Week 3 Write Ups and Hopefully feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
3-5 last week after a couple of really poorly conceived bets, most notably laying points with a Texas team that had no interest whatsoever in competing against one of the doormats from the conference they're apparently never going to be able to compete in. Live and learn, I say, and don't be an idiot. I told myself that a few times Saturday night, and although I intend to listen to myself, I can't make any promises. the feeble 3-5 effort brings the overall record to 11-8-1.

Ohio +20 LOSS
UCF -7 LOSS
Cincinnati -3 (-118) WIN
Michigan State +7(-113) WIN
Nebraska +23 WIN
Colorado -2 HOLY SHIT WAS THAT A HELL OF A LOSS. 60 TOTAL YARDS AGAINST THAT DEFENSE???
Kansas State +2 WIN
Purdue +7.5 LOSS
Alabama -14 (-116) LOSS
Arkansas State +17 LOSS
Iowa -22.5 WIN
Memphis +3.5 WIN
Penn State -5 WIN
Utah State +9 WIN
Virginia +8 LOSS
Stanford -12.5 WIN
BYU +3.5 WIN

10-7


I usually don't like to bet on the Thursday night games, but......

1. Ohio +20 @ Louisiana Lafayette(Thursday): Yes, I'm putting my hard earned money on a team that has just lost in back to back weeks, first to Syracuse by 20 and then at the buzzer to FCS Duquesne, who prior to this I thought only had a basketball team. I realize that LaLa was a team that we all liked last year, and that they had everyone coming back from a team that handled Iowa State and lost only once, on the road, by the field goal to Coastal Carolina. The problem is that they haven't been anywhere close to the team they were last year...so far. Why? Who knows? Sometimes the chemistry just isn't the same, a key injury here and there and a team starts to drift. But so far this year, it just hasn't been there for them. In week 1 at Texas, they lost, which is understandable at first, but they gave up 10/15 on 3rd down and 1/ on 4th down, rendering themselves completely unable to accomplish anything on defense to get off the field. It culminated in a rather easy 20 point win for Texas, who then immediately went on the road and were completely non-competitive at Arkansas from jump street. They were run out of Fayetteville, failing to even pretend to compete against the perennial last place squad in the SEC West. LaLa rebounded by Getting outgained 511-394 on their home field against Nicholls State. Nicholls State converted 9/16 on third down and basically did whatever they wanted in the passing game. The Cajuns squeaked out a 27-24 win, but the numbers don't really indicate much of a difference between these 2 squads. Since Ohio actually lost to an FCS team and LaLa merely escaped with a 3 point win, LaLa is laying 20. Listen, I'm not wild about betting on what we've seen from the post-Solich Bobcats so far, but this looks to me to be major value. LaLa has done nothing to deserve being a 20 point favorite in this spot. If they rise up and do a 180 here I'll tip my cap, but it doesn't usually work that way, and Ohio is likely to give whatever their best effort is this week.
 
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2. UCF -7 @Louisville: (Friday) Louisville had a nice game last week as they got to screw around with an overmatched Eastern Kentucky squad and grabbed a 30-3 victory, but make no mistake, anyone who watched this team this year knows they are going nowhere. They were laughably bad in every facet in the opener on Labor Day against Ole Miss, taking idiotic personal foul penalties due to the frustration of not being able to cover a soul. Or stop the run. Also, guess what, they couldn't do anything on offense when Ole Miss still had interest in playing either. Even in that EKU game, they had some idiot receiver pull a DeSean Jackson move, celebrating early and dropping the ball short of the goal line on a walk in TD. UCF's offense with Taylor Gabriel and under Malzahn will look a lot like Ole Miss, and don't look now, but UCF's defense completely dominated Boise in week one. Malzahn brought his DC and a couple of previous defensive contributors with him from Auburn, and it's showing, as they rank 3rd against the run. Yes, you read that right....UCF ranks 3rd in the country against the run, and they played an actual good team in getting there. They're also 34th against the pass and doing well on 3rd down, so I'm guessing they'll not find Malik Cunningham's offensive stylings all that difficult to deal with. Louisville is due for about 4-5 turnovers in this game too, as they only turned it over once last week. UCF should be ready to go here, as even now they still don't get many chances to slap around a power 5 team.
 
