Week 15 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

[Br@ssknux]

***********BAR is there still a thread Hall of Fame???? This thread has a great chance to be wrong on 13 out of 14 games!!!! It must be kept for posterity!!!!!********



I grabbed ASU for tomorrow night early this week at 9, but that line is long gone and 2 points past a couple useful numbers makes a difference so I wouldn't play it at the current number (11.5). Another 5-6 week last week, it's just been a tough year to figure.

1. Northern Illinois +6 @Eastern Michigan: I don't have a lot of optimism for long term outlook for the Huskies program. They've actually been on a bit of a downward spiral since Rod Carey no longer had Dave Doeren's leftovers, but I don't think Big Thomas Hammock is going to end up being the answer. They're 0-5, but they've been more competitive than I thought they'd be this year. Even last week, they were covering late into the game against a Toledo game. Ultimately, they certainly give up a lot of yards on defense, and they are mostly anemic on offense, but there's a couple things they do well: They are great on 3rd down defense, and they cover spreads as a road dog. The Huskies are 6-1 since the beginning of last year as a road dog, and if you go back to 2014, they're 16-6 in that role. EMU is another squad that is just about automatic as a road dog ATS, but they are the exact opposite at home, 4-9 ATS overall at home and 2-5 as a home favorite. If you look at their box scores, we wonder how they've been able to hang in games, and the answer lies in their 3rd down performance on defense. Until Toledo pulled away last week, they were struggling with the Huskies because they couldn't convert a third down until late in the game. EMU also ranks in the 100's in just about every meaningful category on defense, which doesn't seem to be conducive to covering a 6 point spread against a team that is completely comfortable in role as a road dog.

 

[twinkie13]

The get back is twice as nice my guy!!!

best meat on the bone write ups on the webs.

GL this weekend.

you got FLA this weekend? BIG rivalry game. Mullen won’t be as nice as Saban. He can’t afford to be either. Shitshow in BR.

Hoosiers all day baby!! What a travesty in the B10

 

[Br@ssknux]

The get back is twice as nice my guy!!!

best meat on the bone write ups on the webs.

GL this weekend.

you got FLA this weekend? BIG rivalry game. Mullen won’t be as nice as Saban. He can’t afford to be either. Shitshow in BR.

Hoosiers all day baby!! What a travesty in the B10

Thanks Twink! Yep, Florida will be on my card. About to fall asleep at the computer so I'll get to that one tomorrow.

The thing I don't get about the Big Ten is that it probably didn't matter if OSU was in the title game or not, the conference was pretty likely to get OSU in the playoff. I just feel bad for the people that grabbed futures tickets on NW and IN ( and I know a guy that has both and was ready to hedge) based on what they expected the protocol to be based on the rules set by the ADs initially. Why not just let Indiana and NW play in the title game and match up OSU with the Iowa/Wisconsin winner next week. If OSU wins that they're probably in if they're declared Big Ten champs or not.

 

[2daBank]

But why should Hoosiers get into title game when osu beat them? That feels more disingenuous to me than changing the arbitrary number osu can’t reach cause Michigan cancelled. Maybe I’m wrong but I feel like it would be a total sham to declare Hoosiers or NW the big 10 champ when clearly neither is.

 

[Br@ssknux]

But why should Hoosiers get into title game when osu beat them? That feels more disingenuous to me than changing the arbitrary number osu can’t reach cause Michigan cancelled. Maybe I’m wrong but I feel like it would be a total sham to declare Hoosiers or NW the big 10 champ when clearly neither is.

Well, the rules set up initially were that you had to play six to be eligible, regardless of why, and they didn't get to six. So they're out, next team up, it's IU. It's not like I have a strong opinion on it, it would just be a way for the Big Ten to accomplish what it wants (OSU in the playoff anyway) without appearing to be a total farce.

