Week 16 DFS/Props Discussion

[ScopeY]

Should be a busy weekend, on top of the holidays, so I'll try to get quick summaries down ASAP.

Thursday.

SFO/TEN

SFO DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, meh vs P D.
TEN DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, bad vs RB D.
Pace of play is 14th (all out of 16 now).
Tanny has the 2nd worst ASR matchup of the week, Garop has the 5th worst.
Foreman? has the 8th worst ALY matchup.

 

[ScopeY]

Should be a busy weekend, on top of the holidays, so I'll try to get quick summaries down ASAP.

Thursday.

SFO/TEN

SFO DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, meh vs P D.
TEN DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, bad vs RB D.
Pace of play is 14th (all out of 16 now).
Tanny has the 2nd worst ASR matchup of the week, Garop has the 5th worst.
Foreman? has the 8th worst ALY matchup.

Do Note - SFO - 1st week w/o S (Hufanga), 2nd week w/o CB (Moseley), and possible 2nd week w/o LB (Al-Shaiar).
- TEN - 1st week w/o CB (Molden), 4th week w/o DT (Murchison), CB (Jackson). On OLine, 2nd week w/o Saffold, and 1st week with Lewan... these are the 2 highest graded lineman on the team. Uhoh.

The Titans have Oline issues, and already had a bad ALY matchup..... to add, they're in a true 3 back committee.... Foreman/Hillard/McNichols - 39%/36%/29% snap sahre last week (last week all were between 30-40%), They led/tied until halfway through 3rd and all 3 backs had 3+ targets, but imo, they play from behind throughout, and I'd lean through mcnichols if I had to play 1 in the showdown. Avoiding the other 2 at all costs.

Julio played just 34% of snaps before getting hurt, and still had 6 targets (in a negative script for him kind of).... If AJ comes back, I think he can be played with some confidence. Westbrook>Hollister next 2.

Swaim gets the most playing time (74>34>21%, Swaim/Pruitt/Firkser), but the targerts were 4/5/3 respectively.... Idk, I think if you go those route, be contrarian and take the pruitts/firksers over swaim.... would be more leverage, and can easily be the TD scorer.

Wilson is the best bet this week..... even if sermon can be activated. He played 88% of snaps (Juszcyk was out there are lot with him too, as we was at 55%), but I just favor their script, plus they're a run first team.

Kittle/Aiyuk --------- Deebo --- Jennings..... don't play sherfield. I wouldn't play jennings either. but that's my order there too.

 

[ScopeY]

Taking

SFO -3.5 -105

McNichols Rec Yds O10.5 -115
A.J. Brown Rec Yds O4.5 -130

 

[ScopeY]

AJ Brown is receptions fyi

 

[2daBank]

targeting couple te’s on Xmas.

Love everything ertz,
Over 4.5 catches +110
Over 44.5 yards -110
Anytime td +230

Like yards over receptions but the +110 makes me want to take smidge of that also.

I lean hooper over Njoku. So hooper over 25.5 yards.

Chubb anytime td -105, teams score tds on pack when they get into the red zone, Chubb once again the most likely candidate imo. I don’t think it a bad idea to take flyers on hooper and/or Njoku for a anytime td at +360 and +400 respectively, think there a pretty good chance one of them find the endzone.

Kyler over 1.5 passing tds -135 has some value if you think cards make this a game, take away the tampa game and colts have only allowed 3 rushing tds all year! If zona scoring it most likely have to be on the arm of Murray.

That pretty much what I see for Xmas. There not a ton of receiving props for packers yet so maybe be something else. Id think one of Jones or Dillon will go over their rush total in the 40s but I dunno which? Of course ya can prob safely take Taylor to score but he -215! Maybe 2 tds?

Merry Xmas everyone.

 

[ScopeY]

CLV/GBP

CLV DVOA Matchup great vs RB D, good vs P D.
GBP DVOA Matchup good vs P D, meh RB D.
Pace of play is 16th.
Chubb is 3rd best ALY matchup.

IND/ARI

IND DVOA Matchup bad vs P/RB D.
ARI DVOA Matchup is meh vs P D, bad vs RB D.
Pace of play is 13th.
Murray has the 10th worst ASR matchup.
Taylor has the 6th best ALY matchup. Conner? has the T-9th worst ALY matchup.