Br@ssknux said:
2. UCF -7 @Louisville: (Friday) Louisville had a nice game last week as they got to screw around with an overmatched Eastern Kentucky squad and grabbed a 30-3 victory, but make no mistake, anyone who watched this team this year knows they are going nowhere. They were laughably bad in every facet in the opener on Labor Day against Ole Miss, taking idiotic personal foul penalties due to the frustration of not being able to cover a soul. Or stop the run. Also, guess what, they couldn't do anything on offense when Ole Miss still had interest in playing either. Even in that EKU game, they had some idiot receiver pull a DeSean Jackson move, celebrating early and dropping the ball short of the goal line on a walk in TD. UCF's offense with Taylor Gabriel and under Malzahn will look a lot like Ole Miss, and don't look now, but UCF's defense completely dominated Boise in week one. Malzahn brought his DC and a couple of previous defensive contributors with him from Auburn, and it's showing, as they rank 3rd against the run. Yes, you read that right....UCF ranks 3rd in the country against the run, and they played an actual good team in getting there. They're also 34th against the pass and doing well on 3rd down, so I'm guessing they'll not find Malik Cunningham's offensive stylings all that difficult to deal with. Louisville is due for about 4-5 turnovers in this game too, as they only turned it over once last week. UCF should be ready to go here, as even now they still don't get many chances to slap around a power 5 team.
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Think this one could be 20+
 
Br@ssknux said:
3-5 last week after a couple of really poorly conceived bets, most notably laying points with a Texas team that had no interest whatsoever in competing against one of the doormats from the conference they're apparently never going to be able to compete in. Live and learn, I say, and don't be an idiot. I told myself that a few times Saturday night, and although I intend to listen to myself, I can't make any promises. the feeble 3-5 effort brings the overall record to 11-8-1.

I usually don't like to bet on the Thursday night games, but......

1. Ohio +20 @ Louisiana Lafayette(Thursday): Yes, I'm putting my hard earned money on a team that has just lost in back to back weeks, first to Syracuse by 20 and then at the buzzer to FCS Duquesne, who prior to this I thought only had a basketball team. I realize that LaLa was a team that we all liked last year, and that they had everyone coming back from a team that handled Iowa State and lost only once, on the road, by the field goal to Coastal Carolina. The problem is that they haven't been anywhere close to the team they were last year...so far. Why? Who knows? Sometimes the chemistry just isn't the same, a key injury here and there and a team starts to drift. But so far this year, it just hasn't been there for them. In week 1 at Texas, they lost, which is understandable at first, but they gave up 10/15 on 3rd down and 1/ on 4th down, rendering themselves completely unable to accomplish anything on defense to get off the field. It culminated in a rather easy 20 point win for Texas, who then immediately went on the road and were completely non-competitive at Arkansas from jump street. They were run out of Fayetteville, failing to even pretend to compete against the perennial last place squad in the SEC West. LaLa rebounded by Getting outgained 511-394 on their home field against Nicholls State. Nicholls State converted 9/16 on third down and basically did whatever they wanted in the passing game. The Cajuns squeaked out a 27-24 win, but the numbers don't really indicate much of a difference between these 2 squads. Since Ohio actually lost to an FCS team and LaLa merely escaped with a 3 point win, LaLa is laying 20. Listen, I'm not wild about betting on what we've seen from the post-Solich Bobcats so far, but this looks to me to be major value. LaLa has done nothing to deserve being a 20 point favorite in this spot. If they rise up and do a 180 here I'll tip my cap, but it doesn't usually work that way, and Ohio is likely to give whatever their best effort is this week.
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I’m on the under so think these two correlate pretty well
 
Br@ssknux said:
2. UCF -7 @Louisville: (Friday) Louisville had a nice game last week as they got to screw around with an overmatched Eastern Kentucky squad and grabbed a 30-3 victory, but make no mistake, anyone who watched this team this year knows they are going nowhere. They were laughably bad in every facet in the opener on Labor Day against Ole Miss, taking idiotic personal foul penalties due to the frustration of not being able to cover a soul. Or stop the run. Also, guess what, they couldn't do anything on offense when Ole Miss still had interest in playing either. Even in that EKU game, they had some idiot receiver pull a DeSean Jackson move, celebrating early and dropping the ball short of the goal line on a walk in TD. UCF's offense with Taylor Gabriel and under Malzahn will look a lot like Ole Miss, and don't look now, but UCF's defense completely dominated Boise in week one. Malzahn brought his DC and a couple of previous defensive contributors with him from Auburn, and it's showing, as they rank 3rd against the run. Yes, you read that right....UCF ranks 3rd in the country against the run, and they played an actual good team in getting there. They're also 34th against the pass and doing well on 3rd down, so I'm guessing they'll not find Malik Cunningham's offensive stylings all that difficult to deal with. Louisville is due for about 4-5 turnovers in this game too, as they only turned it over once last week. UCF should be ready to go here, as even now they still don't get many chances to slap around a power 5 team.
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Such a sexy write-up
 
Like them both! I know you're not a totals guy, but doesn't 57 seem pretty high for Ohio/ULL? Somebody's probably gonnanhave to score more than 31 for this to sniff an over, and I just don't see it.
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Like them both! I know you're not a totals guy, but doesn't 57 seem pretty high for Ohio/ULL? Somebody's probably gonnanhave to score more than 31 for this to sniff an over, and I just don't see it.
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Sorry I was late on this one Rusty, but as you noted, I'm the wrong guy to ask on totals.

