Week 3 Write Ups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Just a terrible week for me last week, but I suppose I'm die for a turnaround. 10-17 for the year, so lots of work to do.

I didn't do a lot of recon on the losses, but when I looked at them again I noticed some pretty egregious luck, so it made me feel a bit better about the logic of the plays. No sense belaboring things, we move on.


1. Temple +9 @ Penn State: If there's karma in this world, Penn State will lose this game...shame on them for honoring Joe Paterno for anything. I could talk all night about that sordid tale, but I'll spare you guys the soapbox oration. Actually, Temple performed their own brand of rhythmic slapping on the Nits last year, and frankly, I don't see how things should so obviously be reversed this year. Temple was a 10-2 squad last year, and they return their starting QB, 1,000 yard rusher, and 6 of their top 8 tacklers on what was probably the best defense in the AAC last year, and was expected to be similar this year. The only problem is that Army came into Philly and laid a pretty severe beating on the Owls in week one, which pretty much destroyed the public perception of this squad immediately. QB PJ Walker's 3 INTs didn't help matters, and was pretty hard to fathom given his status as a long time starter and senior performer who sported a 19/8 ratio last year. Last week they got healthy with a feel good win over Stony Brook, and now get another crack at Penn State, whose defense has shown all kinds of holes in the defensive front that was not evident at all last year. Pittsburgh completely gashed them last week on the ground, Temple could be poised to do the same, especially if RB Jahad Thomas is ready to go after injuring his thumb. This team is not far removed from a great year last year, and has the same solid coaching staff led by Matt Ruhle. Absolutely NOBODY is giving them a shot in hell to compete in this game, as 84% of the public is on the Penn State. I might be wrong, but PSU seems anything but a juggernaut to me, and I think we'll see a very nice effort from Temple this week
 
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2. @Marshall -17(-120) v Akron: Marshall has only played one game this year, and it was against some random weak sister, but they look like they will be the class of their side of Conference USA this year. They return a very effective QB in Chase Litton, and he looked the part in week 1, throwing for 6 TDs and 309 yards on only 16 attempts! (19.3 ypa!). Akron on the other hand is coming off a torching at the hands of a Wisconsin team that most felt would be severely limited on offense, and even Bart Houston looked like Johnny Unitas against them. Offensively, Akron looks to be same as they ever were...dink and dunk passes leading to third and long after third and long. Marshall is always a borderline impossible place to play (17-9 ATS as a home favorite since 2012),a and if Akron is going to struggle against the pass and play like a bunch of scared children with no explosiveness on offense, it's going to be a long day for the Zips.
 
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3. Ohio +27 @ Tennessee: Frankly, I haven't been all that impressed by Tennessee so far this year. They were physically whipped for 3.5 quarters by Appy State yet escaped, and then last week they were completely dominated in the first half by VT, only to then see the Hokies shit the bed with turnovers in the second half.Tennessee was also pretty fortunate in that one, as they recovered all 7 of the balls that were fumbled in that game. Tenn was outgained by more than 200 in the first half and 75 for the game. Now they are facing an Ohio squad that just dominated Kansas and has had their run game rolling so far this year. Tennessee is ranked 112th in yards per play in their first 2 games, and I think there are real issues with their passing game. As long as the Bobcats can muster a couple scores, I would think we'll be ok here.
 
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The older I get (and I'm not THAT old) the harder it is for me to stay awake in the late night. I'll have the rest tomorrow AM.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Just a terrible week for me last week, but I suppose I'm die for a turnaround. 10-17 for the year, so lots of work to do.

I didn't do a lot of recon on the losses, but when I looked at them again I noticed some pretty egregious luck, so it made me feel a bit better about the logic of the plays. No sense belaboring things, we move on.