 

[ScopeY]

Merry Christmas 2dabank, and to eveeryone else.

for CLV/GBP

Do Note - CLV - On D, they'll be 1st week w/o DE (McKinley), S (Johnson III), DT (Elliott). 2nd week w/o DT (McDowell), DE (Clowney), CB (Hill). 3rd week w/o S (Harrison Jr.), LB (Wilson), CB (Newsome). DE (Garrett) & DE (Jackson) are Q, should be monitored. On OL Treller/Wills are out. --- The tradional kicker is out.
- GBP - On D, 1st week w/o LB (Summers), On OL, 2nd week w/o Turner.

Fantasy relevant players;
No Hunt still, and looks like Keenum is available.
No MVS.

For DFS purposes --- Last time Keenum started was Week 7 game vs Denver, in which they lead 3 min and didnt look back. He still looked to his top two WRs 14 times (6/8), nobody else had more than 3 --- I also believe they won't be playing with a lead from start to finish either. I expect Landry/People-Jones to be peppered the most. ----- I will mention, peoples-jones had 27% of tartgets/55% of air yards last week (this was w/o landry --- but we know landry will be short throws, peopels longer).... take higgins if you want, but no ty.

Chubb (playing 2/3rds of snaps each of last 2 weeks --- his most all season), is probably my main priority for the 2 game slate... hopefully keenum back there helps open him up a bit more than last week. You can play Dernest at your own risk, but he's capped at 33% of snaps, where they most likely won't be playing with a lead, pass.

As much as the GBP RB rotation scared me, it may have shown signs last week to reverting back to the norm, it was the first week of >60% of snaps for jones and <40% of snaps for dillon since Week 9. Both still managed to score a TD, but let others take the lower upside in Dillon.... I think I'm prepared to play jones here with confidence, and I like that he's more utilized out of the backfield too (for ppr!).

Adams is always a threat, and he's averaging about 10 targets a game last 3., play him if you can. Lazard is the option most will be backing, and it's hard not to like it. He's had a consistent 6~ targets/game and 11 aDOT past 3, and that's with MVS being the main deep threat. I have no problem playing him, but for big tourneys, dont forget about St.Brown, I don't think he will be as consistent, as this will be his first game as the actual WR3... as there is finally no Cobb OR MVS.

for IND/ARI

Do Note - IND - On D, 1st week w/o CB (Ya-Sin), DE (Turay), S (Sendejo), 3rd week w/o DT (Woods), On OL, no Nelson (the best - OUCH), Glowinski, and 3rd week without Kelly. That's now 3 of their perennial starters..... 2 of my 4 semis with Taylor are NOT happy....
- ARI - On D, 1st week w/o DE (Phillips), 2nd week w/o CB (Alford). On OL, 2nd week w/o Hudson (their best), 1st week w/o Garcia

Fantasy relevant players;
No Campbell
Moore/Connor are Q.

Taylor played 98% of snaps last week, he's never been over 83% all year until then. Hines had some overlap in personnel where they both were out there, unfortunately he was a dismal 19% still.... having said that, they went into half with a 3 possession lead, and had a 2 possession lead until 2.21 to go... I actually do think they can fall into a script of playing from behind here, and if so, you may see hines in the 37%~ range, which is better than the dillons/dernests IMO, and would be my lower owned pivot if I went there. I don't think taylor is a must start (gulp).

I'd rather not touch the colts TE's, as they're in a true split (slight lean to Doyle in terms of snaps, but i'd rather play allie-cox), but either can be the TD scorer. I do think Pittman/Pascal can be considered.

Ertz saw a season high of 89% of snaps last week, colts are the worst team of the 4 in defending the TE position, there's no 2 TE splits (like IND/CLV/GBP), and less mouths to feed with injuries than ever before (past 2 weeks really).... he's the locked play that you don't pivot from.

With no hopkins and moore getting hurt last week (and possibly out this week), Kirk was finally able to step back into the limelight, and play 96% of snaps, his highest since week 9 (where hopkins/green were out)..... he turned it into a 12 target performance and an 8.7 aDOT... not bad. I don't think we should just X out aj green, as he is still relevant, and had 8 targets last week too. But Ertz >>> Kirk >>>>>> Green are my priority here.