 

[Br@ssknux]

2. Wake Forest +1 @Louisville: Every year, in the analysis I do when capping games, there are a couple teams that grossly underperform on the field vs how they look on paper. It usually takes a couple weeks for that to become clear, but the phenomenon usually does not reverse itself. Louisville and North Texas are probably the two teams that fit that bill the best this year. I haven't really bet much on Louisville, but on paper they looked like they had the edge gong into their games with Miami(granted it was a small sample size), VT, Virginia and Boston College, and found a way to lose all of those games. They actually are outgaining their opponents by almost 75 yeards per game, yet still find themselves at 3-7. Turnovers, among other things have led to this, but long story short, they haven't played winning football, which to me is a bit surprising because I really like Scott Satterfield. Now, here comes Wake Forest into Papa John's stadium, and Wake is kind of the opposite of Louisville. Under Clawson, they've found a way to win games, and they are a big plus on turnovers, unlike the Cards. I never like to attempt to handicap turnovers, but Wake hasn't thrown a single INT all year and are #1 in the country in avoiding giveaways, while Louisville is 98th in forcing them. On the flip side, guess who's 122nd in giveaways? Exactly, and Wake is ranked 15th in forcing them. Louisville should be able to move the ball easily on that Wake defense, but that's been the case pretty every week for Louisville and it hasn't translated into wins. Oh, and by the way, Wake's offense isn't bad either, so Louisville is likely to give up big chunks to them as well. I'm riding with the more trustworthy squad in this one.

 

[B.A.R.]

2. Wake Forest +1 @Louisville: Every year, in the analysis I do when capping games, there are a couple teams that grossly underperform on the field vs how they look on paper. It usually takes a couple weeks for that to become clear, but the phenomenon usually does not reverse itself. Louisville and North Texas are probably the two teams that fit that bill the best this year. I haven't really bet much on Louisville, but on paper they looked like they had the edge gong into their games with Miami(granted it was a small sample size), VT, Virginia and Boston College, and found a way to lose all of those games. They actually are outgaining their opponents by almost 75 yeards per game, yet still find themselves at 3-7. Turnovers, among other things have led to this, but long story short, they haven't played winning football, which to me is a bit surprising because I really like Scott Satterfield. Now, here comes Wake Forest into Papa John's stadium, and Wake is kind of the opposite of Louisville. Under Clawson, they've found a way to win games, and they are a big plus on turnovers, unlike the Cards. I never like to attempt to handicap turnovers, but Wake hasn't thrown a single INT all year and are #1 in the country in avoiding giveaways, while Louisville is 98th in forcing them. On the flip side, guess who's 122nd in giveaways? Exactly, and Wake is ranked 15th in forcing them. Louisville should be able to move the ball easily on that Wake defense, but that's been the case pretty every week for Louisville and it hasn't translated into wins. Oh, and by the way, Wake's offense isn't bad either, so Louisville is likely to give up big chunks to them as well. I'm riding with the more trustworthy squad in this one.

Good stuff.

This game last year was WILD.

Crazy about that INT stat.

 

[2daBank]

Well, the rules set up initially were that you had to play six to be eligible, regardless of why, and they didn't get to six. So they're out, next team up, it's IU. It's not like I have a strong opinion on it, it would just be a way for the Big Ten to accomplish what it wants (OSU in the playoff anyway) without appearing to be a total farce.

there no sense going back and forth and ultimately I don’t care, but I think it be a total farce to crown either NW or Hoosiers who lost to osu as the big10 champs. You can’t lose head to head vs a team who unbeaten and be the champs in my world. I think it far more asinine osu gonna get into the playoff regardless they won the big10 or not. Not as if smoking a lousy NW team is gonna be what seals it for them, or shouldn’t anyways.

 

[Br@ssknux]

there no sense going back and forth and ultimately I don’t care, but I think it be a total farce to crown either NW or Hoosiers who lost to osu as the big10 champs. You can’t lose head to head vs a team who unbeaten and be the champs in my world. I think it far more asinine osu gonna get into the playoff regardless they won the big10 or not. Not as if smoking a lousy NW team is gonna be what seals it for them, or shouldn’t anyways.