Just as an aside...

In an effort to learn from our mistakes, it's always useful to self evaluate. Thursday night games, at least in my previous experience don't usually follow logic, and I used to stay disciplined and lay off even if I liked a side a lot. I ignored that experience with this play but also should remember that 2 weeks of results give us only theories or hypotheses, not confirmed facts. Logic is based on known facts, so dismissing the possibility that LaLa would have infinitely less of a problem with Ohio than they did with Nicholls State was not wise, although it seemed logical.

On another note, given what Ohio looked like last night(i.e. gained less than half the yards that Nicholls did against a defense that previously surrendered 24/34 3rd down conversions) what would we make the line of Nicholls v Ohio on a neutral site? I dare say I would lay a TD with Nicholls.
 
3. Cincinnati -3(-118) @ Indiana: It's all right there for Cincy. Their hotshot coach stuck around after a New Years Six bowl appearance, their QB Desmond Ritter is back for his 4th year as a starter, their top notch defense returns 8 of their top 11 tacklers and the vast majority of their playmakers are back supporting Ritter. This is their first of 2 Power 5 chances to stake their claim to a potential playoff spot in a year where a couple dominoes have already fallen in their favor. Defensively, Indiana poses a pretty imposing task as they returned a lot of pieces from a top 20 national defense from last year, but they are banged up this week, missing a couple starters in their secondary. Also, on offense it's been a continuation of last year for the Hoosiers. Even though they were efficient, they were opportunistic on offense, only ranking 90th in yards per play and 111th in yards per carry. This year it's more of the same. They did nothing against Iowa in week one on offense, and even against an overmatched Idaho squad, they only rushed for 3.5 yards per carry and QB Michael Penix needed 11 completions to get to 66 yards passing. If not for a late 76 yard TD pass among the backups in garbage time, they wouldn't have cracked 265 total yards. Their offense is going to be hard pressed to get much going against this Bearcat D, and if Desmond Ridder plays like he's capable, I don't see how the Hoosiers can keep pace. The whole world is on Cincy, so that bothers me, but in order to cover this, they'll probably have to win outright, and that seems like too tall of a task for them against a motivated Cincy squad that will likely give them their best shot.
 
booksbestfriend said:
Usually spells disaster.
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I know I know, I keep telling myself how dumb it was to back off Broncos last week cause everyone got on their bandwagon. I said since start of preseason if teddy b won the job id love them at nyg but then they went out and looked great all preseason amd got really popular and scared me off what was really one my favorite plays. Lol. I don’t wanna do that again, I mean we all bet bama 1st half every week and that always cashes! So there are exceptions!
 
I know I’ve said this 100x this week but I just really can’t see cincy blowing this chance, I think they too good to squander their 1st crack at a power 5 this year.
 
4. Michigan State +7(-113) @ Miami(FL): Miami was non competitive against Alabama (no criticism there) but last week escaped by the skin of their teeth at home against Appy State. Appy State is pretty good, no the result of the game doesn't bother me much, but the fact that their defense couldn't rattle the eminently rattleable Chase Brice sends off warning sirens for me. Brice is an absolute walking turnover, having had to slink out of Durham like a hooded figure at midnight due to his terrible performance as Duke's starter last year which set the Blue Devil program back a decade. Well, that's an exaggeration, but poor David Cutcliffe may never recover from the trauma of seeing his previously efficient offense turn into a horror show of INTs. Now the Canes face a Michigan State team that frankly wasn't high on coming in, but have greatly improved themselves from last year, especially offensively, having moved on from the ham-fisted passing game led by Rocky Lombardi. I liked that they got Anthony Russo to transfer in from Temple. Russo had some pretty eye opening numbers prior to Rod Carey fully instilling his unfortunate influence on the Owls program. Surprisingly, Russo didn't even win the job, losing out to my former Naperville neighbor(yes, really!!) Peyton Thorne. Thorne was a superstar at Naperville Central but if he beat out Russo, he's definitely legit. The Spartans also have shown off a very good running game, running wild on Northwestern in week 1. They also have a couple electric wide receivers in Jayden Reed and Jalen Nailor. On the flip side, Manny Diaz is still standing over there doing whatever it is he does, and the vibe at Miami just doesn't seem to be right. There's not much explosiveness to complement D'Eriq King on offense, and the fact that this is a noon kickoff probably means that the Canes will be sluggish. I kind of like the Spartans outright in this one, so I'll definitely take a TD (Bought the half point). It's another public side, but I am really skeptical that Miami can rise up and give a performance necessary to cover this.
 