IF conner is out... edmonds should be fired up with confidence, otherwise I don't really trust the backfield for my money... neither played more than 45% of snaps last week.... and whats the best you thnik you'd get, 55% for the leader, and which one will that be? Let others throw the darts.

 

[ScopeY]

I see baker is back too, woops....

 

[B.A.R.]

Merry Christmas Scope

 

[2daBank]

I heard on a pod with someone I respect he had been hearing there a good chance Hines sees more snaps today, I dunno if it will pan out that way but that guy seems pretty plugged in w good sources so Hines might be a sneaky good cheap flex play.

 

[2daBank]

I see baker is back too, woops....

Hoping that means Hooper gets really involved. 26 yards doesn’t seem like that big a ask and figure game script is prob gonna lead to them having to throw at some point.

 

[ScopeY]

Hoping that means Hooper gets really involved. 26 yards doesn’t seem like that big a ask and figure game script is prob gonna lead to them having to throw at some point.

Just sucks because of the committee, and naturally a run first team... even bryant gets sufficient playing time as the TE3.

It's Ertz and then everyone else, his floor may be higher than their ceilings. If you want to punt it, or go 2 TE, I think I'd rather Deguara on GBP.

 

[ScopeY]

I heard on a pod with someone I respect he had been hearing there a good chance Hines sees more snaps today, I dunno if it will pan out that way but that guy seems pretty plugged in w good sources so Hines might be a sneaky good cheap flex play.

Not hard to beat last weeks... but ya I think it goes up a bit.... I did a 5 entry max, and have all Chubb/Jones + Ertz. my flex has been 1 hines/1 taylor/1 edmonds/1deguara, then a wr

 

[2daBank]

Just sucks because of the committee, and naturally a run first team... even bryant gets sufficient playing time as the TE3.

It's Ertz and then everyone else, his floor may be higher than their ceilings. If you want to punt it, or go 2 TE, I think I'd rather Deguara on GBP.

Yea my biggest worry is def Njoku, pretty confident one of browns te’s has a good day. I’m loaded up on ertz, I pretty much parlayed every prop in the browns game into his over 44.5 yards, then played catches and to score a td straight and jumping off a few parlays into 2marro. Ertz is def my key to this day, pretty confident in him considering not only Murray looks his way but Indy defense is def softest against the middle the field/te’s imo.

 

[ScopeY]

Yea my biggest worry is def Njoku, pretty confident one of browns te’s has a good day. I’m loaded up on ertz, I pretty much parlayed every prop in the browns game into his over 44.5 yards, then played catches and to score a td straight and jumping off a few parlays into 2marro. Ertz is def my key to this day, pretty confident in him considering not only Murray looks his way but Indy defense is def softest against the middle the field/te’s imo.

30th in FPoints given up to TE's! Let's get it

 

[2daBank]

Chubb td out the way! Love when I get those on the 1st drive and don’t have to sweat late!! Lol

 

[ScopeY]

Chubb td out the way! Love when I get those on the 1st drive and don’t have to sweat late!! Lol

only 40% owned in a 2 game slate.... absurd.

 

[2daBank]

only 40% owned in a 2 game slate.... absurd.

That crazy. Who else would you put at rb? I suppose prob can’t afford Chubb and Taylor and I’m sure Taylor was over 80%. I didn’t play any dfs today, just props. Got the hooper over! Now just need Ertz to show out!!!

 

[ScopeY]

That crazy. Who else would you put at rb? I suppose prob can’t afford Chubb and Taylor and I’m sure Taylor was over 80%. I didn’t play any dfs today, just props. Got the hooper over! Now just need Ertz to show out!!!

I guess people tried to jam in taylor/adams..... which will be hard to be better than chubb/adams

 

[ScopeY]

Needed higgins over peoples... ugh... give me like 2 catches here, thanks.

 

[2daBank]

Can’t believe I got exactly 26 yards out of hooper, lol, I’ll take it!! Pays the same as if he had 80!!

 

[2daBank]

Adams 2td prop woulda been nice, it so hard to trust wrs to score But adams has done so 4 of last 5 and scored 2x in 3 of those 5. Even scored last week when ravens were hell bent on taking him out the game!