Yeah, neither one of us cares enough to argue about it. Totally agree

 

[Br@ssknux]

3. Minnesota +10.5 @Nebraska: After missing a couple weeks due to COVID issues, there's some concern in trying to determine where Minnesota is motivation wise, especially since their best offensive player, WR Rashad Bateman opted out a week or so ago. Now, I'm annoyed by PJ Fleck as much as anybody else, but if there's one thing he can do, it's get 18-22 year olds to follow him like he's some sort of cult leader. He's also no dummy, so if they were checked out, he'd ultimately figure out a way to avoid playing this game. If they play, I'm assuming we'll get a motivated effort out of the Gophers. I was on Nebraska last week because I liked their matchup against Purdue as a short road dog, but now they are back in a situation that so far has completed flummoxed Scott Frost in his Nebraska tenure, and that's how to perform when expectations are high and you have to take care of business. As bad as Minnesota is on defense, Nebraska's offense is not capable in this situation to put up enough points to cover for a subpar Nebraska defense against a Minnesota offense that should be able to run or pass on them with relative regularity. Nebraska has shown the ability to perform when expectations are low and there's not much to lose, but the last time the Huskers played off a win, they got run off the field by Illinois. On paper, it looks like they are going to have a really hard time getting Minnesota's offense off the field. I show the Gophers with the edge in the running game, the passing game, and especially on 3rd down (MN ranks 5th vs Nebraska's 103rd ranked 3rd down defense. I just don't trust this Husker outfit's ability to stand prosperity.

 

[2daBank]

Yeah, neither one of us cares enough to argue about it. Totally agree

Regardless how we feel bout it think we can agree that ncaa will never choose integrity over money. Lol. Gl this week

 

[Br@ssknux]

Regardless how we feel bout it think we can agree that ncaa will never choose integrity over money. Lol. Gl this week

Well, if by NCAA you mean the conferences and schools(which is the case in football because the NCAA doesn't have much of a role in anything other than preserving kids amateur status when it comes to football) I agree. But let's remember, without football, all the other non revenue sports(and their scholarships) are dead unless wealthy parents foot the bill, so I don't begrudge them for looking for ways to make as much cash as possible.

 

[Br@ssknux]

4. Western Michigan +2 @Ball State: I generally like Ball State, but in this case, I don't like the situation. The Cardinals are at their best when they can kind of fly under the radar and kind of stroll into a opposing stadium as a 10 point dog and hang around until they make a couple plays at the end of the game and steal a win. This week, they are favored at home against a traditional conference bully in Western Michigan, in a game that if they win, they clinch their first trip to the MAC title game in a long time. For whatever reason, WMU has dropped a couple head scratchers, including last week at home, but that was against EMU, who for whatever reason has cosmic powers whenever they suit up as a road dog. If you look at WMU's body of work this year, they really have only stopped themselves, either with dropped passes or penalties or getting stopped on downs on a play that fell apart. Nobody on their schedule has really even slowed them down on offense, which their #1 ranking in yards per pass attempt bears out. Ball State certainly won't be the first to stop them, as they've given up 8.3 yards per attempt, good for 102nd in the country. Although Ball State has thrown it effectively this year, they might struggle with WMU's pressure, as they're susceptible to pressure(113th in sacks allowed) and WMU gets after the passer (12th in sack rate). I just don't like this matchup for Ball State.

 

[Br@ssknux]

5. @Missouri +14(-120) v Georgia: I went ahead and bought this up to 14 and took a stab at it. Although I was a little skeptical of the Eli Drinkwitz hire, it's pretty clear that this team has gotten better as the year has progressed, and many times, when we're dealing with a first year coach, the effort remains consistent throughout the end of the year, even if there doesn't seem to be much riding on the games. Mizzou is 5-3 so they're continuing to build momentum. Georgia, although they've turned it on offensively since they gave the keys to JT Daniels, seems like a team ripe for a subpar effort. I can't see them looking at Mizzou as a team they need to be all that concerned with, but recent evidence, and the caliber of the Tigers performances at home would tell you otherwise. Mizzou has been very good on both sides of the ball on 3rd down, and Georgia is going to have to play extremely well to blow this team out, and even then, Mizzou will likely have a shot at the back door. They've rung up 600+ yards 2 weeks in a row(albeit against Vandy and Arkansas), so they're on a roll and capable offensively.

