Week 3 DFS/Props Discussion

[survive&advance]

I think that’s the fastest I’ve lost a prop bet lol . Lazard goes from zero targets last week to 40+ yards on one drive!

 

[ScopeY]

I think that’s the fastest I’ve lost a prop bet lol . Lazard goes from zero targets last week to 40+ yards on one drive!

Happens man! Was hoping that would happen on thursday

 

[ProV1Colt]

What do we like for MNF props

I am leaning Dallas TE to score a TD anytime Schultz +350
Would like to see his rec over # as well

 

[ProV1Colt]

Schultz O3.5 rec -120 & O26.5yrds

 

[ScopeY]

Davante captain was huge last night...

From a DFS perspective, the best team allocation leverage is 4-2 (4 winning, 2 losing). and the best captain leverages, in order, are WR3/TE1/DST1/WR1.

Dallas has an advantageous sack protection (dak/wrs) and oline push (zeke/poll), and I believe that's prior to phi injury(s). Slay doesn't seem to be shadowing to start this season, so Cooper shouldn't be completely shutdown. However philly mainly gives up production from the slot, hello lamb, who already is shown he can be dominate. (look at deebo week 2). Him and cooper have been out there 97% of the time, and is averaging 12 targets a game (cooper is right there with 11). Sign me up.

I don't want any part of smith vs diggs, I think hurts will have to (and can) extend plays with his legs, or checkdown often. Sanders/Gainwell would be my targets in this offense, with maybe a splash play from watkins or something.

Lamb Receptions O6.5 +100 1-1
Lamb Rec Yds O84.5 -115 2.3-2

 

[dylanphan]

I'm not a big NFL fan, nor a DFS player, but I do love props on primetime games.
I agree with some of what ScopeY posted above and I have played Hurts o7.5 rushing attempts at -110.
However, Dallas's defensive line is extremely depleted. For this reason, I think, a) philly will have a lot of success running the ball, and b) the Cowboy linebackers are going to be called upon to make a lot of plays. I have tackle overs on the Cowboy linebackers.
I also think Davante Smith is in a great spot here. He is their #1 receiver, Hurts was his QB for some time in college, and looks to him a lot. Further more, he is getting a ton of route usage. I think he is a shoe in for 5+ receptions, but the juice right now is pretty high. I played it earlier for slightly better.
Dallas is very tough to get a read on in my opinion as they get both Pollard and Elliot in the game a lot, both receivers get plenty of targets and Cooper does as well. You have to figure Prescott is going to throw it a lot, so I think a better bet is the over on Prescott attempts and completions. I wouldn't target any individual receiver on Dallas to be honest because they spread it around a lot.

:cheers3:

 

[ScopeY]

I'm not a big NFL fan, nor a DFS player, but I do love props on primetime games.
I agree with some of what ScopeY posted above and I have played Hurts o7.5 rushing attempts at -110.
However, Dallas's defensive line is extremely depleted. For this reason, I think, a) philly will have a lot of success running the ball, and b) the Cowboy linebackers are going to be called upon to make a lot of plays. I have tackle overs on the Cowboy linebackers.
I also think Davante Smith is in a great spot here. He is their #1 receiver, Hurts was his QB for some time in college, and looks to him a lot. Further more, he is getting a ton of route usage. I think he is a shoe in for 5+ receptions, but the juice right now is pretty high. I played it earlier for slightly better.
Dallas is very tough to get a read on in my opinion as they get both Pollard and Elliot in the game a lot, both receivers get plenty of targets and Cooper does as well. You have to figure Prescott is going to throw it a lot, so I think a better bet is the over on Prescott attempts and completions. I wouldn't target any individual receiver on Dallas to be honest because they spread it around a lot.

:cheers3:

I'd say it looks like he spreads it because of his volume.
Week 1 cooper and lamb combined combined 32 targets on daks 58 pass attempts.
Week 2 Lamb had 9 targets on days 27 pass attempts last week too (Cooper 5, so still more than half)
I'd have to see where that compares to typical rates for a wr1 and/or 2

Only thing is diggs has been great

He held Evans to 1 catch and Keenan to 3 (I think his 4 completion was not vs diggs). Also had an int in each game. So for smith to hit his target I'd hope for gadget/motion plays and quick throws maybe. But good point about the injuries, just don't forget philly has them too on oline. Anyone can get open if they have enough time