jedi ninja
Larry the liberal
I’m just busting stones here, but if he’s a top 1/3 coach and there are 32 teams...he’s top 10 no? Or is he 10.67, so you have him 11th?
Week 15 Lookahead Lines/ BetOnline Openers and Discussion
- Thread starter Capaholic
- Start date
I’m just busting stones here, but if he’s a top 1/3 coach and there are 32 teams...he’s top 10 no? Or is he 10.67, so you have him 11th?
Capaholic
Proud Member of Chiefs Nation
The Chargers are loaded. Even their depth would start on a lot of teams. This has nothing to do with last night, but Jim Caldwell won a bunch of games with Manning. Didn’t make him a good coach. He does not crack the top 10 in any way in my opinion. And that’s not to dismiss all the positive stories about his character and personality. Good on him for being an awesome dude. Doesn’t make him a great coach.
Whats with the line movement against Seattle
austinhous
Pretty much a regular
The Browns flew to Denver 48 hours early - after practice yesterday - and scheduled a practice today to further acclimatize themselves. The coaching staff consulted analytics & physiological studies to decide the best approach to prep for the altitude as well.
My understanding is that this approach only tires out athletes. Arriving as close as possible to game time is better, unless you have multiple weeks to acclimate. I like the Browns, but may lay off for that reason.
Didn‘t someone post here in the context of Rams/Chiefs game a scientific study that it takes more than a week to acclimatize oneself to altitude or it just tires one out? Altho both teams seemed equally energetic in that game lol
C-MAN
Pretty much a regular
NO is playing it’s 3rd consecutive road game. Here is an article from last season on topic.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ni...istory-three-straight-road-games-nfl-gambling
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ni...istory-three-straight-road-games-nfl-gambling
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Well that one ended up getting played in LA so...
austinhous
Pretty much a regular
Use this to sound smart tonight when someone mentions the "thin air" in Denver:
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
Altitude sickness, lethargy,particularly doing hard cardio type is very real, but I'm guessing more for weekend warriors than athletes with world class medical attention/preparation, but if an athlete takes it for granted, they will pay on the field imo
austinhous
Pretty much a regular
Exactly, and when I see headlines like "Browns vow to make elevation an afterthought at Mile High" and "Browns' coaching staff 'have looked into different ways' to prepare the players for a game at altitude" I tend to trust the professionals to do their jobs, kind of like trusting Kevin Cash to manage a "bullpen game" for the Rays.
austinhous
Pretty much a regular
I think the more pressing issue is the Browns' two road wins in their last 30 attempts.
aplous
Donkey Hater
Not sure what 2-28 has to do with this team with Baker. Most of those losses are Hue and some shitbag QB’s. This team clearly has some juice.
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austinhous
Pretty much a regular
Alright, you have a good point. Time to move on. Gregg Williams 3 wins in 5 games and it took Hue 37 attempts to win 3 games. Those two dudes are actually tied for 16th most wins in franchise history, but with a win tonight Williams can pass Hue and move to 15th-most all time and tie Rob Chudzinski with 4 wins as Browns' HC.
BJPLAYER
Pretty much a regular
Pats won't be able to run and neither will Pitt. This game has the look of an over to me. Not sure about Ben's health but the guy is so tough that I'm not really concerned about it. Brady has all his weapons healthy for his 3rd game in a row and Gronk is finally in shape. (lazy fuck) Ben has 3 top of the line receivers and Pats secondary very suspect. I like over
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Not a bad idea...wonder if taking both dogs today wouldn't at least yield a 1-1 result although Cleveland barely yielding the dog value anymore
Am i the only one who likes Denver?
C-MAN
Pretty much a regular
Nope
austinhous
Pretty much a regular
I'm not getting anything near the numbers that article is quoting. Saints actually look good to me, for a couple reasons. First off, they're playing these three consecutive road games in the span of 18 days - the largest possible time frame in which an NFL team can do that without incurring a bye week. Second, if you go back the last 20 seasons and check out road favorites laying more than 2 points in their third consecutive road game in a three-week span: 82% straight up and 64% against the spread (albeit only a 22 game sample).
I know you didn't write the article so I'm not shitting on you, and no one has even confirmed this information on my part yet, but for the sake of full transparency I wanted to issue a rebuttal, so thanks for the opportunity to do so. *Also the 49ers covered the spread that article was written about.
