Week 16 DFS/Props Discussion
- Thread starter ScopeY
- Start date
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I like chargers defense also but little more expensive than I like to go. Used a lot of bungals and donks who both 600 cheaper than chargers. Chargers d could be worth the extra tho, you spot on this the kinda game they made for where there really no threat of being run on,,they can pin ears back and play pass the entire game which should be miserable for mills!! Shoot, I’m gonna have to shuffle a few things to get chargers d in a couple more lineups! Lol
2daBank
Voice of Reason
At wr I been getting as many rams and bungals as I can into lineups. Kupp when I can afford, then jettison and obj in others. Mostly higgens for cincy, little chase and Boyd in spots. Emanuel sanders is super cheap and I think he could be sneaky good as I think bills passing game is good today and Davis on the big C list so sanders gonna have to make plays I think. I did a few with Allen/diggs but mostly scattered sanders around where I needed a cheap wr (to afford Kupp!). I like Mooney also but hate using anyone in bears games!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I stayed away from Jefferson for Vikings only cause at the price I’m afraid theilen comes back and with Jefferson getting more attention theilen gets back to being the td maker, I played him in a few but of course worried he leaves early as those high ankle sprains can be a bitch so he might not still be right, I do think even gimpy he could be the red zone guy again, cousins loves him down there!
Timh
CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
I think Taylor has definitely held Burrow back all year, by refusing to go more up tempo with the offense.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
i often find myself imagining how good cincy and zona could be if they had more competent head coaches, kinda sucks cause they both got such good rosters now they gonna win games even with suspect coaching, so they gonna get to coach these teams for years and im afraid both will hold these teams back from reaching full potential.. in murray case i think he really needs a stronger better head coach as i think while he no doubt super gifted he showing tendencies i dont like and need to be coached out, dont see it happening with kliff. taylor offense is so basic and trash imo, they just have so much talent cant help but have some success, i could see bungals in a sb in near future with a better coach.
What props do you like for afternoon games
survive&advance
Nothing but net MFer!
This is why I pretty much only bet props these days :shake:
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Yep., only thing that kept me from monster day was fucking sanders getting hurt, he was gonna fly over 57.5 easy, 7 Carry’s for 45 in 1st half before he went out. That fucking hurt 2 different group of 4 RRs. Then jRob getting hurt cost me a 2 and 3 teamer also
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Sorry man I didn’t see this I was back up at casino round this time. Tonight I have opens left with cooper ov 51.5 rec yards and CD over 64.5.
Lost by .5
Over it ... For now after that.
I didn’t realize the game wasn’t over
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
WAS/DAL
WAS DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, bad vs P D.
DAL DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, meh vs RB D.
Pace of play is 7th, O/U 2nd.
Heniecke has T-7th worst ASR matchup. Dak has the 9th best ASR matchup.
- WAS - On D, 1st week w/o LB (Holcomb), CB (Jackson III), S (Collins), 2nd week w/o S (Everett), DT (Wise)
- DAL - On D, 1st week w/o S (Hooker), CB (Lewis), 2nd week w/o DT (Hill). On OL, no Smith (Big),
DFS/Prop Notables
No Jarwin.
No McKissic, Samuel Q. Gibson Q.
I think I'm taking a stand against the backfield here. No Tyron Smith, and they're in a 60-40 timeshare... its not bad, and they definitely have TD equity... but I'm going to stick with the passing attack of dallas. I think Gallup is a good play, and leads the team in aDOT, and has been more involved of late too (so its not just 1 hail mary a game.... his last 5 weeks, (1 included no cooper, annother had no cooper/lamb, but 3 involved all 3 for the most part), he's had 94/96/91/82/92% of snaps. In that time frame, he's had an average of 100 airyards, and a 12 aDOT (both highest per game.) Schultz sees minumum 85, max 99% of snaps... going to take them 2 with dak... and try to fill out the roster with either lamb or cooper, and build from there.
