Week 18 Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Jan 6 Sat 2024

04:30 PM
467Pittsburgh Steelers-4
-110		O 37
-110
468Baltimore Ravens+1 Markets+4
-110		U 37
-110
08:15 PM
469Houston Texanspk
-112		O 47
-110
470Indianapolis Colts+1 Marketspk
-108		U 47
-110
Jan 7 Sun 2024

01:00 PM
457Atlanta Falcons+4
-110		O 42½
-110
458New Orleans Saints+1 Markets-4
-110		U 42½
-110
01:00 PM
461Cleveland Browns+4½
-110		O 39½
-110
462Cincinnati Bengals+1 Markets-4½
-110		U 39½
-110
01:00 PM
471New York Jets+2
-105		O 33½
-110
472New England Patriots+1 Markets-2
-115		U 33½
-110
01:00 PM
473Jacksonville Jaguars-3½
-110		O 40
-110
474Tennessee Titans+1 Markets+3½
-110		U 40
-110
01:00 PM
479Tampa Bay Buccaneers-5½
-110		O 37½
-110
480Carolina Panthers+1 Markets+5½
-110		U 37½
-110
01:00 PM
481Kansas City Chiefs+1
+100		O 35½
-110
482Los Angeles Chargers+1 Markets-1
-120		U 35½
-110
04:25 PM
451Dallas Cowboys-13
-112		O 48½
-110
452Washington Commanders+1 Markets+13
-108		U 48½
-110
04:25 PM
453Los Angeles Rams+3
+105		O 42
-110
454San Francisco 49ers+1 Markets-3
-125		U 42
-110
04:25 PM
459Philadelphia Eagles-5½
-110		O 45½
-105
460New York Giants+1 Markets+5½
-110		U 45½
-115
04:25 PM
465Seattle Seahawks-3
-125		O 47½
-110
466Arizona Cardinals+1 Markets+3
+105		U 47½
-110
04:25 PM
475Denver Broncos+2½
-105		O 38
-110
476Las Vegas Raiders+1 Markets-2½
-115		U 38
-110
08:20 PM
455Buffalo Bills-3
-112		O 50½
-110
456Miami Dolphins+1 Markets+3
-108		U 50½
-110
 
Bears +3 shaping up to be a significant play. Their defense been top 5-10 ever since it got healthy.. then added Sweat. Been getting great value for last 5 weeks there.

This team is riding high and theyd love nothing more than to knock packers out. GB is suspect vs the run… we know what the bears do well
 
rambler882 said:
Bears +3 shaping up to be a significant play. Their defense been top 5-10 ever since it got healthy.. then added Sweat. Been getting great value for last 5 weeks there.

This team is riding high and theyd love nothing more than to knock packers out. GB is suspect vs the run… we know what the bears do well
Click to expand...
Agree with this....stylistically they should run on packers. Quality of overall defense between the 2 teams is pretty wide.

Patriots or bears can't decide which as my best bet
 
rambler882 said:
Bears +3 shaping up to be a significant play. Their defense been top 5-10 ever since it got healthy.. then added Sweat. Been getting great value for last 5 weeks there.

This team is riding high and theyd love nothing more than to knock packers out. GB is suspect vs the run… we know what the bears do well
Click to expand...
Agree
 
Ravens always play tough with Huntley, especially as a dog.

Question is....they have a chance to potentially knock Buffalo out if Steelers win. If they beat Pittsburgh and Buffalo loses, Bills could be the 6/7 and if they win round 1 that's Baltimore's 1st round opponent.
 
aplous said:
Ravens always play tough with Huntley, especially as a dog.

Question is....they have a chance to potentially knock Buffalo out if Steelers win. If they beat Pittsburgh and Buffalo loses, Bills could be the 6/7 and if they win round 1 that's Baltimore's 1st round opponent.
Click to expand...
True but I dont “think” players have that fear. Definitely a culture of win, kill, dominate
 
I had it in my head that McVay owned Kyle, but looking at recent matchups that does not appear to be the case. In fact, SF has won 9 out of the last 10 meetings, including 7 times straight up as a dog!
 
The Houston-Colts game is most interesting for me. Interested in thoughts by others re this game. Ryans is coach of the year IMO
 
C-MAN said:
I had it in my head that McVay owned Kyle, but looking at recent matchups that does not appear to be the case. In fact, SF has won 9 out of the last 10 meetings, including 7 times straight up as a dog!
Click to expand...
I have taken SF TT Over 23.5 fwiw. I looked this a.m. and my local has it off the board this a.m. Why?
 
Thank you Rambler....figured as much re SF. I think CJ going to beat Colts. If you think that is wrong feel free to tell me why.
 
bones said:
Thank you Rambler....figured as much re SF. I think CJ going to beat Colts. If you think that is wrong feel free to tell me why.
Click to expand...
If Greenard and/or Collins are back for Texans… very important to stopping Taylor
 
VirginiaCavs said:
I think they also lost some secondary pieces, too? Starting safety hit IR
Click to expand...
Woof. Know Noah Brown went out mid game, not sure how serious. Colts run defense with Grover back + Buckner is strong forcing Texans into a pass game with only potentially Nico Collins... Colts defense is medicore...Texans is about the same frankly.

