Week 16 DFS/Props Discussion

Everything you posting makes me feel even better bout my anytime td scorers, we on same page, hope we right!! Lol
 
I like chargers defense also but little more expensive than I like to go. Used a lot of bungals and donks who both 600 cheaper than chargers. Chargers d could be worth the extra tho, you spot on this the kinda game they made for where there really no threat of being run on,,they can pin ears back and play pass the entire game which should be miserable for mills!! Shoot, I’m gonna have to shuffle a few things to get chargers d in a couple more lineups! Lol
 
CEH just let’s me down too often when I think stars aligned for him. Agree with everything you said and price right but I’m much happier with guys like sanders, jRob, roJo, Williams, Jackson, in same range (cept Jackson who way cheaper than rest).
 
At wr I been getting as many rams and bungals as I can into lineups. Kupp when I can afford, then jettison and obj in others. Mostly higgens for cincy, little chase and Boyd in spots. Emanuel sanders is super cheap and I think he could be sneaky good as I think bills passing game is good today and Davis on the big C list so sanders gonna have to make plays I think. I did a few with Allen/diggs but mostly scattered sanders around where I needed a cheap wr (to afford Kupp!). I like Mooney also but hate using anyone in bears games!
 
I stayed away from Jefferson for Vikings only cause at the price I’m afraid theilen comes back and with Jefferson getting more attention theilen gets back to being the td maker, I played him in a few but of course worried he leaves early as those high ankle sprains can be a bitch so he might not still be right, I do think even gimpy he could be the red zone guy again, cousins loves him down there!
 
My thing with Mooney is bears can suck up the joint vs anyone and he basically same price as van Jefferson and I want all rams passing game I can get today.
 
Kelce being out does kinda make me even more intrigued with CEH, someone gonna have to see huge uptick in targets on underneath middle of zone spots!
 
2daBank said:
So I backed off burrow yards, that why I only posted over 1.5 pass tds for him last night, just not sure what this game script gonna look like with ravens down to 3rd string qb and lots of other issues? His yardage total fell from 269.5 last night all way down to 251.5 for I imagine the same concern I just brought up. I have no doubt he could smash this number vs ravens weakened secondary that not even a strength when they healthy anymore, problem is I just don’t know if he will be throwing enough or if bungals get out to a lead and try to milk clock? I don’t think Taylor a very good coach so he might do something stupid like that which keeps ravens in a lower scoring divisional slugfest.

The smart thing would be for bungals to come out guns blazing and light up ravens overmatched secondary, I don’t trust this coach to do the smart thing tho. Imo bungals talent is winning despite Taylor not because of him, all the coach of year talk for him was redic same as with kingsbury, 2 coaches who I think are actually holding back very good rosters yet getting credit cause these teams are winning!!
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I think Taylor has definitely held Burrow back all year, by refusing to go more up tempo with the offense.
 
Timh said:
I think Taylor has definitely held Burrow back all year, by refusing to go more up tempo with the offense.
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i often find myself imagining how good cincy and zona could be if they had more competent head coaches, kinda sucks cause they both got such good rosters now they gonna win games even with suspect coaching, so they gonna get to coach these teams for years and im afraid both will hold these teams back from reaching full potential.. in murray case i think he really needs a stronger better head coach as i think while he no doubt super gifted he showing tendencies i dont like and need to be coached out, dont see it happening with kliff. taylor offense is so basic and trash imo, they just have so much talent cant help but have some success, i could see bungals in a sb in near future with a better coach.
 
2daBank said:
targeting couple te’s on Xmas.

Love everything ertz,
Over 4.5 catches +110
Over 44.5 yards -110
Anytime td +230

Like yards over receptions but the +110 makes me want to take smidge of that also.

I lean hooper over Njoku. So hooper over 25.5 yards.

Chubb anytime td -105, teams score tds on pack when they get into the red zone, Chubb once again the most likely candidate imo. I don’t think it a bad idea to take flyers on hooper and/or Njoku for a anytime td at +360 and +400 respectively, think there a pretty good chance one of them find the endzone.