Good stuff. For the record I love cinncy too but am staying away from this week. Them and the UVA game I love but for whatever reason my tinfoil hat radar is keeping me off both of them
 
5. Nebraska +23 @Oklahoma: Ok, here's one that isn't a public darling. On the contrary, everybody likes to laugh at Nebraska's expense, but I actually think they have a pretty good shot to hang in this game. Offensively, they can definitely pile up the yards, and if Adrian Martinez can just keep from throwing it to the other team and coughing it up, they should be able to finish off enough drives to keep the game within this number. Their loss to Illinois was a little deceiving as they outgained the Illini and spent the entire game shooting themselves in the foot. Frost and company have been comically bad at finding ways to lose games they should win, but they don't need to win this one. Oklahoma will need to be every bit as good as their preseason press clippings offensively to cover this, and even if they are, they showed against Tulane that they are capable of giving up points, just like in previous years. This is a bit of a hunch, but I'll take the pile of points with the Huskers.
 
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6. @Colorado -2 v Minnesota: Minnesota opened the favorite here, and pro money pushed it the other way almost immediately. Although Colorado spent most of their game last week spinning their wheels on offense against Texas A&M, they slugged it out toe to toe with a top 10 team and will definitely see some class relief with this awful Minnesota defense coming in. The Gophers were lucky to beat Miami(OH) last week without their best player Mo Ibrahim, outgained 344-287. They'll play a better defense this week and they'll have to do it on the road in the mountain air. Tanner Morgan is the focal point of the Minny offense now, but Colorado had a very solid pass defense last year and they look to have another one this year as well, befuddling Jimbo Fisher's backup QB last week. As we all know, bad defenses don't travel, and the Gophers are among the country's worst in every category again this year after 2 weeks. The home squad should handle this one.
 
7. @Kansas State +2 v Nevada: Unfortunately for K State, QB Skylar Thompson is going to be out, and that's the reason that the Cats find themselves a home favorite to Nevada here. Backup QB Will Howard will take over, and that's not exactly music to the ears of K State fans because he struggled mightily throwing the ball when he was in there. However, the KState attack has never been predicated on the pass, and Howard is an effective runner, as is Deuce Vaughn. Carson Strong is perhaps a future pro at QB for Nevada, but K State's defense is solid, having already dominated Stanford on a neutral field. Chris Kleimann definitely knows what he's doing and it won't be hard for him to motivate a team that's tabbed a home dog to a Mountain West team. Throw in the fact that Nevada gave up almost 6 yards per carry to Cal in week one and I'll figure that K State will be able to run it on the Wolf Pack, which is the Cats bread and butter,
 
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I think Strong is a 1st round pick and has a chance to be really good at next level. Kid makes all the throws.
 
8. Purdue +7.5 @ Notre Dame: At the beginning of the year when a handicapper may have looked ahead to this game, they would have assumed that Purdue would be at a major disadvantage in the run game. Notre Dame has consistently been able to run the ball and stop the run in recent years, and both of their stud running backs, Kyren Williams and Chris Tyree were coming back. It hasn't happened. Somehow, despite having played two teams (Florida State and Toledo) that ND should have been able to dominate in the trenches, they are averaging less than 3 yards a carry and are giving up more than 5 yards per carry on defense. Purdue actually has the advantage statistically in the run game. They also have the advantage in the pass game and on 3rd down when they have the ball. Notre Dame has been surprisingly bad on defense, so much so that I think Purdue is going to be able to score, probably as effectively as Toledo and Florida State. Believe it or not, Purdue has the best defense that ND has faced yet this year, so we'll see if Jack Coan can keep up what has been pretty solid play so far. ND hasn't shown that they can blow out a team like Purdue, so I think this one will come down to the wire, and if ND plays like they have in their previous 2 games, they are in major danger of losing this one.
 
on some opposite sides but you make convincing arguments per usual. Good luck brass
 
9. Alabama -14(-116) @Florida: Fade Alabama at your own risk at this point. I think everyone understands this, but they don't appear to heed it because the line just keeps dropping. Everyone is waiting for Bryce Young to have a subpar day, but I don't know that this is a reasonable concept. I like Dan Mullen, and the fact that he's Florida's coach means that there's very little chance they ever have any 6-6 or 5-7 seasons again, but I don't like their chances here. Emory Jones doesn't strike me as the kind of QB who can muster up the kind of offensive performance needed to keep this game close. He was 14/22 for 150 1 TD and 2 picks against a putrid South Florida defense. Interestingly enough, Florida's backup QB accumulated 267 yards in garbage time on just 7 plays(!!), so you might say Florida has a better chance to hang in this game if he plays. That guy, Anthony Richardson, actually leads the Gators in rushing on the year. Going from South Florida to Alabama is probably as severe a step up in competition that you'll see in college football this year. I don't think Florida has the horses to score with Alabama, and nobody has the horses to keep the Alabama offense in check.
 