 

[2daBank]

ertz was way tougher than it had to be and we didnt get the td but still really good day!

 

[2daBank]

some tasty numbers for 2marro, gonna be a fairly big card as i try to parlay early success to more monies!! lol

anytime td scorers:

ron jones -115
justin jackson -105
robinson -120
kupp -165 (juicy i know, parlay guy)
willaims/gordon donks split at +165 and +150, just too tough to guess which scores, both might. think i lean more to the rookie and do like his over yards more.

thinking bout obj and van jeff at +180

qbs:

stafford ov 283.5
allen ov 246,5 and ov1.5 td
burrow ov 1.5 td
cousins ov 268.5 and 1.5 td

rush yards:


sanders ov57.5
williams ov57.5

rec yards:

pitts ov47.5
fant ov39.5
Lamb ov64.5

and there still a bunch of guys who not posted on DK yet so i might still have more!!

 

[ScopeY]

ertz was way tougher than it had to be and we didnt get the td but still really good day!

Nailed Chubb/Jones + Edmonds (if no conner), as well as Ertz.... anybody DFS'ing in this thread should have cashed

 

[ScopeY]

Do I start getting ahead of the game now, or the morning...ugh

 

[2daBank]

what bout a sanders/barkley/hurts 75 rush yards each at +2500?!! i dont think that as unlikely as odds suggest honestly.

 

[2daBank]

Do I start getting ahead of the game now, or the morning...ugh

i started, im always hyped up after good day to knock out some more!!

 

[ScopeY]

what bout a sanders/barkley/hurts 75 rush yards each at +2500?!! i dont think that as unlikely as odds suggest honestly.

I didn't check post last week snaps (although my comments last week played out)... but barkley is in a true 5050 with booker, and they're starting to look 1 in the same. So idk...

 

[2daBank]

I didn't check post last week snaps (although my comments last week played out)... but barkley is in a true 5050 with booker, and they're starting to look 1 in the same. So idk...

ah,, handt been following gmen that closely, certainly not good for that, seemed like a pretty attainable one at the price, barkley was def my biggest concern, i love sanders over his 57.5 number, im 50/50 on hurts but figured in that context was more likely than odds suggest, but if barkley splitting it be pretty tough for him to hit that, i aint seen him bust a long one all year.

 

[2daBank]

that a big reason i started now, glad you still up to talk bout this stuff, helps me a ton!!

 

[ScopeY]

that a big reason i started now, glad you still up to talk bout this stuff, helps me a ton!!

Top is bookers last 2 games snaps, bottom is barkley.... so maybe separating again... but I'd like to see it before I invest my money. 60/40 still isn't the greatest.

 

[2daBank]

View attachment 60621

Top is bookers last 2 games snaps, bottom is barkley.... so maybe separating again... but I'd like to see it before I invest my money. 60/40 still isn't the greatest.

obviously wouldnt be a lot of money on one those +2500 type long shots, i was thinking 20 bucks, but yea im certainly not trying to just give anything to them!! i saw barkley has had dd carries last 4-5 games and usually hitting 15ish of late, that might not be enough for him to hit 75 yards these days tho, 64 has been his highest total in that span after all, he just isnt the same guy anymore.

 

[ScopeY]

obviously wouldnt be a lot of money on one those +2500 type long shots, i was thinking 20 bucks, but yea im certainly not trying to just give anything to them!! i saw barkley has had dd carries last 4-5 games and usually hitting 15ish of late, that might not be enough for him to hit 75 yards these days tho, 64 has been his highest total in that span after all, he just isnt the same guy anymore.

He's T-9th worst ALY push.... Sanders is #1 best!

 

[2daBank]

He's T-9th worst ALY push.... Sanders is #1 best!

sanders over 57.5 rush is easily my fav non td prop of the day.,

 

[2daBank]

imo only way sanders doesnt smash that number is if coach goes all crazy on me and stops giving him carries again, maybe better to look at something like sanders 125 rush and a td at +1800, then it just depends on if he gets enough work imo

 

[ScopeY]

imo only way sanders doesnt smash that number is if coach goes all crazy on me and stops giving him carries again, maybe better to look at something like sanders 125 rush and a td at +1800, then it just depends on if he gets enough work imo

You're so right

 

[2daBank]

always gotta worry bout hurts vulturing the rush tds tho.