Kyler over 1.5 passing tds -135 has some value if you think cards make this a game, take away the tampa game and colts have only allowed 3 rushing tds all year! If zona scoring it most likely have to be on the arm of Murray.

That pretty much what I see for Xmas. There not a ton of receiving props for packers yet so maybe be something else. Id think one of Jones or Dillon will go over their rush total in the 40s but I dunno which? Of course ya can prob safely take Taylor to score but he -215! Maybe 2 tds?

Merry Xmas everyone.
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What props do you like for afternoon games
 
survive&advance said:
This is why I pretty much only bet props these days :shake:
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Yep., only thing that kept me from monster day was fucking sanders getting hurt, he was gonna fly over 57.5 easy, 7 Carry’s for 45 in 1st half before he went out. That fucking hurt 2 different group of 4 RRs. Then jRob getting hurt cost me a 2 and 3 teamer also
 
WAS/DAL

WAS DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, bad vs P D.
DAL DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, meh vs RB D.
Pace of play is 7th, O/U 2nd.
Heniecke has T-7th worst ASR matchup. Dak has the 9th best ASR matchup.

- WAS - On D, 1st week w/o LB (Holcomb), CB (Jackson III), S (Collins), 2nd week w/o S (Everett), DT (Wise)
- DAL - On D, 1st week w/o S (Hooker), CB (Lewis), 2nd week w/o DT (Hill). On OL, no Smith (Big),

DFS/Prop Notables
No Jarwin.
No McKissic, Samuel Q. Gibson Q.

I think I'm taking a stand against the backfield here. No Tyron Smith, and they're in a 60-40 timeshare... its not bad, and they definitely have TD equity... but I'm going to stick with the passing attack of dallas. I think Gallup is a good play, and leads the team in aDOT, and has been more involved of late too (so its not just 1 hail mary a game.... his last 5 weeks, (1 included no cooper, annother had no cooper/lamb, but 3 involved all 3 for the most part), he's had 94/96/91/82/92% of snaps. In that time frame, he's had an average of 100 airyards, and a 12 aDOT (both highest per game.) Schultz sees minumum 85, max 99% of snaps... going to take them 2 with dak... and try to fill out the roster with either lamb or cooper, and build from there.

We need to know gibson health... I'm not to confident in him, but with no mckissic, he is still a do it all back, and ppr counts in these things.... idk if the salary will fit though. Seals plays just as much as bates, and if you need to punt and pray for a td from bates, it could be an option to fit gibson in.

Mac5 > Humprhries > Carter/Sims are the order of Snap %.... humphries is the short aDOT guy... so he'' need volume to win it... sims looks like the non Mach5 deep threat.
 
Cooper been kinda noisy this week, usually plays a lot better at home, his crappy play of late has him w really attainable number imo, already have him to go over 51.5 rec but gonna play him to score also.
 
Instead of +140 for cooper anytime td I took cooper anytime td/Dallas to win +190. Also sprinkled cooper over 125 and td +1500,, I actually hit that on Higgins today and totally forgot to post it, was only 20 bucks but +1100. Almost forgot I played it till I was unfolding my tickets and putting in machine, lol.
 
And even tho have open parlay w cooper I hit his over again at 52.5. Hope I’m right bout this cause I’m way invested!!
 
M. Gallup Rec Yds O46.5 -115
D. Schults Rec Yds O39.5 -115
CD Lamb Receptions O5.5 +100

I like humphires over 2.5 too
 
Coop td for the +190 coop td/Dallas win!! He won’t get to the 125 mark but we still did the damn thing! What you say the other day scopey? If ppl ain’t making money in this thread they not paying attention!! Woot woot
 
2daBank said:
Coop td for the +190 coop td/Dallas win!! He won’t get to the 125 mark but we still did the damn thing! What you say the other day scopey? If ppl ain’t making money in this thread they not paying attention!! Woot woot
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Not all good! I did mention it was a td equity risk, but not having zeke tonight was a mistake :/ .... still cashing in my Dak MVP lineups, but I probably need a stupid Bates TD to really get anything
 
ScopeY said:
Not all good! I did mention it was a td equity risk, but not having zeke tonight was a mistake :/ .... still cashing in my Dak MVP lineups, but I probably need a stupid Bates TD to really get anything
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Oh I ain’t really won Jack at dfs all year, I don’t invest all that much to even try anymore. It all bout the prop bets!!
 