10. Arkansas State +17 @ Washington: I tried to give Washington the benefit of the doubt last week, but they just refused to do anything positive in that Michigan game, a week after looking pathetic while losing to Montana. I realize teams can improve from week to week, and I know Arkansas State's defense is not good, but the starting point this Husky offense has to dog out from is deep, and they look to be the kind of offense that makes just about any defense look competent. So far this year, Arkansas State has been a video game offense in their games against Memphis and Central Arkansas . They have 2 QBs who have had almost perfect efficiency games this year(Florida State washout James Blackman and Layne Hatcher) so if the moment is too big for one of them, they've got options to climb in through the back door if for some reason the Huskies discover competence. If Butch Jones and Co can find a way to get 20 points on the scoreboard,, that will require the Huskies to reach almost 40, something they appear to be incapable of if they played against tackling dummies.
 
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11. @Iowa -22.5 v Kent: I'm definitely not a huge fan of laying big points, especially against a capable offense like Kent, but I'm ok with it here. We all know that Iowa has had some fantastic results in their first two games: A blowout of Indiana in week one and yet another voodoo magic victory over the tortured Matt Campbell and Iowa State in week 2. Both ranked teams, neither game being in doubt in the 4th quarter. That's all well and good, but there are warning signs for Iowa, namely their offense, and QB Spencer Petras. The Hawkeyes, believe it or not, averaged 2.88 yards per play in that game(!!!) and for the season so far they average only 3.84 yards per play, good for 125th in the country, right below Akron. Weak for a team ranked 5th in the nation, isn't it? It's definitely a concern for Kirk Ferentz, and I'm sure he would like nothing better than to get the offense going. To be fair, it's probably only a matter of time until these averages even out, because although Iowa's offense is certainly not great, they aren't THAT bad. Luckily for the Hawkeyes, the perfect squad to get the offense right is coming in in the Kent State Golden Flashes. They turned some heads last year with some great offensive numbers, but most of their damage was done against the doormats not only of the MAC, but the nation, Bowling Green and Akron, both of whom felt the full brunt of Kent's offense scoring at will. What people might not remember however, if that Kent had to keep scoring in those games because they couldn't stop anyone on defense. For example, the aforementioned doormats, Kent and Akron both ran wild on the Flashes with Akron RB Teon Dollard somehow totaling 202 yards rushing on almost 10 yards per carry, and BG getting 260 yards rushing. The only competent offense they played was Buffalo, and you probably remember what happened there: RB Jarrett Patterson ran for 400+ yards and 8 TDs and his backup grabbed 2 TDs and 100 plus yards as well. It's been more of the same this year, as a young Texas A&M offense playing their first game dragged them for 8 yards per pass and 7+ yards per carry in week one. I mentioned earlier that Kent has a good offense, and I guess they do, but not against elite defenses like Iowa. QB Dustin Crum managed only 12/26 for 89 yards and 2 picks against A&M, and he'll go through more of the same against the Hawkeyes. I can see Iowa happily running the score up here to get the bad taste out of the mouth of the offense. They are in position to be in the playoff picture with what they've done so far, and they'll need to get those offensive numbers up to help their case.
 
Total seems high for an Iowa game, which tells me Iowa's O will get it going, but Kent should contribute as well.
 
12. @Mem phis+3.5 v Mississippi State: After watching Leach and co in their first two games, this spot seems to be very dangerous for them. Their offense hasn't really looked much better than it did last year; and they've been fortunate in both games, spotting La Tech a huge lead before squeaking out a win on a missed buzzer beating FG, and getting a bunch of turnovers and a kickoff return TD to help them get by an NC State team that usually finds ways to underachieve in situations like that. Now they travel to Memphis, who appears to have found their next QB, Seth Henigan, who has been hot so far and torched Arky State for 5 TDs and slew of big plays. Memphis has a pedigree of taking down lower level SEC squads who venture into the Liberty Bowl, and Silverfield beat both UCF and Houston at home last year as a dog. Leach has never been a good road favorite, and with LSU on deck next week, this effort might be lacking. I can easily see Memphis winning here.
 