We need to know gibson health... I'm not to confident in him, but with no mckissic, he is still a do it all back, and ppr counts in these things.... idk if the salary will fit though. Seals plays just as much as bates, and if you need to punt and pray for a td from bates, it could be an option to fit gibson in.
Mac5 > Humprhries > Carter/Sims are the order of Snap %.... humphries is the short aDOT guy... so he'' need volume to win it... sims looks like the non Mach5 deep threat.
WAS DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, bad vs P D.
DAL DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, meh vs RB D.
Pace of play is 7th, O/U 2nd.
Heniecke has T-7th worst ASR matchup. Dak has the 9th best ASR matchup.
- WAS - On D, 1st week w/o LB (Holcomb), CB (Jackson III), S (Collins), 2nd week w/o S (Everett), DT (Wise)
- DAL - On D, 1st week w/o S (Hooker), CB (Lewis), 2nd week w/o DT (Hill). On OL, no Smith (Big),
DFS/Prop Notables
No Jarwin.
No McKissic, Samuel Q. Gibson Q.
I think I'm taking a stand against the backfield here. No Tyron Smith, and they're in a 60-40 timeshare... its not bad, and they definitely have TD equity... but I'm going to stick with the passing attack of dallas. I think Gallup is a good play, and leads the team in aDOT, and has been more involved of late too (so its not just 1 hail mary a game.... his last 5 weeks, (1 included no cooper, annother had no cooper/lamb, but 3 involved all 3 for the most part), he's had 94/96/91/82/92% of snaps. In that time frame, he's had an average of 100 airyards, and a 12 aDOT (both highest per game.) Schultz sees minumum 85, max 99% of snaps... going to take them 2 with dak... and try to fill out the roster with either lamb or cooper, and build from there.
We need to know gibson health... I'm not to confident in him, but with no mckissic, he is still a do it all back, and ppr counts in these things.... idk if the salary will fit though. Seals plays just as much as bates, and if you need to punt and pray for a td from bates, it could be an option to fit gibson in.
Mac5 > Humprhries > Carter/Sims are the order of Snap %.... humphries is the short aDOT guy... so he'' need volume to win it... sims looks like the non Mach5 deep threat.
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
scared the crap out of me
All good.
I thought maybe he was pulled from the game. I'll take it, needed any fantasy points I could get from him.
skanless13
Fly, Eagles, Fly!
For real
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Instead of +140 for cooper anytime td I took cooper anytime td/Dallas to win +190. Also sprinkled cooper over 125 and td +1500,, I actually hit that on Higgins today and totally forgot to post it, was only 20 bucks but +1100. Almost forgot I played it till I was unfolding my tickets and putting in machine, lol.
You like anyone from the redskins?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
No
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Let’s get it. The gambling gods owe me one for sanders getting hurt which screwed like I dunno 10 2 and 3 team parlays for me!!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I think this gonna end up being crazy. Dallas 50 something, wtf 20ish
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Shultz in the books. Cd over yards, close on catches
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Not all good! I did mention it was a td equity risk, but not having zeke tonight was a mistake :/ .... still cashing in my Dak MVP lineups, but I probably need a stupid Bates TD to really get anything
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Oh I ain’t really won Jack at dfs all year, I don’t invest all that much to even try anymore. It all bout the prop bets!!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Only thing I see for 2marro is kumara numbers are low, fish been stingy to rbs lately but look at the trash they been facing, saints run game will be best they have faced in months. Kumara over 54.5 and a td at -110 I think ya gotta play. He should be really fresh and saints in playoff hunt, only avenue for them is for Peyton to get him off imo. I’m thinking worth a play, if Mia can keep him under wraps so be it.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I bet CD in parlay this morning before I had heard about Cooper making noise this week. Once I got wind of coop comments I knew he was the way to go especially at the short number. Love when a good wr that has good connection with qb comes out and makes noise after some bad games, pretty much automatic they gonna get fed!
What props u liking for tommorow besides Kamara
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
MIA/NOS
MIA DVOA Matchup is bad vs P/RB D.