1. Temple +9 @ Penn State: If there's karma in this world, Penn State will lose this game...shame on them for honoring Joe Paterno for anything. I could talk all night about that sordid tale, but I'll spare you guys the soapbox oration. Actually, Temple performed their own brand of rhythmic slapping on the Nits last year, and frankly, I don't see how things should so obviously be reversed this year. Temple was a 10-2 squad last year, and they return their starting QB, 1,000 yard rusher, and 6 of their top 8 tacklers on what was probably the best defense in the AAC last year, and was expected to be similar this year. The only problem is that Army came into Philly and laid a pretty severe beating on the Owls in week one, which pretty much destroyed the public perception of this squad immediately. QB PJ Walker's 3 INTs didn't help matters, and was pretty hard to fathom given his status as a long time starter and senior performer who sported a 19/8 ratio last year. Last week they got healthy with a feel good win over Stony Brook, and now get another crack at Penn State, whose defense has shown all kinds of holes in the defensive front that was not evident at all last year. Pittsburgh completely gashed them last week on the ground, Temple could be poised to do the same, especially if RB Jahad Thomas is ready to go after injuring his thumb. This team is not far removed from a great year last year, and has the same solid coaching staff led by Matt Ruhle. Absolutely NOBODY is giving them a shot in hell to compete in this game, as 84% of the public is on the Penn State. I might be wrong, but PSU seems anything but a juggernaut to me, and I think we'll see a very nice effort from Temple this week
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PSU is Temple's Super Bowl.
 
Br@ssknux said:
3. Ohio +27 @ Tennessee: Frankly, I haven't been all that impressed by Tennessee so far this year, and with good reason. They were physically whipped for 3.5 quarters by Appy State yet escaped, and then last week they were completely dominated in the first half by VT only to eventually tire out VT and get the win. In that game, Tenn was outgained by more than 200 in the first half and 75 for the game in that tilt, and also fell on all 7 of the fumbles that were recovered in the game. I think their outrageous luck is due to end, and Ohio is coming off a great outing at Kansas. If the Bobcats can muster 17, we'll be in good shape
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I love the play! I'm on Ohio 1st half. They will stuff the run and force Dobbs to beat them over the top.
 
Only reason I don't like Ohio in this spot is that you're continuing to bet that Tennessee can't figure it out offensively and we have a ton of data that says Dobbs is a much better QB than he's been. To be honest, I kind of like this spot for Tennessee because Ohio is the kind of team that is simply going to miss tackles and let small/medium plays become big plays. You're basically asking the Ohio defense (which gave up 56 to Texas State) to hold down the Tennessee offense. At least we know that App State and Virginia Tech are good defensively.
 
"Marshall has only played one game this year, and it was against some random week sister" - thanks for a good laugh.
 
KobeJames823 said:
Only reason I don't like Ohio in this spot is that you're continuing to bet that Tennessee can't figure it out offensively and we have a ton of data that says Dobbs is a much better QB than he's been. To be honest, I kind of like this spot for Tennessee because Ohio is the kind of team that is simply going to miss tackles and let small/medium plays become big plays. You're basically asking the Ohio defense (which gave up 56 to Texas State) to hold down the Tennessee offense. At least we know that App State and Virginia Tech are good defensively.
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I can't argue at all with those points. That's the risk with a 27 point dog, and I got killed with those types of teams last week. I'm just thinking that Ohio has a good chance to keep it around 40 or less, and if they do that, they should get the couple of scores needed to get the cover. I also forgot to mention that Tennessee is in a sandwich spot off the Bristol game and with Florida on deck, so it might be a flat effort.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Yup, pretty sure Franklin has had this circled since last September after Temple stepped on PSU over and over in Philly.
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I think he meant that Temple gets up for PSU too. Franklin circles everything anyway. Yesterday's walk through, having breakfast, inhaling, exhaling.
 
4. New Mexico +7 (-120) @ Rutgers: New Mexico dropped their game last week against New Mexico State, and top returning rusher Teriyon Gipson got hurt last week and has been ruled out, knocking this line all the way up to 6.5, so I bought it to 7. Rutgers is a bit of a mess at this point with no semblance of a passing game and an existing roster trying to adapt to the new(and apparently, very dim) coaching staff. In the two first halves they played they've been outscored 38-7 and the TD was a special teams TD. That's no big deal against Washington, their first opponent, but it took them more than a half to start imposing their will against Howard, who is almost always one of the worst squads in FCS, routinely putting up scores like the 76-0 destruction they lived through last year at BC. Although UNM had its issues last week, rivalry games are sometimes strange animals, and the Lobos are back in the role they thrive in under Davie (10-5 as a road dog since 2012). Rutgers slow starts will likely more than mitigate the west coast to early east coast game issue, and frankly, I think UNM is a better team than Rutgers, as Davie has brought a scrappy culture in which they win road games outright(remember Boise last year). Getting a full TD here against a questionable squad was enough for me to pull the trigger.
 