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13. @Penn State -5 v Auburn: I would usually be very hesitant to lay points with a Big Ten squad over an SEC squad, but then I realized that this scenario, an SEC team traveling north to play a high profile game almost never happens. In this case, I know Auburn fits the bill as a high profile SEC team, but what can we say about an Auburn team coached by an SEC outside like Bryan Harsin? Well based on this year, we can't say anything because Auburn couldn't have picked a better duo of cupcakes than our old pals the Akron Zips and Alabama State. They are one of the few teams who had to replace a bunch of starters, with only 9 returning, so it's very difficult to tell what they are. Penn State has already won at Wisconsin and then easily handled a better than Penn State made them look Ball State team. To say Harsin is stepping up in class, especially on national TV in a white out, would be a huge understatement. Now I know Auburn's defense will make things tough on the Penn State offense, but vice versa for sure, and we all know how rough a time Bo Nix has had on the road. This is going to be just as severe an environment as he'll find in the SEC, and Penn State doesn't get chances like this often. If Malzahn was still coaching Auburn, I might look at this differently, but Harsin has a lot to prove before I would expect him to take Penn State to the wire in an environment like this in his first road game. Also don't forget that PSU has covered 6 in a row since their 0-5 start last year and Franklin has an amazing run of covering 12 straight off a win. I don't usually put a lot of stock in that, but there must be something to it when it's on a 12 game run.
 
14. Utah State +9 @Air Force: I feel I should repeat this. Utah State is actually a pretty good football program. It's been that way for a long time, it just ran off the rails when Gary Anderson, previously also a competent football coach had something terrible happen to him while in Madison and transformed into a Dr Death of sorts for football programs. Now that his second tenure at Utah State is over the Aggies can go back to being good again, and it appears as though Blake Anderson and his QB sidekick Logan Bonner are doing that in his first year in Logan, UT. They've already beaten Washington State on the road as a 22 point dog, and now they go to Colorado Springs catching 9 against Air Force. AF is coming off an emotional game, having pulled away from a feeble Navy offense late across the country in Anapolis. Air Force didn't look great on offense for most of the game either, and they aren't really all that strong as a favorite in MWC. I checked how they do after beating Navy(easy to check into if you have Phil Steele Plus, btw), and predictably it not great, especially if they are favored. By my count they've failed to cover in 7 of the past 9 in that scenario. Again, I think Utah State is a live dog until further notice, and I think they find themselves in a good spot here.
 
2daBank said:
We all love cincy, that kinda scares me. Lol
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For me, it's more that I dislike Indiana. As Brassknux pointed out, the results last year were better than the numbers suggested they should have been. Not as extreme as Michigan State in 2015, but same phenomenon.
 
Br@ssknux said:
6. @Colorado -2 v Minnesota: Minnesota opened the favorite here, and pro money pushed it the other way almost immediately. Although Colorado spent most of their game last week spinning their wheels on offense against Texas A&M, they slugged it out toe to toe with a top 10 team and will definitely see some class relief with this awful Minnesota defense coming in. The Gophers were lucky to beat Miami(OH) last week without their best player Mo Ibrahim, outgained 344-287. They'll play a better defense this week and they'll have to do it on the road in the mountain air. Tanner Morgan is the focal point of the Minny offense now, but Colorado had a very solid pass defense last year and they look to have another one this year as well, befuddling Jimbo Fisher's backup QB last week. As we all know, bad defenses don't travel, and the Gophers are among the country's worst in every category again this year after 2 weeks. The home squad should handle this one.
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i have nothing much to say bout this game but im a big believer in playing the side books opened as favs and get bet to dogs,, this one not being on my radar hopefully that theory is wrong in this one!!! gl today
 
M.W. said:
For me, it's more that I dislike Indiana. As Brassknux pointed out, the results last year were better than the numbers suggested they should have been. Not as extreme as Michigan State in 2015, but same phenomenon.
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i love cincy but i agree bout hoosiers as well, i think it really tough for a program like them to sustain success once they have a breakout season and all a sudden have expectations. whole new world for them plus lets be real, last year was the outlier of all outlier seasons!!
 
Br@ssknux said:
14. Utah State +9 @Air Force: I feel I should repeat this. Utah State is actually a pretty good football program. It's been that way for a long time, it just ran off the rails when Gary Anderson, previously also a competent football coach had something terrible happen to him while in Madison and transformed into a Dr Death of sorts for football programs. Now that his second tenure at Utah State is over the Aggies can go back to being good again, and it appears as though Blake Anderson and his QB sidekick Logan Bonner are doing that in his first year in Logan, UT. They've already beaten Washington State on the road as a 22 point dog, and now they go to Colorado Springs catching 9 against Air Force. AF is coming off an emotional game, having pulled away from a feeble Navy offense late across the country in Anapolis. Air Force didn't look great on offense for most of the game either, and they aren't really all that strong as a favorite in MWC. I checked how they do after beating Navy(easy to check into if you have Phil Steele Plus, btw), and predictably it not great, especially if they are favored. By my count they've failed to cover in 7 of the past 9 in that scenario. Again, I think Utah State is a live dog until further notice, and I think they find themselves in a good spot here.
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'on this one also, even sprinkled the ml..
 