Game seems like a good under play tho
 
CMC is out this week. Do we think Purdy sits? Feels like a Darnold game but we won't find out until kickoff...
 
Saturday


Steelers (wild card) at Ravens (meaningless), 4:30 p.m.


Texans (win and in) at Colts (win and in), 8:15 p.m.





Sunday


Falcons (division) at Saints (division), 1 p.m.


Browns (meaningless) at Bengals (meaningless), 1 p.m.


Jaguars (win and in) at Titans (meaningless), 1 p.m.


Vikings (wild card) at Lions (meaningless), 1 p.m.


Jets (meaningless) at Patriots (meaningless), 1 p.m.


Buccaneers (win and in) at Panthers (meaningless), 1 p.m.


Bears (meaningless) at Packers (win and in), 4:25 p.m.


Cowboys (division) at Commanders (meaningless), 4:25 p.m.


Broncos (meaningless) at Raiders (meaningless), 4:25 p.m.


Chiefs (meaningless) at Chargers (meaningless), 4:25 p.m.


Rams (meaningless) at 49ers (meaningless), 4:25 p.m.


Eagles (division) at Giants (meaningless), 4:25 p.m.


Seahawks (wild card) at Cardinals (meaningless), 4:25 p.m.


Bills (win and in) at Dolphins (division), 8:20 p.m.
 
rambler882 said:
Bears +3 shaping up to be a significant play. Their defense been top 5-10 ever since it got healthy.. then added Sweat. Been getting great value for last 5 weeks there.

This team is riding high and theyd love nothing more than to knock packers out. GB is suspect vs the run… we know what the bears do well
Click to expand...
Browns fan here. I even said that to my uncle a couple weeks back that we were playing the Bears at the wrong time. Got lucky to win that game, very lucky
 
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NFL Standings - 2023 season - ESPN

Visit ESPN for the complete 2023 NFL season standings. Includes league, conference and division standings for regular season and playoffs.
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Just putting this here. Look at Saints Points differential and situation they are in. Unreal. Yea there is a shutout in there, few weeks allowed no TDs….but damn
 
I’d have to look at the layout of AFC side and Balty will be tough but anyone taking a shot with Cleveland and Flacco experience with the best D?
Futures etc
 
Nothing more fitting than to see the Bills with a chance to win the division as well as a chance to miss the playoffs entirely. So Billsy

Bills two straight close games to subpar teams, Miami off getting blown out. Too many injuries on the Miami side for me to think they can beat Buffalo.

Allen neck stinger the biggest ? for me on the Bill's side. Not even really concerned but there is a chance he's more injured than they are letting on.

D is getting better every week & now totally healthy. Main concern for me is that I think Hyde/Poyer tandem is NOT what it used to be. Hyde is washed but is getting by on football IQ. Zappe td run he couldn't even get to the play in time when there is no doubt Rapp would have been able to. Many would disagree because Rapp has been burned but I wouldn't be opposed to him getting the start over Hyde right now. D-line is the strength and Oliver once again had an amazing game. Von scratched is the right move as everyone else playing amazing. LBs have played much better down the stretch. Tua will be in trouble. To me Mostert in or out doesn't mean much, Bills gonna have to stop whoever is running the ball. Waddle's status is huge, without him I don't think the Fins can match up firepower wise. I'll be the first to admit I didn't think Rasul was going to have the impact he has. Without him we miss the playoffs entirely. Elam is a bust but Benford is turning into a ball hawk.. I think the Bills can continue to force turnovers with the pressure they are applying on the d line.

Bill's offensive woes on the road were on full display last week. Allen couldn't hit anything and missed 2 td passes by a lot. However, this miami D just lost Chubb & will be without Howard. Bills might come out run heavy to start I think they come with a physical game early. They should be able to run Cook/TY & when the run game is going, they're not going to be stopped. I think we see Eli Apple get abused this week. Every D in the league knows you have to shut down Diggs to have a shot vs Buffalo but who does it this week? Nobody can convince me Ramsey is going to 1 on 1. He looked amazing coming back but last 2 games vs real wrs not so much. Diggs will have to get doubled. Shakir yds over will be a definite play as he catches everything. Kincaid off a huge game who covers him? I don't see a LB on the roster that can hang so it may be a matchup they look to exploit. Offense simply too talented to have another bad primetime showing only a matter of time before they get right.


Allen off a bad game facing a team he owns for the division. I'm going with my guyyyyyy

Bills-3

Bills tt over (will prob play a juiced 26 rather than 26.5 though I think they score 30+)

Shakir yds over. TD prob in +220 range only a matte of time but more of a longshot

Cook yds over & TD

Diggs yds over if it's set at 69 again I'm biting.

Kincaid TD might be worth a look.
 