5. Alabama -10.5 @ Ole Miss: I am not going to get in the way of this Alabama train right now, especially when they are likely to be highly motivated. The whole world knows that Ole Miss has beaten the Crimson Tide two years in a row, and there's no doubt Bama hasn't forgotten. This has morphed into a high profile game, and Alabama has absolutely steamrolled their opponents over the last 12 months in high profile games. There is absolutely no chance in hell that Ole Miss will run effectively in this game, so it will all be on the shoulders of Chad Kelly. I like Kelly, but that's not an enviable place to be against this group of assassins. We all were impressed by what Ole Miss did early in the Florida State game, but I think the way they looked in the second half of that game is a better indication of what we'll see. Bama has young QBs, but so did the Seminoles and we saw how that turned out. I see this as a 34-13 game.
 
6. @Michigan -18 v Colorado: Everyone is enthralled with this edition of the Colorado Buffaloes, and I'll admit that I like the direction that Mike McIntyre is going with their program. They competed very well on the road in situations like this in the PAC 12 last year, and have looked good so far this year, especially against Colorado State in their opener. I just have a bad feeling for them in this game. I actually think they could play very well and still walk out of the Big House without a cover. First of all, I believe their performance against CSU was more of an indictment of how terrible CSU played than how Colorado looked. If you watched that game, you'd admit that CSU would have lost to the post Bob Stitt Colorado School of Mines that day. Second of all, every talking head in the country is telling us that Colorado will give Michigan all they can handle this week, and I'm sure Harbaugh has had enough of it, and that's relevant. Colorado also has been trolling Michigan all week with GIFS of the famous Kordell Stewart to Michael Westbrook game winner back in '94. Third, Michigan hasn't even played all that well this year and they're still covering 35+ point spreads. A lot of Michigan fans will tell you that they looked like dogshit last week, and UCF coach Scott Frost was actually puffing his chest out talking about how they took the fight to Wolverines. Hearing all that would make you think the final score was something like 21-17, but it was actually a 51-14 blowout. Michigan got outgained by 100+ on the ground, yet still found a way to cover a 35 point spread. My guess is that despite the score, Harbaugh was seething at the stat discrepancy, and my guess is that as a result of that and Harbaugh's annoyance at the Colorado shenanigans, Michigan is going to give Colorado it's A game today. If that happens, and I think it will, 18 won't be a lot for the Wolverines to cover.
 
7. Oregon +3 @Nebraska: Is Nebraska under Mike Riley some sort of juggernaut that exists only to exert it's inevitable will on the likes of puny weaklings like Oregon? Listening to people talk this week in various podcasts, radio shows, there's almost a sort of resignation that Oregon has no chance to stop Nebraska's offense, as if Tommie Frazier is suiting up this week or something. I get it, Nebraska is pretty good on offense, and Oregon has looked bad on defense over the past 12 months, but they aren't this irresistible force that is predestined to drop 50 points every week. I'm still smarting from the 4th quarter luck parade they stumbled into last week when Wyoming scatterbrained quarterback gifted them 5 INTS and let them pile up 28 4th quarter points. This week they play an Oregon squad whose efficiency on the road cannot be understated. Since 2011(mostly under Helfrich) they are 19-3 ATS on the road, 5-0 as a road dog and 4-1 straight up in those games. Offensively, new QB Dakota(must admit betting on a QB named Dakota scares me) Prokop has looked fantastic so far and they return explosive RB Royce Freeman who has averaged 7.0 ypc over his career, and 6 of their top 7 receivers from last year. Nebraska's chances to shut them down are slim in my opinion. I don't think the Huskers have it in them to pull this off, and I think Oregon's pedigree as a road team and especially a road dog is impossible to pass up. When Oregon is a big home favorite, they have their issues, but not in this role.
 
Bad match-up for the Bobcats @ Tenn. They couldn't stop Texas State so what is Tenn going to do? I watched the Kansas game and to me it was more about Jayhawks ineptness than anything OU did on defense. Dumb play calling, fumbling two punts etc...I love Poling and in the MAC OU has a good defensive line, but against TEnn. I think that's pretty well negated. You might squeeze a cover out of OU, but I kind of doubt it. I'm leaning on the over myself, I think we do see 17 or more from Frank's crew but 40+ (maybe even 50+) from the Vols.