Br@ssknux said:
14. Utah State +9 @Air Force: I feel I should repeat this. Utah State is actually a pretty good football program. It's been that way for a long time, it just ran off the rails when Gary Anderson, previously also a competent football coach had something terrible happen to him while in Madison and transformed into a Dr Death of sorts for football programs. Now that his second tenure at Utah State is over the Aggies can go back to being good again, and it appears as though Blake Anderson and his QB sidekick Logan Bonner are doing that in his first year in Logan, UT. They've already beaten Washington State on the road as a 22 point dog, and now they go to Colorado Springs catching 9 against Air Force. AF is coming off an emotional game, having pulled away from a feeble Navy offense late across the country in Anapolis. Air Force didn't look great on offense for most of the game either, and they aren't really all that strong as a favorite in MWC. I checked how they do after beating Navy(easy to check into if you have Phil Steele Plus, btw), and predictably it not great, especially if they are favored. By my count they've failed to cover in 7 of the past 9 in that scenario. Again, I think Utah State is a live dog until further notice, and I think they find themselves in a good spot here.
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Love the take on Coach Anderson. So true!

I regret not jumping on USU week one when I had the same general feeling. I may have to join you this week.
 
Br@ssknux said:
13. @Penn State -5 v Auburn: . . . Also don't forget that PSU has covered 6 in a row since their 0-5 start last year and Franklin has an amazing run of covering 12 straight off a win. I don't usually put a lot of stock in that, but there must be something to it when it's on a 12 game run.
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Franklin has a longer history of streakiness, I believe. I will have to check my numbers but this is a great point!
 
Br@ssknux said:
7. @Kansas State +2 v Nevada: Unfortunately for K State, QB Skylar Thompson is going to be out, and that's the reason that the Cats find themselves a home favorite to Nevada here. Backup QB Will Howard will take over, and that's not exactly music to the ears of K State fans because he struggled mightily throwing the ball when he was in there. However, the KState attack has never been predicated on the pass, and Howard is an effective runner, as is Deuce Vaughn. Carson Strong is perhaps a future pro at QB for Nevada, but K State's defense is solid, having already dominated Stanford on a neutral field. Chris Kleimann definitely knows what he's doing and it won't be hard for him to motivate a team that's tabbed a home dog to a Mountain West team. Throw in the fact that Nevada gave up almost 6 yards per carry to Cal in week one and I'll figure that K State will be able to run it on the Wolf Pack, which is the Cats bread and butter,
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Nice start. Wish I'd gotten on it.
 
15 Virginia +8(-114) @ North Carolina: Virginia beat North Carolina last year in Charlottesville, so UNC has revenge on the mind, but Virginia was able to pile up 44 points against the Heels last year against a defense that included their unquestioned leader Chazz Surratt. That team also included Dyami Brown Dazz Newsome and the Carter/Williams duo in the backfield. Offensively, Virginia looks very good with the Robert Inouye design, and they had Illinois on roller skates all day last week, and say what you will about Bret Bielema and his staff, they are an experienced, professional staff and they were flummoxed by all the misdirection and speed. Mack Brown is a solid coach to get a program to the point of contention, but as a week to week strategist, he's a roster builder. I think Virginia sees this as a chance to put themselves on the national scene, and with a loss, UNC is just trying to get their footing. I think UNC gets UVA's best shot in this one, and Brennen Armstrong has some playmakers capable of putting some points up in this one.
 
16. Stanford -12.5 @Vanderbilt: I really didn't want to play this game, because recency bias is a very dangerous habit to fall into as a handicapper, but this just seems like too good of an opportunity. Tanner McKee apparently hadn't properly paid his dues as a Freshman in David Shaw's eyes by the opener against K State, so he didn't start and didn't play until Stanford was hopelessly behind. They played him in week 2 and it was a totally different story for the Cardinal as they so thoroughly dominated USC that the Trojans were forced to launch Clay Helton. Going forward, I'd expect more competence from than than what we saw in week 1. Vanderbilt somehow was able to manage a road victory over a similarly foul Colorado State team, but we can't forget what Vandy looked like the last time they teed it up in Nashville, getting held to 3 paltry points against known defensive juggernaut East Tennessee State. We should also remember that Vandy is 3-12 ATS in their last 15 as a home dog. Maybe Clark Lea makes a difference in that regard, but things like that are usually inherent within a program.
 