Wildcard lookahead

Browns are locked in at #5 and I believe the AFC South winner is locked in at #4. Either Jax, Hou or Indy at #4. Smells like the first game on wildcard weekend.

Chiefs are locked in at #3, #6 is up in the air. If Buffalo wins then Miami is #6 and Tyreek would be heading to Arrowhead. That's Sunday night material all the way. If Miami wins the Houston/Indy winner would be #6 assuming the Jags win the division. Not as attractive, more likely a Sunday afternoon tilt. If the Jags lose then #6 could either be Buffalo or Pittsburgh, which again puts it in play for Sunday night.

Winner of Buffalo/Miami gets the #2 seed. If it's Buffalo then odds are high that the Colts/Titan winner will be #7. If it's Miami then it could be a rematch with Buffalo the next weekend or Pittsburgh could sneak in. Attractive games from an audience standpoint, Miam-Buffalo could go on Monday night, Miami-Pittsburgh could work as a Saturday night tilt.

The NFC 4/5 matchup has been the Monday night game the last 2 years. I'm assuming Tampa and Philly at this point as Tampa and Dallas are heavy favorites. That has enough cache to maybe see Monday night yet again, although Miami-Buffalo or Dallas-Green Bay would be tough competition.

The Cowboys would be hard pressed to not finish #2 this week, which should give them either Green Bay, Seattle or New Orleans. If it's the Packers the name value alone says prime time matchup.

Lions would be #3 and Rams are locked in at #6, good enough matchup for prime time but maybe not Sunday/Monday.

If the week 18 favorites hold serve and the schedule were up to me:
Browns at Jags - early Saturday
Rams at Lions - Saturday night
Texans/Colts at Bills - early Sunday
Eagles at Bucs - afternoon Sunday
Packers at Cowboys - Sunday night
Fins at Chiefs - Monday night
 
Gandolf said:
Wildcard lookahead

Browns are locked in at #5 and I believe the AFC South winner is locked in at #4. Either Jax, Hou or Indy at #4. Smells like the first game on wildcard weekend.

Chiefs are locked in at #3, #6 is up in the air. If Buffalo wins then Miami is #6 and Tyreek would be heading to Arrowhead. That's Sunday night material all the way. If Miami wins the Houston/Indy winner would be #6 assuming the Jags win the division. Not as attractive, more likely a Sunday afternoon tilt. If the Jags lose then #6 could either be Buffalo or Pittsburgh, which again puts it in play for Sunday night.

Winner of Buffalo/Miami gets the #2 seed. If it's Buffalo then odds are high that the Colts/Titan winner will be #7. If it's Miami then it could be a rematch with Buffalo the next weekend or Pittsburgh could sneak in. Attractive games from an audience standpoint, Miam-Buffalo could go on Monday night, Miami-Pittsburgh could work as a Saturday night tilt.

The NFC 4/5 matchup has been the Monday night game the last 2 years. I'm assuming Tampa and Philly at this point as Tampa and Dallas are heavy favorites. That has enough cache to maybe see Monday night yet again, although Miami-Buffalo or Dallas-Green Bay would be tough competition.

The Cowboys would be hard pressed to not finish #2 this week, which should give them either Green Bay, Seattle or New Orleans. If it's the Packers the name value alone says prime time matchup.

Lions would be #3 and Rams are locked in at #6, good enough matchup for prime time but maybe not Sunday/Monday.

If the week 18 favorites hold serve and the schedule were up to me:
Browns at Jags - early Saturday
Rams at Lions - Saturday night
Texans/Colts at Bills - early Sunday
Eagles at Bucs - afternoon Sunday
Packers at Cowboys - Sunday night
Fins at Chiefs - Monday night
Click to expand...

If the Packers beat the Bears and the Rams lose to the 49ers, Packers are #6, Rams are #7.
 
All things being equal I believe the Rams would prefer the #6 over the #7 but as you stated not at the expense of health. It seems like the 49ers are playing most of their starters for at least a quarter to keep them from the dreaded three week layoff. I thought 49ers -2.5 was a steal early, but with both teams eventually resting it will be closer to a pre-season game from the second half on. I can see McVay motivated to get a win with back-ups and head to Detroit.

I don't think either match-up is particularly good for the Rams.
 
That’s a pretty strong line for Hou on the road. Looking back at first matchup, Richardson got injured early in the game so Hou was not prepped for Minshew. Hou failed miserably in the red zone, while Indy was 4-4 in red zone. Stroud had a good game and Hou dominated TOP. Think Hou gets this one.
 
Minny looks like toast to me. Det has depth at QB even if DC decides to pull starters. Det will want to finish season with a win at home and still has outside shot at improving playoff seeding. This one almost looks too easy, but I’ll bite.
 
Cincy line looks high to me. Clev is 8-2 SU L10 meetings. Cincy has nothing to play for and can’t see them being too motivated to finish off a disappointing season. I’ll take the points as Clev looks to continue momentum into the playoffs.
 
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