I do agree with you on the Duckies. Huskers are darlings all of a sudden...I've seen this movie before and everyone dies in the end.
 
8. San Diego State -10.5 @ Northern Illinois: I would never think that I'd be going against the Huskies in this situation based on their history ATS, but this is a mess for NIU right now. They have been gashed on the ground two weeks in a row and face their third very tough matchup. (Their scheduler needs to get off the crack...I'm sure Rod Carey has made his feelings known about this). Last week SDSU got the win but not the cover against Cal because they played defense like a bunch of morons and committed a bunch of "unenlightened" penalties that allowed the Bears to put up 40. That's admittedly very uncharacteristic of a Rocky Long defense and this group in particular as they were extremely solid on that side of the ball last year. They'll be looking to made amends for that this week, and they couldn't have a better foil than this NIU offense to get back on track. The Huskies absolutely cannot run the ball this year, and QB Drew Hare, the only guy on the roster who can get the ball to stud WR Kenny Golliday is now out with an ankle injury. In will come Ryan Graham, and I am still recovering from the horror of watching him play the last time he took the field in the bowl game against Boise last December. He quarterbacking stylings resulted in a 654-33 yard edge for Boise in that game, probably the worst curb stomping in bowl history. NIU hasn't really recovered since then. Throw in the fact that NIU is 123rd in total rushing defense for the year so far and that Donnell Pumphrey just piled up 281 yards rushing last week and his one looks pretty promising for the Aztecs.
 
Yeah Marsski, looks like Ohio is a pretty unpopular play this week. I get what you're saying. I just think we get another shit performance out of Tennessee this week in front of the Florida game. We'll see.
 
9. Boston College +6 @ Virginia Tech: With a defense as good as BC's against a questionable offense like VT, 6 points is a hell of a lot. BC is giving up only 3.0 yards per play, and this is just a continuation of what they've been doing for the better part of 12 months on defense. Last week against UMass they gave up only 122 total yards, a week after they gave up less than 300 against Georgia Tech. It was the 10th time since the beginning of last year that they gave up fewer than 300 yards, so this is nothing new. Also, I really like the way their offense has looked, compared to last year. When you have a defense that shuts people down like they have, you don't need much, and under Patrick Towles, they've been at least competent. VT also has been a turnover machine this year, and that's something that usually lingers. I think BC can get the outright here, but in any case, I can't see them giving up enough points to where that spread is going to have a lot of value.
 
10. @Oklahoma State -4 v Pittsburgh: I just don't like this matchup for Pitt. They are coming off a very emotional win last week against Penn State and now have to hit the road to play an Oklahoma State team that absolutely cannot lose this game if it wants to have a successful season. It's becoming clear that Nathan Peterman is pretty incapable of going downfield without Tyler Boyd, so they will be reliant on the run game to get their points, and I don't think that's a good scenario for them because based on how their pass defense looked against Penn State in the second half last week, Okie State will be moving the ball on them through the air, making it unlikely that a ball control game will be effective, especially since I think OSU is going to be a better run defense in this spot than Penn State was last week. In the end, if Pitt can't throw it effectively, I think this is going o get very difficult for them to hang around. In other words, I don't see them putting up another 39 points with a 91 yard passing performance from their QB.
 
Just pray you don't get MAC officials in that one ....

Great reads as always and best of luck
 
11.@NC State -24 v Old Dominion: If you caught Clown's writeup on this one, I really couldn't put it any better. NC State, even though they lost last week, really impressed me. You could see the progression that Doering is leading there. Even with a new QB, hey looked good on offense, mostly because Matt Dayes was just challenging the manhood of whoever came in his path. They lost, I get it,. but crazy things seem to happen in Greenville NC when in state rivals make the trip there. Now they face an ODU team who will be out manned and this is the only game on their radar. Doering is too good a coach in my opinion to not squeeze out a good performance from his guys, and if he gets that, they shouldn't have much problem with the Monarchs who are still building. There should be a pretty sizable edge on the Wolfpack's side when ODU has the ball as well, judging off the boxscore of last year's game.(148 total yards for ODU) Solid RB Ray Lawry being banged up doesn't help ODU's cause either.
 
