Week 4 Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Sep 28 Thu 2023

07:15 PM
101Detroit Lions-1½
-112		O 45
-110
102Green Bay Packers+1 Markets+1½
-108		U 45
-110
Oct 1 Sun 2023

08:30 AM
251Atlanta Falcons+3
-110		O 43½
-110
252Jacksonville Jaguars

+1 Markets		-3
-110		U 43½
-110
12:00 PM
253Miami Dolphins+2½
-110		O 53½
-110
254Buffalo Bills+1 Markets-2½
-110		U 53½
-110
12:00 PM
255Minnesota Vikings-3
-105		O 45
-110
256Carolina Panthers+1 Markets+3
-115		U 45
-110
12:00 PM
257Denver Broncos-3½
-110		O 46½
-105
258Chicago Bears+1 Markets+3½
-110		U 46½
-115
12:00 PM
259Baltimore Ravens+2½
-115		O 41½
-115
260Cleveland Browns+1 Markets-2½
-105		U 41½
-105
03:25 PM
273New England Patriots+7
-114		O 41½
-105
274Dallas Cowboys+1 Markets-7
-106		U 41½
-115
03:25 PM
275Arizona Cardinals+14
-109		O 42
-110
276San Francisco 49ers+1 Markets-14
-111		U 42
-110
07:20 PM
277Kansas City Chiefs-9½
-110		O 42½
-110
278New York Jets+1 Markets+9½
-110		U 42½
-110
Oct 2 Mon 2023

07:15 PM
279Seattle Seahawks-1½
-111		O 45
-110
280New York Giants+1½
-109		U 45
-110
 
NFL Network just said Jimmy G is getting evaluated for a concussion so buyer beware there
 
Denver should not be favored on the road vs anybody. Weird spot after getting embarrassed but still. Bears or nothing.
 
pats boys might be most interesting cap - boys just smashed the jets oline and could see the same with new pats oline; so what is the avenue for pats to move the ball here ? .....pats is intriguing because i think their d will hold up real well; cowboys couldn't run on jets even with their starting oline - i think their new offensive system looks off.

i'll prbly be riding miami - big difference between last years numbers but miami has an improved d over last year; and offense looks like mcdaniels has implemented some new stuff......they seem to be able to run this year; can the bills ? .......is this the bills defense to end the year or beginning of 2022, because if its bills of end of year dolphins all day

i'm not sold on browns defense being best of all time .......they've played nobody with a pulse on offense. Ravens all day for me at 3

vikings feels like easiest play on the board, not sure if thats good or bad

steelers kind of appealling; just seems like they win these games vs mid teams
 
Inspekdah said:
Doubt 9ers let their guard down now vs. Arizona with 10 days to prepare.
Click to expand...
i remember when shanahan kind of struggled in the favorite role; his grind it out offenses I still don't think are great for large spreads. i like them here tho. not sure how arizona scores.
 
EL CAPO said:
i remember when shanahan kind of struggled in the favorite role; his grind it out offenses I still don't think are great for large spreads. i like them here tho. not sure how arizona scores.
Click to expand...

Yeah it’s a lot of points. But I almost blindly take them every week when they have competent QB play. Not sure exactly but I have to believe Jimmy & Brock are over 70% ATS.
 
Just did this before things change..........2 Team/6 point Teaser...biggish for me

Philly -2
Dallas -1
 
Are there two more overrated tackles than David Bakhtiari and Laremy Tunsil? These guys must get their paychecks delivered right to the tub.
 
Bills thoughts-

HUge game here as a Miami win would give them a stranglehold on the division quite early. Offense looking unstoppable as achane emerges as another option. Waddle back so i really don't think the loss of backup wrs means anything. Buffalo D has been overperforming and this is a true test for them. Tua won't be getting sacked 3x as the whole offense is designed around getting the ball off quick. Bills D has pretty much eliminated the run game this season but Mostert is the kind of back that could present problems for them. Bernard has been playing out of his mind alongside Milano they'll have to play the same way to get stops today. Poyer out is a concern though I will say he was visibly slow out there- I pointed it out at the Raiders game. Hamlin maybe gets dressed? Elam might get more play so if I were to play one dfs wr here it would be Waddle.

Offensively Allen is going to have to take what Miami gives him- he'll be looking at that cover 2 shell all game. Nothing to make me think they stop running 12 personnel- I'd expect a bunch of 4-6 yd passes to start. Gabe vs Eli Apple might be a mismatch to exploit. Bills have definitely stepped up in the run game as Cook has been playing well. Inside the 5 it's going to Latavious now but I think it's only a matter of time before Cook breaks a long td. To me it comes down to whether or not Allen can minimize mistakes and take what the d gives him.

I could see a game where it gets sloppy and both teams use the run game more than usual, but the fact remains both teams are capable of hanging up 28+. Over or nothing here even though I think the Bills defense is much improved there are holes to exploit in the secondary and this is far and away the biggest test to date for them.
I think the Bills win and cover but it'll be a closely played game.

Bills tt o27.5 is a play but would love it at 27
 
DaRaiders said:
there are still a couple of teams at 0-3 in the Broncos and Vikings that came into the season with decent win totals of 8.5.

Since 2015, teams that are 0-3 and came into the season with a win total of more than 8 are 10-0-1 ATS since 2015 (9-2 overall)!
Click to expand...
1-0-1
 
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