 

[Br@ssknux]

6. Navy +7.5 v Army: This is definitely not your older brother's Navy team, as the Middies have struggled mightily this year on both sides of the ball. They've been especially roasted by good rushing attacks throughout the year, but have righted the ship in recent weeks, holding of their last 4 opponents(all with good offenses) to 3.0 or less per attempt on the ground. On the ground is all they'll have to worry about this week as Army can't throw the ball, and Navy obviously knows how to stop the run. On paper, Army looks like the much better team, as they've run the ball pretty well and are good on 3rd down, but there is absolutely no comparison between the schedules these two teams have played. If you gave Navy the opportunity to play Abilene Christian, Mercer, ULM and The Citadel, I'm guessing Navy might have a better 3rd down conversion rate too. Ultimately, as always, this is going to be a low scoring game, and 11 of the last 12 Army/Navy games have been covered by the dog. I don't think Navy will get outclassed in this one.

 

[Timh]

Brass BOL on the weekend. I like your thoughts on Minnesota, no way Neb should be DD favorite.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Thanks Timmy! BOL.

 

[oakas]

Br@. You have the best write-ups. Love reading your logic on the games.

Good luck my friend.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Br@. You have the best write-ups. Love reading your logic on the games.

Good luck my friend.

Thanks Oakas for the kind words.

 

[Br@ssknux]

7. Miami -3 v North Carolina: This is the first time I've faded North Carolina this year, and also the first time I've backed Miami. I typically have an aversion to Manny Diaz, but it's hard to criticize him this year, as the Canes are 8-1. North Carolina would be another school that typically underperforms it's statistical data, and when I run the numbers in this game, UNC has the edge in more categories than not. The Tar Heels, however, cannot be trusted in this game because of their results on the road regardless of how good the box score looked for them. Other than their demolition of Duke, UNC grossly underperformed in every road game this year, starting with BC and including losses to vastly inferior teams like Virginia and believe it or not, Florida State. They really look like two different teams, depending on the venue. Both offenses have been clicking recently, but Miami's defense has been playing much better than the UNC defense. Ultimately, I just can't trust this UNC team on the road.

 

[Br@ssknux]

8. Duke +4 @ Florida State: Obviously, betting on Duke these days takes quite a pair, but ultimately, Florida State has no business being favored over anyone at any time this year. FSU has been outgained by at least 66 yards by every team they've played this year. Among all of the categories I consider when handicapping a game, Florida State is ranked no better than 101st in any one category. There really isn't any one thing they do well At least Duke still has David Cutcliffe, right? Duke has taken it on the chin in recent weeks, but Chase Brice will have things to his liking here, as the Noles are 105th in pass defense, and come in at 119th in sack rate. If Brice can keep from turning it over(which has been a problem for Duke) I see Duke as the better team in this matchup, so I'll definitely take the points here.

 

[HUNT]

I feel a big week for you right here. Inject positive thoughts. Have the mental make up of a warrior. Crush books. Gl.

 

[RetroVK]

china by 8

 

[RetroVK]

get that cash br@ss

great writeups as usual

 

[B.A.R.]

5. @Missouri +14(-120) v Georgia: I went ahead and bought this up to 14 and took a stab at it. Although I was a little skeptical of the Eli Drinkwitz hire, it's pretty clear that this team has gotten better as the year has progressed, and many times, when we're dealing with a first year coach, the effort remains consistent throughout the end of the year, even if there doesn't seem to be much riding on the games. Mizzou is 5-3 so they're continuing to build momentum. Georgia, although they've turned it on offensively since they gave the keys to JT Daniels, seems like a team ripe for a subpar effort. I can't see them looking at Mizzou as a team they need to be all that concerned with, but recent evidence, and the caliber of the Tigers performances at home would tell you otherwise. Mizzou has been very good on both sides of the ball on 3rd down, and Georgia is going to have to play extremely well to blow this team out, and even then, Mizzou will likely have a shot at the back door. They've rung up 600+ yards 2 weeks in a row(albeit against Vandy and Arkansas), so they're on a roll and capable offensively.