Only thing I see for 2marro is kumara numbers are low, fish been stingy to rbs lately but look at the trash they been facing, saints run game will be best they have faced in months. Kumara over 54.5 and a td at -110 I think ya gotta play. He should be really fresh and saints in playoff hunt, only avenue for them is for Peyton to get him off imo. I’m thinking worth a play, if Mia can keep him under wraps so be it.
 
2daBank said:
Only thing I see for 2marro is kumara numbers are low, fish been stingy to rbs lately but look at the trash they been facing, saints run game will be best they have faced in months. Kumara over 54.5 and a td at -110 I think ya gotta play. He should be really fresh and saints in playoff hunt, only avenue for them is for Peyton to get him off imo. I’m thinking worth a play, if Mia can keep him under wraps so be it.
2daBank said:
Only thing I see for 2marro is kumara numbers are low, fish been stingy to rbs lately but look at the trash they been facing, saints run game will be best they have faced in months. Kumara over 54.5 and a td at -110 I think ya gotta play. He should be really fresh and saints in playoff hunt, only avenue for them is for Peyton to get him off imo. I’m thinking worth a play, if Mia can keep him under wraps so be it.
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Cooper and lamb was good especially Cooper
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Dragos said:
Cooper and lamb was good especially Cooper
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I bet CD in parlay this morning before I had heard about Cooper making noise this week. Once I got wind of coop comments I knew he was the way to go especially at the short number. Love when a good wr that has good connection with qb comes out and makes noise after some bad games, pretty much automatic they gonna get fed!
 
2daBank said:
I bet CD in parlay this morning before I had heard about Cooper making noise this week. Once I got wind of coop comments I knew he was the way to go especially at the short number. Love when a good wr that has good connection with qb comes out and makes noise after some bad games, pretty much automatic they gonna get fed!
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What props u liking for tommorow besides Kamara
 
MIA/NOS

MIA DVOA Matchup is bad vs P/RB D.
NOS DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, meh vs P D.
Pace of play is 10th, O/U was last.
Tua has the 9th worst ASR matchup.
Duke? has the worst ALY matchup. Kamara has the 3rd worst.

- MIA - 1st week w/o LB (Riley), CB (Coleman)
- NOS - 1st week w/o S (Jenkins), DT (Ringo), DE (Holmes), S (Heath), LB (Davis), S (Gray), DE (Granderson), LB (Alexander). On OL, Armstead is Q (Important), No Mills, Carpenter.

DFS/Prop Notables.
No Hill/Siemian, no Trautman/Johnson/Griffin (all TEs), no Harris, Smith Q.
No Wilson

Duke wasn't an extreme bell cow it looked like, and he's jumping into the worst possible matchup (although 3 Dlineman out for NOS).... I'll let others chase... he played just 58% of snaps last week, gaskin still hit 37%. But i'm avoiding (like last night -- mistake) it for now.

Parker/Wilson/Ford/Hollins --- 89/58/27/18% of snaps, 8/2/3/1 were target share, 92/49/40/6 were air yards.... we have no wilson, but we now have waddle... I think this pulls from parker (and gesickis) targets.... Ford may be the player who gets a deep shot or two.

I think Gesicki can be played, he's obviously the pass catching TE on this team... but he was at 63% of snaps last week, his lowest since week 1.... Smythe was out there 92% of the time (and a run blocker), but for DFS purposes, I may put a tiny stake for him as a punt.

Apparently Ian Book (just from what I read) has some mobility, and dual threat QBs give you a safe floor, and I'd assume he isn't overly expensive. Saints did draft him well ahead of where experts had projected, so maybe they saw something.

Nick Vannett gets the luxury of having 3 TEs out, and can be considered, as he may be an everydown player.

I don't really want to take airyards into consideration with a new QB, but looking at playing time Callaway>Smith>>> eveeyone else (maybe even montgomery), just so happens aDOT follows this path too.
 
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