 

[ScopeY]

imo only way sanders doesnt smash that number is if coach goes all crazy on me and stops giving him carries again, maybe better to look at something like sanders 125 rush and a td at +1800, then it just depends on if he gets enough work imo

he has to have the most consecutive carries without scoring a TD

 

[2daBank]

he has to have the most consecutive carries without scoring a TD

they bound to throw any back in down at goal line, then hurts could just pull and keep for himself as he likes to do.

 

[2daBank]

what your numbers say for josh allen vs pats? despite my love of pats this year (and all the good money we got on their backs in 1st meeting) i really like allen passing yardage total, it so low for him.

 

[ScopeY]

what your numbers say for josh allen vs pats? despite my love of pats this year (and all the good money we got on their backs in 1st meeting) i really like allen passing yardage total, it so low for him.

Bad pass DVOA matchup, pace of play is 11th, but not in the bottom 10 worst ASR's (nor top 10). TT at 21 is middle of the pack..... Having said all that, he had 311 air yards on 30 attempts in the windiest of games, in which it was within 1 possession throughout...... I think he does much better than we saw. Still haven't checked injuries

 

[2daBank]

Bad pass DVOA matchup, pace of play is 11th, but not in the bottom 10 worst ASR's (nor top 10). TT at 21 is middle of the pack..... Having said all that, he had 311 air yards on 30 attempts in the windiest of games, in which it was within 1 possession throughout...... I think he does much better than we saw. Still haven't checked injuries

His number only 240s, that game will have to play way differently than I see it for him to not hit that. Kinda expect this to be played with both teams in 20s, lean over as well but little scary with these defensive coaches.

 

[2daBank]

Even considering I think bills might have realized they have to give one their backs some Carries, actually think that will help Allen be much more efficient.

 

[2daBank]

Should we worry at all that sanders played Tuesday and last 2 weeks been his highest carry totals of season? You would think he still fresh considering how little they used him early and then missing some games.

 

[2daBank]

So I backed off burrow yards, that why I only posted over 1.5 pass tds for him last night, just not sure what this game script gonna look like with ravens down to 3rd string qb and lots of other issues? His yardage total fell from 269.5 last night all way down to 251.5 for I imagine the same concern I just brought up. I have no doubt he could smash this number vs ravens weakened secondary that not even a strength when they healthy anymore, problem is I just don’t know if he will be throwing enough or if bungals get out to a lead and try to milk clock? I don’t think Taylor a very good coach so he might do something stupid like that which keeps ravens in a lower scoring divisional slugfest.

The smart thing would be for bungals to come out guns blazing and light up ravens overmatched secondary, I don’t trust this coach to do the smart thing tho. Imo bungals talent is winning despite Taylor not because of him, all the coach of year talk for him was redic same as with kingsbury, 2 coaches who I think are actually holding back very good rosters yet getting credit cause these teams are winning!!

 

[2daBank]

Sanders and Williams yardage totals been getting bet up this morning, I would still play both at anything less than 70 most likely. Either could easily go for 100 but they both in situations where they most likely sharing carry’s.

 

[survive&advance]

Some props I took that are still available are rashad penny over 44.5 rush yards, pitts over 46.5, cousins over 22.5 completions

 

[ScopeY]

Like always. let me know mistakes/injury updates. Pace of play is out of all 16 games, totals/Ttotals are out of the 13 remaining games.

1 PMs

JAC/NYJ

JAC DVOA Matchup is great vs P/RB D.
NYJ DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, meh vs RB D.
Pace of play is 4th. O/U is 9th (/13).
Lawrence has the 8th best ASR matchup.
JRob has the T-5th best ALY matchup, 4th of main slate.

- JAC - On D, 1st week w/o S (Jenkins), LB (Allen), DE (McCray). On OL, Bartch is out, and Linder is Q (linder being more important).
- NYJ - On D, 1st week w/o S (Neasman), CB (Carter II), S (Davis), DT (Marshall), S (Riley), 2nd week w/o DT (Fatukasi), DE (Franklin-Myers). 4 Q's, Mosley/Rankins/Hall/Williams. On OL, no Vera-Tucker, no Tardiff, Fant is Q.