Appreciate this..needed some mizzou info

 

[Br@ssknux]

Does anyone know what's up with Wyoming going from 11.5 down to 9 v Boise. I was looking at Wyoming but not sure what that moves signifies.

 

[Br@ssknux]

9. Wisconsin -2 @Iowa: After watching Wisconsin's offense over the past couple of weeks, it's hard to make a play like this, especially against a good defense like Iowa's on the road in what could be bad weather, but hear me out. A lot has been made of Graham Mertz and how he was anointed a legend after the one hot game against Illinois, and now it's assumed he's been exposed as a fraud. Maybe so, but this game isn't going to be decided solely on how he plays. Iowa's defense is definitely a stout unit, but let's not forget about that Wisconsin defense. 4th in the country in yards per play against, 5th in yards per carry against and 3rd in yards per pass attempt, not to mention #1 on 3rd down. Has anyone watched Spencer Petras play quarterback this year? Last week he got a reprieve and looked decent because his coaches basically grabbed him by the collar and screamed "THROW THE FUCKING BALL TO THE TIGHT ENDS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FIELD! NOTHING ELSE!!" Luckily for him, Illinois was completely incapable of covering the tight ends and a 14-0 deficit due mostly to Petras's brutal incompetence turned into a 35-21 road win. I am here to tell you that Petras will not be able to have success against that Wisconsin defense, and I suspect deliver a couple easy ones to lurking Badger linebackers hiding in coverage. I realize that Mertz and a Badger offense that lacks playmakers will struggle against this Iowa defense, but I think Petras v Jim Leonhard's scheme is an even worse matchup, and both of these teams are due for a reversal of fortune.

 

[s--k]

Does anyone know what's up with Wyoming going from 11.5 down to 9 v Boise. I was looking at Wyoming but not sure what that moves signifies.

Snow and temps below 20 sometimes hurts favorites.

Boise clinched a spot in next week's MWC Title game as well.

I am not sure if the WYO QB situation improved or if they will see at gametime

 

[Br@ssknux]

10. @Florida -23.5 v LSU: Similar to the Alabama game last week, LSU's defense is at the mercy of this Florida offense and the Gators are going to score about as many points as Dan Mullen feels like scoring. My guess is that he won't let off the gas, because 1, it doesn't seem to be in his nature, 2, he's going to be looking to pad Kyle Trask's stats in prime time here at the end of the year, and 3, LSU hasn't likely endeared themselves to him after 10 years playing in the same division, and Coach O seems to be on the year long receiving end of a "here's for dancing in the locker room last year" revenge tour. The Florida O v LSU D matchups are not pretty to say the least. 6th ranked Florida offense in yards per play vs LSU's 122nd ranked defense. Florida's 6th ranked pass offense vs LSU's 124th ranked pass defense. You get the picture. Florida will be in the high 40's at least, maybe 50's. The question is if this LSU offense can get some points on the board. I think they can, but I have a feeling Mullen will keep an eye on the spread and score what he needs to, and there's just as good a chance that LSU reverts back to the anemic state they were in prior to all the surprising explosive plays that gave them a few points last week.

 

[s--k]

Florida really hasn't had a feel good blow'em out win in a while now actually. Comfortable wins, but the last laugher was 4 games ago. If they are in position to do it, I think they pour it on today. Might be with backups at somepoint, but play calling should still be aggressive.