:cheers6:
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austinhous
Pretty much a regular
austinhous
Pretty much a regular
division hangover
Since January 2017 Adam Gase 0-7 SU and ATS (avg line +7) away from home the week after facing a division rival. Dolphins averaged 10±7 ppg and were outscored 201-70, losing by a combined margin of 131 points.
Dolphins u17½ -110
Since January 2017 Adam Gase 0-7 SU and ATS (avg line +7) away from home the week after facing a division rival. Dolphins averaged 10±7 ppg and were outscored 201-70, losing by a combined margin of 131 points.
Dolphins u17½ -110
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I would love to hear what you guys think bout packers/bears. I find myself asking is Rodgers determined to finish season strong so his petty ego can continue saying “see look it was mccarthys fault” or will last week been enough and minute bears pass rushers start beating his oline he gives up and throws in towel w bunch of those obvious throw aways he been making all year to avoid getting hit. I feel like you answer this question and it becomes a really easy bet.
I don’t know answer, and it could be no matter how determined he is bears pass rush will squash that against a not real good oline, wasn’t like his numbers were freakishly good vs dog shit falcons despite the big score. If you recall in week 1 when he stole a win from bears in second half Mack was flat out gassed after no preseason in the second half, bears d could very much be looking forward to getting little get back and making this game look like week 1 first half for the full 40.. another thing about week 1 was Nagy hadn’t quite figured out what he had in Cohen yet so pretty much ran Howard and even wasted 5 passes to him! That correction in itself outta make bears offense more sustainable for the whole game..
Ok so I’m still curious what ya’ll think but looks like I really sold myself while making this post!! Lol., I’m willing to hear opposing views to try and get me off bears tho.
I don’t know answer, and it could be no matter how determined he is bears pass rush will squash that against a not real good oline, wasn’t like his numbers were freakishly good vs dog shit falcons despite the big score. If you recall in week 1 when he stole a win from bears in second half Mack was flat out gassed after no preseason in the second half, bears d could very much be looking forward to getting little get back and making this game look like week 1 first half for the full 40.. another thing about week 1 was Nagy hadn’t quite figured out what he had in Cohen yet so pretty much ran Howard and even wasted 5 passes to him! That correction in itself outta make bears offense more sustainable for the whole game..
Ok so I’m still curious what ya’ll think but looks like I really sold myself while making this post!! Lol., I’m willing to hear opposing views to try and get me off bears tho.
austinhous
Pretty much a regular
Mariota owns a 105.4 QB rating in 13 games versus the NFC with 26 TDs and 7 INT. Titans went 9-3-1 ATS and O/U in those 13 games (8-0-1 ATS and 9-0 O/U scoring more than 16 points). Mariota passing touchdowns per game versus the NFC: 0,0,0,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,4,4,4. He has also scored a rushing touchdown in each of the Titans' first two games versus the NFC this season.
Titans/Giants o43 -103
Mariota TD passes o1½ +135
Titans/Giants o43 -103
Mariota TD passes o1½ +135
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Like that idea since none of us or the Vikings themselves have much clue who they are offensively or any idea what kind of score they will post?? Obviously spot says avoid maimi like the plague but in another week I’d have real doubts Vikings would score much off them. Not that fish defense can’t be had, they can, but I’ve seen them shut the occasional bad offense down and if we ignore talent level wouldn’t we say Vikings have proven to be just that many times against very average defenses?
I get why ppl gonna play minny, lot of good reasons to fade Miami, impossible not to look at viks and see they def have the talent to be a playoff team who could potentially be a scary wc for someone, I’ve read firing oc (whether deserved or not) usually leads to offensive uptick following week. But man I can’t trust them to win by more than a score. I feel pretty good they win and have teased them a few times but that gonna be it for me (And they far from my fav tease option cause while they should be the trust I had w them at some points this year totally gone!).
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
I see a ton of Bills love here on the boards, why?
I would think Shady is active but both he and Ivory are banged up. They are working with a patchwork oline that will have Josh Allen looking to run for his life more than he should. Foster has shown growth but outside of him there is Zay in the passing game (I would think Slay wins that battle) and little else. Allen is still progressing and will make that one terrible decision in the game....
