UNLV team. On the flip side, this is not the case for the Cavs, as they have been outgained by a ton, and only gained 387 yards against a terrible Oregon defense. CMU is throwing it well, ranking 14th in passing efficiency and ranks 14th oveall in ypp. Defensively, their 20th against the run and 12th against the pass, bad news for a UVA offense who can't throw. Defensively, UVA is 119th against the pass. This is bad news as they get ready to attempt to match up with QB Cooper Rush and the 15th ranked CHip passing game.
 
4. Syracuse +3 @ UCONN: This is mostly a fade against UCONN, who is and has been a terrible home favorite over the years, going 2-12-1 in that role since 2011. Syracuse is terrible on defense, but UCONN doesn't really have the offense to exploit it, as they can't run the ball at all and throw mostly dinks and dunks in the passing game. Syracuse is coming off a couple of blowout losses, but they actually out yarded USF by 90+ yards and UCONN is coming off a game in which they won but were outgained by Virginia. Typically that's a bad combination for the next week, especially in the case of UCONN who can't cover as a home favorite to save their lives.
 
5. Florida +5.5 @ Tennessee: You can make a case that maybe Tennessee is just lying in the weeds for the Gators, since they've stunk it up against their two weak sister opponents and did very well against VT despite getting outgained. This Florida defense is about as tough a defensive group as the Vols will see however, and their ineptitude when they have the ball has been well documented. I actually think Austin Appleby will be a pretty serviceable Qb at least for awhile. This should be a very low scoring game, so the points will be valuable. Offensively Florida hasn't been bad, especially on 3rd down where they rank 3rd in the country. Pretty much every defensive metric they account for, Florida excels at. This is a must take in my opinion.
 
Br@ssknux said:
5. Florida +5.5 @ Tennessee: You can make a case that maybe Tennessee is just lying in the weeds for the Gators, since they've stunk it up against their two weak sister opponents and did very well against VT despite getting outgained. This Florida defense is about as tough a defensive group as the Vols will see however, and their ineptitude when they have the ball has been well documented. I actually think Austin Appleby will be a pretty serviceable Qb at least for awhile. This should be a very low scoring game, so the points will be valuable. Offensively Florida hasn't been bad, especially on 3rd down where they rank 3rd in the country. Pretty much every defensive metric they account for, Florida excels at. This is a must take in my opinion.
Click to expand...

Del Rio out for Florida, which I see you address, but that's a tough environment.
 
BOL today Brass, I really do like Fla today and also have some on the under in that game. I haven't really taken a look at UVA yet, but you make some very interesting points on their glaring offensive inefficiency.
 
Thanks Fondy and Timmy....I don't know about you guys but the line movement has really puzzled me this week. I have liked some sides all week only to get scared off by the line movement.
 
Thanks Fondy and Timmy....I don't know about you guys but the line movement has really puzzled me this week. I have liked some sides all week only to get scared off by the line movement.
 
I would normally like Cmich in this game given the numbers. The concern is this is an ooc road game with arguably their most important game of the year on deck.
 
CC, I agree, plus UVA has always been good home dog. Just think CMU is that much better than UVa at this juncture and I like the idea of being opposite of Benkert or whoever they suit up back there.
 
6. San Jose St +7 @ Iowa State: Statistically, these two teams pretty much look like the same team on paper, with a slight edge to San Jose State on the offensive side of the ball. Both teams have played FCS teams with good reps and a couple of FBS teams that they were overmatched against. Unfortunately for Iowa State, things didn't go well for the last team who hired a seemlingly competent coach from Toledo. Even if Matt Campbell DOES turn out to be a good hire, that first year tends to be pretty painful. At this point, I am skeptical that Iowa State can comfortably beat any reasonably competent team by more than a TD, and SJSU is at least that. My guess is that the Cyclone faithful would be thrilled with any kind of win, so I'll take the TD here with the opinion that the Spartans could very easily walk out of Ames with a win.
 
7. West Virginia -7 v BYU: BYU has played a brutal schedule thus far, with games against Arizona, Utah and UCLA. in those games, the Cougs have covered all three but it's been a meat grinder for QB Taysom Hill. Coming into the season, I was really excited to see Hill was back because he has been one of my favorite players to watch over the years...kind of a poor man's Vince Young with his ability to escape trouble and run over and around people. However, he just isn't the same player after all the injuries, and teams have figured out that he he's just an average QB if he has to throw to beat you. After 3 weeks in which he has been beaten up, Hill and BYU now have to travel across the country to play West Virginia(who was off last week) in Landover, and I think this might be the week that the Cougs take it on the chin a bit. WV has a physical defense that will continue the abuse on Hill, and they are fast enough on offense to give the Cougs defense a lot of trouble. I just don't like the situation for BYU here.
 