 

[Br@ssknux]

11.Louisiana Tech +21.5 @TCU: I kind of like the way TCU as played in the last few weeks, but this is a play on principle. Louisiana Tech is another one of those teams that if you just line up the stats, they look terrible. For example, they are ranked 124th in the country in yards per play on offense, 125th in rush offense, 103rd in pass offense, etc, but there they are scoring 37 points to beat UAB as a double digit dog and scoring 41 points last week. Obviously, they're stepping up in class this week, but they're a team that outperforms their stats, so to speak. That's just some background, but the real reason I'm playing this is on principle. Since 2016, TCU is 8-22 ATS in home games, 5-12 as a favorite, and LT is 19-11 on the road. This is a trend play for the most part...I don't rely a ton on trends, but when they are this profound, there's usually something behind it. (FYI, line just gave us another 1/2 point on this one, up to 21.5)

 

[Br@ssknux]

Snow and temps below 20 sometimes hurts favorites.

Boise clinched a spot in next week's MWC Title game as well.

I am not sure if the WYO QB situation improved or if they will see at gametime

I'm hoping something is keeping Bachmeier out of the game. If that kid that played vs BYU ends up behind center, I'll be on WYO ML

 

[Br@ssknux]

12. @UCLA +3.5 v USC: It's so great that these teams went back to both wearing their home uniforms. As far as the matchup goes, I like the way this shakes out for UCLA. There was some question about the running game of USC, and their performance last week against WAZZOU clinched it. They blew out of the gates on bad WSU turnovers and big plays against that putrid Cougs pass defense, but once they got up, they could not salt the game away on the ground. WSU couldn't score anyway so it didn't matter, but the Trojans ended up with 5 yards on 20 carries. 5!!!. UCLA has proven to be very stout on both lines and especially on their defensive line, so I'd be stunned if USC got anything going on the ground. UCLA also is 14th in the country in sack rate, so Slovis isn't going to have all day to throw back there, especially when they can't run it to keep the UCLA defense honest. Offensively the Bruins have been effective with either of their QBs, and they've been playing with some confidence. I also think UCLA has played tougher competition than USC...UCLA will be the best team they've faced. I show an edge for UCLA in most of the areas I pay attention to, so it looks like I'm getting more than a FG with the better team. I'll roll the dice in that case.

 

[Br@ssknux]

13 @Mississippi State +6.5 v Auburn: I think this is another example where a first year coach can make a difference in motivation at this time of year. It's pretty obvious that Mike Leach felt he needed to put his stamp on his new program a couple weeks into the season. It happened at WSU when he got his ass handed to him for about a year as he was launching the ne'er do wells from his program and rebuilding things, but he eventually brought some kids in that could be competitive in his system. The same thing happened at MSU this year, but it looks like he has more to work with now that people are starting to buy in. In the past 3-4 weeks, they have looked much better, especially on offense. They were right thee with Georgia and Ole Miss as major dogs and their defense has been solid most of the year. Now Auburn comes in after pretty much emptying the tank last week against A&M. They'll get "road Bo Nix" and a team under Malzahn that certainly doesn't have the momentum of Leach in year one, with players looking fit in to a program that's going to be around awhile. If Auburn doesn't play near the top of their abilities, they have a great shot to lose this game, and it doesn't look like the type of situation that bring out a top effort.

 

[Br@ssknux]

14. San Diego State +17 @BYU: Motivation worries me a bit for SDSU here since they've lost some tough games, but the same can be true for BYU, who've lost any fleeting chance for a group of 5 new years bowl berth with their loss to Coastal last week. Ultimately, I just can't pass up the chance to take 17 points with a team who has a defense as good as San Diego State. They've played some pretty good offenses this year, including San Jose State (10th in yards per play), Nevada (29th) and Colorado, and only 1 team cracked 300 total yards. BYU is ranked 4th in that category, but the only defense they've played that compares to this one is the Coastal defense they were held to 17 by last week, and SDSU's defense ranks significantly higher. 1st in yards per play against, 7th against the run, 2nd against the pass and 4th on 3rd down. SDSU isn't likely to put up many points in this one, but how many do they need to cover this? If BYU comes in and marches the ball up and down the field on the Aztecs, I'll tip my cap, but I think the chances are good that their defense keeps them in this game until the end.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Bumping because we need to mark this thread for the HALL OF FAME!!! I might go 1-13!!!!! And I actually liked a lot of these plays. What a day!

 

[B.A.R.]

Ucla just a brutal loss