Defensively the Bills have been solid, largely due to the fact that the line was able to keep the LBS pretty clean. Nobody is talking about the fact that we just lost our second best defender in Milano for the year- he was flying around making plays all season. Now they will be rotating in guys and evaluating talent... Edwards has shown promise but he is not a good cover lb, I could easily see Riddick eating them alive underneath. Blount is the type of runner that eats the Bills up this time of season, when the offense can't generate 1st downs and the defense gets left on the field. Remains to be seen if the Lion actually utilize him today, but he could be a sneaky prop play when he runs for 50+ 2ndh yards.
I would think Shady is active but both he and Ivory are banged up. They are working with a patchwork oline that will have Josh Allen looking to run for his life more than he should. Foster has shown growth but outside of him there is Zay in the passing game (I would think Slay wins that battle) and little else. Allen is still progressing and will make that one terrible decision in the game....
Defensively the Bills have been solid, largely due to the fact that the line was able to keep the LBS pretty clean. Nobody is talking about the fact that we just lost our second best defender in Milano for the year- he was flying around making plays all season. Now they will be rotating in guys and evaluating talent... Edwards has shown promise but he is not a good cover lb, I could easily see Riddick eating them alive underneath. Blount is the type of runner that eats the Bills up this time of season, when the offense can't generate 1st downs and the defense gets left on the field. Remains to be seen if the Lion actually utilize him today, but he could be a sneaky prop play when he runs for 50+ 2ndh yards.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I hate seeing you say that lex. I certainly respect your take on bills more than mine, I pay very little attention and i know you follow close.
For me if simple, they seem to be playing hard. Allen looks like he leaves it all out there. Quite frankly I think that be more than enough against a lions team who when they go to stadium will feel much like me some mornings this winter already when I’m thinkng “fukk this cold shit I rather stay in bed”, then I go mail it in for awhile to get some hours then be like “ok I had enough cold and wet, I’m leaving!”
stafford has a tight back, he will just love it not to mention he has like 1 wr left!! Long as bills give their typical home effort I think they win this and do it easy. If soft dome lions go to buffalo and want it more so freakin be it, they can have my money cause I don’t believe it for a minute.
For me if simple, they seem to be playing hard. Allen looks like he leaves it all out there. Quite frankly I think that be more than enough against a lions team who when they go to stadium will feel much like me some mornings this winter already when I’m thinkng “fukk this cold shit I rather stay in bed”, then I go mail it in for awhile to get some hours then be like “ok I had enough cold and wet, I’m leaving!”
stafford has a tight back, he will just love it not to mention he has like 1 wr left!! Long as bills give their typical home effort I think they win this and do it easy. If soft dome lions go to buffalo and want it more so freakin be it, they can have my money cause I don’t believe it for a minute.
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
I'm not on the Lions or anything, and last time I really thought they would lose was vs Jax so there's that. I'll likely make a 2ndh play as I've been hitting the Bills related ones frequently. Just have to point out the Milano loss as I haven't seen it acknowledged. Outside of Tre White he was the best defender. Speaking of Tre I would think after Robbie got the best of him last week he'll be raring to go vs Golliday. Outside of Allen it's the matchup I'm most excited about watching as I think they are both great players.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Feel better you not against them!!
I can’t worry about them not having a guy I honestly didn’t know mattered! I’m pretty ignorant about your squad this year other than thinking the d seems to be well coached, Allen might be raw but def has a edge to him I like, and they seem to play hard when I see any of them.
Call it so little respect for lions in general but even more so coming into this environment. I’d be pretty shocked if lions play good football. If ya’ll corner can just limit goladay where the hell else stafford gonna go to move chains? You see lions leading wrs last week when zona took away golladay (who I agree pretty special but still learning to be a focal point of a d)?
If I can get 3 tds out your club I’d feel pretty good, figure lions will give them one or 2 short fields if not a score off some kinda sloppy turnover. Allen outta make enough plays to keep offense on field long enough lions offense shivering on sideline and the defense making business decisions to pass up hits.
Honestly if it doesn’t go that way I’d have to give fat Matt a ton of credit which I have no interest doing!!
austinhous
Pretty much a regular
Kyle Shanahan 1-9 in division matchups. The only victory came against Rams' backups in the last week of the 2017 regular season, after the Rams clinched the NFC West the week before and were resting their starters for the playoffs.