17. @BYU +3.5 v Arizona State: The concept of a "bad spot" usually needs 2 components: First, it has to not be very obvious. If everyone identifies something as a bad spot for a team, it probably isn't that bad of a spot and the team in question is well aware of said bad spot, limiting it's effect. Second, it should require some sort of unusual travel. A team wins a home game and then has to hit the road for a long road trip against a hostile, motivated opponent. This spread is what it is and has climbed a bit because many experts believe this is a bad spot for BYU. Granted, it's not ideal, since the Cougs finally got the Utah Mouse off their back last week and HC Sitake seemed to enjoy it a little too much. However, this game is also at home, so no travel is involved, and BYU gets another shot at a ranked Pac 12 squad on their home field. I would actually say that the spot is not ideal for ASU. Their two previous games were at home against cupcakes, and not they face a huge step up in class in the mountains in a really hostile environment. BYU bullied a usually tough team in Utah last week and have built up much more of a lather than the Sun Devils have. Getting a FG at home with BYU is something I find hard to pass up, and so I won't.
 
Br@ssknux said:
17 games is a huge card for me, hopefully I don't live to regret it. Thanks for all the feedback everyone.
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i love having that many plays,, i just couldnt find many i liked on this card,, loved the few i played but only have bout 5 i love.. gl rest of the way
 
The moral of the story was that I need to stop betting weeknight games. Or I need to start fading myself. 0-2 during the week caused a bad start, but ended up ok at 10-7 for the week.

Seriously, my record on weeknight games over the past 10 years has to be something like 8-20. If I post a weeknight game, FADE IT.

Oh and by the way, was there anybody out there that was looking at that SDSU spread and thinking, "Why is SDSU getting that many points?" but held off because they were afraid Whittingham would be mad and there would be no way Utah could get pushed around two weeks in a row? Yep me too.
 
Also.....I've been the biggest Michigan detractor around, but keep your eyes on them. Transitive property usually is only a curiosity, but you can't deny what they've done. I expected WMU to be able to move the ball on them and they couldn't. And when I say they couldn't, they moved the ball on ONE drive. Now look at what WMU did to what we assumed would be a good Pitt team. NIU beat Ga Tech and played Wyoming to a standstill and it was 63-3 with a quarter left to play. There's still a lot to prove, but I'll bet you could get a decent price on them for a playoff appearance, and Ohio State looks more and more human every week.
 
Br@ssknux said:
The moral of the story was that I need to stop betting weeknight games. Or I need to start fading myself. 0-2 during the week caused a bad start, but ended up ok at 10-7 for the week.

Seriously, my record on weeknight games over the past 10 years has to be something like 8-20. If I post a weeknight game, FADE IT.

Oh and by the way, was there anybody out there that was looking at that SDSU spread and thinking, "Why is SDSU getting that many points?" but held off because they were afraid Whittingham would be mad and there would be no way Utah could get pushed around two weeks in a row? Yep me too.
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Well, there was me who hated the fact that Utah was laying so many points, but actually took the Utes thinking their D would simply smoother the Aztecs and do lots of Utah things, things they used to do. After having witnessed it in the 1st H, I even came back in the 2nd H (was tied 10-10) laying 3 thinking, ok basically just win the game by one score. They couldn't do it. I don't really mind losing bets, but I do mind when I bet a favorite and they lose outright because I have this love for upsets and being on upsets, but it really bothers me when I get upset! Like when your friends are doing something fun but you have something else you have to do the whole time you are thinking "I want to be with them". I wanted to be with the Aztecs, but unfortunately I wasn't.
 
Oh, and also, I am not good on college Thursday or Friday games generally either. With rare exception, I make them small plays that do not have much of an impact win or lose. I don't know if it is me and the way that I look at games that doesn't tend to go my way on week night games, and like I force plays just because they are on when really if they were buried on a full Saturday I might give them no thought, or if just weird things unfold in those games. I try and protect myself on Thursdays and Fridays because while occasionally I can come out ahead and it's like a nice surprise, but more often than not, I was putting myself in a hole entering the real weekend action.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Also.....I've been the biggest Michigan detractor around, but keep your eyes on them. Transitive property usually is only a curiosity, but you can't deny what they've done. I expected WMU to be able to move the ball on them and they couldn't. And when I say they couldn't, they moved the ball on ONE drive. Now look at what WMU did to what we assumed would be a good Pitt team. NIU beat Ga Tech and played Wyoming to a standstill and it was 63-3 with a quarter left to play. There's still a lot to prove, but I'll bet you could get a decent price on them for a playoff appearance, and Ohio State looks more and more human every week.
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They've come along how we hoped with the changes. I'd say exceeded those expectations...

But....tough road games sooner rather than later...

Wisconsin
Michigan State
Penn St

Nebraska no gimmie in Lincoln...
 
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