NOS DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, meh vs P D.
Pace of play is 10th, O/U was last.
Tua has the 9th worst ASR matchup.
Duke? has the worst ALY matchup. Kamara has the 3rd worst.
- MIA - 1st week w/o LB (Riley), CB (Coleman)
- NOS - 1st week w/o S (Jenkins), DT (Ringo), DE (Holmes), S (Heath), LB (Davis), S (Gray), DE (Granderson), LB (Alexander). On OL, Armstead is Q (Important), No Mills, Carpenter.
DFS/Prop Notables.
No Hill/Siemian, no Trautman/Johnson/Griffin (all TEs), no Harris, Smith Q.
No Wilson
Duke wasn't an extreme bell cow it looked like, and he's jumping into the worst possible matchup (although 3 Dlineman out for NOS).... I'll let others chase... he played just 58% of snaps last week, gaskin still hit 37%. But i'm avoiding (like last night -- mistake) it for now.
Parker/Wilson/Ford/Hollins --- 89/58/27/18% of snaps, 8/2/3/1 were target share, 92/49/40/6 were air yards.... we have no wilson, but we now have waddle... I think this pulls from parker (and gesickis) targets.... Ford may be the player who gets a deep shot or two.
I think Gesicki can be played, he's obviously the pass catching TE on this team... but he was at 63% of snaps last week, his lowest since week 1.... Smythe was out there 92% of the time (and a run blocker), but for DFS purposes, I may put a tiny stake for him as a punt.
Apparently Ian Book (just from what I read) has some mobility, and dual threat QBs give you a safe floor, and I'd assume he isn't overly expensive. Saints did draft him well ahead of where experts had projected, so maybe they saw something.
Nick Vannett gets the luxury of having 3 TEs out, and can be considered, as he may be an everydown player.
I don't really want to take airyards into consideration with a new QB, but looking at playing time Callaway>Smith>>> eveeyone else (maybe even montgomery), just so happens aDOT follows this path too.
MIA DVOA Matchup is bad vs P/RB D.
NOS DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, meh vs P D.
Pace of play is 10th, O/U was last.
Tua has the 9th worst ASR matchup.
Duke? has the worst ALY matchup. Kamara has the 3rd worst.
- MIA - 1st week w/o LB (Riley), CB (Coleman)
- NOS - 1st week w/o S (Jenkins), DT (Ringo), DE (Holmes), S (Heath), LB (Davis), S (Gray), DE (Granderson), LB (Alexander). On OL, Armstead is Q (Important), No Mills, Carpenter.
DFS/Prop Notables.
No Hill/Siemian, no Trautman/Johnson/Griffin (all TEs), no Harris, Smith Q.
No Wilson
Duke wasn't an extreme bell cow it looked like, and he's jumping into the worst possible matchup (although 3 Dlineman out for NOS).... I'll let others chase... he played just 58% of snaps last week, gaskin still hit 37%. But i'm avoiding (like last night -- mistake) it for now.
Parker/Wilson/Ford/Hollins --- 89/58/27/18% of snaps, 8/2/3/1 were target share, 92/49/40/6 were air yards.... we have no wilson, but we now have waddle... I think this pulls from parker (and gesickis) targets.... Ford may be the player who gets a deep shot or two.
I think Gesicki can be played, he's obviously the pass catching TE on this team... but he was at 63% of snaps last week, his lowest since week 1.... Smythe was out there 92% of the time (and a run blocker), but for DFS purposes, I may put a tiny stake for him as a punt.
Apparently Ian Book (just from what I read) has some mobility, and dual threat QBs give you a safe floor, and I'd assume he isn't overly expensive. Saints did draft him well ahead of where experts had projected, so maybe they saw something.
Nick Vannett gets the luxury of having 3 TEs out, and can be considered, as he may be an everydown player.
I don't really want to take airyards into consideration with a new QB, but looking at playing time Callaway>Smith>>> eveeyone else (maybe even montgomery), just so happens aDOT follows this path too.