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
I think context is poor. He is solid, inherited mess.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
That Seattle/San Fran game just screams stay the hell away. I think Seattle prob wins but would it shock me if niners got them? Not really. These div games played real close together even tougher than the garden variety imo.. I know 1st one was a blowout so the stats prob meaningless but shanny and Mullins did figure out a way to throw for 400+. I know prob lot of garbage so what yards in there but what if during course of game shanny found something he liked to exploit and has now game planned the shit out of isolating that matchup or whatever it was where they found success..
Agree w Johnny that shanny stat will get better, I think he can gameplan circles around Pete and staff.
Agree w Johnny that shanny stat will get better, I think he can gameplan circles around Pete and staff.
austinhous
Pretty much a regular
With limited options at 4PM I wanted to like the 49ers really bad as the home dog, just from an entertainment standpoint. Instead I'll probably ignore that game, stay away like you said, and just watch Pats/Steelers like the rest of the nation.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I’m sure I’ve made worse bets wanting action. If ya had to I’d prob go San Fran w the points too but no confidence at all. I know I did some dumb contest where I had to pick bunch of straight up winners and only one I really felt bad about was Seattle, kept looking at that one thinkng “that the one gonna fuck me”. Lol.
No worry bout forcing action for me today, got roped into helping friend move so doubt I see much of any. League annoys me so bad I don’t even mind. I like my bets even tho no dogs (Browns was my only one this week) I’ll check the phone every now and again and see how it going,, lol.,
My whole card:
Bills-2.5
Indy-3
Bears-5
Raiders/cincy over 46
Got lucky and took rams -9, no clue wentz was gonna be out, I just thought no way that line shouldn’t be dd so grabbed and teased down to -3..
Gl everyone
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
No Shady or Ivory today, although Murphy is a more than capable back who looked great in the preseason. Happy to see the kid get a shot at heavy touches he could be the future#1
rambler882
Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
SF line drop + majority of people I see posting are on them.....what are the primary reasons beyond "sleepy spot" for Seattle?
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
- 3rd & 1 at CLE 6
(5:29 - 4th) P.Lindsay left end to CLV 6 for no gain (T.Coley). - 4th & 1 at CLE 6
(5:29 - 4th) (Field Goal formation) PENALTY on DEN, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at CLV 6 - No Play. - 4th & 6 at CLE 11
(4:35 - 4th) Brandon McManus 29 Yd Field Goal
austinhous
Pretty much a regular
Mariota just got into the end zone on the QB sneak from the 1 yard line. But the refs (incorrectly) marked him short. Mariota was lined +375 to score a rushing TD today. Huge kick in the nuts if you were holding that +375 ticket!
austinhous
Pretty much a regular
what it do
austinhous
Pretty much a regular
Pacific time zone hosting Eastern time zone on SNF+MNF hasn't been pretty, esp when EST is catching more than 3 points
austinhous
Pretty much a regular
I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure the preseason line for this game was Saints +5.5. Right now, after the Rams loss last night, the situation now stands that New Orleans needs two more wins to capture the No. 1 seed. They can lose one of their final three games, finish 13-3 and still capture the No. 1 seed, no matter what the Rams do in their final two games. So if the Saints handle their business tonight, it becomes just like 2009 where they clinch the #1 seed next week and rest the starters vs Panthers W17. But if that's the case, how do you explain this:
If the Saints have nothing to play for in W17, that's a hell of a number to lay.
Sammy Meatballs
Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
IT is a high number albeit from a QB who the league has figured out cannot complete a pass in the red zone with a lame duck coach.
Rivera is old school. HIs time as coach is finished in the league.
panthers secondary is atroocious-
Newton is erratic and wild with his passes-- He throws balls high wide to the right etc--
Teddy B is twice the QB Newton is and would expose him by -10.5 easy
austinhous
Pretty much a regular
Garbage
That's not even being fair enough to garbage, austinhous.
It's WAY worse than garbage.
Sammy Meatballs
Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
Everything that ppl do not agree with does not have to be garbage. Not having tolerance for others opinions leads to social decay.
My opinions are my opinions and are just as valid as anyones regardless if you agree with them or do not--
Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
He's a top 3 coach. He's been dealt an awful hand and bad luck. Team never quits and the offense somehow miraculously moves the ball.
He was 6-1 in games that Jimmy G finished and the Niners just beat a playoff team with undrafted starting 3rd string QB/RBs.
I'd take him every day over McVay who runs one set/formation and has a dream team squad in terms of talent.
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