DFS/Prop notables
No Shenault, no Arnold, Hyde.
No Moore, probably no Crowder, no Griffin.

Last week, with no moore, Crowder and Griffin account for almost 50% of the targets.... Carter came back with an immediate 54% of snaps... I could see that getting closer to 2/3rds. You can consider a cheap Cole, and I see everyone rushing to pikc up berrios, but mims played more last week, and was targetted more... i'd rather have him if I go that route.

I guess with no Griffin, Kroft can be considered as a punt.

JRob played 84% of snaps, his highest since Week 4 and 6.... Cya Urban.... You can play him with confidence.

Another week, another message of me saying how lawrence has a great matchup, and will probably fail..... again..... I lowkey have interest for once in a long time though. He's dirt cheap, and all the stars are aligned, The pace is great, the ASR matchup is great, the DVOA matchup is great.... he can be paired with a cheap Jones, or cheaper Treadwell. ---- Shenaults 20% target share will be going to these 2 + JRob/Oshaugnessy.

DET/ATL

DET DVOA Matchup is great vs P/RB D.
ATL DVOA Matchup is great vs P/RB D.
Pace of play is T-8th. O/U is 7th (/13).
Goff has the T-1st best ASR matchup. Ryan has the T-1st best ASR Matchup.

Need to speed things up as I'm behind.

- DET - On D 1st week w/o LB (Anzalone), LB (Woods), CB (Oruwariye), some Q's too. On OL, Nelson is out.
- ATL - a LB/DT that haven't played in weeks, and didn't play much in general.

DFS/Prop notables
No Goff/Benson/Cephus/Hock, Raymond/Reynolds/Swift all Q.
No Sharpe

We have to like some people from this game... game or team stacks can be considered, but I understand the mentality of not putting your eggs in these baskets... atleast consider 1-offs.

I don't trust the backfield for DET with jamal and now reynolds, AND maybe swift. I know no Goff, but I think DET plays from behind, so I will have me some St. Brown, or maybeeee Reynolds. They combined for 66%~ of the targets last week. I do assume Jamal or maybe Swift would take some of that, but still happy to click a cheap option here.

I know we want to play patterson with some confidence, and he is definitely the more electric player in the backfield, but Davis can vulture, and I feel like he's capped at 60% of snaps (or as low as 45%~.... and I think i'd rather let others chase that spot in this matchup, while I back the Gage/Pitts of the world, both who have played >80% of snaps (even with hurst returning).

BAL/CIN

BAL DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, meh vs RB D.
CIN DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, bad vs RB D.
Pace of play is 15th (the next lowest in the main slate is 12th). O/U is T-9th.
Johnson? has the 4th worst ASR Matchup. Burrow has the 10th worst ASR Matchup.
Freeman has the 2nd worst ALY Matchup. Mixon has the 7th worst ALY Matchup.

- BAL - On D, 3rd week w/o CB (Smith), 2nd week w/o CB (Westry), 1st week w/o LB (Houston), LB (Board), S (Stone), LB (Welch), DT (Madubuike). On OL, powers is out, but Mekari should be returning (that's a plus)
- CIN - On D, 1st week w/o DE (Ray), DT (Reader), DE (Kareem), LB (Bachie), 3rd week w/o LB (Wilson).

DFS/Prop notables
No Lamar/Huntley, no Duvernay (boost to an already high snap count for bateman)

Not touching this game... don't want baltys offense, especially with an inflated andrews.
I would consider a oneoff of chase or higgins.

LAR/MIN

LAR DVOA Matchup is good vs P/RB D.
MIN DVOA Matchup is bad vs P/RB D.
Pace of play is 1st. O/U is 1st.
Cousins has the T-5th best ASR matchup.
Henderson? has 2nd best ALY matchup. Cook has T-10th worst ALY matchup.

- LAR - On OL, no Whitworth (huge), 2nd week no Noteboom.
- MIN - On OL, no cole (starter last 7 weeks)

DFS/Prop notables
No Cook, Thielen Q.

Playing henderson over michel cost me one of my fantasy leagues... they finished with a 70-30 split (michel/Hender).... now with his return from injury another week away, idk if that moves closer to 50-50 or not... but I'm concerned either way, and don't want to take a shot on either... whitworth being out is a huge hit too.