12. Mississippi State +13 @ LSU: LSU is now going with Purdue reject Danny Etling at QB, and I'm not sure that it's going to make any difference because he was 6/14 against Jacksonville State last week. At this point, I think we can blame LSU's offensive malaise on the staff and scheme because there's little doubt that they have the horses to be a good offense. MSU has settled on QB Nick Fitzgerald who ran wild on South Carolina last week. I trust Dan Mullen to come up with a good offensive plan, and I think that might be all that's needed as long as LSU is struggling to put up points against teams they overmatch. This looks like a 22-17 type game to me, and the way things are going for Les Miles right now, an outright win for Mississippi State wouldn't surprise me. If they hold up against the run, they'll be in good shape.
 
13 @Oklahoma +1 v Ohio State: This is more than a hunch than anything, but I really have a hard time thinking that Oklahoma is just going to get pushed around a bullied on their home field like many people are prognosticating. Bob Stoops usually underachieves when people expect much from him, and overachieves when people expect little, and people are expecting little here. Despite that, they still have world class athletes all over the field on both sides of a ball, a Heisman candidate at QB, and two very good running backs matched up against a team whose roster is filled with guys who have played two total games. I am obviously a huge backer of Urban Meyer, but he isn't quite a dog in this one, so I think the Sooners have the situational edge in my opinion. This should be a fun one to watch.
 
15. USC +8.5 @ Stanford: I noticed this line is lower elsewhere but BOL just gave it to me at 8.5 so I took it. I'm a bit skeptical about Stanford in the post Kevin Hogan era. In their first game with Kansas State, other than a couple of long Christian McCaffrey runs, you could make a case that they were outplayed by the Wildcats for the other 150 some odd plays. USC has already gone through the indignity of the Alabama game, and they are definitely getting value here. In this series, the under the radar team has been the one to prevail more times than not, and USC still has tons of talent on their squad, more than enough to rise up and beat Stanford here. They are getting their stud left tackle Chad Wheeler back, so that should bode well for them. If they make the change to Sam Darnold at QB, they'll probably be even better off. More than a TD is too much in this one. I expect a good effort from the Trojans here.
 
Some others I liked, but dropped:

ND -7. Just not a big fan of Sparty and feel ND has much more forepower, plus everyone in the world is pointing to the pro MSU trends, so it makes them seem less relevant if that makes sense. In the end, too much success for Dantonio in this role so I eliminated it.

UNLV +11. Lost too much value as the line dropped. I like their offense though.

Vandy +6: Seems a lot to lay for a GT offense that figures to struggle. Vandy was very lucky last week though, so I didn't want to hitch my wagon to that happening again.

Wanted to bet the FSU/Luisville game, and liked UL getting the 3.5, but I can't bet it at a pick.

I think the spot is good for Miami(OH) as their offense has looked pretty good, but WKY has been a juggernaut in these types of games. MOH outgained Iowa in week 1 so +17 at home is attractive, but WKY could put up 60 and it wouldn't surprise me.

Itching to take BYU +3.5 and I would is this Taysom Hill was the 2014 version, but just couldn't pull the trigger.
 
I've been behind all week, and meant to stop in your thread sooner. Nice call on Ohio, and your Marshall writeup took me over the top there unfortunately lol...BOL the rest of the way Brass.
 
Timh said:
God how can Marshall defense be this bad.....
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Thanks Timmy......That Marshall game has to be one of the most stunning outcomes I can ever remember. Obviously the barrage of punt blocks, pick 6's and fumble returns didn't help, but what were the chances Akron gets over 64 TT in that game? .00000001? Akron has given no indication that they were ever capable of an output like that, and marshall has been a pretty solid defensive program to boot. Just crazy.
 
Great read on Ohio - Tenn game.

Couple bad beats too.

Tough loss with New Mex. Rutger's final 2 FGs leading to the 9 point margin were on drives of 10 yards combined. Just a field position thing kept giving Rutgers the ball and a free 3 pts to end the game. In general you had a good read on it, was basically all big plays for Rutgers. Their O is still a mess. They still started slow. And NM is still the better team.

Hard to believe that Michigan did not score an offensive TD or FG the entire 4th qrt. That missed FG late! It is almost like Harbaugh didn't really want to score more. Wonder if it was out of respect for Levitt? Clearly UM could've got more if they wanted.

Looking forward to the week 4 thread.
 
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