8. @Michigan -17.5 v Penn State: The funny thing about Michigan is that they really haven't hit their stride, and they're still winning games by large margins. Two weeks ago, UCF coach Scott Frost was puffing his chest out about how great his team competed physically against the Wolverines, but went home a 51-14 loser. Last week is another great example. When I played Michigan, I said that Colorado could play a fantastic game and still not cover the 20 point spread. It turned out that Colorado played the game of their lives while Liufau was in there but they still ended up being a late missed chip shot FG from not covering. That's the essence of Michigan this year: Opponents feel that they played a great game, yet still get trounced on the scoreboard. What's the score going to be when the opponent DOESN'T have a great effort? We might find that out this week, because the Wolverines are due to put together a great performance, and I don't think Penn State matches up well with them. PSU still can't run the ball, and McSorley is likely to be running for his life. Defensively, Penn State's front 7 have been getting pushed around this year...not a good sign with a trip to the Big House looming. This looks like a 44-13 type game to me.
 
9. @Western Kentucky -8 v Vanderbilt: Bad matchup for Vandy here. They can't throw the ball worth a shit and Western Kentucky has done a good job of stopping the run the past couple years including ranking 20th against the run this year. Vandy's calling card is usually defense, but they got shredded by GT last week and gave up 500+ to a MTSU attack that is inferior to this one 2 weeks ago...a game that they were brutally fortunate to win. Now they face a Western Kentucky offense that has done nothing but prove that they can move the ball and score on anyone. I don't think Vandy has any chance to keep up in this one, and teams like WKU are always eager to show that they can put the wood to an "SEC team".
 
10. La La +5.5 @ Tulane: I have a hard time laying points with teams that can't score, and although Tulane can run it a little bit, they are ranked dead last in passing efficiency. La La had a rough start to their season against Boise but bounced back with a nice performance against South Alabama last week, and despite their early struggles, they've stopped the run so far, ranking 17th in yards per carry against. We should also remember that this was a pretty well regarded squad coming into the year, so I think they've got a good chance to stay within a score against a Tulane squad that will have a hard time getting the ball into the end zone.
 
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11. La Tech +4.5 @ MTSU: These teams are very evenly matched in my opinion, especially on paper, but LT has played a tougher schedule, having already traveled to Texas Tech and Arkansas. Like a lot of teams they found themselves completely unable to get off the field against Patrick Mahomes, but they lit up the scoreboard themselves, and have a complete statistical standstill against Arkansas under their belts. Skip Holtz is 7-2 in his last 9 as a road dog here at LT, and 4.5 is enough for me in a game I think the Bulldogs have a better than 50% chance of winning IMO.
 
12. Kentucky -2.5 v South Carolina: South Carolina is coming off a win they lucked into as ECU coughed up the ball ad nauseum throughout that game and lost despite a 200 yard edge. Kentucky believe it or not ranks 10th in yards per play on offense and 12th in passer rating, so they have the ability to move the ball on SC as well. The defensive side of the ball is another story for the Wildcats, but if there's ever a team to right the ship against defensively, it's the Gamecocks, who rank 113th in ypp, 116th in rushing and 112th in passer rating. I think Kentucky will be able to move it on the Cocks on their home field..don't forget Kentucky beat these guys in Columbia last year, so just grabbing a W at home shouldn't be a big issue for them this year.
 
13. @Marshall +31(-120) v Louisville: Has there ever been a game featuring two teams further on opposite ends of the spectrum as to how they played last week? Louisville is coming off perhaps the most impressive performance we've seen by any team in recent memory and Marshall gave up 65 points to Akron. I'd venture a guess that if there was a line for this game prior to last week's action, it would probably fall somewhere in the 14-17 range. Marshall, despite what happened to them last week, does have a good offense and solid passing attack, as they average almost 7 yards per play and 9.6 yards per pass attempt. Louisville has the mother of all sandwich spots with the greatest performance in their program's history last week and a trip to the #2 team in the country next week. Marshall is 19-2 straight up at home in their last 21. I'm not saying they can beat Louisville here, but I think they are good enough to stay within 31 in a game Louisville couldn't possibly give their best effort in.
 
14. Arkansas +6.5 v Texas A&M: I like A&M's team but I don't like Travis Knight's ability to exploit the Hogs defense, which has been pretty solid over the past couple years. Bielema has been a champ as a dog since he's gained momentum with the program and these two teams have proven that they are at a virtual standstill with each other in recent years. With the Hogs I get the better QB and 6.5 points on a neutral site in what appears to be a tossup game. It's a no brainer to take these points IMO.
 
15. @Arizona State -4 v Cal: Cal is coming off a nice win over Texas, but I think their fortunes will change this week. Their run defense is absolutely atrocious(worst in FBS at 128th), and ASU has a good enough running game to keep that defense on the field all night. cal has no shot to run on the Sun Devils(15th in rush defense) so it will all be on Davis Webb's shoulders, and despite already playing Texas Tech, ASU doesn't have bad pass defense numbers. By the way, ASU beat the red raiders by 14 in that tilt, and this one looks a lot like that one in my opinion. ASU is 12th in the country on 3rd down against Cal's 114th ranked 3rd down defense, and we already know about Cal's inability to stop the run. It's gonna be a long night for the Golden Bear defense.
 
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