L3, Kupp is averaging 13~ Targets, and 116 air yards, accounting for over 40% of target share, and air yards share..... haven't made lineups yet, but with what looks like salary relief all over, he's almost a set it and forget it play.... he is playing for the team thats in a game with the fastest pace, and highest ov/un, and Ttotal.... You can also play jefferson (rather jefferson) or obj if you want. Higbee does return and was almost an everydown TE... not sure if he keeps that pace his first week back, but a thought.

Mattison may be to expensive for me... but he will be doing it all, and won't fault anyone for playing him.

What I said about Kupp, is what I'll say about Jefferson, only ding, is it's verse a tougher defense/maybe ramsey shadows him.. but I think you can be confident if you play him.

BUF/NEP

BUF DVOA Matchup is bad vs P/RB D.
NEP DVOA Matchup is meh vs RB D, bad vs P D.
Pace of play is 11th. O/U is 5th.
Mac has the 7th best ASR matchup.
Singletary? has the 9th best ALY matchup. Harris? has the 6th worst ALY matchup.

- BUF - On D, 1st week w/o DT (lotulelei), 2nd week w/o DE (Epenesa). On OL, no ford.
- NEP - On D, 1st week w/o DE (Wise Jr.).

DFS/Prop notables
No Beasley/Davis.
No Stevenson, Agholor, Harry is Q.

No Stevenson means the Harris show. My only concern is my gamescript/mentality is that the Pats will be playing from behind.... when thats the case, harris really does get scripted out. The other plus to that, is we know Bolden will already be getting opps. with harris being dinged up and no stevenson... his role can expand further if playing catchup.... I don't hate the idea of playing him but don't go overboard. Meyers would be my other target. I will also note, that Henry seems to be taking the reigns? of the position, seeing a high of 81% of snaps last week.

I know its a tough matchup, and sanders can be considered, I prefer knox.... but I think Diggs gets peppered often... and I'll try to have a smidge of him, and maybe a lineup or 2 with allen to diggs, as I think it'll be low owned in this matchup. Not touching the backfield, I think, but its worth noting that 2 weeks ago singletary FINALLY captured the backfield with 82% of snaps, and followed it up with another season high of 93% of snaps last week..... is this finally the damn time since 2 years ago? (I think 2).

NYG/PHI

NYG DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, meh vs RB D.
PHI DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, meh vs P D.
Pace of play is 3rd. O/U is 11th (/13, what).
Glennon? has the T-5th best ASR matchup.
Sanders? has the best ALY matchup. Barkley? has the T-9th worst ALY matchup.

- NYG - On D, still no CB (Jackson), 1st week w/o CB (Crossen), DT (Shelton) . On OL, no Solder (2nd best Olineman on team).
- PHI - On D, 1st week w/o DE (Kerrigan), LB (Bradley).

DFS/Prop notables
No Jones, Shep/Johnson, Toney is Q.

Sanders/Howard played 5050. Howard was the closer. Sanders was the more explosive back of course, and is in a prime matchup. He can definitely be considered.
Goedert and Smith have really healthy aDOTs last 3 weeks, and both see the field often. You could pivot and do a hurts stack with one of these 2.
I don't know what to do with the Giants... I'll never be shocked to see booker do better than barkley... botrh can be ppr magnets too, which is a plus, but I don't trust either until the other isn't there. We don't want Engram, and the WR corp is always hurt. We know theres no shep though... Golladay has seen 90% of snaps last 2 weeks and will go unnoticed. Toney can be considered. I'd say Slayton is the WR3 (unless no Toney). but one of them can be considered to make a team stack become a game one... the Pace is good here, and the matchup isn't bad for glennon.

TBB/CAR

TBB DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, bad vs P D.
CAR DVOA Matchup is meh vs RB D, bad vs P D.
Pace of play is 5th. O/U is 6th.
Cam has the 3rd worst ASR Matchup.
Rojo has the 8th best ALY matchup. Chubba has the 5th worst ALY matchup.

- TBB - On D, 1st week w/o LB (Pierre-Paul), DT (Nunez-Roches), LB (David), DE (O'Connor), 2nd week w/o S (Winfield Jr.). Both CBs Dean/Sherman Q.
- CAR - On D, 1st week w/o S (Franklin), CB (Melvin), , 2nd week w/o CB (Bouye). On OL, no Elfein, and 2nd week no Daley.

DFS/Prop notables
No Evans/Godwin/Darden/Perriman, No Fournette/Bernard.
No CMC, Moore is Q.

AB, then johnson/miller. Gronk..... take your pick... I think i'll avoid Gronk, as that should be the main focus. But don't mind one-offing any of these guys. Who I really want is RoJo.... if KeShawn Vaugn steals the show..... fuck me.... but I'll take the concentration RoJo should have today.

I don't really want any CAR. but maybe one-offing moore/anderson can be a leverage play that nobody will be taking.. the pace is good, and I expect them to be playing from behind. Would consider TBB defense, but there's some notable players missing.

LAC/HOU

LAC DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, meh vs P D.
HOU DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, meh vs P D.
Pace of play is 6th. O/U is 3rd.
Mills? has the T-8th worst ASR Matchup. Herbert has the T-1st best.
Jackson? has the 4th best ALY Matchup.

- LAC - There missing about 7 defensive players. OL, no Linsey, who's their best rated Olineman.
- HOU - There missing like 10 defensive players, and will be without 2 OL starters (Britt/Howard).

DFS/Prop notables
No Cooks.
No Guyton/Williams, Parham, Ekeler.

I like LAC Defense, as I think they'll be playing with a lead, which is what they feast on. I want 0 HOU players.
Don't chase Cook with no PArham again... he's still capped at 55% of snaps. Keenan allen can be considered, but I'll let others chase, and won't be going overboard, if he doesn't get it early, I'm afraid he won't at all (Despite a great matchup/opp. I will be all and around Jackson, don't you dare steal from me kelley.

 

[ScopeY]

4 PMs

CHI/SEA

CHI DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, bad vs RB D.
SEA DVOA Matchup is good vs P/RB D.
Pace of play is T-8th.
Russ has the worst ASR matchup.
Montgom has the T-4th worst ALY matchup.

- CHI - missing 3 D players, on OL missing Peters for 2nd week.
- SEA - missing 4 D players

DFS/Prop notables
No Dissly.
No backups to Kmet.

I mention the TEs because Kmet/Everett should easily see 90%+ snaps, and can be used as a punt option.

Seattle had a lead or were within 1 possession all game last week, and Penny had 42% of snaps to Deejay's 58%, that concerns me and theres jsut better options at their price points. Pass. Nobody will be on Lockett or Metcalf, and I don't hate the idea of being contrarian ever... I won't be going there most likely... but these guys have awesome aDOTs, and the offense will have to run through them.. if theres a scenario where they fall behind, I can see them being top 5 at the WR position this week.

Mooney/Kmet would be my only CHI options.

DEN/LVR

DEN DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, meh vs RB D.
LVR DVOA Matchup is good vs P/RB D.
Pace of play is 12th. O/U is T-11th.
No bot/top 10's on either areas, feels like a first.

- DEN - On D, 2 LBs out. On OL Cushenberry is out.
- LVR - On D, 2 CBs, 2 Ss out.

DFS/Prop notables
No Teddy.
Probably no Waller.

To many TEs I like... but I think Fant has some upside here with no Teddy. Maybe one of these WRs can finally break one too without mr. dink and dunk. I don't want much exposure to this game though. Should be physical.

PIT/KCC

PIT DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, meh vs P D.
KCC DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, meh vs P D.
Pace of play is 2nd. O/U 4th.
Big Ben has 4th best ASR matchup.
Helaire? has 10th best ALY matchup.

- PIT - 5 D out.
- KCC - 2 D out.

DFS/Prop notables
No Freiermuth.
No Kelce????

Helaire almsot had a season high of 71% of snaps last week. add a good matchup, suppressed ownership, great pace, positive game script... and there's a path to success. My gut is telling my to stay away, and I feel like I'm talking myself into Pitt... please help.

I don't want exposure to hill, as I like other players of his caliber more, especially if theres no kelce to help coverage. If somehow Pitt plays with a lead (or doesn't even), Najee can be a slate breaker.... good matchup, good pace, and he plays 100% of snaps!!!! no other back can say that. If mass entering, tinker with some unexpected game flows, and I think this one stands out.